MALTHUSIAN (EXPONENTIAL MODEL)\

For a given t, let p(t) be the number of units in population of any component say counting of
Gezawa local government that was conducted by census.
It is assumed that the growth rate is proportional to the population present. this assumption is
consistent with observation of growth provided. we assume that death rate is zero.
dp
α p ( t ) ,(1)
dt
P(0)= p o , k >0 ,

(Growth rate po , at timet=0 ),

dp
=kp ( t ) ,
dt
dp
=kdt , (2)
p (t )

(by taking the integral of both side of equation (2)),

dp=k ∫ dt ,
1
⎰
p (t)
ln p ( t )=kt +c , (3)

(by taking the exponential of both side of equation (3) )

kt +c
P ( t ) =e
kt c
P(t )=e . e
kt
P ( t ) =p 0 e (4)

where p0=ec and c is constant of integration.

Equation (1) is called Malthusian or exponential law of population growth model it predicts the
population growth model exponential with time.
EXAMPLES:
dy 2
1. =α +1
dα
2
dy =(α +1) d α

The f
2
∫ dy=⎰( α +1)dα

1
 2
∫ dy=⎰α dα +⎰ dα
1 3
y= α +α +c
3

2.
dy
=sin β
dβ
dy =sin βdp

Integrate both side

∫ dy=⎰sin ⁡βdβ
y=−cos β +c

where c is constant of integration.

ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
To estimate the future human population of Gezawa local government, the growth rate needed
to be,
P(t )= p0 e ,
kt

Where p0is the number of people in 1991 census while p(t) is the population census in 2006
census, t is the time in year, k is the growth rate.
Now we find the growth rate,
kt
p(t )= p0 e ,

p(t )=282,328 , k=? , p 0=154,629 , t=2006−1991=15

kt
p(t )= p0 e
15 k
282,328=154,629 e
282,328 15k
=e
154,629
15 k
1.8258=e
ln (1.8258)=15 k
0.6020
=k
15
K=0.0401 is the growth rate of Gezawa local government each year.

COMPUTATION OF GEZAWA LOCAL GOVERNMENT POPULATION

2
  ILUSTRATION 1
The population of Gezawa local government in1991 was 154,629; find it’s population at 2026
Solution:
p(t )=? , t=2026−1991=35 , k =0.0401 , p0 =154,629 ,
kt (0.0401)35
p(t )= p0 e =154,629 e =629,250 ,

p(t )= p(35)=629,250 ,

 ILUSTRATION 2
The population of Gezawa local government in1991 was154,629; find it’s population at 2027
Solution:
p(t )=? , t=2027−1991=36 , k =0.0401 , p 0=154,629 ,
kt (0.0401)36
p(t )= p0 e =154,629 e =654,996 ,

p(t )= p(36)=654,996 ,
 ILUSTRATION 3
The population of Gezawa local government in 1991 was 154,629; find it’s population at2028
Solution:
p(t )=? , t=2028−1991=37 , k =0.0401 , p0 =154,629 ,
kt (0.0401)37
p(t )= p0 e =154,629 e =681,795 ,

p(t )= p(37)=681,795 ,

 ILUSTRATION 4
The population of Gezawa local government in1991 was 154,629 ;find it’s population at 2029
Solution
p(t )=? , t=2029−1991=38 , k=0.0401, p0=154,629 ,
kt (0.0401)38
p(t )= p0 e =154,629 e =709,690 ,

p(t )= p(38)=709,690 ,
 ILUSTRATION 5
The population of Gezawa local government in 1991 was 154,629; find it’s population at 2030
Solution:

3
p(t )=? , t=2030−1991=39 , k=0.0401, p0=154,629 ,
kt (0.0401)39
p(t )= p0 e =154,629 e =738,729 ,

p(t )= p(39)=738,729 ,

 ILUSTRATION 6
The population of Gezawa local government in 1991 was 154,629; find it’s population at 2031
Solution:
p(t )=? , t=2031−1991=40 , k =0.0401 , p 0=154,629 ,
kt (0.0401)40
p(t )= p0 e =154,629 e =768,952 ,

p(t )= p(40)=768,952 ,
 ILUSTRATION 7
The population of Gezawa local government in1991 was 154,629; find it’s population at2032
Solution:
P(t )=? , t=2032−1991=41 , k=0.0401 , p0 =154,629
kt (0.0401)41
P(t )= p0 e =154,629 e =800,414

