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Advanced Excel for Scientific Data Analysis 1st Edition
Robert De Levie Digital Instant Download
Author(s): Robert de Levie
ISBN(s): 9780195170894, 019517089X
Edition: 1
File Details: PDF, 11.70 MB
Year: 2004
Language: english
 New Text

Advanced Excel®
for Scientific Data Analysis
This page intentionally left blank
Advanced Excel®
for Scientific Data Analysis

Robert de Levie

OXFORD
UNIVERSITY PRESS

2004
OXFORD
UNIVERSITY PRESS

Oxford New York

Auckland Bangkok Buenos Aires Cape Town Chennai
Dar es Salaam Delhi Hong Kong Istanbul Karachi Kolkata
Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Mumbai Nairobi
Sao Paulo Shanghai Taipei Tokyo Toronto

Copyright © 2004 by Robert de Levie

Published by Oxford University Press, Inc.
198 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016
www.oup.com

Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means,
electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise,
without the prior permission of Oxford University Press.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

De Levie, Robert.
Advanced Excel for scientific data analysis I Robert de Levie.
p.cm.
Includes index.
ISBN 0-19-517089-X (cloth); 0-19-515275-1 (pbk.)
I. Chemistry, Analytic-r. ~a processing. 2. Electronic spreadsheets. 3. Microsoft Excel
(Computer file) l. Title.
QD75.4.E4D432003
530'.0285-dc21 2003053590

Disclaimer
Neither the author nor the publisher of this book are associated with Microsoft Corporation.

While Oxford University Press takes great care to ensure accuracy and quality of these mate-
rials, all material is provided without any warranty whatsoever, including, but not limited to,
the implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.

Excel and Visual Basic are either registered trademarks or trademarks of Microsoft Corpora-
tion in the United States andlor other countries. The product names and services are used
throughout this book in editorial fashion only and for the benefit of their companies. No such
use, or the use of any trade name, is intended to convey endorsement or other affiliation with
the book.

9 8 7 6 5 432 1
Printed in the United States of America
on acid-free paper
 Preface
This book will take you, my reader, beyond the standard fare of Excel. This is
why the title starts with the word "advanced". This book is not a primer, and famili-
arity with Excel is presumed. You will learn how to make the spreadsheet do your
bidding, not so much by prettying up its display, but by exploiting its considerable
computational prowess to the fullest, and by adding to it with custom functions and
custom macros where necessary. If Excel's built-in least squares facilities don't
provide the covariance, don't handle statistical weights, don't supply orthogonal
polynomials, or lack special tools for equidistant data, this book will show you how
to make those tools. If Excel's fast Fourier transform routine is cumbersome, replace
it, and go from there to perform time-frequency analysis. If you want to use the
Runge-Kutta method, write a custom function to do so. If you need a deconvolution,
there are several macros to perform it, in addition to the direct spreadsheet approach.
The focus of this book is on the numerical analysis of experimental data such as
are encountered in the physical sciences. Data analysis is nowadays often performed
with one of two approaches, least squares or Fourier transformation, which therefore
form the core of this book, occupying chapters 2 through 6. Sometimes, theory does
not furnish explicit expressions for our models, in which case the experiments must
be compared with the results of numerical simulations, as briefly discussed in chap-
ter 7. Then follows a short discussion of macros, while the final chapters round out
the book with an annotated tour of its custom macros.
The material is illustrated with practical examples. In cases where the back-
ground of some of the methods used may be hard to find, short explanations have
been included. Throughout this book, the objective is to make math a convenient
scientific tool rather than an obstacle. You should know what a square root means,
and have access to a tool (such as a table oflogarithms, a slide rule, a calculator, or a
computer) to find it, rather than have to learn (as yours truly once did) how to evalu-
ate it by hand, with pencil and paper. That, incidentally, turned out to be a thor-
oughly useless skill, and was promptly forgotten. It is useful as well as intellectually
satisfying to know how to design an engine, but it is not needed for safe driving. In
the same sense, you need not know all theorems, conjectures, and lemmas underly-
ing your mathematical tools in order to reap their benefits, as long as you understand
what you are doing. Where, nonetheless, math is displayed in this book, often at the
beginning of a chapter or section, it is used as a convenient shorthand for those who
can read its precise and compact language, but it seldom requires you to execute the
corresponding mathematical operation. In other words, you can skip the math if,
otherwise, it would scare you away. On second reading, the math may not even look
so frightening any more. At any rate, there are many more figures in this book than
equations.
*****
Books are as much defined by what they are not as by what they are, and a pro-
spective reader should know the score. This book offers no templates, since the idea
is not to provide canned solutions but, instead, to illustrate how solutions can be
created. While the macros listed in this book have a fairly general usefulness and
applicability, they are primarily meant as examples, and you are encouraged to
 R. de Levie, Advanced Excel for scientific data analysis

