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Fundamentals of Applied Probability
and Random Processes
This page intentionally left blank
Fundamentals of Applied
Probability and Random
Processes
2nd Edition

Oliver C. Ibe
University of Massachusetts, Lowell, Massachusetts

AMSTERDAM • BOSTON • HEIDELBERG • LONDON

NEW YORK • OXFORD • PARIS • SAN DIEGO
SAN FRANCISCO • SINGAPORE • SYDNEY • TOKYO
Academic Press is an imprint of Elsevier
Academic Press is an imprint of Elsevier
525 B Street, Suite 1900, San Diego, CA 92101-4495, USA
225 Wyman Street, Waltham, MA 02451, USA
Second edition 2014
Copyright © 2014, 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in
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Because of rapid advances in the medical sciences, in particular, independent verification
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Ibe, Oliver C. (Oliver Chukwudi), 1947-
Fundamentals of applied probability and random processes / Oliver Ibe. – Second edition.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-12-800852-2 (alk. paper)
1. Probabilities. I. Title.
QA273.I24 2014
519.2–dc23
2014005103
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
For information on all Academic Press publications
visit our web site at store.elsevier.com
Printed and bound in USA
14 15 16 17 18 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
ISBN: 978-0-12-800852-2
Contents

ACKNOWLEDGMENT ................................................................................ xiv

PREFACE TO THE SECOND EDITION........................................................ xvi
PREFACE TO FIRST EDITION ................................................................... xix

CHAPTER 1 Basic Probability Concepts................................................... 1

1.1 Introduction .............................................................................. 1
1.2 Sample Space and Events ....................................................... 2
1.3 Definitions of Probability ......................................................... 4
1.3.1 Axiomatic Definition ..................................................... 4
1.3.2 Relative-Frequency Definition ..................................... 4
1.3.3 Classical Definition ...................................................... 4
1.4 Applications of Probability ....................................................... 6
1.4.1 Information Theory....................................................... 6
1.4.2 Reliability Engineering ................................................. 7
1.4.3 Quality Control ............................................................. 7
1.4.4 Channel Noise .............................................................. 8
1.4.5 System Simulation ....................................................... 8
1.5 Elementary Set Theory ............................................................ 9
1.5.1 Set Operations.............................................................. 9
1.5.2 Number of Subsets of a Set ...................................... 10
1.5.3 Venn Diagram............................................................. 10
1.5.4 Set Identities .............................................................. 11
1.5.5 Duality Principle......................................................... 13
1.6 Properties of Probability........................................................ 13
1.7 Conditional Probability........................................................... 14
1.7.1 Total Probability and the Bayes’ Theorem................ 16
1.7.2 Tree Diagram ............................................................. 22
1.8 Independent Events ............................................................... 26
1.9 Combined Experiments.......................................................... 29

v
vi Contents

1.10 Basic Combinatorial Analysis .............................................. 30

1.10.1 Permutations .......................................................... 30
1.10.2 Circular Arrangement ............................................ 32
1.10.3 Applications of Permutations in Probability.......... 33
1.10.4 Combinations.......................................................... 34
1.10.5 The Binomial Theorem........................................... 37
1.10.6 Stirling’s Formula .................................................. 37
1.10.7 The Fundamental Counting Rule........................... 38
1.10.8 Applications of Combinations in Probability.......... 40
1.11 Reliability Applications......................................................... 41
1.12 Chapter Summary ................................................................ 46
1.13 Problems .............................................................................. 46
Section 1.2 Sample Space and Events ............................. 46
Section 1.3 Definitions of Probability ............................... 47
Section 1.5 Elementary Set Theory .................................. 48
Section 1.6 Properties of Probability................................ 50
Section 1.7 Conditional Probability................................... 50
Section 1.8 Independent Events ....................................... 52
Section 1.10 Combinatorial Analysis ................................ 52
Section 1.11 Reliability Applications................................. 53
CHAPTER 2 Random Variables............................................................... 57
2.1 Introduction .......................................................................... 57
2.2 Definition of a Random Variable .......................................... 57
2.3 Events Defined by Random Variables.................................. 58
2.4 Distribution Functions.......................................................... 59
2.5 Discrete Random Variables ................................................. 61
2.5.1 Obtaining the PMF from the CDF ............................ 65
2.6 Continuous Random Variables ............................................ 67
2.7 Chapter Summary ................................................................ 72
2.8 Problems .............................................................................. 73
Section 2.4 Distribution Functions ................................... 73
Section 2.5 Discrete Random Variables ........................... 75
Section 2.6 Continuous Random Variables ...................... 77
CHAPTER 3 Moments of Random Variables .......................................... 81
3.1 Introduction .......................................................................... 81
3.2 Expectation ........................................................................... 82
3.3 Expectation of Nonnegative Random Variables ..................84
3.4 Moments of Random Variables and the Variance...............86
3.5 Conditional Expectations...................................................... 95
3.6 The Markov Inequality.......................................................... 96
3.7 The Chebyshev Inequality .................................................... 97
 Contents vii

3.8 Chapter Summary ................................................................ 98

3.9 Problems .............................................................................. 98
Section 3.2 Expected Values ............................................. 98
Section 3.4 Moments of Random Variables and the
Variance........................................................ 100
Section 3.5 Conditional Expectations ............................. 101
Sections 3.6 and 3.7 Markov and Chebyshev
Inequalities .................................... 102
CHAPTER 4 Special Probability Distributions .......................................103
4.1 Introduction ........................................................................ 103
4.2 The Bernoulli Trial and Bernoulli Distribution ................. 103
4.3 Binomial Distribution ......................................................... 105
4.4 Geometric Distribution....................................................... 108
4.4.1 CDF of the Geometric Distribution ........................ 111
4.4.2 Modified Geometric Distribution............................ 111
4.4.3 “Forgetfulness” Property of the Geometric
Distribution ............................................................. 112
4.5 Pascal Distribution............................................................. 113
4.5.1 Distinction Between Binomial and Pascal
Distributions ........................................................... 117
4.6 Hypergeometric Distribution ............................................. 118
4.7 Poisson Distribution........................................................... 122
4.7.1 Poisson Approximation of the Binomial
Distribution ............................................................. 123
4.8 Exponential Distribution..................................................... 124
4.8.1 “Forgetfulness” Property of the Exponential
Distribution ............................................................. 126
4.8.2 Relationship between the Exponential and
Poisson Distributions ............................................. 127
4.9 Erlang Distribution ............................................................. 128
4.10 Uniform Distribution .......................................................... 133
4.10.1 The Discrete Uniform Distribution ...................... 134
4.11 Normal Distribution ........................................................... 135
4.11.1 Normal Approximation of the Binomial
Distribution ........................................................... 138
4.11.2 The Error Function............................................... 139
4.11.3 The Q-Function ..................................................... 140
4.12 The Hazard Function.......................................................... 141
4.13 Truncated Probability Distributions................................... 143
4.13.1 Truncated Binomial Distribution.......................... 145
4.13.2 Truncated Geometric Distribution ....................... 145
viii Contents

4.13.3 Truncated Poisson Distribution ........................... 145

4.13.4 Truncated Normal Distribution............................ 146
4.14 Chapter Summary .............................................................. 146
4.15 Problems ............................................................................ 147
Section 4.3 Binomial Distribution ................................... 147
Section 4.4 Geometric Distribution................................. 151
Section 4.5 Pascal Distribution....................................... 152
Section 4.6 Hypergeometric Distribution ....................... 153
Section 4.7 Poisson Distribution..................................... 154
Section 4.8 Exponential Distribution .............................. 154
Section 4.9 Erlang Distribution....................................... 156
Section 4.10 Uniform Distribution .................................. 157
Section 4.11 Normal Distribution ................................... 158
CHAPTER 5 Multiple Random Variables ...............................................159
5.1 Introduction ........................................................................ 159
5.2 Joint CDFs of Bivariate Random Variables ....................... 159
5.2.1 Properties of the Joint CDF ................................... 159
5.3 Discrete Bivariate Random Variables................................ 160
5.4 Continuous Bivariate Random Variables........................... 163
5.5 Determining Probabilities from a Joint CDF..................... 165
5.6 Conditional Distributions ................................................... 168
5.6.1 Conditional PMF for Discrete Bivariate
Random Variables .................................................. 168
5.6.2 Conditional PDF for Continuous Bivariate
Random Variables .................................................. 169
5.6.3 Conditional Means and Variances.......................... 170
5.6.4 Simple Rule for Independence .............................. 171
5.7 Covariance and Correlation Coefficient............................. 172
5.8 Multivariate Random Variables.......................................... 176
5.9 Multinomial Distributions .................................................. 177
5.10 Chapter Summary .............................................................. 179
5.11 Problems ............................................................................ 179
Section 5.3 Discrete Bivariate Random Variables ......... 179
Section 5.4 Continuous Bivariate Random Variables..... 180
Section 5.6 Conditional Distributions ............................. 182
Section 5.7 Covariance and Correlation Coefficient ...... 183
Section 5.9 Multinomial Distributions ............................ 183
CHAPTER 6 Functions of Random Variables ........................................185
6.1 Introduction ........................................................................ 185
6.2 Functions of One Random Variable ................................... 185
6.2.1 Linear Functions .................................................... 185
 Contents ix

