Pahsa  Journal of Electrical Systems

Journal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5

https://doi.org/10.1186/s43067-023-00130-0 and Information Technology

REVIEW Open Access

Financial technology decision support

systems
Alper Pahsa1*   

*Correspondence:
[email protected] Abstract
1
Havelsan Inc., Ankara, Turkey The financial technology industry was the first and most successful to combine
machine learning algorithms based on big data with artificial intelligence techniques.
The use of decision support systems (DSSs) procedures will deliver financial prod-
ucts, service channels, service methodologies, and risk management in the quickest
and most cost-efficient manners. The deep service value chain’s high-end finance
was significantly impacted by the inventive and quick development of smart arti-
ficial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques brought about by all
of the decision-making processes. This study presents digital services, includ-
ing DSS procedures utilized in financial service operations. The fundamentals of DSS
approaches, as well as AI and ML, are then demonstrated, and an example application
of a campaign management system for tax repayment rescheduling is provided.
Keywords: Fintech artificial intelligence, Fintech decision support systems, Fintech
machine learning, Digital finance management, Financial service digitalization

Introduction
Financial companies, like other organizations, are financed by transaction costs. If there
is no trust between the customer and the firm, market interactions on the production
side and the customer side are defined as in risks, because of the principal-agent com-
pany dilemma and incomplete or lack of symmetric knowledge. To solve these prob-
lems that create risk, trust must be organized around costs imposed on institutions and
consumers, such as contracting, search, and verification costs. Lending, for instance, is
known as asymmetric information ex ante, as lenders have to know the risk profile of
potential borrowers, and ex post, as they need to watch the repayment capacity of bor-
rowers. A basic characteristic of payment markets is that they follow the track of pay-
ment obligations and prove the identity of account owners or the veracity of payment
tokens. There are many parties included in the payment processing chain that must rely
on the other links that do not show fraud or liability, and customers need trustworthy
partners for lodging funds and safe processes for their delivery. Financial market invest-
ment and insurance have uncertainty around future outcomes, cross-selection, and
moral hazard. Those generate investment products based on underwriting and execu-
tion services, which provide trust in the soundness of investments and processes that
carry their ability to buy and sell. The existence of uncertainty about future artifacts,

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Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 2 of 29

for instance, means a borrower can go bankrupt, which creates more frictions related
to financial trust. In this perspective, financial service companies create many rules,
processes, and criteria to provide safe and trustworthy financial services to combat
uncertainty.
The introduction of technology to the financial sector is not a new application, but
there are a number of boundaries that show the operating environment until recently.
In the late twentieth century, the financial sector was already defined by a relatively high
degree of computerization since most financial operations were dematerialized. Only
payment services require physical cash or a check, and onboarding for new artifacts and
services often requires in-person or document-based processes. There are many ways to
reach and connect with customers routinely that require physical infrastructure, such
as branches and automated teller machines. Customers who wish to transact with par-
ties using other banks must use expensive and sometimes slow or challenging opera-
tions such as wire transfers. Even after the progress of digital payment systems and the
dematerialization of securities, connectivity remained a barrier to entry. An organiza-
tion must be licensed and part of a consortium of banks or brokerage houses to par-
ticipate in a transaction network. Moreover, data processing and storage were expensive
and required the services of bespoke mainframes and data centers. This constrains the
volume of data that could be gathered, stored, analyzed, and exchanged to improve effi-
ciency, price risk optimization, and configure products to customer needs. Most of the
technological progress in finance is in two key areas that develop current technology-
based finance [1]:

• Increased connectivity
• Low-cost computing and data storage

With the emergence of the Internet, mobile Internet, and the Internet of Things, the
information rate doubled in growth, and the finance sector accumulated a big chunk of
data in the transactions of business operations that included customer data, transaction
data, and asset liability data. According to a research analysis, the banking business pro-
duced 820 gigabytes of data for every 1 million dollars in revenue. However, financial
information is difficult to obtain, and only the most valuable data is used in that research.
Because of this perspective, the financial sector uses the deepest and most exten-
sive application of artificial intelligence, decision support systems, or machine learn-
ing techniques. Its actors include not only technology organizations but also artificial
intelligence technology services for financial organizations, as well as legacy financial
organizations that apply technology, emerging financial formats, and financial regula-
tory authorities that still exist [2].
In the financial sector, AI renovates itself by developing procedures. AI helps the fiscal
diligence to modernize and progress made in extending from credit decisions to quan-
tifiable transactions and commercial risk administration. AI hits the break-even point
of the financial industry. With the help of AI usage in the long term, great achievements
will be comprehended over the coming time. The business is going to expect an addi-
tional $1 trillion by the 2030 year-end with outdated monetary organizations cutting
23% from their budget [3–5].
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 3 of 29

