CIV 4105 Lecture 06

Climate Change Models

(Water Resources)

5/1/2025 1
 Introduction to Climate Change Models
❖Climate models simulate the Earth’s climate system.
❖Incorporate atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial
processes.
❖Project future climate conditions under different emission
scenarios.
❖Climate change models simulate interactions within the
climate system.
▪ Help project future climate conditions
▪ Include atmospheric, oceanic, land, and ice processes
▪ Use various greenhouse gas emission scenarios
5/1/2025 2
 Earth’s Climate
System
Sun

Climate
Atmosphere
model
components
Land Ocean Ice

Sub-surface Earth

5/1/2025 3
 Atmosphere
◼ Composition (in particular the greenhouse gases and
aerosols) determine radiative and thermodynamic
properties
◼ Passage and absorption of radiation (energy from Sun
and back into space) crucial
◼ Conservation of mass, momentum, energy, and
equation of state: general circulation
◼ Hydrological cycle (evaporation, clouds, rainfall,
runoff…)
5/1/2025 4
 Ocean
◼ Surface circulation driven by wind: large scale ocean basin
gyres
◼ Deep overturning circulation driven by ‘thermohaline circulation’
– competing influences of heat and salt on sea-water density
◼ Oceans transport ~50% of heat from equator to pole
(atmosphere other 50%)
◼ Most of the climate system’s stored heat is in the ocean – it
acts as a big flywheel – making the climate system respond
over much longer time periods (decades) than if the Earth’s
surface were all land
◼ Ocean and atmosphere closely coupled
5/1/2025 5
 Cryosphere - Ice
◼ Mass balance of ice sheets: snow adds material,
evaporation/sublimation, ablation, and melting removes
◼ Rising temperatures don’t necessarily imply shrinking
ice sheets, as it may mean increased precipitation
(snowfall)
◼ Ice dynamics (e.g. glacier flow rates) important
◼ Ice albedo – clean snow vs. dirty snow
◼ Close interaction of ice with atmosphere and oceans

5/1/2025 6
 Biosphere
◼ Models have simplified representations of land and ocean carbon
cycles
◼ Only ½ the emitted CO2 ends up in the atmosphere – the other ½ is
taken up by the oceans and vegetation
◼ CO2 uptake by ocean causes acidification:
CO2(g) + H2O(aq) ↔ H2CO3(aq)
↔ H+ + HCO3-
↔ 2H+ + CO32-
With potential impacts on marine biota – harder to form a calcium
carbonate skeleton – high uncertainties

5/1/2025 7
 Earth System Model

▪ Physical Model + Ecological Model + Biogeochemical Model

+…….
▪ No perfect model! A model for a purpose!

The Role of Climate Model

❑Quantitative Assessment of Complex System
❑Numerical Laboratory, especially important for geophysical field
❑Most credible strategy for prediction

5/1/2025 8
 Coupled atmosphere / ocean climate model
Radiation

Atmosphere: Density
Motion
Water

Heat
Exchange of: Momentum
Water

Ocean: Density (inc. Salinity) Sea Land

Motion Ice

5/1/2025 9
 The Climate System

5/1/2025 10
 The Climate System

5/1/2025 11
(IPCC TAR, Ch. 1)
 The Climate System

5/1/2025 12
(IPCC TAR, Ch. 1)
 Feedbacks
◼ There are many important feedbacks in the climate system that can
either amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback)
forcings
◼ Examples:
i. + Water vapour – a warmer atmosphere holds more water, which is a
greenhouse gas
ii. + Ice albedo – a warmer atmosphere has less ice cover, and reduces
albedo
iii. +/- Clouds – a more cloudy atmosphere tends to be warmer at night,
but cooler during the day. Cloud height is also important
◼ Uncertainties in feedbacks lead to uncertainties in future predictions –
currently the main source of uncertainty
5/1/2025 13
 Feedbacks

Internal couplings through linking processes

5/1/2025 14
Amplify or diminish initial induced climate change
 The Development of Climate models, Past, Present and Future
Mid 1970s Mid 1980s Early 1990s Late 1990s Present day Early 2000s

Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere

Land surface Land surface Land surface Land surface Land surface

Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice Ocean & sea-ice

Sulphate Sulphate Sulphate

aerosol aerosol aerosol
Non-sulphate Non-sulphate
aerosol aerosol
Carbon cycle Carbon cycle