6.2.2 Power Functions .................................................... 187

6.3 Expectation of a Function of One Random Variable ......... 188
6.3.1 Moments of a Linear Function............................... 188
6.3.2 Expected Value of a Conditional Expectation ........ 189
6.4 Sums of Independent Random Variables .......................... 189
6.4.1 Moments of the Sum of Random Variables .......... 196
6.4.2 Sum of Discrete Random Variables....................... 197
6.4.3 Sum of Independent Binomial Random
Variables ................................................................. 200
6.4.4 Sum of Independent Poisson Random Variables .. 201
6.4.5 The Spare Parts Problem ...................................... 201
6.5 Minimum of Two Independent Random Variables ............ 204
6.6 Maximum of Two Independent Random Variables ........... 205
6.7 Comparison of the Interconnection Models ...................... 207
6.8 Two Functions of Two Random Variables ......................... 209
6.8.1 Application of the Transformation Method ........... 210
6.9 Laws of Large Numbers .................................................... 212
6.10 The Central Limit Theorem ............................................... 214
6.11 Order Statistics .................................................................. 215
6.12 Chapter Summary .............................................................. 219
6.13 Problems ............................................................................ 219
Section 6.2 Functions of One Random Variable............. 219
Section 6.4 Sums of Random Variables ......................... 220
Sections 6.4 and 6.5 Maximum and Minimum of
Independent Random Variables.... 221
Section 6.8 Two Functions of Two Random Variables... 222
Section 6.10 The Central Limit Theorem ....................... 222
Section 6.11 Order Statistics .......................................... 223
CHAPTER 7 Transform Methods ...........................................................225
7.1 Introduction ........................................................................ 225
7.2 The Characteristic Function .............................................. 225
7.2.1 Moment-Generating Property of the
Characteristic Function.......................................... 226
7.2.2 Sums of Independent Random Variables .............. 227
7.2.3 The Characteristic Functions of Some
Well-Known Distributions ...................................... 228
7.3 The S-Transform................................................................. 231
7.3.1 Moment-Generating Property of the s-Transform 231
7.3.2 The s-Transform of the PDF of the Sum of
Independent Random Variables............................. 232
7.3.3 The s-Transforms of Some Well-Known PDFs..... 232
x Contents

7.4 The Z-Transform .................................................................. 236

7.4.1 Moment-Generating Property of the
z-Transform ............................................................. 239
7.4.2 The z-Transform of the PMF of the Sum of
Independent Random Variables............................... 240
7.4.3 The z-Transform of Some Well-Known PMFs ........ 240
7.5 Random Sum of Random Variables .................................... 242
7.6 Chapter Summary ................................................................ 246
7.7 Problems .............................................................................. 247
Section 7.2 Characteristic Functions ............................... 247
Section 7.3 s-Transforms ................................................. 247
Section 7.4 z-Transforms ................................................. 249
Section 7.5 Random Sum of Random Variables .............. 250
CHAPTER 8 Introduction to Descriptive Statistics................................253
8.1 Introduction .......................................................................... 253
8.2 Descriptive Statistics ........................................................... 255
8.3 Measures of Central Tendency............................................ 255
8.3.1 Mean ......................................................................... 256
8.3.2 Median ...................................................................... 256
8.3.3 Mode ......................................................................... 257
8.4 Measures of Dispersion ....................................................... 257
8.4.1 Range........................................................................ 257
8.4.2 Quartiles and Percentiles ........................................ 258
8.4.3 Variance .................................................................... 259
8.4.4 Standard Deviation ................................................... 259
8.5 Graphical and Tabular Displays........................................... 261
8.5.1 Dot Plots................................................................... 261
8.5.2 Frequency Distribution ............................................ 262
8.5.3 Histograms ............................................................... 263
8.5.4 Frequency Polygons................................................. 263
8.5.5 Bar Graphs ............................................................... 264
8.5.6 Pie Chart................................................................... 265
8.5.7 Box and Whiskers Plot............................................. 266
8.6 Shape of Frequency Distributions: Skewness .................... 269
8.7 Shape of Frequency Distributions: Peakedness ................. 271
8.8 Chapter Summary ................................................................ 272
8.9 Problems .............................................................................. 273
Section 8.3 Measures of Central Tendency ..................... 273
Section 8.4 Measures of Dispersion................................. 273
Section 8.6 Graphical Displays ......................................... 274
Section 8.7 Shape of Frequency Distribution................... 274
 Contents xi

CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Inferential Statistics .................................275

9.1 Introduction ........................................................................ 275
9.2 Sampling Theory ................................................................ 276
9.2.1 The Sample Mean................................................... 277
9.2.2 The Sample Variance ............................................. 279
9.2.3 Sampling Distributions........................................... 280
9.3 Estimation Theory .............................................................. 281
9.3.1 Point Estimate, Interval Estimate, and Confidence
Interval.................................................................... 283
9.3.2 Maximum Likelihood Estimation ........................... 285
9.3.3 Minimum Mean Squared Error Estimation ........... 289
9.4 Hypothesis Testing............................................................. 291
9.4.1 Hypothesis Test Procedure.................................... 291
9.4.2 Type I and Type II Errors........................................ 292
9.4.3 One-Tailed and Two-Tailed Tests.......................... 293
9.5 Regression Analysis........................................................... 298
9.6 Chapter Summary .............................................................. 301
9.7 Problems ............................................................................ 302
Section 9.2 Sampling Theory .......................................... 302
Section 9.3 Estimation Theory ........................................ 303
Section 9.4 Hypothesis Testing....................................... 303
Section 9.5 Regression Analysis..................................... 304
CHAPTER 10 Introduction to Random Processes...................................307
10.1 Introduction ........................................................................ 307
10.2 Classification of Random Processes ................................. 308
10.3 Characterizing a Random Process .................................... 309
10.3.1 Mean and Autocorrelation Function .................... 309
10.3.2 The Autocovariance Function............................... 310
10.4 Crosscorrelation and Crosscovariance Functions ............ 311
10.4.1 Review of Some Trigonometric Identities ........... 312
10.5 Stationary Random Processes........................................... 314
10.5.1 Strict-Sense Stationary Processes ...................... 314
10.5.2 Wide-Sense Stationary Processes....................... 315
10.6 Ergodic Random Processes............................................... 321
10.7 Power Spectral Density ..................................................... 323
10.7.1 White Noise .......................................................... 328
10.8 Discrete-Time Random Processes.................................... 329
10.8.1 Mean, Autocorrelation Function and
Autocovariance Function...................................... 329
10.8.2 Power Spectral Density of a Random Sequence.... 330
10.8.3 Sampling of Continuous-Time Processes ........... 331
xii Contents

