What Makes Minerals and

Metals “Critical”?
A practical guide for governments on building
resilient supply chains

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What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?

A practical guide for governments on building resilient supply chains
May 2024
Written by Isabelle Ramdoo, Grégoire Bellois, Murtiani Hendriwardani
What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
A practical guide for governments on building resilient supply chains

Table of Contents
1.0 Introduction and Objectives..................................................................................................................1
1.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................................................................................1
1.2 Objectives ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................2

2.0 Why and How Mineral “Criticality” Should Be Assessed ...................................................... 3

2.1 Criticality Assessment Is Relevant for All Stakeholders......................................................................................3
2.2 Key Steps to Define the Mineral Scope for Critical Minerals Policy Design................................... 4

3.0 Step 1: Understanding criticality....................................................................................................... 5

3.1 Criticality Assessments........................................................................................................................................................................5
3.2 Key Characteristics That Define Criticality.................................................................................................................... 6

4.0 Step 2: Taking stock...............................................................................................................................10

4.1 Key Questions to Guide the Criticality Assessment..........................................................................................10
4.2 Summary of Outcome Expected From Step 2........................................................................................................... 24

5.0 Step 3: Strategic considerations.....................................................................................................25

5.1 National Priorities.................................................................................................................................................................................... 25
5.2 Regional Initiatives................................................................................................................................................................................ 26
5.3 Global Responsibilities........................................................................................................................................................................ 27

6.0 Step 4: Review............................................................................................................................................29

7.0 Next Steps.................................................................................................................................................... 31
8.0 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................33
References .........................................................................................................................................................34
Appendix A. List of Critical Minerals in Selected Countries.....................................................39
Appendix B. Mapping Selected Minerals and Metals Against Energy Transition
and Digital Technologies......................................................................................................................45
Appendix C. Data Checklist and Key Indicators of Risks Regarding Geological
Consideration............................................................................................................................................ 47
Appendix D. Data Checklist and Key Indicators of Risks Regarding Production,
Economic, and Market Considerations.........................................................................................49
Appendix E. Data Checklist and Key Indicators of Risks Regarding Social and
Environment Considerations..............................................................................................................58
Appendix F. Data Checklist and Key Indicators of Risks Regarding Geopolitical
Considerations.........................................................................................................................................60
Appendix G. Data Checklist and Key Indicators of Risks Regarding Governance,
Legal, and Regulatory Issues..............................................................................................................62
Appendix H. Where Critical and Conflict Minerals Overlap.......................................................65

iii
1.0 Introduction and Objectives
1.1 Introduction
Minerals and metals are the backbone of our modern society. These crucial elements
are the building blocks that drive economic, social, and technological advancement.
They serve as vital feedstocks for our food systems and are indispensable inputs for our
industrial development.

Global trends and calls to action, such as the imperatives to address climate change, notably
by moving away from a fossil-fuels-based economic model and the increasing digitalization
of our society, will require a rapid adoption of a suite of technologies that are highly mineral
intensive. As recent analysis suggests (see International Energy Agency [IEA], 2023b; Hund
et al., 2019), these systemic changes in our industrial and societal models have led to an
exponential rise in demand for minerals and metals. Increased demand from energy and
digital transitions will be compounded by other recurrent development needs, such as
basic access to energy from developing countries, rapid urbanization resulting from the
demographic boom, and infrastructure needs, amongst others.1 Forecasts—although probably
largely underestimated—predict that the upward trend in demand is likely to continue at an
accelerated pace.

However, these estimates indicate that the increasing demand for minerals and metals is
unlikely to be met by a corresponding pace in the increase in mineral supply, at least in the
short to medium term (IEA, 2023b).

It is, therefore, expected that the production of—and access to—minerals and metals
that are essential to the manufacturing of digital, decarbonization, and energy transition
technologies will be at the top of the political and economic agenda of many governments
and influence strategic decisions and alliances at various levels, namely at bilateral, regional,
and global levels. These will fundamentally reshape the markets for minerals and metals that
are essential for the energy and digital transitions, indistinctly impacting all supply chain
segments and actors, albeit in different ways.

1 The British Geological Survey (2024) offers a comprehensive overview of where critical minerals are
found in the typical household, as well as the everyday lives of families.

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What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
A practical guide for governments on building resilient supply chains

1.2 Objectives
This practical guide provides a series of questions for governments to consider when
designing strategic policies and roadmaps regarding the minerals and metals they produce
and/or need for resilient industrial supply chains.

There is no consensus on the terminology to designate minerals and metals that are essential
feedstock in digital and energy transition technologies, and for which there are supply
chain challenges. The aim of this practical guide is to support governments in defining what
should be considered as “strategic” or “critical” based on a series of objective criteria, such
as their mineral endowments, their national development objectives and priorities, their
decarbonization and industrialization pathways, and their importance (and role) in global
supply chains.

This practical guide provides a (non-exhaustive) set of questions and indicators that
governments may use when conducting a thorough assessment of the risks associated
with their minerals and metals. While the assessment is mainly aimed at identifying risks,
the indicators provided in this practical guide can help governments identify strategic
opportunities that can be leveraged to maximize the benefits from the rising demand for
some minerals and metals.

2
2.0 Why and How Mineral “Criticality”
Should Be Assessed
In the current literature, “criticality” assessments are mainly driven by downstream supply
chain actors.2 They are aimed at identifying and evaluating risks associated with the
supply of minerals that are needed by countries that have a deficit in production and for
specific industries or applications (Schrijvers et al., 2020; U.S. Department of Energy, 2023a).
Motivations and perspectives may vary if the stakeholder is a company, a specific industry
(such as renewable energy and digital technologies), a country, or a region (Schrijvers
et al., 2020).3

2.1 Criticality Assessment Is Relevant for All Stakeholders

Minerals and metals are not equally distributed in the Earth’s crust, which means that some
minerals are highly concentrated in a handful of countries. This physical characteristic of
mining is at the source of several potential risks and challenges that may, in turn, impact
mineral value chains and their related supply chains. Risks differ across producing and
destination countries and across different industries or sectors that require minerals and
metals as inputs in their production (Schrijvers et al., 2020).

The rising demand related to the energy and digital transitions, the growing complexity of
global supply chains, and the geopolitical tensions these dynamics have generated have
exacerbated the risks. To manage the growing risks associated with access to, and production
of, minerals, countries and industries who are most vulnerable to supply disruptions have
undertaken risk assessments (also called “criticality assessments”) to better identify sources
of vulnerabilities and understand pinch points along mining production value chains, as well
as related weaknesses in global supply chains (See European Commission, 2017; Nassar &
Fortier, 2021; National Research Council, 2007).

2 For detailed literature reviews on critical minerals see Achzet & Helbig, 2013; Hayes & McCullogh, 2018;
Helbig et al., 2006; McCullough & Nassar, 2017; McNutty & Joewitt, 2021; Schrijvers et al., 2020; Takuma
et al., 2020; Viebahn et al., 2015.
3 For an extensive literature review on the notion of criticality and different definitions adopted by
various countries, see Hilson, forthcoming.

