DYAL SINGH COLLEGE

UNIVERSITY OF DELHI
SESSION: 2024-25

RESEARCH PAPER
TOPIC: AIR POLLUTION IN DELHI

SUBMITTED BY: ADARSH KR. GUPTA - 22/21143

ADARSH MISHRA - 22/21094
HIMANSHU - 22/21024
YASHWANT - 22/21281

PRESENTED TO:
PROF. VANDANA TULASYAN
 ABSTRACT
Delhi, India's capital, faces a persistent air pollution crisis, particularly during the winter
months. This issue stems from a combination of factors, including vehicular emissions,
industrial activities, construction dust, biomass burning, and meteorological conditions.
The health implications are profound, with a significant portion of the population
experiencing respiratory ailments. Efforts to mitigate pollution, such as the implementation
of the Delhi Electric Vehicle Policy and the installation of smog towers, have shown
promise but also face challenges. This paper delves into the multifaceted nature of Delhi's
air pollution, examining its sources, health impacts, and the effectiveness of current
interventions.

1. Introduction

Delhi's air quality has been a subject of concern for decades. The city's rapid urbanization,
coupled with its geographical location, exacerbates pollution levels, especially during the
winter when atmospheric conditions trap pollutants close to the ground.

2. Sources of Air Pollution

 Vehicular Emissions: Delhi's burgeoning population has led to an increase in

vehicles, contributing significantly to air pollution.
 Industrial Activities: Industries, especially those using fossil fuels, emit pollutants
that degrade air quality.
 Construction Dust: Ongoing construction projects release particulate matter into the air.
 Biomass Burning: The burning of crop residues in neighboring states,
particularly Punjab and Haryana, contributes to Delhi's smog.
 Meteorological Conditions: During winters, temperature inversions trap pollutants
near the surface, worsening air quality.

3. Health Impacts

 A survey conducted in November 2024 revealed that 75% of families in Delhi-NCR

reported at least one member suffering from respiratory ailments due to poor air
quality. Symptoms included persistent coughs, asthma, and headache. 58% of
families experience headaches, 50% face breathing issues . 27% of families use air
purifiers.
4. Policy Interventions

 Delhi Electric Vehicle Policy: Launched in August 2020, this policy aims for 25% of
new vehicle registrations to be electric by 2024. While there has been a 40%
increase in EV sales, challenges like high costs and inadequate charging
infrastructure persist.

 Smog Towers: Delhi has installed smog towers in areas like Connaught Place and
Anand Vihar to purify the air. However, their effectiveness remains under scrutiny

 Winter Action Plan: Between 2016 and 2022, the number of "severe" air pollution
days decreased from 26 to 6, attributed to measures like banning older vehicles,
promoting EVs, and enforcing construction regulations.

5. Challenges and Recommendations

Despite interventions, challenges remain. The continuous influx of pollutants from

neighboring states, inadequate infrastructure for EVs, and limited public awareness hinder
progress. Recommendations include enhancing inter-state collaboration, investing in green
infrastructure, and conducting public awareness campaigns.

6. Conclusion

Delhi's air pollution is a complex issue requiring a multifaceted approach. While current
policies have shown some success, sustained efforts, technological innovations, and public
participation are crucial for long-term improvement.
 INTRODUCTION

Defining Air Pollution

Air pollution refers to the presence of substances in the atmosphere—primarily the outdoor air—
that are harmful to human health, ecosystems, and the climate. According to the World Health
Organization (WHO), air pollution is defined as “contamination of the indoor or outdoor
environment by any chemical, physical or biological agent that modifies the natural
characteristics of the atmosphere.” These pollutants include particulate matter (PM), nitrogen
oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), ozone (O₃), carbon monoxide (CO), and volatile organic
compounds (VOCs), among others.

Historical Background of Air Pollution in Delhi

The issue of air pollution in Delhi, the capital of India, is not a new phenomenon but one that has
steadily worsened over decades. The genesis of Delhi's air pollution crisis can be traced back to
the late 20th century, coinciding with rapid urbanization, industrial expansion, and a sharp
increase in vehicular traffic.

1980s–1990s: The Emergence of the Problem

During the 1980s, Delhi underwent significant demographic and infrastructural transformations.
Population surged, slums proliferated, and vehicular numbers grew exponentially. Industrial
units—many operating without proper emission controls—flourished within city limits. The lack
of an integrated urban planning policy led to congestion and poor waste management, further
aggravating pollution levels.

By the 1990s, Delhi was already identified among the most polluted cities globally. A major
contributor was the unchecked use of diesel-powered public and private transport, along with a
growing number of two-stroke engine auto-rickshaws. In 1998, the Supreme Court of India
intervened, ordering the conversion of public transport to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), a
landmark decision that temporarily mitigated the crisis.

