THE OPEN UNIVERSITY OF SRI LANKA

DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL & COMPUTER ENGINEERING

ECX7432-POWER SYSTEMS PLANNING OPERATION AND CONTROL
BACHELOR OF TECHNOLOGY HONOURS IN ENGINEERING
ACADEMIC YEAR – 2021/2022 Model answer for Assignment-1
1. a. Daily Load pattern of industry “OUSL”
kW
42

15

10

Shift-1 Shift-2 Shift-3

Hrs.
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6

b. Annual energy consumption = {(42x6)+(15x2)+(42x6)+(10x2)+(42x6)+(15x2)}365

= 305,140 kWh.

c. Annual Energy Cost =

{(42x6)+(15x2)+(42x4)+(10x2)+(42x6)+(15x1)}365x6.50+{(42x2)+(15x1)}365x14.70
= 2,279,717/= Rs.
Maximum demand = (42/0.8) = 52.5 kVA
Therefore, annual maximum demand charge = 52.5x380x12 = 239,400 Rs./year
Fixed charge = 800x12 = 9600 Rs./year
Total cost = 9600+239,400+2,279,717 Rs./year
= 2,528,717 Rs./year
Average prize/unit = 8.29 Rs/kWh

d. Savings due to power factor improvement

[ (42/0.8)-(42/0.92)]x380x12 = 31,226 Rs/annum

e. Advance the working shift schedule by one hour

Shift left by one hour
kW
42

Peak tariff

15

10

Shift-1 Shift-2 Shift-3

Hrs.
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6

f. The cost of energy owing to new shift schedule

= [{(42x6)+(15x2)+(42x5)+(10x2)}+(42x6)] 365x6.50+{(42x1)+(15x2)} 365x14.70
= 1,812,590 + 386,316 = 2,198,906
Therefore, Total savings = 31,226 + (2,279,717-2,198,906) = 112,037 Rs.
2021/2022-EEX7432-Assignment-1 Page [1] of [5] Lalith A. Samaliarachchi
2. a. 1. F.O. R for 200 MW unit
=[(15 × 24)/{3000 + (15 × 24)} + (16 × 44)/{4000 + (16 × 44)} + (14 × 47.5)/{2760 + (14 × 47.5)}]/3 =
0.1
2. F.O. R for 100 MW unit
=[(12 × 32)/{7400 + (12 × 32)} + (12 × 36)/{7200 + (12 × 36)} + (12 × 27.2)/{7200 + (12 × 27.2)}]/3 =
0.15

b. 1. Load Duration Curve Demand

MW
400

Assumption: 300

Two curves can be approximated

as two straight lines
100

Area under original LDC is Time

6900 MWh/Day 0 6h 18h 24h

2. Dispatching 200 MW Unit-1 to the load curve as per the merit order loading
First LDC Second LDC Remaining Load Duration Curve
Load DUR Load DUR*0.1 Load-200 DUR*0.9 Load 1st 2nd Combined
400 0 400 0.0 200 0 400 0.0 0 0
300 6 300 0.6 100 5.4 300 0.6 0 0.6
300 18 300 1.8 100 16.2 300 1.8 0 1.8
100 24 100 2.4 0 21.6 200 2.1 0 2.1
Demand
0 24 0 2.4 100 2.4 5.4 7.8
100 2.4 16.2 18.6
0 2.4 21.6 24

Area under the RLDC (combined LDC) curve = 2850 MWh/Day

MW
400

300

200

100

0 0.6 1.8 2.1 7.8 Time 18.6 24

▪ Therefore, units served by 1st 200 MW unit = 6900-2850 = 4050 MWh/day

▪ Plant factor of the 1st unit would be (4050/4800) = 0.84
▪ Cost of operation = 20 x 4050000 = 81 MLKR/Day
Dispatching 200 MW Unit-2 to the load curve as per the merit order loading
First LDC Second LDC Remaining Load Duration Curve
Load DUR Load DUR*0.1 Load-200 DUR*0.9 Load 1st 2nd Combined
400 0 400 0.0 200 0 400 0.0 0 0
300 0.6 300 0.06 100 0.54 300 0.06 0 0.06
300 1.8 300 0.18 100 1.62 300 0.18 0 0.18
200 2.1 200 0.21 0 1.89 200 0.21 0 0.21
100 7.8 100 0.78 100 0.78 0.54 1.32
100 18.6 100 1.86 100 1.86 1.62 3.48
0 24 0 2.4 0 2.4 1.89 4.29

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 Area under the RLDC (combined LDC) curve = 487.5 MWh/Day
MW
400

300

200

100

0 0.06 0.18 0.21 1.32 Time 3.48 4.29

▪ Therefore, units served by 2nd 200 MW unit = 2850-487.5 = 2362.5 MWh/day

▪ Plant factor of the 1st unit would be (2362.5/4800) = 0.49
▪ Cost of operation = 20 x 2362500 = 47.25 MLKR/Day
Dispatching 100 MW Unit-3 to the load curve as per the merit order loading
First LDC Second LDC Rem. Load Duration Curve
Load DUR Load DUR*0.15 Load-200 DUR*0.85 Load 1st 2nd Combined
400 0 400 0.0 200 0 400 0.0 0 0
300 0.06 300 0.009 100 0.051 300 0.009 0 0.009
300 0.18 300 0.027 100 0.153 300 0.027 0 0.027
200 0.21 200Demand 0.0315 0 0.1785 200 0.0315 0 0.0315
100 1.32 100 0.198 100 0.198 0.051 0.249
100 3.48 100 0.522 100 0.522 0.153 0.675
0 4.29 0 0.6435 0 0.6435 0.1785 0.822

