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Visual Analytics for
Management

This book provides students with an in-depth understanding of the concepts,

frameworks and processes used to analyze and present visual data for better
decision-­making. Expert contributors provide guidance in translating complex
concepts from large data sets and how this translation drives management practice.
The book’s first part provides a descriptive consideration of state-of-the-art
science in visual design. The second part complements the first with a rich set of
cases and visual examples, illustrating development and best practice to provide
students with real-world context. Through their presentation of modern scien-
tific principles, the editors inspire structured discussions of audience and design,
recognizing differences in need, bias and effective processes across contexts and
stakeholders.
This cutting-edge resource will be of value to students in business analytics,
business communication and management science classes, who will learn to be
capable managers through the effective and direct visual communication of data.
Researchers and practitioners will also find this an engaging and informative
book.

Elliot Bendoly is the 2015 Academy of Management’s Operations Management

Division Distinguished Scholar and a Full Professor in the Fisher College of Busi-
ness at The Ohio State University, USA.

Sacha Clark is the founder of Mulsanne Management, USA, a firm that assists
clients with business strategy development and implementation, productivity
enhancement and technology exploitation, and change and transformation man-
agement. He has worked with leading companies such as FedEx, General Motors,
IBM, Mitsubishi, Procter & Gamble, Pennzoil, Shell, Samsung and WestPac.
In no other source will you find so much helpful knowledge and so many examples
of the psychological and decision-making context behind visual representations
of data. Serious visual analytics professionals need to be aware of and address these
issues if they wish to be effective.

Thomas H. Davenport, Babson College, USA

Visual Analytics for
Management

Translational Science and

Applications in Practice

Edited by Elliot Bendoly and Sacha Clark

First published 2017
by Routledge
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
and by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2017 Taylor & Francis
The right of Elliot Bendoly and Sacha Clark to be identified as the authors of the editorial material,
and of the authors for their individual chapters, has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and
78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form
or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including
photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission
in writing from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks,
and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
A catalog record for this book has been requested
ISBN: 978-1-138-19071-9 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-1-138-19072-6 (pbk)
ISBN: 978-1-315-64089-1 (ebk)
Typeset in Bembo
by codeMantra
Contents

List of Figuresvii
List of Tablesx
List of Contributorsxi
Prefacexv
Introductionxix

Part I
The Science of the Art 1
1 Incomplete Pictures3
Elliot Bendoly
2 Coping with Haystacks17
Elliot Bendoly
3 Best Practices in Visual Design30
Elliot Bendoly
4 Sustaining Collective Sensemaking in Teams: Five Patterns
of Interaction42
Alice Comi, Martin Eppler and L. Alberto Franco
5 Processing Data for Visual Network Analysis56
Jukka Huhtamäki, Martha G. Russell and Kaisa Sill

Part II
Applied Cases 73
6 Visualizing a Real-world Sales Pipeline Process75
Jeremy C. Adams
vi Contents

7 Framing Wicked Problems Using Co-design and

a Hybrid Design Toolset85
Erika Braun
8 Visual Support for Complex Repair Operations in a Global
Aerospace Company100
Sian Joel-Edgar, Lei Shi, Lia Emanuel, Simon Jones,
Leon Watts, Linda Newnes, Stephen Payne, Ben Hicks
and Stephen Culley
9 Electronic Health Record-based Visualization Tools113
Randi Foraker
10 Optimization,Visualization and Data Mapping for
HVAC Product Distribution124
James W. Hamister, Michael J. Magazine and
George G. Polak
11 The Long Way to Intuitive Visual Analysis of Air Traffic
Control Data138
Paul Rosenthal, Linda Pfeiffer, Nicholas Hugo Müller
and Georg Valtin
12 Data Visualization in History148
David J. Staley
13 An Energy Information System to Conserve Electricity
in Campus Buildings159
Shaun Fontanella

Index169
Figures

R.1 Tablet-delivered Digital Dashboardxvi

R.2 Vintage Vehicle Dashboardxvii
R.3 Race Car Dashboardxvii
I.1 The Rosetta Stone and Examples of Phonetic and
Ideographic Signsxx
1.1 An Input–Process–Output View of Sensemaking5
1.2 Homogeneity Set Biases as Represented by Simpson’s Paradox10
1.3 Anscomb’s Quartet11
1.4 Responses from Practitioners When Asked to Draw Relationships
between X and Y in Each Series12
2.1 The Same Data: Proximity Bias as a Function of Dimensional
Vantage Point20
2.2 The Same Data II: Complications of Similarity and Ordinal
Proximity Effects21
2.3 The Same Data III: Two Subsystems Merge and Continuity Misleads24
2.4 Deterring Trend and Causal Biases through Limit and Variance
Awareness27
3.1 Pierce’s Classic Semiotic Framework Applied to Management
Data Visualization32
3.2 Representational Foci in the Functional Design of Data Visual
Representations33
3.3 Plot Characteristics Supporting Matched Structures in Pierce’s
Framework39
3.4 Quality Control System of Visuals in an Interactive/Customizable
Dashboard Format41
viii Figures

4.1 Workshop Setting and Map Extract47

4.2 Moving Towards Accommodation48
4.3 Making Changes to the Map49
5.1 Ostinato Model for Visual Network Analytics58
5.2 Interconnections between EIT ICT Labs Co-locations60
5.3 Ostinato Model for EIT ICT Labs Investigation61
5.4 What if San Francisco Bay Area Would Be the Seventh City?62
5.5 Ostinato Model for Finnish Innovation Ecosystem Investigation63
6.1 Graphical Visualization of Data Points with Sales Pipeline Funnel77
6.2 A Revised View of the Sales Pipeline Activity Data79
6.3 Customer Service System Adoption Stacked Area Chart80
6.4 Sales Team System Adoption Stacked Area Chart80
6.5 Number of Deals and Cumulative Number Closed by Status
and Sales Rep82
6.6 Deals Outstanding by Number of Days Outstanding83
7.1 The Initial Circle of Nodes93
7.2 Using the Stakeholder Icons to Visually Indicate Prioritization93
7.3 Suggested Clusters Formed When Nodes are Placed Near
to One Another95
7.4 The Addition of New “Red” Ideas and Connector Dots,
Allowing Linkage—I96
7.5 The Addition of New “Red” Ideas and Connector Dots,
Allowing Linkage—II96
8.1 Conceptual Model for Visual Project Management Support102
8.2 Visualization of Operational Complexity—I107
8.3 Visualization of Operational Complexity—II107
8.4 Visualization of Integrated KPIs: An Intelligent Dashboard108
9.1 Data Entry, Storage, and Visualization in the Electronic
Health Record115
9.2 SPHERE Application116
9.3 Conceptual Relationship Between SPHERE Inputs and Outputs118
9.4 One-year Changes in the SPHERE Intervention Clinic
and Control Clinic120
10.1 Process Overview125
10.2 Lot Size, Frequency, and Relative Volume from Each Supplier130
10.3 Inbound Flow Lanes Highlighted in Green130
10.4 Inbound Lanes Highlighted in Red for Greater Visibility130
10.5 Inbound Logistics132
10.6 Outbound Logistics—Cincinnati Large Customer133
10.7 Outbound Logistics—Cincinnati Small Customers133
10.8 Current Inbound Logistics—Dashboard134
10.9 Model-prescribed Inbound Logistics—Dashboard134
 Figures ix