Background information Fintech DSS

AI is defined as machine systems with varying degrees of autonomy that can carry out
a series of orders based on human goals, assumptions, suggestions, or judgments. More
and more “big data” analytic and alternative information sources are being used by AI
processes. According to this viewpoint, ML models that make use of such data are cre-
ated to automatically learn from experience and information, improving prediction and
performance without the need for human programming. The COVID-19 pandemic issue
accelerated the rate of digitization across many industries, and remote working is now
prevalent across many industries, particularly in the data services sector, with the excep-
tion of the manufacturing industry. According to predictions, the amount spent on AI
globally will double between 2020 and 2024, rising from $50 billion to $110 billion [6].
The focus of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly in the finance industry, is on asset
management, algorithmic trading, credit underwriting or blockchain financial services,
fraud detection, credit risk calculations, and crowd funding, all of which are made pos-
sible by the availability of information and reasonable computing and storage costs.
Financial AI applications typically enhance investor and consumer protection regula-
tions and generate financial and non-financial hazards. Due to a lack of understanding
of AI models and methodologies, the utility of AI fuels dangers that affect a financial
institution’s safety and attentiveness. An important issue when implementing AI models
is how they interact with the current financial services and internal governance stand-
ards. Even when the technology-neutral paradigm is used in policy making, it presents
a serious conundrum. Particular issues with consumer protection arise from AI. For
instance, risks of unfair, biased, or discriminatory consumer results or data management
and utility issues. These risks in the finance sector also amplify the weaknesses of the
sophisticated techniques used, the adaptation of AI-based models, and the levels of their
autonomy, as shown in Fig. 1 [6].
With the ease of commercially available advances in computer data storage, comput-
ing power, energy reliability, consumer analytic techniques, mobile communication, and
new media, including social media, emerging financial services providers are beginning
to incorporate AI technologies into their service offerings. 151 companies, including
financial technology companies and established banks, participated in a recent study

Fig. 1 Issues and risks related to the AI in Finance [6]

Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 4 of 29

poll conducted by the World Economic Forum and the Cambridge Centre for Alterna-
tive Finance. Of them, 85% established some type of AI [7].
To give readers a quick overview, Fig. 2 summarizes how AI is affecting business mod-
els and activity in the financial sector [6] based on different digital financial applications:

• The analysis of alternative data points and effective real-time behavior is the use of
AI in finance that is most frequently used:
• Enhancement of credit decisions
• Underline risks related to financial institutions and how to mitigate compliance obli-
gations
• Identify financing problems of the business in emerging markets

The second significant application of AI in emerging market financial services is in the

development of business models that automate and lower the cost of transaction pro-
cessing for a broader range of customers. It involves firms and customers with lower
incomes that gain access to financial products that are tailored to their unique needs
through AI. For instance, AI software may automate customer administration and cus-
tomer service functions in digital financial services, which lowers the cost of providing
more customers with individualized support. According to Juniper Research, the use
of chatbot apps by banks in the global economy would reduce operating costs by $7.3
billion in 2023. Another example is Bank BCP in Peru, which collaborates with Inter-
national Business Machines (IBM) Watson to improve Arturito, a personalized chatbot
that aids users in currency conversion, credit card payback, and access to round-the-
clock customer service via Facebook. Another example is Banco Bradesco of Brazil,
which collaborated with IBM Watson to create a chatbot that can connect to 62 different
products and respond to 283,000 inquiries in a month with 95% accuracy.
Personalized banking is a further application of AI in the financial services indus-
try. In recent years, “relationship banking” by financial institutions for major busi-
nesses and high-net-worth people has limited the expense of building tailored ties
with clients. By leveraging AI and big data to automatically assess consumer behavior
for straightforward savings and investment advice that is offered for free, financial

Fig. 2 Impact of the AI effects on business models and financial sector activities [6]
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 5 of 29

service providers check to utilize various services to remove the concentration of

the large number of clients from the market. These robo-advices have the potential
to increase financial inclusion if a large number of processes can be automated and
the service prices for low-income clients are reduced. For instance, robo-advisors in
developing nations like China, Brazil, and India where there is a pool of savings have
the goal of avoiding the commission-based business model of current financial service
brokers as well as the culture of financial advice acceptance from families and friends.
These sets produce insufficient savings results. Additionally, the company’s AI robo-
assistant, Arthos, analyzes customer data to offer mutual fund suggestions that are
relevant to each customer’s risk profile and monitors financial decision-making con-
cerns to generate a monthly rebalancing. The robot assistant as a chatbot in financial
organization Arturito is depicted in Brazil in Fig. 3 [7].
Machine learning algorithms that cut expenses for businesses and solve opera-
tional issues to serve more customers are other sophisticated applications of AI in
the financial services industry. Complex AI applications have a higher potential to
remove the barriers to financial inclusion. For instance, weather risk transfer con-
tracts are financial tools that shield farmers from climate difficulties by paying out
for weather disasters that have already been identified in advance. In order to deter-
mine weather “event” problems, European Space Agency WorldCover project uses
AI to assess weather satellites, weather stations, and agronomic data. Therefore, it
relies on smart contracts that can generate automatic payouts using blockchain and
AI. Farmers without bank accounts can activate their insurance coverage thanks to
the automated payout expenses made possible by nonbank payment processors like
M-Pesa (Mobile Pesa-money in Swahili language). In order to pinpoint the issues with
insurance protection in emerging markets, it will be helpful to define and identify the
limitations to the scalability of insurance solutions, such as in weather risk transfer
contracts. Approximately 160 billion dollars, or 96% of the worldwide insurance pro-
tection risks, are traded on this market.
The application of AI in the financial services industry raises unique privacy and algo-
rithmic bias issues. A vast array of dangers associated with credit reporting models were
listed by the International Committee on Credit Reporting, including data errors, the
use of data without the knowledge of customers, potential bias in algorithm design and

