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Optimal solitaire Yahtzee strategies

Article · January 1999

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Tom Verhoeff
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 Optimal Solitaire Yahtzee∗ Strategies

Tom Verhoeff

Technische Universiteit Eindhoven

Faculty of Math. & Computing Science
Software Construction

[email protected]
http://www.win.tue.nl/~wstomv/yahtzee/

*) Yahtzee is a registered trademark of the Milton Bradley Company.

c 1999–2004, Tom Verhoeff Yahtzee–1
 Micro Yahtzee: Equipment & Rules

• ONE fair die : values 1 [·] to 6 [......] , equiprobable

• TWO primary categories on score card , each used once:

Category Score
Double value doubled
Square value squared
TOTAL sum above

• PLAY: roll, choose category, score, roll, score in other category

• AIM: maximize total score

Yahtzee–2
 Micro Yahtzee: Dilemma

• Empty score card:

Category Score
Double ...
Square ...
TOTAL ...

• What to do if first roll is 4?

Score 8 in Double?

Score 16 in Square?

Yahtzee–3
 Game Tree

Turn 1 Turn 2
roll choose roll “choose”
j
u

X j
u
XX
 

1  1
 
 j
u
   j
u

2 XXX 
2 

   
   
   
   
3 Sqr
 

3 j
u 
XXX  
 
u j u End
   


Dbl 

Begin 


u 
XXX X



u
 
XXX
Z
\ Z
\Z
XXX
X
4
XXX 
    Z
\ Z
\ Z
XXX
XXX4
XXj
u   X
Xu j
\ Z XX \ Z
\ ZZ XXX Sqr
XX \ Z
\ XXX 

 \ Z
\
Z
Z5 X
X u



X
Z

X X \
Z
Z 5
\ Z \Z \ Z
Z \
\Z Z
\ Z  \ Z
\ Zu
j
XXX \ Zu j
\6 \ 6
\ \
\ \
\ \
\\u

j  \
\uj
XXX
Yahtzee–4
 Micro Yahtzee: Analysis

Number of games: 6 · 2 · 6 · 1 = 72

Number of deterministic strategies: 26 · 16 = 64

Probability of each game: 1 ·

6 6
1 = 0.02777 . . .

Yahtzee–5
 Solving Micro Yahtzee

• Dice rolls are independent: probability of game is product

• Event scores are independent: total score is sum

• Merge equivalent states → Game Graph

• For each state, compute optimal expected additional score

• Start at the end (without choice), work backwards

Yahtzee–6
 Micro Yahtzee: Game Graph

1
2
3
4

Sq
1 5

ua
6

re
e
2

bl
ou
D
Begin 3 En
4
b le
5 Sq u
uar
e 1 Do
6 2
3
4
5
6
Roll Choose Roll "Choose"
Copyright (c) 2004, Tom Verhoeff
 Micro Yahtzee: Expected Scores

2+ 1+
4+
1+
1/6 x
4+ 9+
1/6 x
4+ 16 +
1/6 x 25 +
6+
1/6 x 9+ 36 +
8+
1/6 x
2+

1/6 x 16 + 4+
10 + 6+
1/6 x 25 +
1/6 x 8+
12 +
10 +
36 + 12 +

Roll Choose Roll "Choose"

Copyright (c) 2004, Tom Verhoeff
 1
Micro Yahtzee: Optimal Expectation
17 1/6 4
2+ 1+
9
4+
15 1/6
1+
19 1/6 1/6 x 16
4+ 9+
1/6 x
25
4+ 16 +
1/6 x 25 +
21 1/6 6+ 36
1/6 x 9+ 36 +
25 17/18 8+
1/6 x 23 1/6 2 2+

1/6 x 16 + 4+
4
10 + 7 6+
1/6 x 32 25 + 6
1/6 x 8+
12 + 8
10 +
43 36 + 10 12 +

Roll Choose Roll 12 "Choose"