10.9 Chapter Summary.............................................................. 333

10.10 Problems............................................................................ 334
Section 10.3 Mean, Autocorrelation Function and
Autocovariance Function ........................... 334
Section 10.4 Crosscorrelation and Crosscovariance
Functions.................................................... 335
Section 10.5 Wide-Sense Stationary Processes ............ 336
Section 10.6 Ergodic Random Processes....................... 339
Section 10.7 Power Spectral Density ............................. 339
Section 10.8 Discrete-Time Random Processes............ 342
CHAPTER 11 Linear Systems with Random Inputs ................................345
11.1 Introduction ........................................................................ 345
11.2 Overview of Linear Systems with Deterministic Inputs.... 345
11.3 Linear Systems with Continuous-Time Random Inputs ... 347
11.4 Linear Systems with Discrete-Time Random Inputs........ 352
11.5 Autoregressive Moving Average Process.......................... 354
11.5.1 Moving Average Process...................................... 355
11.5.2 Autoregressive Process ....................................... 357
11.5.3 ARMA Process ...................................................... 360
11.6 Chapter Summary .............................................................. 361
11.7 Problems ............................................................................ 361
Section 11.2 Linear Systems with Deterministic
Input............................................................ 361
Section 11.3 Linear Systems with Continuous
Random Input............................................. 362
Section 11.4 Linear Systems with Discrete
Random Input............................................. 365
Section 11.5 Autoregressive Moving
Average Processes .................................... 367
CHAPTER 12 Special Random Processes ...............................................369
12.1 Introduction ........................................................................ 369
12.2 The Bernoulli Process ....................................................... 369
12.3 Random Walk Process....................................................... 371
12.3.1 Symmetric Simple Random Walk ........................ 372
12.3.2 Gambler’s Ruin..................................................... 373
12.4 The Gaussian Process ....................................................... 375
12.4.1 White Gaussian Noise Process ............................ 377
12.5 Poisson Process................................................................. 378
12.5.1 Counting Processes ............................................. 378
12.5.2 Independent Increment Processes...................... 379
12.5.3 Stationary Increments.......................................... 379
 Contents xiii

12.5.4 Definitions of a Poisson Process ......................... 380

12.5.5 Interarrival Times for the Poisson Process ........ 381
12.5.6 Conditional and Joint PMFs for Poisson
Processes ............................................................. 382
12.5.7 Compound Poisson Process ................................ 383
12.5.8 Combinations of Independent Poisson
Processes ............................................................. 385
12.5.9 Competing Independent Poisson Processes....... 386
12.5.10 Subdivision of a Poisson Process and the
Filtered Poisson Process ..................................... 387
12.5.11 Random Incidence................................................ 388
12.6 Markov Processes.............................................................. 391
12.7 Discrete-Time Markov Chains ........................................... 393
12.7.1 State Transition Probability Matrix ...................... 393
12.7.2 The n-Step State Transition Probability .............. 393
12.7.3 State Transition Diagrams ................................... 395
12.7.4 Classification of States......................................... 396
12.7.5 Limiting-State Probabilities ................................. 399
12.7.6 Doubly Stochastic Matrix ..................................... 402
12.8 Continuous-Time Markov Chains ...................................... 404
12.8.1 Birth and Death Processes .................................. 406
12.9 Gambler’s Ruin as a Markov Chain ................................... 409
12.10 Chapter Summary .............................................................. 411
12.11 Problems ............................................................................ 411
Section 12.2 Bernoulli Process ...................................... 411
Section 12.3 Random Walk ............................................. 413
Section 12.4 Gaussian Process....................................... 414
Section 12.5 Poisson Process......................................... 415
Section 12.7 Discrete-Time Markov Chains ................... 418
Section 12.8 Continuous-Time Markov Chains .............. 423

APPENDIX................................................................................................ 427
BIBLIOGRAPHY........................................................................................ 429
INDEX ...................................................................................................... 431
Acknowledgment

The first edition of this book was well received by many students and profes-
sors. It had both Indian and Korean editions and received favorable reviews
that include the following: “The book is very clear, with many nice examples
and with mathematical proofs whenever necessary. Author did a good job!
The book is one of the best ones for self-study.” Another comment is the
following:
“This book is written for professional engineers and students who want to do
self-study on probability and random processes. I have spent money and time
in reading several books on this topic and almost all of them are not for self-
study. They lack real world examples and have end-of-chapter problems that
are boring with mathematical proofs. In this book the concepts are explained
by taking real world problems and describing clearly how to model them.
Topics are well-balanced; the depth of material and explanations are very
good, the problem sets are intuitive and they make you to think, which makes
this book unique and suitable for self-study. Topics which are required for
both grad and undergrad courses are covered in this book very well. If you are
reading other books and are stuck when applying a concept to a particular
problem, you should consider this book. Problem solving is the only way to get
familiar with different probability models, and this book fulfills that by taking
problems in the real world examples as opposed to some theoretical proofs.”

These are encouraging reviews of a book that evolved from a course I teach at
the University of Massachusetts, Lowell. I am very grateful to those who wrote
these wonderful unsolicited anonymous reviews in Amazon.com. Their obser-
vations on the structure of the book are precisely what I had in mind in writing
the book.
I want to extend my sincere gratitude to my editor, Paula Callaghan of Elsevier,
who was instrumental in the production of this book. I thank her for the effort
she made to get the petition for the second edition approved. I also want to
thank Jessica Vaughan, the Editorial Project Manager, for her ensuring timely
production of the book.
xiv
 Acknowledgment xv

So many students have used the first edition of this book at UMass Lowell and
have provided useful information that led to more clarity in the presentation of
the material in the book. They are too many to name individually, so I say
“thank you” to all of them as a group.
Finally, I would like to thank my wife, Christina, for patiently bearing with me
while the book was being revised. I would also like to appreciate the encour-
agement of our children Chidinma, Ogechi, Amanze and Ugonna. As always,
they are a source of joy to me and my wife.
Preface to the Second Edition

Many systems encountered in science and engineering require an understand-

ing of probability concepts because they possess random variations. These
include messages arriving at a switchboard; customers arriving at a restaurant,
movie theatre or a bank; component failure in a system; traffic arrival at a junc-
tion; and transaction requests arriving at a server.
There are several books on probability and random processes. These books
range widely in their coverage and depth. At one extreme are the very rigorous
books that present probability from the point of view of measure theory and
spend so much time proving exotic theorems. At the other extreme are books
that combine probability with statistics without devoting enough time on the
applications of probability. In the middle lies a group of books that combine
probability and random processes. These books avoid the measure theoretic
approach and rather emphasize the axioms upon which the theory is based.
This book belongs to this group and is based on the premise that to the engi-
neer, probability is a modeling tool. Therefore, to an engineering student the
emphasis on a probability and random processes course should be on the
application of probability to the solution of engineering problems. Also, since
some of the engineering problems deal with data analysis, the student should
also be exposed to some knowledge of statistics. However, it is not necessary
for the student to take a separate class on statistics since most of the prereq-
uisites for statistics are covered in a probability course. Thus, this book differs
from other books in the sense that it presents two chapters on the essentials of
statistics.
The book is designed for juniors and seniors, but can also be used at lower grad-
uate levels. It grew out of the author’s fifteen years experience developing and
analyzing probabilistic models of systems in the industry as well as teaching an
introductory course on probability and random processes for over ten years in
two different colleges. The emphasis throughout the book is on the applica-
tions of probability, which are demonstrated through several examples that
deal with real systems. Since many students learn by “doing,” it is suggested that

xvi
 Preface to the Second Edition xvii

the students solve the exercises at the end of each chapter. Some mathematical
knowledge is assumed, especially freshman calculus and algebra.
This second edition of the book differs from the first edition in a few ways. First,
the chapters have been slightly rearranged. Specifically, statistics now comes
before random processes to enable students understand the basic principles
of probability and statistics before studying random processes. Second,
Chapter 11 has been split into two chapters: Chapter 8, which deals with
descriptive statistics; and Chapter 9, which deals with inferential statistics.
Third, the new edition includes more application-oriented examples to enable
students to appreciate the application of probability and random processes in
science, engineering and management. Finally, after teaching the subject every
semester for the past eleven years, I have been able to identify several pain
points that hinder student understanding of probability and random processes,
and I have introduced several new “smart” methods of solving the problems to
help ease the pain.
The book is divided into three parts as follows:

Part 1: Probability and Random Variables, which covers chapters 1 to 7

Part 2: Introduction to Statistics, which covers chapters 8 and 9
Part 3: Basic Random Processes, which covers chapters 10 to 12

