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Data Mining
•
 ®

Galit Shmueli
Peter C. Bruce
Nitin R. Patel
 ○

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data applied for.

®
If you have problems setting up or solving your model, or interpreting the results, please
ask your instructor for assistance. Frontline Systems cannot help you with homework
problems.

• !fyou purchase this textbook but you aren't enrolled in a course, call 775-831-0300 and press
ofor assistance with the software.
• If you have a Mac, you'll need to install "dual-boot" or VM software, Microsoft
Windows, and Office or Excel for Windows first. Excel for Mac will NOT work.
For more infonnation see www.solver.comlusing-frontline-solvers-macintosh. Ask
your instructor if you can use your browser and xlminer.com.
• For Excel 2007, always download SolverSetup. In Excel 2010, choose File> Help
and look in the lower right. In Excel 2016 and Excel 2013, choose File> Account
> About Excel and look at the top of the dialog. Download SolverSetup64 ONLY if
you see "64-bit" displayed.
 To our families
Boaz and Noa
Liz, Lisa, and Allison
Tehmi, A1jun, and in
memory of Aneesh
Part I
CHAPTER 1

CHAPTER 2
x CONTENTS

Part II
CHAPTER 3
 CONTENTS xi

CHAPTER 4

Part III
CHAPTER 5
xii CONTENTS

Part IV
CHAPTER 6

CHAPTER 7

CHAPTER 8
 CONTENTS xiii

CHAPTER 9

CHAPTER 10
xiv CONTENTS

CHAPTER 11

CHAPTER 12
 CONTENTS xv

CHAPTER 13

Part V
CHAPTER 14
xvi CONTENTS

CHAPTER 15

Part VI
CHAPTER 16
 CONTENTS xvii

CHAPTER 17

CHAPTER 18

Part VII
CHAPTER 19
xviii CONTENTS

CHAPTER 20

Part VIII
CHAPTER 21
 CONTENTS xix

Background • . . . . . 482
The Mailing Experiment 482
Data. . . . • . . . 482
Assignment • . . . 484
21.4 PoLiticaL Persuasion 486
Background • . . . 486
Predictive AnaLytics Arrives in US PoLitics 486
PoliticaL Targeting. 486
UpLift . . . 487
Data. . . . • . . 488
Assignment • . . 488
21.5 Taxi CanceLlations 490
Business Situation . 490
Assignment • . . . 490
21.6 Segmenting Consumers of Bath Soap 491
Business Situation • 491
Key ProbLems . . . . . . 492
Data. . . . • . . . . . . 492
Measuring Brand LoyaLty. 492
Assignment • . . . . . 494
Appendix . • . . . . . 494
21.7 Direct-Mail Fundraising 495
Background 495
Data. . . . • . . . . 495
Assignment • . . . . 495
21.8 CataLog Cross-SeLLing 497
Background • . . . . 497
Assignment • . . . . 498
21.9 Predicting Bankruptcy . 499
Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy. 499
Assignment • . . . . . . . . . . 500
21.10 Time Series Case: Forecasting PubLic Transportation Demand 502
Background • . . . 502
Problem Description 502
AvailabLe Data . . 502
Assignment GoaL. . 502
Assignment • . . . 503
Tips and Suggested Steps 503

References 504
Data Files Used in the Book 506
Index 508
Foreword

ata is the new gold and mining this gold to create business value in today's
D context of a highly networked and digital society requires a skillset that
we haven't traditionally delivered in business or statistics or even engineering
programs on their own. For those businesses and organizations that feel over-
whelmed by today's big data, the phrase you ain't seen nothing yet comes to mind.
Yesterday's three major sources of big data-the 20+ years of investment in
enterprise systetru (ERP, CRM, SCM, ... ), the three billion plus people on
the online social grid, and the close to 5 billion people carrying increasingly
sophisticated mobile devices-are going to be dwarfed by tomorrow's smarter
physical ecosystetru fueled by the Internet of Things (loT) movement.
The idea that we can use sensors to connect physical objects such as homes,
automobiles, roads, even garbage bins, and street lights, to digitally optimized
systetru of governance goes hand in glove with bigger data and the need for
deeper analytical capabilities. We are not far away from a smart refrigerator
sensing that you are short on, say, eggs, populating your grocery store's mobile
app's shopping list, and arranging a Task Rabbit to do a grocery run for you.
Or the refrigerator negotiating a deal with an Uber driver to deliver an evening
meal to you. Nor are we far away from sensors embedded in roads and vehicles
that can compute traffic congestion, track roadway wear and tear, record vehicle
use, and factor these into dynamic usage based pricing, insurance rates, and even
taxation. This brave new world is going to be fueled by analytics and the ability
to harness data for competitive advantage.
Business Analytics is an emerging discipline that is going to help us ride this
new wave. This new Business Analytics discipline requires individuals who are
grounded in the fundamentals ofbusiness such that they know the right questions
to ask, who have the ability to harness, store, and optimally process vast datasets
from a variety of structured and unstructured sources, and who can then use an
array of techniques from machine learning and statistics to uncover new insights
for decision making. Such individuals are a rare commodity today, but their
creation has been the focus of this book for close to a decade now. This book's
forte is that it relies on explaining the core set of concepts required for today's

XXI
xxii FOREWORD

business analytics professionals using real-world data-rich cases in a hands-on

manner, without sacrificing academic rigor. I say this with the confidence of
someone who was probably the first adopter of the zeroth edition of this book
(Spring 2006 at the Indian School of Business).
What particularly pleases me about the third edition is the addition of
chapters on social network analytics and text mining, as well as a more detailed
focus on ensemble methods that are going to become increasingly useful in
more complex application domains. Also completing the picture are treatments
of collaborative fIltering and recommendation engines. All in all, this edition
represents a comprehensive treatment of business analytics that goes beyond
business intelligence, the notion of viewing the existing data that you have in
a richer manner to get insights. Instead, it provides a modem-day foundation
for Business Analytics, the notion of linking the X's to the Y's of interest in a
predictive sense.
I look forward to using it in multiple fora, from executive education to
MBA classrooms to specialized Business Analytics programs. I trust you will too!
RAVIBAPNA
Carlson School of Management, University ojMinnesota, 2015
Preface to the Third Edition

ince the book's first appearance in early 2007, it has been used by numer-
S ous practitioners and in many courses, ranging from dedicated data mining
classes to more general business analytics courses (including our own experience
teaching this material both online and in person for more than 10 years). Fol-
lowing feedback from instructors teaching MBA, undergraduate, and executive
courses, and from students, we revised some of the existing materials as well as
added new material.
The first noticeable change is the tide: we now use business analyties in place
of business intelligence. This update reflects the change in terminology since the
second edition: BI today refers mainly to reporting and data visualization ("what
is happening now"), while BA has taken over the "advanced analytics," which
include predictive analytics and data mining. In this new edition we therefore
also updated these terms in the book, using them as is currendy common.
We added the new Part VII on Data Analyties, covering two new topics:
Social Network Analysis and Text Mining. The Data Analytics chapters expand
data mining into the realm of new data structures: networks and text. As in the
rest of the book, Excel-based tools are used to present these topics.
The new chapter on Social Network Analysis (Chapter 19) introduces met-
rics and graphs that help you understand connections among people and entities,
and use that information to understand social networks, and to contribute addi-
tional depth to predictive models.
The new Text Mining chapter (Chapter 20) discusses how to process text,
and convert it into a useful form for predictive modeling, where the modeling
then follows the same paradigm as presented earlier in the book.
Another new chapter to the third edition is "Combining Methods: En-
sembles and Uplifi Modeling" (Chapter 13). This chapter, which is the last in
Part IV on "Prediction and Classification Methods," introduces two important
approaches. The first, ensembles, are the combination of multiple models for
improving predictive power. Ensembles have routinely proved their usefulness
in practical applications and in data tnining contests. The second topic, Uplifi
Modeling, introduces an improved approach for measuring the impact of an

XXIII
xxiv PREFACE TO THE THIRD EDITION

intervention, and also introduces the application of analytics by governments.