Atmospheric
chemistry

Ocean & sea-ice Sulphur Non-sulphate

Off-line model cycle model aerosols
model Land carbon
development cycle model
Carbon
cycle model
Ocean carbon
Strengthening colours cycle model
denote improvements
in models Atmospheric Atmospheric
chemistry chemistry

5/1/2025 Climate models → Earth System Models 15

 Climate simulations 1860-2000

Model in grey
observations
in red

Including natural and

anthropogenic forcings
makes the model produce
the best simulation of
20th century climate

5/1/2025 16
 Climatic Variation and Change
Additional Factors

1. Abrupt change
- external conditions (e.g., solar output)
- internal feedbacks
- passing a threshold (e.g. ice caps melting)

2. Multiple climate states from the same external

conditions
5/1/2025 17
 Global Climate Models

5/1/2025 18
 On the top, in red,
Attribution Observations
are individual model
simulations and their
• are observed changes consistent overall mean shown
fat, that are driven by
with external influences
including increases
 expected responses to forcings in greenhouse
gases, in aerosols, in
 inconsistent with alternative All forcing changes in solar
radiation and by
explanations volcanic eruptions.
The observations
rarely leave the
❖ Climate models are important tools for attributing
range of model
and understanding climate change. Understanding simulations. The
observed changes is based on our best Solar+volcanic trends and individual
understanding of climate physics, as contained in events like cooling in
simple to complex climate models. response to volcanic
eruptions (POINT)
❖ For the 4th assessment report, we had a new and
are well reproduced.
very comprehensive archive of 20th century The fuzzy range
simulations available. This has greatly helped. gives an idea of
❖ observed global and annual mean temperature in uncertainty with
black over the 20th century compared to that variability in the
climate system.
simulated by a wide range of these models.
 Understanding and Attributing Climate Change

Continental warming
likely shows a
significant
anthropogenic
contribution over the
past 50 years
 Importance of Water Resources in Climate
Modeling
i. Water is crucial for agriculture, human consumption,
ecosystems, and industry.
ii. Climate change alters precipitation, evaporation, and water
availability.
iii. Models help predict water stress and guide planning.
iv. Climate change models are tools used to predict the
behavior of climate systems under different scenarios.
v. These models are essential for understanding the potential
impact of climate change on water resources.

5/1/2025 21
 Types of Climate Models
i. Global Climate Models (GCMs) - large-scale projections.
ii. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) - downscaled for
detail.
iii. Hydrological Models - simulate river flows and
groundwater.

5/1/2025 22
 Types of Climate Change Models
i. General Circulation Models (GCMs):
❖GCMs simulate the global climate system, focusing on large-scale
variables such as temperature, pressure, and wind patterns.
❖They are used to predict long-term climate changes, considering
factors like greenhouse gas emissions and human activities.
❖Relevance to Water Resources: GCMs help forecast changes in
precipitation, runoff, and temperature, which directly affect water
availability.
ii. Regional Climate Models (RCMs):
❖RCMs provide more localized climate projections, focusing on specific
regions to offer higher resolution forecasts.

5/1/2025 23
 Types of Climate Change Models
❖They are particularly useful in understanding how global climate
change will impact local water systems.
iii. Hydrological Models:
❑These models apply climate data (from GCMs and RCMs) to predict
hydrological variables, such as river flow, groundwater recharge, and
water storage in reservoirs.
❑Key for Water Resources: They help engineers assess how changes in
precipitation and temperature will affect water availability and quality.

5/1/2025 24
 Observed and Projected Changes
A. Observed Changes:
i. Global Temperature Rise: Global average temperatures have
increased over the past century, influencing water cycles worldwide.
ii. Shifts in Precipitation Patterns: Changes in rainfall intensity and
distribution have been observed, with some regions experiencing
more intense storms and others suffering from droughts.
iii. Extreme Weather Events: Increased frequency of extreme events,
such as floods and droughts, which impact water resource
management.
iv. Rising Sea Levels: Melting polar ice caps and glaciers lead to rising
sea levels, affecting coastal aquifers and freshwater supplies.

