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Qu Scheme Marks AO
4. (a) [R = no. of red beads in Aliya a ] R ~ B(18, 0.14) B1 3.3
(1)

(b)(i) P(R = 1) = 0.19403 a 0.194 B1 1.1b

(ii) P(R 4) = 1 P(R 3) = 1 [0.76184 ] M1 3.4
= 0.2381588 a 0.238 A1 1.1b
(3)
(c) Requires p = 0.14 to be constant so need a large number of beads in the
sack to ensure that removing 18 beads does not appreciably affect this B1 3.5b
probability, then it could be suitable.
(1)
(d) H 0 : p = 0.14 H1 : p 0.14 B1 2.5
[X = number of red beads in the sample] X ~ B(75, 0.14) M1 3.3
P(X 4) = 0.01506 if B(75, 0.14) seen awrt 0.02 A1 3.4
{0.02 < 0.025 so significant or reject H0 }
A1 2.2b
There is evidence that the proportion of red beads has changed
(4)
(e) p-value is 2 "0.01506..." = 0.030123... = awrt 0.03 B1ft 1.1b
(1)

(10 marks)
Notes
(a) B1 for B(18, 0.14) accept in words e.g. binomial with n = 18 and p = 0.14

(b)(i) B1 for awrt 0.194

(ii) M1 a a 4 Need 1 P( R 3) and 1 p [0 < p < 1] P(R = 3) = 0.233.. OK
A1 for awrt 0.238

(c) B1 for mention of large number of beads and need for p = 0.14 to be constant for it to be
suitable. D NOT a . . a

(d) B1 for both hypotheses correct with use of p or

M1 for selecting a suitable model: sight or correct use of B(75, 0.14)
May be implied by sight of 0.015 or better or [P(X > 4) =] 0.9849 . . 0.985
st
1 A1 for use of the correct model awrt 0.015 (accept awrt 0.02 following a correct expression)
Allow 1st A1 for awrt 0.985 only if correct comparison with 0.975 is seen.
Sight of B(75, 0.14) and P(X 4) = awrt 0.02 scores M1A1
No sight of B(75, 0.14) but sight of awrt 0.015 scores M1( )A1[Condone P(X = 4) =..]
2nd A1 (dep on M1A1) for a , a
a
If there is a statement about H0 or significance it must be compatible.
NB May see CR i.e. X 4 (mark when prob seen) and X 18 (prob = 0.01406..) Ignore upper
limit
NB for information P(X = 4) = 0.0104 a a M1A0A0 B(75, 0.14)

(e) B1ft for awrt 0.03 Allow ft of their probability in (d) provided at least 3sf used
NB an answer of 0.02 in (d) leading to 0.04 in (e) is B0
SC U CR a 0.01506 + 0.01406 = 0.029 B1 no ft
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Qu Scheme Marks AO
3 (a) Let N = the number of games Naasir wins N ~B(15, 13 ) M1 3.3
(i) P(N = 2) = 0.059946 awrt 0.0599 A1 1.1b
(ii) P(N > 5) = 1 P(N 5) = 0.38162 awrt A1 1.1b
0.382
(3)
(b) H0 : p 1
3 H1 : p 1
3
B1 2.5
Let X = the number of games Naasir wins X ~B(32, 13 ) M1 3.3
P(X 16) = 1 P(X 15) = 0.03765 ( < 0.05) A1 3.4
[Significant result so reject H0 (the null model) and conclude:]
A1 3.5a
There is e idence to s pport Naasir s claim (o.e.)
(4)
(7 marks)
Notes
(a) M1 for selecting a binomial model with correct n and p
Award for sight of B(15, 13 ) (o.e. e.g. in words) or implied by 1 correct
answer
1st A1 for awrt 0.0599 (from a calculator). Allow 0.05995
2nd A1 for awrt 0.382 (from a calculator)

(b) B1 for correctly stating both hypotheses in terms of p or

Accept p = 0.3 or any exact equivalent. H1 : p 13 is B0
M1 for selecting a suitable model to use for the test.
Award for sight of B(32, 13 ) (o.e. e.g. in words) or implied by 0.03765
Can also allow M1 for P(X 15) = 0.962 or better or P(X 14) = 0.922 or
better
1st A1 for use of the model to calculate an appropriate probability using calc.
Sight of P(X 16) and answer awrt 0.0377

