One Hundred Pages for the Future Reflections of the

President of the Club of Rome

Visit the link below to download the full version of this book:

https://medipdf.com/product/one-hundred-pages-for-the-future-reflections-of-the-
president-of-the-club-of-rome/

Click Download Now

 To those who are young
in years or in spirit
— the only hope
for the future of humanity.
 Foreword
I have repeatedly been asked to write a b o o k a b o u t the
a l t e r n a t i v e s facing h u m a n k i n d . After s o m e h e s i t a t i o n , I
h a v e a g r e e d t o d o s o , for r e a s o n s t h a t I t h i n k I m u s t e x p l a i n
t o t h e r e a d e r since t h e y a r e t h e j u s t i f i c a t i o n for this b o o k .
T h e h u m a n r a c e is h u r t l i n g t o w a r d s d i s a s t e r . It is a b s o -
lutely essential t o find a w a y t o c h a n g e c o u r s e . If a b o o k
w r i t t e n w i t h t h a t g o a l is t o be effective, it m u s t h a v e i m p a c t
— it m u s t be a b o o k t o be r e a d in a w e e k e n d a n d p o n d e r e d
o v e r for a y e a r . H o w e v e r , p e o p l e h a v e very little t i m e t o
r e a d , a n d h a v e so m a n y t h i n g s t o d o t h a t t h e y d o n ' t w a n t t o
add others. Moreover, having heard many empty words,
t h e y n o l o n g e r believe in p r o m i s e s of a b e t t e r f u t u r e . T o get
people's attention, such a b o o k must be short, honest, and
clear; it m u s t p o i n t o u t the d a n g e r s t h a t lie a h e a d , b u t a t t h e
s a m e t i m e c o n v i n c e p e o p l e t h a t t h e r e a r e possibilities a n d
m e a n s of a v o i d i n g t h e m .
N o d o u b t this is a t a s k b e y o n d m y p o w e r s . N e v e r t h e l e s s ,
I w a n t e d t o offer m y c o n t r i b u t i o n , h o w e v e r m o d e s t , in
order to stimulate others to d o the same. So I have written
this b o o k . It is s h o r t . T h e r e a r e a b o u t o n e h u n d r e d p a g e s
dealing with the future, and with the present from which
t h e f u t u r e s p r i n g s ; t h e rest a r e a link t o the p a s t . It is a n
h o n e s t b o o k as well. It d e s c r i b e s t h e reality of t h e p r e s e n t
a n d t h e p o t e n t i a l of t h e f u t u r e as I see t h e m after m u c h
t h o u g h t a n d d i s c u s s i o n . I h o p e t h a t it is a l s o clear a n d c o n -
vincing e n o u g h to m a k e the reader think.
I h a v e used s i m p l e l a n g u a g e , w h i c h I u n d e r s t a n d a n d
w h i c h I h o p e c a n be u n d e r s t o o d . T o k e e p t h e b o o k f r o m
b e i n g t o o b u l k y , I h a v e n o t tried t o e x h a u s t a n y t h e m e , b u t
h a v e d e a l t w i t h q u e s t i o n s in g e n e r a l o u t l i n e . I h a v e a l s o
k e p t q u o t a t i o n s , statistics, a n d e x a m p l e s t o a m i n i m u m .
A s for t h e m a n y i m p o r t a n t q u e s t i o n s t h a t I h a v e n o t
t o u c h e d o n , s u c h as e n e r g y policy, civil v i o l e n c e a n d t e r r o r -
i s m , a n d t h e role of m u l t i n a t i o n a l e n t e r p r i s e s , I believe m y
views a r e implicit in t h e sense of the t o t a l d i s c u s s i o n . A
society t h a t , in o r d e r t o s u r v i v e , a d a p t s its policies t o t h e
scale of t h e i n d i v i d u a l h u m a n b e i n g , c a n o n l y give p r e f e r -
ence t o so-called soft e n e r g y p a t h s , especially t o s o l a r
e n e r g y ; violence will be basically foreign t o s u c h a society;
