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ma3391

The document contains a probability and statistics assignment with various problems divided into two parts. Part A includes questions on probability selection, binomial distribution, and moment generating functions, while Part B covers product reviews, call connection probabilities, flange thickness distribution, semiconductor laser life, and diagnostic test probabilities. The assignment requires calculations and understanding of different probability distributions and statistical concepts.

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29 views2 pages

ma3391

The document contains a probability and statistics assignment with various problems divided into two parts. Part A includes questions on probability selection, binomial distribution, and moment generating functions, while Part B covers product reviews, call connection probabilities, flange thickness distribution, semiconductor laser life, and diagnostic test probabilities. The assignment requires calculations and understanding of different probability distributions and statistical concepts.

Uploaded by

nn4230496
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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MA3391- Probability and statistics

Assignment-1
PART-A

1] During off-peak hours a commuter train has five cars. Suppose a commuter is twice as likely to select the middle car
(#3) as to select either adjacent car (#2 or #4), and is twice as likely to select either adjacent car as to select either end
car (#1 or #5). Find the probability that one of the three middle cars is selected.

2] The probability that a certain kind of component will survive a shock test is 3/4. Find the probability that exactly 2 of
the next 4 components tested survive.

3] A fair coin was tossed two times. Given that the first toss resulted in heads, what is the probability that both tosses
resulted in heads?

4] A bag contains six blue balls and four red balls. Balls are randomly drawn from the bag, one at a time, until a red ball is
obtained. If we assume that each drawn ball is replaced before the next one is drawn, what is the probability that the
experiment stops after exactly five balls have been drawn?

5] For a Binomial distribution of mean 4 and variance 2, find the probability of getting at least 2 successes.

6] Let XXX be a uniformly distributed random variable over (0,1)(0, 1)(0,1). Determine the moment generating function.

PART-B

9]. (a) (i) Customers are used to evaluate preliminary product designs. In the past, 95% of highly successful products
received good reviews, 60% of moderately successful products received good reviews, and 10% of poor products
received good reviews. In addition, 40% of products have been highly successful, 35% have been moderately successful,
and 25% have been poor products.

1. What is the probability that a product attains a good review?


2. If a new design attains a good review, what is the probability that it will be a highly successful product?
3. If a product does not attain a good review, what is the probability that it will be a highly successful product?

(ii) Assume that each of your calls to a popular radio station has a probability of 0.02 of connecting, that is, of not
obtaining a busy signal. Assume that your calls are independent.

1. What is the probability that your first call that connects is your tenth call?
2. What is the probability that it requires more than five calls for you to connect?
3. What is the mean number of calls needed to connect?

9]. (b) (i) The thickness of a flange on an aircraft component is uniformly distributed between 0.95 and 1.05 millimeters.

1. Determine the cumulative distribution function of flange thickness.


2. Determine the proportion of flanges that exceed 1.02 millimeters.
3. What thickness is exceeded by 90% of the flanges?
4. Determine the mean and variance of flange thickness.

(ii) The life of a semiconductor laser at a constant power is normally distributed with a mean of 7000 hours and a
standard deviation of 600 hours.

1. What is the probability that a laser fails before 5000 hours?


2. What is the life in hours that 95% of the lasers exceed?
3. If three lasers are used in a product and they are assumed to fail independently, what is the probability that all
three are still operating after 7000 hours?

10]. (a) (i) (i) Only 1 in 1000 adults is affected with a rare disease for which a diagnostic test has been developed. The test
is such that when an individual actually has the disease, a positive result will occur 99% of the time, whereas an individual
without the disease will show a positive test result only 2% of the time. If a randomly selected individual is tested and the
result is positive, what is the probability that the individual has the disease?

(ii) Let X have the Poisson distribution with probability distribution

10. (b) (i) Sport stories and financial reports, written by algorithms based on artificial intelligence, have become
common place. One company fed its algorithm with box scores and play-by-play information and created over one
million on-line reports of little league games in 2011. They now write many stories on the Big Ten Network site. Suppose
that the algorithm, or robot reporter, typically writes proportion 0.65 of the stories on the site. If 15 new stories are
scheduled to appear on a web site next weekend, find the probability that:

(1) 11 will be written by the algorithm


(2) at least 10 will be written by the algorithm
(3) between 8 and 11 inclusive will be written by the algorithm

(ii) Find the probabilities that a random variable having the standard normal distribution will take on a value:
(1) between 0.87 and 1.28
(2) between –0.34 and 0.62

(3) greater than 0.85


(4) greater than –0.65.

11. (a) (i) For a certain binary communication channel, the probability that a transmitted '0' is received as a '0' is 0.95
and the probability that a transmitted '1' is received as '1' is 0.90. If the probability that '0' is transmitted is 0.4, find the
probability that(1) '1' is received(2) '1' was transmitted given that a '1' was received.

(ii) Let X is a normal variate with mean μ = 30 and σ = 5. Find


(1) P(26≤X≤40)
(2) P(X≥45)
(3) P(∣X−30∣≥5)

(b)(i) The number of monthly breakdowns of a computer is a Random variable having a Poisson distribution with mean
equal to 1.8. Find the probability that this computer will function for a month
(1) without a breakdown
(2) with only one breakdown
(3) with at least one breakdown.

(ii) Given the Random variable X with density function

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