Fig. 3 Chat robo-assistant in Peru [7]

Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 6 of 29

decision-making, and greater susceptibility to cyber risks. These issues are resolved by
AI models that reverse data into the decision-making processes [7].
Every new cutting-edge technological goal in the market for AI-based financial ser-
vices is to support decisions. Future investments, loans, financial products, and business
operations all benefit from decision support in financial management and services. DSS
is also carried by this AI in order to support it in context. For power utilities, compa-
nies, and organizations, DSS is an information system that focuses on computer activi-
ties to assist decision-making in planning, management, and operations. The theoretical
research on decision-making for organizations conducted by the Carnegie Institute of
Technology and the technological work on interactive computer systems conducted by
the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the 1960s served as the conceptual founda-
tion for the development of DSS. Decision support began to take on significance in aca-
demia in the 1970s, and the first work that made this clear appeared in a conference and
journal at that time. Computer science, simulation technology, software programming,
cognitive science, and other scientific disciplines are all included in DSS. Structured,
unstructured, and semi-structured obstacles must all be resolved for decision-making
to take place. Techniques with explicit specifications and decision-making activities
are referred to as structured issues. Contrarily, the steps for unstructured situations
are predetermined, and the majority of the decision-making processes are monitored
simultaneously. Decision-making is stated in a semi-structured instance, but optimal
decision-making cannot be demonstrated. The aims of the DSSs differ for a wide range
of levels in organizations and businesses. In businesses or organizations, there are three
different organizational structures. Strategic planning is used to manage resource acqui-
sition, utilization, and disposition and initially entails long-term policy planning. In the
second scenario, management oversight ensures that the organization’s goal is achieved
by effectively gathering and utilizing the available resources. Operation control identifies
the actual progress at the last stage. Regardless of the project or application type they are
used in, DSSs must generally adhere to requirements [8]:

• Compatible to many decision processes and structures

• Interactive interface and friendly users
• Users can access and control
• Allow users to develop DSS freely
• Support modeling, data access and analysis
• To work in both standalone and web-based environment

A typical DSS system architecture relationship that must meet the aforementioned
requirements is shown in Fig. 4 [8].
Usually, the foundation of DSS is the structural development of knowledge-based sys-
tems. In the literature, systems that are both user-friendly and independent of domain
have also been developed. Typically, these are designs for expert systems. An Extension
Decision Support System (XDSS) architecture was the DSS structure’s original start-
ing point. Domain, data dictionary, model, report generator, and graphical knowledge
are the five components of the knowledge base. The architecture’s components are all
maintained by professionals. The problem that users have recognized and that the XDSS
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 7 of 29

Fig. 4 Typical architecture of a DSS [8]

program has presented is understood by domain knowledge. The problem can then be
divided into smaller problems so that the knowledge base units can be customized. The
final stage is when all sub-problems integrated with the XDSS program are resolved. The
XDSS architecture [8] is depicted in Fig. 5, how it connects to the database, model, and
data via model.
The flexible logic base mode is another DSS design model. This model serves as an
intentional database for a system that uses logic. It implies that the user can save a lot
of rules. However, a different extension database (EDB) is used to store the real data.
Models are applied to the DSS system in one of two ways—coded models or defined
models—in order to lighten the effort. The similar method based on model-based archi-
tectures is employed by IBM Watson. Four generations make for the evolution of a DSS
model management system. The generation of the DSS models is depicted in Fig. 6 [8].
Distributed information systems are currently widespread, as mentioned in the DSS
framework. The reason as a principle is determined by the DSS’s initial level of reali-
zation. The second level is where realization sets are chosen. At the highest level, jus-
tifications are assessed, and an estimation is produced as a result. Knowledge-based
systems will determine the outcome in a more exact manner if the reasoning is rein-
forced with additional experience data based on the subject matter of experts or con-
sultants. Risk management is the most efficient goal to manage customer requests,
shifting financial status conditions in the market, and long-term trends in the
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 8 of 29

Fig. 5 XDSS architecture[8]

financial servicing environment of today. Knowledge assistance is important for the

DSS approaches in this situation. As a paradigm, a common pattern for information
mining over a distributed network is constructed. As shown in Fig. 7 [8], the collabo-
rative DSS model is utilized here as a cutting-edge framework for DSS architecture.
Future trends in DSS architecture are based on cloud computing for database and
service sharing. Services such as computation, data access and software applications
are trend to share to the consumers. Three service models in cloud computing are
software as a service (SaaS), platform as a service (PaaS), and infrastructure as a ser-
vice (IaaS). In cloud computing for the selected service, a system for traffic control
applied agent base system is used. n-tier architecture, namely platform, application,
unified and fabric layers, is created in today’s DSS structure. Clouds in customer

Fig. 6 Model architecture generations for DSS [8]

Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 9 of 29

domain are concentrated on aim of the utility as in private cloud, public cloud, and
internal cloud. The objective of DSS is to decrease the complexity in managing the
technology in cloud systems. Implementation of DSS as an optimized way is to invest
in communication techniques to reach to a better data mining.
In DSS system process, a big amount of internal and external data is necessary.
In this respect, a robust data base is also significant in realizing a decision support
system model training. Model is a effective process to describe and create decisions
including simplification and expression practical world challenges. As the model is
independent and data is specific to that model, then the organizational structure of
the software application can be established. Financial service management is a deci-
sion-making process that has collection of data, models, methods, structural data and
analysis of them to reach a decision. Quantified decision is only possible when large
amounts of data with different information resources are connected and fuse these
data via combined system functions so they can talk with each other with the help
of the data management in the system. They can also exchange data of the financial
management decision making.