11.1 Work Position of Two Air Traffic Controllers; Area Control Center
in Langen, Germany139
11.2 Annual Growth Rate of Passenger Kilometers Performed
in Air Traffic Since 2003139
11.3 Concept Study of the Air Traffic Controllers’ Work Console
of the Future140
11.4 Electronic Flight Strip Display with Touch Input; Area Control
Center in Bremen, Germany141
11.5 Strip’TIC: Mixing Electronic Flight Strips with Augmented
Paper Tangibles141
11.6 Staging and Measurement at the Research and Development
Department of DFS144
11.7 Visual Stimuli Used for Studying Air Space Encodings:
(a) Two-dimensional Visualization of One Air Space Sector with
a Side-by-side Comparison of Two Different Visual Encodings
for Aircraft, Their Height, and Speed; (b) Empty Sector with
Interactive Aircraft Symbols, which Can Be Used to Reproduce
the Previous Situation145
11.8 A Paper Prototype, Produced in the Design of the New Air Traffic
Control Interface145
12.1 The Florida Historical Quarterly155
12.2 3D Digital Rendering of “Woman in History”156
12.3 3D Printed Artifact Capturing “Woman in History”157
13.1 Screenshot of Dashboard Displayed in Mendenhall Lab162
13.2 Unit Conversions to Contextually Familiar References163
tables

1.1 Results of a Loss Framing Experiment7

4.1 Additional Step-wise Evidence of Making and Sensemaking51
4.2 Summary of Findings53
5.1 Data-processing Related Design Issues and Their Use
in Ostinato Model Phases64
6.1 End of Month Customer Deal Status76
8.1 File-based Feature Vector104
8.2 Transaction-based Feature Vector105
8.3 Result of Complexity Identification106
10.1 Subset of Heuristically Determined Flows From Sources to 2J DCs129
10.2 Post-heuristic Improvement135
10.3 Adding Delivery Service to Small Customers136
10.4 Visualization Idioms in Adapted Semiotic Framework136
Contributors

(Listed in Chapter order)

Elliot Bendoly
Fisher College of Business, The Ohio State University

Sacha Clark
Mulsanne Management Ltd

Alice Comi
Department of Management Studies, Aalto University School of Business

Martin Eppler
Institute for Media and Communications Management, University of St. Gallen

L. Alberto Franco
Management Science and Operations Management, Loughborough University

Jukka Huhtamäki
Tampere University of Technology

Martha G. Russell
mediaX, Human Sciences Technology Advanced Research Institute, Stanford
University

Kaisa Still
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
xii Contributors

Jeremy C. Adams
Strategic Planning and Execution at Cardinal Health

Erika Braun
Design Research and Development Graduate Program,The Ohio State University

Sian Joel-Edgar
Computer Science, University of Bath

Lei Shi
Engineering and Design, University of Bath

Lia Emanuel
Computer Science, University of Bath

Simon Jones
Computer Science, University of Bath

Leon Watts
Computer Science, University of Bath

Linda Newnes
Engineering and Design, University of Bath

Stephen Payne
Computer Science, University of Bath

Ben Hicks
Engineering Systems and Design, University of Bristol

Stephen Culley
Engineering and Design, University of Bath

Randi Foraker
Division of Epidemiology, The Ohio State University

James W. Hamister
Raj Soin College of Business, Wright State University

Michael J. Magazine
Carl H. Lindner College of Business, University of Cincinnati

George G. Polak
Raj Soin College of Business, Wright State University
 Contributors xiii

Paul Rosenthal
Department of Computer Science, Technische Universität Chemnitz

Linda Pfeiffer
Department of Computer Science, Technische Universität Chemnitz

Nicholas Hugo Müller

Department of Humanities, Technische Universität Chemnitz

Georg Valtin
Department of Humanities, Technische Universität Chemnitz

David Staley
Department of History, The Ohio State University

Shaun Fontanella
Center for Urban and Regional Analysis, GIS Graduate Program at The Ohio
State University
This page intentionally left blank
Preface

We’re drowning in a sea of digital content, data and information. A 2015 study
(Virtualization & Cloud News, April 5, 2105) determined that every second, the
world generates nearly 30 gigabytes (GB) of data—that’s enough to fill ten mil-
lion Blu-ray discs per day. Those discs stacked on top of one another would be
as tall as four Eiffel Towers, and that growth rate is accelerating by the moment.
By the same token, technology vendors are also flooding the market with ever
more capable, flexible data analytics and visualization tool sets that are becoming
more and more accessible and affordable.
That should be good news, but with an abundance of technologies to apply
to this tidal wave of content, the bad news is that it’s all the more important to
address the perennial challenge of what data to present to whom and how to
choose the right representational means.
The challenge of designing the right data and information presentation on
an automobile dashboard is a familiar analogy. It helps to illustrate some of the
trade-offs inherent in providing professionals and executives with the right dash-
board format and content to help them make good decisions. Today’s automobile
technology is rapidly evolving to the point where drivers already have a palette
of choices for custom configuring their individual dashboards (and, in some cases,
heads-up displays).
However, is all of that choice necessarily a good thing? Consider the tablet-
delivered digital dashboard in Figure R.1—the technology to create this kind of
display exists today in the form of cables to connect to vehicles’ OBD-II port
(on-board diagnostics ports found on every modern vehicle), special software
and a tablet. But because data about high-pressure oil pump (HPOP) pressure is
available, does that mean that the average driver’s attention should be diluted by
it? And while the operator of a commercial vehicle or piece of heavy equipment
may need to monitor values like engine and transmission oil temperatures, should
xvi Preface