ALT CR May use CR so award 1st A1 for CR of X 16 must have seen some
probabilities though: 1 of P(X 15) = 0.9623 or P(X 14) = 0.9224 or
0.9223

2nd A1 for concl sion in conte t that there is s pport for Naasir s claim
M st mention Naasir or his and claim or method (o.e.)
or e.g. probability of winning a game is 13 or has increased
Dependent on M1 and 1st A1 but can ignore hypotheses but see below
If you see P(X 16) = 0.0376 followed by a correct contextualised conclusion
then please award A0A1
SC Use of 0.3 for 13
If used 0.3 instead of 13 in (a) and score M0A0A0 can condone use of 0.3 in (b)
1st A1 ft needs P(X 16) = 0.0138
or CR of X 15 and sight of 1 of P(X 15) = 0.0327 or P(X 14) =
0.0694
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Question Scheme Marks AOs

3(a) (Discrete) uniform (distribution) B1 1.2
(1)
(b) B(28, 0.2) B1 3.3
(i) P( X 7) 1 P( X 6) [= 1 0.6784 M1 3.4
awrt 0.322 A1 1.1b
(ii) P(4 X 8) P( X 7) P( X 3) [= 0.818 0.160 M1 3.1b

awrt 0.658 A1 1.1b

(5)
(6 marks)
Notes
(a) Continuous uniform is B0
B1: for identifying correct model, B(28, 0.2)
allow B, bin or binomial
(b) may be implied by one correct answer or sight one correct probability i.e.
awrt 0.678, awrt 0.818 or awrt 0.160
B(0.2, 28) is B0 unless it is used correctly
M1: Writing or using 1 P( X 6) or 1 P(X < 7)
(i)
A1: awrt 0.322 (correct answer only scores M1A1)
M1: Writing or using P( X 7) P( X 3)
or P( X 8) P( X 4)
(ii) or P( X 4) P( X 5) P( X 6) P( X 7)
Condone P(4) as P(X = 4), etc.
A1: awrt 0.658 (correct answer only scores M1A1)
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Question Scheme Marks AOs

5(a) The alternative hypothesis should be H1 : p 0.15 B1 2.5

The calculation of the test statistic should be P(X 8) [=
B1 2.3
0.0698]
(2)
(b) These will affect the conclusion (as the null hypothesis
should not be rejected) since P(X 8) [= 0.0698] is greater B1 2.4
than 0.05
(1)
(c) P(X 8) = 0.9722 > 0.95 P(X 9) = 0.0277 < 0.05 M1 2.1

CR: {X 9} A1 1.1b
(2)
(d) awrt 0.0278 B1ft 1.1b
(1)
(6 marks)
Notes
B1: Identifying that should be > in the alternative hypothesis
B1: Identifying that P(X = 8) should be P(X 8)
(a)
Stating P(X = 8) is incorrect on its own is insufficient
Check for errors identified and corrected next to the question
(b) B1: Will affect conclusion and correct supporting reason
M1: For use of tables to find probability associated with critical value [P(X 8)
or P(X 9) with B(30, 0.15) (may be implied by either correct probability awrt
(c) 0.97 or awrt 0.03) or by the correct CR]
A1: [30 ]X 9 o.e. e.g. X > 8
A 9 CR 9
B1ft: awrt 0.0278 (allow awrt 2.78%)
(d)
or correct ft their one-tailed upper CR from B(30, 0.15) to 3s.f.
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Question Scheme Marks AOs

5(a) 1
Let C = the number of successful calls. C B 9, M1 3.3
6
P ( C 3) = 1 P ( C 2 ) = 0.1782 awrt 0.178 A1 1.1b
(2)
(b) Let X = the number of occasions when at least 3 calls are successful.
M1 1.1b
P ( X = 1) = 5 ("0.1782...") ("0.8217...")
4