Copyright (c) 2004, Tom Verhoeff
 Yahtzee Equipment

• 5 Dice: values 1 to 6, equiprobable

• 1 Score Card: 13 primary categories

Yahtzee–7
 Yahtzee Score Card
Category Score
Aces ... ↑
Twos ... |
Threes ... Upper
Fours ... |
Fives ... Section
Sixes ... |
Upper Section Bonus ... ↓
Three of a Kind ... ↑
Four of a Kind ... |
Full House ... Lower
Small Straight ... |
Large Straight ... Section
Yahtzee ... |
Chance ... ↓
Extra Yahtzee Bonus ... Yahtzee–8
GRAND TOTAL ...
 Official Yahtzee Playing Rules

Take empty score card

repeat
Roll all dice
Keep any ∗ dice, reroll other dice
Keep any ∗ dice, reroll other dice
Score roll in any ∗ empty primary category
until all primary categories scored
Calculate GRAND TOTAL for final score

*) Player is free to choose among options

Aim : Maximize final score

Yahtzee–9
 Official Yahtzee Scoring Rules
Category Condition Score
Aces — sum 1s
Twos — sum 2s
Threes — sum 3s
Fours — sum 4s
Fives — sum 5s
Sixes — sum 6s
U. S. Bonus U.S.Tot ≥ 63 35 once
Three of a Kind ≥ 3 equals sum values
Four of a Kind ≥ 4 equals sum values
Full House 2+3 equals ∗ 25
Small Straight ≥ 4 in seq. ∗ 30
Large Straight 5 in seq. ∗ 40
Yahtzee 5 equals 50
Chance — sum values
Extra Y. Bonus 5 equals & Yahtzee–10

50 at Y. 100 each
GRAND TOTAL — sum above
 Joker Rule

*) 5 ys act here as Joker , provided

• Category ys in Upper Section has already been scored, and

• Yahtzee has already been scored

Yahtzee–11
 Dilemmas

• First turn, first roll: 1 1 6 6 6 What to do?

Keep 6 6 6?

Keep all and score 25 in Full House?

• First turn, second roll: 1 1 3 4 6 What to do?

• First turn, third roll: 6 6 6 6 1 What to do?

Score 24 in Sixes?

Score 25 in Four of a Kind?

Yahtzee–12
Random Play (without Bonuses and Jokers)
Expected
Category Probability Score
Aces 1 0.83
Twos 1 1.67
Threes 1 2.50
Fours 1 3.33
Fives 1 4.17
Sixes 1 5.00
Three of a Kind 1656/7776 3.73
Four of a Kind 156/7776 0.35
Full House 300/7776 0.96
Small Straight 1200/7776 4.63
Large Straight 240/7776 1.23
Yahtzee 6/7776 0.04
Chance 1 17.50
GRAND TOTAL 45.95 Yahtzee–13
 Optimality Criteria

• Maximize expected final score

• Minimize variance in final score

• Maximize probability to beat High Score

• Maximize probability to beat opponent

• Maximize minimum final score

Yahtzee–14
 Yathzee Turn Tree
u 1 node

@
A


AA@
@
roll @
@
all @
@
j
u ... j
u ... @
@j
u 65 nodes


@
A A
@




AA@ AA@
@
@
choose @
@
keepers @
@
u ... u ... @
@u 6525


@
A A
@




AA@ AA@
@
@
reroll @
@
others @
@
j
u ... j
u ... @
@j
u 6575


@
A A
@





AA@ AA@
@
@
choose @
@
keepers @
@
u ... u ... @
@u 657525


@
A A
@




AA@ AA@
@
@
reroll @
@
others @
@
j
u ... j
u ... @
@j
u 657575 Yahtzee–15


@
A A
@




AA@ AA@
@
@
choose @
@
category @
 Yahtzee Game Tree

• Number of games:


6 · 7 · 7 · 13! ≈ 1.7 × 10170
5 5 5

• Game probabilities: range from


313
6−5 ≈ 5.5 × 10−151

to

13
6−5 ≈ 3.8 × 10−50

• Number of deterministic strategies:

10100
10 ??

