Q0012
Q0012
U : at least one solves, V : S1 solves | S2 , S3 both fail, W : S2 solves and S3 fails, T : S3 solves.
Given P (U ) = 21 , P (V ) = 1
10
, P (W ) = 1
12
, find P (T ).
p1 (1−p2 )(1−p3 ) 1
Step 1: P (V ) = P (S1 | S2c S3c ) = (1−p2 )(1−p3 )
= p1 . Hence p1 = P (S1 ) = 10
.
(*C0049*)
1
Step 2: P (W ) = P (S2 ∧ S3c ) = p2 (1 − p3 ) = 12
. (*C0050*)
1 1/2
Substitute p1 = 10
to get (1 − p2 )(1 − p3 ) = 9/10
= 59 . (*C0051*)
(*C0052*)
13
Answer: 36
.
1
C0049: Conditional probability extraction
Extract p1 = P (S1 | S2c , S3c ) = P (V ).