A more detailed description of the chapters is as follows. Chapter 1 deals with

basic concepts in probability including sample space and events, elementary set
theory, conditional probability, independent events, basic combinatorial anal-
ysis, and applications of probability.
Chapter 2 discusses random variables including events defined by random vari-
ables, discrete random variables, continuous random variables, cumulative dis-
tribution function, probability mass function of discrete random variables, and
probability distribution function of continuous random variables.
Chapter 3 discusses moments of random variables including the concepts of
expectation and variance, higher moments, conditional expectation, and the
Chebyshev and Markov inequalities.
Chapter 4 discusses special random variables and their distributions. These include
the Bernoulli distribution, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, Pascal
distribution, hypergeometric distribution, Poisson distribution, exponential
distribution, Erlang distribution, uniform distribution, and normal distribution.
Chapter 5 deals with multiple random variables including the joint cumulative
distribution function of bivariate random variables, conditional distributions,
covariance, correlation coefficient, functions of multivariate random variables,
and multinomial distributions.
xviii Preface to the Second Edition

Chapter 6 deals with functions of random variables including linear and power
functions of one random variable, moments of functions of one random var-
iable, sums of independent random variables, the maximum and minimum of
two independent random variables, two functions of two random variables,
laws of large numbers, the central limit theorem, and order statistics
Chapter 7 discusses transform methods that are useful in computing moments
of random variables. In particular, it discusses the characteristic function, the
z-transform of the probability mass functions of discrete random variables
and the s-transform of the probability distribution functions of continuous ran-
dom variables.
Chapter 8 presents an introduction to descriptive statistics and discusses such
topics as measures of central tendency, measures of spread, and graphical
displays.
Chapter 9 presents an introduction to inferential statistics and discusses such
topics as sampling theory, estimation theory, hypothesis testing, and linear
regression analysis.
Chapter 10 presents an introduction to random processes. It discusses classifi-
cation of random processes; characterization of random processes including
the autocorrelation function of a random process, autocovariance function,
crosscorrelation function and crosscovariance function; stationary random
processes; ergodic random processes; and power spectral density.
Chapter 11 discusses linear systems with random inputs. It also discusses the
autoregressive moving average process.
Chapter 12 discusses special random processes including the Bernoulli process,
Gaussian process, random walk, Poisson process and Markov process.
The author has tried different formats in presenting the different chapters of the
book. In one particular semester we were able to go through all the chapters except
Chapter 12. However, it was discovered that this put a lot of stress on the students.
Thus, in subsequent semesters an attempt was made to cover all the topics in
Parts 1 and 2 of the book, and a few selections from Part 3. The instructor can
try different formats and adopt the one that works best for him or her.
The beginning of a solved example is indicated by a short line and the end of the
solution is also indicated by a short line. This is to separate the continuation of
a discussion preceding an example from the example just solved.
Preface to First Edition

Many systems encountered in science and engineering require an understand-

ing of probability concepts because they possess random variations. These
include messages arriving at a switchboard; customers arriving at a restaurant,
movie theatre or a bank; component failure in a system; traffic arrival at a junc-
tion; and transaction requests arriving at a server.
There are several books on probability and random processes. These books
range widely in their coverage and depth. At one extreme are the very rigorous
books that present probability from the point of view of measure theory and
spend so much time proving exotic theorems. At the other extreme are books
that combine probability with statistics without devoting enough time on the
applications of probability. In the middle lies a group of books that combine
probability and random processes. These books avoid the measure theoretic
approach and rather emphasize the axioms upon which the theory is based.
This book belongs to this group and is based on the premise that to the engi-
neer, probability is a modeling tool. Therefore, to an engineering student the
emphasis on a probability and random processes course should be on the
application of probability to the solution of engineering problems. Also, since
some of the engineering problems deal with data analysis, the student should
also be exposed to some knowledge of statistics. However, it is not necessary for
the student to take a separate class on statistics since most of the prerequisites
for statistics are covered in a probability course. Thus, this book differs from
other books in the sense that it presents a chapter on the essentials of statistics.
The book is designed for juniors and seniors, but can also be used at lower grad-
uate levels. It grew out of the author’s fifteen years experience developing and
analyzing probabilistic models of systems in the industry as well as teaching an
introductory course on probability and random processes for over four years in
two different colleges. The emphasis throughout the book is on the applica-
tions of probability, which are demonstrated through several examples that
deal with real systems. Since many students learn by “doing,” it is suggested that
the students solve the exercises at the end of each chapter. Some mathematical

xix
xx Preface to First Edition

knowledge is assumed, especially freshman calculus and algebra. The book is

divided into three parts as follows:

Part 1: Probability and Random Variables, which covers chapters 1 to 7

Part 2: Basic Random Processes, which covers chapters 8 to 11
Part 3: Introduction to Statistics, which covers chapter 12.

A more detailed description of the chapters is as follows. Chapter 1 deals with

basic concepts in probability including sample space and events, elementary set
theory, conditional probability, independent events, basic combinatorial
analysis, and applications of probability.
Chapter 2 discusses random variables including events defined by random vari-
ables, discrete random variables, continuous random variables, cumulative dis-
tribution function, probability mass function of discrete random variables, and
probability distribution function of continuous random variables.
Chapter 3 deals with moments of random variables including the concepts of
expectation and variance, higher moments, conditional expectation, and the
Chebyshev and Markov inequalities.
Chapter 4 discusses special random variables and their distributions. These
include the Bernoulli distribution, binomial distribution, geometric distri-
bution, Pascal distribution, hypergeometric distribution, Poisson distribution,
exponential distribution, Erlang distribution, uniform distribution, and
normal distribution.
Chapter 5 deals with multiple random variables including the joint cumulative
distribution function of bivariate random variables, conditional distributions,
covariance, correlation coefficient, many random variables, and multinomial
distribution.
Chapter 6 deals with functions of random variables including linear and power
functions of one random variable, moments of functions of one random var-
iable, sums of independent random variables, the maximum and minimum of
two independent random variables, two functions of two random variables,
laws of large numbers, the central limit theorem, and order statistics
Chapter 7 discusses transform methods that are useful in computing moments
of random variables. In particular, it discusses the characteristic function, the
z-transform of the probability mass functions of discrete random variables
and the s-transform of the probability distribution functions of continuous
random variables.
Chapter 8 presents an introduction to random processes. It discusses classifica-
tion of random processes; characterization of random processes including the
autocorrelation function of a random process, autocovariance function,
 Preface to First Edition xxi

crosscorrelation function and crosscovariance function; stationary random

processes; ergodic random processes; and power spectral density.
Chapter 9 discusses linear systems with random inputs.
Chapter 10 discusses such specialized random processes as the Gaussian pro-
cess, random walk, and Poisson process and Markov process
Chapter 11 presents an introduction to statistics and discusses such topics as
sampling theory, estimation theory, hypothesis testing, and linear regression.
The author has tried different formats in presenting the different chapters of the
book. In one particular semester we were able to go through all the chapters.
However, it was discovered that this put a lot of stress on the students. Thus,
in subsequent semesters an attempt was made to cover all the topics in Part 1
of the book, chapters 8 and 9, and a few selections from the other chapters.
The instructor can try different formats and adopt the one that works best for
him or her.
The symbol Δ is used to indicate the end of the solution to an example. This is
to separate the continuation of a discussion preceding an example from the
example just solved.
This page intentionally left blank
 CHAPTER 1

Basic Probability Concepts

1.1 INTRODUCTION
Probability deals with unpredictability and randomness, and probability the-
ory is the branch of mathematics that is concerned with the study of random
phenomena. A random phenomenon is one that, under repeated observation,
yields different outcomes that are not deterministically predictable. However,
these outcomes obey certain conditions of statistical regularity whereby the
relative frequency of occurrence of the possible outcomes is approximately
predictable. Examples of these random phenomena include the number of
electronic mail (e-mail) messages received by all employees of a company
in one day, the number of phone calls arriving at the university’s switchboard
over a given period, the number of components of a system that fail within a
given interval, and the number of A’s that a student can receive in one
academic year.
According to the preceding definition, the fundamental issue in random phe-
nomena is the idea of a repeated experiment with a set of possible outcomes or
events. Associated with each of these events is a real number called the proba-
bility of the event that is related to the frequency of occurrence of the event in a
long sequence of repeated trials of the experiment. In this way it becomes obvi-
ous that the probability of an event is a value that lies between zero and one,
and the sum of the probabilities of the events for a particular experiment should
sum to one.
This chapter begins with events associated with a random experiment. Then it
provides different definitions of probability and considers elementary set theory
and algebra of sets. Also, it discusses basic concepts in combinatorial analysis
that will be used in many of the later chapters. Finally, it discusses how probability
is used to compute the reliability of different component configurations in a
system.

Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Random Processes. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-800852-2.00001-8

Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
2 C HA PT E R 1 Basic Probability Concepts

1.2 SAMPLE SPACE AND EVENTS

The concepts of experiments and events are very important in the study of
probability. In probability, an experiment is any process of trial and observa-
tion. An experiment whose outcome is uncertain before it is performed is
called a random experiment. When we perform a random experiment, the col-
lection of possible elementary outcomes is called the sample space of the exper-
iment, which is usually denoted by Ω. We define these outcomes as
elementary outcomes because exactly one of the outcomes occurs when the
experiment is performed. The elementary outcomes of an experiment are
called the sample points of the sample space and are denoted by wi,
i ¼ 1, 2, . . .. If there are n possible outcomes of an experiment, then the sample
space is Ω ¼ {w1, w2, . . ., wn}.
An event is the occurrence of either a prescribed outcome or any one of a num-
ber of possible outcomes of an experiment. Thus, an event is a subset of the
sample space. For example, if we toss a die, any number from 1 to 6 may appear.
Therefore, in this experiment the sample space is defined by

Ω ¼ f1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6g (1.1)

The event “the outcome of the toss of a die is an even number” is the subset of Ω
and is defined by
E ¼ f2, 4, 6g (1.2)

For a second example, consider a coin tossing experiment in which each toss
can result in either a head (H) or tail (T). If we toss a coin three times and
let the triplet xyz denote the outcome “x on first toss, y on second toss and z
on third toss,” then the sample space of the experiment is

Ω ¼ fHHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT g (1.3)

The event “one head and two tails” is the subset of Ω and is defined by

E ¼ fHTT, THT, TTHg (1.4)

Other examples of events are as follows:

n In a single coin toss experiment with sample space Ω ¼ {H, T}, the event
E ¼ {H} is the event that a head appears on the toss and E ¼ {T} is the
event that a tail appears on the toss.
n If we toss a coin twice and let xy denote the outcome “x on first toss and y
on second toss,” where x is head or tail and y is head or tail, then the
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 CHAPTER XVIII
THE DEFENCE OF GLASGOW

