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Reliability Prediction for
Microelectronics
Reliability Prediction for Microelectronics

Joseph B. Bernstein
Ariel University,
Israel

Alain A. Bensoussan
Toulouse,
France

Emmanuel Bender
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT),
Cambridge,
USA
This edition first published 2024
© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data applied for:

ISBN: HB: 9781394210930, ePDF: 9781394210947, ePub: 9781394210954

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 To our patient and dedicated wives
Rina Batya
Revital

To my wife Corinne, my son Edwin,

and to the memory of my parents, Myriem and Isaac Bensoussan
 vii

Contents

Author Biography xiii

Series Foreword xv
Preface xix
Scope xxi
Introduction xxiii

1 Conventional Electronic System Reliability Prediction 1

1.1 Electronic Reliability Prediction Methods 2
1.2 Electronic Reliability in Manufacturing, Production, and Operations 27
1.2.1 Failure Foundation 28
1.2.2 Reliability Foundational Models (Markovian, Gamma, Lévy,
Wiener Processes) 28
1.2.3 Correlation Versus Causation and Representativeness of Trackers 30
1.2.4 Functional Safety Standard ISO 26262 31
1.2.5 Additional Considerations 33
1.3 Reliability Criteria 34
1.3.1 The Failure Rate Curve for Electronic Systems 35
1.3.2 Basic Lifetime Distribution Models 38
1.4 Reliability Testing 42
1.4.1 Reliability Test Methods 42
1.4.2 Accelerated Testing 48

2 The Fundamentals of Failure 55

2.1 The Random Walk 56
2.1.1 Approximate Solution 58
2.1.2 Constant Velocity 59
2.2 Diffusion 61
2.2.1 Particle Diffusion 61
2.3 Solutions for the Diffusion Equation 63
viii Contents

2.3.1 Normal Distribution 64

2.3.2 Error Function Solution 65
2.3.3 Finite Thickness 66
2.3.4 Thermal Diffusion 67
2.4 Drift 69
2.5 Statistical Mechanics 70
2.5.1 Energy 71
2.6 Chemical Potential 74
2.6.1 Thermodynamics 76
2.7 Thermal Activation Energy 77
2.7.1 Arrhenius Relation 79
2.7.2 Einstein Relation 80
2.7.3 Magnitude of Energy 81
2.8 Oxidation and Corrosion 81
2.8.1 Reaction Rate 82
2.8.2 Limiting Time Scales 84
2.8.3 Material Properties 85
2.9 Vibration 85
2.9.1 Oscillations 86
2.9.2 Multiple Resonances 87
2.9.3 Random Vibration 88
2.10 Summary 89

3 Physics-of-Failure-based Circuit Reliability 91

3.1 Problematic Areas 92
3.1.1 Single-Failure Mechanism Versus Competing-Failure Mechanism 95
3.1.2 Acceleration Factor 98
3.1.3 An Alternative Acceleration Factor Calculation – Matrix Method 101
3.1.4 Single-Failure Mechanism Assumption: Conventional Approach 103
3.1.5 Failure Rate Calculations Assuming Multiple-Failure Mechanism 107
3.1.6 Constant-Failure-Rate Approximation/Justification 110
3.1.7 Exponential Distribution and Its Characterization 111
3.2 Reliability of Complex Systems 113
3.2.1 Drenick’s Theorem 117
3.3 Physics-of-Failure-based Circuit Reliability Prediction
Methodology 119
3.3.1 Methodology 120
3.3.2 Assembly, Materials and Processes, and Packaging 124
3.3.3 External Environment 125
3.3.4 PoF and Failure Mechanisms 126
 Contents ix

3.3.5 Key Considerations for Reliability Models in Emerging

Technologies 127
3.3.6 Input Data 128
3.3.7 Applicability of Reliability Models 130