Figure r.1 Tablet-delivered Digital Dashboard

Source: Macrovector/bigstockphoto

you and I attempt to track that data while navigating the family sedan down the
motorway?
Coming from an executive who has spent most of his career engaged in the
application of emerging technologies to transform business practices for the bet-
ter, this may seem almost heretical: I would submit that, for the average driver
who is commuting to and fro at normal posted speeds, the vintage car dashboard
content and presentation in Figure R.2 is far more effective. It displays an absolute
indication of vehicle speed, relative values for engine coolant temperature and fuel
levels, and it has warning lamps (“idiot lights”) that illuminate in the event of a
potentially catastrophic low-oil pressure or improper battery charging condition.
As minimalistic as that may be, compared to our first example, it does a far bet-
ter job of providing the right amount of information to the “average driver.” No
more than a quick glance allows that driver to get the necessary information for
everyday driving conditions while staying focused on the primary task at hand.
Figure R.3, on the other hand, shows a racing car’s dashboard. The speeds and
competitive environment faced by the racer demands laser-like focus on what’s
happening on the track and the ability to tune out any and all distractions. At
first blush, the plethora of gauges may seem to contradict the earlier points extol-
ling the simplicity of the vintage car’s dashboard. However, drivers competing
in events that cover long distances at high speed need to monitor a number of
indicators of their vehicles’ health. Those indicators will directly impact strategy
over the course of a multiple-hour race.
The gauges on this car are arranged so that they require little more than using
peripheral vision, or, at most, that quick glance. Engine speed is the most impor-
tant data point and therefore the tachometer is several times larger than all of
 Preface xvii

Figure r.2 Vintage Vehicle Dashboard

Source: BCFC/bigstockphoto

Figure r.3 Race Car Dashboard

Source: Barry Blackburn/shutterstock

the other gauges. Also, all of the gauges are oriented in such a way that, when all
data values are in their optimal ranges, all of the orange needles are pointed to
“12 o’clock”—straight up and down. If something is out of whack, the driver can
quickly zero in on the gauge that is showing an abnormal reading and take the
appropriate decisions.
xviii Preface

In business, it’s imperative to sort out the what—data and information needs
within an enterprise vary as widely as, if not more than, those described in the
automotive analogy above. Applying the techniques and concepts from seminal
works such as Norton and Kaplan’s The Balanced Scorecard: Translating Strategy into
Action and Huling, Covey and McChesney’s 4 Disciplines of Execution: Getting Strat-
egy Done enables enterprise measurement blueprints that contain well-aligned
combinations of leading and lagging indicators. The blueprints define measures
and metrics at every level of the organization that ultimately roll up to, and are
aligned with, the business’s overall strategy.
This book, in turn, provides useful examples of frameworks and implementa-
tions that help create the right “gauges” and “warning lights” for individuals in
various enterprise roles and levels—the how. The authors illustrate how various
strategy-aligned measurement blueprints are transformed into effective presen-
tations of management content, data and information. These insights help cre-
ate visual business dashboards to keep decision makers informed with the right
performance and information read-outs. Well-designed data visualizations ensure
that the quick glance tells your “drivers” what they need to know in order to take
any necessary actions or decisions.
We hope that you enjoy the book and that it helps you and your stakeholders
to stay on track and ahead of the competition.

Sacha Clark
CEO
Mulsanne Management Ltd
Introduction

Translation. The communication of something’s meaning through an equivalent

representation. The word derives from the Latin for “a carrying across”—and
indeed the gulfs that need to be crossed can sometimes be daunting.The term has
a long history of use in the study of languages, with one of the most evocative
symbols being that of the famed Rosetta Stone.
When I visited the British Museum with my family in 2013, I couldn’t miss
this. Seeing it in person, knowing it was the real thing and not a replica, had
a visceral effect on me. I had first learned about the Rosetta Stone from Carl
Sagan’s series COSMOS (Episode 12: Encyclopedia Galactica, 1980). The stone
was found by Pierre Bouchard, a French soldier under Napoleon’s command
during the Egyptian campaign in 1799. It contained portions of passages writ-
ten in Greek, Egyptian hieroglyphics and Egyptian demotic. By the time of
­Napoleon however, an understanding of the literal meaning of hieroglyphics and
their composite passages, adorning monuments across Egypt, had been lost to
time. ­Egyptologist Jean-Francois Champollion, an expert in languages (including
Greek and demotic), ultimately deciphered the hieroglyphics two decades later.
To do so he leveraged the fact, or rather the assumption at the time, that the three
passages on the stone each had the same meaning.
However the task was not simply one that involved determining which set of
hieroglyphic symbols represented which words in Greek or demotic. It required
developing an understanding of how these “words” were comprised. Ultimately,
Champollion determined that some of the symbols indeed represented sounds
(phonetic signs), while others represented entire conceptual meanings in and of
themselves (ideographic signs).
The choice of the ancient Egyptians to develop a written language that made
the simultaneous use of both simple and highly complex signs, although doing
the later European scholars no favors, was an artifact of their context and history.
xx Introduction

Figure i.1 The Rosetta Stone and Examples of Phonetic and Ideographic Signs

It made sense to be able to succinctly capture commonly confronted concepts in

unique images, while allowing for a system of signs to permit the evolution of
the written language. It was efficient in some sense, and certainly not the only
instance of such an effort by mankind—take for example the Japanese joint use of
Kanji ideographs along with Hiragana and Katakana phonetics.
The world is full of simple signs that serve as fundamental building blocks
of visual expression. The world is also full of richer signs, not necessarily more
complex in terms of the number of pen strokes (or pixels) used to form them,
but vastly more sophisticated in the meaning they are intended to express. The
trick for the user of these signs is in understanding the audience to which they are
attempting to convey meaning. If the audience has a frame of reference equivalent
to the communicator, issues of translation aren’t raised. However when the audi-
ence has a different background, the task needs to be approached in a more sensi-
tive manner. A C-suite manager can be just as stymied by a report developed by
modern data analysis as can a French soldier stumbling on pretty pictures carved
into a stone.
In this text, we hope to provide a little guidance for those charged with trans-
lating complex concepts gleaned from large data sets and sophisticated analysis.
The kind of guidance that can facilitate translation and have the greatest chance
of driving practice. Our hope is to appeal to both casual readers and dedicated
researchers/practitioners critically examining their own processes.
For instructional interests, our book is designed as an accompaniment to pri-
mary texts in business analytics coursework as well as to texts in business and
technical communications coursework. For those focusing on data analytics as a
career path, the ability to leverage data visualization as an analytical approach in
parallel to mathematical, statistical and computational modeling in undeniable.
For those positioning themselves as capable management communicators, the
 Introduction xxi

virtues of effective and direct visual communication of data is similarly without

question. As instructors delivering curriculum in support of either of these paths,
our hope is that the present text offers much needed support.
More specifically, the assistance needed in both instructional cases goes beyond
the simple presentation of stunning infographics and requires structured discus-
sions of audience and problem focus in design; looking not just at end consumer
audiences but also at intermediate users of data visualization in analytical devel-
opment. It requires recognizing differences in need, bias and effective processes
across contexts and stakeholders; rationalizing the effectiveness of lean or sophis-
ticated representations; static versus dynamic interactive ones, again with a focus
on need; solitary idioms versus dashboard systems of such, as well as how to
effectively design these.
To accomplish this and set in place best practices for managers and analysts,
it is critical to provide them with well-defined frameworks and processes, based
on modern scientific principles and backed with rich case examples of use. This
ultimate aim is facilitated by a two-section structure. The first section of this text
provides a descriptive consideration of the state-of-the-art and science in visual
design. The second provides case examples describing development and/or use in
practice, with vivid visual artifacts associated with such work provided as an insert.
It is our sincere hope that all readers find these to be both informative and
inspirational in their own work, and that ours will be remembered as only the first
of many forays in the intelligent development of visual analytics.