a n d while g r a n t i n g as m u c h liberty as p o s s i b l e t o p r i v a t e
e n t e r p r i s e s , w h i c h a r e t h e m a i n e c o n o m i c t o o l so far d e -
vised, society c a n n o t a l l o w t h e m t o p u r s u e interests t h a t
conflict with t h e c o m m o n g o o d . T h e i n f o r m a t i o n r e v o l u -
t i o n , w h i c h p e o p l e t a l k a b o u t so readily, s h o u l d be less a
r e v o l u t i o n of how we c o m m u n i c a t e — t h a t is, o n e of h a r d -
w a r e a n d software — t h a n of what we c o m m u n i c a t e , a n d it
is to the l a t t e r e n d t h a t t h e s e p a g e s a r e d e v o t e d .
I h a v e tried t o p o i n t o u t t h e n e g a t i v e f a c t o r s t h a t a r e the
c a u s e s of t h e p r e s e n t d e c l i n e t h a t h u m a n k i n d is suffering.
A n d , o n t h e o t h e r h a n d , I h a v e tried t o h i g h l i g h t t h o s e
g r e a t , f u n d a m e n t a l c h a n g e s in h u m a n t h o u g h t a n d b e h a -
v i o r t h a t a r e essential t o b r i n g a b o u t a n e w age of r e n a i s -
s a n c e . T h e s e c h a n g e s a r e t h e c r u x of t h e a r g u m e n t .
T h e m e s s a g e of this b o o k , in effect, is t h a t humanity can
emerge from this crisis and build almost literally the future
it desires, if it c a n m a k e intelligent use of its r e s o u r c e s ,
a b o v e all its h u m a n r e s o u r c e s . T h e d e c a d e of t h e 'eighties
will be decisive. T h e c h a n g e s t h a t a r e n e c e s s a r y a n d p o s -
sible will d e m a n d m o r e t h a n a few sacrifices, b u t these will
be s m a l l e r t h a n t h o s e t h a t h u m a n i t y will be forced t o m a k e
if it c o n t i n u e s a l o n g its p r e s e n t p a t h .
T h e s e a r e m y p e r s o n a l beliefs, n o t t h o s e of T h e C l u b of
R o m e , a n i n f o r m a l g r o u p in w h i c h e a c h m e m b e r is a s k e d t o
e x p r e s s his i d e a s freely e v e n if t h e y differ f r o m t h o s e of
o t h e r s , a n d in w h i c h n o m e m b e r m a y s p e a k in t h e n a m e of
all. T h e o p i n i o n s p r e s e n t e d h e r e a r e t h u s m y o w n b u t , if a
fair n u m b e r of m y c o l l e a g u e s a p p r o v e of t h e m , I s h o u l d be
h a p p y for this b o o k t o b e c o m e , a s h a v e m a n y o t h e r s , a
r e p o r t t o T h e C l u b of R o m e .
T h e p a n o r a m a of h u m a n k i n d t h a t I h a v e t r a c e d t o this
d r a m a t i c t h r e s h o l d in its h i s t o r y is c o n s e q u e n t l y m y o w n
r e s p o n s i b i l i t y , a s a r e all t h e e r r o r s t h a t these p a g e s m a y
c o n t a i n . It goes w i t h o u t s a y i n g , h o w e v e r , t h a t I h a v e
g a i n e d e n o r m o u s benefit f r o m m y m e m b e r s h i p in T h e C l u b
of R o m e . I a l s o h a v e d r a w n u p o n the w o r k s of m a n y o t h e r
t h i n k e r s , r e s e a r c h e r s , critics, or visionaries w h o h a v e p o n -
d e r e d t h e h u m a n c o n d i t i o n . I t h a n k t h e m with all m y h e a r t .
I h o p e t h a t s o m e o n e a m o n g t h e m m a y b e a b l e t o find, in
w h a t I h a v e w r i t t e n , a n e c h o or a c o n f i r m a t i o n of his o r h e r
i d e a s , o r the e n c o u r a g e m e n t t o c o m m i t himself o r herself
o n c e m o r e t o t h e c a u s e of h u m a n i t y .
F i n a l l y , I o w e a g r e a t d e a l t o A n n a M a r i a P i g n o c c h i for
h e r c o n s t a n t a n d intelligent c o l l a b o r a t i o n .