As soon as their kindly but indiscreet jailer was out of hearing, Al

exclaimed in a whisper, that the sentry might not overhear,
"Wallace, we must get out of here somehow and up to Glasgow to
warn our garrison. It may not do any good; I'm afraid the Johnnies
will be too many, but our boys mustn't be surprised if we can help
it."
"No, indeed," agreed Wallace, fervently. "But how are we to get
away?"
"We'll see," returned Al. "Hold me up while I look at this window. Be
mighty quiet, so the sentry won't hear us."
Wallace bent his back, and Al stepped on it and felt the iron bars of
the high window overlooking the river. Every one was firm and solid.
"We can't get through there," he whispered, after descending to the
floor again. "It would take two weeks' work to loosen one of those
bars."
Total darkness had fallen by this time, for in the middle of October
night comes much earlier than in the months of July and August,
during which the boys had been campaigning in Dakota and
Montana. They started around the room in opposite directions,
feeling of the boarded windows. When they came together again,
Wallace said,
"There's one over here may do. The planks are spiked fast to the
window sill, but the sill seems to be rotten or loose."
He crept again to the window referred to, followed by Al. They found
that by working the planks back and forth they could move the
portion of the casing to which they were fastened. In a few
moments they had an opening large enough at the bottom for them
to crawl through.
"This is mighty lucky, but let's wait a while," cautioned Wallace.
"There are too many people moving around, and the sentry is wide
awake yet."
They waited one hour, and then two. The sounds of voices and
footsteps gradually died away outside. For a long time their guard
walked back and forth on the ground before the door, then they
heard him fling himself down with a grunt.
"It'll be an hour and a half at least before he's relieved," whispered
Al. "He'll doze or sleep."
They waited fifteen or twenty minutes longer, then cautiously pulled
out the bottom of the planks and propped them with a small piece of
board they had found on the floor, so that they would not spring
back. Then one at a time they crept through the narrow opening.
Once outside, they tip-toed toward the river.
"I can't swim," whispered Wallace. "My arm hurts like fury since it
was tied back this afternoon."
"Then if we can't find a boat along here somewhere, you'll have to
stay or run off in the woods," replied Al. "It will be a long pull for
me, but I'll try to swim the river before I'll give up getting to
Glasgow."
They made their way along the bank for some distance and
presently, as luck would have it, came to a small row-boat pulled out
on shore. They could find only one oar in it but they worked the
boat down to the water, got in and shoved off. The rapid current
carried them quickly away from the Arrow Rock bank and then, by
vigorous paddling, Al succeeded finally in bringing the boat to the
opposite shore a mile or so down stream. They stepped on land and
pushed the boat out again to drift on down river.
"Now I know the country from here to Glasgow like a book," said Al.
"I've been over it often with father. There's a road up here
somewhere on the bluffs, and when we strike that we can keep on
going, right into Glasgow. We'll have to hurry, though, for Clark's
men will surely be crossing pretty soon now, and we must get ahead
of them."
It was now about eleven o'clock of the night of October 14, and the
boys were on Arrow Rock Point, fourteen or fifteen miles from
Glasgow. But at four the next morning, footsore and weary, they
came to the picket post at the bridge on the Boonville road across
Gregg's Creek, near the southern edge of town, and fifteen minutes
later they were conducted into the presence of Colonel Chester
Harding, Jr., who, with a detachment of his regiment, the Forty-third
Missouri Volunteer Infantry, and a few militia and citizen guards, was
holding the place.
"Where have you come from?" inquired Colonel Harding, as soon as
they had introduced themselves.
"From Arrow Rock, sir," answered Al, somewhat breathless in his
eagerness. "We were taken from a boat on the Missouri River early
yesterday by guerillas and conveyed to Arrow Rock, where we were
imprisoned; but we escaped last evening and have come here to tell
you that Arrow Rock is occupied by Clark's brigade and part of
Shelby's division, of Price's army, who intend to attack Glasgow to-
day."
Colonel Harding's face expressed surprise and concern.
"Are you sure of what you say?" he asked. "Are the rebels at Arrow
Rock part of Price's main army?"
"Yes, sir, they are," Al assured him, positively. "We were examined
by General Clark himself, and we later learned from one of his men
that they will attack Glasgow to-day. They are going to use artillery
from the west bank of the river and troops on this side, with artillery,
too, I suppose. They claim they will bring about four thousand men."
Colonel Harding arose and walked the floor. "If they do," said he, "I
fear they will defeat us. I have expected to be attacked by
bushwhackers, perhaps in large numbers, but not by Price's main
column. However, we will give them the best fight possible; and I
thank you heartily for the information you have brought me. My
troops are already bivouacked in battle positions, but I will warn
them to be ready for immediate action."
He put on his hat and started to the door, then turned back to Al. "I
see you are in civilian clothes," he remarked. "Do you want to fight if
there is an engagement?"
"Indeed I do, sir," replied Al, earnestly.
"Are you enlisted?"
"No, sir. I am not old enough."
"That is unfortunate," observed the Colonel. "You know, according to
the rules of civilized warfare, a man not regularly enlisted in the
service of a belligerent is liable to be punished by death if he fights
in battle and is captured. In case we should get the worst of this
encounter, you see you may be in a bad way unless you are in the
service."
"I shall fight, Colonel, and take my chances," replied Al, firmly. "I
can't stand by and see the Union flag fired upon without shooting
back."
"That is the right spirit, my boy," said Colonel Harding. "But be
careful, and if you see things going against us, you had better try to
get yourself away quietly."
"I lived in Glasgow until two years ago, sir," Al answered. "I think I
shall be able to manage in case of disaster. Can we get guns? Private
Smith, here, is on sick furlough, and my revolver I hid in the boat
when we were brought to shore by the guerillas."
"Go to the court house and ask the ordnance officer," said the
Colonel. "There are thousands of stands of arms there. Good luck to
you."
He turned and went out and the boys followed immediately, turning
however, toward the court house. They were provided, Al with a
musket and Wallace with a revolver, as he could use only his right
hand. The silence of early morning was brooding over the town as
they emerged from the court house, for the watchful troops around
could do nothing but wait for the enemy's blow to fall. But as they
paused on the sidewalk, the deep boom of a cannon resounded
across the river, echoing back from the bluffs, and a second later a
shell crashed into the side of a building about half a block away.
They could hear the window glass spatter on the ground in a jingling
shower.
"There goes Joe Shelby's opening gun, if that reb corporal was
right," exclaimed Al. "Come on!"
Wallace followed him and they ran south toward the bridge on the
Boonville road across Gregg's Creek, by which they had come in an
hour or so before. At a street corner they encountered three
companies of infantry going on the double-quick to the same point,
with canteens rattling against their bayonet scabbards. The boys fell
in behind the first company and kept on, until the column deployed
into line along the creek bank and the men threw themselves on the
ground behind bushes or whatever other cover offered. The bridge
had been stripped of its plank flooring by the picket guard, and only
the bare stringers now remained, offering no footing for an attacking
column.
"My, but that's hard work, runnin' that way," panted a stout man
beside Al. "Wonder what the rebs are doin'?" He raised himself on
his elbows and peered ahead.
On the crest of the hill across the narrow valley two field guns
frowned on the bridge, the cannoneers standing motionless at their
posts, seeming to wait only the command to open fire. In front of
them, long lines of dismounted cavalry were reaching out, like slowly
unfolding ribbons, against the brown face of the hill. Al and Wallace
watched them curiously. Would they never cease to extend? All at
once an officer on a black horse darted up to the two field guns as if
shot out of the woods behind. They could see him point his arm
toward the bridge, gesturing emphatically. Then the cannoneers
sprang to life, two vivid streaks of fire spurted from the muzzles of
the guns and Al felt, rather than heard, a terrific explosion which
seemed to take place all around him at once. Following it came a
sensation of intense, numbing silence that was at length pierced by
the thin, liquid vibration of a bugle, blowing somewhere far off, "the
charge." Then gradually other sounds came to his reviving ear-
drums, and he realized that a shell had burst directly over his head,
though he was unhurt. He glanced at Wallace, whose eyes looked
dazed.
"Wasn't that awful?" whispered Al.
"Awful, yes. Awful," repeated Wallace. He seemed almost beyond
words. But he suddenly hitched up on his knees, exclaiming,
"There, look! They're coming!"
Al turned his eyes to the front. The long, ribbon-like line of
Confederates was pitching forward down the hill and out across the
floor of the valley toward them. Two flags, fluttering blotches of red
and blue, tilted forward above it. Little ripples ran back and forth
along the line, like the wind ripples in growing wheat, as the men
strained to keep alignment; and ahead of them whirled a shrill, ear-
piercing wave of sound more united, more defiant and more
formidable than any Indian war-whoop the boys had ever heard. It
came to their senses that they were listening for the first time to
that heart-chilling "rebel yell" of which they had so often been told.
An officer walked rapidly along behind their own line, his voice, high-
keyed with excitement, striving vainly to be reassuring.
"Now, boys, now, don't get scared," he kept repeating. "Hang it all,
hold your fire, men! Hold your fire!"
All at once the volume of yells ceased. Al and Wallace looked to the
front and saw that the whole line of the enemy had stopped, rigid as
a fence. Even as they looked, a volley blazed along the line as if fired
from one gun. The fat man beside Al dropped his musket and began
to cry, frantically,
"Oh, oh, oh, my shoulder! Oh, oh, oh, my shoulder!"
There was no time to heed him. Through the wall of smoke before