4 Transition State Theory 133

4.1 Stress-Related Failure Mechanisms 134
4.2 Non-Arrhenius Model Parameters 138
4.2.1 Hot Carrier Injection (HCI) 142
4.2.2 Negative Apparent EA 146
4.2.3 Time-Dependent Dielectric Breakdown (TDDB) 150
4.2.3.1 Thermochemical E-Model 151
4.2.3.2 1/E Model (Anode-Hole Injection Model) 151
4.2.3.3 Power-Law Voltage VN-Model 152
4.2.3.4 Exponential E1/2-Model 154
4.2.3.5 Percolation Model 154
4.2.4 Stress-Induced Leakage Current (SILC) 156
4.2.5 Negative Bias Temperature Instability (NBTI) 159
4.2.5.1 Time Dependence 161
4.2.5.2 1/n-Root Measurements 162
4.2.5.3 Voltage Power Law 164
4.2.6 Electromigration (EM) 165
4.3 Physics of Healthy 171
4.3.1 Definitions 171
4.3.2 Entropy and Generalization 173

5 Multiple Failure Mechanism in Reliability Prediction 179

5.1 MTOL Testing System 183
5.1.1 Accelerated Element, Control System, and Counter 185
5.1.2 Separating Failure Mechanisms 186
5.1.3 EA and γ Extrapolation 187
5.2 MTOL Matrix: A Use Case Application 191
5.2.1 Effective Activation Energy Characteristics (Eyring-M-STORM
Model) 197
5.3 Comparison of DSM Technologies (45, 28, and 20 nm) 200
5.3.1 BTI’s High Voltage Constant 202
5.4 16 nm FinFET Reliability Profile Using the MTOL Method 204
5.4.1 Thermal Dissipation Concerns of 16 nm Technologies 213
5.5 16 nm Microchip Health Monitoring (MHM) from MTOL
Reliability 215
x Contents

5.5.1 Weibull Distribution Tapering by Increasing Devices 216

5.5.2 The FLL Measurement Circuit 217
5.5.3 Degradation Data Correction with Temperature Compensation 220
5.5.4 Accurate Lifetime Calculations Using Early Failure 221
5.5.5 Algorithm to Calculate the TTF of Early Failures 224
5.5.6 The Microchip Health Monitor 226

6 System Reliability 229

6.1 Definitions 230
6.2 Series Systems 232
6.2.1 Parallel Systems 233
6.2.2 Poisson Distribution Function 233
6.2.3 Weibull Distribution Function 235
6.2.4 Complex Systems 237
6.3 Weibull Analysis of Data 241
6.4 Weibull Analysis to Correlate Process Variations and BTI
Degradation 247

7 Device Failure Mechanism 255

7.1 Time-Dependent Dielectric Breakdown 257
7.1.1 Physics of Breakdown 258
7.1.2 Early Models for Dielectric Breakdown 259
7.1.3 Acceleration Factors 261
7.1.4 Models for Ultra-Thin Dielectric Breakdown 261
7.1.5 Statistical Model 264
7.2 Hot Carrier Injection 265
7.2.1 Hot Carrier Effects 266
7.2.2 Hot Carrier Generation Mechanism and Injection to the Gate Oxide
Film 267
7.2.3 Hot Carrier Models 269
7.2.4 Hot Carrier Degradation 271
7.2.5 Hot Carrier Resistant Structures 274
7.2.6 Acceleration Factor 274
7.2.6.1 Statistical Models for HCI Lifetime 276
7.2.6.2 Lifetime Sensitivity 276
7.3 Negative Bias Temperature Instability 276
7.3.1 Physics of Failure 277
7.3.2 Interface Trap Generation: Reaction–Diffusion Model 278
7.3.3 Fixed Charge Generation 279
7.3.4 Recovery and Saturation 280
7.3.5 NBTI Models 280
 Contents xi

7.3.6 Lifetime Models 281

7.4 Electromigration 282
7.4.1 Electromigration Physics 282
7.4.2 Lifetime Prediction 284
7.4.3 Lifetime Distribution Model 284
7.4.4 Lifetime Sensitivity 285
7.5 Soft Errors due to Memory Alpha Particles 285