Dr. Elliot Bendoly

Professor of Management Science
Fisher College of Business,The Ohio State University
This page intentionally left blank
Part I

The Science of the Art

This page intentionally left blank
1
Incomplete Pictures
Elliot Bendoly

W.E. Deming is quoted as saying “You can expect what you inspect.” Not exactly
a phrase that roles off the tongue, but an important premise nonetheless. It implies
that since most systems can be decomposed into inputs, outputs and connecting
processes, intelligence into the details of each of these can facilitate precise map-
pings of cause–effect relationships; relationships necessary for the anticipation of
risks and opportunities, and therefore the discerning of means for improvement.
In the absence of complete details, such mappings suffer.
Yet, despite being much more widely (and incorrectly) referenced, Deming
never actually suggested “You can’t manage what you can’t measure.” Human
decision makers are not incapable of making very good, even optimal, decisions
in the absence of complete information. After all that’s almost always what we are
confronted with, even in the age of “big data.”The trick is being able to make use
of smart rules, and not falling into traps formed by our own biases.
In this chapter we begin with a description of the boundedly rational mind,
drawing on now traditional economic literature on decision theory. We describe
the assumptions and implications of this perspective, in practical terms focusing
on the manner in which individuals make sense of the world around them. We
then extend this discussion by considering three families of biases that specifi-
cally affect the way individuals extrapolate from limited data in an effort to make
intelligent decisions. Specifically we discuss what we refer to as Set Biases (beliefs
in data Homogeneity, Uniformity, Normality), Trend Biases (beliefs in associa-
tive data Linearity, Continuity, Unboundedness, Stasis), and Causal Biases (beliefs
in relational data Immediacy, No coincidences, Absence of feedback loops). We
describe the implications of such biases in the presence of contemporary visual
depictions of data; depictions which often do not provide enough details that
might otherwise avoid boundedly rational extrapolations and better inform deci-
sions on immediate inspection.
4 Elliot Bendoly

1.1 How We Make Lemonade

As stated, most of the decisions we make are done in the absence of complete
information out of practical necessity. Nevertheless humans have survived as a
species so far, so we must be doing something right. It turns out, when handed the
lemon-equivalent of data, humans have a remarkable knack for making lemonade;
and more often than not it tastes pretty good.
How do we do it? What is this talent?
In large part we benefit from our ability to construct and reference rules for
making sense of our environment. This is a skill developed over the eons of the
evolution of our species. Those that maintained efficient and effective rule sets
could scan their environment for risks and opportunities, formulate tactics for
evading or leveraging, and out-perform those who held less efficient or less effec-
tive rules. From a translational perspective, it was as if the high performers had
Google Maps advising them on how to plan their routes, while the low perform-
ers only had an aerial photograph; i.e. the difference in large part was in how the
data available was converted to actionable compositions.
Today we often discuss the process by which we transform data that we observe
into potential action as “sensemaking.” Sensemaking as a concept is something we’ll
talk about a lot in this text, as it is not simply an inherent ability that individuals pos-
sess but also an ability that can be developed. It is also something that is key in the
development of artificial intelligence. Granted, sometimes that development is in
the wrong direction; individuals or artificial agents latch on to a new rule based on
erroneous observation. But in other instances it can lead to much more intelligent
decision making, in some cases superseding older less effective rules. And thankfully,
course corrections in development are also always possible, albeit at some cost.
Whether correct or not, these rules that we construct include beliefs regarding
simple associations as well as complex causal relationships. These are mental maps
that draw connections between observations and outcomes desired, peppered with
details regarding the constraints within which these nodes and connections exist.
They also include details regarding the lags between action and response, though
as humans we do have some difficulty remembering to account for these at times.
We also tend to hold more than one line of reasoning, more than one mental
map, in our arsenals. After all, we are social creatures.We encounter others who have
different views of causality, and no matter how much we might like to we never
completely ignore these views.That of course does complicate how we make sense
of our environment. Ultimately our choices of rule sets to go with rely on higher-
level meta-rules. Metaheuristics, and at the highest level something that would
seem so basic but has long been far too ignored in management: preference.
There are other words you’ll encounter when discussing decision making with
scholars. The rules that define how inputs are converted into decisions often fall
into the category of “heuristics,” with metaheuristics again referring to those
higher-level rules that help develop and select which heuristic best applies to
 Incomplete Pictures 5

INPUT

PROCESS OUTPUT
Biases (w/ examples)
Econ: Loss Aversion, Reflection
Heuristics (w/ examples) Decisions
Effect, Sunk-Cost Fallacy
Econ: Anchoring & Adjustments made in OM
Psych: Availability/Familiarity, settings
Current Moment, Attribution Psych: “Follow the leader”

Bounded Rationality (exogenously driven) and

Cognitive Limits (endogenously driven) influencing

Figure 1.1 An Input–Process–Output View of Sensemaking (pro tem. omitting

feedback)

a certain scenario. The term “bias” also tends to come up, although any quick
examination of extant sources (including the more credible corners of Wikipedia)
will reveal a good deal of blurring between what falls into the classification of
bias versus heuristics. For the purpose of a concrete discussion, let’s borrow a page
again from the Operations Management field and think about sensemaking from
an input–process–output (IPO) perspective.
As shown in Figure 1.1, heuristics and metaheuristics are nicely positioned
as processes by which inputs are converted into decisions. What are inputs then?
Certainly the observations we are able to make or data are by other means
provided regarding the context of the decision. However inputs also include
personal tendencies to give more weight to certain kinds of data than to others.
The biases are the adjectives to the nouns that comprise our decision-making
environments, and often serve as adverbs to color the heuristics we apply in
decision making. Some examples of these biases, drawn from the elder disci-
plines of Economics and Psychology are provided in Figure 1.1. Although it
isn’t the intent of this text to provide a comprehensive examination of biases
and heuristics suggested by researchers, it benefits our present discussion to go
through just some of these.

