CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

Traffic engineering is a branch of transportation engineering that focuses on improving the

operation and safety of road networks and terminals. It combines systematic traffic studies,
scientific analysis, and technical applications to ensure the safe, efficient, convenient, and
cost-effective movement of people and goods. The primary aim of traffic engineering is to
optimize traffic flow while minimizing the number of accidents.

Speed is a critical aspect of transportation, influencing safety, travel time, comfort,

convenience, and economics. Vehicle speeds can vary significantly depending on factors
such as road geometry, traffic conditions, time of day, location, environment, and driver
behavior.

In this study, both spot speed and journey speed are analyzed on the route from Shialbari Mor
to Abashik Mor. The spot speed survey is conducted to assist in determining appropriate
speed limits, the potential need for pedestrian signals, and the placement of cautionary
signage. Travel speed studies are used to assess efficiency, calibrate traffic models, conduct
economic evaluations, and monitor performance before and after implementing
improvements.

To support the analysis, statistical tools such as the Wardrop equilibrium and Chi-square tests
are applied. Additionally, speed-delay time analysis is carried out to estimate the economic
cost of delays, offering a qualitative measure of service levels. The concept of Level of
Service (LOS) is also used to categorize traffic flow and assign quality ratings based on
parameters like speed and density.

1.2 Objectives

The primary objectives of this study are:

1. To record the spot speed and journey speed of various vehicle types under normal
traffic conditions.
2. To collect relevant traffic parameters including vehicle classification, time of travel,
and speed variations.
3. To compute and analyze the spot speed distribution, including statistical parameters
such as mean, mode, median, standard deviation, and percentile speeds.
4. To draw frequency histograms, frequency curves, and cumulative frequency curves
for spot speed data.
5. To determine key speed-related parameters such as weighted average speed, pace,
85th percentile speed (used for speed limit recommendations), and design speed.
6. To calculate and compare Time-Mean Speed (TMS) and Space-Mean Speed (SMS)
based on journey speed data.

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 7. To study relationships between speed, flow, and delay through curve-fitting and
regression analysis.
8. To develop a speed-flow curve and overlay a standard speed-flow relationship for
comparison.
9. To evaluate the Level of Service (LOS) of the studied route using performance
indicators such as speed, density, and delay.
10. To derive conclusions and propose recommendations based on the analysis to
improve traffic conditions on the selected route.

1.3 Need for the Study

Speed plays a vital role in traffic management and safety analysis. Conducting a traffic speed
study provides essential insights into how vehicles move through a particular corridor and
helps traffic engineers and urban planners make informed decisions regarding traffic control,
signage, enforcement, and infrastructure development.

The key needs for this study are:

• Setting Appropriate Speed Limits: Speed data helps in determining realistic speed
limits based on the 85th percentile speed, thereby enhancing safety and compliance.
• Evaluating Roadway Safety: Identifying locations with excessive speeding can
guide enforcement and education strategies to reduce crash risks.
• Designing Road Infrastructure: Spot speed studies are vital in designing geometric
features like sight distance, braking distance, and passing zones.
• Optimizing Traffic Signals: Speed data supports effective traffic signal timing,
especially in urban corridors with mixed traffic flows.
• Analyzing Delay and Travel Time: Journey speed studies highlight inefficiencies
and identify bottlenecks that require operational or structural improvements.
• Assessing the Effectiveness of Control Measures: Speed studies can evaluate the
success of enforcement programs, traffic calming devices, or newly implemented
policies.
• Quantifying Economic Impacts: Delay studies provide a basis for estimating the
economic cost of lost time and fuel due to traffic congestion.

1.4 Scope of the Study

This study is conducted as part of the Transportation Engineering Lab-III course and focuses
on collecting, analyzing, and interpreting traffic speed data along a selected urban corridor.
The scopes of this research include:

• Conducting spot speed studies at specific locations to understand the speed behavior
of free-flowing vehicles.
• Performing journey speed studies to measure average travel speed and determine the
efficiency of traffic movement.
• Analyzing delay patterns to identify congestion-prone sections and quantify time
losses.
• Applying statistical and graphical techniques to visualize and interpret the data.
• Assessing the Level of Service (LOS) of the route to classify traffic performance into
standardized categories.

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 Chapter 2
Literature Review

2.1 Road Design Considerations

Roadway design involves selecting specific elements like lane width, median type,
acceleration/deceleration lanes, and curve radii based on design speed, which affects road
geometry such as alignment and sight distance (Mannering & Kilareski, 1998).

2.2 Traffic Survey

Traffic data is essential for planning, designing, and evaluating road systems. It supports
decisions on traffic control devices, capacity improvements, and performance evaluation of
implemented schemes. Data must be collected systematically to reflect real-time conditions.

2.3 Purpose of Traffic Surveys

Traffic surveys help in:

• Traffic control and management

• Forecasting and planning
• Model validation
• Safety assessments

2.4 Components of Traffic Studies

Traffic studies include:

• Volume, speed, and density surveys

• Travel time and delay studies
• Parking demand, axle load, and accident studies
• Environmental impact assessments

2.5 Speed Studies

Speed data is crucial in all phases of traffic engineering to set limits, plan geometric designs,
and assess safety.