Similar to other chapters, the new chapters include real-world examples and
end-of-chapter problems.
In addition to the new chapters, we extended coverage of methods in some
of the chapters. The chapter on association rules is now expanded to recom-
mendation algorithms, with an additional section on the popular collaborative
filtering approach.
The Cases chapter includes two new cases: one on political persuasion and
uplift modeling, and another on taxi cancellations. Both use real data.
An important update in the third edition is an extensive revision of each
of the examples, boxes with special topics, and exercises that rely on XLMiner
software. Since the second edition, XLMiner has undergone several upgrades
that improved speed, functionality, presentation, and algorithmic implementa-
tion. The XLMiner screenshots in the third edition are based on using the latest
XLMiner version (currently, V20 15-R2).
Since the second edition's appearance, the landscape of the courses using the
textbook has greatly expanded: whereas initially the book was used mainly in
semester-long elective MBA-level courses, it is now used in a variety ofcourses in
Business Analytics degree and certificate programs, ranging from undergraduate
programs, to postgraduate and executive education programs. Courses in such
programs also vary in their duration and coverage. In many schools, our book is
used across multiple courses. The book is designed to continue supporting the
general "Predictive Analytics" or "Data Mining" course as well as supporting a
set of courses in dedicated business analytics programs.
A general "Business Analytics," "Predictive Analytics," or "Data Mining"
course, common in MBA and undergraduate programs as a one-semester elec-
tive, would cover Parts I to III, and choose a subset of methods from Parts IV
and V. Instructors can choose to use Cases as team assignments, class discussions,
or projects. For a two-semester course, Part VI might be considered, and we
recommend introducing the new Part VII (Data Analytics).
For a set of courses in a dedicated business analytics program, here are a few
courses that have been using our book:

Predictive Analytics: Supervised Learning In a dedicated Business An-

alytics program, the topic of Predictive Analytics is typically instructed across
a set of courses. The first course would cover Parts I to IV and instructors
typically choose a subset of methods from Part IV according to the course
length. We recommend including the new Chapter 3 in such a course, as
well as the new "Part VII: Data Analytics."
Predictive Analytics: Unsupervised Learning This course introduces
data exploration and visualization, dimension reduction, mining relation-
ships, and clustering (parts III and V). If this course follows the Predictive
 PREFACE TO THE THIRD Edition xxv

Analytics: Supervised Learnmg course, then it is useful to examine examples

and approaches that integrate unsupervised and supervised learning, such as
the new part on "Data Analytics."
Forecasting Analytics A dedicated course on time series forecasting
would rely on Part VI.
Advanced Analytics A course that integrates the learnings from Predictive
Analytics (supervised and unsupervised learnmg). Such a course can focus
on Part VII: Data Analytics, where social network analytics and text mining
are introduced. Some instructors choose to use the Cases chapter in such a
course.

In all courses, we strongly recommend including a project component, where

data are either collected by students according to their interest or provided by
the instructor (e.g., from the many data mining competition datasets available).
From our experience and other instructors' experience, such projects enhance
the learnmg and provide students with an excellent opportunity to understand
the strengths of data mining and the challenges that arise in the process.
Important Note: A cloud based version of XLMiner is now available on the
web that significant expands the range of potential users, freeing them from
the constraints of using Excel or Windows. The cloud version functions nearly
identically to the Excel-based version illustrated in these pages, so can effectively
be used with this book.
Preface to the First Edition

his book arose out of a data mining course at MIT's Sloan School of
T Management and was refined during its use in data mining courses at the
University of Maryland's R. H. Smith School of Business and at statistics.com.
Preparation for the course revealed that there are a number of excellent books
on the business context of data mining, but their coverage of the statistical and
machine-learning algorithms that underlie data mining is not sufficiendy detailed
to provide a practical guide if the instructor's goal is to equip students with the
skills and tools to implement those algorithms. On the other hand, there are also
a number of more technical books about data mining algorithms, but these are
aimed at the statistical researcher or more advanced graduate student, and do not
provide the case-oriented business focus that is successful in teaching business
students.
Hence, this book is intended for the business student (and practitioner) of
data mining techniques, and its goal is threefold:

1. To provide both a theoretical and a practical understanding of the key

methods of classification, prediction, reduction, and exploration that are
at the heart of data mining.
2. To provide a business decision-making context for these methods.
3. Using real business cases, to illustrate the application and interpretation
of these methods.

The presentation of the cases in the book is structured so that the reader can
follow along and implement the algorithms on his or her own with a very low
learning hurdle.
Just as a natural science course without a lab component would seem incom-
plete, a data mining course without practical work with actual data is missing a
key ingredient. The MIT data mining course that gave rise to this book followed
an introductory quantitative course that relied on Excel-this made its practical
work universally accessible. Using Excel for data mining seemed a natural pro-
gression. An important feature of this book is the use of Excel, an environment

XXVII
Random documents with unrelated
content Scribd suggests to you:
Kudmulwādu, from kudmul, a preparation of rice; Kolmulwādu, from kolmul, a treasure-
pit; Lingawādu, from the linga emblem; and Nāgulwādu, a ploughman. The second
group contains the following septs: Kodamajjiwādu, a hunter and trapper of animals;
Wargaiwādu, one who makes ropes from wood-fibre; Paspulwādu, one who prepares
turmeric; Pankiwādu, one who distributes cooked food; Bhandārīwādu, a rich man; and
one or two others. The rule is that no man or woman of a sept belonging to the first
group should marry in any other sept of that group, but always from some sept of the
other. This, therefore, appears to be a relic of the classificatory system of marriage,
which obtains among the Australian aborigines. The rule is now, however, sometimes
violated. The caste say that their ancestors came from Warangal with the ruling family of
Bastar.

3. Admission of outsiders.

They will admit Brāhmans, Rājpūts and Halbas into the community. If a man of any of
these castes has a child by a Telenga woman, this child will be considered to belong to
the same group of the Jhādi Telengas as its mother. If a man of lower caste, such as
Rāwat, Dhākar, Jangam, Kumhār or Kalār has such a child it will be admitted into the
next lower group than that to which the mother belonged. Thus the child of a Purāit
woman by one of these castes will become a Surāit. A Telenga woman having a child by
a Gond, Sunār, Lohār or Mehra man is put out of caste.

4. Marriage.

A girl cannot be properly married unless the ceremony is performed before she arrives at
puberty. After this she can only be married by an abridged rite, which consists of rubbing
her with oil and turmeric, investing her with glass bangles and a new cloth, and giving a
feast to the caste. In such a case the bridegroom first goes through a sham marriage with
the branch of a mahua tree. The boy’s father looks out for a girl, and the most suitable
match is considered to be his sister’s daughter. Before giving away his daughter he must
ask his wife’s brother and his own sister whether they want her for one of their sons.
When setting out to make a proposal they take the omens from a bird called Usi. The
best omen is to hear this bird’s call on both sides of them as they go into the jungle.
When asking for the girl the envoys say to her father, ‘You have got rice and pulse; give
them to us for our friend’s son.’ The wedding should be held on a Monday or Thursday,
and the bridegroom should arrive at the bride’s village on a Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday
or Friday. The sacred post in the centre of the marriage-shed must be of the mahua2 tree,
which is no doubt held sacred by these people, as by the Gonds, because spirituous
liquor is made from its fruit. A widow must mourn her husband for a month, and can
then marry again. But she may not marry her late husband’s brother, nor his first cousin,
nor any member of her father’s sept. Divorce is allowed, but no man will divorce his
wife unless she leaves him of her own accord or is known to be intriguing with a man of
lower caste.

5. Religion.

Each sept has a deity of its own who is usually some local god symbolised by a wooden
post or a stone. Instances of these are Kondrāj of Santoshpur represented by a wooden
pillar carved into circular form at the top; Chikat Rāj of Bijāpur by two bamboos six feet
in length leaning against a wall; Kaunam Rāj of Gongla by a stone image, and at fairs by
a bamboo with peacock’s feathers tied at the top. They offer incense, rice and a fowl to
their ancestors in their own houses in Chait (March) at the new year, and at the festival
of the new rice in Bhādon (August). At the sowing festival they go out hunting, and
those who return empty-handed think they will have ill-luck. Each tenant also worships
the earth-goddess, whose image is then decorated with flowers and vermilion. He brings
a goat, and rice is placed before it at her shrine. If the animal eats the sacrifice is held to
be accepted, but if not it is returned to the owner, and it is thought that some misfortune
will befall him. The heads of all the goats offered are taken by the priest and the bodies
returned to the worshippers to be consumed at a feast. Each village has also its tutelary
god, having a hut to himself. Inside this a post of mahua wood is fixed in the ground and
roughly squared, and a peg is driven into it at the top. The god is represented by another
bamboo peg about two inches long, which is first worshipped in front of the post and
then suspended from it in a receptacle. In each village the smallpox goddess is also
present in the form of a stone, either with or without a hut over it. A Jangam or devotee
of the Lingāyat sect is usually the caste priest, and at a funeral he follows the corpse
ringing his bell. If a man is put out of caste through getting maggots in a wound or being
beaten by a shoe, he must be purified by the Jangam. The latter rubs some ashes on his
own body and places them in the offender’s mouth, and gives him to drink some water
from his own lota in place of water from a sacred river. For this the offender pays a fee
of five rupees and a calf to the Jangam and must also give a feast to the caste. The dead
are either buried or burnt, the head being placed to the east. The eldest son has his head
and face shaved on the death of the father of the family, and the youngest on that of the
mother.

6. Names.

A child is named on the seventh or eighth day after birth by the old women. If it is much
given to crying they consider the name unsuitable and change it, repeating those of
deceased relatives. When the child stops crying at the mention of a particular name, they
consider that the relative mentioned has been born again in the child and name it after
him. Often the name of the sept is combined with the personal name as Lingam-Lachha,
Lingam-Kachchi, Pānki-Samāya, Pānki-Ganglu, Pānki-Buchcham, Nāgul-Sama, Nāgul-
Mutta.