modifY them for your own purposes, and even to scavenge them for useful ideas and
parts.
Furthermore, this book is neither an introduction to Excel or VBA, nor a text-
book on the mathematical basis of scientific data analysis. There are already some
good introductions to scientific uses of Excel on the market, and this book will build
on them. There are also numerous books on VBA (which stands for Visual Basic for
Applications, the computer language used in Excel custom functions and macros)
that go into much more detail than could possibly be incorporated here, and many
excellent books on statistics, on Fourier transformation, and on numerical simula-
tion, the three main scientific applications discussed in the present book. Recom-
mended books on each of these subjects are listed at the end of the relevant chapters.
What the present book offers instead is an attempt at synthesis of these various
areas, illustrating how many numerical problems can be fitted comfortably in the
convenient, user-friendly format of the spreadsheet. As such, this book should be
suitable for use by any scientist already familiar with Excel. Because it retains its
primary focus on science, it can also be used as text for an introductory course in
scientific data analysis, especially when combined with student projects.
While an effort has been made to make this book as broadly useful as possible,
and to incorporate examples from different areas, my own background as a physical
and analytical chemist will unavoidably show. Readers who are not chemists will
still recognize the general, more widely applicable approach and features involved in
many of these examples.
*****
Idiosyncratic notation has been kept to a minimum, with three exceptions. The
notation 2 (3) 17 is used as convenient shorthand for the arithmetic progression 2, 5,
8, 11, 14, 17 (i.e., starting at 2, with increment 3, ending at 17). The linking symbol
u is used to indicate when keys should be depressed simultaneously, as in AltuFll or
CtrluAltuDel. (Since the linking sign is not on your standard keyboard, you will not
be tempted to press it, as you might with a plus sign.) And the symbol 0 will iden-
tifY deconvolution, complementing the more usual symbol <8l for convolution.
*****
This book can be read at several levels. It can serve as a brief, illustrated intro-
duction to least squares, Fourier transformation, and digital simulation, as used in the
physical sciences. For those interested in simply using its macros (which provide a
useful set of auxiliary tools for solving a few standard scientific problems on a
spreadsheet), it illustrates their modes of operation, their strengths, and their defi-
ciencies. And for those who want the spreadsheet to solve other scientific problems,
the fully documented macros can serve as examples and possible starting points for
novel applications.
Here is how this book is organized. After the introduction, three chapters are de-
voted to least squares methods, used here almost exclusively as a data-fitting tool.
Least squares methods are nowadays used routinely for describing experimental data
in terms of model parameters, for extracting data from complex data sets, for finding
their derivatives, and for a host of other manipulations of experimental data, and
chapters 2 through 4 illustrate some of these applications. The guiding principle has
been to relegate most of the mathematical manipulations to macros and, instead, to
focus on how to use these tools correctly.
Preface

Then follows a chapter on Fourier transformation, a cornerstone of modem data

analysis as well as of modem scientific instrumentation, and a companion chapter on
methods for handling related problems, such as convolution, deconvolution, and
time-frequency analysis. Next is a chapter on the numerical solution of ordinary
differential equations. All of these can be, and are, valid topics of entire books and
treatises, and we here merely scratch the surface and sniff their smells. The final
chapters get the reader started on writing Excel macros, and provide a number of
specific examples. Readers of my earlier book on this subject, How to Use Excel in
Analytical Chemistry, Cambridge University Press, 2001, will of course find some
inevitable overlap, although in the present volume I have restricted the topics to
those that are of most general interest, and treated these in much greater depth.
Only relatively few owners of Microsoft Office realize that they have on their
computer a modem, compilable, high-level language, VBA, ready to be used, a
powerful computational engine raring to go, complete with the associated graphical
tools to visualize the results. With so much power under the hood, why not push the
pedal and see how far you can go?
*****
Numerous friends, colleagues, and students have contributed to this book, cor-
rected some of its ambiguities, and made it more intelligible. I am especially grateful
for invaluable help on many occasions to Bill Craig; for their many helpful com-
ments, especially on the chapters on least squares, to Whitney King, Panos Nikitas,
Carl Salter, and Brian Tissue; for commenting on the chapter on Fourier transforma-
tion to Peter Griffiths and Jim de Haseth; for valuable comments on deconvolution
to Peter Jansson; for letting me use his elegant equidistant least squares macro to
Philip Barak; and for sending me experimental data that are so much more realistic
than simulations to Harry Frank, Edwin Meyer, Caryn Sanford Seney, and Carl
Salter. I gladly acknowledge the various copyright holders for permission to quote
from their writings or to use their published data, and I am grateful to William T.
Vetterling of Numerical Recipes Software for permission to incorporate some pro-
grams from the Numerical Recipes in the sample macros. As always, my wife
Jolanda helped and supported me in innumerable ways.
*****
This book was printed from files made on a standard personal computer. All text
was written in Word; all figures (including those on the front and back cover) were
made with Excel. Special graphing software was neither needed nor used. If so de-
sired, you can read this book by restricting yourself to the passages printed in (rela-
tively) large type, and the figures, even though that would be somewhat like learning
to swim or ride a bicycle from a correspondence course. The only additional ingredi-
ent you will need for some of the exercises (in smaller print), apart from a computer
with Excel version 5 or (preferably) later, is the set of custom macros in the Macro-
Bundle, which can be downloaded as Word text files from the web site oup-
usa.org/advancedexcel, and are listed in chapters 9 through 11. These macros are
most conveniently accessible through an extra toolbar or, where viewing space is at a
premium, as a menu item. The above web site also contains a SampleData file so
that you need not type in the numerical values of the examples, and a SampleMacros
file from which you can copy the macros and functions used in the exercises, and
even a short "Getting up to speed" exercise to help you recall your Excel skills. The
software requirements are spelled out in section A.9
 R. de Levie, Advanced Excel for scientific data analysis