2.6 Speed Definition

Speed = Distance / Time.

• Average speed: total distance divided by total time.

• Instantaneous speed: measured at a specific time.

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2.7 Types of Speed

• Space Mean Speed (SMS): Harmonic mean of speeds; measured by floating car or
license plate methods.
• Time Mean Speed (TMS): Average of vehicle speeds at a fixed point.
• Free Flow Speed: Driver’s desired speed under low traffic conditions.
• Travel Speed: Includes delays; shows real journey effectiveness.
• Running Speed: Excludes stopped time; higher than travel speed.
• Percentile Speeds: Common values include 85th percentile (used for speed limits)
and 50th percentile (median speed).
• Design Speed: Maximum safe speed based on road geometry.

2.8 Delay Studies

Delay refers to extra time spent due to traffic or controls.

• Causes: Geometric factors, high volume, roadside activities

• Types:
o Fixed Delay: At signals or intersections
o Operational Delay: Due to congestion or maneuvers
o Recurrent: Regular peak-hour congestion
o Non-recurrent: Accidents or events

Uses include identifying bottlenecks, evaluating signal performance, and prioritizing road
improvements.

Common terms:

• VOC: Vehicle Operating Cost (fuel, maintenance, etc.)

• VOT: Value of Time (cost of lost time)
• VOR: Value of Reliability (cost for inconsistent travel times)

2.9 Chi-Square Test

A statistical method used to compare observed vs. expected values and test if data sets are
independent.

2.10 Level of Service (LOS)

LOS indicates the performance level of intersections based on vehicle delay:

• A: < 5s – Free flow

• B–C: 5–25s – Stable flow
• D: 25–40s – Noticeable delays
• E: 40–60s – Congested
• F: > 60s – Unacceptable

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 CHAPTER 3

METHODOLOGY

3.1 Introduction

The speed of travel is a critical indicator of travel quality and roadway safety. Speed is
defined as the rate of movement of a vehicle, typically expressed in kilometers per hour
(km/h) or miles per hour (mph). The primary goal of this study is to determine traffic
parameters, particularly vehicle speed. Spot speed measurements are usually conducted at a
specific point or short segment of road under free-flow conditions. The objective is to capture
the speeds chosen by drivers regardless of congestion, which aids in evaluating general speed
patterns, setting reasonable speed limits, and assessing safety conditions.

This chapter outlines existing methods for speed analysis, their respective advantages and
limitations, and discusses the methods adopted for the current study with justifications.

3.2 Methods of Spot Speed Study

Spot speed can be measured using two primary approaches:

• Manual Methods
• Automatic Methods

3.2.1 Manual Methods

Manual methods rely on human observers using simple mechanical devices. The accuracy of
these methods depends heavily on the observer's hand-eye coordination and skill.

3.2.1.1 Stopwatch Method

The stopwatch method is suitable for small-scale studies conducted over short durations. It is
a quick and low-cost way to collect spot speed data by measuring the time a vehicle takes to
travel a known distance.

Figure 3.1: Stopwatch Spot Speed Study

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3.2.2 Automatic Methods

Automatic methods use electronic or mechanical devices that function independently once
activated. These methods are generally more efficient and less error-prone compared to
manual techniques.

3.2.2.1 Radar Meter Method (Doppler Principle Meters)

Radar meters are widely used in spot speed studies. These devices measure speed based on
the Doppler Effect—the change in frequency between emitted and reflected radar waves from
a moving vehicle. Radar meters can be handheld, vehicle-mounted, or tripod-mounted, with
effective ranges from 200 feet to 2 miles.

Figure 3.2: Radar Meter Device

3.2.2.2 Pneumatic Method (Road Tube Detectors)

This method uses pneumatic tubes laid across the road lanes, connected to roadside recording
devices. It is typically used for longer data collection periods compared to stopwatch or radar
methods.

Figure 3.3: Pneumatic Road Tubes Figure 3.4: Road Tubes and Recorder

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3.3 Selected Method for the Current Study

Among the methods discussed, the Stopwatch Method was selected for the spot speed study
due to its simplicity and cost-effectiveness. Details of the experimental procedure are
described in the following section.

3.3.1 Justification for Choosing the Stopwatch Method

• Lack of access to modern speed-measuring devices

• Other methods involve higher financial investment
• Availability of sufficient manpower for manual observations

3.4 Methods of Travel Speed Measurement

Several techniques are available for measuring travel speed:

1. Floating Car Method

2. Average Speed Method
3. Moving Vehicle Method
4. Maximum Car Method
5. Elevated Observer Method
6. Photographic Method
7. License Plate Method
8. Interview Method

3.4.1 Floating Car Method

This method involves a test vehicle attempting to "float" in the traffic stream—overtaking as
many vehicles as it is overtaken by. With enough runs, this provides an estimate of the
median traffic speed. One observer logs delays and control point timings, while another
operates the vehicle.

Figure 3.6: Floating Car Method Illustration

3.4.2 Average Speed Method

The driver maintains an average speed representative of the general traffic flow.

