NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE SEIQR MODEL FOR COVID-19 IN

UNITED STATES

In partial fulfillment

of the Requirement in

MATH 323 : NUMERICAL ANALYSIS

by

DALUDDUNG, CHRISFORD

MIRAS, JOAN LORRAINE M.

RAMOS, JHOANA C.

REYES, PRINCESS ZHYVERRE B.

SOROAN, GRAZIELLE JOY N.

VIRAY, FROILAN N.

June 2023

1
INTRODUCTION

Coronaviruses are a broad family of viruses that can infect both animals and people,
with humans suffering the most. It has been over 4 years since the SARS-CoV-2 virus from
China, now known as COVID-19, infected 100 million individuals in over 210 countries,
and killed 2 million people (Wang, 2021). COVID-19 became as a true test of humanity.
Humans suffered of mental anguish, unemployment during lockdown, economy has been
deteriorating, starvation of poor families, health and life is threatened, social disruption and
online education privilege during past 2 years of pandemic lockdown This whole scenario
has been reported to leave an inauspicious psychological impact on the children, the general
public, older adults as well as on the patients and medical staff (Singh, 2020; Yang et al.,
2020). The pandemic leaves us huge wound, it has affected world economy that leads almost
all countries to inflation. But with the help of Science, Technology and Mathematics, people
are creating new vaccine treatment to fight the virus. Since scientists and researchers around
the world are trying to set up a vaccine or an epidemic cure for control of such pandemics in
the future, an infectious disease can be well identified and understood using mathematical
models from a medical engineering context (Youseff, et. al 2021).
There are several mathematical models for different disease one is the SIR model. The
SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model, developed by Ronald Ross William Hamer, and
others in the early twentieth century consists of a system of three coupled non-linear ordinary
differential equations, which does not possess an explicit formula solution. However, simple
tools from calculus allow us to extract a great deal of information about the solutions. Along
the way they illustrate how this simple model helps to lay a theoretical foundation for public
health interventionsand how several cornerstones of public health required a similar model
to discover (Weiss, 2013). These models are used to anticipate the future mathematical facts
that will assist researchers, scientists, and medical practitioners in creating a plan for the
future, however they are not 100% accurate and have some margin of error. The mathemat-
ical modeling of infectious diseases is crucial and critical in the genesis of epidemics. Since
then, various models have been built, tested, and applied to examine the spread of infectious
diseases. Mathematical modeling now makes an important contribution to mathematics and
public health. (Singh and Quraishi, 2021).
While the SIR model has proven valuable in understanding the dynamics of infectious
diseases, including COVID-19, it is important to recognize that no single model can capture
the full complexity of a real-world pandemic. Various factors such as population heterogene-
ity, spatial dynamics, and behavioral changes can significantly influence disease transmission,
requiring the development of more sophisticated models.
To address these challenges, researchers have expanded upon the SIR model to incor-
porate additional features. For instance, the SEIR model (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-
Recovered) includes an exposed compartment to account for the latent period of the disease,
during which individuals are infected but not yet infectious. This modification allows for
a more accurate representation of disease transmission dynamics, particularly for diseases
with longer incubation periods. Furthermore, spatially explicit models have been developed
to capture the geographical spread of infectious diseases. These models consider the move-