5/1/2025 25
 Observed and Projected Changes
B. Projected Changes:
i. Temperature: Expected to continue rising, affecting evaporation
rates, snowpack melt times, and rainfall patterns.
ii. Precipitation: Projections suggest that some areas will experience
increased rainfall, while others, particularly arid regions, will face drier
conditions.
iii. Flooding and Drought: Increased severity of floods and droughts in
many regions due to altered precipitation patterns.
iv. Sea Level Rise: Coastal freshwater sources may become more
saline as sea levels rise.

5/1/2025 26
 Impacts and Responses
Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources:
i. Water Availability: Reduction in Freshwater Supplies: Prolonged
droughts and increased evaporation reduce available water.
ii. Changes in River Flow: Altered snowmelt timings and precipitation
patterns affect river discharge and groundwater recharge.
iii. Water Quality: Higher Temperatures: Warming water leads to lower
dissolved oxygen levels, affecting aquatic life.
iv. Contamination: Extreme weather events, such as floods, can
overwhelm water treatment facilities, increasing the risk of
contamination.
v. Ecosystem Disruption: Habitat Loss: Changing water flows and
temperatures can harm aquatic ecosystems, including fish migration
patterns.
5/1/2025 27
 Impacts and Responses
Responses:
i. Engineering Solutions: Construction of reservoirs, dams,
and water treatment plants to store and treat water.
ii. Policy and Management: Integrated water resource
management plans that prioritize conservation, efficiency,
and equitable water distribution.

5/1/2025 28
 Adaptation and Mitigation
A. Adaptation strategies focus on adjusting to the effects of
climate change:
i. Water Conservation: Efficient irrigation techniques, water-
saving technologies, and public awareness campaigns.
ii. Resilient Infrastructure: Designing water systems that can
withstand extreme weather events, such as flooding or
droughts.
iii. Climate-Sensitive Planning: Urban and rural water
infrastructure designed to cope with climate-induced water
shortages and variability.
5/1/2025 29
 Adaptation and Mitigation
B. Mitigation strategies focus on reducing the causes of climate
change:
i. Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Transition to
renewable energy sources (solar, wind, hydropower) and
improved energy efficiency.
ii. Carbon Sequestration: Practices such as afforestation and
sustainable land use to capture and store carbon in
vegetation and soils.

5/1/2025 30
 Key Variables in Water-Related Models
i. Precipitation,
ii. Evapotranspiration,
iii. Temperature,
iv. Soil Moisture,
v. Snowpack,
vi. Streamflow.

5/1/2025 31
 Impacts of Climate Change on Water
Resources
i. More droughts/floods,
ii. groundwater depletion,
iii. changing flow patterns,
iv. reduced snowpack,
v. sea-level rise.

5/1/2025 32
Climate Model
Given the size of the problem and the finite amount of computer
power that can be brought to bear, compromises have to be made.

Some important physical processes cannot be represented explicitly.

They must be represented approximately by numerical
“parameterizations.”

Parameterizations are approximations and are not exact. Different

parameterizations produce some of the differences in the simulations
of different climate models.

33
Model Equilibrium
Model Climate = Real Climate!!!

Real
Climate
Model
X Climate

Adjustment Steady State Solution

Time
34
Climate Change Processes
Rate of change & variance should be equal

Real Climate

X Model Climate

A E Climate Change Process

Time
35
 What is a model?
❑“A simplified representation of reality that tells you how
something works or will work.”
• Used for known things, unknowns and predictions
• Not (and nor ever will be) perfect

Representation of known things

– Model verification: calibration and validation

5/1/2025 36
 Climate Risk Management Approach
(from months, through Decades, to Climate Change)
Four Pillars
i. Identify Vulnerabilities and Opportunities in Climate Variability
and Change in Collaboration with “Stakeholders” (which systems,
what components within systems)
ii. Understand / Quantify / Reduce Uncertainties (learn from the
past, monitor the present, provide relevant info on the future)
iii. Identify Interventions (Technologies) that Reduce Vulnerability
(e.g., vaccination, drought resistance crops, awater holding
capacity)
iv. Identify Policies and Institutional Arrangements that reduce
Vulnerability and/or Transfer Risks (Early Warning / Early
Response Systems, Insurance, Credit)
5/1/2025 37
(Baethgen, 2010)
 Case Studies/Examples
i. Colorado River Basin,
ii. Nile Basin scenarios,
iii. Himalayan glacier melt,
iv. Cape Town water supply.