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What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
A practical guide for governments on building resilient supply chains

At the same time, countries with a dominant position as producers of minerals and metals
in high demand are increasingly taking a strong stance to position themselves as strategic
partners (see Australian Government, 2023; Natural Resources Canada, 2022). Cognizant of
their bargaining powers and of their geopolitical strengths, many have developed their own
critical or strategic minerals policies (Ramdoo, forthcoming). Their objectives differ from those
who are vulnerable to supply shocks and therefore want to strengthen their positions and
protect their interests. Overall, arguments for a greater control over the supply of minerals
vary from developing resilient domestic industrial capacities and supply chains to political
positioning to become suppliers of choice. In some cases, strong nationalistic positions are a
response to retaliate over measures taken by competing countries.

2.2 Key Steps to Define the Mineral Scope for Critical

Minerals Policy Design
The following section provides a four-step approach, with a set of questions and key
indicators aimed at providing policy-makers with a toolbox to conduct a criticality
assessment and the identification of strategic assets.

FIGURE 1. A four-step approach to identify indicators to assess criticality and define

strategic interests

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4

Understanding Taking stock and Making strategic

Review process
criticality risk mapping decision

Source: Authors.

A criticality assessment is a thorough assessment of risk to identify bottlenecks and

pinch points in mineral value chains.
The process of identifying “strategic assets” is aimed at gauging the importance of some
minerals in meeting national development objectives and in leveraging the country’s
unique position in global supply chains.

To fully assess the criticality or the strategic importance of their minerals and metals,
governments are advised to undertake a thorough assessment of risks and opportunities of
the entire mineral supply chain.

The approach proposed in this section is a dynamic one. When there are changes in
circumstances, whether at domestic, regional, or global levels, policy-makers need to take a
step back and reassess their priorities accordingly. It is also advisable for policy-makers to
review the criticality assessment regularly (on average every 3 years).

4
3.0 Step 1: Understanding criticality
Understanding Taking stock and Making strategic
Review process
criticality risk mapping decision

3.1 Criticality Assessments

The first and perhaps most important step before making any policy choices is to have a
holistic understanding of criticality from a technical, economic, and geopolitical perspective.
This is crucial to properly identifying which minerals and metals are involved and, therefore,
what types of measures would be needed to tackle the challenges. This step is key for
producing and destination countries alike.

While the rationale for conducting a criticality assessment is well understood, there is,
however, no universally agreed definition of what is “critical” or “strategic” or what minerals
and metals should be considered as such. Methodologies and formulas to identify critical
minerals vary across countries. Nonetheless, common challenges emerge across various
methodologies, and these include economic importance, demand and supply risks related to
the share of the mineral in a technology, and dominant suppliers.4

Box 1. Terminologies | Critical or strategic: Are these terms synonymous?

In the prevailing discourse, the term "critical minerals" has been commonly and widely
used by advanced economies with significant industrial capabilities to manufacture
energy and digital technological solutions, but with important deficits in domestic mineral
production. For these countries, the terms "critical minerals" or “critical raw materials” refer
to those elements that are needed for their key strategic industries but for which there
are significant risks of supply disruption. Given their (over)reliance on external markets,
their policies are aimed at the security of supply chains and at de-risking and diversifying
sources of supply.

4 See Hilson (forthcoming) for a review of methodologies used by various countries.

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What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
A practical guide for governments on building resilient supply chains

On the other hand, countries that produce or extract these minerals often prefer to refer
to them as "strategic minerals" because these minerals are of crucial importance to their
domestic economies and can potentially confer them a position of strength as suppliers of
choice to destination countries. In some countries (in the United States, for example), the
term “strategic” refers to minerals essential for the defence industry (National Research
Council, 2007). In this case, both terminologies are used, and strategic minerals are a
subset of critical minerals.
While there are significant overlaps in the scope of critical and strategic minerals,
there are major differences in approach, which reflect national priorities, industrial
competitiveness, and choice of global partners.
Other terms used include energy transition minerals, battery minerals, or green minerals.
These refer to priorities related to specific objectives (such as “green” or energy transition)
or target specific industries (such as batteries). Supply chain challenges are recognized
as important policy drivers.
Acknowledging that terminologies differ across countries, this guiding document uses the
term “critical minerals” due to its focus on the assessment of risks.

The outcomes of criticality assessment exercises generally lead to the design of critical
minerals strategies and policies, often associated with a mineral scope, which are then used
as levers for policy-makers and industrial players to make informed decisions regarding
current and future investment plans, strategies to negotiate trade and global partnership
agreements, and engagements in global policy agenda, among other things. See Appendix A
for a comparative list of critical minerals as identified by Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the
European Commission, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

3.2 Key Characteristics That Define Criticality

3.2.1 Demand and Supply Risks
Assessing risks associated with the demand of critical minerals involves examining factors
such as industrial demand related to the energy and digital transitions, potential changes
in technologies that may affect future demand, and broader mineral needs related to basic
access to energy, infrastructure, construction and urbanization, and wider socio-economic
development needs. Moreover, evaluating risks associated with supply, such as social and
environmental risks, geopolitical tensions, and resource nationalism is crucial in defining
criticality (Coulomb et al., 2015).

3.2.2 Production Volume

Minerals and metals may be considered critical because they are only produced in low
volumes, while demand is high. Many significant mining projects face declining ore grades or
depleting reserves.

6
What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
A practical guide for governments on building resilient supply chains

Moreover, it is estimated that more than 60% of minerals and metals considered critical by
the United States, European Union, Canada, and Australia5 are not mined for themselves. They
are minor metals, mainly extracted as co- or by-products of other major minerals and metals
(Bellois & Ramdoo, 2023) and therefore are available in smaller volumes. They are considered
to have higher levels of risk because their supply is generally inelastic in the short term
because their production is highly dependent on the technical feasibility and/or economic
sustainability of the host metal extraction processes.6

3.2.3 Uses and Applications

It is important to note, however, that the criticality of a mineral or a metal is not only a
function of its physical availability—it depends on how demand will evolve. Changing
demand is shaped by specific technologies (see Appendix B for a mapping of digital and
energy transition technologies against critical minerals) and, importantly, by the pace of
technological development. The latter may require different minerals, which may, in turn,
impact the degree of criticality of minerals needed for the technologies in question.

3.2.4 Time Factors

Criticality is not static; it has a time dimension. Indicators of criticality evolve over time and
are assessed differently in the short term and long term (Heffron, 2020). What is critical today
might not be critical in a few years because new sources of production may emerge, including
at the national level, substitution can be found, or technology may change, requiring different
volumes of the mineral in question or different sets of minerals altogether. Time, therefore,
is expected to affect the risk profile associated with mineral supply, reducing risk for some
minerals and increasing risks for others.

