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 Data Mining
Using
SAS Applications

George Fernandez

CHAPMAN & HALL/CRC

A CRC Press Company
Boca Raton London New York Washington, D.C.

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Fernandez, George, 1952-

Data mining using SAS applications / George Fernandez.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 1-58488-345-6 (alk. paper)
1. Commercial statistics--Computer programs. 2. SAS (Computer file) I. Title.

HF1017 .F476 2002

005.3′042--dc21 2002034917

This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reprinted material
is quoted with permission, and sources are indicated. A wide variety of references are listed. Reasonable
efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the authors and the publisher cannot
assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or for the consequences of their use.

Neither this book nor any part may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic
or mechanical, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or by any information storage or
retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publisher.

The consent of CRC Press LLC does not extend to copying for general distribution, for promotion, for
creating new works, or for resale. Specific permission must be obtained in writing from CRC Press LLC
for such copying.

Direct all inquiries to CRC Press LLC, 2000 N.W. Corporate Blvd., Boca Raton, Florida 33431.

Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are
used only for identification and explanation, without intent to infringe.

Visit the CRC Press Web site at www.crcpress.com

© 2003 by Chapman & Hall/CRC

No claim to original U.S. Government works

International Standard Book Number 1-58488-345-6
Library of Congress Card Number 2002034917
Printed in the United States of America 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0
Printed on acid-free paper
Preface

Objective
The objective of this book is to introduce data mining concepts, describe methods
in data mining from sampling to decision trees, demonstrate the features of user-
friendly data mining SAS tools, and, above all, allow readers to download data
mining SAS macro-call files and help them perform complete data mining. The
user-friendly SAS macro approach integrates the statistical and graphical analysis
tools available in SAS systems and offers complete data mining solutions without
writing SAS program codes or using the point-and-click approach. Step-by-step
instructions for using SAS macros and interpreting the results are provided in each
chapter. Thus, by following the step-by-step instructions and downloading the user-
friendly SAS macros described in the book, data analysts can perform complete
data mining analysis quickly and effectively.

Why Use SAS Software?

SAS Institute, the industry leader in analytical and decision support solutions, offers
a comprehensive data mining solution that allows users to explore large quantities
of data and discover relationships and patterns that lead to intelligent decision
making. Enterprise Miner, SAS Institute’s data mining software, offers an integrated
environment for businesses that need to conduct comprehensive data mining. SAS
provides additional data mining capabilities such as neural networks, memory-based
reasoning, and association/sequence discovery that are not presented in this book.
These additional features can be obtained through Enterprise Miner.
Including complete SAS codes in this book for performing comprehensive data
mining solutions would not be very effective because a majority of business and
statistical analysts are not experienced SAS programmers. Quick results from data
mining are not feasible, as many hours of modifying code and debugging program

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

errors are required when analysts are required to work with SAS program codes.
An alternative to the point-and-click menu interface modules and the high-priced
SAS Enterprise Miner is the user-friendly SAS macro applications for performing
several data mining tasks that are included in this book. This macro approach
integrates statistical and graphical tools available in SAS systems and provides user-
friendly data analysis tools that allow data analysts to complete data mining tasks
quickly, without writing SAS programs, by running the SAS macros in the back-
ground.

Coverage
The following types of analyses can be performed using the user-friendly SAS
macros:

䡲 Converting PC databases to SAS data

䡲 Sampling techniques to create training and validation samples
䡲 Exploratory graphical techniques
䡲 Univariate analysis of continuous response
䡲 Frequency data analysis for categorical data
䡲 Unsupervised learning
䡲 Principal component
䡲 Factor and cluster analysis
䡲 k-mean cluster analysis
䡲 Bi-plot display
䡲 Supervised learning: prediction
䡲 Multiple regression models
䡲 Partial and VIF plots, plots for checking data and model problems
䡲 Lift charts
䡲 Scoring
䡲 Model validation techniques
䡲 Logistic regression
䡲 Partial delta logit plots, ROC curves false positive/negative plots
䡲 Lift charts
䡲 Model validation techniques
䡲 Supervised learning: classification
䡲 Discriminant analysis
䡲 Canonical discriminant analysis — bi-plots
䡲 Parametric discriminant analysis
䡲 Nonparametric discriminant analysis
䡲 Model validation techniques
䡲 CHAID — decisions tree methods
䡲 Model validation techniques

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

Why Do I Believe the Book Is Needed?
During the last decade, there has been an explosion in the field of data warehousing
and data mining for knowledge discovery. The challenge of understanding data has
led to the development of a new data mining tool. Data mining books that are
currently available mainly address data mining principles but provide no instructions
and explanations to carry out a data mining project. Also, many data analysts are
interested in expanding their expertise in the field of data mining and are looking
for “how-to” books on data mining that do not require expensive software such
as Enterprise Miner. Business school instructors are currently incorporating data
mining into their MBA curriculum and are looking for “how-to” books on data
mining using available software. This book on data mining using SAS macro
applications easily fills the gap and complements the existing data mining book
market.

Key Features of the Book

䡲 No SAS programming experience is required. This essential “how-to” guide is
especially suitable for data analysts to practice data mining techniques for
knowledge discovery. Thirteen user-friendly SAS macros to perform data
mining are described, and instructions are given in regard to downloading
the macro-call file and running the macros from the website that has been
set up for this book. No experience in modifying SAS macros or program-
ming with SAS is needed to run these macros.
䡲 Complete analysis can be performed in less than 10 minutes. Complete predictive
modeling, including data exploration, model fitting, assumption checks,
validation, and scoring new data, can be performed on SAS datasets in less
than 10 minutes.
䡲 Expensive SAS Enterprise Miner is not required. The user-friendly macros work
with the standard SAS modules: BASE, STAT, GRAPH, and IML. No
additional SAS modules are required.
䡲 No experience in SAS ODS is required. Options are included in the SAS macros
for saving data mining output and graphics in RTF, HTML, and PDF
format using the new ODS features of SAS.
䡲 More than 100 figures are included. These data mining techniques stress the
use of visualization for a thorough study of the structure of data and to
check the validity of statistical models fitted to data. These figures allow
readers to visualize the trends and patterns present in their databases.

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

Textbook or a Supplementary Lab Guide
This book is suitable for adoption as a textbook for a statistical methods course
in data mining and data analysis. This book provides instructions and tools for
performing complete exploratory statistical method, regression analysis, multivari-
ate methods, and classification analysis quickly. Thus, this book is ideal for graduate-
level statistical methods courses that use SAS software. Some examples of potential
courses include:

䡲 Advanced business statistics

䡲 Research methods
䡲 Advanced data analysis

Potential Audience
䡲 This book is suitable for data analysts who need to apply data mining
techniques using existing SAS modules for successful data mining, without
investing a lot of time to research and buy new software products or to
learn how to use additional software.
䡲 Experienced SAS programmers can utilize the SAS macro source codes
available in the companion CD-ROM and customize it to fit in their
business goals and different computing environments.
䡲 Graduate students in business and the natural and social sciences can
successfully complete data analysis projects quickly using these SAS macros.
䡲 Large business enterprises can use data mining SAS macros in pilot studies
involving the feasibility of conducting a successful data mining endeavor,
before making a significant investment in full-scale data mining.
䡲 Finally, any SAS users who want to impress their supervisors can do so
with quick and complete data analysis presented in PDF, RTF, or HTML
formats.

Additional Resources
䡲 Book website: A website has been set up at
http://www.ag.unr.edu/gf/dm.html
Users can find information regarding downloading the sample data files
used in the book and the necessary SAS macro-call files. Readers are
encouraged to visit this site for information on any errors in the book,
SAS macro updates, and links for additional resources.
䡲 Companion CD-ROM: For experienced SAS programmers, a companion CD-
ROM is available for purchase that contains sample datasets, macro-call

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

 files, and the actual SAS macro source code files. This information allows
programmers to modify the SAS code to suit their needs and to use it on
various platforms. An active Internet connection is not required to run the
SAS macros when the companion CD-ROM is available.