DSS, AI and ML techniques

In decision-making models for DSS information systems, big data is analyzed with the
help of pattern recognition methods as given in AI techniques, and some of the ML
methods are also used to define the pattern and bias the model nodes in the prediction
method of the process. In this respect, there are four types of AI or AI-based systems,
such as reactive machines, limited memory machines, theories of mind, and self-aware
AI. Figure 8 shows the types of AI given in the literature [9].
Machines are beneficial devices for looking at high-dimensional data and recognizing
patterns. As this is realized, accurate and precise predictions can be made by the input

Fig. 7 Collaborative pattern DSS architecture [8]

Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 10 of 29

Fig. 8 Four types of AI [9]

Fig. 9 AI subfields [9]

pattern model. There are multiple subfields of AI; it is not possible to cover all of them in
this document. In the financial services field, most AI capabilities that are used are cov-
ered. In Fig. 9, subfields of AI are given [9].
Most humans interested in tech hear the sound of ML. ML is a technique of AI
that has the capability of automatic learning and experience enhancement with-
out being programmed. It is concentrated in the generation of computer software
that can gather data and use it to learn for itself. Learning is a mechanism based on
computational statistics and based on data, observations, experience, and instruc-
tions. This is determined by analyzing data patterns and reaching logical decisions
related to the given instances that make the machines automatically learn and pro-
duce actions without human help. There are four types of ML: supervised ML, unsu-
pervised ML, semi-supervised ML, and reinforcement ML. When ML techniques
are more searched for, they can be found in deep learning (DL). DL is a segment of
the wide family and is defined in artificial neural networks, especially convolutional
neural networks. The DL algorithm is defined as the data being passed via nonlinear
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 11 of 29

Fig. 10 Comparison of ML and DL [9]

Fig. 11 Text mining technique [9]

series or nonlinear transformations before the output. Figure 10 shows the compari-
son of ML and DL at the same time with the applied techniques in their collection
[9].
AI techniques collaborate with big data with respect to all the faces of data charac-
teristics. These are data volume, data variety, data in motion, and data uncertainty.
ML and DL techniques are all used by all facets of big data, but there are many chal-
lenges when the data is collected. Data can be untrustworthy or inappropriate. In
this case, AI simply works with big data, which is structured before it is used in AI
processes to make use of DSS information systems. In structuring data, text mining
is most frequently used. Text mining is defined as text analytic, where it is used to
analyze large chunks of text data provided by computer programs that can define
topics, patterns, concepts, keywords, and other characteristics. Especially in fintech,
such as robo-advisors or credit risk management systems, text mining is heavily
used. Figure 11 shows how the text mining technique was processed [9].

An approach DSS in tax payment restructuring issues

In the financial services field, many DSS implementations of AI techniques are stated
as examples to provide cost- and time-efficient operations for increasing financial cus-
tomers. In this respect, a new application area for the financial services field is develop-
ing a campaign system based on multidimensional criteria-based DSS for tax payment
restructuring prediction systems based on adaptive learning-based AI techniques. This
system is devised as a solution where the affiliation of this study is governed client soft-
ware project of a state financial organization department.
The financial organization stated that clients who make tax payments have problems
with payment every year. In this case, tax payment restructuring regulations are pub-
lished by the government to ease the payments of the tax owners. However, it is a big
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 12 of 29

burden when the payment architecture of the current tax owner has to be restructured
based on the condition of the client, the regulation rules of the tax payment restructure,
past payment data, payment time in advance, and the classification of the tax owners
as a group. Many of the personnel of the financial organization in the country have to
calculate a restructure mechanism for the tax client and recommend the best prediction
for the tax owner for their ease of payment. The objective is to return the tax as soon as
possible as an income to the government, which is the main policy of the finance min-
istry. The problem is that since this is a human-calculated prediction, it is not known if
it is the best maximum optimal prediction for the tax owner and financial organization’s
cash balance.
In this regard, the business operation analysis is made based on the demanded require-
ments, and criteria for the decisions are tried to be determined. The criteria for the input
decision models for AI had to be specified. In this case, factor inputs for decision models
are determined:

• Tax-owner groups
• Tax owners past tax payment characteristics
• Tax payment restructure regulation and control rules
• Restructured tax payment time period

For instance, if the tax owner groups are determined as customer micro-groups,
advanced analytic and ML can make a classification for targeted segments. Figure 12
gives an user role classifications in the sale customer architecture that has the similar
type of classifications tax payment of that perspective [10].
If the contact strategies via different channels are enough to help tax owners continue
timely payment, financial organizations should also demand stronger measures, accord-
ing to the tax owners capability to pay the tax. Tax owners with a high willingness but
constrained capability to pay in the short term need to structure the tax payment via
partial-payment plans or extensions. In these examples, where the taxpayer shows both
low willingness and minimum capability to pay, financial organizations must concen-
trate on early settlement and cash balance. Advanced analytic, enabled by unstructured
internal data sources from collections contact centers and external data sources such as
old payment habits on other digital channels such as the Internet tax payment page, can
enhance the precision of determination and willingness to pay.
In financial services, strong client engagement is the basis of maximizing client
value, and leaders use advanced analytic to determine less engaged clients at risk of
attrition and capable messages for timely nudges. As the client knows, a digital ser-
vice is smart, so each tailored offer is delivered through the right channel at any time
in the day. Rich internal explanation data for existing tax owners can give permis-
sion for financial organizations to create a finely calibrated strategy for each indi-
vidual client, guided by resolved risks. AI-powered decision-making processes allow
financial organizations to generate smart, highly personalized servicing experiences
based on tax owner micro-segments. So that different channels can provide good
service and a nice experience with interactions that are fast, simple, and efficient for
tax repayments.
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 13 of 29