7. Magical devices

When a man wishes to destroy an enemy he makes an image of him with earth and offers
a pig and goat to the family god, praying for the enemy’s destruction. Then the operator
takes a frog or a tree-lizard which has been kept ready and breaks all its limbs, thinking
that the limbs of his enemy will similarly be broken and that the man will die. Or he
takes some grains of kossa, a small millet, and proceeds to a sāj3 or mahua tree. A
pigeon is offered to the tree and to the family god, and both are asked to destroy the foe.
The man then ascends the tree, and muttering incantations throws the grains in the
direction of his enemy thinking that they will enter his body and destroy him. To
counteract these devices a man who thinks himself bewitched calls in the aid of a
wizard, who sucks out of his body the grains or other evil things which have been caused
to enter it as shown above. Occasionally a man will promise a human sacrifice to his
god. For this he must get some hair or a piece of cloth belonging to somebody else and
wash it in water in the name of the god, who may then kill the owner of the hair or cloth
and thus obtain the sacrifice. Or the sacrificer may pick a quarrel and assault the other
person so as to draw blood from him. He picks up a drop or two of the blood and offers
it to the deity with the same end in view.
8. Occupation.

The caste are cultivators and farmservants, and are, as a rule, very poor, living from hand
to mouth. They practise shifting cultivation and are too lazy to grow the more valuable
crops. They eat grain twice a day during the four months from October to January only,
and at other times eke out their scanty provision with edible roots and leaves, and hunt
and fish in the forest like the Muria and Māria Gonds.

1 This article is entirely based on an account of the caste furnished by Rai Bahādur Panda Baijnāth,
Superintendent, Bastar State.
2 Bassia latifolia.
3 Boswellia serrata.
 JOGI

[Bibliography: Sir E. Maclagan’s Punjab Census Report (1891); Mr. Crooke’s Tribes
and Castes, articles Jogi, Kānphata and Aghorpanthi; Mr. Kitts’ Berār Census Report
(1881); Professor Oman’s Mystics, Ascetics and Saints of India (London: T. Fisher
Unwin).]

List of Paragraphs

1. The Yoga philosophy. 243

2. Abstraction of the senses or autohypnotism. 244
3. Breathing through either nostril. 246
4. Self-torture of the Jogis. 247
5. Resort to them for oracles. 249
6. Divisions of the order. 250
7. Hair and clothes. 250
8. Burial. 251
9. Festivals. 252
10. Caste subdivisions. 252
11. Begging. 252
12. Other occupations. 253
13. Swindling practices. 253
14. Proverbs about Jogis. 254

1. The Yoga philosophy.

Jogi, Yogi.—The well-known order of religious mendicants and devotees of Siva. The
Jogi or Yogi, properly so called, is a follower of the Yoga system of philosophy founded
by Pātanjali, the main characteristics of which are a belief in the power of man over
nature by means of austerities and the occult influences of the will. The idea is that one
who has obtained complete control over himself, and entirely subdued all fleshly desires,
acquires such potency of mind and will that he can influence the forces of nature at his
pleasure. The Yoga philosophy has indeed so much sub-stratum of truth that a man who
has complete control of himself has the strongest will, and hence the most power to
influence others, and an exaggerated idea of this power is no doubt fostered by the
display of mesmeric control and similar phenomena. The fact that the influence which
can be exerted over other human beings through their minds in no way extends to the
physical phenomena of inanimate nature is obvious to us, but was by no means so to the
uneducated Hindus, who have no clear conceptions of the terms mental and physical,
animate and inanimate, nor of the ideas connoted by them. To them all nature was
animate, and all its phenomena the results of the actions of sentient beings, and hence it
was not difficult for them to suppose that men could influence the proceedings of such
beings. And it is a matter of common knowledge that savage peoples believe their
magicians to be capable of producing rain and fine weather, and even of controlling the
course of the sun.1 The Hindu sacred books indeed contain numerous instances of
ascetics who by their austerities acquired such powers as to compel the highest gods
themselves to obedience.

Jogi mendicants of the Kanphata sect

2. Abstraction of the senses or autohypnotism.

The term Yoga is held to mean unity or communion with God, and the Yogi by virtue of
his painful discipline and mental and physical exercises considered himself divine. “The
adept acquires the knowledge of everything past and future, remote or hidden; he divines
the thoughts of others, gains the strength of an elephant, the courage of a lion, and the
swiftness of the wind; flies into the air, floats in the water, and dives into the earth,
contemplates all worlds at one glance and performs many strange things.”2

The following excellent instance of the pretensions of the Yogis is given by Professor
Oman:3 “Wolff went also with Mr. Wilson to see one of the celebrated Yogis who was
lying in the sun in the street, the nails of whose hands were grown into his cheeks and a
bird’s nest upon his head. Wolff asked him, ‘How can one obtain the knowledge of
God?’ He replied, ‘Do not ask me questions; you may look at me, for I am God.’

“It is certainly not easy at the present day,” Professor Oman states,4 “for the western
mind to enter into the spirit of the so-called Yoga philosophy; but the student of religious
opinions is aware that in the early centuries of our era the Gnostics, Manichæans and
Neo-Platonists derived their peculiar tenets and practices from the Yoga-vidya of India,
and that at a later date the Sufi philosophy of Persia drew its most remarkable ideas from
the same source.5 The great historian of the Roman Empire refers to the subject in the
following passage: “The Fakīrs of India and the monks of the Oriental Church, were
alike persuaded that in total abstraction of the faculties of the mind and body, the pure
spirit may ascend to the enjoyment and vision of the Deity. The opinion and practice of
the monasteries of Mount Athos will be best represented in the words of an abbot, who
flourished in the eleventh century: ‘When thou art alone in thy cell,’ says the ascetic
teacher, ‘Shut thy door, and seat thyself in a corner, raise thy mind above all things vain
and transitory, recline thy beard and chin on thy breast, turn thine eyes and thy thoughts
towards the middle of the belly, the region of the navel, and search the place of the heart,
the seat of the soul. At first all will be dark and comfortless; but if you persevere day and
night, you will feel an ineffable joy; and no sooner has the soul discovered the place of
the heart, than it is involved in a mystic and ethereal light.’ This light, the production of a
distempered fancy, the creature of an empty stomach and an empty brain, was adored by
the Quietists as the pure and perfect essence of God Himself.”6

“Without entering into unnecessary details, many of which are simply disgusting, I shall
quote, as samples, a few of the rules of practice required to be followed by the would-be
Yogi in order to induce a state of Samādhi—hypnotism or trance—which is the
condition or state in which the Yogi is to enjoy the promised privileges of Yoga. The
extracts are from a treatise on the Yoga philosophy by Assistant Surgeon Nobin Chander
Pāl.”7

“Place the left foot upon the right thigh, and the right foot upon the left thigh; hold with
the right hand the right great toe and with the left hand the left great toe (the hands
coming from behind the back and crossing each other); rest the chin on the
interclavicular space, and fix the sight on the tip of the nose.
“Inspire through the left nostril, fill the stomach with the inspired air by the act of
deglutition, suspend the breath, and expire through the right nostril. Next inspire through
the right nostril, swallow the inspired air, suspend the breath, and finally expire through
the left nostril.

“Be seated in a tranquil posture, and fix your sight on the tip of the nose for the space of
ten minutes.

“Close the ears with the middle fingers, incline the head a little to the right side and
listen with each ear attentively to the sound produced by the other ear, for the space of
ten minutes.

“Pronounce inaudibly twelve thousand times the mystic syllable Om, and meditate upon
it daily after deep inspirations.

“After a few forcible inspirations swallow the tongue, and thereby suspend the breath
and deglutate the saliva for two hours.

“Listen to the sounds within the right ear abstractedly for two hours, with the left ear.

“Repeat the mystic syllable Om 20,736,000 times in silence and meditate upon it.

“Suspend the respiratory movements for the period of twelve days, and you will be in a
state of Samādhi.”

Another account of a similar procedure is given by Buchanan:8 “Those who pretend to

be eminent saints perform the ceremony called Yoga, described in the Tantras. In the
accomplishment of this, by shutting what are called the nine passages (dwāra, lit. doors)
of the body, the votary is supposed to distribute the breath into the different parts of the
body, and thus to obtain the beatific vision of various gods. It is only persons who
abstain from the indulgence of concupiscence that can pretend to perform this ceremony,
which during the whole time that the breath can be held in the proper place excites an
ecstasy equal to whatever woman can bestow on man.”
3. Breathing through either nostril.