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

Acknowledgments

I am indebted to many individuals who have directly and indirectly contributed to

the development of this book. Many thanks to my graduate advisor, Prof. Creighton
Miller, Jr., at Texas A&M University, and to Prof. Rangesan Narayanan at the
University of Nevada–Reno, both of whom in one way or another have positively
influenced my career all these years. I am grateful to my colleagues and my former
and current students who have presented me with consulting problems over the
years that have stimulated me to develop this book and the accompanying SAS
macros. I would also like to thank the University of Nevada–Reno College of
Agriculture–Biotechnology–Natural Resources, Nevada Agricultural Experimental
Station, and the University of Nevada Cooperative Extension for their support
during the time I spent writing the book and developing the SAS macros.
I am also grateful to Ann Dougherty for reviewing the initial book proposal,
as well as Andrea Meyer and Suchitra Injati for reviewing some parts of the material.
I have received constructive comments from many CRC Press anonymous review-
ers on this book, and their advice has greatly improved this book. I would like to
acknowledge the contributions of the CRC Press staff, from the conception to the
completion of this book. My special thanks go to Jasmin Naim, Helena Redshaw,
Nadja English, and Naomi Lynch of the CRC Press publishing team for their
tremendous efforts to produce this book in a timely fashion. A special note of
thanks to Kirsty Stroud for finding me in the first place and suggesting that I work
on this book, thus providing me with a chance to share my work with fellow SAS
users. I would also like to thank the SAS Institute for providing me with an
opportunity to learn about this powerful software over the past 23 years and
allowing me to share my SAS knowledge with other users.
I owe a great debt of gratitude to my family for their love and support as well
as their great sacrifice during the last 12 months. I cannot forget to thank my dad,
Pancras Fernandez, and my late grandpa, George Fernandez, for their love and
support, which helped me to take on challenging projects and succeed. I would
like to thank my son, Ryan Fernandez, for helping me create the table of contents.

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

A very special thanks goes to my daughter, Ramya Fernandez, for reviewing this
book from beginning to end and providing me with valuable suggestions. Finally,
I would like to thank the most important person in my life, my wife, Queency
Fernandez, for her love, support, and encouragement, which gave me the strength
to complete this project within the deadline.

George Fernandez

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

Contents

1 Data Mining: A Gentle Introduction

1.1 Introduction
1.2 Data Mining: Why Now?
1.3 Benefits of Data Mining
1.4 Data Mining: Users
1.5 Data Mining Tools
1.6 Data Mining Steps
1.7 Problems in the Data Mining Process
1.8 SAS Software: The Leader in Data Mining
1.9 User-Friendly SAS Macros for Data Mining
1.10 Summary
References
Suggested Reading and Case Studies

2 Preparing Data for Data Mining

2.1 Introduction
2.2 Data Requirements in Data Mining
2.3 Ideal Structures of Data for Data Mining
2.4 Understanding the Measurement Scale of Variables
2.5 Entire Database vs. Representative Sample
2.6 Sampling for Data Mining
2.7 SAS Applications Used in Data Preparation
2.8 Summary
References
Suggested Reading

3 Exploratory Data Analysis

3.1 Introduction
3.2 Exploring Continuous Variables
3.3 Data Exploration: Categorical Variables
3.4 SAS Macro Applications Used in Data Exploration
3.5 Summary

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

 References
Suggested Reading

4 Unsupervised Learning Methods

4.1 Introduction
4.2 Applications of Unsupervised Learning Methods
4.3 Principal Component Analysis
4.4 Exploratory Factor Analysis
4.5 Disjoint Cluster Analysis
4.6 Bi-Plot Display of PCA, EFA, and DCA Results
4.7 PCA and EFA Using SAS Macro FACTOR
4.8 Disjoint Cluster Analysis Using SAS Macro DISJCLUS
4.9 Summary
References
Suggested Reading

5 Supervised Learning Methods: Prediction

5.1 Introduction
5.2 Applications of Supervised Predictive Methods
5.3 Multiple Linear Regression Modeling
5.4 Binary Logistic Regression Modeling
5.5 Multiple Linear Regression Using SAS Macro REGDIAG
5.6 Lift Chart Using SAS Macro LIFT
5.7 Scoring New Regression Data Using the SAS
Macro RSCORE
5.8 Logistic Regression Using SAS Macro LOGISTIC
5.9 Scoring New Logistic Regression Data Using
the SAS Macro LSCORE
5.10 Case Study 1: Modeling Multiple Linear Regression
5.11 Case Study 2: Modeling Multiple Linear
Regression with Categorical Variables
5.12 Case Study 3: Modeling Binary Logistic Regression
5.13 Summary
References

6 Supervised Learning Methods: Classification

6.1 Introduction
6.2 Discriminant Analysis
6.3 Stepwise Discriminant Analysis
6.4 Canonical Discriminant Analysis
6.5 Discriminant Function Analysis
6.6 Applications of Discriminant Analysis
6.7 Classification Tree Based on CHAID
6.8 Applications of CHAID
6.9 Discriminant Analysis Using SAS Macro DISCRIM
6.10 Decison Tree Using SAS Macro CHAID
6.11 Case Study 1: CDA and Parametric DFA
6.12 Case Study 2: Nonparametric DFA

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

 6.13 Case Study 3: Classification Tree Using CHAID
6.14 Summary
References
Suggested Reading

7 Emerging Technologies in Data Mining

7.1 Introduction
7.2 Data Warehousing
7.3 Artificial Neural Network Methods
7.4 Market Basket Association Analysis
7.5 SAS Software: The Leader in Data Mining
7.6 Summary
References
Further Reading
Appendix: Instructions for Using the SAS Macros

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

Chapter 1

Data Mining: A Gentle

Introduction

1.1 Introduction
Data mining, or knowledge discovery in databases (KDD), is a powerful informa-
tion technology tool with great potential for extracting previously unknown and
potentially useful information from large databases. Data mining automates the
process of finding relationships and patterns in raw data and delivers results that
can be either utilized in an automated decision support system or assessed by
decision makers. Many successful organizations practice data mining for intelligent
decision-making.1 Data mining allows the extraction of nuggets of knowledge from
business data that can help enhance customer relationship management (CRM)2
and can help estimate the return on investment (ROI).3 Using powerful analytical
techniques, data mining enables institutions to turn raw data into valuable infor-
mation to gain a critical competitive advantage
With data mining, the possibilities are endless. Although data mining applica-
tions are popular among forward-thinking businesses, other disciplines that main-
tain large databases could reap the same benefits from properly carried out data
mining. Some of the potential applications of data mining include characterizations
of genes in animal and plant genomics, clustering and segmentation in remote
sensing of satellite image data, and predictive modeling in wildfire incidence data-
bases.
The purpose of this chapter is to introduce data mining concepts, provide
some examples of data mining applications, list the most commonly used data
mining techniques, and briefly discuss the data mining applications available in

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

the SAS software. For a thorough discussion of data mining concepts, methods,
and applications, see Two Crows Corporation4 and Berry and Linoff.5,6

1.2 Data Mining: Why Now?

1.2.1 Availability of Large Databases and Data Warehousing
Data mining derives its name from the fact that analysts search for valuable
information among gigabytes of huge databases. For the past two decades, we have
seen an explosive rate of growth in the amount of data being stored in an electronic
format. The increase in the use of electronic data gathering devices such as point-
of-sale, web logging, or remote sensing devices has contributed to this explosion
of available data. The amount of data accumulated each day by various businesses
and scientific and governmental organizations around the world is daunting.
Data warehousing collects data from many different sources, reorganizes it, and
stores it within a readily accessible repository that can be utilized for productive
decision making using data mining. A data warehouse (DW) should support rela-
tional, hierarchical, and multidimensional database management systems and is
designed specifically to meet the needs of data mining. A DW can be loosely defined
as any centralized data repository that makes it possible to extract archived oper-
ational data and overcome inconsistencies between different data formats. Thus,
data mining and knowledge discovery from large databases become feasible and
productive with the development of cost-effective data warehousing.

1.2.2 Price Drop in Data Storage and Efficient Computer

Processing
Data warehousing has become easier and more efficient and cost effective as data
processing and database development have become less expensive. The need for
improved and effective computer processing can now be met in a cost-effective
manner with parallel multiprocessor computer technology. In addition to the recent
enhancement of exploratory graphical statistical methods, the introduction of new
machine learning methods based on logic programming, artificial intelligence, and
genetic algorithms opened the doors for productive data mining. When data mining
tools are implemented on high-performance, parallel-processing systems, they can
analyze massive databases in minutes. Faster processing means that users can auto-
matically experiment with more models to understand complex data. The high speed
makes it more practical for users to analyze huge quantities of data.

