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TAREA CALSE (2)

The document presents demand projections for various months from April 2015 to June 2016 using linear, exponential, and logarithmic models, along with their respective percentage errors. It includes detailed monthly data on actual demand, projected values, and error rates for each model. Additionally, it provides sales data in M2 for the period from April 2013 to March 2018.

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lailacardenas89
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4 views10 pages

TAREA CALSE (2)

The document presents demand projections for various months from April 2015 to June 2016 using linear, exponential, and logarithmic models, along with their respective percentage errors. It includes detailed monthly data on actual demand, projected values, and error rates for each model. Additionally, it provides sales data in M2 for the period from April 2013 to March 2018.

Uploaded by

lailacardenas89
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Meses No mes Demanda Proyeccion Porcentaje error

Apr-15 1 156 98.7 36.8% LINEAL


May-15 2 108 149.9 38.8%
800
Jun-15 3 186 201.2 8.2%
Jul-15 4 242 252.5 4.3% 700
Aug-15 5 255 303.8 19.1% 600
f(x) = 51.2902097902098 x + 47.36363636363
Sep-15 6 357 355.1 0.5%
500
Oct-15 7 460 406.4 11.7%
Nov-15 8 479 457.7 4.5% 400
Dec-15 9 521 509.0 2.3% 300
Jan-16 10 553 560.3 1.3%
200
Feb-16 11 577 611.6 6.0%
Mar-16 12 675 662.8 1.8% 3.17% 100
Apr-16 13 714.1 0
0 2 4 6 8
May-16 14 765.4
Jun-16 15 816.7

EXPONENCIAL
Meses No mes Demanda Proyeccion Porcentaje error 800
Apr-15 1 156 139.7 10.46% f(x) = 119.440458284306 exp( 0.156646732907049
700
May-15 2 108 163.4 51.27%
Jun-15 3 186 191.1 2.72% 600

Jul-15 4 242 223.5 7.66% 500


Aug-15 5 255 261.3 2.49% 400
Sep-15 6 357 305.6 14.39%
300
Oct-15 7 460 357.5 22.29%
Nov-15 8 479 418.1 12.72% 200
Dec-15 9 521 488.9 6.16% 100
Jan-16 10 553 571.8 3.40%
0
Feb-16 11 577 668.8 15.90% 10.81% 0 2 4 6 8
Mar-16 12 675 782.1 15.87%
Apr-16 13 914.7
May-16 14 1,069.8
Jun-16 15 1,251.1

LOGARITMICA
Meses No mes Demanda Proyeccion Porcentaje error
800
Apr-15 1 156 3.12 98%
May-15 2 108 160.27 48% 700

Jun-15 3 186 252.20 36% 600


Jul-15 4 242 317.42 31% 500
f(x) = 226.72339732674 ln(x) + 3.1192355371068
Aug-15 5 255 368.01 44%
400
Sep-15 6 357 409.35 15%
Oct-15 7 460 444.30 3% 300

Nov-15 8 479 474.57 1% 200


Dec-15 9 521 501.27 4% 100
Jan-16 10 553 525.16 5%
0
Feb-16 11 577 546.77 5% 6.21% 0 2 4 6 8
Mar-16 12 675 566.50 16%
Apr-16 13 584.64
May-16 14 601.45
Jun-16 15 617.09

YAIMAL ALFREDO CARDENAS GUERRERO 122045


LINEAL Meses No mes Demanda
Apr-15 1 156
May-15 2 108
Jun-15 3 186
= 51.2902097902098 x + 47.3636363636363 Jul-15 4 242
Aug-15 5 255
Sep-15 6 357
Oct-15 7 460
Nov-15 8 479
Dec-15 9 521
Jan-16 10 553
Feb-16 11 577
Mar-16 12 675
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Apr-16 13
May-16 14
Jun-16 15

EXPONENCIAL

440458284306 exp( 0.156646732907049 x )

Meses No mes Demanda


Apr-15 1 156
May-15 2 108
Jun-15 3 186
Jul-15 4 242
4 6 8 10 12 14 Aug-15 5 255
Sep-15 6 357
Oct-15 7 460
Nov-15 8 479
Dec-15 9 521
Jan-16 10 553
Feb-16 11 577
LOGARITMICA Mar-16 12 675
Apr-16 13
May-16 14
Jun-16 15

6.72339732674 ln(x) + 3.11923553710687

4 6 8 10 12 14

122045
Proyeccion Porcentaje error
98.1 37.1% POTENCIAL
162.6 50.6%
218.6 17.5% 800
269.7 11.4% 700
317.4 24.5% 600
362.5 1.6% f(x) = 98.0893019640222 x^0.72955245227668
500
405.7 11.8%
447.2 6.6% 400

487.3 6.5% 300


526.3 4.8% 200
564.2 2.2%
100
601.2 10.9%
0
637.3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
672.7
707.5 6.2%

Proyeccion Porcentaje error


101.9 34.7% POLINOMICA
151.4 40.2% 800
201.3 8.2% 700
251.5 3.9% f(x) = 0.179070929070934 x² + 48.9622877122877 x + 52.7954545454548
600
302.1 18.5%
353.0 1.1% 500

400

300

200
700
f(x) = 0.179070929070934 x² + 48.9622877122877 x + 52.7954545454548
600

500

404.3 12.1% 400


456.0 4.8%
300
508.0 2.5%
200
560.3 1.3%
613.0 6.2% 100
666.1 1.3% 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

3.24%
14

48
48

12 14
Mes No Mes Ventas M2
Apr-13 1 494
May-13 2 107
Jun-13 3 57
Jul-13 4 357
Aug-13 5 185
Sep-13 6 672
Oct-13 7 402.5
Nov-13 8 140
Dec-13 9 828.5
Jan-14 10 97
Feb-14 11 203.5
Mar-14 12 887.5
Apr-14 13 522
May-14 14 860.5
Jun-14 15 1420.5
Jul-14 16 603.5
Aug-14 17 1677.5
Sep-14 18 1504
Oct-14 19 2160.5
Nov-14 20 1254
Dec-14 21 1116.5
Jan-15 22 454
Feb-15 23 442.5
Mar-15 24 181
Apr-15 25 891.5
May-15 26 1322
Jun-15 27 1321.875
Jul-15 28 1094.95
Aug-15 29 1100
Sep-15 30 1353
Oct-15 31 1254
Nov-15 32 1545.5
Dec-15 33 1254
Jan-16 34 554
Feb-16 35 562
Mar-16 36 874
Apr-16 37 987
May-16 38 1115
Jun-16 39 1379
Jul-16 40 1147
Aug-16 41 1387.5
Sep-16 42 1584
Oct-16 43 1587
Nov-16 44 1382.5
Dec-16 45 1547
Jan-17 46 204.5
Feb-17 47 306.5
Mar-17 48 987
Apr-17 49 1146.5
May-17 50 1252
Jun-17 51 1477
Jul-17 52 1571.5
Aug-17 53 874
Sep-17 54 1283.5
Oct-17 55 1254
Nov-17 56 1786
Dec-17 57 1159.5
Jan-18 58 214.5
Feb-18 59 771.5
Mar-18 60 1068.5

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