State and prove multiplication theorem of probability

Statement: If events A and B are any two events, then

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵|𝐴).
Also, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)

Proof: Consider 𝐴 and 𝐵 are any two events then

By conditional probability,
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = ; 𝑃(𝐵) ≠ 0
𝑃(𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) --->(1)
Also,
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = ; 𝑃(𝐴) ≠ 0
𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) --->(2)
We know that 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴)
Hence, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵|𝐴).

Note: If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two independent events, then

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵).
Also, 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) and 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵).

Power failures
11. In studying the causes of power failures, these data have been gathered: 5% are due to
transformer damage, 80% are due to line damage, 1% involves both problems. Based on these
percentages, approximate the probability that a given power failure involves
(i) Line damage given that there is a transformer damage
(ii) Transformer damage given that there is line damage
(iii) Transformer damage but not line damage
(iv) Transformer damage given that there is no line damage
(v) Transformer damage or line damage
Solution:
Let 𝑇 be the power failure due to transformer damage
𝐿 be the power failure due to line damage
Given that, 𝑃(𝑇) = 5% = 0.05
𝑃(𝐿) = 80% = 0.8
𝑃(𝑇 ∩ 𝐿) = 1% = 0.01
(i) Probability of line damage given that there is a transformer damage
𝑃(𝐿 ∩ 𝑇) 0.01
𝑃(𝐿|𝑇) = = = 0.2 = 20%.
𝑃(𝑇) 0.05
(ii) Probability of transformer damage given that there is a line damage
𝑃(𝑇 ∩ 𝐿) 0.01
𝑃(𝑇|𝐿) = = = 0.0125 = 1.25%.
𝑃(𝐿) 0.8
(iii) Probability of transformer damage but not line damage
𝑃(𝑇 ∩ 𝐿 ) = 𝑃(𝑇) − 𝑃(𝑇 ∩ 𝐿)
= 0.05 − 0.01 = 0.04
= 4%
(iv) Probability of transformer damage given that there is no line damage
𝑃(𝑇 ∩ 𝐿) 0.04
𝑃(𝑇|𝐿) = = = 0.2 = 20%.
𝑃(𝐿) 1 − 0.8
(v) Probability of transformer damage or line damage
𝑃(𝑇 ∪ 𝐿) = 𝑃(𝑇) + 𝑃(𝐿) − 𝑃(𝑇 ∩ 𝐿)
= 0.05 + 0.8 − 0.01 = 0.84
= 84%.
 Study of water
12. In a study of water near power plants and other industrial plants that release waste water into
the water system it was found that 5% showed signs of chemical and thermal pollution, 40%
showed signs of chemical pollution, and 35% showed evidence of thermal pollution. Assume that
the results of the study accurately reflect the general situation. What is the probability that a stream
that shows some thermal pollution will also show signs of chemical pollution? What is the
probability that a stream showing chemical pollution will not show signs of thermal pollution?

Solution:
Let 𝐶 be the chemical pollution
and 𝑇 be the thermal pollution of water.
Given that
𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝑇) = 5% = 0.05
𝑃(𝐶) = 40% = 0.4
𝑃(𝑇) = 35% = 0.35
(i) The probability that a stream that shows some thermal pollution will also show signs of
chemical pollution, 𝑃(𝐶|𝑇)
𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝑇) 0.05
𝑃(𝐶|𝑇) = = = 0.1428.
𝑃(𝑇) 0.35
(ii) The probability that a stream showing chemical pollution will not show signs of thermal
pollution, 𝑃(𝑇|𝐶).
𝑃(𝑇 ∩ 𝐶) 𝑃(𝐶) − 𝑃(𝑇 ∩ 𝐶)
𝑃(𝑇|𝐶) = =
𝑃(𝐶) 𝑃(𝐶)
0.4 − 0.05
= .
0.4

