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1. Introduction
Numerical models are primary tools used for weather forecast and climate projections.
Richardson (1922) made the first effort to predict weather numerically. Subsequently, a
number of simple numerical and analytical models were proposed to explain the general
circulation of the atmosphere (e.g., Charney, 1948; Eady, 1949; Philips, 1956; Matsuno, 1966;
Gill, 1980). The present state-of-the-art models are constantly being evaluated and refined
with the help of observations and theory to better understand the earth’s weather and
climate. Our gradual progress in developing and utilizing complex numerical models have
lead to a hierarchy of models: i) atmospheric global climate models (AGCMs, Smagornisky
et al., 1965; Benwell and Bretherton, 1968; Phillips and Shukla, 1973; Manabe, 1975; Simmons
and Bengtsson, 1984); ii) coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs (Manabe and Bryan, 1969); iii)
hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic regional models (Wang and Halpern, 1970; Dudhia, 1993);
(iv) cloud-system resolving models with regional domains (Grabowski et al. 1998;
Grabowski and Moncrieff, 2001) and global domains (Miura et al., 2007; Satoh et al., 2008). A
comprehensive review of the present day numerical models can be found in Tao and
Moncrieff (2009).
Each category of model has advantages and disadvantages in terms of area coverage, spatial
resolution, computational efficiency, and the representations of the physical processes; i.e.,
convection, microphysics, radiation, and surface exchange. Typically, regional models have
higher resolution albeit a limited computational domain. On the other hand, GCMs with
lower resolution cut the advantage of global coverage. A recent development is the
introduction of tropical channel models (TCMs) which are defined as models that are global
in the zonal direction but bounded in the meridional direction. A TCM has the following
considerable advantages over the aforementioned modeling approaches: (1) A standard
regional model needs boundary conditions in the zonal and the meridional directions,
whereas a TCM is continuous in the east-west direction and thereby isolates the influences
that arrive solely from the meridional boundaries (i.e., extratropics). It also allows free
circumnavigation of tropical modes in the zonal direction. (2) The use of lateral boundary
conditions only in the meridional direction enables a controlled quantification of the effects
of extratropical disturbances on the tropics. 3) TCMs with nonhydrostatic dynamical cores
4 Climate Models
can have higher resolution and more sophisticated physics compared to GCMs. This is
essential to capture the multi-scale organized convection in the tropics and its influence on
the general circulation (Arakawa and Schubert, 1974; Chen et al., 1996; Houze, 2004;
Moncrieff, 2010).
The objective of this chapter is to describe several TCMs that have been developed recently
with an emphasis on their applications for the simulation and understanding of the tropical
mean state and variabilty including the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), tropical cyclones
(TCs) and double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ).
Section 2 describes the models, data, and the design of the numerical simulations. Section 3
includes diagnoses of the simulations from three different TCMs. Section 4 summarizes the
results along with the implications and limitations of the tropical channel model approach.
2. Model
We describe three different TCMs; two of them are constructed based on two different non-
hydrostatic mesoscale models, and the third one is based on a hydrostatic GCM.
The model domains and the simulations are shown in Fig.1 and Table 1, respectively. The
simulation 1DOM, with a model domain of 21°S-21°N, has a horizontal resolution of 111 km
(D1 in Fig. 1). This is an ideal set up to study the intraseasonal varibility like the MJO which
is of global scale in the zonal direction (Madden and Julian, 1971, 1972; Li and Zhou, 2009),
and most of its variance is confined within the 20° latitude zones (Zhang and Dong, 2004).
The purpose of the option of a two-way nested inner domain of 37 km over the Indian and
western Pacific Oceans (D2 in Fig. 1) is to assess the effect of increasing horizontal
resolution. This is our simulation 2DOM. Both simulations were integrated for four months
from 1 March to 30 June, 2002, with sea surface temperature (SST) prescribed from
observations (see section 2.4).
Fig. 1. Outer domain for the TMM5 (D1, 0-360°, 21°S-21°N) and the nested domain
(D2, 37-183°E, 11°S-11°N). Domains D1 and D2 have resolutions of 111 km and 37 km,
respectively.
scheme (Hong et al., 2006), and Noah land surface model (Chen and Dudhia, 2001). Note that
the Betts-Miller scheme (BM, Betts and Miller, 1986) available within the MM5 differs from the
Betts-Miller scheme (BMJ, Janjic, 1994) available within the WRF.