8 Reliability Modeling of Electronic Packages 289

8.1 Failure Mechanisms of Electronic Packages 293
8.2 Failure Mechanisms’ Description and Models 297
8.2.1 Wire Bond Failures (Wire Lifting, Broken Wires, Bond Fracture,
etc.) 298
8.2.2 BGA and Package-on-Package Failures 300
8.2.3 Die Cracking Failures 301
8.2.3.1 Die Cracking Failure Mechanisms 303
8.2.4 Interface Delamination 304
8.2.5 Package Cracking Failure 308
8.2.6 Solder Joint Fatigue Failure 308
8.3 Failure Models 310
8.3.1 IMC Diffusion Models 310
8.3.2 Fracture Models Due to Cyclic Loads 312
8.3.3 Die Cracking Failure Models 312
8.3.4 Solder Joint Fatigue Failure Models 313
8.4 Electromigration 315
8.4.1 Electromigration Failure Description 316
8.4.2 Electromigration Failure Models 317
8.5 Corrosion Failure 317
8.5.1 Corrosion Failure Models 318
8.6 Failure Rate and Acceleration Factors 320
8.6.1 Creep 322
8.7 Reliability Prediction of Electronic Packages 325
8.7.1 Reliability and Failure Description 325
8.8 Reliability Failure Models 325
8.8.1 Inverse Power Law Models 326
8.8.2 Arrhenius Models 327
8.8.3 Arrhenius–Weibull Models 329

References 331
Index 363
 xiii

Author Biography

Joseph B. Bernstein
Professor, Ariel University, Ariel (Israel)

Biography
Professor Joseph B. Bernstein specializes in several areas of nano-scale micro-
electronic device reliability and physics of failure research, including packaging,
system reliability modeling, gate oxide integrity, radiation effects, Flash NAND
and NOR memory, SRAM and DRAM, MEMS, and laser-programmable metal
interconnect. He directs the Laboratory for Failure Analysis and Reliability of
Electronic Systems, teaches VLSI design courses, and heads the VLSI program
at Ariel University. His laboratory is a center of research activity dedicated to
serving the needs of manufacturers of highly reliable electronic systems using
commercially available off-the-shelf parts. Research areas include thermal,
mechanical, and electrical interactions of failure mechanisms of ultra-thin gate
dielectrics, nonvolatile memory, advanced metallization, and power devices. He
also works extensively with the semiconductor industry on projects relating to
failure analysis, defect avoidance, programmable interconnect used in field-
programmable analog arrays, and repair in microelectronic circuits and packag-
ing. Professor Bernstein was a Fulbright Senior Researcher/Lecturer at Tel Aviv
University in the Department of Electrical Engineering, Physical Electronics.
Professor Bernstein is a senior member of IEEE.

Alain A. Bensoussan
Thales Alenia Space France (1988–2019).
Senior Engineer, Optics and Opto-electronics Parts Expert at Thales Alenia
Space France, Toulouse (France) (2010–2019)
Formerly, Technical Advisor for Microelectronic and Photonic Components
Reliability at IRT Saint Exupery, Toulouse, France (2014–2017)
xiv Author Biography

Biography
Dr. Alain Bensoussan is Doctor of Engineering (Dr.-Ing.) and docteur d’Etat
from University Paul Sabatier (Toulouse, France) in applied physics. His field of
expertise is on microelectronic parts reliability at Thales Alenia Space. He worked
at Institut de Recherche (IRT) Saint Exupery (Aeronautic, Space, and Embedded
Systems, AESE), Toulouse (France), as a technical adviser for microelectronic and
photonic components reliability and was recognized at Thales Alenia Space as an
expert on optics and opto-electronics parts. Dr. Alain Bensoussan’s interests lie in
several areas in microelectronics reliability and physics of failure applied research
on GaAs and III-V compounds, monolithic microwave integrated circuits (MMIC),
microwave hybrid modules, Si and GaN transistors, IC’s and Deep-Sub-Micron
technologies, MEMS and MOEMS, active and passive optoelectronic devices
and modules. He has represented Thales Alenia Space in space organizations
such as EUROSPACE and ESA for more than 15 years.