2
ment of individuals between different locations, such as cities or regions, and account for
the impact of travel patterns on disease dissemination. By incorporating spatial dynamics,
researchers can assess the effectiveness of targeted interventions, such as localized lockdowns
or travel restrictions. Another, critical area of research focuses on incorporating social and
behavioral factors into mathematical models. Human behavior, such as compliance with
preventive measures or vaccination uptake, can greatly influence the course of an epidemic.
Models that consider behavioral dynamics can provide insights into the impact of public
health messaging, social norms, and individual decision-making on disease spread. Integrat-
ing these aspects into mathematical models enhances their usefulness for policy formulation
and intervention planning. Moreover, advancements in data collection and analysis tech-
niques have contributed to more accurate modeling. The availability of real-time data on
case counts, hospitalizations, and contact tracing has enabled modelers to calibrate and
validate their models more effectively. Data-driven models can be updated in real-time,
providing policymakers with timely information for decision-making and resource allocation.
In addition to their role in epidemic prediction and control, mathematical models have
been crucial in vaccine development and deployment strategies. Models can assess the po-
tential impact of different vaccination scenarios, such as prioritizing specific populations or
implementing different distribution strategies. By simulating the spread of the disease under
various vaccination scenarios, researchers can optimize vaccination campaigns and estimate
the expected reduction in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.In conclusion, mathematical
modeling, exemplified by the SIR model, continues to play a vital role in understanding and
mitigating the impact of infectious diseases such as COVID-19. The development of more
sophisticated models incorporating population heterogeneity, spatial dynamics, and behav-
ioral factors has enhanced our ability to anticipate and respond to pandemics. However,
it is important to acknowledge the inherent limitations and uncertainties associated with
mathematical models. They should be considered as tools that complement other sources of
information and expertise in guiding public health interventions and policy decisions. On-
going research in mathematical modeling will further refine our understanding of infectious
diseases and contribute to improved preparedness and response strategies in the face of future
pandemics.

3
REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURES

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2

virus. People infected with the Corona virus experiences mild to moderate respiratory illness
and recover without requiring special treatment. However, some will become seriously ill and
require medical attention. (World Health Organization, 2023). Based on Peeri NC, Shrestha
N, et al. (2020), the inadequate risk assessment regarding the urgency of the situation,
and limited reporting on the virus within China has led to the rapid spread of COVID-19
throughout mainland China and into proximal and distant countries. Compared with SARS
and MERS, COVID-19 has spread more rapidly, due in part to increased globalization and
the focus of the epidemic.
Kumar D, Malviya R and Sharma P. (2020), stated that the transmission primarily
spreads through the respiratory droplets from inhaled sneeze or cough air of an infected
person. It is also suspected to transmit by touching contaminated inanimate objects and
by touching the mouth, nose, or eyes. Transmission is suspected to be transmitted through
asymptomatic carriers as well. After that, the symptoms may appear within 14 days and
almost 80% of people had experience the symptoms.
To date, most SARS-CoV-2 infected patients have developed mild symptoms such as dry
cough, sore throat, and fever. The majority of cases have spontaneously resolved. However,
some have developed various fatal complications including organ failure, septic shock, pul-
monary oedema, severe pneumonia, and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) (N.
Chen, M. Zhou, X. Dong, et al., 2020). When WHO declared the COVID-19 to be a Public
Health Emergency of International Concern posing a high risk to countries with vulnerable
health systems. The emergency committee have stated that the spread of COVID-19 may
be interrupted by early detection, isolation, prompt treatment, and the implementation of a
robust system to trace contacts (World Health Organization, 2020). All people in the world
is required to undergo quarantine that lasted for a year to reduce the disease transmission by
confining the movement of the population and reducing the spread through human contacts
(Nogueira, J. et al, 2021).
According to Bhadauria, A.S., Devi, S. and Gupta, N. (2021), Mathematical modelling
of infectious diseases has been used as a significant tool in understanding the dynamics of
diseases and predicting the size of infectious population. A suitable mathematical model
helps the government and healthcare workers in framing their policies by predicting the
behavioural aspect of the disease. Since mathematical modeling of infectious diseases is
relevant and critical in the emergence of epidemics, variants of Susceptible Infectious Recov-
ered Model have been developed, studied, and applied to investigate the spread of infectious
diseases. Mathematical modeling is a great help as it makes a significant contribution to
mathematics and public health (Hethcote, 2000; Martcheva, 2015).
Wu et al. (2020) used the data recorded from December 31, 2019, to January 28, 2020 in
order to define the movement or the change of the transmission and to estimate the national
and global spread of the Covid-19 disease. They had implemented the Susceptible Exposed
Infectious Recovered Model (SEIR), extended SIR Model. Based on Chen et al. (2020)
and Youssef et al. (2020), the classic SEIR model is commonly used and accepted in many