Fig. 2. Model domains for the tropical channel WRF (D1, 0°-360°, 30°S-45°N) and the nested
domains (D2, 79°-183°E, 21°S-16°N and D3, 90°-157°E, 6°S-10°N). Domains D1, D2, and D3
have resolutions of 36 km, 12 km and 4 km, respectively. The simulation from 1996 to 2000
includes only the outer domain. The southern boundary was further moved to 45°S for the
simulation from 1 December 1999 to 1 January 2006. The domain for the TMM5 is also marked
here by the dashed lines (0°-360°, 21°S-21°N). See the text and Table 2 for further details.
The simulations using the TWRF are listed in Table 2. The simulation 1DOM in Table 2 is
used to document the mean state. A similar multi-year simulation with a larger domain
(1DOM_2 in Table 2) is also considered to evaluate its skill in capturing double ITCZ and
tropical cyclones. Two other experiments (2DOM and 3DOM in Table 2) document the effect
of increased horizontal resolution over the Indo-Pacific warm pool region.
the model. To overcome this problem, a GCM-based framework, in which the boundary
conditions come from the parallel simulation (‘control’) of the same model can be used. Such
a GCM-based framework also presents a global view of the atmospheric variabilty and can
be used for forecasting.
The GCM used is the atmosphere-only ECHAM4, which captures the tropical variability
reasonably well (Sperber et al., 2005; Lin et al., 2006; Zhang et al., 2006). The model is
integrated for 20 years using the prescribed monthly SST. This is our control simulation
(‘control’ in Table 3). In the other experiment (‘NS’ in Table 3), the model prognostic
variables are nudged toward the ‘controlled’ annual cycle state over the 20°-30° latitudinal
zone (red in Fig. 3) to remove the extratropical influences without interfering with the
influences from the zonal direction. By comparing the simulations in the control and the NS
experiments, the influences of the extratropics on the tropics can be estimated.
Fig. 3. Schematic diagram of the numerical experiments in which the prognostic variables in
20°-30° latitude zones (red) are relaxed toward the controlled climatological annual cycle.
See text and Table 3 for further details.
2.4 Data
Model validation uses a number of observations and reanalyses data. They include: the
NCEP-NCAR Re-analysis (Kalnay et al., 1996) winds; The European Centre for Medium-
Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-years Re-analysis (ERA40) winds (Uppala et al.,
2005); Surface winds from the European Remote Sensing (ERS) satellites (Bentamy et al.,
1999) and the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis (NCEP2, Kanamitsu et al., 2002); And two
precipitation datasets including the merged analysis of precipitation (CMAP; Xie and
Arkin, 1997), and the global precipitation climatological project (GPCP, Huffman et al.,
1997) combined precipitation dataset.
8 Climate Models
The NCEP global tropospheric analyses (final or ‘FNL’ data, 1°x1°, 6 hourly) provide initial
and lateral boundary conditions for the TMM5. The SSTs for TMM5 are also from this
reanalysis, which contain intraseasonal fluctuations. The initial and boundary conditions of the
TWRF are from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis. The SSTs for TWRF are from the Atmospheric
Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP; 1°x1°, 6-hourly; Taylor et al., 2000). For brevity, both
reanalysis and CMAP/GPCP precipitation will be referred to as “observations”.
3. Results
3.1 Tropical MM5 (TMM5)
The TMM5 simulations show considerable ability to capture an MJO event in comparison to
most GCMs (Slingo et al., 1996; Lin et al., 2006; Zhang et al. 2006; Kim et al., 2009). The MJO
event appeared in April-May 2002 (Fig. 4a), with the eastward propagating zonal wind
anomalies switching from easterlies to westerlies on intraseasonal timescales. This event
occured during a season in which the MJO is closest to the equator but, on average, is
weaker than in other seasons (Zhang and Dong, 2004). After initiation, however, it
propagated eastward at a speed slightly faster than the average phase speed of the MJO (5
m s-1, marked by a straight line in Fig. 4a).