A u r e l i o Peccei

R o m e , J a n u a r y 1981
 Preface To The U.S.
Edition
T h i s edition is a p p e a r i n g at a m o m e n t w h e n t e n s i o n s a r e
r e a c h i n g a climax in h u m a n society. N o c o h e r e n t p l a n s o r
policies a r e in sight t o a s s u r e f o o d , e n e r g y , shelter, m e d i c a l
c a r e , e d u c a t i o n , a n d a decent life t o t h e w o r l d ' s r a p i d l y
g r o w i n g p o p u l a t i o n ; a n d even in t h e i n d u s t r i a l c o u n t r i e s
t h e c o m p l e x political, social, e c o n o m i c , security, a n d even
e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o b l e m s of o u r t i m e a r e b e c o m i n g ever
larger a n d m o r e i n t r a c t a b l e .
All p e o p l e s a n d n a t i o n s a r e r e s p o n s i b l e for this c o n f u s e d
a n d w o r s e n i n g s t a t e o f a f f a i r s . E v e r y w h e r e , decision
m a k e r s in local c o m m u n i t i e s , n a t i o n a l g o v e r n m e n t s , a n d
i n t e r n a t i o n a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s , as well as in p r i v a t e enter-
prises a n d l a b o r u n i o n s , a r e u n c e r t a i n a b o u t w h a t
measures should be adopted and unclear about the conse-
q u e n c e s of their o w n a c t i o n o r i n a c t i o n . T h e U n i t e d S t a t e s ,
t h e m o s t p o w e r f u l of all n a t i o n s , is e x p e r i m e n t i n g ' w i t h a
set of new policies, t h e results of w h i c h c a n b e j u d g e d only
over t h e years t o c o m e . F o r t h e t i m e b e i n g , t h e severe im-
p a c t of this c h a n g e o n U . S . society a n d o n o t h e r c o u n t r i e s
is j u s t b e c o m i n g a p p r e c i a b l e .
It is difficult t o assess h o w l o n g this s o m b e r p h a s e of
c o n t e m p o r a r y h i s t o r y will last, o r w h a t its o u t c o m e will b e .
T h i s b o o k tries t o s h o w t h e real n a t u r e a n d d e p t h o f t h e
c u r r e n t h u m a n crisis, a n d t h e d a n g e r s t h a t t h r e a t e n o u r
very survival as a species if t h e p r e s e n t d o w n w a r d g l o b a l
t r e n d s a r e n o t h a l t e d a n d r e v e r s e d . It stresses at t h e s a m e
t i m e t h a t such a r e d i r e c t i o n is p o s s i b l e , a n d t h a t it is within
o u r p o w e r t o steer a w a y f r o m disaster a n d c h a r t a n e w
c o u r s e for h u m a n k i n d t o w a r d m o r e w o r t h y and
" d e s i r a b l e " f u t u r e s . W e possess all t h e k n o w l e d g e a n d
m e a n s n e e d e d t o c a r r y o u t this e p o c h a l r e o r i e n t a t i o n of
h u m a n destiny, b u t we m u s t l e a r n h o w t o use t h e m in-
telligently, all p e o p l e s a n d n a t i o n s t o g e t h e r , in a spirit of
m u t u a l solidarity, t o i m p r o v e t h e c o n d i t i o n s of life o n t h e
p l a n e t for t h e benefit of o n e a n d all.
I h o p e t h a t t h e m e s s a g e of w a r n i n g a n d call for a n e w
sense o f responsibility c o n t a i n e d in t h e s e p a g e s will b e well
received b y t h e A m e r i c a n p u b l i c , w h i c h c o m m a n d s s u c h a
decisive influence over t h e ideas t h a t m o v e t h e w o r l d . If
this h a p p e n s , credit s h o u l d b e given in large p a r t t o t h e
m e t i c u l o u s a n d t h o u g h t f u l a d a p t a t i o n o f t h e original
F r e n c h text of t h e b o o k for this U . S . edition by D o n a l d R.
L e s h , a colleague t o w h o m I feel greatly i n d e b t e d for his
valued collaboration.

A.P.

N e w Y o r k , S e p t e m b e r 1981
The Future Is No Longer
What It Used To Be*

The Future in the Past

Every a g e h a s h a d its b u r d e n of m i s f o r t u n e s a n d d a n g e r s
a n d h a s n u r t u r e d its h o p e s . In p a s t c e n t u r i e s , h o w e v e r ,
c h a n g e s c a m e so slowly t h a t , e x c e p t d u r i n g p e r i o d s of
c a l a m i t i e s , life for t h e i n d i v i d u a l , t h e family, t h e t o w n , a n d
the c o u n t r y s i d e w a s u n d o u b t e d l y h a r d e r t h a n o u r s , b u t
was quite predictable. One could anticipate that the pres-
e n t a n d t h e f u t u r e w o u l d be as like as t w o d r o p s of w a t e r .
C r a f t s m e n , m e r c h a n t s , a n d p e a s a n t s were c o n s t a n t l y p r e s -
s u r e d by m o n e y - l e n d e r s , a n d t h e t a x e s d u e t o t h e p r i n c e o r
t h e c h u r c h left p e o p l e v i r t u a l l y p e n n i l e s s a n d w i t h little t o
eat. T h e y k n e w t h a t t h e i r c h i l d r e n w e r e likely t o die in
infancy; t h a t t h e r e w e r e w o l v e s a n d o t h e r wild a n i m a l s in
t h e m o u n t a i n s o r far a w a y o n t h e p l a i n s ; a n d t h a t thieves
r e g u l a r l y s w o o p e d o u t of t h e forests t o a t t a c k u n e s c o r t e d
t r a v e l l e r s . It w a s n o r m a l for w a r s a n d f a m i n e s t o r a g e f r o m
time to time.
In t h e old d a y s , e m i g r a t i o n — w h e t h e r d u e t o foreign
i n v a s i o n , o v e r p o p u l a t i o n , o r i n t e r n a l r e b e l l i o n — led t o