1.2 Biases in Everyday Life

To be sure, biases and heuristics are not all bad.They have a history of being abso-
lutely critical to decision making; without them many great decisions may never
have been made in the timely fashion in which they were needed. But it should
also be clear that their presence, persistence and acceptance is not without some
very relevant risks. Sometimes the lemonade we make gives us an ulcer. It can
even be lethal, and sadly not only to the decision maker.
On the input side, focusing on the various ways inherent biases might be influ-
encing us, we’ll start our review with a big one. A bias that is embedded in many,
if not most data interpretations and selections of/mediations of decision processes
people face on a daily basis: Loss Aversion.
6 Elliot Bendoly

Loss Aversion
The tendency for individuals to strongly prefer (a) avoiding losses versus (b)
acquiring gains. Made famous by Kahneman and Tversky (1981, 1984), and their
investigation of the Allais Paradox, this bias has been studied extensively. The ini-
tial observations of this bias involved examining the following question posed to
physicians:

The U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is
expected to kill 600 people.Two alternative programs to combat the disease
have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the conse-
quences of the programs are as follows: If program A is adopted, 200 people
will be saved. If program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that
600 people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that no people will be
saved. Which of the two programs would you favor?

72 percent of those asked chose option A, the certainty of 200 survivals over the
possibility of 600 deaths. Interestingly the same options were provided in a some-
what different wording to examine how phrasing alone might impact choice:

The U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which
is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the dis-
ease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the
consequences of the programs are as follows: If program C is adopted, 400
people will die. If program D is adopted, there is a one-third probability
that nobody will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will die.
Which of the two programs would you favor?

To their surprise only 22 percent selected option C (equivalent in lives saved to

option A), with 78 percent preferring option D (exact wording as B). A dramatic
swing in what one might view as apparent “preference.” The swing captures what
is referred to as the Reflection Effect—the tendency for the preferences of indi-
viduals in Loss (or Loss framed) scenarios to appear to be the mirror opposite of
those apparent in Gain (or Gain framed) scenarios.
A somewhat more striking comparison is the consideration of the following
two choice scenarios. In one, the choice is one between a certain gain of $20 or
a one-third chance of gaining $60. In the other the choice is between a certain
loss of $20 and a one-third chance of losing $60.Two equal gains in one case, two
equal losses in the other. Studies demonstrate a strong preference for certain gains
in the first case, but a strong preference for uncertain losses in the other.
Again, a swing in preference?
Not technically, and this is something that scholars often get wrong. The fun-
damental nature of “preference” (the individual bias against loss) wasn’t swinging
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 "You have escaped by a quibble. You are a murderer, and you
know yourself to be one."

"Mistress," he said, "if I had you alone I would make you smart."

"How does that sound, men?" cried the innkeeper's wife with
excited gestures. "Is it the speech of an innocent man? He would
like to get me alone. Yes, he got one poor girl alone, and we know
what became of her. The coward! the murderer! Hunt him away,
neighbours. It is a disgrace to look upon him."

They advanced towards Gautran threateningly, and he drew his

knife and snapped it open.

"Who will be the first?" he asked savagely, and seeing that they
held together, he retreated backwards, with his face to them, until a
turn in the road hid them from his sight. Then he fled into the
woods, and with wild cries slashed the trees with his knife, which he
had sharpened in the early morning.

On the second occasion he presented himself at a cottage door,

with the intention of begging or buying some food. He knocked at
the door, and not receiving an answer, lifted the latch. In the room
were two children--a baby in a cradle, and a five-year-old boy sitting
on the floor, playing with a little wooden soldier. Looking up, and
seeing the features of the ruffian, the boy scrambled to his feet, and
rushing past Gautran, ran screaming down the road. Enraged almost
to madness, Gautran ran after the child, and catching him, tossed
him in the air, shouting:

"What! you, too, brat? This for your pains!"

And standing over the child, was about to stamp upon him, when
he found himself seized by the throat. It was the father, who,
hearing the child's screams, came up just in time to save him. Then
ensued a desperate struggle, and Gautran, despite his boast to the
Advocate, found that he had met more than his match. He was
beaten to the ground, lifted, and thrown into the air, as he had
thrown the child. He rose, bruised and bleeding, and was slinking
off, when the man cried:

"Holy Mother! it is the murderer, Gautran!"

Some labourers who were coming across the fields, were

attracted by the scuffle, and the father called out to them:

"Here is Gautran the murderer, and he has tried to murder my

child!"

This was enough for them. They were armed with reaping-hooks,
and they raced towards Gautran with loud threats. They chased him
for full a mile, but he was fleeter of foot than they, and despair gave
him strength. He escaped them, and sank, panting, to the ground.

The Advocate had spoken truly. There was no safety for him. He
was known for miles round, and the people were eager for
vengeance. He would hide in the woods for the rest of the day.
There was but one means of escape for him. He must seek some
distant spot, where he and his crime were unknown. But to get there
he would be compelled to pass through villages in which he would
be recognised. It was necessary that he should disguise himself. In
what way could this be done? He pondered upon it for hours. In the
afternoon he heard the muttering of the thunder in the distant
mountains.

"There's a storm coming," he said, and he raised his burning face

to meet the welcome rain. But only a few heavy drops fell, and the
wind moaned through the woods as if in pain. Night stole upon him
swiftly, and wrapt him in horrible darkness. He bit his lips, he
clenched his hands, his body shook with fear. Solitude was worse
than death to him. He tried to sleep; in vain. Terrible images
crowded upon him. Company he must have, at all hazards. Suddenly
he thought of John Vanbrugh, the man he had met the night before
on the hill not far from the Advocate's house. This man had not
avoided him. He would seek him again, and, if he found him, would
pass the night with him. So resolving, he walked with feverish steps
towards the hill on which John Vanbrugh was keeping watch.
 CHAPTER III
GAUTRAN RESOLVES ON A PLAN OF ESCAPE

The distance was longer than Gautran had calculated, and he did
not shorten it by the devious tracks he took in his anxiety to avoid
meeting with his enemies. The rainstorm still kept off, but, in spite of
the occasional flashes of lightning, the darkness seemed to grow
thicker and thicker, and he frequently missed his way. He kept on
doggedly, however, and although the shadow of his crime waited
upon his steps, and made itself felt in the sighing and moaning of
the wind, in the bending of every branch, and in the fluttering of
every leaf, the craving for human companionship in which there was
something of sympathy, and from which he would not be hunted like
a dog, imbued him with courage to fight these terrors. Often,
indeed, did he pause and threaten with fearful words the spectre of
the girl he had murdered; and sometimes he implored her to leave
him, and told her he was going to pay for masses for the repose of
her soul. Occasionally he was compelled to take the high road, and
then he was grateful for the darkness, for it prevented his face from
being seen. At those times he slunk close to the hedges, as though
dreading that the slightest contact with a human being would lead to
discovery. Terrible as the night was to him, he feared the approach
of day, when it would be more difficult to conceal himself from his
pursuers. He knew that his life was not safe while he remained in
this fatal neighbourhood. He must escape, and in disguise, before he
was many hours older. How was this to be accomplished? Once, in
the roadway, he followed with stealthy steps two men who were
conversing. He would have avoided them, as he had avoided others,
had it not been that he heard his name mentioned, and was
morbidly curious to hear what they were saying about him.