4
countries to assess the outbreak of the COVID epidemic. Since modeling can draw simple
and straightforward conclusions on the COVID-19 epidemic, a cascade of the SEIR models
has been developed to explain the mechanisms of its infection source transmission, storage,
and hosts for humans.
Imai et al.(Imai et al., 2020) developed a deterministic compartmental model that in-
volved the disease’s clinical development, human epidemiological status, and engagement
levels. The authors find that the reproductive control number may be as large as 6.47. That
interaction techniques such as simplified touch tracing and quarantine would efficiently min-
imize the number of reproductive controls and the risk of transmission (Tang et al., 2020a).
Airborne and personal diseases are commonly considered to be transmitted directly when
transmission takes place via any interaction between one person and another (Martcheva,
2015).
To predict the severity of the disease outbreak, Imai et al. (Imai et al., 2020) carried
out a computer simulation of possible infectious tracks in Wuhan with an emphasis on
communications between individuals. Their findings suggest that control measures must
block more than 60% of transmission to avoid the outbreak. (Imai et al., 2020).
Babaei et al. constructed a mathematical model to examine the effect of quarantine on
the spread of coronavirus (Babaei et al., 2021) called SEIQR Model (variant)or Susceptible
Exposed Infectious Recovered Quarantined Model. Ghosh et al. (2022) have studied about
discrete-time epidemic model for the analysis of transmission of COVID-19 based upon
data of epidemiological parameters. In this article, we have considered the epidemic model
published by A. Zeb, E. Alzahrani, et al. (2020), “Mathematical model for Coronavirus
disease 2019 (covid-19) containing isolation class,” and M. A. Awal, M. Masud, et al., (2021),
“A novel bayesian optimization-based machine learning framework for COVID-19 detection
from impatient facility data”. Then, we have extended the idea of the article from B. Wacker
and J. Schluter (2020), “Time-continuous and time-discrete SIR models revisited: theory and
applications,” to the considered model.
To sum it all, Covid-19 pandemic became a threat to humanity when the epidemic started,
all people have the possibility to be exposed by touching anything outside, interacting with
anyone and later on, they will be infected. In the beginning, researchers tend to use only
the SEIR math modeling to predict the growth of infected, exposed, recovered population
because the pandemic is rapidly spreading. Then later on, they extended the model by
adding the Quarantined as it also brings change to the rate of the affected population called
SEIQR Model. As a result, the goal of this paper is to propose a nonautonomous SEIQR
model, investigate the properties of its time-continuous formulation, and design an implicit
numerical solution approach that preserves the time-continuous variant’s primary properties.
The goal of this article is to propose, analyze, and optimize COVID-19 using the SEIQR
epidemic model. According to our investigations, COVID-19 outbreaks might be caused by
human-to-human interaction. As a result, isolation of the infected humans can reduce the
COVID-19 spread in the future.

5
MODEL PRESENTATION AND METHOD

SIR Model for Epidemics

The SIR model for epidemics is a set of three ordinary differential equations that simulates
disease transmission. In a particular population, the model includes three types of people:
susceptible, infected, and recovered/removed. Individuals who are susceptible, denoted by
S, are at risk of contracting the illness prior to the outbreak. Those who have the disease,
denoted by I, have it and can spread it to others in the community. Individuals who have
recovered or been removed from the community, denoted by R, have had the illness and
have either recovered or been removed from the population owing to death, quarantine, or
hospitalization. These people are eliminated from the population because they can no longer
become sick or infect others. The following system of equations is the SIR model.

dS(t)
= −βI(t)S(t)
dt
dI(t)
= βI(t)S(t) − γI(t)
dt
dR(t)
= γI(t)
dt
Given the parameters β and γ, β denotes the transmission rate and the γ denoted the
recovery rate. While for the t which is an independent variable, it measure the time in days.
Lastly, to find the numerical solution to the model we need an initial population: S0 , I0 , and
R0 , and for the t it should be t = 0.

