Investment Management 2024 2
Investment Management 2024 2
2. What is speculation?
• Speculation involves engaging in high-risk investments with the aim of achieving
significant short-term gains, often based on market trends rather than underlying economic
fundamentals.
• It is distinguished from traditional investment by its focus on price fluctuations and
timing the market, frequently resulting in higher volatility and uncertainty.
12. Distinguish between efficient market theory and random walk theory.
• Efficient market theory (EMT) posits that all available information is already reflected in
asset prices, thereby making it impossible to outperform the market consistently; it assumes
rational investor behavior and fast information dissemination.
• Random walk theory suggests that stock prices change randomly, meaning past
movements cannot predict future prices, thereby supporting the idea that market movements are
unpredictable.
14. If a portfolio has a return of 12% and a beta of 1.4, and if the risk-free rate is 2%, then what
is its Treynor ratio?
• The Treynor ratio is calculated as:
\text{Treynor Ratio} = \frac{\text{Portfolio Return} - \text{Risk-Free Rate}}{\beta}
• Plugging in the values,
\frac{12\% - 2\%}{1.4} = \frac{10\%}{1.4} \approx 7.14\%
This ratio indicates that for each unit of systematic risk, the portfolio generates approximately
7.14% return.
17. Calculate expected return of the investment given the following data:
Possible returns (%): 30, 40, 50, 60, 70
Probability: 0.10, 0.30, 0.40, 0.10, 0.10
• The expected return (ER) is calculated using the formula:
• The expected return (ER) is calculated using the formula:
ER = \sum (\text{Return} \times \text{Probability})
• Calculation:
(30 \times 0.10) + (40 \times 0.30) + (50 \times 0.40) + (60 \times 0.10) + (70 \times 0.10)
• This equals:
3 + 12 + 20 + 6 + 7 = 48\%
• Therefore, the expected return on the investment is 48%.
• This value represents the average return an investor can anticipate over the investment
period.
23. If the market portfolio yields an expected rate of return of 13% with a standard deviation of
25% and the risk-free rate of interest is 7%, what is the slope of the Capital Market Line (CML)?
• The Capital Market Line (CML) represents the risk-return trade-off for efficient portfolios
and is calculated as:
\text{Slope} = \frac{\text{Expected Market Return} - \text{Risk-Free Rate}}{\text{Standard Deviation
of Market Return}}
• Plugging in the values,
\text{Slope} = \frac{13\% - 7\%}{25\%} = \frac{6\%}{25\%} = 0.24
• Therefore, the slope of the CML is 0.24, indicating that for each 1% increase in risk
(standard deviation), the portfolio is expected to earn an additional 0.24% return.
• This slope serves as a benchmark for evaluating the performance of portfolios against the
market.
25. Why do people conduct investment? What are the factors which are favorable for making
investment in an economy?
• Capital Formation: Investment allows individuals and businesses to convert savings into
capital, which is then used for expanding operations and generating future income.
• Economic Growth: When investments are made in productive assets, they stimulate
economic activity, leading to higher GDP and improved living standards.
• Wealth Creation: Investment helps in the accumulation of wealth over time, providing a
hedge against inflation and ensuring long-term financial security.
• Income Generation: Regular returns from investments (like dividends, interest, or rental
income) offer an additional income stream beyond regular earnings.
• Risk Diversification: By investing in a diversified portfolio, individuals can spread risk
across various assets, reducing the overall risk exposure.
• Technological Advancement: Investments in research and development drive innovation
and technological progress, which are critical for modern economies.
• Employment Generation: Investment in industries and infrastructure leads to the creation
of new jobs and enhances the overall employment scenario.
• Improved Infrastructure: Public and private investments in infrastructure such as roads,
power, and communication boost productivity and economic efficiency.
• Favorable Government Policies: A supportive regulatory framework, tax incentives, and
stable monetary policies encourage investments by reducing uncertainties.
• Global Competitiveness: Investments in education, technology, and industries enhance a
country’s competitive edge in the global market, attracting foreign capital and improving export
potential.
26. Describe the key economic, industry, and company variables that an investor must monitor
as a part of fundamental analysis.
• Economic Variables: Investors should assess macroeconomic indicators such as GDP
growth, inflation, interest rates, and unemployment, as these factors determine the overall health of
the economy and influence corporate performance.
• Political & Regulatory Environment: Stability in government policies, regulatory
frameworks, and fiscal policies are critical in predicting economic trends and market conditions.
• Industry Analysis: Understanding the industry life cycle, competitive dynamics, market
demand, and supply conditions helps investors identify growth opportunities and potential risks
within a specific sector.
• Market Share and Competitive Position: Investors must examine a company’s market
share, competitive advantages, and the overall competitive landscape to evaluate its long-term
sustainability.
