in today's video we're going to be going

over a game that a lot of you have been

requesting and that's the mindes game on

ret.com we'll be going over the basics

of the game as well as the math to

calculate the expected returns while

playing first of all let's give a quick

overview of how the game is played the

player starts off with 25 spaces on the

board and gets to choose the number of

bombs that are hidden under these spaces

you can have a single bomb on the board

or you can have up to 24 bombs leaving

only a single empty space at this point

you also decide on the amount that you'd

like to bet on the game the player then

has a chance to uncover these spaces one

at a time if they successfully Dodge a

bomb a multiplier appears on the space

and the player is allowed to cash out

for that amount this multiplier changes

based on the number of bombs that are on

the board and the amount of spaces that

you uncover for example if there's a

single bomb on the board and you dodge

it after five turns you can cash out for

1.21 times your bet however if there are

three bombs hidden on the board and you

successfully uncover five tiles you can

now cash out for 1.96 times your

to dodge a large L amount of bombs if

the player does uncover a space with the

bomb the game is immediately over and

they lose their entire bet because the

payout is different depending on the

number of hidden bombs and the number of

tiles uncovered we need the formula that

rubet uses to calculate the multiplier

after searching on their website I

couldn't find this formula anywhere in

the code that they provide so I reached

out to rubet explaining that I was

making a video about mines and I asked

for this calculation so that I can

inform my viewers about the expected

value of the game they responded with

the following message stating

unfortunately that is not information

that we could provide in my opinion it's

ridiculous that the players don't get to

know what their payout will be before

taking the risk of uncovering another

tile I responded with another email

giving my opinion and asking why they

don't want their users to be better

informed while making decisions on their

site which I think we all know the

answer to it's been over 2 months and

means that we're going to have to figure

out how they calculate the multiplier on

our own the first thing that I did was

collect some data I tested out different

scenarios and recorded the number of

bombs on the board the number of spaces

that were cleared and the payout

multiplier The Next Step was to find the

probability of uncovering a given number

of spaces with a certain amount of bombs

on the board we'll look at a specific

example to show how we'd calculate this

let's say we want to find the

probability of clearing four spaces when

there's two bombs on the board since

there's 25 spaces total and the two

bombs are randomly placed the chance

that we uncover a safe tile on our first

pick is 23 out of 25 assuming that we

successfully missed the bomb on the

first pick there are not two bombs and

22 safe tiles out of 24 spaces so our

probability of dodging a bomb on the

second pick is now 22 out of 24 we can

find similar probabilities for each of

the next two tiles that we need to

uncover and after multiplying these

fractions together we get the overall

probability of dodging a bomb after

probability turns out to be 70% and this

calculation can also be simplified to

this formula here using factorials then

I actually played the scenario on mines

and I found found out that the

multiplier for clearing four spaces with

two bombs on the board turns out to be

1.39 and now that we have the multiplier

we can calculate the expected value of

this specific bet let's say that we bet

$1 on this game we found that we would

expect to win this bet 70% of the time

and each time we win we would profit 39

the other 30% of the time we would lose

our $1 this comes out to an expected

value of -2.7 cents per play or -

2.7% so this is great when we know the

multiplier of a certain situation but

finding this multiplier for every

possible combination of bombs on the

board and spaces cleared is nearly

impossible for example the probability

of successfully clearing 12 spaces when

there's 13 bombs on the board is

0.19% or just about 1 in 5.2 million so

we can't just find the multiplier for

every possible scenario by playing

ourselves we still need to figure out

the payout for each game situation now I

did manually collect the multipliers for

7 6 out of the 300 possible game

situations and I calculated the expected

value for each one here's what the

distribution of these expected values

looks like first of all we can see that

all these bets have a negative expected

value but some have expected values that

are worse than others they range from NE

3.4% to - 2.7% and seem to be centered

at just around

-3% now if a bet is fair and has an

expected value of zero the multiplier

should be one over the probability of

winning for example the multiplier for a

bet that you have a 50% chance of

winning should be two if it's an even

bet because I saw that this distribution

of expected values was centered at

around -3% I calculated what the

multipliers should be if they were even

bets and then I subtracted 3% which is

the same thing as multiplying by 97 then

I rounded each of these multipliers to

two decimal places since that's how

precise the multipliers are in the

mindes game and after comparing the

multipliers from this calculation to the

could see that they exactly so we can be

pretty confident that this is the

formula that rubet is using and now

we're able to use this formula to

calculate the expected multipliers for

all of the 300 possible game situations

after doing this we can see that the bet

that has the highest win percentage but

lowest multiplier is when you uncover

one space when there's a single bomb on

the board this bet has a success rate of

96% a multiplier of 1.01 and an expected

value of

3.04% there are two bets that are tied

for the lowest win percentage but the

highest multiplier this is when you have

13 bombs on the board and need to

uncover 12 spaces or when there's 12

bombs on the board and you need to

uncover 13 spaces as we saw earlier both

of these situations have a success rate

of

0.19% they have expected multipliers of

5,442 19.95 and expected values of

-3% however the minimum bet on mines is

1 cent and the maximum win amount on one

game is capped at $20,000 so you

wouldn't even be able to cash out the

winning this bet with even 1 cent now

let's look at the bets with the lowest

and highest expected values there are

two bets that are tied for having the

best expected value these are the

situations when you have two bombs on

the board and you have to remove four

spaces and also when you have four bombs

on the board and have to remove two

spaces these scenarios both have success

rates of 70% multipliers of 1.39 and

expected values of -

2.7% there are four bets that are tied

for having the worst expected value

these are the situations when you have

four bombs on the board and have to

remove one space when you have one bomb

on the board and need to remove four

spaces two bombs on the board and need

to remove one space and one bomb on the

board when you need to remove two spaces

all four of these bets have expected

values of -

3.4% I know it wouldn't be fun to use

the formula every time you want to know

the multiplier or the expected value of

a bet so I try to make things a bit

easier recently I've been wanting to

learn how to create cre a web app and I

great opportunity to do that I created a

website where you can put in the number

of bombs on the board and the number of

spaces cleared to calculate the

predicted multiplier and expected value

of the bet the calculator will also tell

you the probability of successfully

winning the bet for example let's say

there's 10 bombs on the board and we

want to clear three spaces after we

enter these values and press calculate

we're told that the predicted multiplier

is 4.9 we have a 19.78% chance of

winning and we expect to lose 3. 07 for

every $1 that we bet I'll leave a link

in the video description if you'd like

to check the site out just keep in mind

that rubet can change their multiplier

calculation at any point so it's

possible that these estimations of the

multiplier and expected values aren't

completely accurate thanks for watching

the video and be sure to leave a comment

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thanks again for watching and I'll see