them, created by the volley, again broke the Confederates on the
run, their dreadful yell preceding them, the two frayed battle flags
eddying above the smoke like the masts of catboats in a seaway.
"Lord, Al, they don't fight like Indians!" gasped Wallace, hoarsely.
As a photograph on the brain there came to Al a flashing recollection
of the broad plain fronting Tahkahokuty, bathed in the sunlight, with
the Sioux swooping and circling before the steadily advancing
troops.
"No," said he, briefly.
The officer came behind them again, running, and bellowing above
the uproar,
"Company, rise! Fire by company! Ready! Aim! Fire!"
A volley as steady as that of the enemy flamed along the front of the
company. Al was conscious of a vague surprise that in such chaos
the men could maintain a discipline so machine-like. But the enemy's
charging line did not appear even to waver.
"Load! Fire at will! Commence firing!" howled the officer, jumping
into the air to look over the heads of his men at the enemy beyond
the creek. "Fast, boys! Fer Gawd's sake, put it into 'em fast!"
The muskets began to rattle in a disjointed way, Al's among the rest,
while Wallace's revolver popped viciously. Everything in front was
veiled in thin white vapors, and the men in the charging line
resembled shadows, dancing upon a curtain. But the Confederates,
like a stampede of buffalo, held to their headlong course. Shortly the
officer bawled, in a voice almost tearful,
"No use, boys! They're flankin' us. They're across the creek, up and
down. Come back; back to the buildings!"
Most soldiers fear being flanked more than death itself in front. The
men cast terrified glances toward the enemy, streaming past beyond
their wings, and broke like sheep for the rear, where the outlying
houses of the town looked down a gentle slope toward them. They
were not panic-stricken, but, as in one man, the instinct awoke in
them to cover their flanks and save themselves from the dreaded
attack in rear. With the enemy hard behind them and filling the air
with exultant yells, they swarmed into the buildings, like bees into
their hives, smashing through doors and windows in their haste and
from these new havens of refuge they resumed their interrupted fire
desperately.
Al and Wallace, with five or six soldiers, made for a brick residence
standing back in a shady garden. By main force they tore a pair of
blinds from a shuttered window, crushed in the glass and sash with
flailing musket butts, and leaped through, landing upon the plush
carpet of a handsome parlor. The men swept up a polished
mahogany table and three or four rosewood chairs and jammed
them into the vacant window, then opened fire feverishly upon the
enemy, who were already tearing down the fence pickets in front of
the house or leaping over them. The Confederate line of battle had
dissolved into groups during the impetuous pursuit and the men, so
dauntless in their advance across the open fields, looked doubtfully
at the yawning windows and doors of the houses, each spitting fire,
upon which they had now come. They discharged a patter of
harmless shots, then began to seek cover behind trees, fences, or
stones.
There was a sergeant among the men with Al and Wallace. He
peered through the rosewood chair-legs cluttered in the window,
and cried,
"They're takin' cover, boys. We can hold 'em now. Here, Jones,
Throckmorton, Schmidt,—get upstairs. Shoot down at 'em;—drive
'em back."
Al raised his voice. "This is the house of Doctor Falkner," he said. "I
know him well; he is a Union man. Treat the house as well as you
can, boys." To Wallace he added, "My father sold him all this
furniture and these carpets."
The soldiers glanced at him curiously. This regard for property in the
midst of battle was unusual. But the Sergeant answered, as he
thrust his musket barrel through the chair legs,
"Sure, we'll treat it as well as we can."
The Confederates beyond the front fence seemed all at once to have
become tired. They declined to be coaxed or urged forward by their
officers, but from behind their hiding-places they kept up a constant
pop-popping of muskets and carbines which gradually reduced all
the doors and windows on that side of the house to kindlings.
Framed pictures on the opposite walls were punctured, and here and
there light from the adjoining rooms shone through holes in the
plastering. A soldier in the parlor was desperately wounded and lay
in a stupor on a spot of the plush carpet which was sopping wet with
blood, his head pillowed on a gay silk sofa cushion. Now and then
other soldiers dodged into or out of the house through doorways on
the side opposite to the enemy, and once the officer who had
directed the fight at the creek came in, but finding the Sergeant in
charge, left immediately. Time seemed to stand still. The little
garrison, wrapped in the absorbing occupation of pumping lead at
the almost invisible enemy in front, took no note of its passage.
Outside, a steady, rattling roar seemed to envelop the whole town
and country around, pierced constantly by human voices, shouting,
pleading or commanding, now near and again distant. Once Al, his
throat parched with the choking fumes of confined powder smoke,
darted back to the kitchen in search of water. While he was drinking
he heard a slight creak and rustle, audible in the uproar by reason of
its very lightness, and, looking around, he saw a woman standing on
the top step of the cellar stairs, her hand on the door knob. He had
to look twice before he knew her, for when he had last seen her, her
hair, now iron gray, was brown, and her face, now wrinkled, was
smooth and youthful.
"Why, Mrs. Falkner!" he stammered. "Why, are you here?"
She peered at him. "Al Briscoe!" she exclaimed, in a trembling voice.
"What on earth—why, how you've grown!"
She uttered the commonplace remark almost mechanically. She
seemed hardly to know what she was doing.
"Mrs. Falkner, you are in great danger here," cried Al.
"No, no; I am down cellar. I am safe if the house doesn't burn. Is it
on fire?"
"No, but it is being riddled with bullets."
"That is not so bad as fire," she answered, putting her hand weakly
to her head. "You will try to keep it from burning, won't you, Al?"
"I will do all I can, Mrs. Falkner," he answered, and before he could
say more she pulled the cellar door shut and disappeared.
He ran back to the front of the house. The Sergeant was peeping
excitedly past the edge of the parlor window. Directly he drew back,
crying,
"They're tryin' to get between us an' the next house!" He jabbed a
commanding forefinger at Al and Wallace. "Here, you—you; jump
upstairs. Shoot at 'em from the back windows. Stop 'em!"
The boys leaped up the broad, easy front stairway, three steps at a
time, wrenched open a bedroom door at the top and ran to a
window looking out over the back porch. Down along the side fence
they could see a dozen or more Confederates running, crouching
low. They were making for the porch. The boys fired simultaneously
and they saw one man drop, then wriggle off through the grass.
Wallace's revolver continued to bark while Al was reloading his
musket, but the Confederates cast frightened glances up at their
window, and before he was ready to fire again they had run back to
the other side of the house once more. The boys looked over the
back yard and the town behind it, and their eyes caught the roof of
the court house, rising above the trees. A column of black smoke
was pouring from it, with a dull glare of flames through and below it.
Al caught Wallace by the arm.
"See! The court house is on fire!" he cried. "And all those thousands
of arms are in it."
Wallace looked at the burning building, then apprehensively back at
Al.
"I wonder if a shell did it, or if it's Colonel Harding's orders?"
"There's no telling," answered Al. "If it's orders, it means that we're
whipped and the court house is being burned to keep the rebs from
getting the arms. Listen! Isn't the fire slacking up?"
It was true. The deep boom of the Confederate artillery had died out
from among the confused noises of the battle; and as the boys
hearkened, the continuous rattle of musketry diminished until only
scattered, individual shots could be heard. Then these ceased and a
silence followed, almost painful to the ears after the uproar.
"What can it mean?" asked Wallace, in an uneasy tone. Then he
went on, hopefully, "Perhaps the Johnnies have given up the attack."
They walked to the stairway and, as they went down, saw that the
Sergeant had opened the shattered front door and was standing on
the porch outside, while a Confederate officer, with a bit of dirty
white rag tied to the point of his sabre, was advancing up the walk
toward him. Something seemed to warn Al to keep out of sight and
he stepped into a corner where he could hear but could not be seen.
"What do you want?" demanded the Sergeant, gruffly, as the
Confederate reached him. "Be quick, or we'll open fire again."
"Your commander has surrendered the city and garrison, Sergeant,"
replied the Confederate, who wore the insignia of a major on his
coat collar. "You are prisoners of war. You have made a very gallant
defence. Permit me to congratulate you."
"Surrendered?" cried the Sergeant, in utter amazement. "Man alive,
we haven't begun to fight! We'll show you whether we've
surrendered. Get back to your lines, sir, before we fire!"
He stepped into the house to slam the door in the Major's face, but
the latter raised his hand with a gesture of authority.
"Just a moment," he said, soothingly. "I tell you the truth. Colonel
Harding has surrendered. We have broken through your lines on the
north and east of the city. There was nothing else for him to do."
The Sergeant's face was purple with rage.
"Well, I'll be—" he began, but he was interrupted by the entrance of
his own Captain, who laid a restraining hand on his arm.
"Frank, it's all over," exclaimed the Captain, in a broken voice.
"We've surrendered, Frank."
He dropped his hand with a despairing gesture, and two big tears
rolled from his eyes and coursed down his cheeks into his long, black
beard. Then he straightened up and flashed an indignant glance at
the Confederate officer.
"At all events, sir," he exclaimed, "you did not break through my
line."
The Confederate bowed his head gravely.
"No, sir;" he replied, "we did not. You have fought nobly, splendidly,
against superior numbers. The whole garrison has covered itself with
honor."
The Captain seemed to be struck by his antagonist's politeness.
"Anyway," said he, "it is not so hard to surrender to a gentleman."
"Thank you, sir," the other answered. "Courage deserves at least the
meed of praise. And now you will please be good enough to
assemble your company from these various buildings and march
them, under arms, to the vicinity of the court house. The building
was fired by your men before we got in and it is now burning, but
the formal surrender will occur as near to it as possible."
 CHAPTER XIX
REUNITED