It is clear that the effect of some of the above practices is designed to produce a state of
mind resembling the hypnotic trance. The Yogis attach much importance to the effect of
breathing through one or the other nostril, and this is also the case with Hindus generally,
as various rules concerning it are prescribed for the daily prayers of Brāhmans. To have
both nostrils free and be breathing through them at the same time is not good, and one
should not begin any business in this condition. If one is breathing only through the right
nostril and the left is closed, the condition is propitious for the following actions: To eat
and drink, as digestion will be quick; to fight; to bathe; to study and read; to ride on a
horse; to work at one’s livelihood. A sick man should take medicine when he is breathing
through his right nostril. To be breathing only through the left nostril is propitious for the
following undertakings: To lay the foundations of a house and to take up residence in a
new house; to put on new clothes; to sow seed; to do service or found a village; to make
any purchase. The Jogis practise the art of breathing in this manner by stopping up their
right and left nostril alternately with cotton-wool and breathing only through the other. If
a man comes to a Brāhman to ask him whether some business or undertaking will
succeed, the Brāhman breathes through his nostrils on to his hand; if the breath comes
through the right nostril the omen is favourable and the answer yes; if through the left
nostril the omen is unfavourable and the answer no.

4. Self-torture of the Jogis.

The following account of the austerities of the Jogis during the Mughal period is given
by Bernier:9 “Among the vast number and endless variety of Fakīrs or Dervishes, and
holy men or Gentile hypocrites of the Indies, many live in a sort of convent, governed by
superiors, where vows of chastity, poverty, and submission are made. So strange is the
life led by these votaries that I doubt whether my description of it will be credited. I
allude particularly to the people called ‘Jogis,’ a name which signifies ‘United to God.’
Numbers are seen day and night, seated or lying on ashes, entirely naked; frequently
under the large trees near talābs or tanks of water, or in the galleries round the Deuras or
idol temples. Some have hair hanging down to the calf of the leg, twisted and entangled
into knots, like the coats of our shaggy dogs. I have seen several who hold one, and
some who hold both arms perpetually lifted above the head, the nails of their hands
being twisted and longer than half my little finger, with which I measured them. Their
arms are as small and thin as the arms of persons who die in a decline, because in so
forced and unnatural a position they receive not sufficient nourishment, nor can they be
lowered so as to supply the mouth with food, the muscles having become contracted, and
the articulations dry and stiff. Novices wait upon these fanatics and pay them the utmost
respect, as persons endowed with extraordinary sanctity. No fury in the infernal regions
can be conceived more horrible than the Jogis, with their naked and black skin, long hair,
spindle arms, long twisted nails, and fixed in the posture which I have mentioned.

“I have often met, generally in the territory of some Rāja, bands of these naked Fakīrs,
hideous to behold. Some have their arms lifted up in the manner just described; the
frightful hair of others either hung loosely or was tied and twisted round their heads;
some carried a club like the Hercules, others had a dry and rough tiger-skin thrown over
their shoulders. In this trim I have seen them shamelessly walk stark naked through a
large town, men, women, and girls looking at them without any more emotion than may
be created when a hermit passes through our streets. Females would often bring them
alms with much devotion, doubtless believing that they were holy personages, more
chaste and discreet than other men.

“Several of these Fakīrs undertake long pilgrimages not only naked but laden with heavy
iron chains, such as are put about the legs of elephants. I have seen others who, in
consequence of a particular vow, stood upright during seven or eight days without once
sitting or lying down, and without any other support than might be afforded by leaning
forward against a cord for a few hours in the night; their legs in the meantime were
swollen to the size of their thighs. Others, again, I have observed standing steadily,
whole hours together, upon their hands, the head down and the feet in the air. I might
proceed to enumerate various other positions in which these unhappy men place their
body, many of them so difficult and painful that they could not be imitated by our
tumblers; and all this, let it be recollected is performed from an assumed feeling of piety,
of which there is not so much as the shadow in any part of the Indies.”

5. Resort to them for oracles.

The forest ascetics were credited with prophetic powers, and were resorted to by Hindu
princes to obtain omens and oracles on the brink of any important undertaking. This
custom is noticed by Colonel Tod in the following passage describing the foundation of
Jodhpur:10 “Like the Druids of the cells, the vana-perist Jogis, from the glades of the
forest (vana) or recess in the rocks (gopha), issue their oracles to those whom chance or
design may conduct to their solitary dwellings. It is not surprising that the mandates of
such beings prove compulsory on the superstitious Rājpūt; we do not mean those squalid
ascetics who wander about India and are objects disgusting to the eye, but the genuine
Jogi, he who, as the term imports, mortifies the flesh, till the wants of humanity are
restricted merely to what suffices to unite matter with spirit, who had studied and
comprehended the mystic works and pored over the systems of philosophy, until the full
influence of Maia (illusion) has perhaps unsettled his understanding; or whom the rules
of his sect have condemned to penance and solitude; a penance so severe that we remain
astonished at the perversity of reason which can submit to it. We have seen one of these
objects, self-condemned never to lie down during forty years, and there remained but
three to complete the term. He had travelled much, was intelligent and learned, but, far
from having contracted the moroseness of the recluse, there was a benignity of mien and
a suavity and simplicity of manner in him quite enchanting. He talked of his penance
with no vainglory and of its approaching term without any sensation. The resting
position of this Druid (vana-perist) was by means of a rope suspended from the bough of
a tree in the manner of a swing, having a cross-bar, on which he reclined. The first years
of this penance, he says, were dreadfully painful; swollen limbs affected him to that
degree that he expected death, but this impression had long since worn off. To these, the
Druids of India, the prince and the chieftain would resort for instruction. Such was the
ascetic who recommended Joda to erect his castle of Jodhpur on the ‘Hill of Strife’
(Jodagīr), a projecting elevation of the same range on which Mundore was placed, and
about four miles south of it.”

Jogi musicians with sārangi or fiddle

6. Divisions of the order.

About 15,000 Jogis were returned from the Central Provinces in 1911. They are said to
be divided into twelve Panths or orders, each of which venerates one of the twelve
disciples of Gorakhnāth. But, as a rule, they do not know the names of the Panths. Their
main divisions are the Kanphata and Aughar Jogis. The Kanphatas,11 as the name
denotes, pierce their ears and wear in them large rings (mundra), generally of wood,
stone or glass; the ears of a novice are pierced by the Guru, who gets a fee of Rs. 1–4.
The earring must thereafter always be worn, and should it be broken must be replaced
temporarily by a model in cloth before food is taken. If after the ring has been inserted
the ear tears apart, they say that the man has become useless, and in former times he was
buried alive. Now he is put out of caste, and no tomb is erected over him when he dies. It
is said that a man cannot become a Kanphata all at once, but must first serve an
apprenticeship of twelve years as an Aughar, and then if his Guru is satisfied he will be
initiated as a Kanphata. The elect among the Kanphatas are known as Darshani. These
do not go about begging, but remain in the forest in a cave or other abode, and the other
Jogis go there and pay their respects; this is called darshan, the term used for visiting a
temple and worshipping the idol. These men only have cooked food when their disciples
bring it to them, otherwise they live on fruits and roots. The Aughars do not pierce their
ears, but have a string of black sheep’s wool round the neck to which is suspended a
wooden whistle called nadh; this is blown morning and evening and before meals.12 The
names of the Kanphatas end in Nāth and those of the Aughars in Dās.

7. Hair and clothes.

When a novice is initiated all the hair of his head is shaved, including the scalp-lock. If
the Ganges is at hand the Guru throws the hair into the Ganges, giving a great feast to
celebrate the occasion; otherwise he keeps the hair in his wallet until he and his disciple
reach the Ganges and then throws it into the river and gives the feast. After this the Jogi
lets all his hair grow until he comes to some great shrine, when he shaves it off clean and
gives it as an offering to the god. The Jogis wear clothes coloured with red ochre like the
Jangams, Sanniāsis and all the Sivite orders. The reddish colour perhaps symbolises
blood and may denote that the wearers still sacrifice flesh and consume it. The
Vaishnavite orders usually wear white clothes, and hence the Jogis call themselves Lāl
Pādris (red priests), and they call the Vaishnava mendicants Sīta Pādris, apparently
because Sīta is the consort of Rāma, the incarnation of Vishnu. When a Jogi is initiated
the Guru gives him a single bead of rudrāksha wood which he wears on a string round
his neck. He is not branded, but afterwards, if he visits the temple of Dwārka in Gujarāt,
he is branded with the mark of the conch-shell on the arm; or if he goes on pilgrimage to
the shrine of Badri-Nārāyan in the Himālayas he is branded on the chest. Copper bangles
are brought from Badri-Nārāyan and iron ones from the shrine of Kedārnāth. A necklace
of small white stones, like juāri-seeds, is obtained from the temple of Hinglāj in the
territories of the Jām of Lāsbela in Beluchistān. During his twelve years’ period as a
Brahmachari or acolyte, a Jogi will make either one or three parikramas of the
Nerbudda; that is, he walks from the mouth at Broach to the source at Amarkantak on
one side of the river and back again on the other side, the journey usually occupying
about three years. During each journey he lets his hair grow and at the end of it makes an
offering of all except the choti or scalp-lock to the river. Even as a full Jogi he still
retains the scalp-lock, and this is not finally shaved off until he turns into a Sanniāsi or
forest recluse. Other Jogis, however, do not merely keep the scalp-lock but let their hair
grow, plaiting it with ropes of black wool over their heads into what is called the jata,
that is an imitation of Siva’s matted locks.13

8. Burial.

The Jogis are buried sitting cross-legged with the face to the north in a tomb which has a
recess like those of Muhammadans. A gourd full of milk and some bread in a wallet, a
crutch and one or two earthen vessels are placed in the grave for the sustenance of the
soul. Salt is put on the body and a ball of wheat-flour is laid on the breast of the corpse
and then deposited on the top of the grave.