Box 2. Criticality: Time matters

Technological evolution can be illustrated by the historic change of mobility vehicles at

the beginning of the 20th century. In 1900, there were practically no motor vehicles. But
the rapid deployment of the first cars meant that within a span of 20 years, horse-driven
carriages were almost wiped out from large cities in the United States. This historic
change drastically affected entire industries and their supply chains and—subsequently—
the demand for minerals and metals (Amatucci, 2015).
Mineral intensity in various technologies can also evolve spectacularly. For instance, the
move toward e-mobility significantly increases the demand for copper: with current
technologies, a conventional internal combustion engine car requires, on average, 25 kg of
copper, whereas for an equivalent size of vehicle, average copper requirements are 50 kg
for a hybrid car and 75 kg for an electric vehicle (IEA, 2021).

5 For example, about 75% of indium and 65% of germanium are by-products of lead-zinc-silver; almost
100% of gallium is associated with aluminum; and 50% of cobalt and palladium is co-produced with
nickel.
6 For a more comprehensive overview of how metals are produced and associated together, see Bellois &
Ramdoo, 2023.

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What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
A practical guide for governments on building resilient supply chains

3.2.5 Stakeholders’ Position in the Supply Chain

The understanding of the notion of criticality can vary depending on where stakeholders are
positioned in the mineral supply chain at a point in time.

Midstream and downstream stakeholders and destination countries generally consider

criticality from the security of supply and access to markets for minerals they do not produce
or produce only in limited quantity. Criticality assessments from this perspective, will consider
issues such as the degree of import dependency, economic importance for industrial use,
risks of supply shortages, and geopolitical challenges, amongst others. To overcome this,
many countries, including France (Messad, 2023), Saudi Arabia (El Yaakoubi, 2024), Laos PDR
(Lapuekou, 2023), and the Philippines (“Philippines Seeks,” 2023) are increasingly ramping up
exploration efforts to find mineral deposits domestically.

For upstream stakeholders, such as mineral-producing countries and related domestic

industries, criticality assessments involve a strategic consideration in addition to a risk
perspective. From a risk management perspective, mineral-producing countries and domestic
industries consider issues such as their degree of dependency on (and concentration of)
export markets, the degree of fiscal revenue reliance, the risks related to changes in demand
due to technological changes, availability of substitutes to replace the critical minerals, or
policies from import-dependent countries to diversify away from their markets.

Box 3. Criticality assessment from mineral-producing countries—debunking a

misconception

It is often (wrongly) perceived that criticality assessments are not necessary if countries
are well endowed with minerals or are net exporters thereof.
In fact, risk assessments are equally, if not more important for mineral-producing
countries for several reasons. First, economies are globally interdependent, and therefore
measures taken to mitigate risks by destination countries will necessarily have ripple
effects on producing countries. If not well understood, analyzed, and anticipated, risk
mitigation strategies by destination countries may create new challenges and enhance
vulnerabilities for producing countries. These unanticipated challenges will have
repercussions on their mining sectors and on their future policy choices.
Moreover, many mineral-producing countries, particularly those with relatively
undiversified economies and high dependencies on a limited number of mineral exports,
are less resilient to external policy changes and shocks. They may, therefore, to be
disproportionately impacted by policies aimed at managing risks in their partner countries.
Finally, the current mineral boom represents a narrow window of opportunity for producing
countries to leverage their geopolitical strengths to become suppliers of choice. While the
demand for critical minerals is likely to continue to grow, the risks associated with supply
shortages or disruptions may eventually be managed and addressed. The focus on their
“critical” nature will wane, therefore lowering the bargaining power of producing countries.
In that regard, criticality assessment can be a useful compass to provide strategic
insights into how markets are evolving.

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What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
A practical guide for governments on building resilient supply chains

Mineral-producing countries have a strategic role to play as key suppliers to countries and
industries that are further downstream. Arguably, mineral-producing countries can leverage
their mineral resources as a source of bargaining power to develop their own industrial and
value-addition capacities, notably through investments and partnerships.

A global consultation conducted in 2023 by the IGF (see IGF, forthcoming) revealed that a
significant number of developing countries already have or are in the process of adopting a
critical mineral strategy (60%) and/or a critical mineral list (80%). The primary drivers behind
formulating and executing critical mineral strategies were (a) increased domestic value
addition (27%), (b) increased fiscal revenues (26%), and (c) strategic positioning in global
supply chains (21%). The survey underscored the perception among producing countries that
critical minerals are regarded as a strategic concern.

Despite the increasing move to adopt critical mineral policies and lists, very few producing
countries, however, have conducted in-depth criticality assessments to gauge the levels of
risks to be managed and to identify opportunities that can be leveraged from a supplier’s
perspective. The few exceptions include Australia and Canada, which are both major
producers and industrial actors and have positioned themselves as partners of choice with
key midstream and downstream stakeholders.

9
4.0 Step 2: Taking stock
Understanding Taking stock and Making strategic
Review process
criticality risk mapping decision

For policy-makers in mineral-producing countries, having a strategic vision for their mining
industry is important, irrespective of whether they are planning to identify or classify certain
minerals as strategic or critical. In that context, it is crucial to conduct criticality assessments
to inform the country’s long-term strategic objectives.

The exercise will allow countries to identify opportunities to leverage the benefits from
minerals in high demand, for various reasons. It will provide countries with evidence to make
informed decisions to adjust their mining policies and strategies, and design measures to
address bottlenecks that may prevent the implementation of domestic industrial policies and
global commitments with key buyers and trading partners.

As a foundation for strategic decision making, the second step, therefore, is to take stock
of various factors that impact the demand and supply of minerals. This includes a deep
understanding of the availability and accessibility of mineral resources, of their industrial uses
(domestic and global), of trends in global markets, and of geopolitical dynamics surrounding
these minerals. The knowledge generated should allow countries to identify associated risks.
The main outcome of the stocktaking and risk mapping exercise is a comprehensive list of
minerals and metals, which will then inform the strategic decision (Step 3) to select a mineral
narrow scope on which the country might want to focus more attention.

4.1 Key Questions to Guide the Criticality Assessment

To conduct the stocktaking exercise, governments need to gather as much data and
information as possible, from multiple sources, to get a deeper understanding of their mineral
resources, their use and applications and global trends driving the demand for their resources.
Information gathered should be disclosed to ensure transparency and accountability.

Based on the information gathered, governments should define a preliminary set of minerals
that they may want to further investigate and monitor more closely.

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What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
A practical guide for governments on building resilient supply chains

Box 4. The importance of conducting the assessment despite possible data gaps

This section provides a comprehensive checklist of questions. While the exercise may
seem complex and time consuming, the objective is to gather as much information as
possible on various aspects of mining activities, across the life cycle of mining projects to
be able to conduct an informed risk assessment.
We acknowledge, however, that data and information may not always be available, up
to date, or complete. Also, some countries may not have systems in place to collect and
process the information gathered or may not have historical data in a format that can
be easily used or made available. Other countries may have smaller or nascent mining
sectors and, therefore, may not have sufficient historical data to inform longer-term
policies. In that case, we encourage countries to collect the basic information they may
have and work toward improving their database, to ensure they can improve their analysis
in the future.
Despite these challenges, governments should nonetheless attempt to conduct the
stocktaking exercise to the best of their ability and improve on the assessment as data
gaps are filled.