2000s–2010s: A Growing Challenge

The early 2000s brought temporary improvements in air quality due to the introduction of CNG
and stricter industrial regulations. However, these gains were short-lived. With the economy
opening up, car ownership expanded, and urban sprawl accelerated. The construction boom,
accompanied by rampant deforestation and increased use of diesel generators, added to the
particulate load in the air.
By the 2010s, Delhi's pollution levels began to reach hazardous levels, especially in the winter
months. Stubble burning in neighboring states like Punjab and Haryana emerged as a seasonal
contributor, while construction dust, vehicular emissions, and industrial pollution continued to be
year-round problems.

Present Scenario: A Public Health Emergency

Today, Delhi is often ranked among the most polluted capitals in the world. According to data
from the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) and international organizations such as IQAir,
the city's Air Quality Index (AQI) regularly exceeds safe limits, especially in the months of
November to January. The presence of fine particulate matter—especially PM2.5 and PM10—
poses severe health risks, including respiratory illnesses, cardiovascular diseases, and
developmental issues in children.

The problem of air pollution in Delhi is now recognized as a complex, multi-sectoral issue
requiring coordinated policy, technological innovation, and public participation. Despite various
governmental efforts such as the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP), odd-even traffic
schemes, and bans on firecrackers, long-term and sustainable improvement remains elusive.

Primary Contributors of Air Pollution in Delhi

Air pollution in Delhi is a result of complex, interrelated sources, both anthropogenic and
natural. The city’s geography, climatic conditions, and high population density further
exacerbate the pollution levels. The primary contributors to air pollution in Delhi can be
categorized as follows:

1. Vehicular Emissions

Vehicular traffic is one of the largest contributors to air pollution in Delhi, accounting for an
estimated 20–30% of the city's total air pollution load. With over 12 million registered vehicles
(as of 2024), including private cars, two-wheelers, buses, and commercial trucks, Delhi's roads
are choked with traffic. Many of these vehicles run on diesel, a known pollutant that emits high
levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10).

The situation is worsened by:

 Old and poorly maintained vehicles, especially diesel-run trucks.

 Traffic congestion, which increases idling time and exhaust emissions.
  Use of non-Bharat Stage-compliant fuels and engines in some parts of the National
Capital Region (NCR).

Despite the shift to CNG for public transport and the implementation of BS-VI fuel norms, the
sheer volume of vehicles on the roads has diluted the benefits.

2. Industrial and Commercial Activities

Industrial operations in and around Delhi release large amounts of pollutants into the air. Small-
scale industries, many of which operate without proper emission controls, burn coal, biomass,
and low-grade diesel, contributing significantly to the city’s air quality degradation.

Notable sources include:

 Brick kilns, especially during winter months.

 Metal foundries and dyeing units in areas like Wazirpur and Okhla.
 Diesel generators, used extensively during power outages, emit a toxic mix of pollutants.

Though several industrial units have been relocated to the outskirts or shut down by court orders,
illegal and unregulated operations continue to emit harmful substances.

3. Construction and Demolition Activities

Delhi’s ever-expanding urban landscape has led to constant construction activity. The dust from
construction sites—including the use of concrete mixers, cutting machines, and movement of
trucks—adds significantly to the PM10 levels in the atmosphere.

Major contributors include:

 Large infrastructure projects, such as metro expansion and flyovers.

 Residential and commercial real estate development.
 Lack of dust suppression measures, such as water sprinkling or dust nets.

Even though regulations exist under the Construction and Demolition Waste Management Rules
(2016), enforcement remains inconsistent.
5. Agricultural Stubble Burning

Perhaps the most infamous and seasonal contributor, stubble burning in neighboring states—
particularly Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh—leads to sharp spikes in pollution
levels in Delhi during the post-harvest months of October and November.

Farmers set fire to leftover straw from rice crops due to the short turnaround time before sowing
wheat. This practice releases massive plumes of smoke that drift into Delhi, often aided by
westerly winds.

In some years, stubble burning accounts for as much as 30–40% of Delhi’s PM2.5 levels during
the peak smog season. Although alternatives like Happy Seeders and government subsidies have
been introduced, uptake has been limited due to economic and logistical constraints.

6. Firecrackers and Festive Pollution

The celebration of festivals like Diwali significantly worsens air quality due to the widespread
use of firecrackers. These release high levels of sulfur dioxide, heavy metals, and particulate
matter, pushing AQI levels into the 'Severe' category.

Despite judicial restrictions and public advisories, enforcement remains a challenge. The
problem is compounded by existing smog conditions during the festival season.

7. Meteorological and Geographical Factors

Though not a source of pollution per se, Delhi’s topography and weather patterns play a crucial
role in trapping pollutants:

 Landlocked geography, with no coastal winds to disperse pollutants.