3.4.3 Moving Vehicle Method

In this technique, an observer drives a test vehicle over a designated route and returns via the
same path. Observations are made in both directions to compute average travel speed.

3.4.4 Maximum Car Method

Here, the test driver travels as fast as safely possible without exceeding the road’s design
speed, aiming to capture the maximum achievable speed in typical traffic.

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3.4.5 Elevated Observer Method

Observers stationed at elevated positions (e.g., rooftops or overpasses) monitor traffic over a
stretch of road. They record vehicle times and delays, though finding adequate vantage points
can be a limitation.

3.4.6 Photographic Method

Used primarily for research, this method involves filming traffic to analyze spacing, speed,
lane changes, delays, and more. It is suitable only for short study segments due to equipment
limitations.

3.4.7 License Plate Method

This method involves recording vehicle license plate numbers at multiple checkpoints and
matching them to determine travel times.

Four variants of this method include:

1. Manual recording
2. Portable computer-assisted recording
3. Video recording with manual transcription
4. Video recording with automatic character recognition

3.4.8 Interview Method

This approach involves asking employees or travelers to report their travel times, usually as
part of a broader field study. It is low-cost and useful for collecting large volumes of data
quickly.

3.5 Methods Used for the Current Study

Selection of speed study methods depends on resource availability, required accuracy, and
data needs. For this study:

• Spot Speed was measured using the manual stopwatch method.

• Travel Speed was measured using the manual license plate matching method.

3.5.1 Justification for Manual Methods

• Lack of modern speed and travel-time measuring devices

• High cost of advanced equipment
• Sufficient availability of manpower for manual data collection

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 CHAPTER 4
DATA COLLECTION

4.1 Background

To carry out the speed study, the Stopwatch Method was used for spot speed measurement,
and the Manual License Plate Matching Method was employed for travel speed
determination. This chapter outlines the data collection process. Since this report was
prepared by Group 1, their data is presented in detail, while data from other groups is
summarized.

4.2 Data Collection History

• Study Route: Shialbari Mor to Abashik Mor

• Observation Direction: East to West (one-way)
• Date: 06 May 2025
• Day: Tuesday
• Observation Duration: 30 minutes
• Weather Condition: Sunny
• Vehicle Classification:
o Auto Rickshaw
o Light Vehicles (Car, Jeep, Microbus, Ambulance)
o CNG
o Motorcycle
o Non-Motorized Vehicles (NMVs)
• Speed Study Methods:
o Spot Speed: Stopwatch Method
o Travel Speed: Manual License Plate Method
o Additional Technique:
Each group used smartphones calibrated beforehand. Two enumerators per
group were stationed—one at the starting point ( Shialbari Mor) and another at
the endpoint (Russell Square). Vehicles were photographed at both points
from the divider or footpath, capturing the front side and number plate. By
comparing timestamps and matching number plates, travel times were
determined for individual vehicles.

4.3 Spot Speed Data Collection

Spot speed data were collected over a distance of 85 feet between two enumerators, observed
continuously for 30 minutes. The method followed was the manual stopwatch technique, with
the following equipment used:

• Stopwatch
• Tally Sheet
• Hand Counter

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Table 4.1: Spot Speed Data of Group 1

Direction: East to West (Shialbari Mor to Abashik Mor)

(Insert Table 4.1 here with clearly labeled columns such as Vehicle Type, Time Taken (sec),
Distance (ft), Speed (km/h), etc.)

Average
Type of No. of Distance
Time (sec) Velocity (mph) Velocity
Vehicle Vehicle (ft)
(mph)
1 85 2.1 28.7
Auto Rickshaw 2 85 2.3 26.1
26.8
(AR) 3 85 2.4 25.1
4 85 2.2 27.4
1 85 2.0 30.0
2 85 2.1 28.7
Motorcycle (MC) 29.4
3 85 1.9 31.6
4 85 2.2 27.4
1 85 3.0 20.0
2 85 2.8 21.4
Leguna 20.1
3 85 3.1 19.8
4 85 3.2 19.3
1 85 2.5 24.0
2 85 2.6 23.2
Private Car 23.8
3 85 2.4 25.1
4 85 2.7 22.7
1 85 4.0 15.0
Office Bus 15.3
2 85 3.8 15.6
Covered van/Tr 1 85 4.5 13.2 13.4
2 85 4.2 13.6

4.4 Travel Speed Data Collection

Table 4.2 : Travel Speed Data of in E-W direction(Shialbari Mor to Abashik Mor)

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 Section Travel
Entry
Vehicle Type Reg. No. Exit Time Length Time, t Speed,vi (mph)
Time
(mile) (sec)
Auto Rickshaw AR132 12:00 12:03 180 12.0
(AR) AR768 12:05 12:08 180 12.0
Motorcycle LA488 12:01 12:03 120 18.0
(MC) HA908 12:10 12:13 180 12.0
0.6
Leguna LG654 12:00 12:05 300 7.2
Private Car PC147 12:03 12:06 180 12.0

Office Bus OB258 12:04 12:09 300 7.2

Truck TR693 12:06 12:12 360 6.0

CHAPTER 5
DATA ANALYSIS
5.1 Background

Spot Speed and Travel Speed Analysis

This chapter focuses on two types of speed measurements in traffic engineering: spot speed
and travel speed.

