UN Environment Program

Global Environment Outlook – 6

Key Findings and Policy Messages

Overall picture
The GEO-6 Assessment for the pan-European region argues for more urgent action, both through
existing policies and the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (2030
Agenda), to address the challenges that the region is facing.

Regional and global multilateral environmental agreements have improved regional environmental
conditions, access to information and public participation. Further improvements are feasible through
better implementation and improved access to justice.

The region’s resource footprint is unsustainable, owing to its overuse of natural resources and its trading
patterns with other regions. Ecological, societal and economic resilience will be negatively affected in
coming decades by global megatrends that are largely outside the region’s direct control and influence.

Environmental challenges are now more systemic, multifaceted, complex, uncertain and intertwined
with socioeconomic factors. Globally, limits have been crossed for four out of nine planetary boundaries
due to human induced changes: climate change, biosphere integrity, land system change, and
biogeochemical flows (nitrogen and phosphorus). Poor air quality, climate change, unhealthy lifestyles
and the disconnection between society and natural environments increasingly affect human health in the
region and give rise to new risks.

Resilient ecosystems, efficient resource use, clean air, sufficient clean water, sustainable management of
chemicals and waste and sustainable cities are essential for a healthy planet and healthy people.
However, neither environmental policies alone nor economic and technology-driven efficiency gains will
be sufficient to achieve sustainability. More ambition is needed. The 2030 Agenda and its Sustainable
Development Goals recognize this reality.

Living within planetary boundaries will require fundamental transitions in energy, food, mobility and
urban systems and entail profound changes in predominant institutions, practices, technologies, policies
and lifestyles. New governance coalitions involving national and subnational levels of government,
businesses and citizens are urgently needed.

The transition to a truly inclusive green economy must be built on resilient ecosystems, clean production
systems, healthy consumption choices, reduced negative distributional effects of environmental policies
and improved overall environmental justice for all.
 Positive long-term outlooks call for an urgent shift from incremental to transformational change in order
to: decarbonize energy and transport systems and reduce other harmful emissions; restore ecosystems;
decouple resource use, including material footprints, from overall economic performance; “green” public
and private sector procurement; strengthen environmental responsibility in business; and incentivize
lifestyle changes.

Key findings
Climate change is one of the largest threats to human and ecosystem health and to achieving
sustainable development. It is also an accelerator for most other environmental risks. Growing impacts
include melting ice, sea level rise, increasing flood and drought frequency, degrading ecosystems, loss of
biodiversity, soil function and food productivity, changing disease vectors and exacerbated air pollution
impacts on health. Greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union are stable or declining, but in the
South Eastern European sub region they are increasing. Largely through efficiency gains, emissions have
decreased in the majority of sectors except for transport, refrigeration and air conditioning. Further
mitigation actions should be targeted at transport, agriculture, energy and raw materials, as part of the
transition to a circular economy. To stay within range of 2ºC–1.5ºC temperature increases and already
foreseen impacts, strengthened government action at the national and subnational levels, as well as
multi-stakeholder coalitions, are needed on mitigation and adaptation, including accounting for emission
footprints. Adaptation priorities include: improved water management, notably with regard to coastal
floods; growing crops suited for increased temperatures; and building green infrastructure to enhance
resilience to extreme weather, particularly in urban areas.

Air quality is the largest health risk to the pan-European population, with disproportionate effects on
children, the elderly and the poor. Over 500,000 premature deaths in the region were attributable to
ambient air quality and 100,000 to indoor air quality in 2012. More than 95 per cent of the urban
population are exposed to pollution above the World Health Organization guidelines. Excessive
deposition of nitrogen continues to damage ecosystems. Lifestyles, consumption and transport patterns
have the most influence on air quality in the region. Many parts of the region have seen improvements
in air quality over recent decades thanks to effective regulations that reduced pollutant emissions. Many
of the sectors that impact on air quality also contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. Particulate matter
and ozone are the most important pollutants contributing to adverse outdoor air quality. The bodies
under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution and its protocols have been successful
in connecting scientific evidence with policy actions. The available evidence supports further policy
actions on integrated air quality and climate policies. Policies should also prioritize lifestyle changes and
efficiency measures, reductions in emissions at their source and emerging risks, such as ozone and newly
identified health effects. Research efforts are required to bridge the considerable knowledge gap on
indoor air pollution.

Biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation continue apace, despite increased conservation and
restoration efforts. The main regional pressures are from increased land use change, particularly
agricultural intensification, urbanization and habitat fragmentation by transport infrastructure. In
Western and Central Europe, only 38.4 per cent of the original species abundance remains, while 77 per
cent remains in the Russian Federation. Full implementation of the European Union Natura 2000
network, in conjunction with the Emerald Network and the Pan-European Ecological Network, is needed.
Together with increased synergies with other existing environmental policy instruments, this would
alleviate pressures by providing protection for a broad range of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems,
habitats, species and landscapes of pan-European importance. Integrating biodiversity and ecosystem
considerations into all aspects of spatial planning would further enhance protection efforts, as would
new regulations for land and soil protection. Ecosystem-based management approaches offer a cost-
effective means to alleviate the multiple pressures on biodiversity, especially from food and forestry
production, consumption and tourism.

Chemical pollution impacts on human health and ecosystems across the region, with hazardous
chemicals of particular concern owing to their toxicity, shortcomings in their management and a lack of
transboundary controls. Other priority concerns include endocrine disruptors in consumer products,
hazardous substances in electronic and electrical products, environmentally persistent pharmaceuticals
and nanomaterials. Mercury pollution in the region is still significant, and new emerging issues such as
some toxic chemicals in consumer products pose challenges yet to be tackled. Heavy metals and
persistent organic pollutant concentrations in air, sediment and soil have on average been reduced
across the region, though hotspots remain. Parts of Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia have
legacy stockpiles of obsolete pesticides, as well as a continued reliance on heavy and highly resource-
intensive industries and chemical-intensive agriculture. Full and coherent implementation of the three
global conventions on chemicals would improve management controls and reduce risks for human
health and ecosystems. The Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals has
not yet been fully implemented. The regulations on products pertaining to chemicals must be improved.
More policy attention is needed to early signals from science.

Waste volumes continue to grow. Disposal of waste in landfills is the major environmental challenge in
several parts of the region, despite progress with recycling in many countries. Handling of waste from
electrical and electronic equipment is a growing concern, with control of transboundary movements
insufficient under the Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous
Wastes and their Disposal. Reducing food waste in the region is a key challenge. About a third of
European farmland is currently used to grow food that is thrown away. Food waste mainly occurs at the
distribution and consumption stages in Western and Central Europe, whereas production processes
generate most losses in other parts of the region. Plastics waste management is a major challenge given
limited recycling options, lack of sustainable substitutes and growing concerns about marine litter. The
waste hierarchy is widely accepted as a guiding framework to increase economic value from resource use
and to reduce waste. Closing resource-use loops through the promotion of circular economy principles
offers further pathways to minimize waste and maximize resource use.

Freshwater pollution — mainly from agriculture — to surface waters and ground waters is the main
reason for poor water quality, also affecting coastal areas and regional seas. Between urban and rural
communities there are large differences in the levels of access to sanitation and safe drinking water.
There are also large differences within the region regarding the collection and treatment of wastewater.
Irrigation, over-abstraction and highly polluted return flows threaten groundwater supplies, most
notably in Central Asia. The chemical status of water is generally improving in the European Union, but
progress is slow for diffuse pollution. Micro plastics and emerging contaminants — such as brominated
flame retardants, certain veterinary and human pharmaceuticals and anti-fouling biocides — have made
their way into all the pan-European seas, via rivers. In several transboundary river basins, water
allocation challenges are increasing. The ECE Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary
Watercourses and International Lakes and the European Union Water Framework Directive are the most
important instruments, alongside bilateral and multilateral conventions on transboundary river, lake and
groundwater basins, such as the Danube. Improved coordination between energy, agriculture,
biodiversity and water policies can further improve water quality and quantity, as well as support climate
change adaptation objectives and increase ecosystem resilience.

