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4. population forecasting by various methods

The document discusses various methods for population forecasting, including arithmetical, geometrical, and incremental increase methods, among others. It provides a detailed analysis of how to predict future populations based on historical census data and trends. Additionally, it outlines the challenges and considerations involved in accurately forecasting population changes over time.

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18 views5 pages

4. population forecasting by various methods

The document discusses various methods for population forecasting, including arithmetical, geometrical, and incremental increase methods, among others. It provides a detailed analysis of how to predict future populations based on historical census data and trends. Additionally, it outlines the challenges and considerations involved in accurately forecasting population changes over time.

Uploaded by

mohd.2125ce1060
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Topic 4

POPULATION FORECASTING METHODS AND PROBLEMS

When the design period is fixed the next step is to determine the population of a
town or city population of a town depends upon the factors like births, deaths, migration
and annexation. The future development of the town mostly depends upon trade expansion,
development industries, and surrounding country, discoveries of mines, construction of
railway stations etc may produce sharp rises, slow growth, stationary conditions or even
decrease the population. For the prediction of population, it is better to study the
development of other similar towns, which have developed under the same circumstances,
because the development of the predicted town will be more or less on the same lines.
The following are the standard methods by which the forecasting population is done

i. Arithmetical increase method


ii. Geometrical increase method
iii. Incremental increase method
iv. Simple graph method
v. Decrease rate of growth method
vi. Comparative graph method
vii. The master plan method

Problem: The following data have been noted from the census department.

YEAR POPULATION
1940 8000
1950 12000
1960 17000
1970 22500

Find the probable population in the year 1980, 1990 and 2000.

ARITHEMATICAL INCREASE METHOD

This method is based on the assumption that the population is increasing at a constant rate. The rate
of change of population with time is constant. The population after ‘n’ decades can be determined
by the formula.
YEAR POPULATION INCREASE IN
POPULATION
1940 8000 ---
1950 12000 4000
1960 17000 5000
1970 22500 5500
TOTAL 14500
AVERAGE 4833
Solution:
YEAR POPULATION
1980 22500 + 1 x 4833 = 27333
1990 22500 + 2 x 4833 = 32166
2000 22500 + 3 x 4833 = 36999

GEOMETRICAL INCREASE METHOD

This method is based on the assumption that the percentage increase in population from decade to
decade remains constant. In this method the average percentage of growth of last few decades is
determined, the population forecasting is done on the basis that percentage increase per decade will
be the same.
Year Population Increase in Percentage increase in
population population
1940 8000 ---
1950 12000 4000 4000 x 100 = 50%
8000
1960 17000 5000 5000 x 100 = 41.7%
12000
1970 22500 5500 5500 x 100 = 32.4%
17000
TOTAL 14500 124.1%
AVERAGE 4833 41.37%

The population at the end of various decades shall be as follows:

YEAR EXPECTED POPULATION


1980 22500 + 41.37 / 100 x 22500 = 31808
1990 31800 + 41.37 / 100 x 31800 = 49935
2000 49935 + 41.37 / 100 x 49395 = 68524

INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD

This method is improvement over the above two methods. The average increase in the population is
determined by the arithmetical method and to this is added the average of the net incremental increase
once for each future decade.

Solution:

Year Population Increase in Incremental


population increase
1940 8000 --- ---
1950 12000 4000 ---
1960 17000 5000 + 1000
1970 22500 5500 + 1500
TOTAL 14500 + 2500
AVERAGE 4833 1,250

The population at the end of the various decades shall be as follows:


YEAR EXPECTED POPULATION
1980 22500 + (4833 + 1250) x 1 = 28583
1990 22500 + (4833 + 1250) x 2 = 34666
2000 22500 + (4833 + 1250) x 3 = 40749

4. Decreasing Rate of Growth Method


Since the rate of increase in population goes on reducing as the cities reach towards saturation, this method is
suitable. In this method, the average decrease in the percentage increase is worked out, and is then subtracted
from the latest percentage increase for each successive decade.
NOTE: This method is applicable only when the rate of growth shows a downward trend.
In this method calculations are made for each successive decade.
Steps:
(i) Find increase in population.
(ii) Find % increase (r) for last count P0
(iii) Find decrease in the % increase in population. (r1) is actually decreasing then it is taken +ve and if r1 is
increasing it is -ve.
(iv) The expected population

5. Simple Graphical Method


A graph is plotted from the available data between time and population, the curve is then smoothly extended up
to the desired year.
6. Master Plan Method or Zoning Method
Big and Metropolitan cities are generally controlled by development authorities in a planned manner, Only those
expansions are allowed which are permitted or proposed in the master plan of that city and the populations are
also fixed.
Say for (example) 5 persons living in a flat etc.
7. The Ratio Method or Apportionment Method

 In this method the city's census population record is expressed as the % of the population of the whole
country, in order to do so, the local population and the countries population for last 4-5 decades is
obtained from the census records, The ratios of local population to national population is worked out a
graph is then plotted between those ratios and time and extended up to the design period and then ratio
is multiplied by expected national population at the end of design period.

 This method does not take into consideration abnormalities in local areas.
8. The Logistic Curve Method

 This method is given by P.F. Verhulst. This method is mathematical solution for logistic curve.

 The population at any time t from the start is given by

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