Fig. 12 Customer type of classification example for tax owner micro-groups [10]

In financial organization facilities, this study is established with the organization’s

information management department a development environment for processing
this tax payment restructuring campaign management DSS. Data architecture, data
pipelines, application programming interfaces, and other significant units are avail-
able for building and deploying models through a standardized Capability Maturing
Model Integration (CMMI)-based software development environment using an agile
software scrum development process that is harmonized with enterprise strategy.
It is established with a test lab environment with a semi-autonomous architecture,
prototype development, and a factory for industrial-scale production of the solution.
The aim is to generate value with a good AI technique to use in the DSS strategy.
Figure 13 shows the software development of DSS in this project based on the pro-
ject roles [10].
The final stage, from decision-making to messaging, is the ultimate domain for a
digital campaign management system. Integrated with the software units across the
full AI and analytic capability stack with the help of application program interface
(APIs), data infrastructure, and engagement channels, the system can provide nearly
instant processing of raw data to generate tailored messages via engaged communica-
tion channels. Figure 14 shows the final stage architecture for the digital architecture
[10].

Method
In this study, the government organization does not share tax payment data, so simu-
lated data is generated to assess the algorithms for DSS objectives. The method begins
with seed-generated tax payment time serial data for 20 years for a single vehicle motor
tax proprietor. The generated test data is then input into the ML algorithm to predict
future payment data based on the test data. The machine learning (ML) algorithm uti-
lized in this investigation is known as the “Prophet” algorithm. The Prophet algorithm
makes three distinct scenario predictions. The initial scenario is a 20-year forecast, the
second scenario is a 10-year forecast, and the final scenario is a 5-year forecast. The
multi-decision criteria analysis (MDCA) method is then applied to the generated data
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 14 of 29

Fig. 13 Continuous development and continuous integration environment for the project [10]

Fig. 14 Digital architecture for campaign management system [10]

to determine the best prediction based on the generated test data. As a decision analysis
for the generated test data, the “Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal
Solution (TOPSIS)” algorithm has been chosen on this occasion.
This research employs Python, a programming language based on the Anaconda
2022.10 framework. This research was conducted on a computer with an Intel i5 eighth-
generation central processing unit (CPU), 20 gigabytes of random access memory, and
the 64-bit Ubuntu 23.04 Lunar Lobster operating system. In Turkiye, motor vehicle tax
(MTV) is paid twice a year using tax data generated by this task. Twenty years’ worth
of test data are generated for a particular tax owner. This data is generated using three
distinct seed functions to produce payment logs for various dates. The government
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 15 of 29

organization has a table of criteria and rules for payment amounts for various classifi-
cations of motor vehicles. A straightforward 1300 cc engine class is selected based on
the table criteria, and 750 Turkish Lira are specified as the payment specification. Gen-
eration of tax payment initial seed functions generates Tax Value + Tax Value * 0.10 for
5, 10, and 20 years of payment series. 750 is used as the tax value in this function. In
the second seed function, a random number generator with values between 0 and 750 is
employed to generate a 5-, 10-, and 20-year payment series. A random number genera-
tor with values between tax value 900–1500 with 25 steps interval is used to generate a
5-, 10-, and 20-year payment series.
In the second step, the produced test values are logged into “csv” files to be used by the
machine learning algorithm to generate new predictions. In the next phase of the ML
algorithm, time series predictions based on 5 years, 10 years, and 20 years are generated.
The generated serials for 5 years, 10 years, and 20 years also calculate the trends, multi-
plicative terms, lower and higher multiplicative terms, yearly additive terms, lower and
higher additive terms, and y_hat prediction values.
In the final section of the method, matrices for the MDCA TOPSIS algorithm are
defined for the criteria, alternatives, and generated test data variants. In execution, the
MDCA TOPSIS algorithm employs weighted criteria for alternative decision ranks. On
the basis of this fact, manual weights are specified and factorized for the alternative
precedence levels. Then, the algorithm functions and makes the most accurate decisions
based on the weighted criteria specified accordingly.

