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Reflection_STA_457

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jiwei Zhang
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21 views1 page

Reflection_STA_457

Uploaded by

jiwei Zhang
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Personal Reflection for STA457 Final Project

In this report, all of our group members have tried their best to
fulfill their parts, and finally we work together to polish the whole
project to make it more coherent and well-structured.
All of us have come up with a model and we finally picked one
model that works best among the three to predict the cocoa price
in the furture. To specify, Ruiyang Pang build the ARMA(4,0) +
GARCH(1,1) model, Junfei Xu build the ARIMA(1, 1, 2) model, and
JIAZHI ZHOU(myself) build the ETS(MMN) model.
Beyond the model development, we are responsible for different
parts of the project. Ruiyang is responsible for Forecast,
Introduction and Literature review. Junfei is responsible for Data
analysis and Conclusion. JIAZHI is responsible for Methodology
and Conclusion as well.
Throughout the project, I gained several important insights that I
would like to highlight.
Firstly, effective communication among group members is
important. The more we talk to each other, the more we learn
from each other. With communicating to your groupmates, you
get to know something that they know but you don’t know, and
the new knowledge you gained by exchanging information from
your teammates, will help your come up with better ideas latter.
Secondly, remember to start early. If you start early, you can get
time to polish your work and improve the structure and logic of
your project. Otherwise, rushing near the deadline increases the
risk of missing details, which could be noticed if you have enough
time.
Overall, the project is a valuable learning experience.

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