Spot Speed Analysis

Spot speed refers to the instantaneous speed of a vehicle at a specific location. The analysis
involves:

• Organizing speed data in tabular form for statistical evaluation.

• Creating visual representations such as histograms, frequency curves, and
cumulative frequency curves.
• Calculating key parameters including:
o Weighted average speed
o Pace
o Modal speed
• Reviewing relevant factors like speed limits and design speed.

Travel Speed Analysis

Travel speed represents the average speed over a given road section. The chapter includes:

• Calculation of:

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 o Time-mean speed (average of speeds over time)
o Space-mean speed (based on time taken to travel a known distance)
• Demonstrating that space-mean speed is always less than or equal to time-mean
speed, using the Wardrop relationship.
• Estimating vehicle delays by comparing actual travel speed to the assumed free-flow
spot speed.
• Calculating delay costs based on:
o The user-defined Value of Travel Time (VOT)
o Vehicle occupancy rates
o Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC)

Speed-Flow Relationship

The chapter also covers the speed-flow curve, an essential tool for evaluating the Level of
Service (LOS) on roadways.

Spot Speed Analysis in W-E Direction (Shialbari Mor to Abashik

Mor)
In a similar pattern, speed data were collected for Abashik MorSection to Shialbari Mor, and
histogram, frequency curve, and cumulative frequency curves were plotted.

For Group-06 (detail calculations are shown of Table A-03 in Appendix ‘A’) Table 5.5:
Average Spot Speed of vehicles of Group-6

Name of the Vehicle CAR Motor Cycle Microbus (mph) BUS Pickup
(mph) (mph) (mph) (mph)
Vavg (mph) 18.4 18.3 16.5 14.9 12.9

➢ From the data of Group 3, it is evident that the motorcycle has the highest
speed (24.3mph). Just when the signal goes green, most of the motorcycles
being at the front accelerated, and since there was no obstruction to the
flow, they reached a higher speed, and hence the average speed was higher
compared to other classified vehicles.
➢ Again bus has the lowest speed (11.4 mph). This is mainly the side friction
associated with their size and nature of service (i.e. bus has a tendency to
stop and go for recruiting). Especially in our country, this tendency is quite
common.
➢ Cars are the dominating type of vehicles with an average speed of 20.3
mph.

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For Group-02 (detail calculations are shown of Table A-04 in Appendix ‘A’)
Table 5.6: Average Spot Speed of vehicles of Group-2

Name of the Vehicle LV Motor Cycle AR BUS

(mph) (mph) (mph) (mph)
Vavg (mph) 15.4 18.9 14.7 14.9

➢ As we can see, the dominating speed of motor cycle has reduced from 24.3 mph to 18.8
mph and the speed of bus has increased from 11.4 mph to 14 mph. This is because, near
an intersection, bus has a tendency to reduce speed but in a free section it has increased
speed. As a result, small vehicle like motorbike has a reduced speed. Safety becomes a
priority.
➢ Overall the speed of all vehicles was reduced because there was a curve right before the
strip of 88feet. So vehicles had to accommodate a turn and then accelerate. As a result,
time taken to cover 88ft was greater compared to the time required to cover the same
distance in case of group 3. From the intersection, there was a straight way up to a certain
distance.
➢ Moreover, the reduction in speed can also be explained by the roadside development.
There were high rise buildings nearby which are traffic generators and lead to side
frictions. These buildings had no parking, so cars and vehicles had to park on the street
illegally. So, they interrupted the flow of through traffic.

For Group-04 (detail calculations are shown of Table A-05 in Appendix ‘A’) Table 5.7:
Average Spot Speed of vehicles of Group-4

Name of the Vehicle CAR Motor Cycle AR BUS

(mph) (mph) (mph) (mph)
Vavg (mph) 15.8 19.7 18.6 18.7

➢ From the data, it is observed the average speed of Car is now significantly higher. The
speed of Bus has also increased compared to that in the previous section.
As the vehicles were nearing an intersection, their speed should be reduced. This is because, at an
intersection, the signal can change to red at any moment since in our country the signals are
manually operated by traffic police. But they chose an uninterrupted strip away from a certain
distance of intersection.

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5.2.1 Statistical analysis table (Shialbari Mor to Abashik Mor
direction/E-W direction)
Frequency Distribution of Spot Speed Data

A frequency distribution table was developed using individual vehicle speeds recorded in the field.
The spot speed data collected along the Shialbari Mor to Abashik Mor direction were grouped into
speed classes, and the number of vehicles falling within each class was counted.

The resulting frequency distribution table shows the number of vehicles observed in each speed
range. To determine the percentage frequency, the frequency of each class was divided by the total
number of observed vehicles, then multiplied by 100. This percentage frequency helps in
understanding the proportion of vehicles traveling within each speed range.