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

1.2.3 New Advancements in Analytical Methodology
Data mining algorithms embody techniques that have existed for at least 10 years
but have only recently been implemented as mature, reliable, understandable tools
that consistently outperform older methods. Advanced analytical models and algo-
rithms, such as data visualization and exploration, segmentation and clustering,
decision trees, neural networks, memory-based reasoning, and market basket anal-
ysis, provide superior analytical depth. Thus, quality data mining is now feasible
with the availability of advanced analytical solutions.

1.3 Benefits of Data Mining

For businesses that use data mining effectively, the payoffs can be huge. By applying
data mining effectively, businesses can fully utilize data about customers’ buying
patterns and behavior and gain a greater understanding of customers’ motivations
to help reduce fraud, forecast resource use, increase customer acquisition, and curb
customer attrition. Successful implementation of data mining techniques sweeps
through databases and identifies previously hidden patterns in one step. An example
of pattern discovery is the analysis of retail sales data to identify seemingly unrelated
products that are often purchased together. Other pattern discovery applications
include detecting fraudulent credit card transactions and identifying anomalous data
that could represent data entry keying errors. Some of the specific benefits asso-
ciated with successful data mining include:

䡲 Increase customer acquisition and retention.

䡲 Uncover and reduce fraud (determining if a particular transaction is out of
the normal range of a person’s activity and flagging that transaction for
verification).
䡲 Improve production quality and minimize production losses in manufac-
turing.
䡲 Increase up-selling (offering customers a higher level of services or prod-
ucts, such as a gold credit card vs. a regular credit card) and cross-selling
(selling customers more products based on what they have already bought).
䡲 Sell products and services in combinations based on market basket analysis
(by determining what combinations of products are purchased at a given
time).

1.4 Data Mining: Users

Data mining applications have recently been deployed successfully by a wide range
of companies.1 While the early adopters of data mining belong mainly to informa-
tion-intensive industries such as as financial services and direct mail marketing, the
technology is applicable to any institution seeking to leverage a large data warehouse
to extract information that can be used in intelligent decision making. Data mining

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

applications reach across industries and business functions. For example, telecom-
munications, stock exchange, credit card, and insurance companies use data mining
to detect fraudulent use of their services; the medical industry uses data mining to
predict the effectiveness of surgical procedures, diagnostic medical tests, and med-
ications; and retailers use data mining to assess the effectiveness of discount
coupons and sales promotions. Data mining has many varied fields of application,
some of which are listed below:

䡲 Retail/marketing. An example of pattern discovery in retail sales is to identify

seemingly unrelated products that are often purchased together. Market
basket analysis is an algorithm that examines a long list of transactions in
order to determine which items are most frequently purchased together.
The results can be useful to any company that sells products, whether in
a store, by catalog, or directly to the customer.
䡲 Banking. A credit card company can leverage its customer transaction
database to identify customers most likely to be interested in a new credit
product. Using a small test mailing, the characteristics of customers with
an affinity for the product can be identified. Data mining tools can also
be used to detect patterns of fraudulent credit card use, including detecting
fraudulent credit card transactions and identifying anomalous data that
could represent data entry keying errors. It identifies loyal customers,
predicts customers likely to change their credit card affiliation, determines
credit card spending by customer groups, uncovers hidden correlations
among various financial indicators, and identifies stock trading trends from
historical market data.
䡲 Healthcare insurance. Through claims analysis (i.e., identifying medical pro-
cedures that are claimed together), data mining can predict which customers
will buy new policies, defines behavior patterns of risky customers, and
identifies fraudulent behavior.
䡲 Transportation. State and federal departments of transportation can develop
performance and network optimization models to predict the life-cycle
costs of road pavement.
䡲 Product manufacturing companies. Manufacturers can apply data mining to
improve their sales process to retailers. Data from consumer panels,
shipments, and competitor activity can be applied to understand the
reasons for brand and store switching. Through this analysis, a manufac-
turer can select promotional strategies that best reach their target cus-
tomer segments. Data mining can determine distribution schedules
among outlets and analyze loading patterns.
䡲 Healthcare and pharmaceutical industries. A pharmaceutical company can ana-
lyze its recent sales records to improve targeting of high-value physicians
and determine which marketing activities will have the greatest impact in
the next few months. The ongoing, dynamic analysis of the data warehouse

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

 allows the best practices from throughout the organization to be applied
in specific sales situations.
䡲 Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). As exam-
ples, the IRS uses data mining to track federal income tax frauds, and the
FBI uses data mining to detect any unusual patterns or trends in thousands
of field reports to look for any leads in terrorist activities.

1.5 Data Mining Tools

All data mining methods used now have evolved from advances in artificial intel-
ligence (AI), statistical computation, and database research. Data mining methods
are not considered as replacements of traditional statistical methods but as exten-
sions of the use of statistical and graphical techniques. Once it was thought that
automated data mining tools would eliminate the need for statistical analysts to
build predictive models, but the value that an analyst provides cannot be automated
out of existence. Analysts are still necessary to assess model results and validate
the plausibility of the model predictions. Because data mining software lacks the
human experience and intuition to recognize the difference between a relevant and
irrelevant correlation, statistical analysts will remain in high demand.

1.6 Data Mining Steps

1.6.1 Identification of Problem and Defining the Business
Goal
One of the main causes of data mining failure is not defining the business goals
based on short- and long-term problems facing the enterprise. The data mining
specialist should define the business goal in clear and sensible terms as far as
specifying what the enterprise hopes to achieve and how data mining can help.
Well-identified business problems lead to formulated business goals and data
mining solutions geared toward measurable outcomes.4

1.6.2 Data Processing

The key to successful data mining is using the appropriate data. Preparing data for
mining is often the most time-consuming aspect of any data mining endeavor.
Typical data structure suitable for data mining should contain observations (e.g.,
customers and products) in rows and variables (e.g., demographic data and sales
history) in columns. Also, the measurement levels (interval or categorical) of each
variable in the dataset should be clearly defined. The steps involved in preparing
the data for data mining are as follows:

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

 䡲 Preprocessing. This is the data cleansing stage, where certain information that
is deemed unnecessary and likely to slow down queries is removed. Also,
the data are checked to ensure use of a consistent format in dates, zip
codes, currency, units of measurements, etc. Inconsistent formats in the
database are always a possibility because the data are drawn from several
sources. Data entry errors and extreme outliers should be removed from
the dataset because influential outliers can affect the modeling results and
subsequently limit the usability of the predicted models.
䡲 Data integration. Combining variables from many different data sources is an
essential step because some of the most important variables are stored in
different data marts (customer demographics, purchase data, business trans-
action). The uniformity in variable coding and the scale of measurements
should be verified before combining different variables and observations from
different data marts.
䡲 Variable transformation. Sometimes expressing continuous variables in stan-
dardized units (or in log or square-root scale) is necessary to improve the
model fit that leads to improved precision in the fitted models. Missing
value imputation is necessary if some important variables have large pro-
portions of missing values in the dataset. Identifying the response (target)
and the predictor (input) variables and defining their scale of measurement
are important steps in data preparation because the type of modeling is
determined by the characteristics of the response and the predictor vari-
ables.
䡲 Splitting databases. Sampling is recommended in extremely large databases
because it significantly reduces the model training time. Randomly splitting
the data into training, validation, and testing categories is very important
in calibrating the model fit and validating the model results. Trends and
patterns observed in the training dataset can be expected to generalize the
complete database if the training sample used sufficiently represents the
database.

1.6.3 Data Exploration and Descriptive Analysis

Data exploration includes a set of descriptive and graphical tools that allow explora-
tion of data visually both as a prerequisite to more formal data analysis and as an
integral part of formal model building. It facilitates discovering the unexpected, as
well as confirming the expected. The purpose of data visualization is pretty simple:
to let the user understand the structure and dimension of the complex data matrix.
Because data mining usually involves extracting “hidden” information from a data-
base, the understanding process can get a bit complicated. The key is to put users in
a context in which they feel comfortable and then let them poke and prod until they
uncover what they did not see before. Understanding is undoubtedly the most
fundamental motivation behind visualizing the model.