This section is organized into five subcategories:

• Geological considerations: Identifying the sources and geographical location of

mineral production, notably by mapping the geological ore bodies and occurrences
for major and minor minerals, in terms of resources, reserves, and production at the
domestic level and assessing global supplies and potentials.
• Economic, market, and fiscal considerations: Assessing actual and forecasted
industrial needs, by mineral, by sector and by application. 7 The analysis should take
a holistic approach across the value chain and supply chain, to identify potential
bottlenecks and weaknesses at all levels. It should also consider how demand can
affect by- and co-products differently (see Bellois & Ramdoo, 2023), and whether the
current fiscal regime is fit for purpose.
• Social and environmental considerations: Assessing the impacts of current (and
future) mining activities on the social fabric and on the environment. These should
inform the subsequent question of what policies to prioritize based on the strategic
mineral list.
• Geopolitical considerations: With a focus on global trade tensions, identifying pinch
points in the global supply chains and other countries’ critical minerals assessments
and de-risking strategies.
• Governance, legal and regulatory issues: Assessing national policy frameworks and
instruments that may impact mineral production and trade, global standards (such
as responsible sourcing obligations), industry standards and requirements (such as
environmental, social, and governance [ESG] reporting requirements), that may have
an impact on demand and supply of minerals and on specific countries/ regions.

7 This should include current and estimated future domestic and global demand; potential changes
in demand due to changes in technologies, substitutions, or availability of new sources of supplies;
potential changes in domestic or global supply; key market considerations, such as price volatility, levels
of investments, government incentives, and trade restrictions.

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What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
A practical guide for governments on building resilient supply chains

Each subsection highlights the main questions that are relevant to the stocktaking and the
risk-mapping exercise. Appendices C–G, organized according the five subsections mentioned
above, provide a comprehensive checklist of information and data that are relevant to inform
the exercise. The appendices also provide a set of performance indicators that can be used to
measure risks that may impact the design and implementation of the strategic policies that
governments may consider adopting.

4.1.1 Geological Considerations

Information gathered under this section allows governments to determine the importance
of their mining potential by type of minerals and, hence, gauge the potential strength in the
upstream part of the mineral value chain. It is important to make sure the potential for co-
production and by-production is well documented, as a significant number of minerals and
metals needed for the energy transition and digital technologies are minor elements whose
production is dependent on the extraction of major metals.

Box 5. What minerals are available in my country?

This question is aimed at conducting a detailed assessment of domestic mineral

INFO production capacity. Geological consideration informs how deposits can be exploited,
which in turn allows for a better understanding of the potential future risks.

Information gathered should include detailed geological information on mineral

occurrences, estimated resources and reserves with details about their subnational
locations. Geological data should be classified by types of minerals.
Geological information should include the quality of ore bodies, associated elements
in the ore bodies (whether in commercially exploitable quantity or not), and minerals
associated with problematic elements (such as radioactive elements).
Data should be sourced from existing national geological surveys’ library, exploration,
and mining companies, as well as planned state-funded information acquisitions at the
regional level.
Governments should map out the location of resources that may overlap with biodiversity
hotspots and conservation areas, water bodies, or land of Indigenous Peoples etc.
Appendix C provides a checklist of information that is needed to get a good
understanding of the mining potential of a country and provides a set of indicators to
conduct the assessments.

Possible risk factors to consider:

• depletion time of reserves
• risk of temporary scarcity, due to technical feasibility, political issues (sanctions), or
geopolitical issues
• levels of risk in country, including political risks, risks of corruption, and risk of
conflict that may impact decisions to invest

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What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
A practical guide for governments on building resilient supply chains

4.1.2 Production, Macroeconomic, and Market Considerations

In addition to maintaining updated geological knowledge, it is necessary to keep track of
actual and historical production data by value and volume. Data on mining operations and
mining projects, disaggregated by project advancement stage,8 should also be gathered.
This will allow governments to have a deeper understanding of the country’s position
(current and future) in the upstream mineral value chain, compared to other producing
countries, and to assess the associated risks. The analysis is needed to develop strategic
plans on the use of mineral resources domestically and determine what is needed to develop
downstream capabilities.

Box 6. How much do I produce and how will my production capacity evolve?

Information gathered on domestic production will help identify a preliminary list

INFO of minerals for further investigation. Information should cover all size of mining
activities and all minerals identified in the previous section. It should consider all
minerals associated together as co-products and by-products. It should also include
minerals that can be recovered from waste and tailings storage facilities as well as
from scraps and recycling. The analysis should be done in comparison to other global
producers.

Information should include mineral production by size of mining activities and by types of
commodities (in volume and in value). Governments need to estimate the importance of
each mineral produced in comparison to total mining in-country and globally.
All potential sources of supply should be considered, including production from artisanal
mining, from small-scale and mid-sized mining activities, from reprocessing of waste
rocks or tailings, and from recycling of end-product wastes.
Measuring the importance of the mining production in the national economy and on
the global scene is key to informing national development programs and diversification
strategies. Particular attention should be given to minerals that contribute significantly to
the national income (in terms of fiscal or export revenues) and governments may want to
further investigate how strategic they may be for the country.
Appendix D provides more details on types of information that governments may want to
collect to inform their policy documents and includes a set of indicators to conduct the
assessments.

Possible risk factors to consider:

• price volatility
• regulatory bottlenecks that can impact the permitting process
• challenges in accessing investment to finance mining projects
• (non-transparent or absence of) pricing of minerals (including for minor elements)
• risks of substitutability
• technological change
• accessibility to and from mine site
• risks associated with informality or illegal mining
• stockpiling strategies being developed by import-dependent countries

8 Mining project advancement stage include exploration, feasibility, development, construction, and
production phases, as well as closure.

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Box 7. How important is the mining sector to my country?

Information gathered about the domestic mining sector will help provide a
INFO macroeconomic overview of how the mining sector contributes to the income of
the nation, either through fiscal revenues, export revenues, investments, and/or
employment.