SEIQR Model for COVID-19

Aside from the three population classes and the transmission and recovery rates provided
by the SIR model, many other factors may influence the spread of a virus throughout the
population while analyzing epidemics. We may, however, expand the SIR model to develop
more complicated yet meaningful models for different epidemics. Although we may design
models with many more aspects and variables, the methods for obtaining solutions and data
for parameter values get progressively harder as the model becomes more complex. The
model for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), also known as
COVID-19, will be the subject of this research. An expanded SIR model was developed to
simulate the complicated dynamics of people in a community becoming exposed, quaran-
tined, insusceptible, and eliminated. The ordinary differential equations that will be referred
as the SEIQR Mathematical Model for COVID-19 follows:

dS(t) S(t)I(t)
= −β − αS(t)
dt N
dE(t) S(t)I(t)
=β − γE(t)
dt N
dI(t)
= γE(t) − δI(t)
dt
6
 dQ(t)
= δI(t) − λ(t)Q(t) − κ(t)Q(t)
dt
dR(t)
= λ(t)Q(t)
dt
dD(t)
= κ(t)Q(t)
dt
dP (t)
= αS(t)
dt
At time t, S(t), E(t), I(t), Q(t), R(t), D(t), and P (t) indicate the susceptible, exposed,
infective, quarantined, recovered, closed cases, and insusceptible populations. The exposed
population has COVID-19, but they are not yet infectious enough for spreading the virus.
COVID-19 is present in the infective population, however unlike the exposed population,
these people are infectious and can transmit the virus since they have not yet been quar-
antined. Individuals in quarantine have been diagnosed with COVID-19. The constant N
represents the entire population of the region under consideration, where N = S + E + I +
Q + R + D + P (Rahimi et.al., 2021).

Figure 1: Dynamic simulation of the COVID-19 epidemic model. (Peng et.al., 2020)

We will examine the system dynamics, as shown in Figure 1, beginning with the suscep-
tible population S wherein there are two parameters associated with S : α and β . The
parameter α is interpreted as the virus’s protection rate, or the rate at which people de-
velop immunity and move into the susceptible group. The figure shows that once a person
becomes insusceptible, they can no longer be infected by the virus. Through the infection
rate β, other people in the susceptible group move to the exposed population. In which β is
indicated as the average number of persons (in millions) in the susceptible population who
are exposed to the virus on a daily basis.
Some people from the exposed population have now moved to the infectious population
I, where the rate of their migration is indicated by γ. For the parameter γ, we have γ −1
represents the average latent time. As a result, γ reflects the rate at which symptoms
develop in the exposed population, or the number of exposed persons (in millions) who

7
acquire symptoms every day. After an exposed person develops symptoms, they become
contagious and spread to the infected population.
Some infected people will subsequently be relocated to the quarantined population to
prevent the virus from spreading. The rate at which these persons are quarantined is indi-
cated by δ where δ −1 defined as average quarantine duration. This idea can be viewed as
the number of infected persons quarantined each day (in millions).
According to the model, after being quarantined, a person can either recover or die from
the illness. These transitions between recovery and death are represented by the parameters
λ(t) and κ(t), correspondingly. The variables in the model are time-dependent since the
rates vary during the epidemic. However, for the sake of this research, we will concentrate
on a time period in which there are no substantial changes in the rates specified, thus we
will leave these numbers constant. As a result, we have λ as the recovery rate and κ as the
death rate.

Heun’s Method

The Improved Euler’s Method, also knowsn as the Heun’s Method is a numerical approach
for solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The predictor-corrector method estimates
the value of the solution at the next time step where the process is two steps process. This
method is second-order, which means that its error is proportional to the square of the
numerical approximation step size. It is commonly utilized in scientific and engineering
applications that demand accurate/precise solutions to ODEs.
Formula:
h
wi+1 = wi + [f (ti , wi ) + f (ti+1 , wi + hf (ti , wi ))
2
or it can be written as

P redictor : pi+1 = wi + hf (ti , wi )

h
Corrector : wi+1 = wi + [f (ti , wi ) + f (ti+1 , wi + pi+1
2
where,

ˆ wi is the approximation of the solution at the time ti .

ˆ wi+1 is the approximation of the solution at time tn + h.

ˆ h is the step size.