13. Assume that in a nuclear accident 30% of the workers are exposed to LD50 and die; 40% of
the workers die; and 68% are exposed to LD50 or die.
(i) What is the probability that a randomly selected worker will die given that he exposed to LD50
?
(ii) what is the probability that a randomly selected worker will not die given that he is exposed to
LD50 ?
(iii) What is the probability that a randomly selected worker will die given that he is not exposed
to the LD50 ?
Solution:
Let 𝐴 be the workers are exposed to 𝐿𝐷
and 𝐵 be the workers who are dead
Given that 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 30% = 0.3
𝑃(𝐵) = 40% = 0.4
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 68% = 0.68
From the Venn diagram, 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.58
(i) The probability that a randomly selected worker will die given that he exposed to LD50
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴) 0.3
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = = = 0.517
𝑃(𝐴) 0.58
(ii) The probability that a randomly selected worker will not die given that he is exposed to LD50
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴) 𝑃(𝐴) − 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = =
𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐴)
0.28
= = 0.482
0.58
(iii) The probability that a randomly selected worker will die given that he is not exposed to the
LD50
 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴̅) 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴̅) = =
𝑃(𝐴̅) 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)
0.1
= = 0.238
0.42

Experiment of drawing a card

14. Define the Independence of two events. Consider the experiment of drawing a card from a
well-shuffled deck of 52 cards. The event A denote drawing a spade card and the event B denote
an honor (10, J, Q, K, A). Are the events A and B independent?
Solution:
We know that if 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent then
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)
Given that 𝐴 denote, drawing a spade
and 𝐵 denote, drawing an honor card
Therefore, 𝑃(𝐴) = = and 𝑃(𝐵) = =
⇒ 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵) = × =
Let 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 denote the number of spade cards which are honor card = 5
⇒𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) =
Hence,
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)
⇒ The given events, 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent.

15. Let 𝐴 and 𝐵 be events such that 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.5, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.7, what must be 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) equal for 𝐴
and 𝐵 to be independent?
Solution:
We know that if 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent then
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)
⇒𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.5 × 0.7 = 0.35.

16. Let A and B be events such that p( A)  0.6 , p ( B)  0.4 and p ( A  B )  0.8 . Are A and B
independent?
Solution:
Consider, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
= 0.6 + 0.4 − 0.8
= 0.2
Now, 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.6 × 0.4 = 0.24.
Therefore,
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ≠ 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)
Hence, 𝐴 and 𝐵 are not independent events.
 Serum Hepatitis
17. The probability that a unit of blood was donated by a paid donor is 0.67. If the donor was paid,
the probability of contracting serum hepatitis from the unit is 0.0144. If the donor was not paid
this probability is 0.0012. A patient receives a unit of blood. What is the probability of the patient’s
contracting serum hepatitis from this source?
Solution:
Let 𝐴 be the person who paid for donating the blood then
𝐴̅ be the person who is not paid for donating the blood.
𝐻 be the chance of getting serum hepatitis from the source.
Given that 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.67 ⇒ 𝑃(𝐴̅) = 1 − 0.67 = 0.33.
𝑃(𝐻|𝐴) = 0.0144
𝑃(𝐻|𝐴̅) = 0.0012
The probability of the patient’s contracting serum hepatitis from this source, 𝑃(𝐻).
⇒ 𝑃(𝐻) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐻|𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴̅) × 𝑃(𝐻|𝐴̅)
= 0.0101 = 1.01%.