The start time (1 March) of the TMM5 simulations is about two months before the initiation
of the MJO phase with active deep convection and low-level westerlies in May over the
Indian Ocean. This choice of start time assesses the model’s capability to reproduce the
initiation of the MJO event, namely, the intraseasonal transition from low-level easterlies to
westerlies (or from convectively inactive to active periods). In numerical models, forecast of
future development of the MJO tends to have greater predictability when the MJO is already
present at the initial time (Jones et al., 2000). Nevertheless, numerical experiments suggested
predictability limit is about 10-15 days for rainfall, and about 25-30 days for upper-level
winds (Waliser et al., 2003).
The results from the simulations 1DOM and 2DOM (Table 1) are shown in Fig. 4b and Fig.
4c, respectively. Simulated zonal winds at 850 hPa (hereafter U850) in D1 (middle panel)
exhibits the same intraseasonal switch between easterly and westerly anomalies and
eastward propagation over the Indian Ocean. Over the western Pacific, however, it moves
faster than in reanalysis. This problem appears to be partially remedied by including the
higher resolution nested domain D2 (Fig. 4c). In both simulations, the amplitudes of the
anomalies are larger than that in reanalysis. Notice that the westward propagating synoptic-
scale westerly anomalies embedded in the MJO envelope over the Indian Ocean are
captured by the simulation with the nested domain (2DOM in Table 1). These detailed
structures in simulated anomalies are perhaps due to the higher resolution of the model.
The most interesting result from this simulation is that the initiation of the MJO event over
the Indian Ocean is reproduced by the model at about the same time as shown by reanalysis
two months after the model initial time. The MJO is thought to be unpredictable beyond two
to three weeks (e.g., Waliser et al., 2003). If this is correct, then the reproduction of the U850
anomalies by TMM5 cannot be attributed to the initial conditions.
The above results lead to a hypothesis that this MJO event is generated by the influences
from the lateral boundaries. This hypothesis is supported by a series of sensitivity tests that
Tropical Channel Model 9
demonstrate that the simulated MJO initiation is critically dependent on the time-varying
lateral boundary conditions from the reanalysis (Ray et al., 2009). When such lateral
boundary conditions are replaced by time-independent conditions, the model fails to
reproduce the MJO initiation. In particular, the diagnoses of the zonal momentum budget
for the MJO initiation region reveals that the advection by meridional winds is important
prior to the initiation of this MJO (Ray and Zhang, 2010).
Fig. 4. Time-longitude diagrams of daily U850 anomalies (m s-1) averaged over 10°S-10°N
from the (a) NCEP-NCAR reanalysis (NNR), (b) TMM5 single domain simulation (1DOM in
Table 1), and (c) TMM5 nested domain simulation (2DOM in Table 1). A 3-day running
mean is applied.
problems with the model physics (Tulich et al., 2011; Murthi et al., 2011). Nevertheless,
the model reasonably captures the initiation of certain MJO events that are influenced by
the extratropics (Ray et al., 2011), and genesis of tropical cyclones from easterly waves
(see section 3.2.3).
Fig. 5. Annual mean rainfall (mm day-1) during 1996-2000 from the (a) CMAP (b) GPCP and
(c) TWRF simulation 1DOM in Table 2.
Figure 6 shows the seasonal cycles in SST (shaded) and surface wind divergence (contoured)
over the equatorial eastern Pacific (100°W-140°W). Note that our simulation period includes
the strong ENSO event of 1997-98 (McPhaden, 1999). During March-April, the convergence
south and north of the equator is captured well by the model. Over the equator, the
observations show weak convergence, but the simulation indicates divergence. During
boreal summer, the model shows much stronger convergence south of the equator
compared to the observations. Overall, the TWRF has a distinct double ITCZ and no
significant improvement occurred when nested domains were employed.
Fig. 6. Seasonal cycles of SST (shaded, °C) and surface wind divergence (contours, 106 s-1)
from the (a) ERS, (b) ERA40, (c) NCEP2, and (d) TWRF. All are averaged over the eastern
Pacific (100°W-140°W) during the period 1996-2000. Solid (dashed) contours represent
convergence (divergence).
different ocean basins. The error in the distribution is presumably due to the error in the
model’s easterly wave climatology that is intimately linked to the genesis of TCs (Landsea,
1993; Frank and Roundy, 2006). The model greatly overestimates the number of storms over
the western Pacific (Fig. 7a), but underestimates over the north Atlantic (Fig. 7c). The model
also overestimates over the eastern Pacific (Fig. 7b). Overall, while the TWRF simulation
captures the global and seasonal distribution of tropical cyclones, their numbers are
overestimated.