* Title inspired by Paul Valéry

4 O n e H u n d r e d Pages for t h e Future

t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of c o l o n i e s in n e w w o r l d s reflecting t h e
s a m e v a l u e s a n d c u s t o m s , if n o t t h e s a m e i n s t i t u t i o n s , a s
t h o s e of t h e h o m e c o u n t r y . D u r i n g t h e c e n t u r i e s of t h e
great discoveries, the valiant captains a n d daring adven-
t u r e r s w h o left t o e x p l o r e a n d c o n q u e r t h e u n k n o w n d i d n o
m o r e t h a n a d d territories to existing k i n g d o m s a n d
e m p i r e s , i m p o s i n g t h e i r faith a n d t h e i r l a w o n t h e v a n -
q u i s h e d p e o p l e s . W h e n t h e e x p l o r e r s r e t u r n e d , t h e i r spoils
of g o l d , p r e c i o u s s t o n e s , spices, a n d slaves served m e r e l y t o
e n h a n c e t h e q u a l i t y of life in t h e h o m e c o u n t r y .
T h e e v o l u t i o n of ideas a n d e v e r y d a y reality w a s a l m o s t
imperceptible; one generation succeeded a n o t h e r without
a p p r e c i a b l e c h a n g e . P e r h a p s it w a s t h e b o r e d o m of the
slow p a s s a g e of d i s m a l , h a r d d a y s a n d l o n g n i g h t s , t h e
feeling t h a t t o d a y w o u l d be n o different f r o m y e s t e r d a y ,
a n d t h a t t o m o r r o w a n d t h e d a y after w o u l d be t h e s a m e
— i n s h o r t , t h e sheer m o n o t o n y of life — t h a t p r o m p t e d t h e
need t o e s c a p e i n t o a n i m a g i n a r y w o r l d , t o believe in fairy
tales a n d fables a n d t o c r e a t e m y t h s . T h e f a n t a s t i c w o r l d of
d r a g o n s , m o n s t e r s , s e a - s e r p e n t s , w i z a r d s , fairies, a n d g o b -
lins w a s t h e p r o d i g i o u s child of this g r e y a n d u n c h a n g i n g
reality.
If t h e future w a s full of m y s t e r y , it w a s b e c a u s e it w a s
s h a p e d b y t h e t h o u g h t of t h e life b e y o n d a n d t h e u n q u e s -
t i o n e d belief t h a t Hell a n d H e a v e n t r u l y e x i s t e d . T h e f u t u r e
belonged to God. Mortals would, according to the good or
evil d e e d s of t h e i r lifetimes, e i t h e r be r e w a r d e d b y t h e L o r d
w i t h u n s u r p a s s e d bliss, o r p u n i s h e d for e t e r n i t y ; t h e s o u l
w a s all t h a t m a t t e r e d . A n d so t h e h u m a n i m a g i n a t i o n
c r e a t e d a h o s t of spirits a n d deities t o t a k e c o n t r o l o v e r
m o r t a l life. P e o p l e believed t h a t t h e f u t u r e w a s a l o n g
j o u r n e y in t h e k i n g d o m of t h e d e a d for w h i c h o n e h a d t o
p r e p a r e ; o r t h a t every i n d i v i d u a l w o u l d b e r e i n c a r n a t e d
T h e Future is N o Longer W h a t It Used T o Be 5

after d e a t h in a n e n d l e s s cycle; o r even t h a t a d i s q u i e t i n g

a n d b o u n d l e s s n o t h i n g n e s s w o u l d finally engulf e v e r y t h i n g
and everybody. M i n d s were turned toward the future m u c h
m o r e t h e n t h a n n o w , b u t d a i l y life w a s d e t a c h e d f r o m t h a t
t r a n s c e n d e n t a l d e s t i n y . A n d life o n E a r t h w e n t o n w i t h a n
almost unchanging r h y t h m a n d immutable principles,
from one century to another.