= 0.4061 awrt 0.406 A1 1.1b

(2)
(c) 1 1
H0 : p = H1 : p B1 2.5
6 6
1
Let R = the number of successful calls R B 35, M1 3.3
6
P( R 11) = 1 P( R 10) = 0.02... A1 3.4
There is sufficient evidence to support that Rowan has more successful
A1 2.2b
sales calls than Afrika.
(4)
(8 marks)
Notes
5(a) M1: For selecting the right model
A1: awrt 0.178
("their(a)") ("1 their( a)")
4
(b) M1: For 5
A1: awrt 0.406
(c) B1: for correctly stating both hypotheses in terms of p or Accept p = 0.16
M1: For selecting a suitable model. May be implied by a correct probability or CR
Correct probability statement and answer of 0.02 o be e (0.02318 )
A1: (CR R 11 and either P ( R 9 ) = 0.9450 or P ( R 10 ) = 0.9768 or 1 P ( R 10 ) = 0.0232 )
Dependent on M1A1 but can ignore hypotheses. For conclusion in context supporting
A1:
Ro an belief / Rowan is a better sales person
Do not accept Rowan can reject H0

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Question Scheme Marks AOs

5(a) P(X 16) = 1 P( X 15) M1 1.1b

= 1 – 0.949077… = awrt 0.0509 A1 1.1b
(2)
(b) H0 : p 0.3 H1 : p 0.3 (Both correct in terms of p or ) B1 2.5
(1)
(c) [Y ~ B(20, 0.3)] sight of P(Y 2) = 0.0355
M1 2.1
or P(Y 9) = 0.9520
Critical region is {Y 2} or (o.e.) A1 1.1b

{Y 10} (o.e.) A1 1.1b

(3)
(d) [0.0355 + ( 1 – 0.9520)] = 0.0835 or 8.35% B1ft 1.1b
(1)
(e) (Assuming that the 20 customers represent a random sample then) 12
B1ft 3.2a
is in the CR so the manager’s suspicion is supported
(1)
(f) e.g. (e) requires the 20 customers to be a random sample or
independent and the members of the scout group may invalidate this
B1 3.5a
so binomial distribution would not be valid (and conclusion in (e) is
probably not valid)
(1)
(9 marks)

Pearson Edexcel Level 3 Advanced GCE in Mathematics – Sample Assessment Materials 79

Issue 1 – June 2017 © Pearson Education Limited 2017
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Question
Scheme Marks
Number
2(a) Only 2 outcomes Heads and Tails oe
Constant probability of spinning a Head/Tail oe
Coin is spun a fixed number of times oe
Each spin of the coin is independent oe B1 B1
(2)
(b) T B(6, 0.5)
5
1 1
P(T 5) – P(T 4) = 0.9844 – 0.8906 or 6 oe M1
2 2
3
= 0.09375 or oe awrt 0.0938 A1
32
(2)
(c) P(T = 4,5,6) = 1 – P(T M1
= 1 – 0.6563
11
= 0.3437 or awrt 0.344 A1
32
(2)
(d) P(H = 3,4,5,6) = 1 P( H 2) B1M1d
= 1 – 0.8306
347
= 0.1694 or awrt 0.169 A1
2048
(3)
Notes Total 9
(a) B1 A correct statement – does not need to be in context
B1 A second correct statement in context include coin or heads or tails(do not allow H and T )
or spins/flip oe.
6
1
(b) M1 [writing or using B(6, 0.5) and writing or using P(T 5) – P(T 4)] or [ 6 oe]
2
(c) M1 for realising they need find P(T = 4, 5 or 6) eg 1 P(T 3) or P(T 4)
writing/using B(6, 0.25) and
(d) B1 writing/using B(6, 0.75) and P(T 3)
P( H 3) oe
dep on B1
6 5
M1d dep on B1 for 1 P( H 2) 0.25 6 0.75 0.25
2 4 3 3
15 0.75 0.25 20 0.75 0.25
A1 awrt 0.169 awrt 0.169
Only accept correct use of H and T in the probability statement unless their variable is
NB
correctly defined
NB awrt 0.169 with no incorrect working gains B1M1A1
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Question
Scheme Marks
Number
3. (a) P(X 7) 0.8883 or P( X 8) 0.9644 or P(X 8) = 0.1117 or P(X 9) = 0.0356 M1
Critical Region is X 9 (o.e.) A1

(2)
(b) (1 0.9644=) 0.0356 [NB Calculator gives: 0.03557486...] B1cao
(1)
(c) Reject H0/Significant or value of p is > 0.45 B1ft

(1)
(d)(i) Conclusion would not change as H0 would still be rejected B1
(ii) Conclusion would change as H0 would not be rejected B1