Table 5.4: Statistical analysis table (Shialbari Mor to Abashik Mor direction/E-W direction)

Number of
Mid Speed V Cumulative %
Speed Range (Kmph) Vehicles % Frequency
(Kmph) Frequencies
observed (f)

0-5 2.5 0 0.0 0.0

5-10 7.5 2 1.61 1.61

10-15 12.5 6 4.84 6.45

15-20 17.5 10 8.06 14.51

20-25 22.5 17 13.71 28.22

25-30 27.5 18 14.52 42.74

30-35 32.5 25 20.16 62.9

35-40 37.5 20 16.13 79.03

40-45 42.5 12 9.68 88.71

45-50 47.5 10 8.06 96.77

50-55 52.5 2 1.61 98.38

55-60 57.5 1 0.81 99.19

60-65 62.5 1 0.81 100.0

Total 124 100 100

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The weighted average speed was obtained by dividing the summation of the product of speed
and frequency by the summation of frequency. For the Shialbari Mor to Abashik Morsection, the
weighted average speed is 29.57 Kmph. (Detail calculations are shown of Table B-01 in Appendix
‘B’)

5.2.2 Flow Histogram (Shialbari Mor to Abashik Mor direction/E-W

direction)

It will display data on percent frequency versus speed range. From this, we can deduce the
maximum speed at which the majority of vehicles are likely to drive.

Figure 5.1: Flow histogram in E-W direction

➢ From the histogram, it can be observed that most vehicles have speed range between 30-
35 Kmph. This is around 22.67 %. Vehicles having speed in the 15-20 Kmph range was also
significant with a percentage frequency of around 15.33 %.

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 ➢ Velocity less than 5mph is very rare. The velocity of vehicles within the 5-10mph are
mostly due to non-motorized vehicles like rickshaw.

➢ From speed data we can say there is no free flow nor “stop and go” situation ➢ Very few
vehicles around 2% are within 60 to 65 Kmph

5.2.3 Frequency Curve (Shialbari Mor to Abashik Mor direction/E-W

direction)

This curve plots %frequency vs spot speed. From here we get

➢ Modal speed
➢ Pace of traffic stream
➢ Average speed
➢ Upper and lower speed limit regulation

Design speed

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 Figure 5.2: Frequency Distribution for Spot Speed in E-W direction
So, we can conclude-

➢ Modal speed 35 Kmph for this road and traffic condition. This is the speed that has the
highest frequency and therefore indicates the optimum speed that drivers want to maintain
in the roadway under concern.
➢ Pace is in between 32 Kmph and 37.5 Kmph. That is most drivers are seen driving with a 5.5
mph difference, and in between these speeds.
➢ As the curve is nearly symmetric, so median speed should be close to 35 Kmph.

5.2.4 Cumulative Frequency Distribution (Shialbari Mor to Abashik

Mordirection/E-W direction)

It provides us with several data

➢ Design speed

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➢ Safe speed
➢ Speed limits
➢ Median speed

➢ From the cumulative frequency graph, the 98th percentile corresponds to the design
speed. So the design speed for this road from Shialbari Mor to Abashik Morsection is 97
Kmph.
➢ The median speed is the speed corresponding to the 50th percentile. From the graph, we
can see the median speed is 50 Kmph.
➢ The 15th percentile speed is 10 Kmph and the 85th percentile speed is 82 Kmph. These are
the lower and upper-speed limits. The speed range is therefore 8.5mph-
60.5mph.

5.4 Fitting Normal Distribution Curve

5.4.1 Standard Deviation for Car

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 In order to fit a normal distribution curve, firstly we need to know the mean and standard
deviation of the speed for the particular vehicle. Standard deviation is a measure of the
dispersion of a set of data from its mean. If the data points are further from the mean, there is a
higher deviation within the data set. Standard deviation is calculated as the square root of
variance by determining the variation between each data point relative to the mean. The
following table shows the calculation of mean and standard deviation for Car. Table 5.9:
Standard Deviation for Car

No. of
Mid-
Vehicle
Speed Point Standard
s Mean yi = xi -
Range (xi) fixi fiyi fiyi^2 Deviation
Observe ( x̅ ) x̅
(kmph) (kmph (sd)
d
)
(fi)
0-5 2.5 0 0.0 -29.073 -0.000 0.00
5-10 7.5 2 15.0 -24.073 -48.145 1158.98

10-15 12.5 6 75.0 -19.073 -114.435 2182.58

15-20 17.5 10 175.0 -14.073 -140.726 1980.38

20-25 22.5 17 382.5 -9.073 -154.234 1399.30

25-30 27.5 18 495.0 -4.073 -73.306 298.55

31.573 10.75
30-35 32.5 25 812.5 0.927 23.185 21.50
35-40 37.5 20 750.0 5.927 118.548 702.69
40-45 42.5 12 510.0 10.927 131.129 1432.90

45-50 47.5 10 475.0 15.927 159.274 2536.83

50-55 52.5 2 105.0 20.927 41.855 875.91

55-60 57.5 1 57.5 25.927 25.927 672.23

60-65 62.5 1 62.5 30.927 30.927 956.51

Total 124 3915.0 -0.000 14218.35

Here, mean and standard deviation was estimated using following formulas as shown in the
table.
Mean (x-bar) = 31.573