It is well-nigh impossible to write a book of this type and length without some
typos and even outright errors, and the present volume will be no exception. I will be
grateful to receive comments and suggested corrections at my e-mail address: rde-
[email protected]. I intend to post corrections and updates on the above web site.
Copyright credits
The following copyright holders graciously provided permission to use data or
verbatim quotes. Data from Y. Bard in Nonlinear Parameter Estimation, copyright
© 1974, Academic Press, are used by permission. Data from L. M. Schwartz & R. 1.
Gelb are reprinted with permission from Anal. Chem. 56 (1984) 1487, copyright
1984 American Chemical Society. Likewise, data from 1. 1. Leary & E. B. Messick
are reprinted with permission from Anal. Chem. 57 (1985) 956, copyright 1985
American Chemical Society. Data from R. D. Verma published in J. Chem. Phys. 32
(1960) 738 are used with permission of the American Institute of Physics. Data from
W. H. Sachs are reprinted with permission from Technometrics 18 (1976) 161, copy-
right 1976 by the American Statistical Association, all rights reserved. Data from G.
N. Wilkinson in Biochem. J. 80 (1961) 324 are reproduced with permission, © the
Biochemical Society. Data from G. R. Bruce & P. S. Gill in J. Chem. Educ. 76
(1999) 805, R. W. Schwenz & W. F. Polik in J. Chem. Educ. 76 (1999) 1302, S.
Bluestone in J. Chem. Educ. 78 (2001) 215, M.-H. Kim, M. S. Kim & S.-Y. Ly in J.
Chem. Educ. 78 (2001) 238, are used with permission from the Journal of Chemical
Education; Division of Chemical Education, Inc. Permission to quote data from E. S.
Eppright et aI., World Rev. Nutrition Dietetics 14 (1972) 269 was granted by its
copyright holder, S. Karger AG, Basel. Data from the 2000 book Modern Analytical
Chemistry by D. Harvey are reproduced with permission of The McGraw-Hill Com-
panies. Finally, material from N. R. Draper & H. Smith in the 2 nd edition of their
book Applied Regression Analysis, copyright © 1998; from D. M. Bates & D. G.
Watts, Nonlinear Regression Analysis and Application, copyright © 1988; and from
K. Conners, Chemical Kinetics, the Study of Reaction Rates in Solution, copyright ©
1990; is used by permission of John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
About the author
Robert de Levie is the author of more than 150 papers in analytical and electro-
chemistry, of an early Spreadsheet Workbook for Quantitative Chemical Analysis,
McGraw-Hill, 1992; of a textbook on the Principles of Quantitative Chemical
Analysis, McGraw-Hill 1997; of an Oxford Chemistry Primer on Aqueous Acid-Base
Equilibria and Titrations, Oxford University Press, 1999; and, most recently, of
How to Use Excel in Analytical Chemistry, Cambridge University Press, 2001. He
can be reached at rdelevie @ bowdoin.edu.

He was born and raised in the Netherlands, earned his Ph.D. in physical chemis-
try at the University of Amsterdam, was a postdoctoral fellow with Paul Delahay in
Baton Rouge LA, and for 34 years taught analytical chemistry and electrochemistry
at Georgetown University. For ten of those years he was the US editor of the Journal
of Electroanalytical Chemistry. Now an emeritus professor, he lives on Orr's Island,
and is associated with Bowdoin College in nearby Brunswick ME. He can be
reached at [email protected].
 Contents
1 Survey ofExcel 1
1.1 Spreadsheet basics 1
1.2 Making 2-D graphs 4
1.3 Making 3-D surface graphs 10
1.4 Making surface maps 13
1.5 Making movies 16
1.6 Printing, copying, linking & embedding 18
1.7 Setting up the spreadsheet 20
1.7.1 Data Analysis Toolpak 20
1.7.2 Solver 20
1.7.3 VBA Help File 21
1.7.4 Additional macros 21
1.7.5 Additional files 22
1.7.6 Commercial tools 22
1.7.7 Choosing the default settings 23
1.8 Importing data 25
1.9 Error messages 25
1.10 Help 26
1.11 Functions, subroutines & macros 26
1.11.1 Custom functions 27
1.11.2 Custom subroutines & macros 28
1.12 An example: interpolation 29
1.13 Handling the math 37
1.13.1 Complex numbers 37
1.13.2 Matrices 38
1.14 Handling the funnies 40
1.14.1 The binomial coefficient 40
1.14.2 The exponential error function complement 41
1.15 Algorithmic accuracy 44
1.16 Mismatches between Excel and VBA 49
1.17 Summary 51
1.18 F or further reading 52

2 Simple linear least squares 53

2.1 Repeat measurements 54
 R. de Levie, Advanced Excel for scientific data analysis

2.2 Fitting data to a proportionality 56

2.3 LinEst 58
2.4 Regression 60
2.5 LS 62
2.6 Trendline 64
2.7 Fitting data to a straight line 65
2.8 Simple propagation of imprecision 66
2.9 Interdependent parameters 68
2.10 Centering 71
2.11 Extrapolating the ideal gas law 76
2.12 Calibration curves 80
2.13 Standard addition 83
2.14 The intersection of two straight lines 86
2.15 Computing the boiling point of water 91
2.16 Phantom relations 92
2.17 Summary 96
2.18 For further reading 97

3 Further linear least squares 98

3.1 Fitting data to a polynomial 98
3.2 Fitting data to a parabola 99
3.3 The iodine vapor spectrum 100
3.4 The intersection of two parabolas 104
3.5 Multiparameter fitting 107
3.6 The infrared spectrum ofH35 CI 107
3.7 Spectral mixture analysis 111
3.8 How many adjustable parameters? 113
3.9 The standard deviation of the fit 115
3.10 The F-test 115
3.11 Orthogonal polynomials 117
3.12 Gas-chromatographic analysis of ethanol 122
3.13 Raman spectrometric analysis of ethanol 125
3.14 Heat evolution during cement hardening 131
3.15 Least squares for equidistant data 135
3.16 Weighted least squares 140
3.17 An exponential decay 144
3.18 Enzyme kinetics 144
3.19 Fitting data to a Lorentzian 148
3.20 Miscellany 150
3.20.1 The boiling point of water 150
3.20.2 The vapor pressure of water 151
Contents