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

 Simple descriptive statistics and exploratory graphics displaying the distribution
pattern and the presence of outliers are useful in exploring continuous variables.
Descriptive statistical measures such as the mean, median, range, and standard
deviation of continuous variables provide information regarding their distributional
properties and the presence of outliers. Frequency histograms display the distribu-
tional properties of the continuous variable. Box plots provide an excellent visual
summary of many important aspects of a distribution. The box plot is based on a
five-number summary plot, which is based on the median, quartiles, and extreme
values. One-way and multi-way frequency tables of categorical data are useful in
summarizing group distributions and relationships between groups, as well as
checking for rare events. Bar charts show frequency information for categorical
variables and display differences among the various groups in the categorical
variable. Pie charts compare the levels or classes of a categorical variable to each
other and to the whole. They use the size of pie slices to graphically represent the
value of a statistic for a data range.

1.6.4 Data Mining Solutions:Unsupervised Learning Methods

Unsupervised learning methods are used in many fields under a wide variety of
names. No distinction between the response and predictor variable is made in
unsupervised learning methods. The most commonly practiced unsupervised meth-
ods are latent variable models (principal component and factor analyses), disjoint
cluster analyses, and market basket analysis:

䡲 Principal component analysis (PCA). In PCA, the dimensionality of multivariate

data is reduced by transforming the correlated variables into linearly trans-
formed uncorrelated variables.
䡲 Factor analysis (FA). In FA, a few uncorrelated hidden factors that explain the
maximum amount of common variance and are responsible for the observed
correlation among the multivariate data are extracted.
䡲 Disjoint cluster analysis (DCA). DCA is used for combining cases into groups
or clusters such that each group or cluster is homogeneous with respect
to certain attributes.
䡲 Association and market basket analysis. Market basket analysis is one of the
most common and useful types of data analysis for marketing. The purpose
of market basket analysis is to determine what products customers purchase
together. Knowing what products consumers purchase as a group can be
very helpful to a retailer or to any other company.

1.6.5 Data Mining Solutions: Supervised Learning Methods

The supervised predictive models include both classification and regression models.
Classification models use categorical responses while regression models use con-

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

tinuous and binary variables as targets. In regression we want to approximate the
regression function, while in classification problems we want to approximate the
probability of class membership as a function of the input variables. Predictive
modeling is a fundamental data mining task. It is an approach that reads training
data composed of multiple input variables and a target variable. It then builds a
model that attempts to predict the target on the basis of the inputs. After this
model is developed, it can be applied to new data similar to the training data but
not containing the target.

䡲 Multiple linear regression (MLR). In MLR, the association between the two
sets of variables is described by a linear equation that predicts the contin-
uous response variable from a function of predictor variables.
䡲 Logistic regressions. This type of regression uses a binary or an ordinal variable
as the response variable and allows construction of more complex models
than the straight linear models do.
䡲 Neural net (NN) modeling. Neural net modeling can be used for both pre-
diction and classification. NN models enable construction of trains and
validate multiplayer feed-forward network models for modeling large data
and complex interactions with many predictor variables. NN models usually
contain more parameters than a typical statistical model, the results are not
easily interpreted, and no explicit rationale is given for the prediction. All
variables are considered to be numeric and all nominal variables are coded
as binary. Relatively more training time is needed to fit the NN models.
䡲 Classification and regression tree (CART). These models are useful in generating
binary decision trees by splitting the subsets of the dataset using all pre-
dictor variables to create two child nodes repeatedly beginning with the
entire dataset. The goal is to produce subsets of the data that are as
homogeneous as possible with respect to the target variable. Continuous,
binary, and categorical variables can be used as response variables in CART.
䡲 Discriminant function analysis. This is a classification method used to deter-
mine which predictor variables discriminate between two or more naturally
occurring groups. Only categorical variables are allowed to be the response
variable and both continuous and ordinal variables can be used as predic-
tors.
䡲 Chi-square automatic interaction detector (CHAID) decision tree. This is a classi-
fication method used to study the relationships between a categorical
response measure and a large series of possible predictor variables that may
interact with each other. For qualitative predictor variables, a series of chi-
square analyses are conducted between the response and predictor variables
to see if splitting the sample based on these predictors leads to a statistically
significant discrimination in the response.

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

1.6.6 Model Validation
Validating models obtained from training datasets by independent validation
datasets is an important requirement in data mining to confirm the usability of the
developed model. Model validation assesses the quality of the model fit and protects
against over-fitted or under-fitted models. Thus, model validation could be consid-
ered as the most important step in the model building sequence.

1.6.7 Interpretation and Decision Making

Decision making is critical for any successful business. No matter how good a
person may be at making decisions, making an intelligent decision can be difficult.
The patterns identified by the data mining solutions can be transformed into
knowledge, which can then be used to support business decision making.

1.7 Problems in the Data Mining Process

Many of the so-called data mining solutions currently available on the market today
do not integrate well, are not scalable, or are limited to one or two modeling
techniques or algorithms. As a result, highly trained quantitative experts spend more
time trying to access, prepare, and manipulate data from disparate sources and less
time modeling data and applying their expertise to solve business problems. The
data mining challenge is compounded even further as the amount of data and
complexity of the business problems increase. Often, the database is designed for
purposes other than data mining, so properties or attributes that would simplify
the learning task are not present and cannot be requested from the real world.
Data mining solutions rely on databases to provide the raw data for modeling,
and this raises problems in that databases tend to be dynamic, incomplete, noisy,
and large. Other problems arise as a result of the adequacy and relevance of the
information stored. Databases are usually contaminated by errors so it cannot be
assumed that the data they contain are entirely correct. Attributes, which rely on
subjective or measurement judgments, can give rise to errors in such a way that
some examples may even be misclassified. Errors in either the values of attributes
or class information are known as noise. Obviously, where possible, it is desirable
to eliminate noise from the classification information, as this affects the overall
accuracy of the generated rules; therefore, adopting a software system that provides
a complete data mining solution is crucial in the competitive environment.

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

1.8 SAS Software: The Leader in Data Mining
SAS Institute,7 the industry leader in analytical and decision support solutions,
offers a comprehensive data mining solution that allows users to explore large
quantities of data and discover relationships and patterns that lead to proactive
decision making. The SAS data mining solution provides business technologists
and quantitative experts the necessary tools to obtain the enterprise knowledge
necessary for their organizations to achieve a competitive advantage.

1.8.1 SEMMA: The SAS Data Mining Process

The SAS data mining solution is considered a process rather than a set of
analytical tools. Beginning with a statistically representative sample of the data,
SEMMA makes it easy to apply exploratory statistical and visualization tech-
niques, select and transform the most significant predictive variables, model the
variables to predict outcomes, and confirm the accuracy of a model. The acronym
SEMMA refers to a methodology that clarifies this process:8

䡲 Sample the data by extracting a portion of a dataset large enough to contain

the significant information, yet small enough to manipulate quickly.
䡲 Explore the data by searching for unanticipated trends and anomalies in
order to gain understanding and ideas.
䡲 Modify the data by creating, selecting, and transforming the variables to
focus the model selection process.
䡲 Model the data by allowing the software to search automatically for a
combination of data that reliably predicts a desired outcome.
䡲 Assess the data by evaluating the usefulness and reliability of the findings
from the data mining process.

By assessing the results gained from each stage of the SEMMA process, users
can determine how to model new questions raised by previous results and thus
proceed back to the exploration phase for additional refinement of the data. The
SAS data mining solution integrates everything necessary for discovery at each
stage of the SEMMA process: These data mining tools indicate patterns or excep-
tions, and mimic human abilities for comprehending spatial, geographical, and
visual information sources. Complex mining techniques are carried out in a totally
code-free environment, allowing analysts to concentrate on visualization of the
data, discovery of new patterns, and new questions to ask.

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

1.8.2 SAS Enterprise Miner for Comprehensive Data
Mining Solutions
Enterprise Miner,9,10 SAS Institute’s enhanced data mining software, offers an inte-
grated environment for businesses that want to conduct comprehensive data min-
ing. Enterprise Miner combines a rich suite of integrated data mining tools,
empowering users to explore and exploit huge databases for strategic business
advantages. In a single environment, Enterprise Miner provides all the tools necessary
to match robust data mining techniques to specific business problems, regardless
of the amount or source of data or complexity of the business problem.
It should be noted, however, that the annual licensing fee for using Enterprise
Miner is extremely high, so small businesses, nonprofit institutions, and academic
universities are unable to take advantage of this powerful analytical tool for data
mining. Trying to provide complete SAS codes here for performing comprehensive
data mining solutions would not be very effective because a majority of business
and statistical analysts are not experienced SAS programmers. Also, quick results
from data mining are not feasible because many hours of modifying code and
debugging program errors are required when analysts are required to work with
SAS program codes.