The Future in the Present

M o d e r n men a n d w o m e n have abruptly altered the

n a t u r e of t h e f u t u r e a n d b r o u g h t it d o w n t o t h e i r level.
T h r o u g h r i g o r o u s a n d infinitely p a t i e n t scientific a n a l y s i s ,
t h e y h a v e p r o b e d t h e secrets of m a t t e r a n d t h e forces of t h e
E a r t h a n d t h e U n i v e r s e . T h e y h a v e demystified t h e w o r l d
of f a n t a s y , b r o u g h t m e t a p h y s i c s u n d e r s c r u t i n y in t h e
l a b o r a t o r y , a n d p u s h e d t h e f r o n t i e r s of t h e u n k n o w n far
b a c k i n t o t h e vast infinity of c o s m i c a n d g a l a c t i c s p a c e , a n d
t h e m i n u t e infinity of s u b a t o m i c p a r t i c l e s . T h i s d o e s n o t
m e a n , h o w e v e r , t h a t h u m a n beings k n o w t h e m s e l v e s a n y
better t h a n before.
In fact, s u p r e m e l y c o n f i d e n t in its k n o w l e d g e of t h e
e n v i r o n m e n t a n d n a t u r a l p h e n o m e n a , t h e h u m a n species is
t a k i n g liberties w i t h t h e f u t u r e . P e o p l e believe t h a t , w i t h
t h e h e l p of c e r t a i n d a t a a n d basic h y p o t h e s e s , t h e y a r e n o w
in a p o s i t i o n t o u n v e i l p a r t of t h e f u t u r e , t o s k e t c h its
o u t l i n e s in so-called s c e n a r i o s , o r a t least t o p r o j e c t t r e n d s
affecting t h e a v e r a g e i n d i v i d u a l , o r a t r a d e , p r o f e s s i o n , o r
i n d u s t r y . T h e y m a k e f o r e c a s t s of a n y t h i n g a n d e v e r y t h i n g
and develop countless short- and medium-term projections
for m a n y h u m a n activities.
H a v i n g d i s c o v e r e d , h o w e v e r , t h a t t h e r e a r e m a n y risks in
6 O n e H u n d r e d Pages for t h e Future

t h e h u m a n f u t u r e o n E a r t h , p e o p l e t r y t o find m e a n s t o
c o n t r o l t h e m o r a t least t o p r o t e c t a g a i n s t t h e m in v a r i o u s
w a y s . T h e y d e v e l o p r e m e d i e s for n u m e r o u s diseases, s t o c k -
pile w h e a t , r e c o r d i n f o r m a t i o n o n e v e r y t h i n g of interest,
a t t e m p t t o forecast c l i m a t e v a r i a t i o n s , a n d c r e a t e welfare
s y s t e m s t o g u a r a n t e e m i n i m a l well-being a n d m e e t b a s i c
n e e d s in t i m e s of a d v e r s i t y a n d in old a g e .
M e a n w h i l e , in this s e a r c h for security, h u m a n beings
h a v e fallen i n t o a t r a p of their o w n u n w i t t i n g c r e a t i o n .
T h o u g h it is t r u e t h a t t h e y c a n in p a r t p r e d i c t t h e very n e a r
future a n d p r o t e c t t h e m s e l v e s a g a i n s t s o m e of its h a z a r d s ,
their p r o g r e s s in this r e g a r d often h a s a n a d v e r s e effect in
t h e l o n g t e r m . I n t o x i c a t e d b y t h e i r o w n abilities a n d i m m e -
d i a t e successes, t h e y d o n o t realize t h a t t h e y will often h a v e
t o p a y very d e a r l y in t h e future for t h e benefits of t o d a y .
U l t i m a t e l y , in t h e i r t o t a l reliance o n scientific r e a s o n i n g ,
they forget t h e i n s p i r a t i o n s of p h i l o s o p h y , ethics, a n d faith,
w h i c h a l o n e c a n give l a s t i n g h a r m o n y t o t h e i r e n d e a v o r s .
W i t h o u t s u c h s u p p o r t , a n d w i t h t o o h e a v y reliance o n t h e i r
technological expertise, people rush headlong d o w n the
p a t h s o p e n e d by t e c h n o l o g y w i t h o u t q u e s t i o n i n g w h e r e
t h e y m a y lead. T h e h u m a n f u t u r e t h u s b e c o m e s t o t a l l y
unpredictable.
F u r t h e r m o r e , as p r o g r e s s is a c h i e v e d a n d e n t e r p r i s e s
e x p a n d , h u m a n beings must constantly invent m o r e a n d
m o r e complex and sophisticated systems to m o n i t o r a n d
m a n a g e their activities, w h e t h e r in u r b a n affairs, i n d u s t r y ,
information, communications, or transportation. They
b e c o m e so e n g r o s s e d in this t a s k t h a t t h e y h a v e n o t i m e left
t o w o r r y w h e t h e r t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of these s y s t e m s m a y
d i m i n i s h o r d a m a g e their r e l a t i o n s h i p with N a t u r e , a l r e a d y
g r e a t l y i m p a i r e d a l t h o u g h essential for h u m a n survival.
W h e n N a t u r e does not respond as they wish, m e n a n d
T h e Future is N o Longer W h a t It Used T o Be 7