• Financial Health: A thorough review of financial statements—balance sheets, income
statements, and cash flow statements—reveals a company’s profitability, liquidity, and solvency.
• Management Quality: The expertise and track record of a company’s management team
are crucial in driving strategic initiatives and operational efficiency.
• Technological Capabilities: Investments in innovation, research and development, and
modern production techniques are key indicators of a company’s ability to maintain
competitiveness.
• Operational Efficiency: Metrics such as cost structure, capacity utilization, and
productivity ratios provide insight into a company’s operational performance.
• Valuation Metrics: Ratios like Price-to-Earnings (P/E), Price-to-Book (P/B), and Dividend
Yield help in determining whether a company’s stock is undervalued or overvalued compared to its
intrinsic value.
• Growth Prospects: Future earnings projections, market expansion potential, and
historical growth trends are vital for assessing whether a company will deliver long-term value to its
shareholders.
27. Explain: (a) Candlestick chart and (b) Point and Figure chart.
• (a) Candlestick Chart:
• A candlestick chart is a financial chart used to represent price movements of
securities over a given time period using “candlesticks” that show the open, high, low,
and close prices.
• Each candlestick consists of a body (showing the opening and closing prices)
and wicks (shadows) that indicate the highest and lowest prices reached during the
period.
• The color or shading of the candlestick (e.g., green for upward movement, red
for downward) helps in quickly identifying the market sentiment.
• Candlestick charts are popular among traders due to their ability to visually
represent price patterns and potential reversals.
• They can form various patterns like doji, engulfing, and hammer, which signal
market trends and help in decision-making.
• The chart is useful in short-term trading strategies as it reflects market
psychology through price action.
• It allows investors to identify support and resistance levels and trends,
providing actionable insights for entry and exit points.
• Candlestick charts facilitate quick visual analysis, which is particularly useful
during fast-moving markets.
• They are often combined with other technical indicators (e.g., moving averages)
for more comprehensive analysis.
• Overall, candlestick charts are a powerful tool in technical analysis for
predicting future price movements based on historical patterns.
• (b) Point and Figure Chart:
• A Point and Figure (P&F) chart is a method of charting price movements that
ignores the time element and focuses solely on price changes by using “X”s and “O”s
to represent upward and downward movements, respectively.
• It is constructed by plotting price changes that exceed a certain box size and by
using a predetermined reversal criterion to decide when to change from an “X” column
to an “O” column.
• The chart helps in filtering out minor price fluctuations, thus providing a clear
view of significant trends and reversals.
• P&F charts are particularly useful for identifying support and resistance levels
and long-term trends without the noise of time-based charts.
• They provide a simplified view of market movements, allowing investors to focus
on the essential price action.
• This type of chart is highly effective for trend analysis and for spotting
potential breakouts or breakdowns in the market.
• P&F charts are also used to identify chart patterns such as double tops, double
bottoms, and triangles, which can signal future price directions.
• The absence of time as a factor means that P&F charts are scale-independent
and adjust to different price levels automatically.
• They offer an intuitive visual representation that helps in determining when to
enter or exit positions based on clear breakout signals.
• In summary, the Point and Figure chart is a robust tool for long-term technical
analysis, providing clear trend signals and price targets free from the distractions of
time-based fluctuations.
17. Compute the standard deviation of returns for Hyderabad Industries Ltd.
25. Calculate the Beta of CRISIL stock using given price data.
(Requires statistical calculation using regression analysis of stock returns and market index
returns.)
• Step 1: Calculate Daily Returns: Compute percentage change in stock and index prices.
• Step 2: Compute Covariance: Measure how CRISIL’s returns vary with market returns.
• Step 3: Calculate Variance of Market Returns: Determine index price fluctuations.
• Step 4: Compute Beta Formula: Beta = Covariance (Stock, Market) / Variance (Market).
• Step 5: Interpretation: A Beta >1 means high volatility, while <1 indicates stability.
11. Distinguish between Efficient Market Theory and Random Walk Theory.
• Efficient Market Theory states that stock prices always reflect all available
information, making it impossible to beat the market consistently.
• Random Walk Theory suggests that stock prices follow an unpredictable pattern and
cannot be forecasted .
14. If a portfolio has a return of 12% and a beta of 1.4, and if the risk-free rate is 2%, then what
is its Treynor ratio?
• Treynor Ratio = (Portfolio Return - Risk-Free Rate) / Beta
• (12% - 2%) / 1.4 = 7.14 .
(Formatted as per your requested structure, referring to the study materials provided)
Formula:
Expected Return (ER) = (Return × Probability)
Calculation:
• (30 × 0.10) + (40 × 0.30) + (50 × 0.40) + (60 × 0.10) + (70 × 0.10)
• = 3 + 12 + 20 + 6 + 7
• ER = 48%
Interpretation:
• The expected return of the investment is 48%, meaning investors can anticipate an
average return of 48% based on historical probabilities .