1.9 User-Friendly SAS Macros for Data Mining

Alternatives to the point-and-click menu interface modules and high-priced SAS
Enterprise Miner are the user-friendly SAS macro applications for performing several
data mining tasks that are included in this book. This macro approach integrates
the statistical and graphical tools available in SAS systems and provides user-friendly
data analysis tools that allow data analysts to complete data mining tasks quickly,
without writing SAS programs, by running the SAS macros in the background.
Detailed instructions and help files for using the SAS macros are included in each
chapter. Using this macro approach, analysts can effectively and quickly perform
complete data analysis, which allows them to spend more time exploring data and
interpreting graphs and output rather than debugging program errors. The main
advantages of using these SAS macros for data mining include:

䡲 Users can perform comprehensive data mining tasks by inputting the macro
parameters in the macro-call window and by running the SAS macro.
䡲 SAS codes required for performing data exploration, model fitting, model
assessment, validation, prediction, and scoring are included in each macro
so complete results can be obtained quickly.

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

 䡲 Experience in the SAS output delivery system (ODS) is not required
because options for producing SAS output and graphics in RTF, WEB,
and PDF are included within the macros.
䡲 Experience in writing SAS program codes or SAS macros is not required
to use these macros.
䡲 The SAS enhanced data mining software Enterprise Miner is not required
to run these SAS macros.
䡲 All SAS macros included in this book use the same simple user-friendly
format, so minimal training time is needed to master usage of these macros.
䡲 Experienced SAS programmers can customize these macros by modifying
the SAS macro codes included.
䡲 Regular updates to the SAS macros will be posted in the book website, so
readers can always take advantage of the updated features in the SAS macros
by downloading the latest versions.

The fact that these SAS macros do not use Enterprise Miner is something of a
limitation in that SAS macros could not be included for performing neural net,
CART, and market basket analysis, as these data mining tools require the use of
Enterprise Miner.

1.10 Summary
Data mining is a journey — a continuous effort to combine business knowledge
with information extracted from acquired data. This chapter briefly introduces the
concept and applications of data mining, which is the secret and intelligent weapon
that unleashes the power hidden in data. The SAS Institute, the industry leader in
analytical and decision support solutions, provides the powerful software Enterprise
Miner to perform complete data mining solutions; however, because of the high
price tag for Enterprise Miner, application of this software is not feasible for all
business analysts and academic institutions. As alternatives to the point-and-click
menu interface modules and Enterprise Miner, user-friendly SAS macro applications
for performing several data mining tasks are included in this book. Instructions
are given in the book for downloading and applying these user-friendly SAS macros
for producing quick and complete data mining solutions.

References
1. SAS Institute, Inc., Customer Success Stories (http://www.sas.com/news/suc-
cess/solutions.html).

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

 2. SAS Institute, Inc., Customer Relationship Management (http://www.sas.com/solu-
tions/crm/index.html).
3. SAS Institute, Inc., SAS Enterprise Miner Product Review (http://www.sas.
com/products/miner/miner_review.pdf).
4. Two Crows Corporation, Introduction to Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, 3rd ed., Poto-
mac, MD, 1999 (http://www.twocrows.com/intro-dm.pdf).
5. Berry, M.J.A. and Linoff, G.S., Data Mining Techniques: For Marketing, Sales, and
Customer Support, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1997.
6. Berry, M.J.A. and Linoff, G.S., Mastering Data Mining: The Art and Science of Customer
Relationship Management, 2nd ed., John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1999.
7. SAS Institute, Inc., The Power To Know (http://www.sas.com).
8. SAS Institute, Inc., Data Mining Using Enterprise Miner Software: A Case Study Approach,
1st ed., SAS Institute, Inc., Cary, NC, 2000.
9. SAS Institute, Inc., The Enterprise Miner (http://www.sas.com/products/
miner/index.html).
10. SAS Institute, Inc., The Enterprise Miner Standalone Tutorial (http://www. sas.com/ser-
vice/tutorials/v8/em/mainmenu.htm).

Suggested Reading and Case Studies

Exclusive Core, Inc., Data Mining Case Study: Retail Marketing (http://www. exclusive-
ore.com/casestudies/case%20study_telco.pdf).
Exclusive Core, Inc., Data Mining Case Study: Telecom Churn Study (http://www. exclusive-
ore.com/casestudies/case%20study_telco.pdf).
Exclusive Core, Inc., Data Warehousing and OLAP Case Study: Fast Food (http://www.exclu-
siveore.com/casestudies/case%20study_fastfood.pdf).
Gerritsen, R., A Data Mining Case Study: Assessing Loan Risks (http://www. exclusive-
ore.com/casestudies/dm%20at%20usda%20(itpro).pdf).
Linoff, G.S. and Berry, M.J.A., Mining the Web: Transforming Customer Data into Customer Value,
John Wiley & Sons, New York, 2002.
Megaputer Intelligence, Data Mining Case Studies (http://www.megaputer.com/com-
pany/pacases.php3).
Pyle, D., Data Preparation for Data Mining, Morgan Kaufmann, San Francisco, CA, 1999.
Rud, O.P., Data Mining Cookbook: Modeling Data for Marketing, Risk, and Customer Relationship
Management, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 2000.
SAS Institute, Inc., Data Mining and the Case for Sampling: Solving Business Problems Using SAS
E n t e r p r i s e M i n e r S o f t w a r e , S A S I n s t i t u t e , I n c . , C a r y, N C
(http://www.ag.unr.edu/gf/dm/sasdm.pdf).
SAS Institute, Inc., Using Data Mining Techniques for Fraud Detection: Solving Business Problems
Using SAS Enterprise Miner Software (http://www.ag.unr.edu/gf/dm/dmfraud.pdf).
Small, R.D., Debunking data mining myths, Information Week, January 20, 1997
(http://www.twocrows.com/iwk9701.htm).
Soukup, T. and Davidson, I., Visual Data Mining: Techniques and Tools for Data Visualization
and Mining, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 2002.
Thuraisingham, B., Data Mining: Technologies, Techniques, Tools, and Trends, CRC Press, Boca
Raton, FL, 1998.

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

Exploring the Variety of Random
Documents with Different Content
The Project Gutenberg eBook of The Exiles of
Faloo
This ebook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United States
and most other parts of the world at no cost and with almost no
restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it
under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included with this
ebook or online at www.gutenberg.org. If you are not located in the
United States, you will have to check the laws of the country where
you are located before using this eBook.

Title: The Exiles of Faloo

Author: Barry Pain

Release date: January 20, 2014 [eBook #44718]

Most recently updated: October 24, 2024

Language: English

Credits: Produced by Henry Flower and the Online Distributed

Proofreading Team at http://www.pgdp.net (This file was
produced from images generously made available by The
Internet Archive/Canadian Libraries)

*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE EXILES OF

FALOO ***
 THE
EXILES OF FALOO
BY
BARRY PAIN
AUTHOR OF “THE GIFTED FAMILY”

SECOND EDITION

METHUEN & CO.