18. Assume that there is a 50% chance of hard drive damage if a power line to which a computer
is connected is hit during an electrical storm. There is a 5% chance that an electrical storm will
occur on any given summer day in a given area. If there is a 0.1% chance that the line will be hit
during a storm, what is the probability that the line will be hit and there will be hard drive damage
during the next electrical storm in this area?
Solution:
Let 𝑆 be the occurrence of electric storm
𝐻 be the hitting of computer when there is electric storm
𝐷 be the damaging of hard drive when it is hit by the power line.
Given that, 𝑃(𝑆) = 5% = 0.05
𝑃(𝐻|𝑆) = 0.1% = 0.001
𝑃(𝐷|𝐻) = 50% = 0.5
The probability that the line will be hit and there will be hard drive damage during the next
electrical storm in this area is 𝑃(𝑆 ∩ 𝐻 ∩ 𝐷)
⇒ 𝑃(𝑆 ∩ 𝐻 ∩ 𝐷) = 𝑃(𝑆) × 𝑃(𝐻|𝑆) × 𝑃(𝐷|𝐻)
= 0.000025 = 0.0025%.
19. A foundry is producing cast iron parts to be used in the automatic transmissions of trucks.
There are two crucial dimensions to the part, A and B. Assume that if the part meets specifications
on dimension A then there is a 98% chance that it will also meet specifications on dimension B.
There is a 95% chance that it will also meet specifications on dimension A and a 97% chance that
it will meet specifications on dimension B. A part is randomly selected and inspected. What is the
probability that it will meet specifications on both dimensions?
Solution: Given that 𝐴 and 𝐵 are the crucial dimensions of the cast iron part.
Also, 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = 98% = 0.98
𝑃(𝐴) = 95% = 0.95
𝑃(𝐵) = 97% = 0.97.
The probability that the randomly selected iron part will meet specifications on both dimensions,
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
i.e., 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = 0.95 × 0.98
= 0.931 = 93.1%.

20. The use of plant appearance in prospecting for ore deposits is called geobotanical prospecting.
One indicator of copper is a small mint with a mauve-colored flower. Suppose that, for a given
region, there is a 30% chance that the soil has a high copper content and 23% chance that the mint
will be present there. If the copper content is high, there is a 70% chance that the mint will be
present.
(i) Find the probability that the copper content will be high and the mint will be present
(ii) Find the probability that the copper content will be high given that the mint is present.
Solution:
Let 𝐶 be the chance of containing higher copper content in the soil.
𝑀 be the chance of containing mint in the soil.
Given that, 𝑃(𝐶) = 30% = 0.3
𝑃(𝑀) = 23% = 0.23
𝑃(𝑀|𝐶) = 70% = 0.7
(i) The probability that the copper content will be high and the mint will be present
𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝑀) = 𝑃(𝐶) × 𝑃(𝑀|𝐶)
= 0.3 × 0.7 = 0.21
(ii) The probability that the copper content will be high given that the mint is present
𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝑀) 0.21
𝑃(𝐶|𝑀) = = = 0.913
𝑃(𝑀) 0.23

The Law of Total Probability:

Let 𝑆 be the sample space and let 𝐸 , 𝐸 , … , 𝐸 be 𝑛 mutually exclusive and exhaustive events
associated with a random experiment. If 𝐴 is any event which occurs with any of 𝐸 ’s where 𝑖 =
1, 2, … , 𝑛 then
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐸 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐸 ) + 𝑃(𝐸 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐸 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐸 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐸 )

⇒ 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐸 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐸 ).

Bayes’ Theorem
Let 𝑆 be the sample space and let 𝐸 , 𝐸 , … , 𝐸 be 𝑛 mutually exclusive and exhaustive events
associated with a random experiment. If 𝐴 is any event which occurs with any of 𝐸 ’s where 𝑖 =
1, 2, … , 𝑛 then
𝑃(𝐸 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐸 )
𝑃(𝐸 |𝐴) = .
∑ 𝑃(𝐸 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐸 )
Here, 𝑃(𝐸 ), 𝑃(𝐸 ), … , 𝑃(𝐸 ) are called Prior probabilities
and 𝑃(𝐴|𝐸 ), 𝑃(𝐴|𝐸 ), … , 𝑃(𝐴|𝐸 ) posterior probabilities.
 Printers in a computer center
22. A computer center has three printers A, B, and C, which print at different speeds. Programs
are routed to the first available printer. The probability that a program is routed to printers A, B
and C are 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1 respectively. Occasionally a printer will jam and destroy the printout.
The probability that printers A, B and C will jam are 0.01, 0.05 and 0.04 respectively. Your
program is destroyed when a printer jams. What is the probability that printer A is involved?
Printer B involved? Printer C involved?
Solution:
Let A be the program routed to printer A
B be the program routed to printer B
C be the program routed to printer C
and E be the program is destroyed when a printer jams.
Given that,
𝑃(𝐴) = 0.6, 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.3 and 𝑃(𝐶) = 0.1
𝑃(𝐸|𝐴) = 0.01, 𝑃(𝐸|𝐵) = 0.05 and 𝑃(𝐶|𝐸) = 0.04
(i) The probability of printer A involved in destroying the paper, 𝑃(𝐸|𝐴).
By Bayes’ theorem,
𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐸) =
𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐶)
= 0.24
(ii) The probability of printer B involved in destroying the paper, 𝑃(𝐵|𝐸).
By Bayes’ theorem,
𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐸) =
𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐶)
= 0.6
(iii) The probability of printer A involved in destroying the paper, 𝑃(𝐸|𝐴).
By Bayes’ theorem,
𝑃(𝐶) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐶)
𝑃(𝐶|𝐸) =
𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐶)
= 0.16
 Bolt Factory
23.In a bolt factory machines 𝑀 , 𝑀 and 𝑀 manufacture 25%, 35% and 40% of the total. Of
their output 5%, 4% and 2% are defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from the product and
is found to be defective. What are the probabilities that it was manufactured by machines 𝑀 , 𝑀
and 𝑀 ?
Solution:
Given that 𝑀 be the production of bolts from machine 1
𝑀 be the production of bolts from machine 2
𝑀 be the production of bolts from machine 3
and 𝐸 be the chances of getting defective bolt.
⇒ 𝑃(𝑀 ) = 25% = 0.25
𝑃(𝑀 ) = 35% = 0.35
𝑃(𝑀 ) = 40% = 0.4
Also, 𝑃(𝐸|𝑀 ) = 5% = 0.05
𝑃(𝐸|𝑀 ) = 4% = 0.04
𝑃(𝐸|𝑀 ) = 2% = 0.02.
(i) The probability that the defective bolt was manufactured by 𝑀
By Bayes’ theorem
𝑃(𝑀 ) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝑀 )
𝑃(𝑀 |𝐸) =
𝑃(𝑀 ) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝑀 ) + 𝑃(𝑀 ) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝑀 ) + 𝑃(𝑀 ) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝑀 )
0.0125
= = 0.36
0.0345