5/1/2025 38
 Challenges and Uncertainties
i. Incomplete data,
ii. regional variability,
iii. model sensitivity,
iv. socio-economic integration,
v. resolution limits.

5/1/2025 39
 Tools and Software
i. SWAT,
ii. WEAP,
iii. VIC,
iv. MODFLOW

⃰ hydrology and management modeling tools with GIS

integration.

5/1/2025 40
 Future Directions
i. Improved accuracy via AI,
ii. regional modeling,
iii. socio-economic model integration
iv. cross-discipline work.

5/1/2025 41
 Conclusion
▪ Climate change poses significant challenges to water resources through
altered precipitation, temperature, and extreme weather events.
▪ Effective management requires the use of climate models to predict future
scenarios and inform decision-making (Models are vital for prediction,
planning, & adaptation).
▪ Adaptation and mitigation strategies are essential to safeguarding water
resources and ensuring future sustainability.
▪ Future advances will support sustainable water management.
▪ Climate models represent the main components of the climate system, and
their interactions and feedbacks
▪ Climate models have some skill at simulating present-day climate, and also
the trend over the 20th century
This gives us some confidence that they can predict the future…
▪ 5/1/2025 42
A Conceptual Framework for Modelling the Climate
Change and its Impacts within a River basin Using
Remote Sensing Data

M. Sathyaseelan, S.K. Ghosh, C.S.P. Ojha

Department of Civil Engineering

Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee
Introduction

The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change 5th assessment report (IPCC AR5) states
that 21st century may have an increase in Global warming of ~1.5°C (IPCC AR5, 2019).

Global Climate Change is the key factor that create impacts on hydrological cycle at
various stages (Bharati et al., 2011; Immerzeel et al., 2013; Surampalli et al., 2015).

Climate change and its adaptation measures all over the world are still under research
because of its complex and dynamics nature (Singh et al., 1997;; Adler et al., 2019).

An integrated framework for modelling the Climate Change and its impacts within a river
basin scale may help to manage the water resources efficiently.

The conceptual framework consists of a data component, process component, impact

component, uncertainty component and feedback component.
General Conceptual Framework

Simulated
Hydro-Climatic Data Land Surface Data Hydrological Data
GCM/RCM/Projected Data
Precipitation Topography/DEM River/ Waterbodies
CORDEX
Temperature Landuse/land cover Discharge
CMIP
Evapotranspiration
Data Soil type Flow level
Relative humidity NCEP/NOAA
Wind Speed WRF Component Soil Moisture
Reservoir Level

Impact on Land
Uncertainty
•Landuse/land
Component cover
Land Process Impact dynamics
Processes Component Component •Unpredictable
Glacier/Snow
dynamics

Atmospheric
and Ocean
Feedback Impact on Water Impact on
Processes Component Atmosphere & Ocean
•Reduction in
the water •Increased Extreme
availability rainfall events.
Hydrological
•Reduction in Rainfall
Processes •Changes
amount.
observed in the
hydrological •Anomaly in Sea
response of a Surface
river basin. Temperature.
Data Component
Precipitation – IMD, CRU, TRMM, GPM, PERSIANN, MERRA Topography / DEM – SRTM, ASTER, Cartosat, ALOSPalSAR

Temperature - TM, MODIS Terra & Aqua, AVHRR LULC – Landsat, Sentinel, IRS, MODIS Terra, AWiFS

Evapotranspiration- MODIS ET, MERRA Soil – Landsat, MODIS

Wind Speed - GEOS, Meteosat, Quick SCAT, Kalpana (GEO), Soil Moisture – Landsat, Sentinel, IRS, MODIS Terra, AWiFS,
INSAT-3D (GEO) SMAP, RISAT,

Hydro-Climatic Data Land Surface Data

Data Component

Hydrological Data Projected Data

Waterbodies/ River extraction CMIP5

Discharge CORDEX

Flow Level NCEP

Reservoir level WRF

Process Component - Atmospheric Process
Process - I

Precipitation Climate Change

Seasonality If Yes Trend Yes
detection
Exist ? analysis Spatial
Temperature Trend exists
Analysis on
Highly dynamic to Climatic
Long Term Short term detect trend and Trends
Data Data No Hence assumed as
trend does not exists

