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3.Probability

The document provides an overview of basic probability concepts, including definitions of experiments, events, and properties of probability. It explains how to calculate probabilities, including conditional, joint, and marginal probabilities, as well as the rules for addition and multiplication of probabilities. Additionally, the document includes quizzes and exercises to reinforce understanding of these concepts.

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2 views

3.Probability

The document provides an overview of basic probability concepts, including definitions of experiments, events, and properties of probability. It explains how to calculate probabilities, including conditional, joint, and marginal probabilities, as well as the rules for addition and multiplication of probabilities. Additionally, the document includes quizzes and exercises to reinforce understanding of these concepts.

Uploaded by

maittt.22ba13211
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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You are on page 1/ 36

BASIC PROBABILITY

Dr Nguyen Thi Van Anh


Department of Biotechnology-Pharmacology
University of Science and Technology of Hanoi
CONTENTS

• IntroducDon – basic concepts

• Elementary properDes of probability

• CalculaDng the probability of an event


INTRODUCTION
ü People use the term probability many times each day.

Example: - physician says that a patient has a 50-50 chance of


surviving a certain operation.

- Another physician may say that she is 95% certain that


a patient has a particular disease

ü More convenient to express probabilities as fractions

ü The probability of the occurrence of some event is measured


by a number between 0 and 1
1. Basic concepts

ü An experiment: the process by which an observation (or


measurement) is obtained.

ü An event: is an outcome of an experiment, usually denoted


by a capital letter (A, E…).
- When an experiment is performed, a particular event either
happens, or it doesn’t!
Experiments and Events
• Experiment: Record an age
– A: person is 30 years old
– B: person is older than 65

• Experiment: Toss a die


– A: observe an odd number
– B: observe a number greater than 2
Basic Concepts
• Two events are mutually exclusive if, when one
event occurs, the other cannot, and vice versa.

•Experiment: Toss a die


Not Mutually
–A: observe an odd number Exclusive
–B: observe a number greater than 2

–C: observe a 6 Mutually


B and C?
B and D?
–D: observe a 3 Exclusive
Basic Concepts
2. ProperDes of probability
An experiment has n mutually exclusive events (outcomes):

E1, E2,…, En

• P(Ei) ≥ 0

• P(E1) + P(E2) +…+ P(En) = 1

• P(Ei + Ej) = P(Ei) + P(Ej)


QUIZ

1) Which of the following is an experiment?

A. Tossing a coin

B. Rolling a single 6-sided die

C. Choosing a marble from a jar

D. All of the above


QUIZ

2) Which of the following is an outcome?

A. Rolling a pair of dice

B. Choosing a marble from a jar

C. Rolling a 4 (from rolling a six-sided die)

D. None of the above


QUIZ
3) Which of the following experiments does not have
equally likely outcomes?

A. Choose a number at random from 1 to 10

B. Toss a coin

C. Choose a letter at random from the word SCHOOL

D. None of the above


QUIZ
4) A number from 1 to 11 is chosen at random. What is the
probability of choosing an odd number

A. 1/11

B. 5/11

C. 6/11

D. None of the above


3. CalculaDng probability
Suppose a person is picked at random from this sample. What is
the probability that this person will be 18 years old or younger?
3.1. Conditional probability

The conditional probability of an event B, in relation to event A, is


the probability that event B will occur given the knowledge that
event A already occurred.
Example 1
Toss a fair coin twice. P(A/B) = ?, P(A/not B) = ?
– A: head on second toss
– B: head on first toss

P(A|B) = ½
P(A|not B) = ½

HH 1/4
P(A) does not
HT 1/4
change, whether A and B are
independent! 1/4
B happens or TH

not… TT 1/4
Example 2
A bowl contains five M&Ms®, two red and three blue. Randomly
select two candies, and define:
– A: second candy is red.
– B: first candy is blue. P(A/B) = ?, P(A/not B) = ?

m P(A|B) =P(2nd red|1st blue)= 2/4 = 1/2


m m
P(A|not B) = P(2nd red|1st red) = 1/4
m m

P(A) does change,


depending on A and B are
whether B happens dependent!
or not…
3.2. Joint probability

A statistical measure where the likelihood of two events


occurring together and at the same point in time are calculated

Notation: P(A ∩ B) or P (A, B)


Dependent and Independent events

ü 2 events A and B are independent if the (non)occurrence of


one event has no effect on the (non)occurrence of the other.

ü 2 events A and B are dependent if the (non)occurrence of


one event affects the (non)occurrence of the other.
Dependent and Independent events

Two events A and B are independent if and


only if
P(A|B) = P(A) or P(B|A) = P(B)
Otherwise, they are dependent.
The MulDplicaDve Rule
A probability may be computed from other probabilities

• For any two events, A and B, the probability that both A and B
occur (intersection of A and B) is

• If the events A and B are independent, then the probability that


both A and B occur is

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B)


Definition of conditional probability
Example 3
In a certain population, 10% of the people can be
classified as being high risk for a heart attack. Three people are
randomly selected from this population. What is the probability
that exactly one of the three are high risk?

Define H: high risk N: not high risk

P(exactly one high risk) = P(HNN) + P(NHN) + P(NNH)


= P(H)P(N)P(N) + P(N)P(H)P(N) + P(N)P(N)P(H)
= (.1)(.9)(.9) + (.9)(.1)(.9) + (.9)(.9)(.1)= 3(.1)(.9)2 = .243
Example 4
Suppose we have additional information in the
previous example. We know that only 49% of the population are
female. Also, of the female patients, 8% are high risk.
A single person is selected at random.
What is the probability that it is a high risk female?

Define H: high risk F: female


From the example, P(F) = .49 and P(H|F) = .08.
Use the MulDplicaDve Rule:
P(high risk female) = P(H∩F)
= P(F)P(H|F) =.49(.08) = .0392
The addiDon rule
• If 2 events A and B are mutually exclusive events, the probability
of the occurrence of either one or the other is equal to the sum of
their individual probabilities:

P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)

• If 2 events A and B are not mutually exclusive events, the


probability of the occurrence of either one or the other is given by
the following formula:

P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)


AddiDon and mulDplicaDon rule
Example
a)

b)

Since E and B are independent events: P(E/B) = P(E)


Complementary events
3.3. Marginal probability
• The probability of a single event A, P (A), without any
consideration of any other events

• Can be computed from other mutually exclusive events

B1, B2,…, Bk are mutually exclusive and collectively exhautive events

Events are called collectively exhaustive if the list of outcome


includes all possible outcomes
Summary of probabiliDes
Exercises
Ex1. Two colored dice (one yellow, one blue) are rolled .

a) What is probability of rolling two sixes?

b) What is probability of rolling a six at second toss, knowing the


first toss is a six?

SoluDon:
A: first toss is a six, B: second toss is a six
A and B are independent events

a) P(AΠB) = P(A) x P(B) = 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36

b) P(B/A) = P(B) = 1/6


Exercises
Ex2. In a hospital, there are 1200 patients, 250 is suffering diarrhea,
150 patients are having hypertension, and 40 are suffering both
diarrhea and hypertension. What is the probability that a randomly
chosen student who is suffering diarrhea, has hypertension?

SoluDon: Find a probability that a paDent has hypertension,


given that the paDent is suffering diarrhea.

A: paDent is suffering hypertension


B: paDent is suffering diarrhea

P(A/B)= P(AΠB)/P(B)
P(AΠB) = 40/1200 P(B) = 250/1200
P(A/B) = 40/250 = 16%

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