3.20.3 Fitting data to a high-order polynomial 151

3.21 Summary 153
3.22 F or further reading 156

4 Nonlinear least squares 158

4.1 Cosmic microwave background radiation 161
4.2 The 12 potential energy vs. distance profile 165
4.3 Titrating an acid with a strong base 169
4.4 Conductometric titration of an acid mixture 176
4.5 Fitting a luminescence decay 180
4.6 Fitting a curve with multiple peaks 182
4.7 Fitting a multi-component spectrum
with wavenumber-shifted constituents 187
4.8 Constraints 192
4.9 Fitting a curve through fixed points 193
4.10 Fitting lines through a common point 194
4.11 Fitting a set of curves 198
4.12 Fitting a discontinuous curve 201
4.13 Piecewise fitting a continuous curve 203
4.14 Enzyme kinetics, once more 205
4.15 The Lorentzian revisited 206
4.16 Linear extrapolation 207
4.17 Guarding against false minima 208
4.18 General least squares fit to a straight line 213
4.19 General least squares fit to a complex quantity 217
4.20 Miscellany 219
4.20.1 Viscosity vs. temperature and pressure 219
4.20.2 Potentiometric titration of a diprotic base 221
4.20.3 Analyzing light from a variable star 224
4.20.4 The growth of a bacterial colony 225
4.20.5 Using NIST data sets 226
4.21 Summary 227
4.22 F or further reading 229
5 Fourier transformation 230
5.1 Sines and cosines 230
5.2 Square waves and pulses 235
5.3 Aliasing and sampling 239
5.4 Leakage 242
5.5 Uncertainty 243
5.6 Filtering 245
5.7 Differentiation 255
 R. de Levie, Advanced Excel for scientific data analysis

5.8 Interpolation 261

5.9 Data compression 265
5.10 Analysis of the tides 268
5.11 Summary 277
5.12 F or further reading 279

6 Convolution, deconvolution,
and time-frequency analysis 280
6.1 Time-dependent filtering. 280
6.2 Convolution of large data sets 285
6.3 Unfiltering 291
6.4 Convolution by Fourier transformation 295
6.5 Deconvolution by Fourier transformation 300
6.6 Iterative van Cittert deconvolution 311
6.7 Iterative deconvolution using Solver 321
6.8 Deconvolution by parameterization 325
6.9 Time-frequency analysis 331
6.10 The echolocation pulse of a bat 335
6.11 Summary 337
6.12 For further reading 338

7 Numerical integration of
ordinary differential equations 339
7.1 The explicit Euler method 340
7.2 The semi-explicit Euler method 347
7.3 U sing custom functions 350
7.4 Extreme parameter values 354
7.5 The explicit Runge-Kutta method 356
7.6 The Lotka oscillator 1 361
7.7 The Lotka oscillator 2 365
7.8 The Lotka oscillator 3 366
7.9 Stability 368
7.10 Chaos 372
7.11 Summary 374
7.12 F or further reading 375

8 Write your own macros 377

8.1 Reading the contents of a cell 378
Contents

8.2 Reading & manipulating a cell block 381

8.3 Numerical precision 384
8.4 Communication boxes 385
8.4.1 Message boxes 385
8.4.2 Input boxes 386
8.5 Case study 1: the propagation of imprecision 390
8.6 Case study 2: bisection 392
8.7 Case study 3: Fourier transformation 395
8.7.1 A starter macro 395
8.7.2 Comments & embellishments 399
8.8 Case study 4: specifying a graph 404
8.9 Case study 5: sorting through permutations 408
8.10 Case study 6: raising the bar 412
8.1 0.1 Adding a menu item 413
8.10.2 Adding a toolbar 415
8.11 Tools for macro writing 416
8.11.1 Editing tools 416
8.11.2 The macro recorder 417
8.12 Troubleshooting 418
8.13 Summary 420
8.14 For further reading 422

9 Macros for least squares & for

the propagation of imprecision 423
9.1 General comments 424
9.2 LS 426
9.3 LSPoly 436
9.4 LSMulti 444
9.5 LSPermute 452
LLSS 459
9.6 Ortho 460
9.7 ELS 469
9.8 WLS 481
9.9 SolverAid 491
9.10 Propagation 500
9.11 Matrix operations 509
Invert 510
Multiply 512
Transpose 512
 R. de Levie, Advanced Excel for scientific data analysis

10 Fourier transform macros 513

10.1 Fourier transfonnation 513
FT 518
10.2 Direct (de)convo1ution 519
10.3 Fourier transfonn (de)convolution 523
10.4 Iterative deconvolution 529
10.5 Time-frequency analysis 540
10.6 Semi-integration & semi-differentiation 544

11 Miscellaneous macros 549

11.1 Tenns & conditions 549
11.2 Insert a toolbar 551
11.3 Insert a menu 559
11.4 Movie demos 566
11.5 Lagrange interpolation 572
11.6 SolverS can 573
11.6.1 Calling Solver with VBA 574
11.6.2 Programming details 575
11.6.3 Possible extensions 576
11.7 Mapper 582
11.8 RootFinder 596

Appendix 599
A.I The basic spreadsheet operations 599
A.2 Some common mathematical functions 600
A.3 Trigonometric and related functions 602
A.4 Some engineering functions 602
A.5 Functions involving complex numbers 603
A.6 Matrix operations 604
A.7 Excel error messages 605
A.8 Some shortcut keystrokes for pc & Mac 605
A.9 Installation requirements & suggestions 607

Epilogue 608

Index 610
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By ALLAN DANZIG

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 It has happened a hundred times in the long
history
of Earth—and, sooner or later, will happen
again!