(2)

[6]
Notes
(a) M1 for one of these 4 probabilities - may be implied by a correct critical region
A1 for X 9 (allow X > 8) (o.e.) e.g. [9, 12], {9, 10, 11, 12} etc Ans. only 2/2
NB Must be X 9 for A1, do not award for just seeing P( X 9)

(b) B1 for 0.0356 or better

(c) B1f ft their critical region in (a) M a e ec and H0 N c ad c ae e

J a g 9 e c ca eg not enough
Allow a restart i.e. calculating P(X 9) = 0.0356 < 0.05 so significant

If they score B0 in (c) then score B0B0 in (d)

(d) In (c) they reject H0 In (c) they accept H0
(i) B1 f N , c a ge , g f ca e c B0 whatever they say
(ii) B1 f Ye , d e ec H0 e c B1 f c a ge d reject H0 e c

CR (i) NB new CR is X 9 but can treat any incorrect mention of CR as ISW

(ii) NB new CR is X 10 but can treat any incorrect mention of CR as ISW
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Question
Scheme Marks
Number
5. (a)(i) H 0 : p = 0.35 H1 : p 0.35 B1
(ii) B(15,0.35) M1
CR X 1 X 10 (Allow any letter) A1A1
(4)
(b) 8 is not in CR M1
There is evidence that the Company’s claim is true A1ft
(2)
(c) 0.0142 + 0.0124 = 0.0266 B1
(1)
[7]
Notes
(a) (i) B1 both hypotheses correct. Must mention p (or ). Words only is B0
(ii) M1 Writing B(15,0.35) May be implied by e.g. P(X < 1) =0.0142 or P(X < 9) = 0.9876
1st A1 X < 1 (accept X < 2) Allow 0 < X < 1 but P(X < 1) is A0
2nd A1 X 10 (accept X > 9) Allow 10 < X < 15 but P(X > 10) is A0
Either correct answer will imply M1
(b) M1 for a reason that matches their CR. “Interpret” their CR of P(X > 10) as X > 10 etc
Allow calculation of P(X > 8) = 1 – 0.8868 = 0.1132 and “not sig” comment
Do not allow contradictory remarks e.g. 8 is not in CR so significant (this gets M0)
A1ft for a conclusion correct for their CR in context
Must mention “claim” or “peas” and “germinating”
NB A correct contextual claim on its own scores M1A1
(c) B1 for 0.0266 or awrt 0.0266 (calc gives 0.02662196...)
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Question
Scheme Marks
Number
2(a) List of all the customers (who eat in the restaurant) B1 (1)
(b) Customer(s) (who ate in the restaurant) B1 (1)
(c) Advantage: more/total accuracy, unbiased B1
Disadvantage: time consuming to obtain data and analyse it, expensive, difficult to B1 (2)
ensure entire population is included
(d) Let X = the number of customers who would like more choice on the menu.
H0: p = 0.3 H1: p > 0.3 B1
X~B(50,0.3) M1
P X 20 1 P X 19 or CR P X 20 = 0.9522 M1
= 1 0.9152 P X 21 = 0.0478
= 0.0848 X 21 A1
Do not reject H0/ not significant/20 is not in critical region M1
The percentage of customers who would like more choice on the menu is not more
than Bill believes.
or
There is no evidence to reject Bill s belief.
A1cso
(6)
Total (10)
Notes

(a) B1 Need the idea of list/register/database and customer(s)

Do not allow customer s opinions.
All ma be implied. Do not allow a partial list e.g. A list of 50 customers

(b) B1 customer(s)

(c) If not labelled, assume the response refers to a census.

1st B1 is for the advantage and 2nd B1 is for the disadvantage.

(d) B1 need both hypotheses with p

M1 using B(50,0.3)
M1 for 1 P X 19 or
P X 20 = 0.9522 or P X 21 = 0.0478 leading to a critical region X >k or X
A1 awrt 0.0848 or critical region X 21 or X >20
M1 a correct conclusion for their probability. May be implied by a correct contextual conclusion.
A1 a correct contextual conclusion for their hypotheses and a fully correct solution with no errors
seen. Must mention customers and choice or Bill and belief .

NB P(X=20) can score B1M1M0A0M0A0

NB normal approximation gives 0.082(457 ) and loses all A marks