 Temperature inversion during winters traps cold air and pollutants close to the surface.
 Low wind speeds in post-monsoon and winter months prevent the dispersion of
emissions.

These factors turn the city into a pollution bowl, especially between October and January.
Health Impact of Air Pollution in Delhi

Air pollution in Delhi poses a serious threat to public health. With the Air Quality Index (AQI)
frequently breaching the ‘Very Unhealthy’ and ‘Hazardous’ levels, millions of residents are
exposed to a toxic mix of fine particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10), nitrogen oxides, sulfur
dioxide, ozone, carbon monoxide, and volatile organic compounds. These pollutants have both
short-term and long-term health implications, affecting nearly every organ system in the body.

1. Respiratory Disorders

Air pollution has an immediate and severe impact on the respiratory system. In Delhi, there has
been a significant increase in the incidence of:

 Asthma and bronchitis, especially among children and the elderly.

 Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in adults exposed to high levels of
PM2.5.
 Lung function impairment even in healthy individuals due to sustained exposure.

o DataPoint:
A study by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) in 2023 revealed that over
30% of school-going children in Delhi suffer from poor lung function. Additionally,
emergency room visits due to respiratory distress peak during periods of high pollution.

2. Cardiovascular Diseases

Numerous epidemiological studies have established a strong correlation between air pollution
and heart-related conditions. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5), due to its microscopic size,
penetrates deep into the lungs and enters the bloodstream, contributing to:

 Increased risk of heart attacks and strokes.

 Elevated blood pressure and atherosclerosis.
 Irregular heart rhythms and cardiac arrest in vulnerable populations.

o DataPoint:
According to a 2022 study published in The Lancet, long-term exposure to PM2.5 in
Delhi is linked to a 15–20% higher risk of cardiovascular mortality compared to
populations in cleaner cities.
3. Cancer Risk

Prolonged exposure to carcinogenic substances in polluted air—such as benzene, formaldehyde,

and PAHs (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons)—has been linked to various types of cancer.

 Lung cancer is the most common pollution-related malignancy.

 Some studies have also reported rising trends in bladder and throat cancers in urban
populations.

o DataPoint:
The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 estimated that Delhi reported over
10,000 premature deaths annually due to air pollution-linked cancers, a figure that
continues to rise.

4. Impact on Children

Children are among the most vulnerable to air pollution due to their developing organs and
higher inhalation rate relative to body weight. Key health concerns include:

 Reduced lung development and function.

 Increased frequency of colds, coughs, and flu-like illnesses.
 Neurodevelopmental issues, including impaired cognitive growth.

o DataPoint:
A 2021 study by AIIMS and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) found
that Delhi children had 10% lower lung capacity than children growing up in rural or
less polluted environments.

5. Mental Health and Neurological Effects

Emerging research indicates that air pollution also affects mental health and brain function. Fine
particulate matter is known to trigger neuroinflammation, potentially increasing the risk of:

 Depression and anxiety.

 Cognitive decline and memory loss.
 Neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s, in the long term.
 o DataPoint:
The University of Chicago's Air Quality Life Index (AQLI) 2023 noted that people
living in Delhi could lose up to 9.7 years of life expectancy if current pollution levels
persist.

6. Increased Mortality

Air pollution is one of the leading environmental causes of premature death. The cumulative
effect of cardiovascular, respiratory, and other systemic diseases results in high mortality rates.

o DataPoint:
According to a joint report by IQAir and Greenpeace (2023), air pollution led to over
54,000 premature deaths in Delhi in 2022 alone.

Summary Table: Health Impacts and Related Pollutants

Health Effect Major Pollutants Involved Vulnerable Groups

Asthma, Bronchitis, COPD PM2.5, PM10, NO₂, Children, Elderly, Asthmatics
Heart Attacks, Hypertension SO₂ PM2.5, CO, NO₂ Middle-aged, Elderly
Lung Cancer PM2.5, Benzene, PAHs All age groups
Low Birth Weight, PM2.5, CO Pregnant Women, Newborns
Miscarriage PM2.5, Lead, Children
Neurodevelopmental Delay O₃ PM2.5, General Population
Premature Death PM10
Status of Air Pollution in Delhi and at the National Level

I. Current Status of Air Pollution

Delhi

Delhi continues to be one of the most polluted capital cities in the world. According to the IQAir
2024 World Air Quality Report, Delhi ranked among the top five most polluted cities globally,
with an annual average PM2.5 concentration of over 92 µg/m³, far exceeding the WHO safe
limit of 5 µg/m³.

 Peak pollution months are October to January, primarily due to stubble burning,
temperature inversion, and festival-related emissions.
 AQI often crosses 400+ levels, falling into the 'Severe' category.
 The Air Quality Life Index (AQLI) estimates Delhi residents lose 9 to 10 years of life
expectancy due to chronic exposure to air pollution.

