Class: M.

com Semester 1
Subject: Statistics
Paper: MC1.4
Topic: Probability
By: Dr. Md. Moazzam Nazri
HOD
&
Assistant Professor
Faculty of Commerce, Karim City College, Jamshedpur
Introduction
The first foundation of the Theory of Probability was laid in the middle of the seventeenth
century. It originated in problems dealing with games of chance played by tossing coins,
drawing cards, throwing dice, etc. The notion of probability is now used in almost all
disciplines -Statistics, Economics, Business, Industry, Engineering, etc. The Probability
Theory is the study of events that are neither certain nor impossible.

In 1663, the first book on the subject entitled “Book on Games of Chance” written by an
Italian mathematician Jerome Cardan was published. However, it was the French
mathematicians Blaise Pascal (1632-62) and Pierre de Fermat (1601-65) who laid a solid
foundation of the mathematical theory of probability. The contribution of the Swiss
mathematician James Bernoulli (1654-1705) to the theory of probability is also very notable.
Other important names which have made significant contributions to the subject, and which
need mention are De-Moivre (1667-1754). Thomas Bayes (1702-61). Pierre Simon de
Laplace (1749-1827) and R .A. Fisher

The contribution made by Russian mathematicians to the modern theory of probability is very
significant. Chebvchev, Markov, Kolmogorov have done remarkable work in the field. The
modern theory of probability owes its origin to Russian mathematicians.

Important Terms

Following are the important terms which will be used in defining Probability.
1. Events: The results (or outcomes) of experiments or observations are called events.
Events may be either elementary (i.e. Simple) or composite (0r compound). Elementary
events cannot be decomposed further, while composite events can be decomposed into
elementary events. For example, ‘Falling Head on tossing a coin’ is an elementary event
while ‘throwing 8 points by a single cast with two dice is a composite event. Here 8 points
may be obtained by throwing (2,6) or (3,5) or (4,4) or (5,3) or (6,2) each of which is an
elementary event.

2. Equally Likely Events: Two or more events are said to be equally likely if the chance of
their happening is equal i.e., there is no preference of any one event over the other. Thus, in
the throw of a dice, the coming up of 1,2,3,4,5 or 6 is equally likely. In the throw of a coin,
the coming up of the head or tail is equally likely.

3. Mutually Exclusive Events: Two or more cases are said to be mutually exclusive if the
happening of any one of them excludes the happening of all others in a single experiment.
Thus, in the throw of a single dice events 5 and 6 are mutually exclusive. If event 5 happens
no other event is possible in the same experiment. Here one and only one of the events can
take place excluding all others.

4. Exhaustive (Sample space): Events are said to be exhaustive when they include all
possible cases. The events of falling Head and Tail in the case of tossing a coin are
exhaustive. In casting a die, there are 6 exhaustive events (or cases), since any one of all the
six numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 may appear on top.

5. At Random: At random means without giving any preference or priority to any (i.e.,
without bias for any) case so that everyone may get an equally likely possibility of
occurrence.

6. Outcome (favorable events): The result of a random is called an outcome. The outcome
of tossing a coin will be Head or Tail.

7. Independent and Dependent Events: An event is said to be independent if it is not

However, if we are successively drawing cards from a pack (without replacement) the events
would be dependent. The chance of getting a king on the first draw is 4/52 (as there are 4
kings in a pack). If this card is not replaced before the second draw, the chance of getting a
king again is 3/51 as there are only 51 cards left and they contain only 3 kings.

8. Permutations and Combinations: The word permutation refers to arrangements and the
word combinations refers to groups. These terms are used in the calculation of probability.

Meaning of Probability

In everyday life, we come across statements like, He is probably wrong, “The chances of his
winning the game are fifty-fifty.” “It is very likely that it will rain tonight”. These are not
mathematically precise statements in the sense that we cannot form any definite idea about
the occurrence or non-occurrence of the event. However, they give an idea of the varying
degrees of probability of the occurrence of the events. But they give an idea of a saying
degree of probability of occurrence or non -non-occurrence of the events. Again ‘Death of an
animal’ or Falling of a fruit from a tree’ is an Absolute Certainty and Swimming across the
Indian Ocean is an Absolute Impossibility. The vagueness of statements started above has
been removed by introducing a device for measuring the degree of Probability of which the
highest degree is the Absolute Certainly and the lowest the Absolute Impossibility. Now,
whatever be chance of happening of the event, it cannot be worse than Absolute Impossibility
or brighter than Absolute Certainty. Mathematically, in the case of Absolute Impossibility,
p=0, p stands for probability, and for Absolute Certainty, p=1. Any Chance or Probability can
then be represented by a fraction lying between 0 and 1. Hence, mathematically the
Probability or Chance of happening of an event lies between 0 and 1 and is, therefore, a
positive proper fraction.

Definition of Probability
We shall now give three definitions of Probability:

(i) Classical or Mathematical (or a Priori) definition.

Classical or Mathematical definition of Probability

Definition:
If there are n mutually exclusive, exhaustive, and equally likely cases and m of them are
favorable to a certain event A, then the probability (or chance) of the occurrence of A is
defined as the ratio m/n.

Symbolically, P (A) = m / n = No. of favourable events / Total No. of all equally likely
events

Where P(A) denotes the probability of occurrence of the event A.