The impact of global warming on the automotive industry

Ralf Hannappel

Citation: AIP Conference Proceedings 1871, 060001 (2017); doi: 10.1063/1.4996530

View online: https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4996530
View Table of Contents: http://aip.scitation.org/toc/apc/1871/1
Published by the American Institute of Physics

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The Impact of Global Warming on the Automotive Industry

Ralf Hannappel
Freyburger Allee 20, 55283 Nierstein, Germany
[email protected]

Abstract. One cause of global warming of the earth’s atmosphere is the emission of human made gases (methane, CO2,
nitrous oxygen, etc.) into the environment. Of the total global CO2 emissions the transportation sector contributes to
about 14%. In order to control the emissions of the automotive sector, in all major countries (USA, Europe, China, Japan)
of the world, tough emissions targets were being set to reduce the vehicle traffic’s contribution of CO 2. These are derived
from the global climate conference’ target to limit the maximum temperature increase of the earth of 2 degrees Celsius
until 2100. In order to achieve these stringent targets the automotive industry will face a major change in its drivetrain. It
will move from combustion to electrical engines. The technical realization of these engines will most likely be battery
and fuel cell driven propulsion systems. In order to achieve that transition a major effort is required in 4 industrial areas,
i.e. growing electrical charging infrastructure, lowering battery cost, increasing the battery-electric vehicle ranges and
developing new environmental friendly hydrogen production methods.

INTRODUCTION
Global warming is the observed and projected increases in the average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and
oceans. The causes of global warming are manifold and caused by nature as well as mankind. One important
contributor to rising temperatures on our planet is the emission of man-made CO2.

FIGURE 1: Man made gases contributing to global warming [1].

There are many different contributors to these CO2 emissions. The biggest three are electricity and heat
production with 25%, agriculture, forestry and other land use with 24%, and industry with 21%. The transportation
sector contributes with 14% to the total global CO2 emissions. It encompasses road, rail, air and marine
transportation. It is important to understand that 95% of the world’s transportation energy involves burning fossil

Structure, Function and Dynamics from nm to Gm

AIP Conf. Proc. 1871, 060001-1–060001-6; doi: 10.1063/1.4996530
Published by AIP Publishing. 978-0-7354-1551-5/$30.00

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fuels, largely gasoline and diesel. The road emissions make roughly 50% of the transport sector, resulting in 7% of
the global CO2 emissions. Although this is a relatively low number there is a lot of focus to restrict emissions of this
sector.

We are concentrating in this paper on the road vehicles and specifically on the light vehicles, i.e. passenger and
not commercial vehicles. Fig. 2 shows the breakdown of the number of vehicles (passenger and commercial) in the
„big 6“ countries (China, USA, Europe, Japan, Russia, India).

FIGURE 2: On transportation the „Big 6“ make up ≈70% of all registered vehicles globally in calendar year 2013 (1.2 billion
total) [2].

“Big 6” thereby stands for those countries / continents that make up the 6 most number of vehicles worldwide.

TARGET SETTING
In order to reduce the CO2 emissions governments around the world are setting ambitious targets for the
emission of CO2 for road vehicles. Figure 3 shows the targets over time for passenger vehicles. Note that there are
also targets for commercial vehicles, which we do not consider in this paper. They are facing similar time dependent
reduction targets.

FIGURE 3: Total passenger car fleet averaged gram CO2/km (** normalized to NEDC = New European Drive Cycle)

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 Important targets set for the automotive industry are an annual fleet average value of 95 grams CO2/km emission
(e.g. Europe 95% of all registrations in 2020, 100% as of 2012) and possibly 10 grams CO2/km in 2050 (note that
the latter is at the moment not finally decided but is still under discussion). The fleet average is calculated using the
mass and sales volume of the automotive producer. Therefore the target value for each manufacturer varies from the
95gr target. Manufacturers with higher mass vehicles will have a slightly higher target, those with lighter vehicles a
slightly lower target.

The development of European CO2 emissions is yearly being monitored and published by the European
Environment Agency (EEA) [3]. To enforce this the automotive OEM’s (Original Equipment Manufacturer) in
Europe will have to pay heavy emission premiums in case they miss their target. Those - call it “fines” for the
moment – are calculated using a simple formula. Per fleet averaged missed gram of CO2, starting from the 4th gram
of deviation the fine is 95€. (Note that below 4 gram CO2 deviation from the target the “fines” go down in steps).

To give one example: If an automotive OEM misses the target by 4 grams and sells 1 million vehicles per year,
the premium to pay is (4 ˗ 3) x 1 mil x 95€ = almost 100 million € per year.

For illustration of the severity of the targets here are some numbers: A fleet average of 95 grams CO2/km
corresponds to a fuel consumption of around 4l/100 km or 62 mpg (miles per US gallon). Daimler in Europe for
instance, has still to reduce emissions by slightly more than 20 grams of CO2 versus 2015 status.