Process - II

Statistical Downscaling
GCM’s

Initial
Desired weather data
Boundary Atmospheric
parameters at a higher
Conditions Model
spatial resolution
PBL-SST, CC
Data
Topography, Assimilation
Landuse/
land cover
data, Soil Dynamical Downscaling
LSM
Moisture
 Process Component - Hydrological Process
Basin Characteristics Atmospheric Data/ Process Land Surface Data
Input Data Basin Delineation Meteorological Data Topography – DEM
(P, Tmax, Tmin, RH, W, SLR)
River Network Geometry
LULC Scenarios
Basin Morphometry
RCP Scenarios
GCM’s Soil moisture
Gauge/Discharge Stations 4.5 & 8.5

Physically based
distributed
Hydrological Model

Simulated Hydrological response

(Runoff QSim, Sediment Discharge SSim)

Calibration and Validation of Observed Sediment

Observed Runoff (QObs)
Hydrological Model Discharge SSim)

Future hydrological response from the

hydrological model run scenarios
Impact Component within a River Basin
Impact within a River
Basin

Impact on Soil Impact on Water

Impact on LULC Resources
Moisture

Changes in Surface Changes in

Snow Cover Forest cover Agricultural Changes in
Soil Erosion area of Hydrological
Dynamics Changes land Crop Yield
Waterbodies response

Aerosols Changes in
Wetlands Changes in Water Sediment
Storage levels Runoff
Yield
Increasing frequency of Extreme events

Droughts Floods

Socio-Economic Environment and Land Degradation & Water Scarcity &

Habitation Food Security
Conditions Ecosystem Desertification Availability
Uncertainty Component
Input Data
Source Specific Statistical Lumped
Uncertainty parameters based Uncertainty
Meteorological Bias Correction Meteorological
Data (Mean and SD) Data
Uncertainty Uncertainty

OR Meteorological Hydrological AND

Hydrological Data Data Hydrological

Data Data
Uncertainty Uncertainty
Parametric
GCM Data
Uncertainty
Downscaling
techniques
Ensemble of Hydrological
Ensemble of GCM’s
Models

Streamflow
Precipitation Probabilistic analysis to identify generation
the range values of different
variables Routing
Temperature Process
Identification of the Uncertainty
Range of different variables
Feedback Component
Step 1 Climate model
response with respect
Climate Sensitivity
to Temperature and Identification
Radiative forcing of Model
Hydrological parameters Feedback
Sensitivity
Sensitivity based on the component
Analysis
Statistical Significance sensitivity
value for the analysis
Land Surface parameters
Sensitivity (P-Value and t-test)

Step 2
Land Evapotranspiration Soil Moisture
Radiative Forcing
Solar
Irradiance Dust/
Aerosols Sensitivity
GHG / Smoke
Emissions
Atmosphere
Hydrology Evaporation
/Ocean

Water Vapour Relative Humidity

Negative
CO2 Other GHG’s Feedback Component Positive Feedback
Feedback

Temperature Lapse Rate Cloud Ice Albedo Precipitation Vegetation

Conclusion

This conceptual framework tries to summarize the possible components

required to model the climate change impact within a river basin.

This conceptual idea may preferably be developed using open source

programming languages for platforms such as Linux, Windows, etc.

The use of atmospheric modelling and hydrological modelling requires HPC

clusters for faster compilation and parallel processing.

Some of the remote sensing based datasets, climate model datasets and
modelling algorithms may be directly fetched from online public servers.

The use of remote sensing products, GCM’s and their downscaled products
for the modelling may result in uncertainties.
 Review Questions
i. Differentiate between General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models
(RCMs).
ii. Why are ensemble models used in climate projections?
iii. List three observed impacts of climate change on water resources.
iv. What are two projected changes in precipitation due to climate change?
v. Describe two major impacts of climate change on hydropower systems.
vi. Explain how Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) helps respond to climate
change.
vii. What is the difference between adaptation and mitigation in water resources management?
viii. Give two examples of climate adaptation strategies in the water sector.
ix. Explain how urban drainage systems can be modified to adapt to climate change.

5/1/2025 53