w o m e n of t o d a y i m a g i n e t h a t t h e y c a n t a k e its p l a c e o r even
i m p r o v e o n it b y h y b r i d i z i n g species o r m a n i p u l a t i n g
g e n e s , t h o u g h t h e y lack t h e w i s d o m a n d p a t i e n c e t h a t
N a t u r e h a s a l w a y s s h o w n in e v o l u t i o n . N o o n e c a n foresee
w h a t t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s m a y be.
M o d e r n h u m a n b e i n g s a r e so e n m e s h e d in t h e intricacies
of t h e i r v a r i o u s e l a b o r a t e devices t h a t , in a n a t t e m p t t o
m a i n t a i n c o n t r o l , t h e y t u r n t o n e w a n d ever m o r e c o m p l e x
instruments and mechanisms. They try to e n d o w c o m p u -
ters — t h e i r m o s t e x c i t i n g a c h i e v e m e n t , a l r e a d y a s s i s t i n g o r
v i r t u a l l y r e p l a c i n g h u m a n s in all d e c i s i o n s — w i t h t h e
h e u r i s t i c c a p a b i l i t i e s of a n artificial intelligence. W i t h t h e
aid of c o m p u t e r s , t h e y h o p e t o find t h e i r w a y t h r o u g h t h e
m a z e of t h e i r h a l f - n a t u r a l a n d h a l f - m e c h a n i s t i c w o r l d .
T h e y p l a c e m o r e a n d m o r e c o n f i d e n c e in m a t h e m a t i c a l
m o d e l s to s i m u l a t e t h e reality of t h e s t r a n g e n e w s y s t e m
t h e y h a v e c r e a t e d , a n d t o d i s c o v e r t h e logic of its b e h a v i o r .
It is n o t s u r p r i s i n g t h a t all t h e s e efforts h a v e n o t s u c -
c e e d e d in r e s c u i n g us f r o m t h e sea of t r o u b l e s in w h i c h we
a r e n o w f o u n d e r i n g . T h e r e a s o n is t h a t these efforts a r e
i n s p i r e d by t h e s a m e m e n t a l i t y t h a t is t h e c a u s e of t h e
p r e s e n t crisis. W e s e a r c h for p a t h s of p r o g r e s s , c o m f o r t ,
a n d welfare t o t a l l y o u t s i d e o u r s e l v e s , w i t h o u t c o n s i d e r i n g
h o w t o i m p r o v e w h a t we a r e , a n d h o w we t h i n k a n d act.
M o d e r n men and w o m e n are able to transform everything
else, b u t t h e y forget t o a d a p t t h e m s e l v e s a c c o r d i n g l y .
T h e final result is t h a t t h e f u t u r e n o w a p p e a r s m o r e
p r e c a r i o u s a n d o b s c u r e t h a n ever b e f o r e .

The End of Self-Regulating Mechanisms

T h e s e few c o m m e n t s a r e sufficient t o suggest h o w b a d l y

8 O n e H u n d r e d Pages for t h e Future

equipped we are to understand the destiny toward which

we are recklessly heading. In the past, some natural mecha-
nisms could have helped us, but now they have become
weak and uncertain, and their operation is unreliable.
The regenerative capacity of Nature is one of those
self-regulating mechanisms. In its amazing wisdom,
acquired by uninterrupted experimentation through the
ages, Nature developed self-controlling, self-adjusting, and
readjusting devices that exist to a lesser or greater degree in
all living organisms. This property, called homeostasis,
also gives ecosystems a remarkable ability to absorb, or to
reduce and reject, foreign pollutants or abnormalities. All
these characteristics nevertheless have limits, and the pres-
sures exerted by modern men and women have trans-
gressed those limits in many areas. The living world can no
longer cope with the massive injection of wastes from our
industrial civilization and the thousands of new chemical
substances that it continuously produces. Nature's regener-
ative capacity no longer can repair all the damage wrought
by humans.
Until quite recently, there were also some reliable self-
regulating mechanisms in human systems, but they have
also broken down or begun to function erratically. That is
the case, for example, with the political institutions of
democratic countries. In simpler times, their strength lay in
the periodic consultation of the electorate and the alterna-
tion of political parties following the discussion of ideas
and evaluation of various policies by the citizens. These
mechanisms are no longer able to maintain a productive
balance that has been put to the test and readjusted fre-
quently over time, which is fundamental to democracy.
Even when the mechanisms function normally, they can no
longer satisfy the demand for participation and innovation
T h e Future is N o Longer W h a t It Used T o Be 9