Area under the RLDC (combined LDC) curve = 92.25 MWh/Day

MW
400

300

200

100

0 0.009 0.027 0.0315 0.249 Time 0.675 0.822

▪ Therefore, units served by 100 MW unit = 487.5-92.25 = 395.25 MWh/day

▪ Plant factor of the 3rd unit would be (395.25/4800) = 0.16
• Cost of operation = 20 x 395250 = 7.9 MLKR/Day
3. LOLP = 0.03 p.u. (0.822/24)
4. Energy not served = 92.25 MWh/day
5. If you carefully see the probability distribution of new 400 MW generator data, it is same
as the probability distribution of 2-200 MW two generators, and they are as follows:

(p1+q1)(p2+q2) where p = availability q =(1-p) = unavailability

Substitute and see; you will get (0.9+0.1) (0.9+0.1) = 0.81 + 0.18 + 0.01 =1.0

Hence, if one replaces 2-200 MW generators with 1-400 MW generator final probability
distribution will be the same. This means that the LOLP and the expected system unserved

2021/2022-EEX7432-Assignment-1 Page [3] of [5] Lalith A. Samaliarachchi

 energy also will not get modified. However, the production cost will change owing to the
modified incremental cost as follows:

Energy served by two-200 MW generators (old case) = 6,412.5 MWh/Day

Total production cost of two-200 MW generators = 128.25 MLKR/Day

Energy served by new 400 MW generator (new case) = 6,412.5 MWh/Day

Production cost of new 400 MW generator = 76.95 MLKR/Day

3. a) Calculation of 10-year compound growth rate:

2011 demand = 10023 2020 demand = 14286

1 1
𝐷𝑛 𝑛−1 14286 9
𝑟 % = [( 1 ) − 1] × 100 𝑟%= [(10023) − 1] × 100
𝐷

Substituting the above values, we get r = 4 %

b) 1. Fitting the Sales = a + b (time) linear profile to given data:

10 10 25 25

∑ 𝑋𝑖 = 20,155; ∑ 𝑌𝑖 = 123,174; ∑ 𝑋𝑖2 = 40,622,485; ∑ 𝑋𝑖 𝑌𝑖 = 248,303,579

𝑖=1 𝑖=1 𝑖=1 𝑖=1
 n n n n   n 
  y i  xi −  xi  xi y i 
2 n n

 i =1 i =1  

n  x y
i i −  x i i  y

Y= a + b.X of the form a = 
i =1 i =1
2 & b= i =1 i =1 i =1

 n
 n
   
2
n  xi −   xi   
n n
n  xi −   xi  
2 2
  
 i =1  i =1    i =1  i =1  

a = -1,120,808.915 and b = 562.206

Therefore, the equation fits Sales = -1,120,808.915 + 562.206 (Time)

2. Fitting the Sales = Sales = e ( k1 .Time + k2)

exponential profile to given data: Here lne (sales) = k2 + k1(Time)
y = k2 + k1(time); where y = lne (sales)

Rearranging the data in logarithmic form and re-computing the values we get:
10 10 10 10

∑ 𝑋𝑖 = 20,155; ∑ 𝑌𝑖 = 94,0974; ∑ 𝑋𝑖2 = 40,622,485; ∑ 𝑋𝑖 𝑌𝑖 = 189,657.10

𝑖=1 𝑖=1 𝑖=1 𝑖=1

k2 = -83.3652 and k1 = 0.046031

Therefore, The equation fits Sales = e[-83.3652+0.046031(time)]

2021/2022-EEX7432-Assignment-1 Page [4] of [5] Lalith A. Samaliarachchi

 n

exp lained var iation

(y e
i − y) 2
c) R 2 = = i =1
n
However, in this example
(y
total var iation
i − y) 2

i =1

For Sales = Sales = -1,120,808.915 + 562.206 (Time); Y =12,317.4 and

 (1 − R 2 )
𝑅 2 = 0.96; Adjusted R 2 = R 2 − = 0.9564
N − − 1

For Sales = e[-83.3652+0.046031(time)]

 (1 − R 2 )
𝑅 2 = 0.96; Adjusted R 2 = R 2 − = 0.9589
N − − 1
d) Since both the profiles gives better fitness where R2 lies between 0.9 to 1.0, we accept both
models.

e) Electricity forecast sales for year 2021 using three models.

Si. Co. Gr. Mod linear model Exp. Model

2021 14,859.7 15,409.4 15,732

f) Because utility may have used zone/area wise data with econometric models segregated into
various such as residential, commercial, agricultural, and industrial sectors. Also, note that the
sales in 2020 is less than sales in 2019 may be due to corona pandemic situation, the industrial
sector was at stand still situation most of the time.

g) Trend analysis and extrapolation only consider time as the determinant of electricity demand.
It cannot give due consideration to economic factors, population, structural changes in the
economy and the customer mix, efficiency improvement of equipment etc.

To avoid the limitations, one can use either econometric method or the end-use method.

i) Econometric methods first identify significant variables that drive the demand, including
per capita income, price, GDP, GNP, and population growth. Hence, they can examine
the influence of these factors and their future, in the preparation of the forecast.

ii) End use methods, in addition to the above, examine the changes in energy use at equipment
level by maintaining information about the stock of appliances with the customers, and then
examine the impacts of trends in their efficiency improvements

1. Model answer to this question is developed by a soft wear and will be individually evaluated.

2021/2022-EEX7432-Assignment-1 Page [5] of [5] Lalith A. Samaliarachchi