National Level

Air pollution is a nationwide problem, not limited to Delhi. Cities like Ghaziabad, Kanpur,
Varanasi, Lucknow, and Patna also record hazardous air quality levels.

 India is home to 14 of the top 20 most polluted cities in the world (as per IQAir 2023).
 Indoor air pollution is also a major concern in rural areas due to biomass burning and
poor ventilation.
 WHO estimates over 1.7 million premature deaths annually in India due to air
pollution (ambient + household).
 LITERATURE REVIEW

1.Air pollution in Delhi; Its Magnitude and Effects on Health

Researchers : Rizwan, SA; Nongkynrih, Baridalyne; Gupta, Sanjeev Kumar

Published: Indian Journal of Community Medicine 38(1):p 4-8, Jan–Mar
2013

This paper provides an evidence-based insight into the status of air pollution in Delhi
and its effects on health and control measures instituted.
The Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi has taken several steps to
reduce the level of air pollution in the city during the last 10 years. The benefits of air
pollution control measures are showing in the readings.

2.Air pollution and public health: the challenges for

Delhi, India

Researchers: Arun Kumar Sharma, Palak Baliyan and Prashant Kumar

Published: December 21, 2017

Here, we explored the extent of air pollution and its impacts on human health in the
megacity of Delhi (India) through a review of the published literature. The study aims
at describing the extent of air pollution in Delhi, the magnitude of health problems due
to air pollution and the risk relationship between air pollution and associated health
effects. The search showed that the extent of air pollution in Delhi has been described
by various researchers from about 1986 onwards. We synthesized the findings and
discuss them at length with respect to reported values, their possible
interpretations and any
limitations of the methodology. The chemical composition of ambient air pollution
is also discussed. Further, we discuss the magnitude of health problem with respect to
chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD), bronchial asthma and other illnesses.
The results of the literature search showed that data has been collected in last 28 years
on ambient air quality in Delhi, though it lacks a scientific continuity, consistency of
locations and variations in parameters chosen for reporting. As a result, it is difficult to
construct a spatiotemporal picture of the air pollution status in Delhi over time.

3.Air pollution in Delhi

Researchers: C. B. Tripathi, Prashant Baredar and Lata Tripathi

Current Science
Vol. 117, No. 7 (10 October 2019), pp. 1153-1160 (8 pages)
Published By: Current Science Association
Publisher Information
CURRENT SCICENCE is published by the Current Science Association, Bangalore,
in collaboration with Indian Academy of Sciences, Bangalore. The Association is
registered as a Society in India under the Societies Registration Act. The main activity
of the Association is publication of a fortnightly multidisciplinary journal.

Air pollution causes severe environmental problems and has become a major health risk
for livelihood in Delhi. With increase in population, there is an increase in emissions
from various utilities as well.
The present study discusses human health safety caused by air pollution, analysis and
mitigation of air pollution using suitable environmental policies and application of
biomass energy.

4.The Health Benefits of Air Pollution Control in Delhi

Researchers: Maureen L. Cropper, Nathalie B. Simon, Anna Alberini, Seema Arora

and P. K. Sharma
American Journal of Agricultural Economics
Vol. 79, No. 5, Proceedings Issue (Dec., 1997), pp. 1625-1629 (5 pages)
Published By: Wiley

Journal Information

The purpose of the American Journal of Agricultural Economics is to provide a forum

for creative and scholarly work in agricultural economics. Submitted manuscripts focus
on the economics of natural resources and the environment, agriculture, and rural and
community development. Papers are problem-oriented and demonstrate originality and
innovation in analysis, methods, or application. Analyses of problems pertinent to
research, extension, and teaching are included, as well as interdisciplinary research with
a significant economic component. Review articles that offer a comprehensive and
insightful survey of a relevant subject, consistent with the scope of the journal, are also
included.

5.Industries in Delhi: Air pollution versus respiratory morbidities

Author : Neha Parveen, Lubna Siddiqui,Md Nawaj Sarif,Md Safikul

Islam,Nazreen Khanam,Sk Mohibul

The objectives of the study are to analyze the concentrations of air pollutants (PM10,
PM2.5, NO2 & CO) in industrial areas of Delhi and to assess the association among
meteorological variables, air pollutants, and respiratory diseases of industrial workers and
their family members. To map these pollutants concentration, Kriging and Inverse
Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation techniques were employed. The results showed
that several industrial areas were cloaked with all these four pollutants in varied ranges
and different seasons.
6.Human health risks in national capital territory of Delhi due to
air pollution

Author : Ajay Singh Nagpure ,Bhola Ram Gurjar ,Jc Martel

The spreadsheet model, Risk of Mortality/Morbidity due to Air Pollution (Ri–MAP) was
used to evaluate the direct health impacts of various criteria air pollutants present in
various districts of NCT Delhi during the period 1991 to 2010. By adopting the World
Health Organization (WHO) guideline concentrations for the air pollutants SO2, NO2
and total suspended particles (TSP), concentration–response relationships and a
population attributable–risk proportion concept were employed

About 11 394, 3 912, 1 697 and 16 253 excess number of cases of total mortality,
cardiovascular mortality, respiratory mortality and hospital admission of COPD
respectively were observed for entire NCT Delhi in year 2000.