Standard Deviation (sigma) = 10.75

5.4.2 Chi(χ2) Test for Car

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A chi-squared test, also written as χ2 test, is any statistical hypothesis test wherein the sampling
distribution of the test statistic is chi-squared distribution when the null hypothesis is true.
Without other qualifications, the 'chi-squared test' often is used as short for Pearson's
chisquared test. The chi-squared test is used to determine whether there is a significant
difference between the expected frequencies and the observed frequencies in one or more
categories. For normal distribution curve fitting a statistical chart is shown in the table. Table
5.10 : Chi(χ2) Test for Car

Probablity
Upper
of Speed
Speed Cumulat Obse
Speed lying Theoretical Chisquare
Class u= ive between rved
Rang Frequency E Value c2
Limit xi -x̅ ( xi x̅ Probabili successive Freq
e = = (O -
(xi) )/sd ty uenc y
(kmp) values of (∑O)(DP) E)^2/E
(kmph P(=< u) (O)
xi
) (DP)
0-5 5 -26.573 -2.47 0.0067 0.0067 0 0.83
5-10 10 -21.573 -2.01 0.0224 0.0157 2 1.95
10-15 15 -16.573 -1.54 0.0616 0.0392 6 4.86
15-20 20 -11.573 -1.08 0.1409 0.0793 10 9.83
20-25 25 -6.573 -0.61 0.2705 0.1296 17 16.07
25-30 30 -1.573 -0.15 0.4419 0.1714 18 21.25
30-35 35 3.427 0.32 0.6251 0.1832 25 22.72
35-40 40 8.427 0.78 0.7834 0.1583 20 19.63
40-45 45 13.427 1.25 0.8941 0.1107 12 13.73
45-50 50 18.427 1.71 0.9567 0.0626 10 7.76
50-55 55 23.427 2.18 0.9853 0.0286 2 3.55
55-60 60 28.427 2.64 0.9959 0.0106 1 1.31

60-65 65 33.427 3.11 0.9991 0.0032 1 0.40

65-70 70 38.427 3.57 0.9998 0.0007 0 0.09

Total =
0.9998 124 123.98

Here the cumulative probability for each class was obtained with the use of normal distribution
function chart values and their individual probability from the difference. The theoretical
frequency obtained was used for drawing the theoretical normal distribution curve as shown in
the figure below. Chi-square value for each class was also obtained.

20
Thus the goodness of the fit was checked by superimposing the observed normal distribution
curve upon the theoretical curve as shown in figure 2.

Goodness of Fit Test

30.00

25.00

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
-5.00

Speed(kmph)
Expected Observed

Figure 5.8: Goodness of the fit Test Graph

21
 For the following range of speed 0-5, 50-60, 60-70 kmph, the observed frequency is less than 5.
So the corresponding values were added with the next data. As a result, chi-square values were
corrected as shown in the table below.

Table 5.11 : Corrected Chi(χ2) Test for Car

Probablity
Spee Upper of Speed
Speed Cumulat lying Observe Theoretical
d Chi-square
u=( ive between d
Rang Class Frequency E Value c2
xi x̅ Probablit succesive Frequen
e Limit = = (O -
)/sd y cy
(kmp (xi) values of (∑O)(DP) E)^2/E
P(=< u) (O)
h) (kmph) xi
(DP)

0-15 15 -1.54 0.0616 0.0616 8 7.64

15-20 20 -1.08 0.1409 0.0793 10 9.83

20-25 25 -0.61 0.2705 0.1296 17 16.07
25-30 30 -0.15 0.4419 0.1714 18 21.25
30-35 35 0.32 0.6251 0.1832 25 22.72
35-40 40 0.78 0.7834 0.1583 20 19.63
40-45 45 1.25 0.8941 0.1107 12 13.73
45-50 50 1.71 0.9567 0.0626 10 7.76
50-55 55 2.18 0.9853 0.0286 2 3.55
55-60 60 2.64 0.9959 0.0106 1 1.31
60-65 65 3.11 0.9991 0.0032 1 0.40
65-70 70 3.57 0.9998 0.0007 0 0.09

0-15 15 -1.54 0.0616 0.0616 8 7.64

15-20 20 -1.08 0.1409 0.0793 10 9.83

Total =
1.1407 142 141.45

Chi-square value observed = 3.42

Now, no. of observations (class range) = 5

No. of independent parameters = 2

Degree of freedom = 5 - 2 - 1 = 2

22
For DOF = 2 & 95% LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE, Critical Chi-square value from table = 0.103

So Chi-square observed > Chi-square critical

Goodness of Fit Test

30.00

25.00

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
-5.00

Speed(kmph)
Expected Observed

Figure 5.9: Corrected Goodness of fit Test Graph

5.5 Travel Speed Study

If we analyze the data we can find the vehicle matching and the percentage of matching: Table
5.12: Total Percentage matched in License Plate Method

Vehicle % total
Vehicle Type Counted Matched % Matched
matched
Auto Rickshaw 60 15 25.00