9. Festivals.

The Jogis worship Siva, and their principal festival is the Shivrātri, when they stay
awake all night and sing songs in honour of Gorakhnāth, the founder of their order. On
the Nāg-Panchmi day they venerate the cobra and they take about snakes and exhibit
them.
10. Caste subdivisions.

A large proportion of the Jogis have now developed into a caste, and these marry and
have families. They are divided into subcastes according to the different professions they
have adopted. Thus the Barwa or Gārpagāri Jogis ward off hailstorms from the standing
crops; the Manihāri are pedlars and travel about to bazārs selling various small articles;
the Rītha Bikanāth prepare and sell soap-nut for washing clothes; the Patbina make
hempen thread and gunny-bags for carrying grain on bullocks; and the Ladaimār hunt
jackals and sell and eat their flesh. These Jogis rank as a low Hindu caste of the menial
group. No good Hindu caste will take food or water from them, while they will accept
cooked food from members of any caste of respectable position, as Kurmis, Kunbis or
Mālis. A person belonging to any such caste can also be admitted into the Jogi
community. Their social customs resemble those of the cultivating castes of the locality.
They permit widow-marriage and divorce and employ Brāhmans for their ceremonies,
with the exception of the Kanphatas, who have priests of their own order.

11. Begging.

Begging is the traditional occupation of the Jogis, but they have now adopted many
others. The Kanphatas beg and sell a woollen string amulet (ganda), which is put round
the necks of children to protect them from the evil eye. They beg only from Hindus and
use the cry ‘Alakh,’ ‘The invisible one.’14 The Nandia Jogis lead about with them a
deformed ox, an animal with five legs or some other malformation. He is decorated with
ochre-coloured rags and cowrie shells. They call him Nandi or the bull on which
Mahādeo rides, and receive gifts of grain from pious Hindus, half of which they put into
their wallet and give the other half to the animal. They usually carry on a more profitable
business than other classes of beggars. The ox is trained to give a blessing to the
benevolent by shaking its head and raising its leg when its master receives a gift.15 Some
of the Jogis of this class carry about with them a brush of peacock’s feathers which they
wave over the heads of children afflicted with the evil eye or of sick persons, muttering
texts. This performance is known as jhārna (sweeping), and is the commonest method of
casting out evil spirits.
12. Other occupations.

Many Jogis have also adopted secular occupations, as has already been seen. Of these
the principal are the Manihāri Jogis or pedlars, who retail small hand-mirrors, spangles,
dyeing-powders, coral beads and imitation jewellery, pens, pencils, and other small
articles of stationery. They also bring pearls and coral from Bombay and sell them in the
villages. The Gārpagāris, who protect the crops from hailstorms, have now become a
distinct caste and are the subject of a separate article. Others make a living by juggling
and conjuring, and in Saugor some Jogis perform the three-card trick in the village
markets, employing a confederate who advises customers to pick out the wrong card.
They also play the English game of Sandown, which is known as ‘Animur,’ from the
practice of calling out ‘Any more’ as a warning to backers to place their money on the
board before beginning to turn the fish.

13. Swindling practices.

These people also deal in ornaments of base metal and practise other swindles. One of
their tricks is to drop a ring or ornament of counterfeit gold on the road. Then they watch
until a stranger picks it up and one of them goes up to him and says, “I saw you pick up
that gold ring, it belongs to so-and-so, but if you will make it worth my while I will say
nothing about it.” The finder is thus often deluded into giving him some hush-money and
the Jogis decamp with this, having incurred no risk in connection with the spurious
metal. They also pretend to be able to convert silver and other metals into gold. They
ingratiate themselves with the women, sometimes of a number of households in one
village or town, giving at first small quantities of gold in exchange for silver, and
binding them to secrecy. Then each is told to give them all the ornaments which she
desires to be converted on the same night, and having collected as much as possible from
their dupes the Jogis make off before morning. A very favourite device some years back
was to personate some missing member of a family who had gone on a pilgrimage. Up
to within a comparatively recent period a large proportion of the pilgrims who set out
annually from all over India to visit the famous shrines at Benāres, Jagannāth and other
places perished by the way from privation or disease, or were robbed and murdered, and
never heard of again by their families. Many households in every town and village were
thus in the position of having an absent member of whose fate they were uncertain.
Taking advantage of this, and having obtained all the information he could pick up
among the neighbours, the Jogi would suddenly appear in the character of the returned
wanderer, and was often successful in keeping up the imposture for years.16

14. Proverbs about Jogis.

The Jogi is a familiar figure in the life of the people and there are various sayings about
him:17 Jogi Jogi laren, khopron ka dām, or ‘When Jogis fight skulls are smashed,’ that
is, the skulls which some of them use as begging-cups, not their own skulls, and with the
implication that they have nothing else to break; Jogi jugat jāni nahīn, kapre range, to
kya hua, ‘If the Jogi does not know his magic, what is the use of his dyeing his clothes?’
Jogi ka larka khelega, to sānp se, or, ‘If a snake-charmer’s son plays, he plays with a
snake.’

1 This has been fully demonstrated by Sir J. G. Frazer in The Golden Bough.
2 Colebrooke’s Essays.
3 Quoting from Dr. George Smith’s Life of Dr. Wilson, p. 74.
4 Ibidem, pp. 13–15.
5 Weber’s Indian Literature, p. 239.
6 Gibbon’s Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, chap, lxiii.
7 Republished in the Theosophist.
8 Eastern India, ii. p. 756.
9 Travels in the Mughal Empire, Constable’s edition, p. 316.
10 Rājasthān, ii. p. 19.
11 Maclagan, l.c. p. 115.
12 Ibidem, l.c.
13 Maclagan, l.c.
14 Crooke’s Tribes and Castes, art. Kanphata.
15 Crooke’s Tribes and Castes, art. Jogi.
16 Sleeman, Report on the Badhaks, pp. 332, 333.
17 These proverbs are taken from Temple and Fallon’s Hindustāni Proverbs.
 JOSHI

List of Paragraphs

1. The village priest and astrologer. 255

2. The apparent path of the sun. The ecliptic or zodiac. 257
3. Inclination of the ecliptic to the equator. 259
4. The orbits of the moon and planets. 259
5. The signs of the zodiac. 260
6. The Sankrānts. 261
7. The nakshatras or constellations of the moon’s path. 261
8. The revolution of the moon. 263
9. The days of the week. 264
10. The lunar year. 266
11. Intercalary months. 266
12. Superstitions about numbers. 267
13. The Hindu months. 268
14. The solar nakshatras. 270
15. Lunar fortnights and days. 270
16. Divisions of the day. 271
17. The Joshi’s calculations. 272
18. Personal names. 273
19. Terminations of names. 277
20. Women’s names. 277
21. Special names and bad names. 278

1. The village priest and astrologer.

Joshi, Jyotishi, Bhadri, Parsai.—The caste of village priests and astrologers. They
numbered about 6000 persons in 1911, being distributed over all Districts. The Joshis are
nearly all Brāhmans, but have now developed into a separate caste and marry among
themselves. Their social customs resemble those of Brāhmans, and need not be
described in detail. The Joshi officiates at weddings in the village, selects auspicious
names for children according to the nakshatra or constellation of the moon under which
they were born, and points out the auspicious time or mahūrat for all such ceremonies
and for the commencement of agricultural operations. He is also sometimes in charge of
the village temples. He is supported by the contributions from the villagers, and often
has a plot of land rent-free from the proprietor. The social position of the Joshis is not
very good, and, though Brāhmans, they are considered to rank somewhat below the
cultivating castes, the Kurmis and Kunbis, by whose patronage they are supported.1

The Bhadris are a class of Joshis who wander about and live by begging, telling fortunes
and giving omens. They avert the evil influences of the planet Saturn and accept the gifts
offered to this end, which are always black, as black blankets, charcoal, tilli or sesamum
oil, the urad pulse,2 and iron. People born on Saturday or being otherwise connected
with the planet are especially subject to his malign influence. The Joshi ascertains who
these unfortunate persons are from their horoscopes, and neutralises the evil influence of
the planet by the acceptance of the gifts already mentioned, while he sometimes also
receives a buffalo or a cow. He computes by astrological calculations the depth at which
water will be found when a cultivator wishes to dig a well. He also practises palmistry,
classifying the whorls of the fingers into two patterns, called the Shank or conch-shell
and Chakra or discus of Vishnu. The Shank is considered to be unfortunate and the
Chakra fortunate. The lines on the balls of the toes and on the forehead are similarly
classified. When anything has been lost or stolen the Joshi can tell from the daily
nakshatra or mansion of the moon in which the loss or theft occurred whether the
property has gone to the north, south, east or west, and within what interval it is likely to
be found. The people have not nowadays much faith in his prophetic powers, and they
say, “If clouds come on Friday, and the sky is black on Saturday, then the Joshi foretells
that it will rain on Sunday.” The Joshi’s calculations are all based on the rāshis or signs
of the zodiac through which the sun passes during the year, and the nakshatras or those
which mark the monthly revolutions of the moon. These are given in all Hindu
almanacs, and most Joshis simply work from the almanac, being quite ignorant of
astronomy. Since the measurement of the sun’s apparent path on the ecliptic, and the
moon’s orbit mapped out by the constellations are of some interest, and govern the
arrangement of the Hindu calendar, it has been thought desirable to give some account of
them. And in order to make this intelligible it is desirable first to recapitulate some
elementary facts of astronomy.