(ii) The probability that the defective bolt was manufactured by 𝑀

By Bayes’ theorem
𝑃(𝑀 ) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝑀 )
𝑃(𝑀 |𝐸) =
𝑃(𝑀 ) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝑀 ) + 𝑃(𝑀 ) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝑀 ) + 𝑃(𝑀 ) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝑀 )
0.014
= = 0.41
0.0345
(iii) The probability that the defective bolt was manufactured by 𝑀
By Bayes’ theorem
𝑃(𝑀 ) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝑀 )
𝑃(𝑀 |𝐸) =
𝑃(𝑀 ) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝑀 ) + 𝑃(𝑀 ) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝑀 ) + 𝑃(𝑀 ) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝑀 )
0.008
= = 0.23
0.0345
24. A manufacturer firm produces steel pipes in three plants with daily production figure of
500,1000 and 2000 units respectively. According to past experience it is known that fraction of
defectives by these plants are respectively 3%, 7% and 5% respectively. If a pipe is selected from
day’s production and found to be defective, find out the probability that it came from (i) Plant I
(ii) Plant II (iii) Plant III.
Solution:
Let 𝐴 denote the plant I
𝐵 denote the plant II
𝐶 denote the plant III
The daily production of steel pipes from the three plants
= 500+1000+2000 = 3500
Given that, 𝑃(𝐴) = = 0.1429
𝑃(𝐵) = = 0.2857
𝑃(𝐶) = = 0.5714
Let 𝐸 be the event of getting a defective product
Given that, 𝑃(𝐸|𝐴) = 3% = 0.03
𝑃(𝐸|𝐵) = 7% = 0.07
𝑃(𝐸|𝐶) = 5% = 0.05
(i) The probability of getting defective product from plant I
𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐸) =
𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐶)
0.0043
= = 0.0813
0.0529
(ii) The probability of getting defective product from plant II
𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵|𝐸) =
𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐶)
0.02
= = 0.3781
0.0529
(iii) The probability of getting defective product from plant III
𝑃(𝐶) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐶)
𝑃(𝐶|𝐸) =
𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝐶)
0.0286
= = 0.5401
0.0529
 Blood Distribution in USA
21. The blood type distributions in the United States are 41% of type A, 9% of type B, 4% of type
AB and 46% of type O. It is estimated that during World War-II, 4% of inductees with type O
blood were typed as A; 88% of those with type A were correctly typed; 4% with type B blood
were typed as A; 10% with type AB were typed as A. A soldier was wounded and brought to
surgery. He was typed as having type A blood. What is the probability that one has true blood
type?
Solution:
Given that the probabilities of blood distributions of various blood groups are as follows:
𝑃(𝐴) = 41% = 0.41
𝑃(𝐵) = 9% = 0.09
𝑃(𝐴𝐵) = 4% = 0.04
𝑃(𝑂) = 46% = 0.46
Let 𝐸 be an event which is typed as type-A blood group
Hence, the probabilities of various blood groups typed as 𝐴.
𝑃(𝐸|𝐴) = 88% = 0.88
𝑃(𝐸|𝐵) = 4% = 0.04
𝑃(𝐸|𝐴𝐵) = 10% = 0.1
𝑃(𝐸|𝑂) = 4% = 0.04
The probability that one soldier has true blood type (typed as type-A)
By Bayes’ theorem
𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐸|𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐸) =
𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐸|𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐸|𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐴𝐵)𝑃(𝐸|𝐴𝐵) + 𝑃(𝑂)𝑃(𝐸|𝑂)
= 0.93.

Production of Computer Chips

25. Companies P, Q, R produce 30%, 45% and 25% of the computer chips respectively. It is known
that 2%, 3% and 1% of the computer chips produced from P, Q, R are defective.
(a) What is the probability that the chip purchased is defective?
(b) If a computer is defective, what is the probability that this computer chip is produced by
company Q?
Solution:
Given that the probabilities of production of computer chips by the companies P, Q and R.
𝑃(𝑃) = 30% = 0.3
𝑃(𝑄) = 45% = 0.45
𝑃(𝑅) = 25% = 0.25
Let 𝐸 be the event of producing defective chips.
Also, the probabilities of defective chips from each company
𝑃(𝐸|𝑃) = 2% = 0.02
𝑃(𝐸|𝑄) = 3% = 0.03
𝑃(𝐸|𝑅) = 1% = 0.01
(a) The probability that the chip purchased is defective is
𝑃(𝑃)𝑃(𝐸|𝑃) + 𝑃(𝑄)𝑃(𝐸|𝑄) + 𝑃(𝑅)𝑃(𝐸|𝑅)
= 0.3 × 0.02 + 0.45 × 0.03 + 0.25 × 0.01
= 0.022 = 2.2%.
(b) The probability that this computer chip is produced by company Q is
𝑃(𝑄) × 𝑃(𝐸|𝑄)
𝑃(𝑄|𝐸) =
𝑃(𝑃)𝑃(𝐸|𝑃) + 𝑃(𝑄)𝑃(𝐸|𝑄) + 𝑃(𝑅)𝑃(𝐸|𝑅)
= 0.61 = 61%.