36 ESSEX STREET W.C.
LONDON
First Published ... March 10th 1910
Second Edition ... March 1910
THE EXILES OF FALOO
 CHAPTER I
Overhead a blue sky without a cloud; in the distance the sound of
the surf—a muffled bass which broke on the tink of the bell at the
French Mission or the scream of the parrot on the broad verandah of
the Exiles’ Club.
On the lawn in front of the verandah two natives had just finished
their reluctant work with the mower. They wore loin-cloths of tappa
and nothing else. The head-gardener wore a loin-cloth of tappa and
a white evening-dress waistcoat, the latter being the gift of Dr
Soames Pryce. The waistcoat was splendid but unclean. The head-
gardener had been inspecting the work of the others from a
recumbent position. All three passed away now along the grass path
under the laden orange trees. Two gorgeous butterflies chased one
another over the lawn in the sunshine.
The plaited blind in front of the French windows was pushed back
and Sir John Sweetling appeared on the verandah. He was a man of
fifty-five, six feet in height and inclined to corpulence. On the whole
a handsome man, with a short white beard and moustache neatly
trimmed, and fearless blue eyes under shaggy white brows. The
nose was perhaps a trifle nosey. He wore a white silk shirt, white
ducks, a brown holland jacket and a panama of the finest texture.
Sir John lingered for a moment beside the parrot’s perch. He
scratched the bird’s neck, and said in an affectionate voice, “Poor old
Polly.”
The parrot bent down and got to work with its beak on the perch,
much as if the perch had been a steel and the beak a carving-knife
which it was trying to sharpen. Then it sat up, drew its indecent lids
over its solemn eyes once or twice, and spoke distinctly.
“You damned thief,” said the parrot.
It was an observation which had been addressed to Sir John before,
and not only by parrots.
Sir John shook his head. “Naughty bird,” he said, “naughty bird!”
Then he came down the steps of the verandah on to the lawn. Three
lounge chairs were grouped about a small table, and Sir John took
the most comfortable of the three. On the table were books of a
ledger-like appearance, writing materials, and a bell. Sir John struck
the bell with a fat brown forefinger.
The head-gardener came out from the orange trees. After all, he
was not only the head-gardener. He smiled ingratiatingly, as if to say
that he took a personal interest in Sir John, and it would be a
positive pleasure to him to do anything for him. From a natural
friendliness, which only broke down under severe stress, all the
natives wore this air of interest in the white man and of readiness to
serve them in any way. As a matter of fact no native, with the
solitary exception of King Smith, ever did anything that he could
possibly avoid. The climate is relaxing, and the cokernut palm
supplies many wants.
Sir John looked at the man doubtfully. “Well, yes, you’ll do,” he said.
“Go and tell Thomas that I want a lime-squash, no sugar, and a
double Hollands in it.”
The head-gardener repeated the order, with a careworn look
beginning to gather on his handsome, dusky face. The club-house
was at least twenty yards away, and he would have to walk every
step of it. He walked very gracefully and very slowly, a slight wind
fluttering the buckle straps of his waistcoat behind. On the verandah
he paused to rest and to tease the parrot.
“Get on, you dog,” shouted Sir John. And the head-gardener got on.
Presently Thomas appeared with the drink. At one time he had been
desk-waiter at the Cabinet Club, London. At the Exiles’ Club, in this
very tiny and remote island, he was a combination of steward and
head-waiter. He wore black trousers and neck-tie and a white jacket.
He was grey-haired, round-faced, and loose-mouthed.
Sir John let the ice clink musically against the glass. It was almost
the only æsthetic pleasure that he enjoyed. He took a long suck at a
couple of straws and then, as he fumbled for his money, said
plaintively:
“I say, Thomas, aren’t they coming?”
“Coming directly, sir. The green lizard won, and they are not racing
again, Mr Bassett having no more ready money with him.”
“Childish—utterly childish,” said Sir John, irritably.
“Your change, sir?”
“It was half-a-crown I gave you.”
“I took it for a florin,” said Thomas, quite unembarrassed. “My
mistake. Sorry, sir.”
Down the steps of the verandah towards Sir John came Mr Bassett
and Dr Soames Pryce. Mr Bassett was a very short man. His face
was ape-like and had a fringe beard of sandy grey. He was
overshadowed by an immense Terai felt hat, and was a quaint figure
until you got used to him. He occupied the honorary position of
secretary to the Exiles’ Club. Dr Soames Pryce was a man of medium
height and magnificent figure—a chest deep and broad, small waist
and hips, powerful muscles, and no spare flesh. He was clean-
shaven, and his ugly, strong face suggested a cynical Napoleon. He
wore a shirt and trousers of white flannel and a pith helmet.
“My lizard won, Sweetling,” he said, as he sank into one of the
lounge chairs.
“So Thomas has been telling me,” said Sir John, reflectively. “Wish
I’d backed it.”
“Tell you what, Bassett,” said the doctor, sharply. “You were
grumbling—said you’d never seen your browny run so badly. I’ll back
my green one against him once more for another sovereign—run it
off to-morrow morning.”
“Can’t,” said Bassett. “Killed mine—always kill losers.” His manner
was jerky and nervous. He was already turning over the volumes on
the table. “We have business of some importance to the club before
us this morning—the election of—”
He stopped short as a native waiter approached with a tray. The
doctor apparently shared the taste of Sir John in morning beverages;
Mr Bassett drank iced barley-water with a slice of lemon in it.
“Yes, yes,” said Sir John as the waiter retired. “Mr Bassett is right;
business of very serious importance. We must be getting on. I will
ask Mr Bassett to read the minutes of the last meeting.”
Mr Bassett jerked rapidly through the data of the meeting and the
names of the committee-men who attended. In addition to the
names of those now present the name of the Rev. Cyril Mast was
read.
Dr Soames Pryce took his mouth away from a drinking-straw to
observe, “Mast not coming to-day?”
“I shall have something to say presently as to that,” said Sir John.
“Myself also,” said Mr Bassett, and went on with the minutes in a
quick staccato.
There were certain financial matters “examined and found correct.”
There was a history of two backed bills; in one case the secretary
would write and express regrets; in the other the committee had
found that the price charged for giant asparagus was not
unreasonable.
Sir John took the formal vote that he should sign the minutes as
correct, and proceeded to routine business. Financial questions were
considered with care, and were a little complicated by the use of
more than one currency. The club was in a very satisfactory position.
It had only thirty-two members, but the subscription was high and
the expenses were small.
At last came the important business. Sir John opened the candidates’
book and spoke with a voice of deliberate impartiality:
“Gentlemen, we have a candidate up for election. He is a native of
this island, known to us all, I think, as King Smith. I see that he is
described here as John Smith, trader and chief of Faloo. He is
proposed by Mr Page and seconded by the Rev. Cyril Mast. He is
supported by Mr Bassett, Mr Mandelbaum, Mr Duncombe, Mr
Clarence Mills, and Lord Charles Baringstoke—under ordinary
circumstances, I should say a strong list. Before proceeding to
discussion I will ask our secretary to read the letters of the proposer
and the seconder.”
The letters were unusually long and apologetic, but this was the first
time that a native had been proposed for membership of the Exiles’
Club.
Mr Page, in his letter, pointed out that this was no ordinary native.
He was of the blood royal, and was recognised by all the natives as
chief or King of Faloo. It was to be remembered that certainly in the
old days and in a neighbouring group of the islands white men had
not thought it beneath their dignity to take positions—and even
subordinate positions—at the court of native kings and queens.
Dr Soames Pryce gave a short contemptuous laugh; Mr Bassett
glared at him out of mean eyes and continued the letter.
Mr Page pointed out further that Smith had shown a readiness to
absorb European ideas which was without parallel in the case of a
native. His business, in which a syndicate of members of the club
were financially interested, was solid and progressive. He had shown
enterprise and talent for organisation. He spoke French well and
English to perfection. He had been of great assistance to the white
men on the island. “And of his wide and generous hospitality most of
us have had pleasant experience.”
“Good letter,” commented the doctor, briefly.
The letter of the Rev. Cyril Mast repeated much that Mr Page had
said, but contained some additional items of information. As regards
the name of John Smith, Smith was merely the Anglicised form of its
owner’s native name.
The doctor’s laugh was perhaps excusable. The native name was of
four syllables, began with “m,” ended with “oo,” and had a “k” in it.
The laugh was repeated when the Rev. Cyril Mast asserted that
Smith had received the name John upon baptism into the Church of
England, performed during boyhood when on a visit to another
island.
“Name,” said the doctor.
“Order,” said Sir John. “We can discuss the letter afterwards.”
“I presume,” said Mr Bassett, savagely, “that Dr Pryce does not
venture to question the veracity of a member of the club.”
“Rot,” said the doctor.
“Order, order,” said Sir John. “Read on, please, Mr Bassett.”
He read on. The Rev. Cyril Mast pointed out that King Smith’s
attitude in religious matters was one of the broadest toleration, as