Everyone—all the geologists, at any rate—had known about the

Kiowa Fault for years. That was before there was anything very
interesting to know about it. The first survey of Colorado traced its
course north and south in the narrow valley of Kiowa Creek about
twenty miles east of Denver; it extended south to the Arkansas
River. And that was about all even the professionals were interested
in knowing. There was never so much as a landslide to bring the
Fault to the attention of the general public.
It was still a matter of academic interest when in the late '40s
geologists speculated on the relationship between the Kiowa Fault
and the Conchas Fault farther south, in New Mexico, and which
followed the Pecos as far south as Texas.
Nor was there much in the papers a few years later when it was
suggested that the Niobrara Fault (just inside and roughly parallel to
the eastern border of Wyoming) was a northerly extension of the
Kiowa. By the mid sixties it was definitely established that the three
Faults were in fact a single line of fissure in the essential rock,
stretching almost from the Canadian border well south of the New
Mexico-Texas line.
It is not really surprising that it took so long to figure out the
connection. The population of the states affected was in places as
low as five people per square mile! The land was so dry it seemed
impossible that it could ever be used except for sheep-farming.
It strikes us today as ironic that from the late '50s there was grave
concern about the level of the water table throughout the entire
area.

The even more ironic solution to the problem began in the summer
of 1973. It had been a particularly hot and dry August, and the
Forestry Service was keeping an anxious eye out for the fires it knew
it could expect. Dense smoke was reported rising above a virtually
uninhabited area along Black Squirrel Creek, and a plane was sent
out for a report.
The report was—no fire at all. The rising cloud was not smoke, but
dust. Thousands of cubic feet of dry earth rising lazily on the
summer air. Rock slides, they guessed; certainly no fire. The Forestry
Service had other worries at the moment, and filed the report.
But after a week had gone by, the town of Edison, a good twenty
miles away from the slides, was still complaining of the dust. Springs
was going dry, too, apparently from underground disturbances. Not
even in the Rockies could anyone remember a series of rock slides
as bad as this.
Newspapers in the mountain states gave it a few inches on the front
page; anything is news in late August. And the geologists became
interested. Seismologists were reporting unusual activity in the area,
tremors too severe to be rock slides. Volcanic activity? Specifically, a
dust volcano? Unusual, they knew, but right on the Kiowa Fault—
could be.
Labor Day crowds read the scientific conjectures with late summer
lassitude. Sunday supplements ran four-color artists' conceptions of
the possible volcano. "Only Active Volcano in U. S.?" demanded the
headlines, and some papers even left off the question mark.
It may seem odd that the simplest explanation was practically not
mentioned. Only Joseph Schwartzberg, head geographer of the
Department of the Interior, wondered if the disturbance might not
be a settling of the Kiowa Fault. His suggestion was mentioned on
page nine or ten of the Monday newspapers (page 27 of the New
York Times). The idea was not nearly so exciting as a volcano, even
a lava-less one, and you couldn't draw a very dramatic picture of it.
To excuse the other geologists, it must be said that the Kiowa Fault
had never acted up before. It never sidestepped, never jiggled,
never, never produced the regular shows of its little sister out in
California, which almost daily bounced San Francisco or Los Angeles,
or some place in between. The dust volcano was on the face of it a
more plausible theory.
Still, it was only a theory. It had to be proved. As the tremors grew
bigger, along with the affected area, as several towns including
Edison were shaken to pieces by incredible earthquakes, whole bus-
and plane-loads of geologists set out for Colorado, without even
waiting for their university and government department to approve
budgets.
They found, of course, that Schwartzberg had been perfectly correct.

They found themselves on the scene of what was fast becoming the
most violent and widespread earthquake North America—probably
the world—has ever seen in historic times. To describe it in the
simplest terms, land east of the Fault was settling, and at a
precipitous rate.
Rock scraped rock with a whining roar. Shuddery as a squeaky piece
of chalk raked across a blackboard, the noise was deafening. The
surfaces of the land east and west of the Fault seemed no longer to
have any relation to each other. To the west, tortured rock reared
into cliffs. East, where sharp reports and muffled wheezes told of
continued buckling and dropping, the earth trembled downward.
Atop the new cliffs, which seemed to grow by sudden inches from
heaving rubble, dry earth fissured and trembled, sliding acres at a
time to fall, smoking, into the bucking, heaving bottom of the
depression.
There the devastation was even more thorough, if less spectacular.
Dry earth churned like mud, and rock shards weighing tons bumped
and rolled about like pebbles as they shivered and cracked into
pebbles themselves. "It looks like sand dancing in a child's sieve,"
said the normally impassive Schwartzberg in a nationwide broadcast
from the scene of disaster. "No one here has ever seen anything like
it." And the landslip was growing, north and south along the Fault.
"Get out while you can," Schwartzberg urged the population of the
affected area. "When it's over you can come back and pick up the
pieces." But the band of scientists who had rallied to his leadership
privately wondered if there would be any pieces.
The Arkansas River, at Avondale and North Avondale, was sluggishly
backing north into the deepening trough. At the rate things were
going, there might be a new lake the entire length of El Paso and
Pueblo Counties. And, warned Schwartzberg, this might only be the
beginning.
By 16 September the landslip had crept down the Huerfano River
past Cedarwood. Avondale, North Avondale and Boone had totally
disappeared. Land west of the Fault was holding firm, though
Denver had recorded several small tremors; everywhere east of the
Fault, to almost twenty miles away, the now-familiar lurch and
steady fall had already sent several thousand Coloradans scurrying
for safety.
All mountain climbing was prohibited on the Eastern Slope because
of the danger of rock slides from minor quakes. The geologists went
home to wait.
There wasn't much to wait for. The news got worse and worse. The
Platte River, now, was creating a vast mud puddle where the town of
Orchard had been. Just below Masters, Colorado, the river leaped
70-foot cliffs to add to the heaving chaos below. And the cliffs were
higher every day as the land beneath them groaned downward in
mile-square gulps.
As the Fault moved north and south, new areas quivered into
unwelcome life. Fields and whole mountainsides moved with
deceptive sloth down, down. They danced "like sand in a sieve"; dry,
they boiled into rubble. Telephone lines, railroad tracks, roads
snapped and simply disappeared. Virtually all east-west land
communication was suspended and the President declared a national
emergency.