A study by indian IIT kanpur and The energy and resources institute (TERI) Provides
a detailed analysis of pollution sources in Delhi-NCR , highlighting the need for
targeted mitigation stratgies . The study,s findings can inform policy decisions and
help develop effective solutions to adress Delhi’s air pollution crisis.
 DATA SOURCE & DESCRIPTION

2024 - Air Quality Perspective in Delhi

Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change

Delhi Records Highest Number of ‘Good to Moderate’ Air Quality Days in

2024, Excluding COVID Year: CAQM
The Commission for Air Quality Management in NCR and Adjoining Areas (CAQM), since its inception in
2021, through a series of firm steps, has initiated various policy measures and field actions towards abatement of
air pollution in Delhi-NCR.

Continual, concerted and persistent efforts of all the stakeholders round the year also in 2024 have further helped
to improve the general air quality in Delhi as is evident from a record 209 days during 2024 with the AQI falling
below 200 i.e. in “Good – Moderate” air quality category. Barring the COVID year 2020, which witnessed long
spells of very low anthropogenic, industrial and commercial activities during the COVID, owing to complete
lockdowns and other restrictions, the year 2024 recorded the highest number of “Good to Moderate” air
quality days.

Month-wise Avg. AQI for Delhi

Avg AQI 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

January 328 328 286 324 279 311 355
February 243 242 241 288 225 237 218
March 203 184 128 223 217 170 176
April 222 211 110 202 255 179 182
May 217 221 144 144 212 171 223
June 202 189 123 147 190 130 179
July 104 134 84 110 87 84 96
August 111 86 64 107 93 116 72
September 112 98 116 78 104 108 105
October 269 234 266 173 210 219 234
November 335 312 328 377 320 373 374
December 360 337 332 336 319 348 294

Delhi witnessed the best ever average AQI for the months of February and December during 2024, since
2018. The month of August, 2024 also recorded the best ever average AQI since 2018, discounting the
COVID year 2020. Further, second best daily average AQI was recorded during 2024 in 2 months (March and
April) since 2018, barring COVID affected 2020.
 Absolutely still / very low speed wind conditions during January, 2024 led to an abnormally high average AQI of
355, which is the highest for the month of January from 2018 to 2024. Likewise, exceptionally prolonged dry
spells from April to June particularly during May, 2024, coupled with high-speed winds leading to regional
transport of fine dust and particulate matter from the adjoining areas as also transboundary, resulted in poor AQI
for these months. The month of May suffered the worst ever average AQI in 2024, on this account for the period
between 2018 to 2024.

Despite the vagaries of meteorology and weather conditions as above, the average AQI for 2024 has been
the second best, at par with 2021 and 2022, barring the COVID year as tabulated under:

Avg. AQI for Delhi during the entire year

Comparative AQI Category status for Delhi

No. of days
AQI Category
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Good to
159 182 227 197 163 206 209
Moderate (<200)
Poor to
206 183 139 168 202 159 157
Severe (201 –
400+)

Based on gradation of the average AQI, the year 2024 witnessed the best ever “Good to Moderate”
and the least ever “Poor to Severe” AQI days (barring COVID affected 2020). The year 2024 also
witnessed a record low level of episodic events of farm burnings during paddy harvesting season. Number of
farm fires recorded during the paddy harvest season 2024 were 10,909 in Punjab, 1,406 in Haryana and a total
of 12,750 including NCR areas of UP, Rajasthan and NCT of Delhi.
 With persistent field level efforts and targeted policy initiatives for quantified results in the short/ medium/
long term, it is expected that air quality scenario over Delhi will see further gradual but marked improvement,
year on year.
 RESULTS

2024 was marked by prolonged monsoons — the delayed retreat of the monsoons resulted
in a longer clean air spell during the monsoon months and delayed the harvesting of crops in
the north-western states of Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh. With a drop in local wind
speeds and an increase in the emission load from agricultural waste burning in nearby
regions, Delhi’s air quality started deteriorating from the second week of October 2024.
Though the government increased vigilance, NCR’s air quality worsened further. The air
quality breached the ‘Severe’ mark for five straight days following Diwali (31 October).