Yahtzee–16
 Reduced Yathzee Turn Graph
u 1 node

@
A


AA@
@
roll @
@
all @
@
@
j
u ... j
u ... @j u 252 nodes
A
@
@
A

AA@
@

AA@


@
choose @
@
keepers @
@
@
u ... u ... @u 462
A
@
@
A

AA@
@

AA@


@
reroll @
@
others @
@
@
j
u ... u
j ... @j u 252
A
@
@
A

AA@
@


AA@


@
choose @
@
keepers @
@
@
u ... u ... @u 462
A
@
@
A

AA@
@

AA@


@
reroll @
@
others @
@
@ Yahtzee–17
j
u ... j
u ... @j u 252
A
@
@
A

AA@
@

AA@


@
choose @
@
category @
 Reduced Yahtzee Game States

Between turns: 218 · 3 = 786 432

• Set of unscored primary categories: 213

• How much needed for Upper Section Bonus:

64 = 26 (0 .. 63)

• Will 5 equals get Extra Yahtzee Bonus:

2 (false, true; only when Yahtzee score box used)

Within turns: 1 + 2 · 462 + 3 · 252 = 1681

Yahtzee–18
 Reduced Yahtzee Game States

• Roll index: 3 (1 .. 3)

• Roll versus Choose: 2


5+6−1
• Rolled dice: 5 = 252


5+7−1
Kept dice: 5 = 462

Yahtzee–18
 Computational Approach

• Dynamic programming

Store optimal-expected-additional-scores to avoid recomputation

• Two-level

Store optimal-expected-additional-score between turns only:

Table of 786 432 reals of 8 byte = 6 MB

Recompute within turns

• Self-initializing

Compute required states only: 536 448

Yahtzee–19
 And now what?

• Characterize optimal strategies

Exact results versus simulation

• Compare to other strategies

E.g. random play

• Investigate effect of rule changes

E.g. 2 or 4 rolls per turn, no Jokers, . . .

Yahtzee–20
 What’s in it for you?

• Optimal Solitaire Yahtzee Player

Submit your game state on WWW and get advice

• Yahtzee Proficiency Test

Play game on WWW and get analysis

• Also available as stand-alone PC program

Yahtzee–21
 Approximate Results

• Numeric Evaluation: Evalute exact recipe with finite precision

Issues:

– numeric stability (rounding, cancellation)

– how many bits precision

• Simulation: Take average over a number of instances

Issues:

– quality of random number generator

– how many instances (variance)

Yahtzee–22
 Dilemmas Resolved

• First turn, first roll: 1 1 6 6 6

Keep 6 6 6: 265.12 ± 61
Keep all and score 25 in Full House: 253.91 ± 57

• First turn, second roll: 1 1 3 4 6

Keep 3 4: 245.17 ± 57
Keep 1 1: 245.14 ± 57
Keep 4: 244.96 ± 57
Keep 3: 244.74 ± 57
Keep none: 244.55 ± 57
Keep 6: 244.52 ± 57
Yahtzee–23
 Dilemmas Resolved