By 23 September the Fault was active well into Wyoming on the

north, and rapidly approaching the border of New Mexico to the
south. Trinchera and Branson were totally evacuated, but even so
the over-all death toll had risen above 1,000.
Away to the east the situation was quiet but even more ominous.
Tremendous fissures opened up perpendicular to the Fault, and a
general subsidence of the land was noticeable well into Kansas and
Nebraska. The western borders of these states, and soon of the
Dakotas and Oklahoma as well, were slowly sinking.
On the actual scene of the disaster (or the scenes; it is impossible to
speak of anything this size in the singular) there was a horrifying
confusion. Prairie and hill cracked open under intolerable strains as
the land shuddered downward in gasps and leaps. Springs burst to
the surface in hot geysers and explosions of steam.
The downtown section of North Platte, Nebraska, dropped eight feet,
just like that, on the afternoon of 4 October. "We must remain calm,"
declared the Governor of Nebraska. "We must sit this thing out. Be
assured that everything possible is being done." But what could be
done, with his state dropping straight down at a mean rate of a foot
a day?
The Fault nicked off the south-east corner of Montana. It worked its
way north along the Little Missouri. South, it ripped past Roswell,
New Mexico, and tore down the Pecos toward Texas. All the upper
reaches of the Missouri were standing puddles by now, and the Red
River west of Paris, Texas, had begun to run backward.
Soon the Missouri began slowly slipping away westward over the
slowly churning land. Abandoning its bed, the river spread
uncertainly across farmland and prairie, becoming a sea of mud
beneath the sharp new cliffs which rose in rending line, ever taller as
the land continued to sink, almost from Canada to the Mexican
border. There were virtually no floods, in the usual sense. The water
moved too slowly, spread itself with no real direction or force. But
the vast sheets of sluggish water and jelly-like mud formed death-
traps for the countless refugees now streaming east.
Perhaps the North Platte disaster had been more than anyone could
take. 193 people had died in that one cave-in. Certainly by 7
October it had to be officially admitted that there was an exodus of
epic proportion. Nearly two million people were on the move, and
the U. S. was faced with a gigantic wave of refugees. Rails, roads
and air-lanes were jammed with terrified hordes who had left
everything behind to crowd eastward.
All through October hollow-eyed motorists flocked into Tulsa,
Topeka, Omaha, Sioux Falls and Fargo. St. Louis was made
distributing center for emergency squads which flew everywhere
with milk for babies and dog food for evacuating pets. Gasoline
trucks boomed west to meet the demand for gas, but once inside
the "zone of terror," as the newspapers now called it, they found
their route blocked by eastbound cars on the wrong side of the road.
Shops left by their fleeing owners were looted by refugees from
further west; an American Airlines plane was wrecked by a mob of
would-be passengers in Bismarck, North Dakota. Federal and State
troops were called out, but moving two million people was not to be
done in an orderly way.
And still the landslip grew larger. The new cliffs gleamed in the
autumn sunshine, growing higher as the land beneath them
continued its inexorable descent.
On 21 October, at Lubbock, Texas, there was a noise variously
described as a hollow roar, a shriek and a deep musical vibration like
a church bell. It was simply the tortured rock of the substrata giving
way. The second phase of the national disaster was beginning.