ELECTRIFICATION

Using regular combustion engines in vehicles and with today’s sales mix of gasoline and diesel along with
today’s or near future technologies it will not be possible to meet these targets. In order to get the fleet average on
CO2 emissions down the electrification of the drivetrain of future vehicles is a necessity.

At the moment there are 4 different variants of powertrain electrification (Fig. 4): Hybrid electric vehicles
(HEV), plug-in hybrids (PHEV) and range extender vehicles (EREV), battery electric vehicles (BEV) and fuel cell
electric vehicles (FCEV). Figure 4 shows the corresponding drivetrains with typical order of magnitude tailpipe
emissions. “Tailpipe” does not include vehicle and/or electricity production related emissions.

FIGURE 4: Different powertrain variants including average CO2 tailpipe emissions.

Due to the fact that electric vehicles have zero tailpipe emissions they are considered as the only solution and as
a key enabler to reach the stringent CO2 targets in the countries mentioned above.

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 The governing question within the industry, however, is which of those four electric drivetrains in Fig. 5 are the
future powertrain as heavy investments and cost are required to develop vehicles with each and every possible
propulsion variant.

THE YEAR 2050

McKinsey [3] projected (Fig. 5) – based upon a range of possible calendar year 2050 CO2 targets – which of the
vehicle propulsion systems will become dominant. They investigated scenarios with 10 grams (0.4 l gasoline
consumption per 100 km), 40 grams (1.6 l/100 km), or 95 grams (4 l/100 km) fleet averaged CO2 target for 2050
respectively. In all cases pure combustion engines (ICE) will vanish over time. On the other hand, pure electric
drivetrains will only pertain if the target will be set at 10 gr CO2/km. In less stringent targets set combustion engines
will be combined with batteries in the PHEV/EREV (called REEV [Range Extended Electric Vehicles] in
McKinsey’s paper) case.

FIGURE 5: McKinsey’s outlook of which powertrain in EV’s will be the governing one depending on the CO2 fleet averaged
target in 2050 [3] (Reprinted with permission).

ISSUES

In order to achieve a considerable penetration of electric vehicles there remain several major issues to be tackled
and solved. Those are:

1. Range of electric vehicles (EV’s) must grow into the order of today’s combustion engines, i.e. up to 1,000
km of real range to deliver customer acceptable ranges.
2. Charging infrastructure (“gas stations for EV’s”) must grow into the same order of magnitude as today’s
fuel gas stations.
3. Cost of the battery and fuel cell systems must come down drastically, so that the overall cost and therefore
price to pay comes close to today’s combustion engine vehicles.
4. Hydrogen needs to be produced using ecology friendly production techniques. Less CO2 and less energy
consuming.

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 All of the above are currently being worked on in industry and research groups in order to cope with the
challenge of the future.

OUTLOOK

Looking at the growth rate of electric vehicles in Fig. 6 (new registrations mean the cars that are newly registered
in that year; the number of total vehicles is higher) in the last couple of years shows that, although their number is
still small compared to combustion engines, it is steadily growing. In 2015 only 0.1% of all 1.2 billion vehicles
globally are electrically propelled. Leading in number of electric vehicles are China and the US – the latter due to
the ZEV (Zero Emission Vehicle legislation) and the former due to willingness of the Chinese government to clean
China’s large cities air pollution.

FIGURE 6: Global growth of electric vehicles (BEV, PHEV) over calendar years in new registrations over the last few years [5]
(Reprinted with permission).

SUMMARY

One important enabler of keeping the global warming limited is – besides others – the need of reducing the CO2
emissions from vehicles. This can only happen via the transition from combustion to electric vehicles (EV’s).
Although EV’s will become the primary propulsion system of the future due to the enforcement of stringent CO 2
emissions regulations worldwide, combustion engines will very probably still be visible until the year 2050. Those,
however, are expected to be only regionally relevant, e.g. in third world countries where the transition process to
EV’s will be slower than in those continents with tough CO2 targets on vehicles.

REFERENCES

1. United States Environmental Protection Agency, citing results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPPC) (2014); link: https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data
2. International organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, Paris, France (2013); link: http://www.oica.net/wp-
content/uploads//total-inuse-2013.pdf
3. EEA report No 27/2016: Monitoring CO2 emissions from new passenger cars and vans 2015 (2016);
http://europe.autonews.com/assets/PDF/CA1083161216.PDF
4. McKinsey BOOST! Study (2011);
link: http://actions-incitatives.ifsttar.fr/fileadmin/uploads/recherches/geri/PFI_VE/pdf/McKinsey_boost.pdf

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5. ZSW (Zentrum für Sonnenenergie und Wasserstoff-Forschung Baden-Württemberg) Presseinformation 05/2016
(2016); link: https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2016/pi05-2016-ZSW-
ZahlenElektromobilitaet_01.pdf

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