20. Explain briefly different types of charts used for stock analysis.
• Line Chart: Represents closing prices over time, helping in identifying trends easily.
• Bar Chart: Shows open, high, low, and close prices for a given time period, providing a
clearer view of volatility.
• Candlestick Chart: Displays price movements using colored candlesticks, indicating
bullish or bearish trends.
• Point and Figure Chart: Focuses on price movements without considering time, useful for
identifying breakouts.
• Renko Chart: Uses fixed price movements rather than time intervals, filtering out market
noise.
• Heikin-Ashi Chart: Averages price data to smooth trends and reduce volatility noise .
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23. Compute the cost of equity capital under CAPM model.
Formula:
Cost of Equity (Ke) = Risk-Free Rate (Rf) + Beta (β) × Market Risk Premium (Rm - Rf)
Given Data:
• Risk-Free Rate (Rf) = 11%
• Beta (β) = 1.25
• Market Return (Rm) = 15%
Calculation:
• Ke = 11% + (1.25 × (15% - 11%))
• Ke = 11% + (1.25 × 4%)
• Ke = 11% + 5% = 16%
Interpretation:
• A higher beta results in a higher cost of equity, indicating that investors expect greater
returns for increased risk .
Answers to Part C Questions (24-27) from the 2022 Investment Management Question Paper
(Formatted as per your requested structure, referencing the study materials provided)
26. What do you mean by fundamental analysis? Discuss the various steps involved in
fundamental analysis.
• Definition:
• Fundamental analysis evaluates a company’s financial health, economic
conditions, and industry performance to determine its intrinsic value. It helps investors
make informed decisions based on financial and economic factors.
• Steps in Fundamental Analysis:
• Economic Analysis: Evaluates macroeconomic indicators like GDP growth,
inflation rates, interest rates, and government policies to determine overall economic
stability.
• Industry Analysis: Assesses the industry’s growth potential, competition,
regulatory environment, and technological advancements to identify profitable sectors.
• Company Analysis: Examines a company’s financial statements, management
efficiency, business model, and competitive advantages to gauge its long-term
prospects.
• Financial Statement Analysis: Analyzes balance sheets, profit and loss
statements, and cash flow statements to evaluate profitability, liquidity, and solvency.
• Valuation Techniques: Uses valuation models like Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio,
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), and Earnings Per Share (EPS) to estimate a company’s
fair value.
• Risk Assessment: Identifies risks such as market risks, credit risks, operational
risks, and external threats that may affect investment returns.
• Investment Decision: Based on the analysis, investors decide whether to buy,
hold, or sell a stock based on its potential for future growth.
• Continuous Monitoring: Fundamental analysis is not a one-time process;
investors must continuously review their investments based on changing economic and
financial conditions .
27. What is Technical Analysis? Discuss its assumptions and various trading strategies.
• Definition:
• Technical analysis involves predicting future stock price movements based on
historical price data, trading volumes, and chart patterns. It is widely used by traders to
make short-term investment decisions.
• Assumptions of Technical Analysis:
• Market Discounts Everything: All available information is reflected in stock
prices, making technical analysis a reliable tool for price prediction.
• Prices Move in Trends: Stocks follow identifiable upward, downward, or
sideways trends, which can be analyzed for investment decisions.
• History Repeats Itself: Past price movements provide insights into future
trends, as investor behavior tends to follow patterns.
• Trading Strategies in Technical Analysis:
• Momentum Trading: Investors buy stocks experiencing upward trends and sell
those in decline, capitalizing on momentum shifts.
• Breakout Trading: Traders buy when a stock breaks above resistance levels and
sell when it drops below support levels.
• Reversal Trading: Identifying points where a stock trend changes direction
using indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average
Convergence Divergence (MACD).
• Moving Average Strategy: Uses short-term and long-term moving averages
(e.g., 50-day and 200-day moving averages) to determine buy and sell signals.
• Candlestick Patterns: Traders analyze formations like Doji, Hammer, and
Engulfing patterns to predict market sentiment.
• Support and Resistance Levels: Buying near support and selling near
resistance helps maximize profits while minimizing losses.
• Chart Patterns: Using patterns like Head and Shoulders, Triangles, and Flags to
make trading decisions.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Measures whether a stock is overbought or
oversold, helping traders identify potential entry and exit points.
• MACD Indicator: Measures momentum changes and helps identify trend
reversals, commonly used in conjunction with moving averages.
• Fibonacci Retracement: Identifies price correction levels based on historical
price data, helping traders determine support and resistance levels .