Al waited to hear no more, but slipped through a convenient

doorway and out into the kitchen. He was just going to the cellar
door when he heard Wallace's voice behind him.
"I'm going to stay with you, Al," he said. "Where shall we hide?"
Al turned like a flash and caught his friend by the shoulder.
"No, you don't, now, old fellow!" he exclaimed. "I'm outlawed, and
you 're not going to put yourself deliberately in the same fix; no,
indeed! You're going out and surrender with the rest of the garrison;
and no doubt the whole lot of you will soon be paroled, for I don't
believe the rebs will want to carry a crowd of prisoners very far."
"Well, I'm going to stay with you, anyhow," persisted Wallace,
doggedly.
"Wallace, don't be a fool!" cried Al, impatiently. Then, seeing that he
must exercise diplomacy to make his friend follow the safer course,
he went on, "Don't you see that it would be harder for two of us to
escape than one, especially when you are disabled? I know Mrs.
Falkner. She will hide me until I can get away, but she could not so
easily hide two of us. Just give me your revolver and ammunition;
that's all I want, and you take my musket and surrender it, so
there'll be no question about your being unarmed. Nobody but
Colonel Harding knows I'm here or who I am; and, if it comes up,
you can tell him I've cut out and escaped, probably up-river."
"Al, I hate to do it," said Wallace, hesitatingly.
"You needn't. It's best for us both," insisted Al. "Now go; time is
precious, and good luck to you."
They gripped each other's hands in a firm farewell and Al stepped to
the cellar door and opened it. Then he turned and shook his finger
at Wallace smilingly.
"Mind, now; if you're paroled, I'll see you in St. Louis inside of ten
days, and we'll have lemonade together, with ice in it, at the ice-
cream parlor near Third and Olive Streets."
He closed the door behind him and felt his way down the cellar
stairs, his heart by no means as light as he had tried to make
Wallace believe.
"Mrs. Falkner! Mrs. Falkner!" he called, softly, on reaching the
bottom.
There was no answer.
"Mrs. Falkner!" Al repeated. "It's Al Briscoe. I'm in trouble."
He heard the rustle of her dress as she came toward him, saying,
"Al Briscoe? In trouble?"
"Yes," he answered. "The city has just surrendered. I have been
fighting, though I am not an enlisted soldier, and if the Confederates
catch me I shall very likely be shot. Will you hide me for a little while
until I can escape from the city?"
"Why, of course I will, Al," exclaimed the kind-hearted lady,
forgetting her own distress of mind in concern for him. "I am only
too glad to help you. What time of day is it?"
"It is about noon, Mrs. Falkner."
"Then you will hardly dare to venture out before dark," she said. "Till
then you can stay in the cellar. If you feel your way, you will find a
pile of boxes in the corner back here which you can hide behind, if
you wish. But I am living alone in the house, except for old Dinah,
and she ran away up town when the battle began. I think no one
will suspect that you are hiding here. Are you hungry?"
"I have not eaten since last evening, in Arrow Rock," Al admitted.
"I will see if there is anything to eat upstairs," said Mrs. Falkner. "I
suppose the house is completely wrecked?"
"Not altogether," Al replied, "but it is in pretty bad shape."
The lady went upstairs and presently returned with some food and a
candle.
"Oh, everything is torn to pieces!" she groaned, as she handed these
things to Al. "I don't know how I shall ever repair it, all alone, as I
am." Then she continued, "You can see to eat by this candle and
then you had better put it out, in case any one should look down the
cellar stairs. Then, if you want to sleep, I will keep watch; and after
dark I will waken you, and you can go to an old cave I know of, in a
clump of bushes not far back of the house."
"Yes, I know the cave," said Al. "It's the very place. Your son Frank
and 'Chucky' Collins and I made that cave. We used to have a
pirates' den there."
He smiled up at her as he bit into a pink slice of cold ham, the first
he had tasted in months.
"Oh, did you, Al?" asked Mrs. Falkner in a low voice. She was silent a
moment, then went on, slowly, "The Collins boy is in the rebel army.
Frank—Frank—was killed at Prairie Grove." Her voice broke.
The smile vanished from Al's face.
"Oh, Mrs. Falkner!" he exclaimed. "How sorry I am. Poor old Frank!
And your husband—Doctor Falkner?"
"Is a surgeon in Sherman's army," she said. "So long as he is left to
me I should be thankful, for I am only one of thousands who have
lost sons or husbands in our Nation's cause. What of your own
parents, Al?"
Then he told her of his father's death and Tommy's capture and of
his mother and Annie in St. Louis. For some time they talked, then
Mrs. Falkner returned upstairs, while Al lay down behind the pile of
boxes and was at once wrapped in the profound slumber of
exhaustion.
No one disturbed the lonely house during the remaining hours of the
day nor the early ones of the following night, for most of the
Confederate army was farther uptown or in bivouac outside its limits.
Sometime toward morning Mrs. Falkner awakened Al and conducted
him cautiously to the cave, leaving him there with an ample supply
of food for several days. The next day and night passed and Al still
lay in his cramped refuge, undisturbed, but very stiff and
uncomfortable and eager to get out and away.
During the second day Mrs. Falkner came to the cave and dropped a
note down to him through a crack in the roof. In it she informed him
that Colonel Harding and his command had been paroled the day
before and marched away toward Jefferson City accompanied by an
escort, to be delivered within the Union lines, wherever these might
be met with. The last of the Confederate troops, she wrote, had just
left, crossing the Missouri on steamboats and marching away
westward, to join General Price's main army. The town was still
quiet, but every one feared that gangs of guerillas would soon
swoop down upon it; and she advised Al to make his escape as soon
as darkness came.
Taking his revolver and such of his remaining food as he could
conveniently carry, he accordingly crept out of his hiding-place soon
after nightfall and made his way to the southeastward, following the
country roads and keeping his direction by the stars. About six
o'clock the next morning he arrived on the river bank opposite
Boonville. Making inquiries of a negro, he found that the town was in
possession of Union troops, and he soon crossed the river on the
ferry. To his surprise and delight, the paroled garrison of Glasgow
was just coming into town when he arrived, Wallace among them.
They were loud in their praises of the kind treatment they had
received at the hands of their captors, and especially of the escort
under Lieutenant Graves, which had brought them down to the near
vicinity of Boonville; for the Confederate soldiers had shared their
rations with the prisoners and made their march as comfortable as
possible in every way.
At Boonville the paroled men separated to await exchange; and Al
and Wallace continued their journey together, going down to
Jefferson City in an army wagon and thence by the Pacific Railroad
to St. Louis, where they arrived safe during the second morning
after leaving Boonville.
"Wallace," said Al, when they stepped from the train at the station
and walked out into the street, where drays and omnibuses were
rattling over the cobble stones and busy throngs of people covered
the sidewalks, "the first thing we do must be to find an ice-cream
parlor. We won't go to Third and Olive; that's too far from here. But I
want to drink that lemonade with you. I allowed ten days, you
remember, but now it is only,—let me see,—five days. Then you will
go out to Palm Street with me and see how a surprise affects my
mother and Annie and—" he hesitated, then added, hopefully,
"Tommy."
The refreshing drink was pleasant but they fairly gulped it down, for
Al, now that at last he had reached his journey's end, was feverishly
eager to see his dear ones once more. So they hastened to Fifth
Street and boarded a north-bound horse car, which soon carried
them to Palm Street, though to Al in his impatience the journey
seemed hours long. As they came in sight of the house, Al saw his
mother in the front yard, transplanting some flowers from a bed to
pots. Her back was toward the street and the boys approached
within a few feet without her hearing them. Then Al took off his hat
and stepped up behind her.
"Excuse me, madam," said he, gravely, "but is this where Mrs.
Thomas Briscoe lives?"
His mother turned and gave one startled glance at the brown-faced
youth before her, in his rough, travel-stained clothes, then dropped
her case-knife and flower pot on the ground, crying, in a voice
thrilling with joy,
"Al, Al! My dear, dear boy!"
The next instant she was in his arms and both of them were
laughing and crying at once. As soon as the first warm greeting was
over, Al asked fearfully,
"Mother, have you seen or heard anything of Tommy?"
He need not have asked the question, for at this juncture a straight,
boyish figure bounded through the front doorway, cleared the steps
in one jump and sprang into Al's arms.
"What, Tommy?" cried Al, in amazed delight. "Can it possibly be you,
so big and strong? I would not have known you. How and when did
you get here?"
"They sent me down on another boat after the North Wind burned,"
Tommy answered.
"But how did you know to stop in St. Louis?" asked Al.
"Why, I hunted up Uncle Will, of course, to have him help me get to
Minnesota, and then I was so glad to find that mama and Annie
were here," Tommy replied. "What a hunt you have had for me, dear
old brother!"
"Yes, but now we are together again, so everything has come out for
the best, even though I didn't find you myself. Mother, where is
Annie?"
"She is in school," answered Mrs. Briscoe. "But she will be home at
three o 'clock. Tommy should be there, too, but he will not start until
next Monday. He is far back in studies for his age."
"But he must have learned many things in the last two years which
he never could have learned in school," said Wallace, who had been
warmly and affectionately greeted by Mrs. Briscoe.
"Yes, I did," admitted Tommy. "It was a great life up there among
the Indians, and Te-o-kun-ko was always very good to me, and so
were his squaw and the children. I think a lot of them all."
"We were a little afraid you might grow to think so much of them
and of their life that you would not want to come back to us," said
Al.
Tommy glanced at him reproachfully.
"Why, Al," he exclaimed, "how could you think I would ever care as
much for any one as for mama and you and Annie and—" a shadow
crossed his face, "papa," he added.
Al, judging that his young brother did not yet realize any connection
of Te-o-kun-ko with Mr. Briscoe's death, and deciding not to explain
it until some later time, answered,
"We couldn't be sure, Tommy, for you know such things have
happened."
"I was always sure," remarked Mrs. Briscoe, calmly, and, indeed,
there was no question that her mother's instinct had been correct,
as it almost always is.
"Well," said Wallace, "with all the knowledge of the Indians and their
ways you have gained, you ought to make a capital scout."
Tommy looked at him thoughtfully. "Perhaps I will—some day," he
replied. "But first I want to learn the things that other fellows know,
because I don't believe that without them, it is much use just to be
able to ride and shoot and track game and so on."
"Now, Al," Mrs. Briscoe interrupted, turning toward the door, "we all,
your aunt and uncle, too, will be eager to know what has happened
to you in the last six months, especially since you started west from
Fort Rice. The last letter I had from you was the one you sent from
there, on the eighteenth of July."
"There has been no chance to send you any since," replied Al. "And I
got your last letter, dated June 20, at Fort Rice on my way down
from the Yellowstone. So we shall all have much to tell each other.
Although I didn't succeed in rescuing Tommy in the way I hoped to
do," he put his arm affectionately over his small brother's shoulders,
"I believe this trip of mine has been good for me, and will be in the
future for all of us."
And so, indeed, it proved, for the following year Al readily secured
an appointment to West Point through the hearty endorsements of
General Sully and other army officers whom he had come to know in
the Northwest; and the father of Wallace Smith, after the close of
the war had brought prosperity and new floods of settlers to the
Minnesota frontier, was able to help Mrs. Briscoe to such a profitable
sale of her desirable claim near Fort Ridgely that she had enough to
live upon comfortably at her sister's hospitable home in St. Louis,
while Tommy and Annie were completing their education in the
excellent schools of that city, and sometimes spending a vacation in
cruising up and down the Mississippi on Captain Lamont's fine
steamer. Thus Al's unselfish enterprise on behalf of his brother,
begun under such discouraging circumstances, resulted, directly or
indirectly, in advancing the interests and happiness of himself and all
those dearest to him; and he never had cause for anything but
gratitude and rejoicing over the friends made and the experiences
gained during his adventurous Summer with Sully in the Sioux land.

THE END
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