CAQM came down heavily on polluting sources through its first emergency order of the
season, which was followed by subsequent orders. Construction and demolition activities,
freight and passenger traffic, and power plants and industries were the sectors targeted
through this series of orders and directions. To facilitate compliance, CAQM also set up
central and state-level task forces to enforce, monitor, and supervise the implementation of
the orders and directions. In the following paragraphs, we discuss the air quality during this
winter, the impact of meteorology, the contribution of different sources, and the performance
of forecasts. Finally, we discuss upon whether the actions taken by CAQM resulted in any
improvement in Delhi’s air quality.

Air quality in winter 2024

During the winter of 2024, about 75 per cent of the days, air quality was in the ‘Very poor’
to ‘Severe’ category. The which were first identified in 2018, did not show any
improvement compared to the last two years as well. Please note that we have used nine
hotspots in this analysis, selected using the criterion that ≥ 75 per cent of data is available in
a year. This highlights the need for hyperlocal monitoring and clamping down of local
sources. Even though stubble burning had a delayed start in 2024, around 85 per cent of the
fires in Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh happened during the stubble burning phase .
This disproves the commonly held view that stubble burning is the primary contributor
to the city’s winter pollution. Therefore, it is important to understand that improvement
in air quality relies on how well year-round sources (both local and outside city
boundaries) are managed.
 EFFECTS OF AIR POLLUTION

1. Respiratory Problems: Air pollution can cause respiratory issues like asthma, chronic
obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and lung cancer.

2. Cardiovascular Diseases: Exposure to poor air quality can increase the risk of heart
attacks, strokes, and other cardiovascular diseases.

3. Neurological Problems: Air pollution has been linked to neurodegenerative diseases

like Alzheimer's and Parkinson's.

4. Cancer: Long-term exposure to poor air quality can increase the risk of various
types of cancer, including lung, breast, and colon cancer.

5. Economic Impacts: Air pollution can lead to lost productivity, increased

healthcare costs, and damage to crops and infrastructure.

Influence of meteorology on air quality

Meteorological conditions play a crucial role in air quality, especially during winters. Low
temperatures and ventilation parameters like wind speed and mixing layer height can prevent
the dispersion of pollution. Given the impact winter meteorological conditions have on
Delhi’s air quality, it would be premature to comment on changes in air quality without
assessing the prevailing meteorological conditions. To explain how meteorology impacted
pollution this season, we use a parameter called the ventilation index, which is a measure of
the atmospheric potential to disperse pollutants. It is defined as the product of wind speed
and mixing layer height. A higher ventilation index is favourable for dispersion while a low
ventilation index results in the trapping of pollution. On comparing observed PM2.5 levels
with hourly ventilation levels during the stubble burning phase, we see a negative correlation
of about 0.4 between the PM2.5 concentration and ventilation Index.

To understand which sectors need to be targeted to cut down emissions and subsequently
improve air quality, reliable information on emissions and source contributions is a must. For
this study, we explore two such sources of information — IITM’s DSS and UE’s air quality
forecasts for Delhi. In the following sections, we summarise and compare the information
provided by both systems. Based on this comparison, we identify the key sources of
pollution during the different phases of winter 2024.

.
 Contribution of different sectors to air quality

o Existing research on source contributions to Delhi’s pollution suggests that the relative
contribution of different polluting sectors varies seasonally
o Contributions also vary within the same season. To identify the key drivers of pollution
in Delhi in 2024, we reviewed modelled source contribution estimates provided by
IITM’s DSS and UE air quality forecasts for Delhi. We also used UE district level
forecasts that has larger spatial coverage to study the sources outside the city boundary.
Moreover, to understand the role of stubble burning, we also considered modelled
estimates by SAFAR.
o In 2024, there was significant debate around the actual contribution of stubble
burning to Delhi’s pollution pie. The number of fires reported during the stubble
burning phase in 2024 was the highest in the last five years. Cumulatively, about
80,000 farm fires were reported in Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh.

o We find that the average contribution of stubble burning during this period was around
17 per cent as per SAFAR, 32 per cent as per UE, and 12 per cent as per DSS. The
estimates of the open fire relative contribution differ across the three models as each
model considers different sector-wise absolute contributions that vary in terms of
configuration (i.e., domain size and spatial resolution) and the emissions inventories
they use. And, therefore, the relative contributions
differ in value as well.