Information should include the following:

Economic contribution of the mining sector to national income, investment, fiscal
revenues, export revenues, and employment. This will help governments assess how
dependent their country is on the mining industry and take the necessary measures to
manage associated risks and vulnerabilities.
Data on domestic and foreign investment flows into exploration and production and
across mining value chains (and associated supply chains for specific minerals) are
important for assessing the strategic interests of global mining actors. Data should
include private investment, public investments (including through state-owned entities)
and state-backed investments.
Data on public resources invested in research and development (R&D) and innovation,
which are key to supply chain development. To stimulate private sector investment in
innovation, governments need to strengthen intellectual property rights regulations and
institutional capacity, notably to protect innovation and industrial designs.
Detailed information on producing companies (as well as refining and smelting
companies), whether domestic or foreign, is necessary to assess in-country capacity to
beneficiate mineral production. Historical data on exploration budgets, the number and
types of companies involved, and the types of transactions conducted (such as mergers
and acquisitions or joint ventures, etc.) must be tracked and analyzed. Importantly, the
ownership structures of foreign mining companies should be understood because they
may have geopolitical implications.
Detailed information on trade flows and trade measures in place is essential for
evaluating the importance of specific markets, identifying key partners, and assessing the
level of dependency (import and export), which may be a source of risk and vulnerability,
both for the producing country and the importing partner country. The existence of trade
measures on specific minerals also signals some level of strategic importance and these
should be examined in detail, particularly in terms of their implications on the domestic
economy or the foreign market.
Appendix D provides more details on the types of information that governments may want
to collect to inform their policy documents and includes a set of indicators to conduct the
assessments.

Risk factors to consider:

• degree of mineral trade dependency (imports and exports)
• impact of trade barriers on country’s competitiveness
• impact of trade barriers on fiscal revenues
• impact of trade barriers on production costs
• impact of third countries’ trade barriers on domestic value chains
• investment risks related to price volatility, fiscal policies, trade barriers

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4.1.3 Industrial Development Considerations

Data gathered in this section provides the basis to assess existing and potential industrial
capabilities based on domestic mineral production when available, as well as an indication of
the country’s reliance on external sourcing when there is a gap in domestic supply.

This analysis allows governments to properly design risk mitigation and management policies
and address domestic and external risks in a timely manner. For instance, countries that
are highly dependent on mining face higher risks if there are significant changes in global
demand, in technologies requiring the minerals they export, or in any other aspect affecting
investment decisions.

Gathering a holistic picture of the mining landscape from an industrial perspective is relevant
for strategic thinking about ownership of key mining assets. Even if countries do not yet have
significant industrial production capabilities, based on their endowments, it is important
nonetheless to assess potential future use against mineral production and accessibility.

Box 8. Which minerals are essential to my country’s strategic objectives?

Information gathered in this section is crucial for assessing current industrial

INFO capacities and the extent and degree of self-sufficiency (or of reliance on external
sources), which is a necessary preliminary analysis when defining criticality.
Information should include industrial policies and roadmaps, with a focus on how the
mineral sector will contribute to industrial activities. These plans should include priority
sectors that have been identified that will require domestic mining production feedstocks
and the level of domestic demand (current and forecasted) anticipated for an agreed
period.
Information should also include an assessment of the current domestic demand
for minerals and metals needed to fulfill the needs of the current industrial sector.
Consideration should be given to longer-term development plans, including longer-term
industrial trajectories.
Data analysis should include existing downstream capabilities as well as future plans to
scale up value-added industries for locally mined products.
Historical information about plans that may not have succeeded must be collected, and
reasons for failures need to be examined. Any plans to build new facilities should be
identified.
Appendix D provides more details on the types of information that governments may want
to collect to inform their policy documents and includes a set of indicators to conduct the
assessments.

Risks factor to consider:

• technological changes that may impact on mineral intensity or mineral needs
• geopolitical risks related to sourcing of inputs not produced domestically
• bottlenecks that may negatively affect investment plans and downstream industrial
plans
• level of dependence on parts of the supply chains not present in the country

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Recent years have highlighted vulnerabilities in mineral supply chains, resulting from
several often interdependent factors. Geopolitical tensions over access to mineral
feedstocks, pinch points in supply chains, and strategic needs have all contributed to
the design, implementation, and financing of critical mineral strategies. Led initially by
advanced economies, an increasing number of emerging economies that want to position
themselves across various parts of global supply chains for energy and digital technologies
have announced similar strategies. More recently, mineral-producing countries have
joined the bandwagon.

Box 9. Is my domestic production sufficient to meet my industrial needs?

Information gathered about mineral production in relation to industrial needs will help
INFO inform a preliminary identification of which minerals are available domestically and
therefore could be considered as “strategic” for various reasons and which ones are
not sufficiently available (or not available at all), and therefore could be considered
as “critical.”
Information should include the analysis of mineral feedstocks produced locally and
needed by domestic industries. The data should assess the production and trade deficits
by mineral. For minerals available locally, it is important to assess whether those minerals
are likely to be sufficiently available over time both for domestic needs and to meet
international demand.
As countries seek to build their capabilities for local value chains, they may need to import
mineral feedstocks. Governments, therefore, need to have a good understanding of their
levels of dependency on minerals and metals that are not available locally (or available in
insufficient amounts) to be able to assess, anticipate and manage any risks associated
with the security of supply. Methodologies used by the EU (European Commission, 2023b),
the United States (Nassar & Fortier, 2021), the United Kingdom (BGS, 2022), Australia
(Australian Government, 2023), or Canada (Natural Resources Canada, 2022) provide
good examples for conducting such assessments.
Appendix D provides more details on types of information that governments may want to
collect to inform their policy documents and includes a set of indicators to conduct the
assessments.

Risk factors to consider:

• level of dependency on imports
• level of concentration of minerals production not produced in country
• geopolitical risks associated with the supply of minerals not produced in country
• regulatory frameworks in third countries
• conflicts such as those linked to war or political stability

4.1.4 Fiscal Considerations

In the context of the surging demand for critical minerals, the following questions will help
examine whether—and to what extent—current fiscal approaches and policies are fit for
purpose to ensure that mineral-rich countries collect an appropriate share of the financial
benefits arising from the extraction of their critical minerals. The information can also inform
whether (or not) and what types of fiscal policies and incentives can be implemented to
support the development of midstream and downstream supply chains.

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Box 10. Are my fiscal policies fit for purpose for appropriate collection of financial
benefits and incentivization of local industrial development?

Information gathered in this section should help assess whether existing set of fiscal
INFO instruments and administrative practices are fit for purpose when considering critical
minerals extraction and beneficiation.
While the fundamentals of fiscal policies are likely to remain largely the same,
governments may want to reflect on whether the rising demand for critical minerals
requires a recalibration of existing financial benefit-sharing systems and instruments, and
if so, what types of instruments would be relevant in that context.
Governments are recommended to examine current practices regarding pricing and
valuation, with regard to specific minerals or to mine wastes and tailings that may contain
commercially exploitable concentrations of critical minerals. Current fiscal regimes will
need to be assessed on that basis.
To optimize financial benefits that may be derived from higher demand for some
critical minerals, governments may want to give higher consideration to issues such as
ringfencing, tax incentives, state participation, ownership of mining rights by large end
users in the value chain, and administrative capacity for tax administration, amongst
others.
To support the development of local industrial capabilities and foster R&D and innovation,
governments may want to assess what types of incentives would be required to stimulate
investments in supply chains. Incentives could take the form of fiscal instruments or
non-fiscal instruments, such as concessional access to finance for local firms, duty-free
imports of inputs and equipment, or the creation of special economic zones.
Appendix D provides more details on types of information that governments may want to
collect to inform their policy documents and includes a set of indicators to conduct the
assessments.

