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STATISTICS IN PRACTICE
Series Advisors
Founding Editor
Vic Barnett
Nottingham Trent University, UK
A complete list of titles in this series appears at the end of the volume.
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Franco Taroni
University of Lausanne, Switzerland
Alex Biedermann
University of Lausanne, Switzerland
Silvia Bozza
University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Italy
Paolo Garbolino
University IUAV of Venice, Italy
Colin Aitken
University of Edinburgh, UK
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The right of the author to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted in accordance with the Copyright, Designs
and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form
or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, except as permitted by the UK Copyright,
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names used in this book are trade names, service marks, trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners. The
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Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book,
they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and
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A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
ISBN: 978-0-470-97973-0
To our families
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Bayes Nets and Influence Diagrams [...] will be the core elements of new computer
technologies that will make the 21st century the Century of Bayes. [...] Bayes Nets and
Influence Diagrams are not just important design tools; they also represent a major
enhancement of the understanding about how important intellectual tasks typically
performed by people should and can be performed.
– Ward Edwards
Contents
Foreword xiii
viii CONTENTS
CONTENTS ix
x CONTENTS
CONTENTS xi
10 Pre-assessment 314
10.1 Introduction 314
10.2 General elements of pre-assessment 315
10.3 Pre-assessment in a fibre case: A worked through example 316
10.3.1 Preliminaries 316
10.3.2 Propositions and relevant events 317
10.3.3 Expected likelihood ratios 319
10.3.4 Construction of a Bayesian network 321
10.4 Pre-assessment in a cross-transfer scenario 321
10.4.1 Bidirectional transfer 321
10.4.2 A Bayesian network for a pre-assessment of a cross-transfer
scenario 324
10.4.3 The value of the findings 325
10.5 Pre-assessment for consignment inspection 328
10.5.1 Inspecting small consignments 328
10.5.2 Bayesian network for inference about small consignments 330
10.5.3 Pre-assessment for inspection of small consignments 333
10.6 Pre-assessment for gunshot residue particles 335
10.6.1 Formation and deposition of gunshot residue particles 335
10.6.2 Bayesian network for grouped expected findings (GSR counts) 336
10.6.3 Examples for GSR count pre-assessment using a Bayesian
network 339
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xii CONTENTS
References 419
Foreword
I became a forensic scientist in 1966, training as a document examiner at the Home Office
Forensic Science Laboratory, Cardiff. I recall that, after I had been in the job for 2 or 3 years,
one of my colleagues travelled up to London for a Friday evening meeting of the British
Academy of Forensic Science: a visit to London was something of an adventure in those days
and attendance at such a meeting was regarded as a perk to be savoured. On the following
Monday, I asked my colleague how the meeting had gone and he replied that it was not bad
as meetings went, but it would not have interested me very much. However, he did give me a
photocopy that had been used as a handout at the meeting. My colleague was right in the sense
that I had not paid much attention to the theory of evidence interpretation up to that point, but
he did me an enormous favour because the handout was a prepublication version of a paper
by two Americans called Finkelstein and Fairley1 (1970). This was my first introduction to
Bayesian reasoning, and I must confess that it took me several years to come to terms with it.
Later, having qualified as a statistician, I devoted my efforts largely to the interpretation
of glass refractive index measurements – addressing what we would now call source-level
propositions. This work was entirely frequentist, but again I was fortunate when I learned of
a new paper by Dennis Lindley (1975). This, of course, was also Bayesian and what made
it particularly exciting for me was that it addressed what we would now call offence-level
propositions. In time, I took Dennis’ analysis and modified it to address what we would now
call activity-level propositions, though my first attempt to publish the results gained scathing
criticism from a reviewer and rejection by the journal! The analysis took account of the phe-
nomena of transfer and persistence and also the background distribution of extraneous material
on clothing. At a conference in Sacramento in 1982 and later in Vancouver in 1987, I heard
David Stoney’s talk about the notion of relevance, and I realized that here was a further factor
to be built in to our interpretation. My work in this area culminated in a paper that was pub-
lished in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Evett 1984). Although I was comfortable
with the theory, I realized that it was far too mathematical for practical use as it stood so it
was a great delight for me when, while I was visiting at Victoria University, Wellington, Tony
Vignaux and Bernard Robertson introduced me to Bayes’ nets (Tony and Bernard published a
paper on Bayes’ nets back in 1993). The issues that I had been trying to address by means of
complicated and relatively inaccessible algebra could be captured simply by diagrams such as
1 Many years later, I met both Michael Finkelstein and Will Fairley at a conference in Arizona – it was a great
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