in o u r c o m p l e x a n d i n t e g r a t e d societies of t o d a y , c o n -
fronted as they are with problems that neither the parties
n o r the voters, n o r p e r h a p s even the experts, u n d e r s t a n d .
O u r a g e clearly d e m a n d s n e w political a n d social p r o c e s s e s
b e t t e r suited t o o u r t i m e s , b u t t h e y r e m a i n t o b e i n v e n t e d .
T h e b a l a n c e of s u p p l y a n d d e m a n d h a s suffered a s i m i l a r
fate. S c a r c i t y of a n u m b e r of r e s o u r c e s , a n a r c h y in m o n e -
t a r y s y s t e m s , g a l l o p i n g i n f l a t i o n , politics of m o n o p o l y a n d
o l i g o p o l y , a s well a s i n c r e a s i n g state i n t e r v e n t i o n a t
n a t i o n a l a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l levels h a v e t r a n s f o r m e d a n d
distorted the adjustment mechanism almost beyond recog-
n i t i o n . P r i c e s a r e often politically set o r a r e largely m a n i p u -
l a t e d a n d fixed o u t s i d e t h e m a r k e t ; t h e y a r e n o l o n g e r its
result b u t o n e of its p r i m a r y c o m p o n e n t s . O n t h e o t h e r
h a n d , buyers, brainwashed by advertising, are no longer
free d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s . N e i t h e r t h e p r o d u c e r n o r t h e
c o n s u m e r , n o r e v e n society itself c a n a n y l o n g e r t r u s t t h e
"invisible h a n d " of classical e c o n o m i c s , w h i c h t h e y
believed w o u l d g u i d e t h e m all t o w a r d a n o p t i m u m level.
I n s t e a d , t h e y often find t h e m s e l v e s k i c k e d a l o n g b y a " m y s -
terious b o o t . "
I m i g h t cite a n o t h e r e x a m p l e . It h a s a l w a y s b e e n
a s s u m e d t h a t l e s s o n s for t h e f u t u r e c o u l d be d r a w n f r o m
t h e o b s e r v a t i o n of t h e p a s t . T h e s t u d y of t h e h i s t o r i c a l
p a t t e r n of c h a n g e s in h u m a n s y s t e m s w a s t h u s t h o u g h t t o
h e l p in f o r e c a s t i n g f u t u r e t r e n d s . T h e r e is a n i n t e r e s t i n g
a p p l i c a t i o n in t h e field of e c o n o m i c s , w h i c h , t o b e s u r e , is
a l w a y s a c c o r d e d t h e p l a c e of h o n o r . A n a l y s i s of t h e h i s t o r i -
cal f l u c t u a t i o n s of e c o n o m i c p h e n o m e n a s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e y
a r e g o v e r n e d b y t h r e e d i s t i n c t k i n d s of cycles: t h e first is t h e
n o r m a l s h o r t - t e r m e c o n o m i c o r b u s i n e s s cycle ( f r o m 3 t o 7
y e a r s ) ; t h e s e c o n d , k n o w n a s t h e K u z n e t s cycle, is m e d i u m -
t e r m ( f r o m 15 t o 25 y e a r s ) ; t h e t h i r d is very l o n g - t e r m ( f r o m
10 O n e H u n d r e d Pages for t h e Future

45 t o 60 years) a n d is called t h e K o n d r a t i e f f cycle. A m o n g

t h e i n n u m e r a b l e c u r r e n t e c o n o m i c f o r e c a s t s , m a n y rely o n
such cyclical r e s e a r c h .
I d o n o t d e n y t h a t t h e a n a l y s i s of t h e p a s t m a y shed s o m e
light o n t h e origin of c e r t a i n p h e n o m e n a a n d o n t h e r e a s o n s
for t h e i r v a r i a t i o n s , a n d I r e c o g n i z e t h a t t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n
of cycles m a y be a useful t o o l for this a n a l y s i s . T h e e x t r a p o -
l a t i o n of t r e n d s f r o m t h e p a s t i n t o t h e future m a y , h o w e v e r ,
easily mislead us. W e live in a p e r i o d of f u n d a m e n t a l
c h a n g e s t h a t c o r r e s p o n d t o b r e a k s in p a s t p a t t e r n s , d i s c o n -
tinuities, even reversals of t r e n d s . T o rely t o o heavily o n t h e
p a s t for o u r g u i d a n c e c o u l d m e a n t h a t we v e n t u r e i n t o t h e
future l o o k i n g b a c k w a r d s .
T h e p h a s e of h i s t o r y b e f o r e us is c o m p l e t e l y n e w . T h e
lessons of the p a s t a r e n o l o n g e r fully a p p l i c a b l e , a n d t h e
mechanisms that once automatically absorbed and cor-
rected o u r m i s t a k e s h a v e ceased t o f u n c t i o n . T o g u i d e us,
we need a r a d i c a l c h a n g e in o u r a t t i t u d e s , a n d a n effort in
i n n o v a t i v e i m a g i n a t i o n t h a t is b o t h c o u r a g e o u s a n d
realistic.