Risk factors to consider:

• undervalued minerals production affects government revenues
• underpriced or lack of transparency in pricing mechanisms affects government
revenues
• risks of tax base erosion and profit shifting
• missed opportunity to leverage the benefits of rising demand
• corruption
• market distortions resulting from incentives

4.1.5 Social and Environmental Considerations

Companies that fail to consult and engage with mining-affected communities will face a
backlash that can hold back mining projects. Acquiring and maintaining the so-called ‘’social
licence to operate’’ should, therefore, be a key aspect of criticality assessments and of mineral
strategy to secure mineral production.

In several countries, the mining sector already faces growing opposition from local and
international communities. These are linked to various environmental challenges and social

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issues, such as human rights abuses and gender-based violence. Expansion of mining
activities can exacerbate existing or increase potential conflicts over access to water and
land use with local communities. There are real concerns that measures to fast-track mineral
development projects may be conducted at the expense of appropriate consultations, further
antagonizing relationships with local communities.

Box 11. What key social issues do I need to consider to constructively engage with
mining-affected communities and ensure benefits for society at large?

The information gathered in this section provides an overview of the social landscape
INFO and issues relevant to securing the mining social licence to operate. It seeks to
understand whether there is a platform to consult and consider local communities.
This is necessary to manage the relationship with Indigenous communities, ensure
local community development, and build resilience.
Information should include detailed and historical databases and geographical maps of
mining projects that coexist with local communities. Particular attention should be paid
to potential overlaps between mining projects and community-owned land, including
Indigenous and ancestral land, where applicable.
To the extent possible, governments should ensure they maintain a repository of voluntary
actions and community development agreement plans as well as projects executed under
those plans to ensure continuous knowledge management. They must ensure that they
keep track of conflicts with communities over time, as ownership of companies changes
hands.
When relevant, implementation of local content policies, such as requirements and
opportunities for local employment, skills development, business opportunities, and
shared infrastructure, need to be monitored and assessed (disaggregated by gender
where possible). This would allow governments to better plan and update their local
content policies, assess the extent to which communities’ demands align with companies’
policies, and compare training opportunities and quality across different locations.
Appendix E provides more details on the types of information that governments may want
to collect to inform their policy documents and includes a set of indicators for conducting
the assessments.

Risks factors to consider:

• historical tensions and conflicts with local communities in direct relation or not with
mining activities
• tensions with communities over land rights and traditional lands
• tensions with communities over the perceived inequitable split of revenues by the
central government
• tensions with communities over lack of local employment opportunities in the
mining operation
• human rights abuses and gender-based violence

Likewise, should there be significant environmental risks, producing countries will not be able
to develop or expand mining projects without (or against) the consent of their population,
particularly of communities that live close to mine sites.

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Mining is the industrial sector that generates the largest volume of wastes. It is a highly
energy- and water-intensive activity, usually associated with negative externalities, such as
deforestation and water, air, and noise pollution. As any impact on the environment affects
local communities, environmental conflicts can exacerbate unresolved tensions that will result
in social conflicts, posing risks to mining projects.

Box 12. What environmental issues are critical for the sustainability of my mining
sector?

It is critical to make sure that sufficient and appropriate safeguards are in place to
INFO avoid creating or exacerbating environmental challenges. Information gathered in this
section will help governments monitor the sustainability of the mining sector from an
environmental perspective.
Assessing the impacts of mining activities on the environment, as well as the
interconnected effect of climate change on mining activities, would enable governments
to put in place the necessary safeguards to address the environmental impacts of mining
activities. Data gathered should include historical accounts of the impacts of mining
activities on the environment, water quality, availability, use and access to water rights,
the impact of mining on air quality, and potential overlaps between mining activities and
nature and biodiversity, amongst others.
It is necessary to assess the extent to which climate change that induces new
environmental conditions (e.g., more frequent and more intense climatic events), is
expected to impact mining operations and surrounding communities. This makes
it possible to implement appropriate mitigation measures to build resilient mining
communities, operations, and supply chains.
Appendix E provides more details on types of information that governments may want to
collect to inform their policy documents and includes a set of indicators to conduct the
assessments.

Risk factors to consider:

• externalities such as water, soil, and air pollution
• tensions with other stakeholders over water rights
• nature and biodiversity sensitivity
• environmental risks associated with technologies used to process ore grades.9

9 For example, the high-pressure acid leach technology used in Indonesia, although necessary from an
economic standpoint to process low-grade laterite ore, might appear as an environmental ticking bomb
that could ultimately disrupt nickel supply.

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4.1.6 Geopolitical Considerations

Analysis of the information regarding the types of policies and strategies being deployed
elsewhere (e.g., industrial policies to develop local capabilities, trade policies to secure access
to minerals, and political alliances among groups of third partners) will provide a better
understanding of how they can or will have impacts on producing countries.

Box 13. Which minerals are considered critical by my main trading partners, and
what are the key industrial uses in those markets?

Information on criteria used by destination countries to define criticality will provide

INFO a good understanding of challenges linked to different aspects of supply chains and
the associated geostrategic implications.
Global policies will significantly impact demand and supply of critical minerals and will
reshuffle supply chains. Governments, therefore, need to assess the implications of global
strategies on critical minerals for the mining sector at the national level.

Information gathered must cover the following issues:

Understanding criticality as defined by main trading partners, assessing the mineral scope
associated with those definitions, the industries and technologies for which they are
relevant, and measures taken by partner countries to manage and mitigate risks. This also
includes specific policies from destination countries to limit sourcing of critical minerals
from a unique supplying country.10
The role of the country in global supply chains, i.e., what is the share of the country’s
exports of critical minerals to partner countries that have critical minerals strategies and
in global demand, more generally. Governments also need to get data on other sources of
supplies to assess their bargaining power.
Understanding global needs, i.e., having a good understanding of the major technologies
that require such critical minerals is essential. It can guide policies to find alternative
markets to avoid asset stranding in case measures taken by destination countries to
address risks associated with criticality lead to mineral substitution in technologies.
Appendix F provides more details on the types of information that governments may want
to collect to inform their policy documents and includes a set of indicators to conduct the
assessments.

Risk factors to consider:

• pressure from international partners to sign bilateral agreements and memoranda
of understandings (MOUs), in particular, if countries do not have a clear domestic
strategy in place
• de-risking policies in partner countries to mitigate risks may have unintended
consequences for producing countries
• search for alternative sources can affect producing countries
• orientations in R&D to de-risk supply chain vulnerabilities may accelerate
technological changes, with different mineral feedstock needs

10 The EU Critical Raw Material Act (CRMA) last disclosed in 2023 sets benchmarks to diversify EU
supply by 2030: no more than 65% of the Union's annual consumption of each strategic raw material at
any relevant stage of processing should be sourced from a single third country.

