Module 3 - Advanced Order Flow Concepts
Module 3 - Advanced Order Flow Concepts
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Module 3
Advanced
Order Flow
Concepts
Disclaimer
Hidden trades and locations are a key aspect of understanding institutional
money flow. While retail traders focus on price action visible on their screens,
institutions operate beneath the surface, accumulating or distributing positions.
It is important to realize that the information displayed on the screen represents
only a fraction of the market activity. By analyzing order flow and identifying
things such as value areas, retail traders can identify institutional biases and
locate advantageous trade opportunities outside of the visible price action.
Sometimes it’s hard to know what happening in the footprint if all you have is a
footprint.
Accumulation?
Hidden orders can camouflage the trading flows of significant players in the
market and manipulate perceptions around true liquidity by other participants.
Understanding their influence improves reading real supply/demand.
Iceberg orders enable large traders to disguise their total interest and impact on
order flow. Being aware of their ability to obscure market participation and depth
helps build a more accurate picture.
On a footprint you can’t determine if there was an
iceberg since you are looking at the volume that
traded AFTER it traded.
From my own experience and talking to traders I know at banks, pretty much
any order over 100 contracts is iceberged in the ES. In lesser markets anything
over 25 contracts.
Traders who watch only price may perceive normal two-sided order flow
unaware of the hidden iceberg orders skewing the actual supply and demand
imbalance.
When orders are hidden, normal order flow and liquidity may appear balanced,
even while hidden orders create an imbalance in overall supply or demand.
I prefer to look at the volume traded and
determine the importance of the bids and offers
and how they are trading, knowing that icebergs
are prevalent.
Accepting that hidden liquidity exists allows traders to better contextualize
visible market flows and depth. What is seen on the DOM and price ladder
screens may not tell the whole story.
Taking into account hidden liquidity leads to healthier skepticism about current
prices rather than taking order flow at face value.
For example, hidden buying interest soaking up sell orders
can lead to a short-squeeze as offer liquidity is quickly
removed. Ever hear of trapped traders?
Sudden order imbalances or volatility can occur when hidden orders stop being
renewed or reach completion. Their impact is finally fully felt on price.
Look at the big offers going into the low.
What happened when it ended? Bounce.
Market correcting itself after
run up.
Consolidation and absorption are often confused, but they have different
outcomes; consolidation refers to a sideways market pattern, while absorption
refers to the type of activity in the market.
Consolidation and absorption are similar, but the difference lies in the volume of
transactions, with absorption indicating a release of pressure and a potential
rise in price.
Price Range: In absorption, buyers lift offers and encounter resistance, leading
to a limited price range. In consolidation, the market may extend the range but
often returns to retest the other side.
The key factors to consider when identifying absorption are high relative
volume, price point volatility, and initiative continuation. All three elements must
be present for a valid absorption scenario. Failure to meet these criteria
suggests a consolidation pattern instead.
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This concludes Module 3.