The noise traveled due east at better than 85 miles per hour. In its
wake the earth to the north "just seemed to collapse on itself like a
punctured balloon," read one newspaper report. "Like a cake that's
failed," said a Texarkana housewife who fortunately lived a block
south of Thayer Street, where the fissure raced through. There was
a sigh and a great cloud of dust, and Oklahoma subsided at the
astounding rate of about six feet per hour.
At Biloxi, on the Gulf, there had been uneasy shufflings under foot all
day. "Not tremors, exactly," said the captain of a fishing boat which
was somehow to ride out the coming flood, "but like as if the land
wanted to be somewhere else."
Everyone in doomed Biloxi would have done well to have been
somewhere else that evening. At approximately 8:30 p.m. the town
shuddered, seemed to rise a little like the edge of a hall carpet
caught in a draft, and sank. So did the entire Mississippi and
Alabama coast, at about the same moment. The tidal wave which
was to gouge the center from the U. S. marched on the land.
From the north shore of Lake Ponchartrain to the Appalachicola River
in Florida, the Gulf coast simply disappeared. Gulfport, Biloxi, Mobile,
Pensacola, Panama City: 200 miles of shoreline vanished, with over
two and a half million people. An hour later a wall of water had
swept over every town from Dothan, Alabama, to Bogalusa on the
Louisiana-Mississippi border.
"We must keep panic from our minds," said the Governor of
Alabama in a radio message delivered from a hastily arranged all-
station hookup. "We of the gallant southland have faced and
withstood invasion before." Then, as ominous creakings and
groanings of the earth announced the approach of the tidal wave, he
flew out of Montgomery half an hour before the town disappeared
forever.
One head of the wave plunged north, eventually to spend itself in
the hills south of Birmingham. The main sweep followed the lowest
land. Reaching west, it swallowed Vicksburg and nicked the corner
of Louisiana. The whole of East Carroll Parish was scoured from the
map.
The Mississippi River now ended at about Eudora, Arkansas, and
minute by minute the advancing flood bit away miles of river bed,
swelling north. Chicot, Jennie, Lake Village, Arkansas City, Snow
Lake, Elaine, Helena and Memphis felt the tremors. The tormented
city shuddered through the night. The earth continued its descent,
eventually tipping 2-1/2 degrees down to the west. The "Memphis
Tilt" is today one of the unique and charming characteristics of the
gracious Old Town, but during the night of panic Memphis residents
were sure they were doomed.

South and west the waters carved deeply into Arkansas and
Oklahoma. By morning it was plain that all of Arkansas was going
under. Waves advanced on Little Rock at almost 100 miles an hour,
new crests forming, overtopping the wave's leading edge as towns,
hills and the thirst of the soil temporarily broke the furious charge.
Washington announced the official hope that the Ozarks would stop
the wild gallop of the unleashed Gulf, for in northwest Arkansas the
land rose to over 2,000 feet. But nothing could save Oklahoma. By
noon the water reached clutching fingers around Mt. Scott and Elk
Mountain, deluging Hobart and almost all of Greer County.
Despite hopeful announcements that the wave was slowing, had
virtually stopped after inundating Oklahoma City, was being
swallowed up in the desert near Amarillo, the wall of water
continued its advance. For the land was still sinking, and the floods
were constantly replenished from the Gulf. Schwartzberg and his
geologists advised the utmost haste in evacuating the entire area
between Colorado and Missouri, from Texas to North Dakota.
Lubbock, Texas, went under. On a curling reflex the tidal wave
blotted out Sweetwater and Big Spring. The Texas panhandle
disappeared in one great swirl.
Whirlpools opened. A great welter of smashed wood and human
debris was sucked under, vomited up and pounded to pieces. Gulf-
water crashed on the cliffs of New Mexico and fell back on itself in
foam. Would-be rescuers on the cliffs along what had been the west
bank of the Pecos River afterwards recalled the hiss and scream like
tearing silk as the water broke furiously on the newly exposed rock.
It was the most terrible sound they had ever heard.
"We couldn't hear any shouts, of course, not that far away and with
all the noise," said Dan Weaver, Mayor of Carlsbad. "But we knew
there were people down there. When the water hit the cliffs, it was
like a collision between two solid bodies. We couldn't see for over an
hour, because of the spray."
Salt spray. The ocean had come to New Mexico.

The cliffs proved to be the only effective barrier against the

westward march of the water, which turned north, gouging out
lumps of rock and tumbling down blocks of earth onto its own back.
In places scoops of granite came out like ice cream. The present
fishing town of Rockport, Colorado, is built on a harbor created in
such a way.
The water had found its farthest westering. But still it poured north
along the line of the original Fault. Irresistible fingers closed on
Sterling, Colorado, on Sidney, Nebraska, on Hot Springs, South
Dakota. The entire tier of states settled, from south to north, down
to its eventual place of stability one thousand feet below the level of
the new sea.
Memphis was by now a seaport. The Ozarks, islands in a mad sea,
formed precarious havens for half-drowned humanity. Waves bit off
a corner of Missouri, flung themselves on Wichita. Topeka, Lawrence
and Belleville were the last Kansas towns to disappear. The Governor
of Kansas went down with his State.
Daniel Bernd of Lincoln, Nebraska, was washed up half-drowned in a
cove of the Wyoming cliffs, having been sucked from one end of
vanished Nebraska to the other. Similar hair-breadth escapes were
recounted on radio and television.
Virtually the only people saved out of the entire population of Pierre,
South Dakota were the six members of the Creeth family. Plucky
Timothy Creeth carried and dragged his aged parents to the loft of
their barn on the outskirts of town. His brother Geoffrey brought
along the younger children and what provisions they could find
—"Mostly a ham and about half a ton of vanilla cookies," he
explained to his eventual rescuers. The barn, luckily collapsing in the
vibrations as the waves bore down on them, became an ark in which
they rode out the disaster.
"We must of played cards for four days straight," recalled genial Mrs.
Creeth when she afterwards appeared on a popular television
spectacular. Her rural good-humor undamaged by an ordeal few
women can ever have been called on to face, she added, "We sure
wondered why flushes never came out right. Jimanettly, we'd left the
king of hearts behind, in the rush!"
But such lightheartedness and such happy endings were by no
means typical. The world could only watch aghast as the water
raced north under the shadow of the cliffs which occasionally
crumbled, roaring, into the roaring waves. Day by day the relentless
rush swallowed what had been dusty farmland, cities and towns.
Some people were saved by the helicopters which flew mercy
missions just ahead of the advancing waters. Some found safety in
the peaks of western Nebraska and the Dakotas. But when the
waters came to rest along what is roughly the present shoreline of
our inland sea, it was estimated that over fourteen million people
had lost their lives.
No one could even estimate the damage to property; almost the
entirety of eight states, and portions of twelve others, had simply
vanished from the heart of the North American continent forever.

