Yr10 Extended

Unit 4
Probability

A - Empirical probability
Empirical probabilities are those which are estimated from observations.

The probability of an event A occurring is denoted by Pr(A)

From observation, we can estimate Pr(A) as:

number of times A occurs

 Pr(A) =
number of times A could have occured

Example 1
A six-sided die is rolled 200 times and a ‘6’ comes up 40 times.

(a) Use this data to estimate the probability of rolling a ‘6’.

(b) Suppose the die is rolled a further 35 times. Assuming that the probability remains the same, estimate the
number of ‘6’s that would occur.

B - Theoretical probability
Theoretical probability allows us to predict a probability before doing any experiments. This is done by
making a sample space which contains all the possible outcomes.

number of times A occurs in the sample space

 Pr(A) =
number of items in the sample space

This is often written as:

n(A)
 Pr(A) =
n(U )

This definition ensures  0 ≤ Pr(A) ≤ 1 . It also tells us that if  Pr(A) = 0 , the event A is impossible and if
 Pr(A) = 1 , the event A is certain. As the value of  Pr(A) increases, so the likelihood of A occurring increases.

Example 2
(a) For a family with two children, list the sample space for the sexes of the children, assuming no twins.

(b) Hence find the theoretical probability that the two children are a boy and a girl.

Example 3
What is the probability of getting a sum of 7 when two fair dice are rolled?
Yr10 Extended
Unit 4
Probability

The complement of an event

An event either happens or does not. Everything other than the event happening is called the complement of
the event. The complement of event A is denoted by  A′ .

An event and its complement are said to be mutually exclusive, which means they cannot both happen. Since
we know one of them must happen, they have a total probability of 1 and we can deduce the following
important result.

 Pr(A) + Pr( A′ ) = 1

Example 4
Two fair dice are rolled. What is the probability that the sum of the scores is greater than 2?

Example 5
When a die is rolled, find the probability that the outcome is:

(a) odd and a prime number

(b) odd or a prime number.

C - Combined events and Venn diagrams

‘And’ and ‘or’ are two of the most common ways of combining events and are known in mathematical
language as ‘intersection’ and ‘union’ respectively. They are given the following symbols:

 A ∩ B is the intersection of A and B, meaning that both A and B happen.

 A ∪ B is the union of A and B, meaning that either A happens, or B happens, or both happen.

Venn diagrams can be used to illustrate the concepts of union and intersection.

From looking at the Venn diagram for the union of A and B, we can see that if we want to count the number
of ways of getting A or B, count the number of ways of getting A and add that to the number of ways of
getting B, then subtract the number of ways of getting A and B since it would have been counted twice. This
leads us to the following very important formula.

 Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) − Pr(A ∩ B)

If there is no possibility of A and B occurring at the same time, then  Pr(A ∩ B) = 0 . The events are mutually
exclusive and the formula reduces to:

 Pr(A ∪ B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B)

Yr10 Extended
Unit 4
Probability

Example 6
1
A chocolate is selected randomly from a box. The probability of it containing nuts is  . The probability of
4
1 1
it containing caramel is  . The probability of it containing both nuts and caramel is  . What is the
3 6
probability of a randomly chosen chocolate containing either nuts or caramel or both?

D - Tree diagrams
Tree diagrams are a useful way of calculating the probability of two successive or simultaneous events
happening by displaying all the possible combinations of outcomes. Its initial branches illustrate all the
possible outcomes for one of the events. Then, from these, further branches are drawn that represent all the
possible outcomes for the next event. Probabilities are written on each of the branches and these will add to 1
for each of the events.

Example 7
If I revise, there is an 80% chance I will pass the test; but if I do not revise, there is only a 30% chance of
3
passing. I revise for  of tests. What proportion of tests can I expect to pass?
4

Example 8
Find the probability of getting at least one head when you toss four fair coins.

E - Independent events
Independent events are those which do not affect each other. i.e. knowing that event B has occurred has no
impact on the probability of A subsequently happening and the following important relationship is true for all
independent events.

If A and B are independent events, then:

 Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A)Pr(B)

This equation is a defining feature of independent events and so to prove that two events are independent, we
simply need to show that they satisfy it.
Yr10 Extended
Unit 4
Probability

Example 9
Pr(A) = 0.5, Pr(B) = 0.2 and  Pr ( A ∪ B ) = 0.6 . Are the events A and B independent?

Example 10
A and B are independent events with  Pr ( A ∪ B ) = 0.8 and Pr(A) = 0.2. Find Pr(B).

F - Conditional probability
Conditional probability involves the calculation of a probability whereby information known about another
event that has already occurred affects the subsequent chance of the second event happening.

Example 11
2
Given that the number rolled on a die is prime, show that the probability that it is odd is  .
3

For two events A and B, the conditional probability of A given B is the probability that A occurs given that B
has already occurred.

It is written as  A | B and read as “A given B”

One very important formula for conditional probability is:

P(A ∩ B)
 P(B | A) =
P(A)

Example 12
1
The probability that a randomly chosen resident of a certain city is a millionaire is  .
10, 000
1
The probability that a randomly chosen resident lives in a mansion is  . Only 1 in 40,000 residents
30, 000
are millionaires who live in mansions. What is the probability of a randomly chosen individual being a
millionaire given that they live in a mansion?

Example 13
If it is raining in the morning, there is a 90% chance that I will bring my umbrella. If it is not raining in the
1
morning, there is only a  chance of me taking my umbrella. On any given morning the probability of rain
5
is 0.1. If you see me with an umbrella, what is the probability that it was raining that morning?
Yr10 Extended
Unit 4
Probability

G - Further Venn diagrams

Venn diagrams are useful for representing information about events which overlap one another.
An established practice is to label the intersection of all the regions first, assigning a variable to it if
necessary and then work outwards. It is not a good idea to label the total for all the regions joined together.

Example 14
In a class of 32, 19 have a bicycle, 21 have a mobile phone and 16 have a laptop computer; 11 have both a
bike and a phone, 12 have both a phone and a laptop, and 6 have both a bike and a laptop. Two have none of
these objects. How many people have a bike, a phone and a laptop?

Venn diagrams are particularly useful when thinking about conditional probability. The given information
can be used to exclude parts of the Venn diagram that are not relevant.

Example 15
Ada has 18 toys: 12 are made of plastic and 13 are red; 2 are neither red nor plastic.

Ada chooses a toy at random.

(a) Find the probability that it is a red plastic toy.

(b) If it is a red toy, find the probability that it is plastic.

Whilst in the previous two examples Venn diagrams were used to represent frequencies, they can also be
used to represent probabilities.

Example 16
Events A and B are such that  Pr(A) = 0.6 ,  Pr(B) = 0.7 and  Pr(A ∪ B) = 0.9 . Find  Pr( B′ | A′ ) .

H - Selections with and without replacement

Questions involving selection without replacement concern conditional probability and are usually most
effectively answered using a tree diagram. In these situations both the numerator and denominator of the
probability written on the branches for the second event will have been affected by what has occurred in the
first event.

Example 17
A bag contains 7 green and 5 yellow balls. Two balls are selected at random, one at a time. Find the
probability that the two balls are of different colours if the selection is made

(a) with replacement (b) without replacement