SUPPLY CHAIN L

WERK ZITTING 2
3

SUPPLY CHAIN LOGISTICS: PRACTICE SESSION &

3

Guidelines for rounding:

o - Seasonal indices and regression coefficient 𝑏: 4 digits
- All other values: 2 digits

1) Exercise 15 in chapter 18
OPGAVE

·ï¿
-
- 2) Exercise 26 in chapter 18

3) Suppose you have the information on -

the table
-2below on the results of a forecasting
Ety
I

I t Y 12 . = +... + 90

in
method for the past six months. Evaluate this forecasting method by using 1) the 297
=

i overall MAD, 2) the overall MAPE and 3) the tracking signal =

*
36
over1 the months.
It = 1 +... +

°
#æœæÎĞïÑ@ïĞ
e
45 g
Month Actual demand Forecast
48 16 = 12 +... + 15
= 13 , 5
January 100 80 80 25 6
6
-

=AGU+St6
30 36
February 94 84
&
-

March 106 86
April 80 90
May 68 88
June 94 84

4) Exercise 8 in chapter 19

·
Oef .
1 E Wi = 1

* A H
a
f At-
15
12 t O 312 +
Wi 0 1 1N
12 Az-r
Weighted moving average
= = + ,
.

·
·

Ee
1xE
= 15

~
Monuta Regressielijn invullen

Average of
n
7 bij
t 7 D
Juni
⑳
-
=
A
-
d =
is maand 7 &

15 +313 +
b
12 14 ⑳0 ,67, 7214
e
,
,, 12 Fy =
.
7 + 10 , 8001

3 1999 E 16 ,

D
= 16 ,
28315
13 + 15313)
13 , 4
0 73 , 5
=
,

·
&
ba .
6 3,5 13
Ise
297
&

&
Y bt
-

-
·
⑪ - .

· = a +
I

d ·
b =
Ity
- nE . y 91 -

6 . 12 , 25
= 0
,
7744
2 t -
nF2
7714 3 ,5 10 , 8001
D a = 13 , 5 -
0 ,
=

bE
- .

a
j
·

⑳
= -

>
-

Y = 0, 7774t + 10 , 80016999
 OPGAVE

·
om . er 5

·
ty
1

3205

449076076
S
215

240

160

-
m
6195117036
t

215

480

6159
.

800
Y t

25
2

i
FIT

7 150105048

· I
=
b E
Ety -

M .
. 8740105064 ⑭
Et - El
Regression line M .

DE 4,5
· t = 8 -
=
a = J -
E .
b
· [ + 1 =
215+ ...
* 1050 = 6210

· It: 204 DE
=
- =
14 , 5) = 20 ,
25

· 5 = 186 ,
875

· b = 6210 -
8 . 4, 5 .
186 , 8 + 5
-2144 4
= -
12 ,
3214t + 242 ,
32
204 - 8 .
20 ,
25

· a = 186 , 875 -

4 ,5 .
-
12 , 3214 = 242 ,
32

vabel
I

in
sales
Seasonae index >
-
Actual
Y 3214t 32 Ratio =

FITS
forecast
·
12 + 242 ·
Seasonal Index
· =
FIT
-
=
, ,
:

FIT RATIO

e
Seasonal index
O
FIT FITS

-
i

-
168
316 I 2484
3916
I
222594 96048164 O6 1934 , -
1 0, 9101

*
-
, ,

2227666776228 - , 10-232 , 5698 1 1303

⑭
,

3 20 7395, 42 89983340 ,
O 8912
3 0. 9797
,
4 -93 % 0,364056 8 , 9843353 , 2126
4
o
·
do
-
5 713 927
180303
-

, ,
0 , 8854

1 , 1580
6168 3946
,

0
9671
7 156 , 0702 ,

-
143 7488 0 . 973
& ,

g 13 1 4274 - FITS
,
0
= 118 , 61
-

10 119 106 FITS10 134 , 63-

- =
,

11 106 , 7846
-Is - 11 104 , 62 =

⑭
12
- 94 , 4632
FITS
12 905 496 =
,
 Per
T P maand
.

Fe 1Az-Fzl RSFE MAD

Az -

At
1 20 0 2 20 20

(
,
t = 30
-

⑳
Lomo-e
0 , 1064
I
2 10
= 50

- 1887
⑤
-
3 RO 0 6 , 6667
absol W
.
,

Y
4 125
+ 10 0 O 15

↑
,

& do
+ 20 16
5 0 , 2947

6 10 64 15

top ! nien de je min

Oef .
3

1 Mad = E (A +
-
Fel =
120 ... no 1=
8 = 15

2 Mape =
Z
E1(11) 100 -
0 , 2 +... + 0 , 1064
< 100 =
17 ,
01 %1
n 6
DRStE
~
3 Ts =
Running Sum of forecast ERRORS

MAD

·
Tsn =
20
= 1
·

TS5 =
20 = 1 , 25
T
1
TS2 9 2 To
·
·
=
=
2
10
=
=

15

·
TSs =
30 = 2, 999923
16 , 6667

· TS4 = 4 = 2 , 6667
15
 OPGAVE

zie
oef .

4
volgende pagina
DATA
February March April May

Forecast 80000 64 000 100000 40000

Beginning inventory O O O -
16000

Production required 80 000 64 000 100000 56 000

Production hours required 20 000 16 000 25000 14 000

Regular workforce 125 100 100 100

Regular production 80000 64000 64000 64 000

-
Overtime hours 5000 O

Overtime production 20000 O

Total production 80 000 64000 & 4000 64 000

--
Ending iventory - 8000

Backorders 16000 -

Workers hired 25 O

Workers laid off O 25

COSTS
Regular time 200 000 160 000 160 000 160000

Overtime O O 75000 O

Inventory O O O 80 000

Backorders O O 320 000 O

Hiring 1250 O O O

Layoff O
1750 O O

TOTAL 201250 161750 555 000 240 000

Total costs : $1158000