Motorcycle 45 12 26.67

Laguna 20 5 25.00
24.49
Private Car 15 2 13.33

Office Bus 4 1 25.00

Truck 3 1 33.33

From Table C-01 in Appendix ‘C’- Summary

23
5.5.1 Calculation of Time-mean and Space-mean Speed

From the observation between Shialbari Mor to

Abashik Mor: n = Number of observations = 38

Sum of individual speeds = 312.45 mph s = space

distance = 0.59 mile t = mean travel time = 13400

sec = 3.72 hrs

So, time-mean speed, Vt = Sum/n = 312.45/38 = 8.22 mph

And space-mean speed, Vs = (n * s) / t = (38 * 0.59) / 3.72 = 6.03 mph

Hence, it is proved that space-mean speed < time-mean speed (Vs < Vt)

• From Table C-02 in Appendix 'C'

• Abashik Mor to Shialbari Mor (E-W direction) From the above table we find

that, n = Number of observations = 27 Sum of individual speeds = 326.02 mph s = space

distance = 0.59-mile t = mean travel time = 5340 sec = 1.48 hrs

• So, time-mean speed, Vt = Sum/n = 326.02 / 27 = 12.07 mph

• And space-mean speed, Vs = (n * s) / t = (27 * 0.59) / 1.48 = 10.76 mph
• So for both cases, we can see that space-mean speed is lower than time-mean speed
(Vs < Vt).
• Hence it is proved.
• Shialbari Mor to Abashik Mor(E-W
direction) From the above table we find that,
n= Number of observations = 27

∑v = Sum of individual speeds = 326.02 mph

s= space distance= .59 mile t= mean travel
time = 5340 sec = 1.48 hrs.

So, time-mean speed, Vt = ∑v/n = 326.02 /27 = 12.07 mph and

space-mean speed, Vs= (n*s)/t = (27*.59)/ 1.48 = 10.76 mph

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So for both cases, we can see that space-mean speed is lower than time-mean speed (Vs<Vt).
Hence it is proved.

5.5.2 The Wardrop Relationship

Table 5.13: Wardrop Relationship ( Shialbari Mor to Russell Square)

Wardrop Relationship( Shialbari Mor to Russell Square)

Standard Deviation, Space-mean Time-mean Speed, Vt

Variance, ∂s^2
∂s speed, Vs (Wardrop)

2.88 8.29 5.5 6.41

25
Summary:

Here, Standard deviation, s = 2.88

Variance, s^2 = 8.29

Table 5.14: Wardrop Relationship (Shialbari Mor to Abashik mor)

Wardrop Relationship (Shialbari Mor to Abashik mor)

Standard Deviation, Space-mean Time-mean Speed, Vt

Variance, ∂s^2
∂s speed, Vs (Wardrop)

3.5 12.25 10.76 12.28

Summary:

Here, Standard deviation, s = 3.5

Variance, s^2 = 12.25

So, from equation Vt (wardrop) = 12.28 mph

5.6 Delay Study

In order to estimate the delay in each direction, we need the number of vehicles passing through
the section in 4 hours according to our duration of survey.

Number of Vehicles in Four Hours

The following table shows the number of vehicles of each type flowing in each direction in a
specific time travel.

26
Table 5.15 : Number of Vehicles in Four Hours

East to West West to East

Vehicle Class
Vehicles/hr Vehicles/4hr Vehicles/hr Vehicles/4hr

Bus (B) 7 28 8 32

Truck (T) 0 0 3 12

Light Vehicle (LV) 347 1388 532 2128

Auto Rickshaw (AR) 158 632 168 672

SPT 0 0 0 0

Motor Cycle (MC) 150 600 379 1516

Table 5.16: Delay East to West for light vehicles, Auto rickshaws, and Motorcycle

1 180 0.59 120 60 6067

LV 0.0147 1388 20.41 7.012 58396 8342 122.7 1.355 11304
5
18 420 0.59 180 240 4920
AR 0.0262 632 16.55 7.012 26590 3799 99.48 1.355 5147
3
25 120 0.59 120 0
26 180 0.59 120 60 1981
MC 0.0111 600 6.667 7.012 25243 3606 40.07 1.355 4886
7
27 180 0.59 120 60

The table shows the average delay for light vehicles, Auto rickshaws, and Motorcycle. The delay
for 4 hours was then calculated. Using AADT, the total delay in hours per vehicle per year was
calculated to be 60675 for light vehicles, 49203 for Auto rickshaws, and 19817 for Motorcycle
respectively. This was the delay for vehicles traveling from Shialbari Mor to Russell Square.

Table 5.17: Cost of Delay

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 Vehicle Class

Light Vehicle (LV)

22.3 1.5 25 60675 216709 3628365 12959198

Auto Rickshaw
26.9 1 25 49203 113749 2553636 5903573 33385971
(AR)
Motor Cycle (MC)
7.6 1 25 19817 236048 646034 7695165

The above table shows the total cost of delay for light vehicles, Auto rickshaws, and Motorcycle.
This is obtained by adding up the cost of delay in both directions.