Emmanuel Bender
Postdoctoral Researcher at Ariel University with a Research Affiliate at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, USA

Biography
Dr. Emmanuel Bender received the Ph.D. degree in electrical and electronics
engineering from Ariel University, Ariel, Israel, in 2022. He specializes in statis-
tical failure analysis of silicon VLSI technologies, including 16nm FinFETs. His
work focuses on failure phenomena in packaged devices, including bias temper-
ature instability, electromigration, hot carrier instability, and the self-heating
effect. He applied the Multiple Temperature Operational Life (MTOL) testing
method to generate reliability profiles on FPGA-programmed test structures in
45nm, 28nm, and 16nm technologies. He is currently working as a Postdoctoral
Researcher with Ariel University and has a research affiliation with the Microsys-
tems Technology Laboratories, MIT, with a primary focus on advanced packaging
device failure analysis. Dr. Bender is a member of IEEE

E-mail address(es):
Joseph B. Bernstein: [email protected]
Alain A. Bensoussan: [email protected]
Emmanuel Bender: [email protected]
 xv

Series Foreword

Wiley Series in Quality & Reliability Engineering

Dr. Andre V. Kleyner
Series Editor

TheWiley Series in Quality & Reliability Engineering aims to provide a solid edu-
cational foundation for both practitioners and researchers in the Q&R field and to
expand the reader’s knowledge base to include the latest developments in this field.
The series will provide a lasting and positive contribution to the teaching and prac-
tice of engineering. The series coverage will contain, but is not exclusive to,

•• Statistical methods
Physics of failure

•• Reliability modeling
Functional safety

•• Six-sigma methods
Lead-free electronics

•• Warranty analysis/management
Risk and safety analysis

Wiley Series in Quality & Reliability Engineering

Reliability Prediction for Microelectronics

By Joseph B Bernstein, Alain A. Bensoussan, Emmanuel Bender
March 2024

Software Reliability Techniques for Real-World Applications

by Roger K. Youree
December 2022
xvi Series Foreword

System Reliability Assessment and Optimization: Methods and Applications

by Yan-Fu Li, Enrico Zio
April 2022

Design for Excellence in Electronics Manufacturing

Cheryl Tulkoff, Greg Caswell
April 2021

Design for Maintainability

by Louis J. Gullo (Editor), Jack Dixon (Editor)
March 2021

Reliability Culture: How Leaders can Create Organizations that Create Reliable
Products
by Adam P. Bahret
February 2021

Lead-free Soldering Process Development and Reliability

by Jasbir Bath (Editor)
August 2020

Automotive System Safety: Critical Considerations for Engineering and Effective

Management
Joseph D. Miller
February 2020

Prognostics and Health Management: A Practical Approach to Improving System

Reliability Using Condition-Based Data
by Douglas Goodman, James P. Hofmeister, Ferenc Szidarovszky
April 2019

Improving Product Reliability and Software Quality: Strategies, Tools, Process and
Implementation, 2nd Edition
Mark A. Levin, Ted T. Kalal, Jonathan Rodin
April 2019

Practical Applications of Bayesian Reliability

Yan Liu, Athula I. Abeyratne
April 2019
 Series Foreword xvii

Dynamic System Reliability: Modeling and Analysis of Dynamic and Dependent

Behaviors
Liudong Xing, Gregory Levitin, ChaonanWang
March 2019

Reliability Engineering and Services

Tongdan Jin
March 2019

Design for Safety

by Louis J. Gullo, Jack Dixon
February 2018

Thermodynamic Degradation Science: Physics of Failure, Accelerated Testing,

Fatigue and Reliability
by Alec Feinberg
October 2016

Next Generation HALT and HASS: Robust Design of Electronics and Systems
by Kirk A. Gray, John J. Paschkewitz
May 2016

Reliability and Risk Models: Setting Reliability Requirements, 2nd Edition

by Michael Todinov
November 2015

Applied Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis: Probabilistic Models and

Statistical Inference
by Ilia B. Frenkel (Editor), Alex Karagrigoriou (Editor), Anatoly Lisnianski
(Editor), Andre V. Kleyner (Editor)
October 2013

Design for Reliability

by Dev G. Raheja (Editor), Louis J. Gullo (Editor)
July 2012

Effective FMEAs: Achieving Safe, Reliable, and Economical Products and

Processes Using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis
by Carl Carlson
April 2012
xviii Series Foreword