Prophet algorithm
Prophet is a trend topic algorithm based on a local Bayesian structural time series
model. The Prophet algorithm is a prediction-based process coded in Python and R. Its
speed is high and gives a complete automated prediction that is calibrated by the data
analysis professionals. Forecasting is a widely known data science process that supports
organizations with strategic planning, goal setting, and anomaly detection. In contrast to
its importance, there are a couple of time series and analysis models with experience in
time series modeling that are relatively rare. In this perspective, a practical approach a
modular regression model with transformed parameters that could be calibrated by data
analysis with domain knowledge about the time series. Prophet is a process for predict-
ing time series data based on the additive model, where nonlinear trends are fit with a
specified period, seasonality, and holidays.
It works with time series that have good seasonal effects and several seasons of histori-
cal data. Prophet is a good tool to recover missing data, shift trends, and typically handle
outliers [11].
The Prophet algorithm was first introduced by Facebook as a simple and practical time
series prediction model. The model can be fitted very quickly but automatically fills in
the missing value without data preprocessing. Also, the model can calibrate periodicity
flexibly, which is convenient for time series with outliers. The prediction model of the
Prophet algorithm is based on four parts: trend items, cycle items, festival items, and
error items. The composition of the terms is given below [12]:
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 16 of 29

y(t) = g(t) + s(t) + h(t) + e (1)

g(t) is the trend function used for fitting the non-periodic changes in time series; s(t) is a
periodic term function that fits the periodicity of a week or a year; h(t) denotes the effect
of special days such as holidays; and e is the error term that represents the error effect
not considered.

C
g(t) = (2)
1 + e(−k(t−m))

In (2), C is the saturation value, k is the growth rate, and m is the bias parameter.
N     
 2π nt 2π nt
s(t) = an cos + bn sin (3)
P P
n=1

In this formula, t represents period and P denotes the regular period length of time
series.

h(t) = Z(t)Ki, Ki ∼ Normal(0, σ )

(4)
Z(t) = [1(t ∈ D1 ), . . . , 1(t ∈ Di ), . . . , 1(t ∈ DL )]

In Eq. (4), i represents holidays, D represents the collection of past and future holi-
days, and K represents the impact of each holiday on the forecast. The prediction of the
Prophet model is a cycle process that integrates the analyst and automation processes.
Combination increases the scope of application of the model and enhances its precision.

TOPSIS MCDA algorithm

The MCDA criteria decision process is an important decision-making device that
involves both quantitative and qualitative factors. Nowadays, several MCDA tech-
niques and processes are suggested to select the probable optimal options. TOPSIS is a
MCDA method that was developed by Ching-Lai Hwang and Yoon in 1981, with further
enhancements in 1987, and by Hwang, Lai, and Liu in 1993. TOPSIS is built on the con-
cept of the chosen alternative, which must have the shortest geometric distance from the
positive ideal solution and the longest geometric distance from the negative ideal solu-
tion. The TOPSIS method is an aggregation that compares the alternatives, normalizing
scores for each criterion and calculating the distance between each alternative and the
ideal alternative, which is defined as the best score in each criterion [13]. The weights of
the criteria belong to the TOPSIS approach and can be calculated using the ordinal pri-
ority approach and the analytic hierarchy process. A decision of TOPSIS that the criteria
are monotonically increasing and decreasing. Normalization is performed as the param-
eters or criteria are not in harmony in multi-criteria problems. The TOPSIS method is
given as follows [14].

(1) Generate an evaluation matrix consisting of m alternatives and n criteria so that the
alternatives and criteria intersect, given as xij m×n.
 

(2) The matrix xij m×n is then normalized to form the matrix
 

R = rij m×n using the normalization method

 
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 17 of 29

xij
rij =  , i = 1, 2, . . . , m j = 1, 2, . . . , n
m 2
k=1 xkj

(3) Calculation of weighted normalized decision matrix

tij = rij · wj , i = 1, 2, . . . , m j = 1, 2, . . . , n

where wj = Wj / nk=1 Wk,j j = 1, 2, ..., n so that ni−1 Wi = 1 and Wj is the original

 

weight specified as the indicator wj is the original weight given to the indicator wj ,
j = 1, 2, ..., n
(4) Determine the worst alternative ( Aw ) and the best alternative ( Ab ):

Aw = {(max(tij |i = 1, 2, ..., m)|jǫJ _), (min((tij |i = 1, 2, ..., m)|jǫJ+ )} ≡ {twj |j = 1, 2, ..., n},

Ab = {(min(tij |i = 1, 2, ..., m)|jǫJ _), (max((tij |i = 1, 2, ..., m)|jǫJ+ )} ≡ {tbj |j = 1, 2, ..., n},

where
J+ = {j = 1, 2, ..., n|j} associated with criteria that has the positive effect, and
J− = {j = 1, 2, ..., n|j} associated with the criteria that has the negative effect.
(5) Compute the L^2 distance between the target alternative i and the worst condition
Aw

 n

diw =  (tij − twj )2 , i = 1, 2, . . . , m
j=1

and the distance between the alternative i and also best condition Ab


 n

dib =  (tij − tbj )2 , i = 1, 2, . . . , m
j=1

where diw and dib are L^2 norm distances from the target alternative i to the worst and
best conditions, respectively.
Calculate the similarity to the worst condition:

Siw = diw /(diw + dib ), 0 ≤ siw ≤ 1, i = 1, 2, . . . , m.

Siw = 1 if and only if the alternative solution includes the best condition; and
Siw = 0 if and only if the alternative solution involves the worst condition
Rank the alternatives based on Siw (i = 1, 2, …, m).