Facing the Future Alone

I n d e e d , we m u s t c h a n g e b e c a u s e t h e f u t u r e is n o l o n g e r
w h a t it used t o b e . T h e difference lies in t h e fact t h a t its
r e l a t i o n t o t h e p r e s e n t is essentially n e w . T h e future will n o
l o n g e r b e a m e r e continuation of t h e p r e s e n t , b u t a direct
consequence of it. O u r f o r e f a t h e r s , with s o m e r e a s o n ,
c o u l d c o n s i d e r t h e f u t u r e as a n e x t e n s i o n of t h e i r o w n t i m e ,
in t h e s a m e w a y t h a t their p r e s e n t w a s d o m i n a t e d by t h e
s a m e k i n d of adversities a n d t h e s a m e r a n g e of a l t e r n a t i v e s
t h a t h a d c h a r a c t e r i z e d t h e i r p a s t . N o w t h e differences a r e
T h e Future is N o Longer W h a t It Used T o Be 11

p r o f o u n d . T h e c o n t r a s t b e t w e e n even t h e m o s t r e c e n t p a s t
a n d t h e p r e s e n t is o b v i o u s ; a n d even t h o u g h t h e p r e s e n t is
necessarily t h e s t a r t i n g p o i n t for t h e f u t u r e , t h e g a p
b e t w e e n t h e t w o p r o m i s e s t o g r o w e v e n w i d e r . T h i s is
because the h u m a n being has begun to play a determining
role — n o t o n l y t h a t of p r o t a g o n i s t , b u t a l s o of a u t h o r of
his o w n h i s t o r y .
T h e f u t u r e is clearly n o t p r e d e t e r m i n e d , as if i n s c r i b e d in
a g r e a t , secret b o o k for t h e p r o p h e t s o r s c h o l a r s a m o n g us
t o d e c i p h e r . N o r is t h e f u t u r e t h e a c c i d e n t a l p r o d u c t of
u n k n o w n a n d h i d d e n forces. A d m i t t e d l y , e x t r a o r d i n a r y
e v e n t s s u c h as t h e a p p e a r a n c e of a c o m e t o r t h e v a g a r i e s of
s u n s p o t s m a y c h a n g e t h e c o n d i t i o n s of life o n E a r t h . B u t
the stakes are t o o high t o a l l o w this level of speculation t o
distract us. A n d we need only a little c o m m o n sense to reject
the view t h a t the future c a n be d e t e r m i n e d by benign or
malevolent s u p e r n a t u r a l p o w e r s . O u r k n o w l e d g e of t h e his-
t o r y of the planet a n d of h u m a n beings leads us to search for
the logic of the future in a m o r e objective a n d realistic way.
T h e f u t u r e w h i c h c o n c e r n s u s , a n d w h i c h this a n d s u c -
c e e d i n g g e n e r a t i o n s m u s t d e p e n d o n , or fear, will be a
product of human choice. M o d e r n m e n a n d w o m e n h a v e
n o w b e c o m e t h e p r i n c i p a l a g e n t s of c h a n g e in this s m a l l
c o r n e r of t h e U n i v e r s e u n d e r t h e i r c o n t r o l . In t h e s e c i r c u m -
s t a n c e s , t h e f u t u r e will essentially d e p e n d o n t h e m , o r
r a t h e r o n t h e d a i l y activities a n d b e h a v i o r of t h e e n t i r e
w o r l d p o p u l a t i o n . If it is t h e s u m t o t a l of t h e i r d i s o r d e r s ,
s t r u g g l e s , a n d p e t t i n e s s , t h e f u t u r e will be m i s e r a b l e a n d
t h e w o r l d u n b e a r a b l e . If, h o w e v e r , it is a r e s p o n s i b l e c r e a -
t i o n , t h e result of a c o m m i t t e d effort t o i m p r o v e u p o n t h e
p r e s e n t , t h e f u t u r e will t h e n b e w o r t h y of t h e h u m a n q u a l -
ity, a n d t h e w o r l d a p l a c e w h e r e p e o p l e c a n live, w o r k , a n d
love in p e a c e for g e n e r a t i o n s t o c o m e .