exemplified by the fact that he permitted the French Catholic mission
on his island. He had lessened the superstitious observances of the
natives, had deported the priests, and now held solely in his own
person the important power of “taboo.” In view of labour difficulties
and other difficulties with the natives it was imperatively necessary
to conciliate the possessor of this power. It was hardly too much to
say that their existence depended upon it. It would be necessary to
elect King Smith, “even if he were not the genial, open-handed
sportsman whom we all know him to be.”
There was a moment’s silence. It was for the President to speak
first. Sir John spoke with ease and fluency. He had addressed many
meetings, and soothed for the time many angry shareholders.
“Well, gentlemen,” said Sir John, “Mr Smith comes before you under
very good auspices. He is seconded by one member of the
committee and underwritten by another. Among his supporters we
have noted the names of Lord Charles Baringstoke and—er—others.
But it must be remarked that his seconder is not here this morning
to speak for him. Why is he not here?”
“He was so very drunk last night,” said Dr Soames Pryce. There was
not the least shade of moral accusation in his voice; it was a plain
statement of a cause having a certain effect.
“Nonsense!” snapped Mr Bassett.
“I assure you, my diagnosis is correct.”
“Gentlemen!” said Sir John, in mild protest. Both men apologised to
the President for the interruption. He continued:
“From whatever cause it arises it is at least unfortunate that Mr Mast
is not here; there are questions that I should have felt it my duty,
unpleasant though it might be, to put to him. However, we will leave
him and consider the candidature of Mr Smith.”
Here Sir John paused to light a cigar and refresh himself from the
glass before him.
“Now, gentlemen, I think if I may claim any virtue at all it is the
virtue of foresight. When the circumstances arose which made it
advisable for me to leave England, I had already foreseen those
circumstances and I knew that Faloo was the place. From its want of
an accessible harbour, its small size, and its position out of the usual
line of trading and other vessels, and also perhaps from a
pardonable ignorance, Faloo has been omitted by statesmen and
their advisers from treaties innumerable. It has independence on
sufferance. Any European power that claimed Faloo would be met by
a counter-claim from another power, and at present it is considered
too obscure and insignificant for diplomacy, or for sterner methods
of arbitration. Briefly, it is not worth fighting about. But I know that
you will agree with me that it is just what we require. Life is soft and
easy, and the climate is always summer. Nature has showered her
gifts upon this island—gorgeous flowers and luscious fruits, the
graceful and useful palm, the orange trees in the shade of which we
sit.”
“Pardon the correction,” said Dr Soames Pryce. “The orange trees
were brought by Smith’s grandfather from Tahiti, and they were not
indigenous even there.”
“Thank you, Dr Pryce. At least I may say that this kindly and prolific
soil has, in the case of the orange trees as in our own case,
welcomed the stranger. The natives are friendly—except in some
cases which I can explain—and though their natural laziness makes
it difficult to find useful and trustworthy servants, we have managed
to get along so far by a temperate firmness on our part. For such
hostility as exists I regret to say that certain members of this club
have only themselves to thank, and I may add in confidence that Mr
Mast is one of the worst offenders. This—er—philandering with the
wives and daughters of natives is a thing that must definitely be
stopped or there will be awful trouble.”
Sir John paused for another sip, and surveyed his companions. Dr
Soames Pryce looked straight down his nose; Mr Bassett toyed
innocently with a pen-holder.
“Well, gentlemen, to make a long story short, insignificant little Faloo
precisely suits me. Personally, I ask nothing better than that I may
live the rest of my life here, enjoying—if you find some worthier
President—”
“No, no,” said the other two men.
“Well, enjoying at least my membership of the Exiles’ Club. Now I do
not want to break a tacit understanding by referring to the past
history of any of us. Some may have made mistakes, or yielded to
some unfortunate impulse; some—my own is a case in point—may
be the victims of conspiracy on the one part and misunderstanding
on another. But in any case, if ever we had to leave Faloo, where
could we go? I know of no place from which we should not promptly
be sent back to our native land, to be tried by some clumsy tribunal
that on half the facts of the case judges a man’s isolated acts apart
from his motives and his general character and his mode of life.”
“Hear, hear,” said Mr Bassett.
“Now comes my point. Our safety lies in the obscurity and
insignificance of Faloo. Make it of importance—get it talked about—
and we are lost. Now Smith’s great idea is to boom Faloo, to extend
his own trade indefinitely, and he even has dreams of finally getting
its independence formally acknowledged. This last he will probably
never do, because the island would be annexed, but if he did, part
of the price of independence would be an extradition treaty. He has
been described as enterprising, and the description is true. He even
now has a plan for blasting the reef and throwing open the harbour
for his own trading ships. He speaks often of the loss and the danger
occasioned by loading and unloading by canoes a vessel lying
outside the reef. Well, there is only room for a canoe or a small boat
to get through the reef now, and there will never be any more room,
so long as we have the whip-hand of Mr Smith. His interests and
ours are diametrically opposed. How can we admit such a man to
terms of perfect equality as would be implied by membership of this
club? Why should he ask it except as a means to push his schemes
with injudicious members, lured by the prospect of a money
advantage? What would it profit us, gentlemen, if we gained all the
money in the world and lost—er—this quiet retreat from the
malicious people who are anxious to interfere with us? Believe me,
he has no love for the white man. If he permits the French Mission it
is because the French Mission is a regular and lucrative customer
and the priests help to educate him. He is genial and hospitable; but
we also are regular and lucrative customers and much more than
that. He has been of service to us; two or three times he has sent
off, with almost needless brutality, low-class English and Americans,
without a five-pound note to call their own, who have attempted to
establish themselves here. He serves us, because we do not want
that type. But he serves himself too, for they are no use to him
either. I have known Smith longer than any white man on this island,
and I know that extension of trade and the making of money is his
first aim. He’d like a regular trading fleet instead of the ramshackle
tramps he owns at present. When I came here he lived in a leaf-
thatched shanty and had hardly anything. See how far he has got on
already; he means to go twenty times as far as that. And when he’s
got the money he’s on to something else—he doesn’t talk about it,
and I don’t know much about it, but I do know that it will be
something with King Smith in it and ourselves outside. Now at
present we’ve got the whip-hand of that gentleman, and we’ve got
to keep it. We’ve got the whip-hand, because the money on which
his business is run is our money and under our own control. I have
put seven hundred golden sovereigns into it, Dr Pryce has two
hundred, Mr Bassett two hundred, and other members have smaller
sums, making fifteen hundred in all. From the very beginning I took
the line that (in the absence of ordinary legal safeguards) the
borrower must trust the lender and the lender must trust nobody.
We see such books as he keeps; we practically control the bank. We
know what he’s doing. We can say ‘go on’ and we can say ‘stop.’
Smith controls the natives? He does. He can enforce the ‘taboo’? He
can. And what on earth does it matter so long as we control Smith?
It’s money that talks. And that reminds me that I’ve been doing a lot
of talking myself, though I’ve still got one more point to raise. You
don’t mind?”
“I want to hear everything you’ve got against Smith; it’ll help me to
show the other side,” said Mr Bassett.
“My own mind is still open,” said Dr Soames Pryce. “Let me hear you
both by all means. At present it doesn’t seem to me to matter a
curse whether we elect him or not. But might I suggest an
interlude?”
“Certainly,” said Sir John. “The same idea had just occurred to me.”
He struck the bell repeatedly, until Thomas appeared on the
verandah. A sign gave the order, and fresh drinks were brought out.
“Now for my last point,” said Sir John. “England has not treated me
well, and it would probably treat me worse if it could get me, but I
can never forget that I am an Englishman. We white men here”—his
voice vibrated—“are the representatives of the conquering races.”
Dr Soames Pryce concealed a smile.
“We have a certain amount of prestige among the natives, and we
cannot give away prestige and keep it. Our action in electing Mr
Smith would be read by the natives as a concession made from fear.
He would be exalted, and we should be debased. A rule of the club
prohibits the introduction of any native as a guest; I have not the
least doubt that the election of a native would also have been
prohibited, had it ever been supposed that such an event was
possible. Let us treat Mr Smith with kindness and civility. He likes to
exercise hospitality, and I sometimes look in at his place and take a
drink with him. But we must not elect him as an equal. If you two
gentlemen are divided in your opinions my casting vote goes against