Results and discussion

As mentioned in the method section, a ML method and a MDCA algorithm are used
at the same time to calculate the best predicted motor vehicle tax payment series
based on the generated test data alternatives. Generated test data for the motor vehi-
cle tax payment pattern for a tax owner for 20, 10, and 5 years of time is used in
the Prophet prediction algorithm to produce different yearly based forecasts. In the
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 18 of 29

Fig. 15 Generated test data 1 time serial line forecast graph for 20 years

Fig. 16 Trend line graph and yearly terms graphs with Prophet algorithm for 20 years prediction

forecasts, trend lines, yearly terms, multiplicative terms, and predicted values are
compared with the date values. Figure 15 displays the time series graph, Fig. 16 shows
the trend line graph, and the yearly graph tracks the generated test data. The specified
data creation function is described in the “Method” section.
Figure 17 shows the generated test data 1 time serial line forecast graph for 10 years,
and Fig. 18 specifies trend line and yearly term graphs for 10 years prediction.
Figure 19 shows generated test data 1 time serial line forecast for 5 years, and Fig. 20
illustrates the trend line graph and yearly term graphs with 5 years prediction with test
data 1.
The next generated serial tax payment data is generated with the second type of func-
tion, a seed random number generated between 0 and 750. The following graphs were
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 19 of 29

Fig. 17 Generated test data 1 time serial line forecast graph for 10 years

Fig. 18 Trend line graph and yearly terms graphs with Prophet algorithm for 10 years prediction

created for the generated test data: Fig. 21 shows a time serial graph and Fig. 22 shows a
trend line graph and a yearly term graph for prediction with test data 2.
Figure 23 shows generated test data 2 time serial graph for 10 years, and Fig. 24 shows
the trend line and yearly term graphs for 10 years with the test data 2.
Figure 25 denotes the generated time serial line with test data 2 for 5 years, and Fig. 26
shows the trend line and yearly term graphs with test data 2 for 5 years.
The next generated serial tax payment data is generated with the third type of func-
tion, a seed random number generated between 900 and 1500 range with 25 steps seed.
The following graphs were created for the generated test data: Fig. 27 shows time serial
graph, and Fig. 28 shows trend line graph and a yearly term graph.
In Fig. 29 shows time serial line forecast graph for 10 years and in Fig. 30 denotes the
trend line and yearly term graphs for 10 years are given for test data 3.
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 20 of 29

Fig. 19 Generated test data 1 time serial line forecast graph for 5 years

Fig. 20 Trend line graph and yearly terms graphs with Prophet algorithm for 5 years

In Fig. 31 time serial line forecast graph for 5 years and in Fig. 32 denotes the trend
line and yearly term graphs for 5 years are given for test data 3.
Afterward, generated forecast tax payment serial data for 20, 10, and 5 years is
given to the MDCA TOPSIS algorithm to decide which alternatively generated test
data is the best for tax payment serial for the motor vehicle tax payment for a 1300 cc
engine. The following table shows the generated analysis of tables as a result of the
TOPSIS algorithm. In this algorithm, the weights of the criteria are selected as the
trends, multiplicative terms, yearly terms, and additive terms are given to the algo-
rithm. Manual weight is selected as a coefficient in the computations based on the
presence of the criteria in the calculations. Table 1 and 2 and Fig. 33 bar charts are
generated for the MDCA TOPSIS decision of 5, 10, and 20 years for simulated data
with tax value = 750 + 750 * 0.10 seed function:
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 21 of 29

Fig. 21 Generated test data 2 time serial line forecast graph

Fig. 22 Trend line graph and yearly terms graphs, with Prophet algorithm for 20 years

Tables 3 and 4 and Fig. 34 bar chart are generated for MDCA TOPSIS decision 5,
10, and 20 years for TaxValue = 0–750 range seed function.
Tables 5 and 6 and Fig. 35 bar chart are generated for MDCA TOPSIS decision of 5,
10, and 20 years for tax value 900–1500 range with 25 steps seed function.

Conclusion
From all the results given above, it can be seen that the MDCA TOPSIS-based decision
criteria show the tax payment serial forecasts with three different seed functions simu-
lated test data for 20 years are the first choice serials to pay the tax. That means for a tax
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 22 of 29

Fig. 23 Generated test data 2 time serial line forecast graph

Fig. 24 Trend line graph and yearly terms graphs, with Prophet algorithm for 10 years

owner of a motor vehicle tax payment a person can decide to pay in 20 years so tax payer
can ensure the incursion of the money and feel safe if the tax portions are distributed
in a long time run. Both the ML type of algorithm and the MDCA algorithm show har-
mony and integration as an example of the recommended DSS system in this study.
Based on the aforementioned facts, DSS and AI techniques for big data analysis pro-
vide cost savings, risk mitigation, and increased customization. This will enable eco-
nomic expansion through improved demand integration and increased investment.
The three prospects for financial services that are most widely acknowledged are “Risk
Management, Customer/Client Targeting and Customer/Client Engagement.” This study
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 23 of 29

Fig. 25 Generated test data 2 time serial line forecast graph

Fig. 26 Trend line graph and yearly terms graphs with Prophet algorithm for 5 years

demonstrates how customer interaction and risk management in financial operations

would boost operational efficiency without a person in the loop failing with the aid of
DSS based on AI techniques.
DSS with AI has developed and expanded globally in recent years, and there is a
high degree of faith that robots can reliably handle financial processes. Most choices
will likely be made by machines in the near future without errors or fraud. With the
additional information clusters of the customers or clients all behaviors in transpor-
tation, daily life skills, health, and relatives behavior patterns, financial decisions of
tax repayment restructure predictions, credit decisions, investment decisions, fund
transfers decisions, fraud detection in customer payment patterns, and robo-advisory
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 24 of 29