Coastal, marine and ocean resources are overexploited for multiple reasons and with wide-ranging
impacts. The major threats are urbanization, agriculture, fisheries, transport, industrial development,
chemical products and effluents, and energy production. Efforts to reduce pollution loads are
overwhelmed by more systemic challenges, such as climate change. Biodiversity loss and habitat
degradation of marine ecosystems continues, heightening the risks of the irreversible loss of ecosystems’
resilience and services. Nutrients loads also remain high. The impacts of new pollutants, including plastic
wastes and marine litter, are growing. Climate change impacts are increasing and include acidification,
sea level rise and shifting species vectors caused by warming waters. Due to the multitude of
socioeconomic-ecological links, threats and negative impacts, there is a need for a more integrative
approach to national, supranational, interregional and global policy responses and transnational
cooperation. Ecosystem-based management approaches offer promising, cost-effective ways to deal
with the cumulative negative effects of human activities.

Land-use change is leading to the deterioration of the physical and chemical properties of soils, thereby
causing water and air pollution. Soils are also under threat from climate change, erosion, contamination,
salinization, floods and landslides, which in turn threaten food and nutrition security. Urban sprawl
causes the loss of arable land, natural habitats and biodiversity. The loss of green areas in cities has
exacerbated climate change effects and caused deterioration in the physical and mental health and
cognitive development of children. The externalization of pan-European land demands means that for
every hectare of land used in the region, four are used elsewhere to meet the final demand in the
region’s economies. Legislation in this area is considered inadequate throughout the pan-European
region. Sustainable land management policies are needed to deal with multiple threats and impacts.
Promoting practices such as organic farming, agroecology and integrated soil fertility management
would sustain crop production systems. Restoring green areas and installing green roofs and “living
walls” would mitigate climate change impacts in cities.

Governance, knowledge and outlooks

The pan-European environmental governance system that has emerged over the past three decades
shows important differences between countries, as well as gaps and unexploited opportunities for
synergies between policies and priority areas. Enhanced cooperation is essential to address the multiple
systemic, transnational and transboundary problems and the global challenges that are expected to
impact the region in coming decades. Further environmental progress can be achieved in the coming
years through improved implementation of existing policies. In the longer term, an array of global
megatrends coupled with continuing unsustainable systems of production and consumption are
expected to exacerbate environmental pressures and impacts.

Global megatrends expected to affect the longer-term environmental outlook include: diverging
population and migration trends; increasing urbanization; more global competition for resources; an
increasingly multipolar world; and climate change. Some of these trends offer opportunities for new
innovations; others increase the risks of resource scarcities and conflicts. The pan-European outlooks
suggest in particular the need to halve material resource use in Western Europe and to stabilize it
elsewhere. Other outlooks for the region point to increasing water stress in Southern Europe and Central
Asia, a significant loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services across the region, acute climate change
impacts on coastal and agriculture systems and further human health impacts from air pollution and
exposure to chemicals. Increasing policy coherence across these thematic areas could improve the
longer-term outlook overall.

Environmental degradation has also exacerbated social problems and increased social and economic
injustices and inequalities. Improvements have been achieved through legal frameworks for public
participation in decision-making. These need strengthening urgently, given the rate and scale of current
and expected further degradation in coming decades. Successful models of environmental governance
should be built upon well-designed policies, their implementation and enforcement, pay close attention
to early signals from science and society and ensure adequate oversight capacities and investments in
knowledge systems, e.g., data, indicators, policy evaluation and sharing platforms. Greater investments
are needed in environmental accounting systems to ensure external costs are addressed, and in foresight
processes to identify possible future risks, opportunities and conflicts. Greater application of the
“precautionary principle” can reduce risks in a world where thresholds and limits are being breached
and where endpoints are increasingly uncertain. Achieving progress under greater uncertainty requires
coalitions between government institutions, businesses and civil society, to agree on pathways for
tackling different societal risks. Vertical coordination between national and local policy levels will be
instrumental in accelerating the transition towards sustainable development models in urban areas.

The Sustainable Development Goals should be seen as providing a strategic opportunity for
environmental policy to contribute to transformative processes as well as a support mechanism for
strengthening adaptive capacities and resilience within societies on all levels, instead of a cost factor and
constraint on development and competitiveness. Operationalizing the Sustainable Development Goals
will require ambitious quantitative targets and indicators so that progress towards sustainability can be
tracked properly to ensure convergence on a shared regional vision and ambition within planetary
boundaries. There is no doubt that achieving a healthy planet and healthy people requires urgent
transformation of the current systems of production and consumption that most contribute to
environmental degradation and inequalities in human health and well-being.