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4.1.7 Governance, Legal, and Regulatory Considerations

As countries design or review their policies to consider the rising demand for minerals
and metals, it is important to have a good overview of the status of current regulatory
frameworks and how they might evolve over time. Governments need to ensure coherence
and consistency, in particular with regard to future development plans. Domestic regulations
give important signals to foreign partners (investors, trading partners, etc.) and therefore
must be in line with national development ambitions while remaining consistent with their
international commitments.

Most countries have legal obligations at the international level through agreements signed
over the years with investors and/or with trading partners. As development ambitions evolve,
domestic measures may not always be compatible with bilateral and multilateral agreements
already in place. Governments may, therefore, have to design other types of measures (with
similar effects) or engage their partners to avoid legal disputes.

Furthermore, there could also be several industry-to-industry agreements in place, such

as offtakes or long-term supply contracts, or even deals such as infrastructure financed by
external partners in exchange for natural resources. Through these deals, mining companies
or governments may have already committed a large share of mineral production to
international buyers or to trading partners. Governments should track and monitor these
agreements and assess their implications, namely for the availability of mineral resources for
domestic uses and for other issues, such as revenue collection.

Box 14. What policies, legislation, and regulations have an impact on my mining
sector?

This question is aimed at taking stock of policies and obligations at various levels—
INFO national, regional, and international.
Governments need to map out all existing domestic policies,11 measures, and instruments
that can impact the mining sector, covering the entire life cycle of the mine. Gaps must
be identified so that plans to explore and produce minerals and to process or reprocess
tailings are not held back by regulatory bottlenecks and that there is no trade-off
regarding sustainable mining practices.
It is recommended that governments gather information regarding ESG policies and
performance indicators from mining companies to ensure a level playing field in terms of
responsible mining practices from all industrial actors, including state-owned companies,
operating in their territories.
With regard to international agreements and partnerships, it is necessary to keep track
of all bilateral and international agreements that could be relevant for critical minerals.
These include, for example, trade and investment agreements, MOUs and strategic
partnership agreements, and scientific and technical cooperation or infrastructure for
resource deals. The impacts of those agreements for the mining sector and on national or
regional development goals must be regularly assessed.

11Examples of policies include mining codes, environmental regulations, mining contracts, local content
policies, beneficiation strategies, and regulations that already identify specific types of minerals for
specific purposes.

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Where possible, governments need to take stock of other types of agreements, such as
long-term supply contracts and offtake agreements that mining companies may have
signed with trading partners or with supply chain actors. The nature and time frame of
these deals need to be understood as they may impact the ability of local industries to
access critical minerals when required for domestic manufacturing industries.
Governments are advised to regularly assess the effectiveness of domestic regulatory
measures and other forms of incentives aimed at supporting industrial development.
Data will allow governments to adjust measures and dedicate financial resources to
accompany the strategic sector. Developing countries may face financial constraints in
supplying domestic industries. In that case, engaging with financial institutions isPhoto:
key. Raina Hattingh
Appendix G provides more details on the types of information that governments may
want to collect to inform their policy documents and includes a set of indicators to
conduct the assessments.

Risk factors to consider:

• Regulatory bottlenecks impact the ability to start mining operations.
• Pressure to mine more may have unintended negative consequences due to gaps in
regulations.
• Trade and investment agreements limit the policy space of governments to meet
development goals.
• Restrictive domestic trade and investment instruments affect global supply chains.
• Industry-to-industry agreements limit the ability of local industries to access
critical minerals.

Governments need to make sure that regulatory frameworks are in line with good governance
practices at the global level. Global frameworks exist to address corruption, human rights
abuses, and transparency and accountability, among other aspects of the mining sector. At
the same time, mining companies are also engaged in voluntary sustainability standards.

Box 15. What global governance frameworks are applicable to my mining sector?

This question is aimed at understanding how global sustainability governance

INFO frameworks affect mining activities and whether global processes are owned and
implemented at the national level.
Sustainability initiatives in the mining sector, including voluntary standards, play a key
role in advancing good practices and in informing governments, consumers, and investors
about how minerals are sourced. They are meant to be part of the solution to mitigate
impacts on local communities, society, and the environment. The rise in demand for
critical minerals is likely to lead to more mining activities. Governments need to actively
promote and enable responsible mining practices in all sizes of mining operations to
minimize the potential negative impacts and avoid unintended consequences for local
communities and the environment associated with increased activities.
In countries where challenges associated with risks of conflicts exist, governments need
to actively engage in global discussions related to conflict minerals, given that some
critical minerals may be mined together with conflict minerals.

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Appendix G provides more details on the types of information that governments may want
to collect to inform their policy documents and includes a set of indicators for conducting
the assessments.

Risk factors to consider:

• local mining actors like artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) excluded from supply
chains
• the lack of coherence between discussions around conflict minerals and critical
minerals
• lack of implementation of global frameworks because producing countries are not
actively involved in global discussions.

Some critical minerals are mined in regions where governance challenges have been observed,
such as regions prone to conflicts or human rights violations. For instance, tin, tantalum, and
tungsten (3Ts) are considered as potential “conflict minerals” when they are mined from
conflict-affected or high-risk areas (CAHRAs). The sourcing of the 3Ts is regulated by law
at the global level by importing countries, industrial sectors, or stock markets if mined in
CAHRAs (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD], 2016).

However, the 3Ts are also considered critical minerals by several countries, as Appendix H
highlights. This raises the question of the extent to which criticality assessments consider
risks related to conflict and what safeguards are in place to ensure that the heightened
attention given to supplying more critical minerals (that are also conflict minerals) does not
unintentionally fuel more conflicts in already-fragile jurisdictions.

Governments need to make sure to monitor the evolution of conflict and critical minerals
regulations concurrently, given that there does not seem to be a clear connection across
those policy instruments.

In cases where critical minerals are mined as by-products of conflict minerals, producing
countries must anticipate how responsible sourcing policies may evolve so they are able to
take the necessary measures to address potential weaknesses in their mineral supply chains.

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4.2 Summary of Outcome Expected From Step 2

Based on this stocktaking exercise, governments should outline a preliminary comprehensive
list of the minerals and metals to be considered for further investigations. Strategic decisions,
policies, and implementation measures can then be considered in the following Step 3.

FIGURE 2. A two-stage approach to knowing your resources and assessing their

associated risks

Step 2: Stock Taking and Risk Mapping

Stage 1 Stage 2
Screening of minerals Preliminary analysis

List I:
Minerals essential for
strategic objectives
All minerals List II:
Minerals with strong
potential for objectives
Other minerals

Source: Authors, based on Viebahn et al., 2015.

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5.0 Step 3: Strategic considerations
Understanding Taking stock and Making strategic
Review process
criticality risk mapping decision

Once Steps 1 and 2 are completed, governments need to decide what types of policies, tools,
and instruments are most suitable for attaining their objectives. This section highlights three
complementary strategic orientations that governments need to consider before designing
the critical minerals policies and associated lists.