Failure Analysis: A Practical Guide for Manufacturers of Electronic Components

and Systems
by Marius Bazu, Titu Bajenescu
April 2011

Reliability Technology: Principles and Practice of Failure Prevention in Electronic

Systems
by Norman Pascoe
April 2011

Improving Product Reliability: Strategies and Implementation

by Mark A. Levin, Ted T. Kalal
March 2003

Test Engineering: A Concise Guide to Cost-Effective Design, Development and

Manufacture
by Patrick O’Connor
April 2001

Integrated Circuit Failure Analysis: A Guide to Preparation Techniques

by Friedrich Beck
January 1998

Measurement and Calibration Requirements for Quality Assurance to ISO 9000

by Alan S. Morris
October 1997

Electronic Component Reliability: Fundamentals, Modelling, Evaluation, and

Assurance
by Finn Jensen
November 1995
 xix

Preface

This book provides statistical analysis and physics of failure methods used in
engineering and areas of Applied Physics of “Healthy” (PoH). The engineering
and statistical analyses deal with the concept of remaining useful life (RUL) of
electronics in the new deep sub-micron (DSM) and nano-scale technologies era
and integrated electronics in operation. Many concepts developed in this book
are of high interest to the benefit of various products and systems managers,
manufacturers, as well as users in many commercial industries: aerospace,
automotive, telecommunication, civil, energy (nuclear, wind power farms, solar
energy, or even oil and gas).
A broad audience of practitioners, engineers, applied scientists, technical man-
agers, experimental physicists, test equipment laboratory managers, college pro-
fessors and students, and instructors of various continuing education programs
were in mind to construct the overall structure of the book.
Engineering products must offer a worthwhile lifetime and operate safely during
their service period under predefined conditions and environmental hazards. To
achieve this goal, engineers must understand the ways in which the useful life-
in-service of the product can be evaluated and incorporate this understanding into
the design (by hardware or software). The tasks involved with reliability prediction
are to analyze the design, test, manufacture, operate, and maintain the product,
system, or structure at all stages of product development, manufacturing, and
use, from the moment of design to the cessation of maintenance and repair to
the end. Reliability standards are based on experience and consider random failure
rate associated with an activation energy for a single failure mechanism. Today, we
are using devices (smart phones, PC’s) with IC’s size nodes as low as a few atomic
layers (<5 nm range). Reliability analysis concepts must consider multiple stress
and multiple failure mechanisms activated simultaneously.
 xxi

Scope

This physics of failure-based book is meant to teach reliability prediction for elec-
tronic system to offer a more accurate reliability estimation for electronic system
by highlighting the problematic areas of conventional approaches and giving alter-
native suggestions to cover the shortcomings that lead to inaccurate estimations. It
is the opinion of the authors that the major limitation in reliability prediction is the
reliance on incorrect prediction mathematics that were improperly introduced
early in the days of reliability physics methodology, started by Mil Handbook
217 and the like. These errors continue to propagate themselves to this day. Hence,
the motivation for this book derives from the need we see that the practices of rely-
ing on incorrect statistical analysis and false combinations of physical phenomena
lead to completely wrong approaches to reliability assessment and qualification.
We describe herein a competing failure mechanism approach based on an accel-
eration test matrix. We present a cell-based reliability characterization and a sta-
tistical comparison of constant failure rate approximations for various physical
rate-based mechanisms. Our alternative suggestion should lead to correct reliabil-
ity predictions and is justified mathematically rather than to assume a single
“base” failure rate multiplied by vaguely justified “π” factors.
The problem at hand is not that conventional handbooks cannot give instruc-
tions for electronic system failure rate calculation or that they are not based
on the physics of failure foundation; it is that they still apply fundamentally
immature and incorrect assumptions. One example of such a basic false assump-
tion is that there exists a “base” failure rate, λb, for some average condition and
that small modifications, called “π” factors, can be multiplied to get a modified
“true” failure rate. We will show here that this π-factor modification has no math-
ematical justification and that a proper sum-of-failure-rate approach would be
much more consistent with today’s understanding of reliability physics.
Our assumptions and suggestions need to be articulated more to build an elec-
tronic system reliability paradigm.
 xxiii