Said one: "I have not set eyes upon this man-monster, but I shall
know him if I meet him in the light."

To which the other replied: "How will you manage that, if you
have never seen his face?"

"You ask a foolish question. Have not full descriptions of the

murderer been put about everywhere? His features, the colour of his
hair, his clothes, from his cap to his boots--all is known. His face he
might disguise by a slash of his knife, if he has courage enough for
it, or he might stain it--and in that way, too, he might change the
colour of his hair. But his clothes would remain. The shirt he wears is
one in a thousand, and there's no mistaking it. It is blue, with broad
yellow bands, which encircle his villainous body like rings. Let him
get another shirt if he can. The country is aroused for twenty miles
round, and men are resolved to take justice into their own hands.
The law has allowed him to slip through its fingers; he shall not slip
through ours. Why, he said to a woman this morning that he would
know how to serve her if he had her alone, and not long afterwards
he tried to murder a child! Shall such a monster be allowed to
remain at liberty to strike women down and murder the helpless?
No--we don't intend to let him escape. Men are on the watch for him
everywhere, and when he is caught he will be beaten to death, or
hung upon the nearest tree. There is another end for him, if he
chooses to take it. He can hide in the woods and starve, and when
his body is found, we'll drive a stake through it. Take my word for it,
Gautran, the murderer, has not long to live."

Gautran shook with fear and rage.

"I could spring upon them with my knife," he thought, "but they
are two to one."
 And then, when the men were out of hearing, he shook his fist at
them, and muttered:

"Curse you! I will cheat you yet!"

But how? The description given of his shirt was a faithful one; the
broad yellow bands were there, and he remembered that, two days
before the end of his trial, the gaolers had taken it from his cell in
the night, and returned it to him in the morning, washed, with the
yellow colour brighter than it had been for months. He knew now
that this had been done out of malice, in case he should be
acquitted, so that he might be the more readily recognised and
shunned, or the more easily tracked and caught if he was again
wanted. There loomed upon him a way to foil those who had vowed
to kill him. The man he was seeking had spoken in a reckless
manner; he had complained of the world, and was doubtless in want
of money. He had gold which the Advocate had given him; he would
offer to buy the man's clothes, and would give him his own, and
one, two, or even three gold pieces in exchange; An easy thing to
accomplish. But if the man would not consent to the bargain! He
smiled savagely, and felt the edge of his knife. He was thoroughly
desperate. He would sacrifice a thousand lives to save his own.

Out of this murderous alternative--and out of the words uttered

by the man he had overheard, "His face he might disguise by a slash
of his knife if he has courage for it"--grew ideas which, as he
plodded on gradually arranged themselves into a scheme which
would ensure him an almost sure escape from those who had
leagued themselves against him. Its entire success depended upon
certain physical attributes in John Vanbrugh--but he would risk it
even if these were not as he wished them to be. The plan was
horrible in its design, and needed strength and cunning. He had
both, and would use them without mercy, to ensure his safety. John
Vanbrugh, with whose name he was not acquainted, was probably a
stranger in the locality; something in Vanbrugh's speech caused him
to suspect this. He would assure himself first of the fact, and then
the rest was easy. Vanbrugh was about his own height and build; he
had stood by his side and knew this to be so. Gautran should die this
night in the person of another man, and should be found in the
morning, murdered, with features so battered as to defy recognition.
But he would be attired in Gautran's clothes, and would by those
means be instantly identified. Then he, the true Gautran, would be
forever safe. In John Vanbrugh's garments he could make his way to
a distant part of the country, and take another name. No one would
suspect him, for Gautran would be dead; and he would buy masses
for the repose of Madeline's soul, and so purge himself of blood-
guiltiness. As to this second contemplated crime he gave it no
thought, except that it was necessary, and must be done.
 CHAPTER IV
HEAVEN'S JUDGMENT

Within half an hour of midnight he arrived at the hill, and saw the
shadow of a man who was leaning against a tree. Gautran had been
walking for nearly three hours, and during the whole time the storm
of thunder and lightning had continued at intervals, now retreating,
now advancing; but its full force had been spent many miles away,
and it did not seem likely to approach much nearer to the House of
White Shadows.

"The man is there," muttered Gautran, "with his face still towards
the Advocate's window. What is his purpose?"

He was curious about that, too, and thought he would endeavour

to ferret it out. It might be useful to him in the future, for it
concerned the Advocate. There was plenty of time before him to
accomplish his own murderous design.

John Vanbrugh heard Gautran's footsteps.

"Who comes this way?" he cried.

"A friend," replied Gautran.

"That is easily said," cried Vanbrugh. "I am not in a trustful mood.

Hold off a bit, or I may do you mischief."

"Do you not know me?" asked Gautran, approaching closer, and
measuring himself with the dark form of Vanbrugh. They were of
exactly the same height.

"What, Gautran!" exclaimed Vanbrugh in a gay tone.

"Yes, Gautran."

"Welcome, friend, welcome," said Vanbrugh, with a laugh. "Give

me your hand. Veritable flesh and blood. You have a powerful grip,
Gautran. I thought we should meet again. What caused you to make
yourself scarce so suddenly last night? You vanished like a cloud."

"I had business to do. Have you got any more of that brandy
about you?"

"I am not sure whether you deserve it. After emptying my flask,
you may make off again. A poor return for hospitality, my friend."

"I promise to remain with you--it is what I came for--if you give
me brandy."

"I take your word," said Vanbrugh, producing a flask. "Drink, but
not too greedily."

Gautran took a long draught and returned the flask, saying, "You
have no food, I suppose?"

"Why, yes, I have. Warned by previous experiences I supplied

myself liberally for this night's watch. I'll not refuse you, though I
spent my last franc on it."

"Ah," said Gautran, with some eagerness, for an amicable

exchange of clothing would render the more villainous part of his
task easier of accomplishment, "you are poor, then?"