2. The apparent path of the sun. The ecliptic or zodiac.

The universe may be conceived for the purpose of understanding the sun’s path among
the stars as if it were a huge ball, of which looking from the earth’s surface we see part
of the inside with the stars marked on it, as on the inside of a dome. This imaginary
inside of a ball is called the celestial sphere, and the ancients believed that it actually
existed, and also, in order to account for the varying distances of the stars, supposed that
there were several of them, one inside the other, and each with a number of stars fixed to
it. The sun and earth may be conceived as smaller solid balls suspended inside this large
one. Then looking from the surface of the earth we see the sun outlined against the inner
surface of the imaginary celestial sphere. And as the earth travels round the sun in its
orbit, the appearance to us is that the sun moves over the surface of the celestial sphere.
The following figure will make this clear.3

Fig. 1.—The Orbit of the Earth and the Zodiac.

Thus when the earth is at A in its orbit the sun will appear to be at M, and as the earth
travels from A to B the sun will appear to move from M to N on the line of the ecliptic. It
will be seen that as the earth in a year makes a complete circuit round the sun, the sun
will appear to have made a complete circuit among the stars, and have come back to its
original position. This apparent movement is annual, and has nothing to do with the
sun’s apparent diurnal course over the sky, which is caused by the earth’s daily rotation
on its axis. The sun’s annual path among the stars naturally cannot be observed during
the day. Professor Newcomb says: “But the fact of the motion will be made very clear if,
day after day, we watch some particular fixed star in the west. We shall find that it sets
earlier and earlier every day; in other words, it is getting continually nearer and nearer
the sun. More exactly, since the real direction of the star is unchanged, the sun seems to
be approaching the star.

“If we could see the stars in the daytime all round the sun, the case would be yet clearer.
We should see that if the sun and a star were together in the morning, the sun would,
during the day, gradually work past the star in an easterly direction. Between the rising
and setting it would move nearly its own diameter, relative to the star. Next morning we
should see that it had got quite away from the star, being nearly two diameters distant
from it. This motion would continue month after month. At the end of the year the sun
would have made a complete circuit relative to the star, and we should see the two once
more together. This apparent motion of the sun in one year round the celestial sphere
was noticed by the ancients, who took much trouble to map it out. They imagined a line
passing round the celestial sphere, which the sun always followed in its annual course,
and which was called the ecliptic. They noticed that the planets followed nearly the same
course as the sun among the stars. A belt extending on each side of the ecliptic, and
broad enough to contain all the known planets, as well as the sun, was called the zodiac.
It was divided into twelve signs, each marked by a constellation. The sun went through
each sign in a month, and through all twelve signs in a year. Thus arose the familiar
signs of the zodiac, which bore the same names as the constellations among which they
are situated. This is not the case at present, owing to the precession of the equinoxes.” It
was by observing the paths of the sun and moon round the celestial sphere along the
zodiac that the ancients came to be able to measure the solar and lunar months and years.

3. Inclination of the ecliptic to the equator.

As is well known, the celestial sphere is imagined to be spanned by an imaginary line

called the celestial equator, which is in the same plane as the earth’s equator, and as it
were, a vast concentric circle. The points in the celestial sphere opposite the north and
south terrestrial poles are called the north and south celestial poles, and the celestial
equator is midway between these. Owing to the special form of the earth the north
celestial pole is visible to us in the northern hemisphere, and marked very nearly by the
pole-star, its height above the horizon being equal to the latitude of the place where the
observer stands. Owing to the daily rotation of the earth the whole celestial sphere seems
to revolve daily on the axis of the north and south celestial poles, carrying the sun, moon
and stars with it. To this the apparent daily course of the sun and moon is due. Their
course seems to us oblique, as we are north of the equator.

If the earth’s axis were set vertically to the plane of its orbit round the sun, then it would
follow that the plane of the equator would pass through the centre of the sun, and that the
line drawn by the sun in its apparent revolution against the background of the celestial
sphere would be in the same plane. That is, the sun would seem to move round a circle
in the heavens in the same plane as the earth’s equator, or round the celestial equator. But
the earth’s axis is inclined at 23½° to the plane of its orbit, and therefore the apparent
path traced by the sun in the celestial sphere, which is the same path as the earth would
really follow to an observer on the surface of the sun, is inclined at 23½° to the celestial
equator. This is the ecliptic, and is really the line of the plane of the earth’s orbit
extended to cut the celestial sphere.

4. The orbits of the moon and planets.

All the planets move round the sun in orbits whose planes are slightly inclined to that of
the earth, the plane of Mercury having the greatest inclination of 6°. The plane of the
moon’s orbit round the earth is also inclined at 5° 9′ to the ecliptic. The orbits of the
moon and all the planets must necessarily intersect the plane of the earth’s orbit on the
ecliptic at two points, and these are called the nodes of the moon and each planet
respectively. In consequence of the inclination being so slight, though the course of the
moon and planets is not actually on the ecliptic, they are all so close to it that they are
included in the belt of the zodiac. Thus the moon and all the planets follow almost the
same apparent course on the zodiac or belt round the ecliptic in the changes of position
resulting from their own and the earth’s orbital movements with reference to what are
called the fixed stars.

5. The signs of the zodiac.

As the sun completes his circuit of the ecliptic or zodiac in the course of a year, it
followed that if his course could be measured and divided into periods, these periods
would form divisions of time for the year. This was what the ancients did, and it is
probable that the measurement and division of time was the primary object of the
science of astronomy, as apart from the natural curiosity to ascertain the movements of
the sun, moon and planets, when they were looked upon as divine beings controlling the
world. They divided the zodiac or the path of the sun into twelve parts, and gave to each
part the name of the principal constellation situated on, or adjacent to, that section of the
line of the ecliptic. When they had done this and observed the dates of the sun’s entry
into each sign or rāshi, as it is called in Hindi, they had divided the year into twelve
solar months. The following are the Hindu names and meanings of the signs of the
zodiac:
 1. Aries. The ram. Mesha.
2. Taurus. The bull. Vrisha.
3. Gemini. The twins. Mithuna.
4. Cancer. The crab. Karkati.
5. Leo. The lion. Sinha.
6. Virgo. The virgin. Kanya.
7. Libra. The balance. Tūla.
8. Scorpio. The scorpion. Vrischika.
9. Sagittarius. The archer. Dhanus or Chapa.
10. Capricornus. The goat. Makara (said to mean a sea-monster).
11. Aquarius. The water-bearer. Kūmbha (a water-pot).
12. Pisces. The fishes. Mina.

The signs of the zodiac were nearly the same among the Greeks, Egyptians, Persians,
Babylonians and Indians. They are supposed to have originated in Chaldea or Babylonia,
and the fact that the constellations are indicated by nearly the same symbols renders their
common origin probable. It seems likely that the existing Hindu zodiac may have been
adopted from the Greeks.

6. The Sankrānts.

The solar year begins with the entrance of the sun into Mesha or Aries.4 The day on
which the sun passes into a new sign is called Sankrānt, and is to some extent observed
as a holy day. But the Til Sankrānt or entry of the sun into Makara or Capricorn, which
falls about the 15th January, is a special festival, because it marks approximately the
commencement of the sun’s northern progress and the lengthening of the days, as
Christmas roughly does with us. On this day every Hindu who is able bathes in a sacred
river at the hour indicated by the Joshis of the sun’s entrance into the sign. Presents of til
or sesamum are given to the Joshi, owing to which the day is called Til Sankrānt. People
also sometimes give presents to each other.

