CE 322: TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING II

Vehicle Arrival and Queuing Theory

Nipjyoti Bharadwaj
Assistant professor, Department of Civil Engineering
Indian Institute of Technology-Guwahati
Vehicle Arrivals and Time Headways
• How do vehicles arrive at a signal, a toll booth, a highway ramp, etc?

• Do they follow any pattern?

• Why is it important to understand vehicle arrival patterns?

• Vehicle arrival patterns

• Deterministic – Uniform

• Stochastic – e.g., Poisson Model

• Inter-arrival time or the time headway

• Exponential distribution
Poisson distribution
• Models that account for the nonuniformity of flow are derived by assuming that the pattern
of vehicle arrivals (at a specified point) corresponds to some random process.

• The problem then becomes one of selecting a probability distribution that is a reasonable
representation of observed traffic arrival patterns.

• An example of such a distribution is the Poisson distribution.

• 1) Individual events happen at random and independently. That is, the probability of one
event doesn’t affect the probability of another event.

• 2) You know the mean number of events occurring within a given interval of time or space.
This number is called λ (lambda), and it is assumed to be constant.
Poisson distribution
Question 1

• An observer counts 360 veh/h at a specific highway location. Assuming that the arrival of
vehicles at this highway location is Poisson distributed, estimate the probabilities of
having 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 or more vehicles arriving over a 20-second time interval.
Time headway Modelling
The assumption of Poisson vehicle arrivals also implies a distribution of the time intervals
between the arrivals of successive vehicles (time headway). To show this, note that the
𝑞
average arrival rate is: λ=
3600

𝑞𝑡 𝑛 −𝑞𝑡/3600
( ) 𝑒
3600
𝑝(n)= 𝑛!
Time headway Modelling
Note that the probability of having no vehicles arrive in a time interval of length t, P(0), is
equivalent to the probability of a vehicle headway, h, being greater than or equal to the time
interval t. 𝑝 0 =𝑝 ℎ≥𝑡

=𝑒 −𝑞𝑡/3600

This distribution of vehicle headways is known as the negative exponential distribution and
is often simply referred to as the exponential distribution.
Time headway Modelling
Question 2
• Consider the traffic situation 360 veh/h. Again assume that the vehicle arrivals are
Poisson distributed. What is the probability that the gap between successive vehicles will
be less than 8 seconds, and what is the probability that the gap between successive
vehicles will be between 8 and 10 seconds?
Limitations of the Poisson Model
• Empirical observations have shown that the assumption of Poisson-distributed traffic
arrivals is most realistic in lightly congested traffic conditions.

• As traffic flows become heavily congested or when traffic signals cause cyclical traffic
stream disturbances, other distributions of traffic flow become more appropriate.

• The primary limitation of the Poisson model of vehicle arrivals is the constraint imposed
by the Poisson distribution that the mean of period observations equals the variance.
Limitations of the Poisson Model
• For example, the mean of period-observed traffic is 6.733 and the corresponding

variance, σ2, is 7.210. Because these two values are close, the Poisson model was
appropriate for this example.

• If the variance is significantly greater than the mean, the data are said to be
overdispersed, and if the variance is significantly less than the mean, the data are said to
be underdispersed. In either case the Poisson distribution is no longer appropriate, and
another distribution should be used.
QUEUING THEORY
• The formation of traffic queues during congested periods is a source of considerable time
delay and results in a loss of highway performance.

• It is essential in traffic analysis that one develop a clear understanding of the

• Many non-transportation fields, such as the design and operation of industrial plants, retail
stores, service-oriented industries, and computer networks, must also give serious
consideration to the problem of queuing.
Dimensions of Queuing Models
• The purpose of traffic queuing models is to provide a means to estimate important
measures of highway performance, including vehicle delay and traffic queue lengths.

• Such estimates are critical to roadway design (the required length of left-turn bays and
the number of lanes at intersections) and traffic operations control, including the timing of
traffic signals at intersections.
Dimensions of Queuing Models
• Two possible distributions of the time between the arrival of successive vehicles were
considered:

• 1. Equal time intervals (derived from the assumption of uniform, deterministic arrivals)

• 2. Exponentially distributed time intervals (derived from the assumption of Poisson-

• Of particular interest is the distribution of the amount of time it takes a vehicle to depart for
example, the time to pass through an intersection at the beginning of a green signal, the
time required to pay a toll at a toll booth, or the time a driver takes before deciding to
proceed after stopping at a stop sign.

• As was the case for arrival patterns, given an average vehicle departure rate (denoted as
μ, in vehicles per unit time), the assumption of a deterministic or exponential distribution
of departure times is appropriate.
Dimensions of Queuing Models
• Another important aspect of queuing models is the number of available departure
channels.

• For most traffic applications only one departure channel will exist, such as a highway lane
or group of lanes passing through an intersection.

• However, multiple departure channels are encountered in some traffic applications, such
as at toll booths on turnpikes and at entrances to bridges.
Dimensions of Queuing Models
• The final necessary assumption relates to the queue discipline. In this regard, two options
have been popularized in the development of queuing models:

• first-in, first-out (FIFO), indicating that the first vehicle to arrive is the first to depart; and

• last-in, first-out (LIFO), indicating that the last vehicle to arrive is the first to depart.

• Three elements – arrival pattern/departure pattern/number of departure channels

• D/D/1, M/D/1, M/M/1, M/M/N

• D means deterministic: uniform distribution of time headways

• M means stochastic – exponentially distributed time headways