Introduction

“Zero failure” qualification reported by industries today is one of the criteria that
blocks progress in the domain of reliability. One of the engineers’ responsibilities is
to do “conjecture” to find new ways to test not only the products but also the phys-
ical theories behind them. When many devices are tested and zero failures occur
during the qualification test, there is no way to distinguish exactly which failure
mechanism did NOT fail, since no failure was found. In that case, which is the only
acceptable case by most industry standards, it is impossible to tell what accelera-
tion factor can be assigned to that lack of failures, especially when we know from
the beginning that multiple mechanisms compete for dominance at any operating
condition.
The electronics industry, for example, takes this to the extreme in the JEDEC
standards (formerly Joint Electron Device Engineering Council), where they
propose a χ 2 statistic and allow for improperly adding degrees of freedom and a
completely unjustified acceleration factor that can never be falsified, since there
are no failures to be found. We will discuss this in more detail in what follows;
however, we hope to show that there is no statistical validity to adding imaginary
data that never occurred and, furthermore, to attributing acceleration factors
that were never measured.
“Competing failure mechanisms” is one of the suggestions that could replace the
“zero failure rate” paradigm. Once we accept it (now it is accepted even by indus-
tries and standard handbooks), we could apply an accelerating test matrix to pro-
vide accurate acceleration factors. Then not only the accurate lifetime of the
system could be predicted but also flaws and weaknesses could be revealed.
Our primary purpose in this book is to challenge the “π” model of multiplying
acceleration factors when these “adjustment” factors are reflected by multiple
mechanisms that need to be separated. Secondly, we will reject the idea that a
zero-failure test “results” can give you a predictable time to fail. Alternatively,
we will illustrate a multiple-mechanism failure rate matrix approach that will
accurately consider multiple failure mechanisms consistently and simultaneously,
allowing for practical and accurate failure rate prediction and calculations.
 1

Conventional Electronic System Reliability Prediction

The history of reliability engineering goes back to 1950s when electronics played
a major role for the first time. At that time, there was great concern within the
US military establishment for the reliability and maintainability of the current
electronic systems. Many meetings and ad hoc groups were created to cope with
the problems. Developing better parts, finding quantitative reliability for parts,
and collecting field data on actual part failures to determine the root cause of
problems were three major fields of research in those days.
When the complexity of electronic equipment began to increase significantly,
and new demands were placed on system reliability, a permanent committee
(AGREE) was established to identify the actions that could be taken to provide
more reliable electronic equipment (1952). The reliability era began when the first
Radio Corporation of America (RCA) report on reliability of electronic parts was
released in 1956, the first time when reliability was defined as a probability. On
the other hand, one of the first reliability handbooks titled Reliability Factors
for Ground Electronic Equipment was published in 1956 by McGraw-Hill under
the sponsorship of the Rome Air Development Center (RADC); while the
McGraw-Hill handbook gave information on design considerations, human engi-
neering, interference reduction, and a section on reliability mathematics, failure
prediction was only mentioned as a topic under development.
Reliability prediction and assessment are traced to November 1956 with publi-
cation of the RCA release TR-1100, titled “Reliability Stress Analysis for Electronic
Equipment,” which presented models for computing rates of component failures.
It was the first time that the concepts of activation energy and the Arrhenius rela-
tionship were used in modeling component failure rates. However, in 1960s, the
first version of a military handbook for the reliability prediction of electronic
equipment (MIL-HDBK-217) was published by the US Navy [1]. It covered a broad
range of part types, and since then, it has been widely used for military and com-
mercial electronics systems.