However, the simulation with a nested domain of 12 km over the Atlantic during the 2005
hurricane season produces resonable cyclone statistics (Fig. 8, Done et al., 2011). Compared
to 27 observed tropical storms, the model produces 29 storms, indicating great improvement
with the increase in the horizontal resolution.
Fig. 7. Histogram of TC genesis events versus latitude for the TWRF (sold) and observations
(dashed) over the (a) NW Pacific, (b) NE Pacific, and (c) N Atlantic. The total number of
genesis events are indicated next to the corresponding histogram. (From Tulich et al., 2011).
Fig. 8. Initial locations (black circles) and tracks (blue lines) of tropical cyclones in the
Atlantic Basin during 2005 in (top) the IBTrACS dataset and (bottom) TWRF simulation.
(From Done et al., 2011).
Tropical Channel Model 13
Fig. 9. (left) Mean zonal winds at 850 hPa (U850, m s-1, shaded) and at 200 hPa (U200, m s-1,
contoured). (right) Mean precipitation (mm day-1, shaded) and OLR (W m-2, contoured). All
are averaged over 20 years. Contour intervals are 4 m s-1 for U200, and 10 W m-2 for OLR.
For U200, solid (dashed) lines represent westerlies (easterlies).
14 Climate Models
4. Conclusion
Tropical channel models (TCMs) are defined as models that are global in the zonal direction
but bounded in the meridional direction. Such a model can be constructed using existing
regional models or even the GCMs. Two TCMs based on regional models MM5 and WRF,
and the third one based on the ECHAM4 GCM, were described. Although all three TCMs
are atmosphere only, they could be coupled to an ocean model. Therefore the TCM is a
unique tool to study the tropics and its interactions with the extratropics.
The simulations using TCMs are far from perfect. There are biases in the mean state, ITCZ,
MJO, and other tropical modes. The gross fetures of an MJO event are reproduced after two
months from the start of simulation using the TCM based on MM5 (TMM5). This is well
beyond the usual MJO predictability limit of 15-20 days associated with global models
(Waliser et al., 2003). The TCM simulations are forced by presecribed boundary conditions,
and are not initial value problems. Longer integration of another TCM based on WRF
(TWRF) does not lead to better tropical variabilty compared to that in GCMs. This is
unexpected since, compared to a GCM, a TCM simulation has the added constraint of
specified meridional boundary conditions. The error in the mean state is a possible reason
for the poor representation of tropical variabilty in TWRF. It is not known to what extent the
error in the mean state inhibits tropical variabilty, although it is likely to be model
dependent.
These studies suggest a new practice in tropical prediction: a high-resolution domain of the
tropics nested within a relatively coarse-resolution global model. The latter is known to
suffer less from deficiencies in cumulus parameterizations in the extratropics because of the
strong dynamic large-scale control of convection there. This approach of global nested
domains, currently being explored by some modeling groups, permits two-way tropical-
extratropical interactions with a more precise treatment of tropical convection and much
more computational efficiency than a global high-resolution model. The results call for
further attention to the untapped potential of high-resolution nonhydrostatic models
(Moncrieff et al., 2007) in the simulation and forecasting of tropical atmospheric convection,
such as that undertaken within the WCRP-WWRP/THORPEX coordinated project, the Year
of Tropical Convection (YOTC, Waliser and Moncrieff, 2008; see www.ucar.edu/yotc).
5. Acknowledgment
Acknowledgment is made to the NCAR, which is sponsored by the National Science
Foundation, for making the TWRF model output available. The authors thank Shuyi Chen
and Joe Tenerelli, who helped build the TMM5. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data were
taken from NOAA/CDC. The NCEP ‘FNL’ data were taken from the NCAR’s mass storage.
This work was supported by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
(JAMSTEC), NASA (NNX07AG53G), and NOAA (NA09OAR4320075), which sponsor
research at the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC). This is IPRC contribution 823.
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University Press., Cambridge, pp. 37-62
18 Climate Models