ˆ f (t, w) is the function that defines the derivative of w with respect to t, i.e. dw
dt
= f (t, y)

By iteratively applying this formula for each time step, an approximation of the solution
to the ODE can be obtained. The accuracy of the method depends on the step size h, with
smaller step sizes leading to more accurate results. This methods’ local truncation error is
O(h3 ) and O(h2 ) for its global truncation error.

8
3rd ORDER RUNGE-KUTTA METHOD

The Runge-Kutta Method is a highly accurate numerical method that does requiring
the high order derivatives of functions wherein this method can be used to generate high
order accurate numerical methods from the function themselves, that is the reason why this
method is one of the most popular and effective methods to solve Initial-Value Problem
(IVP) of various differential equations.
This method produces four different slopes and uses them as weighted averages, as op-
posed to Euler’s method, which computes one slope at a time. The Runge-Kutta method
helps us overcome the problem of the Euler’s method of choosing a sufficiently small step
size for a reasonable accuracy in solutions.
Formula:
h
wi+1 = wi + (k1 + 4k2 + k3 )
6
where,
k1 = f (ti , wi )
h h
k2 = f (ti + , wi + k1 )
2 2
k3 = f (ti + h, wi − k1 h + 2k2 h)
The local truncation error for this method, Runge-Kutta 3rd Order, is O(h4 ) and its
global truncation error is O(h3 ).

Adams-Moulton Method

Multistep methods are numerical methods for solving ODEs that attempt to gain effi-
ciency by keeping and using the information from previous steps rather than discarding it.

The Adams’ Predictor-Corrector Method is a multistep method that is made from three
numerical methods: the Runge-Kutta Method, Adams-Bashforth Method, and Adams-
Moulton Method. The Adams-Moulton method is an implicit numerical method, which
is more accurate than explicit methods.
Formula:

0 23 16 5
P redictor : wi+1 = wi + h( f (ti , wi ) − f (ti−1 , wi−1 ) + f (ti−2 , wi−2 )
12 12 12

k 5 k−1 8 1
Corrector : wi+1 = wi + h( f (ti+1 , wi+1 ) + f (ti , wi ) − f (ti−1 , wi−1 )
12 12 12
For the Predictor-Corrector Method of Order Four, we start off by using the RK3 method
for the first two values. Then, we use Adams-Bashforth method to find tentative values for
the rest of the values (up to N). Lastly, we use the implicit Adams-Moulton Method of Order
Three to find more accurate values using the predicted values from our explicit method.

9
NUMERICAL SIMULATION

Initial Conditions Estimation

To estimate the initial populations for the susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantined,
recovered, closed, and insusceptible populations, we found the population of the United
States, the number of active cases, number of deaths, and number of vaccinated individuals
it is first then need a time frame on what specific date will start and end for an accurate
outcome. This paper is focusing on the period starting with December31, 2020 and looking
at the first 150 days in 2021.
According to United States Census, there was approximately 332 million population in
United States in the end of the year of 2020. In the same day, there were about 6.1 million
active cases where in this case the an individual is infected with the virus (Worldometer,
United States Coronavirus Statistics). During this time period, initial vaccine doses for
COVID-19 were starting to be administered. 2.8 million people had their one dose of vaccine
(AJMC Staff, 2021). Although some vaccinated persons have been infected with the virus,
we will consider those who have been vaccinated to be insusceptible with the virus.
On December 31st, around 0.77% of the US population was contagious with COVID-
19 while 0.83% were infected but yet weren’t infectious (Sen et.al., 2021). As a result, we
utilized these data to calculate that the inital exposed and infected populations were roughly

E0 = 2.756

I0 = 2.557
(in million), respectively.
For the intial quarantined population, according to the model, only the exposed, infec-
tious, and quarantined populations are infected with the virus. Thus to determine it its is
first need to calculate the difference between the exposed and infected populations and the
number of active cases on December 31st.