• First turn, third roll: 6 6 6 6 1

Score 24 in Sixes: 268.23 ± 53

Score 25 in Four of a Kind: 260.54 ± 54

Yahtzee–23
 Optimal Strategy Trivia

• Expected final score: 254.59 ± 60

• Median final score: 248

• Best roll in first turn: y y y y y

Score 50 in Yahtzee: 320.84 ± 83

• Worst first roll in first turn: 1 1 2 3 6

Keep 6: 249.83 ± 58

Yahtzee–24
 Optimal Strategy Trivia

• Worst third roll in first turn: 2 3 4 4 6

Score 19 in Chance: 238.96 ± 57

• Minimum score: 12

Yahtzee–24
Final Scores per Category for Optimal Strategy
Category E SD % 0
Aces 1.88 1.22 10.84
Twos 5.28 2.00 1.80
Threes 8.57 2.71 0.95
Fours 12.16 3.29 0.60
Fives 15.69 3.85 0.50
Sixes 19.19 4.64 0.53
U. S. Bonus 23.84 16.31 31.88
Three of a Kind 21.66 5.62 3.26
Four of a Kind 13.10 11.07 36.34
Full House 22.59 7.38 9.63
Small Straight 29.46 3.99 1.80
Large Straight 32.71 15.44 18.22
Yahtzee 16.87 23.64 66.26
Chance 22.01 2.54 0.00
Extra Y. Bonus 9.58 34.08 91.76
GRAND TOTAL 254.59 59.61 0.00
Yahtzee–25
Yahtzees Rolled 0.46 0.69 63.24
Jokers Applied 0.04 0.19 96.30
Final Scores, playing w/o Extra Yahtzee Bonus and Jokers
Category E SD % 0
Aces 1.82 1.14 9.19
Twos 5.25 1.95 1.31
Threes 8.57 2.65 0.59
Fours 12.19 3.24 0.46
Fives 15.74 3.81 0.40
Sixes 19.29 4.61 0.46
U. S. Bonus 24.14 16.19 31.02
Three of a Kind 22.23 5.50 3.44
Four of a Kind 13.04 11.44 39.38
Full House 22.86 6.99 8.54
Small Straight 29.53 3.71 1.55
Large Straight 33.04 15.16 17.40
Yahtzee 15.89 23.28 68.21
Chance 22.26 2.44 0.00
GRAND TOTAL 245.87 39.82 0.00
Yahtzees Rolled 0.41 0.61 64.76 Yahtzee–26
Jokers Applied – – –
Distribution of Final Score for Optimal Strategy
Score range % Cum.%
100 – 119 0 % 0 %
120 – 139 0 % 0 %
140 – 159 2 % 2 %
160 – 179 3 % 5 %
180 – 199 9 % 14 %
200 – 219 13 % 27 %
220 – 239 14 % 41 %
240 – 259 20 % 60 %
260 – 279 19 % 80 %
280 – 299 6 % 86 %
300 – 319 5 % 90 %
320 – 339 2 % 92 %
340 – 359 1 % 93 %
360 – 379 1 % 94 %
380 – 399 2 % 96 %
400 – 419 2 % 98 %
420 – 439 1 % 99 % Yahtzee–27

440 – 459 0 % 99 %
460 – 479 0 % 99 %
Distribution, playing w/o Extra Yahtzee Bonus and Jokers
Score range % Cum.%
100 – 119 0 % 0 %
120 – 139 0 % 0 %
140 – 159 2 % 2 %
160 – 179 3 % 5 %
180 – 199 9 % 14 %
200 – 219 13 % 27 %
220 – 239 14 % 40 %
240 – 259 21 % 61 %
260 – 279 21 % 82 %
280 – 299 8 % 90 %
300 – 319 6 % 97 %
320 – 339 3 % 100 %
340 – 359 0 % 100 %
Results based on simulation of 105 games

Yahtzee–28
Cumulative Distribution of Optimal Final Score

Final score % Games

f scoring < f
152 1 %
180 5 %
195 10 %
218 25 %
248 50 %
273 75 %
319 90 %
388 95 %
474 99 %

Results based on simulation of 106 games

Yahtzee–29
Cumulative Distribution of Final Score

Without Extra Yahtzee Bonus and Jokers

Final score % Games

f scoring < f
152 1 %
180 5 %
195 10 %
218 25 %
248 50 %
271 75 %
299 90 %
317 95 %
327 99 %