Mr Smith.”
Sir John leaned back in his chair, removed his hat and mopped his
bald head with his handkerchief. He was convinced that the election
of Smith would be disastrous, and he had done his best to prevent
it. Bassett, he knew, would support Smith, but Sir John counted on
opposition from the doctor.
“Well, now, Mr Bassett,” said Sir John.
But Mr Bassett suddenly adopted a conciliatory and even flattering
attitude towards Dr Soames Pryce.
“Excuse me,” he said. “Better take things in their order of
importance. Dr Pryce—most popular and representative—better hear
him first.”
“My mind’s still open,” said Dr Pryce. “Sir John’s been talking rather
as if the Exiles’ Club were the Athenæum and King Smith were a
doubtful archdeacon. We aren’t the Athenæum. We represent the
dead-beat section of the conquering races. As we have referred to
the past I may mention that we comprise men who have had to skip
and can’t go back.”
“A little too strongly put,” said Sir John.
“I’m only saying what you’ve been thinking,” said Dr Pryce. “Poor old
Thomas messed his accounts at the Cabinet Club and he had to skip,
and it’s supposed to be the same all the way up through the
members. All we ask about a white candidate is how much he
brought with him or can have sent out to him. If he can afford it he’s
a member. Our rules are easy, but we don’t change members’
cheques, and it’s a recognised principle with us that we believe in
the money we see and in no other money. If the cash isn’t on the
table there’s no bet. That being so, ought we to put on side? Can we
carry it?”
“Certainly not. Hear hear!” said Mr Bassett with enthusiasm.
“Sir John says we’ve got the whip-hand of King Smith now. True. So
we have. So we shall still have if he’s made a member. Sir John
thinks that if Smith opens the harbour and widens the trade the
island will be grabbed and we shall be grabbed too. I should say
rats!”
“Really?” said Sir John, frigidly.
“I mean, with all respect, that there’s not enough in Faloo to make
any power restless in its sleep—except ourselves, and it is not likely
to be known that we are here. As for Smith himself, he’s a clever
blackguard, but I doubt if he’s as deep as our President thinks.
There are good streaks about him. The natives get none of the filth
that he brews in the still at the back of his office—that’s traded away
under the rose to other islands. He’s got an open hand, and keeps
good whisky, and what persuaded our reverend friend Mast to get
tight on curaçoa last night beats me altogether. What I don’t like is
that while his business is financed by some of us he’s lending money
out of his share of the profits to others. Three of the men who
underwrote him have got an advance on their remittances from him
—Charley Baringstoke’s one of them. That might make
awkwardness. He’s playing it all out for John Smith too, as our
President says. Well, I’m playing it for Dr Pryce. If Bassett isn’t
playing it for a man whose name begins with B I’m wrong. Fire in,
Bassett. As I say, my mind’s still open.”
Mr Bassett spoke briefly and nervously, with a sickly, ingratiating
smile, fingering at times that uncomely fringe of beard. He was sure
that Sir John had presented the arguments on his side of the
question with great skill and power. But he must confess that he
thought the greater part of those arguments had already been fully
answered in a few sentences by Dr Pryce. As for the absence of the
Rev. Cyril Mast, that was really due to delicacy and good feeling; he
had felt that the discussion of a candidate whom he had seconded
could be more free and open in the seconder’s absence. That being
so, Mast might possibly have felt free to indulge last night in the—er
—lapse which Dr Pryce had described. Certainly, the money-lending
to which Dr Pryce had objected was a serious point. But he believed
that Mr Smith had only given way from good-nature, only in a few
cases, and only for small sums. He would guarantee that an
expression of opinion would be enough to stop it. There was one
matter with which Dr Pryce had not dealt, and that was the native
question. Here Mr Bassett became very impressive.
“It’s not foreign powers and extradition treaties we’ve got to fear. If
John Smith wants to blast the reef, and can give us twenty per cent.
for our money instead of ten, let him do it, and I’ve got more money
waiting for him. But we’ve got to fear the natives of this island here
and now.”
“I suppose it’s necessary for you to be in a funk of something,” said
Mr Soames Pryce.
“Order,” said Sir John. “Really, that’s rather an insulting remark.”
“Sorry. I withdraw it,” said Pryce, placidly.
“Sir John himself said that unless this—er—interference with the
native women were stopped there would be awful trouble. Mr Mast’s
name has been mentioned. Two nights ago, as he was coming home
from Smith’s, a spear went too near him to be pleasant. Doesn’t that
mean something to fear? Let me ask Dr Pryce if he were managing
an insurance office if he would accept Mast’s life?”
“If I were the physician he’d never get as far as the manager,” said
the doctor, grimly.
“Mast’s is not the only case. Mr Mandelbaum has had stones thrown
at him. Lord Charles Baringstoke has been threatened. Natives have
been found skulking round the club-house at night. Sir John says
that this—er—philandering must be stopped absolutely. But nature is
stronger than Sir John; the women are said to be attractive, and
young men won’t live ascetic lives. Even if it could be stopped now,
much of the harm is done already. The election of Mr Smith would
bring the natives round again, and in the meantime something could
be done to regularise the situation—some form of marriage which
would satisfy native susceptibilities without imposing too onerous an
obligation upon us. The help of Mr Smith in a matter of the kind
would be invaluable. If we refuse to elect him the natives will get to
hear of it—they get to hear of everything—and we stand a good
chance of being burned in our beds. I don’t say we might elect Mr
Smith—I say that for our own safety we must elect him.”
As Mr Bassett finished there was a sound a little like distant
applause; it was merely the club parrot stropping his beak on his
perch with furious energy.
“We will proceed to vote, gentlemen,” said Sir John. “You know
which way my casting vote will go if there is any difference of
opinion between you.”
“You damned thief!” screamed the parrot.
“I shall certainly vote that Mr Smith be elected,” said Mr Bassett.
“You damned thief!” screamed the parrot again.
“Well, I’m quite decided now,” said Dr Pryce.
“You damned thief!” shrieked the parrot once more. Sir John banged
the bell again and again.
“Thomas!” he shouted, “take that infernal bird inside. We can’t hear
ourselves speak. Now,” he added more suavely, “we are ready for
your vote, Dr Pryce, and the election turns on it.”
 CHAPTER II
Mr Bassett had made the commonest mistake of political speakers;
he had supposed that the argument which appealed most strongly to
himself would appeal most strongly to his audience. He had
appealed to fear. Dr Soames Pryce was not a timid man, and he
resented what he regarded as an attempt to scare him.
“I vote against the election of Mr Smith to this club,” said Dr Pryce,
bluntly.
“After all you have said?” exclaimed Mr Bassett. “You surprise me
very much.”
“One moment, Mr Bassett,” said the President. “I must declare then
that Mr John Smith is not elected.”
Mr Bassett paused with the pen in his hand. “Am I to write ‘not
elected,’ gentlemen? We have all admitted that Smith is a good,
hospitable fellow, and we have business dealings with him. We
might let him down as easily as possible. May I write ‘postponed for
further consideration’? It commits us to nothing, and it’s not quite so
harsh.”
“I see no objection to that,” said Sir John. “What do you think,
doctor?”
“No objection,” said Dr Soames Pryce with a yawn.
“Then,” said Sir John, as he rose, “I think that concludes our
business.”
The head-gardener and his two assistants made an incautious
appearance, and were at once commanded to carry the club-books
within to the secretary’s room. Mr Bassett said he supposed he
ought to go and see how poor Cyril Mast was getting on after last
night.
Dr Soames Pryce watched Bassett’s little figure under the big hat
retreating down the avenue.
“Nice specimen of Pusillanimus Ambulans, or the Walking Toadstool,”
said Dr Pryce. “What’s next, Sweetling? I don’t mind backing my
green lizard against the clock.”
“Silly game, very silly,” said Sir John. “Still, I may as well lose four
half-crowns at that as anything else. And”—he glanced at his
elaborate presentation watch—“there’s still half an hour before
lunch.”
The course for lizard-racing had been designed and laid out by Dr
Pryce in the courtyard on the further side of the club. The course
was circular, and the boards on either side sloped inwards so that
the lizards should not climb them. A lizard attempting escape would
go straight ahead by the only path open to it, round and round the
circle. That was the rule, but there were various exceptions.
Dr Pryce produced the box of plaited grass in which his lizard was
kept, and turned it out on to the course. It made an ineffectual
attempt to climb the side, and then went straight away, looking
rather like a clever clockwork toy.
“Lay you ten shillings it doesn’t go round in thirty-six seconds,” said
Sir John.
“Thirty-four’s record. Not good enough. I’ll back him to do two
rounds in seventy-five for the same money.”
“Done. Start the watch.”
Both men put down their money and kept one eye on the stop-
watch and one on the starting-point. The lizard was round in 35.5
and going strongly. A few feet further on it paused as if it were
saying to itself, “Let’s see—where did I put my umbrella?” Then it
turned right round and went back, presumably, to fetch it.
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