P(t )= p(41)=800,414

 ILUSTRATION 8
The population of Gezawa local government in 1991 was 154,629; find it’s population at 2033
Solution
p(t )=? , t=2033−1991=4 , k=0.0401 , p0=154,629 ,
kt (0.0401)42
p(t )= p0 e =154,629 e =833,162 ,

p(t )= p(42)=833,162 ,
 ILUSTRATION 9
The population of Gezawa local government in1991 was154,629; find it’s population at 2034
Solution
P(t )=? , t=2034−1991=43 , k=0.0401 , p0=154,629

4
 kt (0.0401)43
P(t )= p0 e =154,629 e =867,259

P(t )= p(43)=867,259

 ILUSTRATION 10
The population of Gezawa local government in 1991 was 154,629; find it’s population at 2035
Solution
P(t )=? , t=2035−1991=44 , k=0.0415401 , p0=,629
kt (0.0401)44
P(t )= p0 e =154,629 e =902,735

P(t )= p(44)=902,735

 ILUSTRATION 11
The population of Gezawa local government in 1991was 154,629; find it’s population at 2036
Solution:
p(t )=? , t=2036−1991=45 , k=0.0401 , p 0=154,629 ,
kt (0.0401)45
p(t )= p0 e =154,629 e =939,670 ,

p(t )= p( 45)=939,670 ,

 ILUSTRATION 12
The population of Gezawa local government in 1991 was154,629; find it’s population at 2037
Solution:
p(t )=? p t=2037−1991=46 , k=0.0401 , p 0=154,629 ,
kt (0.0401)46
p(t )= p e =154,629 e =978,116 ,
p(t )= p(46)=978,116 ,

 ILUSTRATION 13
The population of Gezawa local government in 1991 was 154,629; find it’s population at 2038
Solution:
p(t )=? , t=2038−1991=47 , k=0.0401 , p 0=154,629 ,
kt (0.0401)47
p(t )= p0 e =154,629 e =101,814 , 0 ,

p(t )= p( 47)=101,814 , 0 ,
5
  ILUSTRATION 14
The population of Gezawa local government in 1991 was 154,629; find it’s population at2039
Solution:
P(t )=? , t=2039−1991=48 , k =0.0401 , p 0=154,629
kt (0.0401)48
P(t )= p0 e =154,629 e =105,979 , 3

P(t )= p(48)=105,979 ,3

 ILUSTRATION 15
The population of Gezawa local government in 1991 was 154,629; find it’s population at2040
Solution:
P(t )=? , t=2040−1991=49 , k =0.0401 , p 0=154,629
kt (0.0401)49
P(t )= p0 e =154,629 e =110,315 , 4

P(t )= p(49)=110,315, 4
 ILUSTRATION 16
The population of Gezawa local government in 1991 was 154,629; find it’s population at2041
Solution:
p(t )=? , t=2041−1991=50 , k=0.0401 , p0=154,629 ,
kt (0.0401)50
p(t )= p0 e =154,629 e =114,828 ,9 ,

p(t )= p(50)=114,828 ,9 ,
 ILUSTRATION 17
The population of Gezawa local government in 1991 was 154,629; find it’s population at 2042
Solution
p(t )=? , t=2042−1991=51 , k=0.0401 , p 0=154,629 ,
kt (0.0401)51
p(t )= p0 e =154,629 e =119,527 ,2 ,

p(t )= p(51)=119,527 ,2 ,

6
  ILUSTRATION 18
The population of Gezawa local government in 1991 was 154,629; find it’s population at 2043
Solution
p(t )=? , t=2043−1991=52 , k=0.0401 , p0=154,629 ,
kt (0.0401)52
p(t )= p0 e =154,629 e =124,417 , 6 ,

p(t )= p(52)=124,417 , 6 ,

 ILUSTRATION 19
The population of Gezawa local government in 1991 was 154,629; find it’s population at 2044
Solution:
p(t )=? , t=2044−1991=53 , k =0.0401 , p 0=154,629 ,
kt (0.0401)53
p(t )= p0 e =154,629 e =129,508 , 1 ,

p/.(t )= p(53)=129,508 , 1 ,

 ILUSTRATION 20
The population of Gezawa local government in 199 was154,629; find it’s population at 2045
Solution:
p(t )=? , t=2045−1991=54 , k =0.0401 , p 0=154,629 ,
kt (0.0401)54
p(t )= p0 e =154,629 e =134,806 ,9 ,

p(t )= p(54)=134,806 , 9 .

YEAR PEOPLE
POPULATION
2026 629,250
2027 654,996
2028 681,795
2029 709,690
2030 738,727
2031 768,952
2032 800,414
2033 833,162
2034 867,251

7
2035 902,735
2 o 36 939,670
2037 978,116
2038 101,814 , 0
2039 105,979 , 3
2040 110,315, 4
2041 114,828 , 2
2042 119,527 ,2
2043 124,417 , 6
2044 129,508 , 1
2045 134806 , 9

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