7. The nakshatras or constellations of the moon’s path.

The Sankrānts do not mark the commencement of the Hindu months, which are still
lunar and are adjusted to the solar year by intercalation. It is probable that long before
they were able to measure the sun’s progress along the ecliptic the ancients had observed
that of the moon, which it was much easier to do, as she is seen among the stars at night.
Similarly there is little reason to doubt that the first division of time was the lunar
month, which can be remarked by every one. Ancient astronomers measured the
progress of the moon’s path along the ecliptic and divided it into twenty-seven sections,
each of which represented roughly a day’s march. Each section was distinguished by a
group of stars either on the ecliptic or so near it, either in the northern or southern
hemisphere, as to be occultated by the moon or capable of being in conjunction with it or
the planets. These constellations are called nakshatras. Naturally, some of these
constellations are the same as those subsequently chosen to mark the sun’s path or the
signs of the zodiac. In some cases a zodiacal constellation is divided into two
nakshatras. Like the signs, the nakshatras were held to represent animals or natural
objects. The following is a list of them with their corresponding stars, and the object
which each was supposed to represent:5

Nakshatra. Constellation. Object. Corresponding

zodiacal sign.
1. Aswini. β and γ Arietis. A horse’s head. Aries.
2. Bharani. 35, 39 and 41 Arietis. Pudendum Aries.
muliebre.
3. Krittika. Pleiades. A knife. Part of Taurus.
4. Rohini. α, γ, δ, ε, θ Tauri A wheeled Taurus.
(Aldebaran). carriage or a
temple.
5. Mrigasiras. λ, φ1, φ2, Orionis A deer’s head.
(Orion’s head).
6. Ardra. Betelgeux or α Orionis A gem.
(one of Orion’s arms).
7. Punarvasu. Gemini or Castor and A house. Gemini.
Pollux.
8. Pushya. γ, δ and θ Cancri. An arrow. Cancer.
9. Aslesha. δ, ε, η, ρ and σ Hydrae. A wheel.
10. Magha. α, γ, ε, ζ, η and μ A house. Leo.
Leonis.
11. Pūrva Phālguni. δ and θ Leonis. A couch. Leo.
12. Uttara Phālguni. β and 93 Leonis. A bed. Leo.
13. Hasta. α, β, γ, δ and ε Corvi. A hand.
 Nakshatra. Constellation. Object. Corresponding
zodiacal sign.
14. Chitra. Spica (α Virginis). A pearl. Virgo.
15. Swāti. Arcturus (α Boötis). A coral bead.
16. Visacha. α, β, γ and ι Librae. A garland. Libra.
17. Anurādha. β, δ A sacrifice or offering. Scorpio.
and π Scorpionis.
18. Jyestha. α, σ and τ Scorpionis. An earring. Scorpio.
19. Mula. ε, ζ, η, θ, ι, κ, λ, μ, υ A lion’s tail. Scorpio.
Scorpionis.
20. Pūrva Ashādha. δ and ε Sagittarii. A couch or an Sagittarius.
elephant’s tusk.
21. Uttara Ashādha. ζ and σ Sagittarii. An elephant’s tusk Sagittarius.
or the singāra nut.
22. Sravana. α, β and γ Aquilae. The footprint of
Vishnu.
23. Dhanishtha. α, β, γ and δ Delphinis. A drum.
24. Sata-bhishaj. λ Aquarii. A circular jewel or Aquarius.
a circle.
25. Pūrva α and β Pegasi. A two-faced
Bhadrapada. image.
26. Uttara γ Pegasi and α A two-faced image
Bhadrapada. Andromedae. or a couch.
27. Revati. ζ Piscium. A tabor. Pisces.

8. The revolution of the moon.

All the zodiacal constellations are thus included in the nakshatras except Capricorn, for
which Aquila and Delphinis are substituted. These, as well as Hydra, are a considerable
distance from the ecliptic, but may perhaps be nearer the moon’s path, which, as already
seen, slightly diverges from it. But this point has not been ascertained by me. The moon
completes the circuit of the heavens in its orbit round the earth in a little less than a lunar
month or 27 days 8 hours. As twenty-seven nakshatras were demarcated, it seems clear
that a nakshatra was meant to represent the distance travelled by the moon in a day.
Subsequently a twenty-eighth small nakshatra was formed called Abhijit, out of
Uttarāshādha and Sravana, and this may have been meant to represent the fractional part
of the day. The days of the lunar month have each, as a matter of fact, a nakshatra
allotted to them, which is recorded in all Hindu almanacs, and enters largely into the
Joshi’s astrological calculations. It may have been the case that prior to the naming of
the days of the week, the days of the lunar month were distinguished by the names of
their nakshatras, but this could only have been among the learned. For though there was
a nakshatra for every day of the moon’s path round the ecliptic, the same days in
successive months could not have the same nakshatras on account of what is called the
synodical revolution of the moon. The light of the moon comes from the sun, and we see
only that part of it which is illuminated by the sun. When the moon is between the earth
and the sun, the light hemisphere is invisible to us, and there is no moon. When the
moon is on the opposite side of the earth to the sun we see the whole of the illuminated
hemisphere, and it is full moon. Thus in the time between one new moon and the next,
the moon must proceed from its position between the earth and the sun to the same
position again, and to do this it has to go somewhat more than once round the ecliptic, as
is shown by the following figure.6

Fig. 2.—Revolution of the Moon round the

Earth.

9. The days of the week.

As during the moon’s circuit of the earth, the earth is also travelling on its orbit, the
moon will not be between the earth and the sun again on completion of its orbit, but will
have to traverse the further arc shown in the figure to come between the earth and the
sun. When the moon has completed the circle of the ecliptic from the position ME, its
position relative to the earth has become as NF and it has not yet come between the earth
and the sun. Hence while the moon completes the circuit of the ecliptic7 in 27 days 8
hours, the time from one new moon to another is 29 days 13 hours. Hence the
nakshatras will not fall on the same days in successive lunar months, and would not be
suitable as names for the days. It seems that, recognising this, the ancient astronomers
had to find other names. They had the lunar fortnights of 14 or 15 days from new to full
and full to new moon. Hence apparently they hit on the plan of dividing these into half
and regulating the influence which the sun, moon and planets were believed to exercise
over events in the world by allotting one day to each of them. They knew of five planets
besides the sun and moon, and by giving a day to each of them the seven-day week was
formed. The term planet signifies a wanderer, and it thus perhaps seemed suitable that
they should give their names to the days which would revolve endlessly in a cycle, as
they themselves did in the heavens. The names of the days are:

Etwār or Raviwār. Sunday. (Ravi—the sun.)

Somwār. Monday. (Soma—the moon.)
Mangalwār. Tuesday. (Mangal or Bhauma—Mars.)
Budhwār. Wednesday. (Buddha—Mercury.)
Brihaspatwār or Guru. Thursday. (Brihaspat or Guru—Jupiter.)
Shukurwār. Friday. (Shukra—Venus.)
Saniwār or Sanīchara. Saturday. (Sani—Saturn.)

The termination vāra means a day. The weekdays were similarly named in Rome and
other countries speaking Aryan languages, and they are readily recognised in French. In
English three days are named after the sun, moon and Saturn, but four, Tuesday,
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, are called after Scandinavian deities, the last three
being Woden or Odin, Thor and Freya. I do not know whether these were identified with
the planets. It is supposed that the Hindus obtained the seven-day week from the
Greeks.8

10. The lunar year.

Four seven-day weeks were within a day and a fraction of the lunar month, which was
the nearest that could be got. The first method of measuring the year would be by twelve
lunar months, which would bring it back nearly to the same period. But as the lunar
month is 29 days 13 hours, twelve months would be 354 days 12 hours, or nearly eleven
days less than the tropical solar year. Hence if the lunar year was retained the months
would move back round the year by about eleven days annually. This is what actually
happens in the Muhammadan calendar where the twelve lunar months have been
retained and the Muharram and other festivals come earlier every year by about eleven
days.

11. Intercalary months.

In order to reconcile the lunar and solar years the Hindus hit upon an ingenious device. It
was ordained that any month in which the sun did not enter a new sign of the zodiac
would not count and would be followed by another month of the same name. Thus in the
month of Chait the sun must enter the sign Mesha or Aries. If he does not enter it during
the lunar month there will be an intercalary Chait, followed by the proper month of the
same name during which the sun will enter Mesha.9 Such an intercalary month is called
Adhika. An intercalary month, obtained by having two successive lunar months of the
same name, occurs approximately once in three years, and by this means the reckoning
by twelve lunar months is adjusted to the solar year. On the other hand, the sun very
occasionally passes two Sankrānts or enters into two fresh signs during the lunar month.
This is rendered possible by the fact that the time occupied by the sun in passing through
different signs of the zodiac varies to some extent. It is said that the zodiac was divided
into twelve equal signs of 30° each or 1° for each day, as at this period it was considered
that the year was 360 days.10 Possibly in adjusting the signs to 365 odd days some
alterations may have been made in their length, or errors discovered. At any rate,
whatever may be the reason, the length of the sun’s periods in the signs, or of the solar
months, varies from 31 days 14 hours to 29 days 8 hours. Three of the months are less
than the lunar month, and hence it is possible that two Sankrānts or passages of the sun
into a fresh sign may occasionally occur in the same lunar month. When this happens,
following the same rule as before, the month to which the second Sankrānt properly
belongs, that is the one following that in which two Sankrānts occur, is called a Kshaya
or eliminated month and is omitted from the calendar. Intercalary months occur
generally in the 3rd, 5th, 8th, 11th, 14th, 16th and 18th years of a cycle of nineteen
years, or seven times in nineteen years. It is found that in each successive cycle only one
or two months are changed, so that the same month remains intercalary for several
cycles of nineteen years and then gives way generally to one of the months preceding
and rarely to the following month. Suppressed months occur at intervals varying from 19
to 141 years, and in a year when a suppressed month occurs there must always be one
intercalary month and not infrequently there are two.11

This method of adjusting the solar and lunar years, though clumsy, is so far scientific
that the solar and lunar years are made to agree without any artificial intercalation of
days. It has, however, the great disadvantages of the frequent intercalary month, and also
of the fact that the lunar months begin on different dates in the English solar calendar,
varying by nearly twenty days.