Fig. 27 Generated test data 3 time serial line forecast graph

Fig. 28 Trend line graph and yearly terms graphs with Prophet algorithm for 20 years

decisions will be much more precise. Future DSS: A machine will make judgments,
complete tasks, manage time, carry out tasks, produce work instructions, safeguard
financial resources, make wise financial decisions, lower risks, complete tasks quickly,
and carry out error-free operations.
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 25 of 29

Fig. 29 Generated test data 3 time serial line forecast graph

Fig. 30 Trend line graph and yearly terms graphs with Prophet algorithm for 10 years
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 26 of 29

Fig. 31 Generated test data 3 time serial line forecast graph for 5 years

Fig. 32 Trend line graph and c) Yearly terms graphs with Prophet algorithm for 5 years

Table 1 Normalized criteria data for MDCA TOPSIS for 5, 10, and 20 years for tax value
750 + 750 * 0.10 seed function
Alternatives Trend multiplicative_terms yearly y_hat

Generated test data 1 0.433828 0.843936 0.843936 0.434196

Generated test data 2 0.532044 0.444858 0.444858 0.532118
Generated test data 3 0.727133 0.299788 0.299788 0.726859
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 27 of 29

Table 2 Normalized criteria data for MDCA TOPSIS for 5, 10, and 20 years for tax value
750 + 750 * 0.10 seed function
Alternatives Performance score Rank

Generated test data 1 0.399788 2

Generated test data 2 0.389626 3
Generated test data 3 0.600212 1

Mul Decision Criteria Based on TOPSIS Ranks for

Prophet Predicons of MTV_Tax_Value=750*0.10
seed funcon 5, 10 and 20 Years
3
Ranks in TOPSIS

0
Generated Test Data 1 Generated Test Data 2 Generated Test Data 3
Simulated Tax Payment Prophet Algorithm Predicons
Fig. 33 Rank bar chart for 5, 10, and 20 years forecast for generated test data with tax value 750 + 750 * 0.10
seed function

Table 3 Normalized criteria data for MDCA TOPSIS for 10 years

Alternatives Trend multiplicative_terms Yearly y_hat

Generated test data 1 0.432791 0.813385 0.813385 0.433322

Generated test data 2 0.531663 0.46815 0.46815 0.531894
Generated test data 3 0.72803 0.345312 0.345312 0.727544

Table 4 Normalized criteria data for MDCA TOPSIS for 5, 10, and 20 years for TaxValue = 0–750 range
seed function
Alternatives Performance score Rank

Generated test data 1 0.399386 2

Generated test data 2 0.389471 3
Generated test data 3 0.600614 1
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 28 of 29

Mul Decision Criteria Based on TOPSIS Ranks for

Prophet Predicons of Tax Value 0-750 seed
distribuon 5, 10, 20 Years
Ranks in TOPSIS 3

0
Generated Test Data 1 Generated Test Data 2 Generated Test Data 3
Simulated Tax Payment Prophet Algorithm Predicons
Fig. 34 Rank bar chart for 5, 10, and 20 years forecast for generated test data with Tax Value = 0–750 range
seed function

Table 5 Normalized criteria data for MDCA TOPSIS for 5, 10, and 20 years for tax value 900–1500
range with 25 steps seed function
Alternatives Trend multiplicative_terms Yearly y_hat

Generated test data 1 0.435874 0.830232 0.830232 0.435956

Generated test data 2 0.532813 0.458187 0.458187 0.53284
Generated test data 3 0.725344 0.317458 0.317458 0.725275

Table 6 Normalized criteria data for MDCA TOPSIS for 5, 10 and 20 years for tax value 900–1500
range with 25 steps seed function
Alternatives Performance score Rank

Generated test data 1 0.400413 2

Generated test data 2 0.390481 3
Generated test data 3 0.599587 1

Mul Decision Criteria Based on TOPSIS Ranks for

Prophet Predicons of Tax Value 900-1500 range
with 25 steps seed 5, 10 and 20 Years
3
Ranks in TOPSIS

0
Generated Test Data 1 Generated Test Data 2 Generated Test Data 3
Simulated Tax Payment Prophet Algorithm Predicons
Fig. 35 Rank bar chart for 5, 10, and 20 years forecast for generated test data with tax value 900–1500 range
with 25 steps seed function
Pahsa J ournal of Electrical Systems and Inf Technol (2024) 11:5 Page 29 of 29

Acknowledgements
I am grateful to my company for providing me with the opportunity to conduct my research at company, and for all of
the resources and support they provided.

Author contributions
This study is governed and performed by the author under the enterprise research regulations.

Funding
This study is supported by affiliation for future AI research and exploration.

Availability of data and materials

All of the data given in this study stated in the document.

Declarations
Ethics approval and consent to participate
During the study work, there is no potential financial or non-financial conflict of interest. Also with the study no informed
consent of human participants and/or animals are no used in the study and complied to the widely accepted ethical
codes of world accepted research and literature.

Consent for publication

Author consents to participate in the research and states that the research is not directly benefit for author and participa-
tion in research is all voluntary work.

Competing interests
There is no competing of interest related to this study.

Received: 17 July 2023 Accepted: 25 December 2023

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