"Poor? Yes, but not for long, Gautran. The days of full purses are
coming. Here is the food. Eat, rogue, eat. It is honest bread and
meat, bought and paid for; but none the sweeter for that. We know
which fruit is the sweetest. So you had business to do when you
took French leave of me! How runs the matter? I had just pointed
out the Advocate's window to you--your own special Advocate, my
friend, to whom you have so much reason to be grateful--when you
disappeared like an arrow from a bow. What follows then? That,
leaving me so abruptly, your business was important, and that it
concerned the Advocate. Right or wrong, rogue?"

"Right," replied Gautran, as he devoured the food.

"Come, that's candid of you, and spoken like a friend. You did not
know, before I informed you, that he lived in the villa yonder?"

"I did not."

"I begin to have hopes of you. And learning it from me, you made
up your mind on the spur of the moment--your business being so
important--to pay him a friendly visit, despite the strangeness of the
hour for a familiar call?"

"You've hit it," said Gautran.

John Vanbrugh pondered a while. These direct answers, given

without hesitation, puzzled him. He had expected to meet with
prevarication, and he was receiving, instead, straightforward
confidence.

"You are not afraid," he said, "to speak the truth to me, Gautran?"

"I am not."

"But I am a stranger to you."

"That's true."

"Why, then, do you confide in me?"

 It was Gautran's turn now to pause, but he soon replied, with a
sinister look which John Vanbrugh, in the darkness, could not see:

"Because, after what passes between us this night, I am sure you

will not betray me."

"Good," said Vanbrugh; "then it is plain you sought me

deliberately, because you think I can in some way serve you."

"Yes, because you can in some way serve me--that is why I am

here."

"Then you intend to hide nothing from me?"

"Nothing--for the reason I have given."

A flash of lightning seemed to strike the spot on which he and

Gautran were conversing, and he waited for the thunder. It came--
long, deep, and threatening.

"There is a terrible storm somewhere," he said.

"It does not matter," rejoined Gautran, with a shudder, "so long as
a man is not alone. Don't mind my coming so close. I have walked
many a mile to find you. I have not a friend in the world but you."

"Not even the Advocate?"

"Not even him. He will see me no more."

"He told you that last night?"

"Yes."

"But how did you get to him, Gautran? You did not enter by the
gates."
 "No; I dropped over the wall at the back. Tell me. It is but fair; I
answer you honestly enough. What are you watching his house for?
A man does not do as you are doing, on such black nights as this,
for idle pastime."

"No, indeed, Gautran! I also have business with him. And

strangely enough, you, whom I met in the flesh for the first time
within these last twenty-four hours, are indirectly concerned in it."

"Am I? Strange enough, as you say. But it will not matter after to-
night."

Some hidden meaning in Gautran's tone struck warningly upon

John Vanbrugh, and caused him to bestow a clearer observance
upon Gautran's movements from this moment.

"There is a thing I wish to know, Gautran," he said. "Between

vagabonds like ourselves there is no need for concealment. It is a
delicate question, but you have been so frank with me that I will
venture to ask it. Besides, there are no witnesses, and you will not,
therefore, incriminate yourself. This girl, Madeline, whose spirit
follows you----"

Vanbrugh hesitated. The question he was about to ask trembled

on his lips, and he scarcely knew how to give it shape in words that
would not provoke an outbreak on the part of Gautran. He had no
desire to come into open collision with this ruffian, of whose designs
upon himself he was inwardly warned. Gautran, with brutal
recklessness, assisted him.

"You want to know if I killed her?"

"Why, yes--though you put it roughly."

"What matter? Well, then, she died at my hands."

 John Vanbrugh recoiled from the murderer in horror, and in a
suppressed tone asked:

"When the Advocate defended you, did he know you were guilty?"

"Aye. We kept the secret to ourselves. It was cleverly worked,

was it not?"

"And last night," continued John Vanbrugh, "he received you in

his study?"

"Aye--and gave me liquor, and food, and money. Listen to it." He

rattled the gold pieces in the palms of his hands. "Look you. I have
answered questions enough. I answer no more for a while. It is my
turn now."

"Proceed, Gautran," said Vanbrugh; "I may satisfy you or not,

according to my whim."

"You'll satisfy me, or I'll know the reason why. There is no harm in
what I am going to say. You are a stranger in these parts--there is
no offence in that, is there?"

"None. Yes, I am a stranger in these parts. Heavens! what a flash!

The storm is coming nearer."

"All the better. You will hardly believe that I have been bothering
myself about the colour of your hair. I hate red-haired men. Yours,
now. Is there any offence in asking the colour of it?"

"None. My hair is black."

Gautran's eyes glittered and a flash of lightning illuminated his

face, and revealed to Vanbrugh the savage and ruthless look which
shone there.
 "And your height and build, about the same as mine," said
Gautran. "Let us strike a bargain. I have gold--you have none. I have
taken a fancy to your clothes; I will buy them of you. Two gold
pieces in exchange for them, and mine thrown in."

"The clothes of a murderer," said Vanbrugh, slowly retreating as

Gautran advanced upon him. "Thank you for nothing. Not for two
hundred gold pieces, poor as I am. Keep off. Do not come so near to
me."

"Why not? You are no better than I. Three gold pieces! That
should content you."

"You have my answer, Gautran. Leave me, I have had enough of

you."

"You will have had more than enough before I have done with
you," said Gautran, and Vanbrugh was satisfied now, from the man's
brutal tones, that it was a deadly foe who stood within a few inches
of him, "if you do not do as I bid you. Say, done and done; you had
better. By fair means or foul I mean to have what I want."

"Not by fair means, you murderous villain. Be warned. I am on

my guard."

"If you will have it, then!" cried Gautran, and with a savage shout
he threw himself upon Vanbrugh.

So sudden and fierce was the attack that Vanbrugh could not
escape from it; but although he was no match for Gautran in
strength, he had had, in former years, some experience in wrestling
which came to his aid now in this terrible crisis. The struggle that
ensued was prolonged and deadly, and while the men were locked in
each other's arms, the storm broke immediately over their heads.
The thunder pealed above them, the lightning played about their
forms.
 "You villain!" gasped Vanbrugh, as he felt himself growing weaker.
"Have you been paid by the Advocate to do this deed?"

"Yes," answered Gautran, between his clenched teeth; "he is the

fiend's agent, and I am his! He bade me kill you. Your last moment
has come!"

"Not yet," cried Vanbrugh, and by a supreme and despairing

effort he threw Gautran clear from him, and stood again on the
defensive.