12. Superstitions about numbers.

It seems not improbable that the unlucky character of the number thirteen may have
arisen from its being the number of the intercalary month. Though the special
superstition against sitting down thirteen to a meal is, no doubt, associated particularly
with the Last Supper, the number is generally unlucky as a date and in other connections.
And this is not only the case in Europe, but the Hindus, Persians and Pārsis also consider
thirteen an unlucky number; and the Muhammadans account for a similar superstition by
saying that Muhammad was ill for the first thirteen days of the month Safar. Twelve, as
being the number of the months in the lunar and solar years, is an auspicious number;
thirteen would be one extra, and as being the intercalary month would be here this year
and missing next year. Hence it might be supposed that one of thirteen persons met
together would be gone at their next meeting like the month. Similarly, the auspicious
character of the number seven may be due to its being the total of the sun, moon and five
planets, and of the days of the week named after them. And the number three may have
been invested with mystic significance as representing the sun, moon and earth. In the
Hindu Trinity Vishnu and Siva are the sun and moon, and Brahma, who created the
earth, and has since remained quiescent, may have been the personified representative of
the earth itself.

13. The Hindu months.

The names of the Hindu months were selected from among those of the nakshatras,
every second or third being taken and the most important constellations apparently
chosen. The following statement shows the current names for the months, the nakshatras
from which they are derived, and the constellations they represent:

Month. Nakshatra. Constellation.

1. Chait. Chitra. Virgo.
2. Baisākh. Visacha. Libra.
3. Jeth. Jyestha. Scorpio.
Pūrva Ashādha.
4. Asārh. Sagittarius.
Uttara Ashādha.
5. Shrāwan. Sravana. Aquila.
Pūrva (E) Bhadrapada.
6. Bhādon. Pegasus.
Uttara (N) Bhadrapada.
7. Kunwār or Aswīn. Aswini. Aries.
8. Kārtik. Krittika. Pleiades (Part of Taurus).
9. Aghan or Mārgashīr. Mrigasiras. Orion.
10. Pūs. Pushya. Cancer.
11. Māgh. Magha. Leo.
Pūrva (E) Phālguni.
12. Phāgun. Leo.
Uttara (N) Phālguni.

Thus if the Pleiades are reckoned as part of Taurus,12 eight zodiacal signs give their
names to months as well as Orion, Pegasus and Aquila, while two months are included
in Leo. It appears that in former times the year began with Pūs or December, as the
month Mārgashīr was also called Aghan or Agrahana, or ‘That which went before,’ that
is the month before the new year. But the renewal of vegetation in the spring has
exercised a very powerful effect on the primitive mind, being marked by the Holi
festival in India, corresponding to the Carnival in Europe. The vernal equinox was thus
perhaps selected as the most important occasion and the best date for beginning the new
year, which now commences in northern India with the new moon of Chait, immediately
following the Holi festival, when the sun is in the sign of Mesha or Aries. At first the
months appear to have travelled round the year, but subsequently they were fixed by
ordaining that the month of Chait should begin with the new moon during the course of
which the sun entered the sign Aries.13 The constellation Chitra, from which the sign is
named, is nearly opposite to this in the zodiac, as shown by the above figure.14
 Fig. 3.—The Hindu Ecliptic showing the relative position of Zodiacal Signs and
Nakshatras.

Consequently, the full moon, being nearly opposite the sun on the ecliptic, would be in
the sign Chitra or near it. In southern India the months begin with the full moon, but in
northern India with the new moon; it seems possible that the months were called after
the nakshatra, of the full moon to distinguish them from the solar months which would
be called after the sign of the zodiac in which the sun was. But no authoritative
explanation seems to be available. Similarly, the nakshatras after which the other
months are named, fall nearly opposite to them at the new moon, while the full moon
would be in or near them.

14. The solar nakshatras.

The periods during which the sun passes through each nakshatra are also recorded, and
they are of course constant in date like the solar months. As there are twenty-seven
nakshatras, the average time spent by the sun in each is about 13½ days. These periods
are well known to the people as they have the advantage of not varying in date like the
lunar months, while over most of India the solar months are not used. The
commencement of the various agricultural operations is dated by the solar nakshatras,
and there are several proverbs about them in connection with the crops. The following
are some examples: “If it does not rain in Pushya and Punarvasu Nakshatras the children
of Nimār will go without food.” ‘Rain in Magha Nakshatra (end of August) is like food
given by a mother,’ because it is so beneficial. “If there is no wind in Mrigasiras
(beginning of June), and no heat in Rohini (end of May), sell your plough-cattle and go
and look for work.” ‘If it rains during Uttara (end of September) dogs will turn up their
noses at grain,’ because the harvest will be so abundant. “If it rains during Aslesha (first
half of August) the wheat-stalks will be as stout as drum-sticks” (because the land will
be well ploughed). ‘If rain falls in Chitra or Swāti Nakshatras (October) there won’t be
enough cotton for lamp-wicks.’

15. Lunar fortnights and days.

The lunar month was divided into two fortnights called paksha or wing. The period of
the waxing moon was known as sukla or sudi paksha, that is the light fortnight, and that
of the waning moon as krishna or budi paksha, that is the dark fortnight.

Each lunar month was also divided into thirty equal periods, called tithis or lunar days.
Since there are less than thirty days in the lunar month, a tithi does not correspond to an
ordinary day, but begins and ends at odd hours of the day. Nevertheless the tithis are
printed in all almanacs, and are used for the calculation of auspicious moments.15

16. Divisions of the day.

The day is divided for ordinary purposes of measuring time into eight pahars or
watches, four of the day and four of the night; and into sixty gharis or periods of twenty-
four minutes each. The pahars, however, are not of equal length. At the equinox the first
and fourth pahar of the day and night each contain eight gharis, and the two middle ones
seven gharis. In summer the first and fourth pahars of the day contain nine gharis each,
and the two middle ones eight each, while the first and fourth pahars of the night contain
seven and the two middle ones six each. Thus in summer the four day pahars contain 13
hours 36 minutes and the night ones 10 hours 24 minutes. And in winter the exact
opposite is the case, the night pahars being lengthened and the day ones shortened in
precisely the same manner. No more unsatisfactory measure of time could well be
devised. The termination of the second watch or do pahar always corresponds with
midday and midnight respectively.

The apparatus with which the hours were measured and announced consisted of a
shallow metal pan, named from its office, ghariāl, and suspended so as to be easily
struck with a wooden mallet by the ghariāli. He measured the passing of a ghari by an
empty thin brass cup or katori, perforated at the bottom, and placed on the surface of a
large vessel filled with water, where nothing could disturb it; the water came through the
small hole in the bottom of the cup and filled it, causing it to sink in the period of one
ghari. At the expiration of each ghari the ghariāl struck its number from one to nine
with a mallet on a brass plate, and at the end of each pahar he struck a gujar or eight
strokes to announce the fact, followed by one to four hollow-sounding strokes to indicate
the number of the pahar. This custom is still preserved in the method by which the
police-guards of the public offices announce the hours on a gong and subsequently strike
four, eight and twelve strokes to proclaim these hours of the day and night by our clock.
Only rich men could afford to maintain a ghariāl, as four persons were required to attend
to it during the day and four at night.16

17. The Joshi’s calculations.

The Joshi calculates auspicious17 seasons by a consideration of the sun’s zodiacal sign,
the moon’s nakshatra or daily mansion, and other rules. From the monthly zodiacal
signs and daily nakshatras in which children are born, as recorded in their horoscopes,
he calculates whether their marriage will be auspicious. Thus the zodiacal signs are
supposed to be divided among the four castes, Pisces, Cancer and Scorpio belonging to
the Brāhman; Aries, Leo and Sagittarius to the Kshatriya; Taurus, Virgo and Capricorn to
the Vaishya; and Gemini, Libra and Aquarius to the Sūdra. If the boy and girl were born
under any of the three signs of the same caste it is a happy conjunction. If the boy’s sign
was of a caste superior to the girl’s, it is suitable, but if the girl’s sign is of a superior
caste to the boy’s it is an omen that she will rule the household; and though the marriage
may take place, certain ceremonies should be performed to obviate this effect. There is
also a division of the zodiacal signs according to their nature. Thus Virgo, Libra, Gemini,
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