The total cost of Delay per year = 33385971 Taka

5.7 Benefit-Cost ratio Analysis

A benefit-cost ratio is used in the formal discipline of cost-benefit analysis that attempts to
summarize the overall value for money of a project or proposal. A BCR is the ratio of the benefits
of a project or proposal, expressed in monetary terms, relative to its costs, also expressed in
monetary terms. All benefits and costs should be expressed in discounted present values.

Benefit-cost ratio (BCR) takes into account the amount of monetary gain realized by performing
a project versus the amount it costs to execute the project. The higher the BCR the better the
investment. The general rule of thumb is that if the benefit is higher than the cost the project is a
good investment.

Table 5.18 Delay cost after 20 years

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 No. of
Present Delay Cost Rate years Delay Cost 20 years later

A r n A(1+r)^n

33385971 0.06 20 107073332

Considering the internal rate of return of 6%

Delay cost over 20 years = 107073332 Taka

Cost of a new three-lane of 1km urban road = 55,00,000 Taka

So, the Benefit-cost ratio =107,073,332/(2*55,00,000)=9.73 > 1

So, the project is economically feasible.

5.8 Speed (space-mean) Flow Curve

The relationship between speed and flow has been a topic of intense research in traffic flow
theory. Assuming that traffic conditions on a given road segment are stationary and that drivers
behave the same way, on average, under the same average conditions, a relationship between
speed and flow exists.

29
 Figure 5.10: An Ideal Speed (space-mean)-Flow Curve

5.8.1 Determination of level of Service

Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) used travel speed and volume by capacity ratio (v/c ratio) to
distinguish between various levels of service. The value of v/c ratio can vary between 0 and 1.
Depending upon the travel speed and v/c ratio, HCM has defined six levels of service, level A to
level F based on a graph between operating speed and v/c ratio as shown in the figure.

30
 Figure 5.11: LOS Determination from typical speed flow relationship diagram

Level of service A represents the zone of free flow. Here the traffic volume will be less, traffic will
be experiencing free ow also. The drivers will be having the complete freedom to choose their
desired speed. Level of service B represents zone of reasonably free flow. Free flow speeds are
still maintained at this level of service. The drivers’ freedom to choose their desired speed is only
slightly restricted. At level of service C, the presence of other vehicles begins to restrict the
maneuverability within the traffic stream. Average speeds remain at or near the free flow speed
level, but significant increase in driver vigilance is required at this level. At level of service D, the
average speeds begin to decline with increasing flows. Freedom to maneuver within the traffic
stream is noticeably restricted. At this level, density deteriorates more quickly with flow. Level of
service E define operation at capacity. At this level, the stream reaches its maximum density
limit. There will be no usable gaps in the stream and even slight disruptions will cause a
breakdown, with queues forming rapidly behind the disruption. Level of service F describes
conditions in a queue that has formed behind a point of breakdown or disruption. As vehicles
shuffle through the queue, there may be periods when they move quickly, and others when they
are stopped completely. Thus, this level of service is used to describe the point of breakdown as
well, even though operations downstream of such a breakdown may appear good. Level of
service F represents the region of forced flow, having low speed and complete breakdown of the
system. For determining level of service of the roadway,The volume

31
Capacity ratio of the roadway was determined with the use of following table

Table 5.19: LOS Determination Table

Volume Avg Volm Space-mean

Direction Time V/C ratio
PCU/Hr PCU/hr Speed

8:00-8:30 859.5
Shialbari Mor to
9:00-9:30 1184 1051.67 0.26 10.76
Abashik Mor
10:00-
1111.5
10:30
11:00-
11:30 1682
Shialbari Mor to
12:00- 1841.83 0.46 5.5
Abashik mor 1928.5
12:30
1:00-1:30 1915

Table 5.20: Estimation of Average ADT for the Roadway

Direction ADT Average ADT Capacity

Shialbari Mor to Abashik Mor 20112

26623.5 3993.525

Abashik Mor to Shialbari 33135

Mor

Here capacity was estimated in the following manner:

Capacity = Peak Factor(k) x ADT = 0.15 x 26623.5=3993.525

32
Here, peak factor(k) was considered 15% of Average ADT. Average ADT was estimated from the
ADT obtained for each direction in the volume study of the corresponding survey location as
shown in table 2.

As shown in table 1, for Shialbari Mor signal to Abashik Mordirection a point (V/C ratio = 0.26,
space mean speed = 10.76 mph) was obtained and was superimposed over the ideal theoretical
LOS graph as shown in figure 2.

(0.26,10.76)

Figure 5.12 : LOS for Shialbari Mor to Abashik MorDirection

From the Graph the level of service = F

As shown in table 1, for Shialbari Mor to Abashik mor direction a point (V/C ratio = 0.26,
space mean speed = 10.76 mph) was obtained and was superimposed over the ideal
theoretical LOS graph as shown in figure 3.

33
 (0.46,5.5)

Figure 5.13 : LOS for Shialbari Mor to Abashik mor Direction

From the Graph in figure 3, no level of service can be determined as the superimposed point is
outside of the theoretical speed flow curve.

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