It was in such a cataclysmic birth that the now-peaceful Nebraska

Sea came to America.
Today, nearly one hundred years after the unprecedented—and
happily unrepeated—disaster, it is hard to remember the terror and
despair of those weeks in October and November, 1973. It is
inconceivable to think of the United States without its beautiful and
economically essential curve of interior ocean. Two-thirds as long as
the Mediterranean, it graduates from the warm waters of the Gulf of
Mexico through the equally blue waves of the Mississippi Bight,
becoming cooler and greener north and west of the pleasant fishing
isles of the Ozark Archipelago, finally shading into the gray-green
chop of the Gulf of Dakota.
What would the United States have become without the 5600-mile
coastline of our inland sea? It is only within the last twenty years
that any but the topmost layer of water has cleared sufficiently to
permit a really extensive fishing industry. Mud still held in suspension
by the restless waves will not precipitate fully even in our lifetimes.
Even so, the commercial fisheries of Missouri and Wyoming
contribute no small part to the nation's economy.
Who can imagine what the middle west must have been like before
the amelioration of climate brought about by the proximity of a
warm sea? The now-temperate state of Minnesota (to say nothing of
the submerged Dakotas) must have been Siberian. From
contemporary accounts Missouri, our second California, was
unbelievably muggy, almost uninhabitable during the summer
months. Our climate today, from Ohio and North Carolina to the rich
fields of New Mexico and the orchards of Montana, is directly
ameliorated by the marine heart of the continent.

Who today could imagine the United States without the majestic
sea-cliffs in stately parade from New Mexico to Montana? The
beaches of Wyoming, the American Riviera, where fruit trees grow
almost to the water's edge? Or incredible Colorado, where the
morning skier is the afternoon bather, thanks to the monorail
connecting the highest peaks with the glistening white beaches?

Of course there have been losses to balance slightly these strong

gains. The Mississippi was, before 1973, one of the great rivers of
the world. Taken together with its main tributary, the Missouri, it
vied favorably with such giant systems as the Amazon and the
Ganges. Now, ending as it does at Memphis and drawing its water
chiefly from the Appalachian Mountains, it is only a slight remnant of
what it was. And though the Nebraska Sea today carries many times
the tonnage of shipping in its ceaseless traffic, we have lost the old
romance of river shipping. We may only guess what it was like when
we look upon the Ohio and the truncated Mississippi.
And transcontinental shipping is somewhat more difficult, with trucks
and the freight-railroads obliged to take the sea-ferries across the
Nebraska Sea. We shall never know what the United States was like
with its numerous coast-to-coast highways busy with trucks and
private cars. Still, the ferry ride is certainly a welcome break after
days of driving, and for those who wish a glimpse of what it must
have been like, there is always the Cross-Canada Throughway and
the magnificent U. S. Highway 73 looping north through Minnesota
and passing through the giant port of Alexis, North Dakota, shipping
center for the wheat of Manitoba and crossroad of a nation.

The political situation has long been a thorny problem. Only tattered
remnants of the eight submerged states remained after the flood,
but none of them wanted to surrender its autonomy. The tiny fringe
of Kansas seemed, for a time, ready to merge with contiguous
Missouri, but following the lead of the Arkansas Forever faction, the
remaining population decided to retain political integrity. This has
resulted in the continuing anomaly of the seven "fringe States"
represented in Congress by the usual two Senators each, though the
largest of them is barely the size of Connecticut and all are
economically indistinguishable from their neighboring states.
Fortunately it was decided some years ago that Oklahoma, only one
of the eight to have completely disappeared, could not in any sense
be considered to have a continuing political existence. So, though
there are still families who proudly call themselves Oklahomans, and
the Oklahoma Oil Company continues to pump oil from its
submerged real estate, the state has in fact disappeared from the
American political scene.
But this is by now no more than a petty annoyance, to raise a smile
when the talk gets around to the question of State's Rights. Not
even the tremendous price the country paid for its new sea—
fourteen million dead, untold property destroyed—really offsets the
asset we enjoy today. The heart of the continent, now open to the
shipping of the world, was once dry and land-locked, cut off from
the bustle of trade and the ferment of world culture.
It would indeed seem odd to an American of the '50s or '60s of the
last century to imagine sailors from the merchant fleets of every
nation walking the streets of Denver, fresh ashore at Newport, only
fifteen miles away. Or to imagine Lincoln, Fargo, Kansas City and
Dallas as world ports and great manufacturing centers. Utterly
beyond their ken would be Roswell, New Mexico; Benton, Wyoming;
Westport, Missouri, and the other new ports of over a million
inhabitants each which have developed on the new harbors of the
inland sea.
Unimaginable too would have been the general growth of population
in the states surrounding the new sea. As the water tables rose and
manufacturing and trade moved in to take advantage of the just-
created axis of world communication, a population explosion was
touched off of which we are only now seeing the diminution. This
new westering is to be ranked with the first surge of pioneers which
created the American west. But what a difference! Vacation
paradises bloom, a new fishing industry thrives; her water road is
America's main artery of trade, and fleets of all the world sail ...
where once the prairie schooner made its laborious and dusty way
west!
 *** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE GREAT
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