Results based on simulation of 106 games

Yahtzee–30
Earliest Scoring per Category for Optimal Strategy
Earliest turn scoring
Category Non-Zero Zero
Aces 1 2
Twos 1 3
Threes 1 4
Fours 1 5
Fives 1 6
Sixes 1 9
Three of a Kind 1 7
Four of a Kind 2 2
Full House 1 5
Small Straight 1 10
Large Straight 1 7
Yahtzee 1 3
Chance 1 never
Yahtzee–31
Last Turn Values per Category (w/o Extra Yahtzee Bonus)

Category E SD % 0
Aces 2.11 1.10 6.49
Twos 4.21 2.21 6.49
Threes 6.32 3.31 6.49
Fours 8.43 4.42 6.49
Fives 10.53 5.52 6.49
Sixes 12.64 6.62 6.49
Three of a Kind 15.19 10.42 28.76
Four of a Kind 5.61 9.66 72.26
Full House 9.15 12.04 63.39
Small Straight 18.48 14.59 38.40
Large Straight 10.61 17.66 73.47
Yahtzee 2.30 10.48 95.40
Chance 23.33 3.16 0.00

Yahtzee–32
Game with Minimum Score of Optimal Strategy
Turn Third Roll Score in Category
1 1 4 4 5 5 1 Aces
2 1 2 3 5 5 2 Twos
3 1 1 2 2 6 0 Four of a Kind
4 1 2 2 4 6 0 Yahtzee
5 1 1 2 2 6 0 Threes
6 1 2 2 3 3 0 Fours
7 1 2 2 3 3 0 Fives
8 1 2 2 3 3 0 Full House
9 1 2 2 3 3 0 Sixes
10 1 1 2 3 3 0 Large Straight
11 1 1 2 2 3 9 Chance
12 4 5 5 6 6 0 Three of a Kind
13 5 6 6 6 6 0 Small Straight
12 GRAND TOTAL
Yahtzee–33
Game of Optimal Strategy against Demonic Dice
Turn Roll/Keep Score in Category
1 1 1 2 3 6
1 2 3 5 6
1 2 3 5 6 1 Aces
2 1 1 2 3 6
1 1 1 2 6
1 1 1 3 4 10 Three of a Kind
3 1 1 2 3 6
1 1 1 3 6
1 1 3 5 6 0 Four of a Kind
4 1 1 1 2 6
1 1 1 2 6
1 2 3 5 5 2 Twos
5 1 1 2 2 6
1 2 2 2 6
2 2 2 4 6 0 Yahtzee
6 1 2 2 2 2
1 2 2 2 2
1 2 2 2 6 0 Threes
Yahtzee–34
7 2 3 3 3 3
2 3 3 3 3
2 2 2 2 3 0 Fours
 Game against Demonic Dice (cont’d)
Turn Roll/Keep Score in Category
8 1 2 2 2 2
2 3 3 3 3
2 2 2 2 3 0 Fives
9 1 2 2 2 2
1 2 2 2 2
2 2 2 3 4 0 Full House
10 2 2 5 5 5
2 3 3 3 3
2 2 2 2 3 0 Sixes
11 2 2 2 6 6
1 2 2 2 2
2 2 2 2 3 0 Large Straight
12 2 2 2 6 6
1 2 2 2 2
1 1 1 1 2 6 Chance
13 5 6 6 6 6
5 5 6 6 6
5 6 6 6 6 0 Small Straight
Yahtzee–35

19 GRAND TOTAL
 Remaining Challenges

• Best strategy to beat given High Score

Approximation via normal distribution and computed mean & vari-

ance

Optimal premature stopping

• Best strategy for Group Yahtzee

Approximation

Yahtzee–36
 References

• Our website since 1999: joint work with Erik Scheffers

• Hans van Maanen . “Ook Yahtzee bezwijkt”, Het Parool, 9-Oct-

1999

• Felix Holderied . German website since 1999

• Olaf Vancura . Advantage Yahtzee. Huntington Press, 2001

• Phil Woodward . “Yahtzee: The Solution”, Chance 16(1):17-20

(Winter 2003)

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Yahtzee–37