Simultaneously with the movement a flash of forked lightning

struck the tree against which Vanbrugh had been leaning when
Gautran first accosted him, and cleft it in twain; and as Gautran was
about to spring forward, a huge mass of timber fell upon him with
fatal force, and bore him to the earth--where he lay imprisoned,
crushed and bleeding to death.
 CHAPTER V
FATHER CAPEL DISCOVERS GAUTRAN IN HIS
PERIL

Father Capel was wending his way slowly over the hill from the
bedside of the sick woman whom he had attended for two nights in
succession. On the first night she was in a state of delirium, and
Father Capel could not arouse her to a consciousness of surrounding
things. In her delirium she had repeatedly uttered a name which had
powerfully interested him. "Madeline! Madeline! my Madeline," she
moaned again and again. "Is it possible," thought the priest, "that
the girl whose name she utters with agonised affection is the poor
child who was so ruthlessly murdered?" On this, the second night,
the woman whose last minutes on earth were approaching, was
conscious, and she made certain disclosures to Father Capel which,
veiled as they were, had grievously disturbed his usually serene
mood. She had, also, given him a mission to perform which did not
tend to compose his mind. He had promised faithfully to obey her,
and they were to meet again within a few hours. To his earnest
request that she would pray with him, she had impatiently
answered:

"There will be time enough after I have seen the man you have
promised to bring with you. I shall live till then."

So he had knelt by her bedside and had prayed for her and for
himself, and for all the erring. His compassionate heart had room for
them all.
 For twenty miles around there was no man better loved than he.
His life had been reproachless, and his tender nature never turned
from the performance of a good deed, though it entailed suffering
and privation upon himself. These were matters not to be considered
when duty beckoned to him. A poor man, and one who very often
deprived himself of a meal in the cause of charity. A priest in the
truest sense of the word.

Seldom, in the course of a long, merciful, and charitable career,

had he met with so much cause to grieve as on the present
occasion. In the first place, because it was an added proof to the
many he had received that a false step in life, in the taking of which
one human being caused another to suffer, was certain to bring at
some time or other its own bitter punishment; in the second place,
because in this particular instance, the punishment, and the remorse
that must surely follow, were as terrible as the mind of man could
conceive.

His road lay towards the hill upon which the desperate conflict
between John Vanbrugh and Gautran was taking place. There was
no occasion for him to cross this hill; by skirting its base he could
follow the road he intended to take. But as he approached the spot,
the wind bore to him, in moments when the fury of the storm was
lulled, cries which sounded in his ears like cries of pain and despair
They were faint, and difficult to ascribe to any precise definite
cause; they might be the cries of an animal, but even in that case it
was more than likely that Father Capel would have proceeded in
their direction. Presently, however, he heard a human cry for help;
the word was distinct, and it decided his movements. Without
hesitation he began to climb the hill.

As he approached nearer and nearer to the spot on which the

struggle was proceeding, there was no longer room to doubt its
nature.
 "Holy Mother!" murmured the priest, quickening his steps, "will
the evil passions of men never be stilled? It seems as if murder were
being done here. Grant that I am not too late to avert the crime!"

Then came the terrific lightning-flash, followed immediately by

Gautran's piercing scream as he was struck down by the tree.

"Who calls for help?" cried Father Capel, in a loud voice, but his
words were lost in the peals of thunder which shook the earth and
made it tremble beneath his feet. When comparative silence reigned,
he shouted again:

"Who calls for help? I am a priest, and tender it."

Gautran's voice answered him:

"Here--here! I am crushed and dying!"

This appeal was not coherently made, but the groans which
accompanied it guided Father Capel to the spot upon which Gautran
lay. He felt amid the darkness and shuddered at the touch of blood,
and then he clasped Gautran's right hand. The tree had fallen across
the murderer's legs, and had so crushed them into the earth that he
could not move the lower part of his body; his chest and arms were
free. A heavy branch had inflicted a terrible gash on his forehead,
and it was from this wound that he was bleeding to death.

"Who are you?" said Father Capel, kneeling by the dying man,
"that lies here in this sad condition? I cannot see you. Is this
Heaven's deed, or man's?"

"It is Heaven's," gasped Gautran, "and I am justly punished."

"I heard the sounds of a struggle between two men. Are you one
of those who were fighting in the midst of this awful darkness?"

"Yes, I am one."
 "And the design," continued Father Capel, "was murder. You do
not answer me; your silence is sufficient confirmation. Are you hurt
much?"

"I am hurt to death. In a few minutes I shall be in eternal fire

unless you grant me absolution and forgiveness for my crimes."

"Speak first the truth. Were you set upon, or were you the
attacker in this evil combat?"

"I attacked him first."

"Then he may be dead!" exclaimed Father Capel, and rising

hastily to his feet, he peered into the darkness, and felt about with
his hands, and called aloud to know if the other man was conscious.
"This is horrible," said the priest, in deep perplexity, scarcely
knowing what it was best to do; "one man dying, another in all
likelihood dead."

He turned as if about to go, and Gautran, divining his intention,

cried in a tone of agony:

"Do not leave me, father, do not leave me!"

"Truly," murmured the priest, "it seems to me that my present

duty is more with the living than the dead." He knelt again by the
side of Gautran. "Miserable wretch, if the man you attacked be dead,
you have murdered him, and you have been smitten for your crime.
It may not be the only sin that lies upon your soul."

"It is not, it is not," groaned Gautran. "My strength is deserting

me; I can hardly speak. Father, is there hope for a murderer? Do not
let me die yet. Give me something to revive me. I am fainting."

"I have nothing with me to restore your strength. To go for wine,

and for assistance to remove this heavy timber which imprisons you-
-my weak arms cannot stir it--cannot be accomplished in less than
half an hour. It will be best, perhaps, for me to take this course; in
the meantime, pray, miserable man, with all the earnestness of your
heart and soul, for Divine forgiveness. What is your name?"

"I am Gautran," faintly answered the murderer.

Father Capel's frame shook under the influence of a strong

agitation.

"From the bedside of the woman I have left within the hour," he
murmured, "to this poor sinner who has but a few minutes to live!
The hand of God is visible in it."

He addressed himself to the dying man:

"You are he who was tried for the murder of Madeline, the flower-
girl?"

"I am he," moaned Gautran.

"Hearken to me," said Father Capel. "For that crime you were
tried and acquitted by an earthly tribunal, which pronounced you
innocent. But you are now about to appear before the Divine throne
for judgment; and from God nothing can be hidden. He sees into the
hearts of men. Who is ready--as you but now admitted to me--to
commit one murder, and who, perhaps, has committed it, for, from
the silence, I infer that the body of your victim lies at no great
distance, will not shrink from committing two. Answer me truly, as
you hope for mercy. Were you guilty or innocent of the murder of
Madeline?"

"I was guilty," groaned Gautran. "Wretch that I am, I killed her. I
loved her, father--I loved her!"

Gautran, from whose lips these words had come amid gasps of
agony, could say no more; his senses were fast leaving him.
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