o We find that about two-thirds of Delhi’s winter pollution comes from outside the city’s
boundaries . According to UE, biomass burning of agricultural waste during the stubble
burning phase and burning for heating and cooking needs during the peak winter phase
is estimated to be a major contributor to city’s pollution load. Locally, transport (12 per
cent), dust (7 per cent), and domestic biomass burning (6 per cent) contribute the
maximum to the PM2.5 pollution load of the city. While transport and dust are perennial
sources of pollution in the city, residential space heating is a seasonal source. But this
seasonal contribution is so significant that, as the use of biomass as a heat source in and
around Delhi starts going up as winter progresses, the residential sector becomes the
single largest contributor in the peak winter phase. It is important to note here that the
DSS in the current form can apportion the share of nearby districts in Delhi’s pollution
load. However, it does not identify the specific sources within these districts that need to
be controlled.
o Regardless of the variations in estimated source shares, it is clear that addressing
transport-related emissions should be GNCTD’s priority. Firstly, restrictions on the
movement of private vehicles should be introduced as soon as the models sound an
alarm for ‘Very poor’ to ‘Severe’ air quality conditions
in the coming days. Secondly, emissions related to space heating, both locally and in nearby
districts, highlight how energy poverty in this region has unintended consequences for air
pollution. Finally, emergency response measures should be enforced stringently across the
NCR states. This will reduce the pollution load in the region and will benefit locally and
across the Indo- Gangetic plain.

How did the different forecasting systems perform?

 As mentioned previously, this was the first time forecasted air quality and
meteorological conditions were considered while rolling out preventive measures.
However, to integrate forecasts into decision-making, continuous validation of the
forecast is critical. As described in the methodology section, we assess the
performance of models by comparing the modelled and measured concentrations
through different performance metrics.

 We can see that all the forecasts capture the trend in line with measured particulate
concentration at the city level. In the case of the AQ-EWS (3-day) and AQ-EWS
(10-day), the correlation is in the range of 0.54–0.87, while UE forecasts correlate in
the range of 0.69–0.80. Moreover, all the forecast models have a mean absolute
percentage error of less than 40 per cent. However, it is worth noting that all the
models on average are under predicting with respect to the average ground
observations. Among all the forecasts, AQ-EWS (3-day) was found to have the
lowest mean bias in the range of –3.7 µgm–3 to –9.5 µgm–3.

Accuracy in predicting high pollution episodes decreases for

future time horizons
One of the main objectives of the forecast is to provide timely alerts specifically for high
pollution episodes (‘Very poor’ and ‘Severe’ categories). We found that for day 1, the AQ-
EWS (3-day) forecast can predict with an accuracy of 73 per cent while the AQ-EWS (10-
day) forecast has an accuracy of 62 per cent (Table 2). In the case of UE, the accuracy is
about 53 per cent. For day 2, the accuracy reduces for all the models – AQ-EWS (3-day) is
about 56 per cent accurate, AQ- EWS (10-day) is 53 per cent accurate, while UE is about 44
per cent accurate.
For day 3, for AQ-EWS (3-day), AQ-EWS (10- day), and UE, the accuracy reduced to 50
per cent, 42 per cent, and 36 per cent, respectively.
We find that AQ-EWS (3-day) has the lowest bias and the highest accuracy in predicting
high pollution episodes. It is important to note that the AQ-EWS assimilates surface
PM2.5 observations and MODIS AOD measurements to accurately determine the initial
conditions, while the UE forecast system does not use any assimilation. While
assimilation certainly improves model performance, the bias between predicted and
measured concentrations helps diagnose the uncertainties in emission estimates that feed
into the model.

Station-level validation of the forecast

PM2.5 concentration varies across the city due to multiple factors such as population
distribution, land use, and local emission sources, i.e., the presence of small-scale industries,
construction activities, traffic density, etc. To assess whether the modelled forecasts were
able to capture this spatial variation in pollution levels, we compared modelled
concentrations at monitoring station locations and the concentration reported by these
monitoring stations. We consider the intersection of the spatial grids from UE’s and the
location of regulatory monitors, and compare the modelled and measured concentrations. The
model captures the trend reported by the regulatory monitors and performs reasonably
across the regulatory locations. The forecast has a median correlation of about 0.69 and a
median MAPE of 29 per cent. Further, the forecast does underpredict with a median bias of
–25 µgm–3. Finally, the model can predict high pollution days with a median accuracy of
about 54 per cent.
DATA: 2024
 CONCLUSION

Policies and Regulations

I. Major Policies and Regulations

The Government of India and the Government of NCT of Delhi have implemented several policy
frameworks and emergency responses to combat air pollution. These can be classified under
national and state-level measures.

A. Central Government Initiatives

1. National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) – 2019

 Launched by the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC).

 Objective: 20–30% reduction in PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations by 2024 (from
2017 baseline).
 Focuses on 102 non-attainment cities, including Delhi.
 Strategies include:
o Installation of air quality monitoring systems.
o Promotion of cleaner transportation.
o Industrial emission control.
o Waste management and public awareness.

2. Bharat Stage (BS) Emission Standards

 Phased vehicular emission norms similar to Euro standards.

 BS-VI implemented nationwide from April 1, 2020.
 Major features:
o Drastic reduction in NOx and particulate emissions.
o Sulfur content in fuel reduced to 10 ppm (from 50 ppm in BS-IV).
o Introduction of diesel particulate filters and selective catalytic reduction systems.