Q0 = ActiveCases − (E0 + I0 )

Q0 = 6.1 − (2.756 + 2.557) = 0.787

While for initial number of closed cases was calculated by the total number of COVID-
19 cumulative deaths on December 31st, which was 336,508 people and it is approximately
0.337 in million (Worldometer).
D0 = .337
For the recovered population, to determine it, it is effective to find the difference between
the total number of cases and the sum of the number of deaths and active cases, where the
total number of recovered cases on this day was about 20.805 million

R0 = Casestotal − (D0 + ActiveCases)

R0 = 20.805 − (0.337 + 6.1) ≈ 14.326

10
 Since N = S + E + I + Q + R + D + P , we can find S by,

S0 = N − (E0 + I0 + Q − 0 + R0 + D0 + P0 )

S0 = 332 − 23.603 = 308.397

Thus, the Initial Conditions in SEIQR Model follows,

Initial Condition Generated Values

S0 308.397
E0 2.756
I0 2.557
Q0 0.787
R0 14.326
D0 0.377
P0 2.8

Parameters Estimation

The SEIQR Model have six different parameters: α, β, γ, δ, λ, and κ. First we will deal
with the estimation for γ and δ where in the model the gamma−1 defined as the average
latent time while δ −1 is the average quarantine time, respectively. The average latent time
for COVID-19 is inferred to be 3.3 days (Zhao et.al., 2021). So the value for γ follows,
1
γ= ≈ 0.303
3.3
For the average quarantine time, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
recommended the average days is 14 days. Thus,
1
δ= ≈ 0.071
14
Next is for the estimation of β where it is defined as the infection rate. Peng et.al. (2020)
but since we cannot access any, we just estimate the infection rate in US wherein

β = 0.2

Next, we found the death rate κ by dividing the total number of deaths in the U.S. on
May 30, 2021 due to COVID-19 by the total number of days of the pandemic as of May
30,2021.
death
κ=
days
0.614
κ= ≈ 0.001
445days

11
 Similarly for calculating the recovery rate λ, λ can be found by dividing the total number
of recover in the U.S. on May 30, 2021 (estimated) due to COVID-19 by the total number
of days of the pandemic as of May 30,2021.
recovered
λ=
days
25.217
λ= ≈ 0.06
445days
Lastly, we found the value for α using the Basic Reproduction Number (BRN) Formula
from Peng et.al., (2020), given by

BRN = βδ −1 (1 − α)T

where the duration of infectiousness measured in days is represented by T . Thus when

we solve for α, the formula becomes
s
BRN
α=1− T
βδ −1

According to the study of Sy et.al., (2021), the median BRN for COVID-19 in the United
States was 1.66 based on population density. According to the CDC, most infected individ-
uals are infectious no more than 10 days after their symptoms develop. Since it takes an
average of 3.3 days for symptoms to show after someone becomes infected, we have our du-
ration of infectiousness, T = 13.3 days. Thus, after we substitute in our values for BRN , β,
δ −1 , and T , we now have
r
13.3 1.66
α=1− ≈ 0.1444
0.9429 ∗ 14

Therefore, the generated parametes values follows

Parameters Generated Values

α 0.1444
β 0.2
γ 0.303
δ 0.071
λ 0.06
κ 0.001

12
Graph

As we saw when we estimated the parameters, the data for the number of active cases
is equivalent to the sum of the exposed, infectious, and quarantined populations. We will
simply use Heun’s, RK3, and Adams-Moulton Method to compare our results with the actual
data where t=30,60,90,12,150.
First is the Heun’s Method

For the Runge-Kutta 3

13
 Lastly, for our Adam-Moulton Method

As we can see, the error for the Heun’s and RK3 Method is almost the same but for the
Adams-Moulton Method it’s quite far and the error is not acceptable due to it reaches 2 and
it is surely because of our scilab code.

CONCLUSION

This research concludes our analysis of COVID-19 dynamics using the SEIQR model.
In this project, we obtained an numerical method to a simplified version of the model that
only included the exposed, infectious, and quarantined populations, as well as the quarantine
rate and the rate at which symptoms develops in infected individuals. We also used Heun’s,
Runge-Kutta, and Multistep Methods to obtain numerical solutions to the entire system of
differential equation.
The COVID-19 pandemic has been unpredictable, but our numerical solutions for the
SEIQR model are showing that taking precautionary measures such as wearing a mask,
becoming vaccinated, practicing social distancing, and quarantining can slow the spread of
the virus and keep infections low.

14
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