Reliability Prediction for Microelectronics, First Edition. Joseph B. Bernstein, Alain A. Bensoussan,
and Emmanuel Bender.
© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Published 2024 by
2 1 Conventional Electronic System Reliability Prediction

In July 1973, RCA proposed a new prediction model for microcircuits, based
on previous work by the Boeing Aircraft Company. In the early 1970s, RADC
further updated the military handbook and revision B was published in 1974.
The advent of more complex microelectronic devices pushed the application of
MIL-HDBK-2 17B beyond reason. This decade is known for development of
new innovative models for reliability predictions. Then, RCA developed the
physics-of-failure model, which was initially rejected because of the lack of
availability of essential data.
To keep pace with the accelerating and ever-changing technology base,
MIL-HDBK-217C was updated to MIL-HDBK-217D on January 15, 1982 and
to MIL-HDBK-217E on October 27, 1986. In December 1991, MIL-HDBK-
217F became a prescribed US military reliability prediction document. Two
teams were responsible for providing guidelines for the last update. Both teams
suggested:

1) that the constant failure rate (CFR) model could not be used;
2) that some of the individual wear-out failure mechanisms (like electromigration
and time-dependent dielectric breakdown) could be modeled with a lognormal
distribution;
3) that the Arrhenius-type formulation of the failure rate in terms of temperature
should not be included in the package failure model; and
4) that stresses such as temperature change and humidity should be considered.

Both groups noticed that temperature cycling is more detrimental to component

reliability than the steady state temperature at which the device is operating, so
long as the temperature is below a critical value. This conclusion has been further
supported by a National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), and an
Army Fort Monmouth study which stated that the influence of steady-state tem-
perature on microelectronic reliability under typical operating changes is inappro-
priately modeled by an Arrhenius relationship [2–4]. However, considering the
ability to separate failure mechanisms by separate Arrhenius activation energies,
it may be possible to return to the physics of failure (PoF) assumption that each
mechanism will have a unique activation energy.

1.1 Electronic Reliability Prediction Methods

There are several different approaches to the reliability prediction of electronic sys-
tems and equipment. Each approach has unique advantages and disadvantages;
several papers have been published on the comparison of reliability assessment
approaches. However, there are two distinguishable approaches to reliability pre-
diction, traditional/empirical, and PoF approach.
 1.1 Electronic Reliability Prediction Methods 3

Traditional, empirical models are those that have been developed from histor-
ical reliability databases either from fielded applications or from laboratory
tests [5].
Handbook prediction methods are appropriate only for predicting the relia-
bility of electronic and electrical components and systems that exhibit CFRs.
All handbook prediction methods contain one or more of the following types
of prediction:

•• Tables of operating and/or non-operating CFR values arranged by part type,

Multiplicative factors for different environmental parameters to calculate the
operating or non-operating CFR, and

• Multiplicative factors that are applied to a base operating CFR to obtain non-
operating CFR [6].
MIL-HDBK-217 reliability prediction methodology which was developed under
the activity of the RADC (now Rome Laboratory) and its last version released in
February 1995 intended to “establish and maintain consistent and uniform meth-
ods for estimating the inherent reliability (i.e. the reliability of a mature design) of
military electronic equipment and systems. The methodology provided a common
basis for reliability predictions during acquisition programs for military electronic
systems and equipment. It also established a common basis for comparing and
evaluating reliability predictions or related competitive designs. The handbook
was intended to be used as a tool to increase the reliability of the equipment being
designed.”
In 2001, the office of the US Secretary of Defense stated that “…. the Defense
Standards Improvement Council (DSIC) decided several years ago to let MIL-
HDBK-217 ‘die the death.’ This is still the current OSD position, i.e. we will not
support any updates/revisions to MIL-HDBK-217” [6].
Two basic methods for performing the prediction based on the data observation
include the parts count and the parts stress analysis. The parts count reliability
prediction method is used for the early design phases when not enough data is
available, but the numbers of component parts are known. The information for
parts count method includes generic part types (complexity for microelectronics),
part quantity, part quality levels (when known or can be assumed), and environ-
mental factors. Since equipment consists of the parts operating in more than one
environment, the “parts count” equation is applied to each portion of the equip-
ment in a distinct environment. The overall equipment failure rate is obtained
by summing the failure rate for each component over its expected operating
condition.
A part stress model is based on the effect of mechanical, electrical and envi-
ronmental stress and duty cycles such as temperature, humidity, and vibration
on the part failure rate. The part failure rate varies with applied stress and the
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