Status: All new vehicles in India must comply with BS-VI standards.

.
3. Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) – 2020
  Established under the Air (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act, 1981.
Acts as a statutory authority to oversee air quality in Delhi-NCR and adjoining states
 Powers:
o Coordinate with state governments.
o Enforce GRAP, ban construction/firecrackers.
o Penalize violators across jurisdictions.

Status: Actively monitors stubble burning, industrial compliance, and emergency response protocols.

4. Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) – 2017

 Enforced by Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB).

 Action-based framework for Delhi-NCR based on AQI levels:
o Moderate to Poor: Mechanized cleaning, water sprinkling.
o Very Poor: Halt diesel generator use, enhanced public transport.
o Severe: Ban construction activities, restrict trucks.
o Severe+: Closure of schools, odd-even traffic rules.

B. Delhi State Government Initiative

1. Odd-Even Traffic Scheme

 Introduced in 2016 as an emergency measure to control traffic emissions.

 Private vehicles allowed on alternate days based on odd/even registration numbers.
 Applied during severe pollution episodes.

Status: Temporarily enforced during GRAP phases, but with mixed results due to
limited public transport support.

2. Green War Room & Real-Time Monitoring

 Launched to coordinate inter-agency response during pollution peaks.

 Equipped with data from 40+ air quality monitoring stations across Delhi.
 Monitors road dust, construction sites, and stubble burning in real time.
3. Anti-Dust Campaign and Civil Construction Guidelines

 Mandated:
o Covering of construction sites.
o Water sprinklers and dust suppressants.
o Penalties for non-compliance (₹10,000 – ₹5,00,000 fines).

Status: Routinely enforced with surprise inspections.

4. “Pusa Decomposer” for Stubble Burning

 Developed by IARI (Indian Agricultural Research Institute).

 Delhi government uses it as a bio-decomposer spray to break down paddy straw.
 Distributed free to farmers in Delhi and NCR.

Status: Limited success; needs cooperation from neighboring states.

5. Switch Delhi Campaign

 Aims to promote electric vehicles among citizens.

 Offers:
o Road tax and registration fee waivers.
o Incentives for e-rickshaws, e-scooters, and charging points.

6. Tree Plantation and Urban Forestry

 “Yamuna Vanasthali” and Miyawaki forests projects to improve green cover.

 Over 30 lakh trees/plants planted since 2018.
Challenges

Air pollution in Delhi continues to be one of the most severe and persistent environmental crises
in India. Despite numerous policy interventions, several challenges hinder effective mitigation:

 Multi-source Emissions: Pollution arises from vehicles, construction, industries,

biomass burning, and transboundary stubble burning—making source-specific
control difficult.
 Weak Implementation: While regulations exist, enforcement remains inconsistent
due to administrative fragmentation and insufficient monitoring.
 Informal Sector Impact: Activities such as unregulated e-waste burning and informal
manufacturing release toxic pollutants without oversight.
 Public Awareness and Participation: Citizen compliance with pollution-control
norms (e.g., vehicle maintenance, waste segregation) remains low.
 Seasonal Variability: Weather patterns, particularly in winter, trap pollutants and worsen
air quality, complicating long-term planning.

Future Interpretations

The study of air pollution in Delhi holds critical implications for future research and policy
direction:

 Data-Driven Solutions: Incorporating AI, satellite imagery, and sensor networks

can improve real-time monitoring and predictive modeling.
 Urban Planning Reforms: Future development must integrate green infrastructure,
low- emission transport, and sustainable construction practices.
 Integrated Regional Policies: Since pollution in Delhi often stems from
neighboring states (e.g., crop burning in Punjab & Haryana), regional cooperation
and shared governance models are essential.
 Health Risk Forecasting: Strengthening epidemiological models can help
forecast health impacts, enabling targeted healthcare and prevention strategies.
 Climate Linkages: As air pollution and climate change are interlinked, future
interpretations should address co-benefits of mitigation (e.g., reducing black
carbon lowers both warming and respiratory risk).
Significance of the Study

This study underscores the urgent need for a multi-pronged, scientifically informed,
and citizen-inclusive approach to mitigate air pollution in Delhi. Its significance lies in
the following:

 Policy Guidance: It provides evidence-based insights to refine existing policies

and strengthen enforcement.
 Public Health Advocacy: By highlighting the health impacts, the study builds a case
for air quality to be treated as a public health emergency.
 Environmental Justice: It draws attention to vulnerable populations—such as children,
the elderly, and low-income communities—who bear the greatest burden of polluted air.
 Sustainable Urban Development: The study contributes to broader discussions
on designing livable, breathable cities in India’s rapidly urbanizing context.