5.1 National Priorities

Based on the assessments made in Step 2, governments must clarify the role that their
mining sector plays, or is expected to play, in national development plans. Minerals that have
been identified from Step 2 must be classified according to a nationally agreed taxonomy,
based on domestic needs, industrial trajectories, and global demands.

To guide policy implementation and engagement with industry stakeholders and global
partners, governments need to outline national priorities clearly. The definition of these
priorities should be informed by other national policies and by consultations with national
stakeholders, such as other government departments, industry actors, and representatives
of local communities. National policies should also consider regional initiatives and
commitments made at the global level to support resilient supply chains, notably for the
energy and digital transitions.

Key drivers of a critical minerals strategy

• beneficiation and value addition in the mining sector
• development of domestic and regional critical minerals supply chains
• securing higher revenues from critical minerals
• strategic positioning as suppliers of choice
• strategic positioning as investors of choice

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• ensuring a more socially responsible and inclusive mining sector

• application of circularity principles, including recycling, to produce critical minerals
from existing sources
• partnerships with supply chain actors (such as original equipment manufacturers;
specific technology companies etc.)
• managing geopolitical tensions while balancing response to global demands and
growing risks of trade wars

Potential scope of a critical mineral strategy

• new regulatory instruments specifically focused on those minerals (including
contracts and environmental laws)
• different forms of state participation, such as joint ventures with mining companies, or
creation of state-owned companies
• revision of fiscal policies and other financial benefit-sharing mechanisms
• provision of incentives to local supply chain industries
• domestic regulations and trade measures to limit exports of unprocessed minerals
• greater role for the artisanal and small-scale mining sector in critical minerals
• reprocessing of tailings and mining wastes
• national joint ventures, bilateral agreements with other producing and value-chain
countries, partnerships with industry players, and regional cooperation

Potential risks to consider

• lack of geological data
• insufficient industrial capabilities and related skills
• lack of access to finance to stimulate and advance industrial development
• insufficient access to infrastructure and high cost of energy
• price volatility and market uncertainty for some metals, especially minor ones
• change in technologies that may influence demand for some critical minerals
• lack of applicable legal and regulatory framework, alongside environmental and social
concerns
• social tensions and lack of trust from local communities
• lack of a coherent vision and objectives, information asymmetry, and capacity
constraints

5.2 Regional Initiatives

Alongside their national priority orientations, governments need to work collaboratively with
their neighbours to build on each other’s strengths and comparative advantages. In many
cases, domestic markets are small and nascent, and for industrial activities to become
competitive and thrive, economies of scale and larger markets need to be secured. Regional
initiatives must, therefore, be encouraged and supported. They will also act as a cooperation
tool to mitigate regional concurrence and a race to the bottom.

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Such regional initiatives, if harnessed, can support the development of resilient regional value
and supply chains to feed into priority sectors, such as e-mobility, renewable energy solutions,
or other electronic industries that are significant consumers of critical minerals.

Some elements to consider when designing regional initiatives:

• the importance of having coherent discussions on national critical minerals plans and
lists
• identification of priority regional value and supply chains, with clear roles defined for
each regional partner
• fiscal regime harmonization to avoid a race to the bottom
• coordination and knowledge sharing across countries
• regional investment mechanisms to facilitate investment across countries
• trade agreements, with rules of origin that facilitate supply chain development
• regional industrial policies, where standards are harmonized and technical barriers to
trade eliminated
• trade facilitation protocols that have removed cross-border trade challenges
influencing movement of goods and services across countries
• coordinated shared regional infrastructure to facilitate cross-border transportation

Bilateral initiatives across neighbouring countries are also important levers. An interesting
example is Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), who signed an
agreement in 2022 to set up a special economic zone for the joint development of electric
battery manufacturing capacity, notably using both countries’ mineral wealth. The DRC
is the world’s largest cobalt producer, Zambia is also a producer, and both countries have
copper reserves. In addition to cobalt, lithium, nickel, and manganese are also required for
the production of basic batteries. While the DRC has these resources, they are currently
not being mined, at least not at significant levels.
Discussions are ongoing with other regional partners, such as Gabon, Madagascar, and
Zimbabwe. A recent study by Bloomberg NEF (2021) estimated that building a battery
precursor manufacturing plant in the DRC could cost only a third of an equivalent plant
in China or the United States. Compared to Poland, for example, the cost is just under
two-thirds. Operating costs are similar and, as they are mostly driven by commodity
prices (85%), integrated operations that have access to cobalt at cost would be the most
competitive. Should the operation need to buy on the spot market, operating costs will be
affected by labour costs and are expected to be higher than in Poland, but still cheaper
than China and the United States (BloombergNEF, 2021).

5.3 Global Responsibilities

While producing countries have a duty to optimize the benefits from their mineral resources,
including by adding more value at the national and regional levels, they also play a key role
in supplying global markets. In recent months, several destination countries have entered
negotiations to sign bilateral agreements and MOUs to secure access to critical minerals.

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Producing countries need to ensure that the terms of these agreements and MOUs are fair
and that benefits are mutually shared.

As countries commit to achieving net-zero emissions and digital technologies become more
prominent, the demand for critical minerals and metals will surge. Midstream and downstream
industrial sectors and the countries that host them are particularly concerned around supply
shortages and/or disruptions. These challenges may affect the competitiveness of industries
and plans to build larger industrial capacities in the cutting-edge technologies needed to
embrace the energy and digital transition.

Given the complexity of global supply chains, no countries will be able on its own to provide
every technological solution for the energy transition and attendant digital technologies. In
that regard, global partnerships are crucial. Countries thus need to have clear objectives
defined regarding the scope of global partnerships to ensure they are able to position
themselves in global supply chains as suppliers of choice while benefiting fairly from the
critical mineral demand windfall. This would help buyers diversify their sources of supply
away from potential chokepoints, and thus address political risks associated with market
over-concentration.

Furthermore, there is a strong case to be made to attract investors to new industrial locations,
closer to critical minerals production centres and stimulate the development of value-added
activities to expand options. Having other industrial hubs for key parts of supply chains is a
de-risking strategy, for both producing and destination countries.

Commitments to lower greenhouse gas emissions also require that developing countries
produce their own energy transition solutions. Many countries need to secure access to basic
energy and transportation, and, as their population and economies grow, they will need to
substantially scale up their energy production. Building low-greenhouse gas-emission energy
capabilities is key to securing energy access. Being part of global supply chains is part of the
learning curve to develop industrial capabilities domestically or at the regional level.

28
6.0 Step 4: Review
Understanding Taking stock and Making strategic
Review process
criticality risk mapping decision

Designing a policy is not an end in itself. It must be administered and enforced, and progress
must be measured against realistic benchmarks, preferably in the form of goals to be
achieved. In the case of critical minerals, risks associated with criticality are a factor of time,
which may impact the mineral scope attached with the policy. The objective of the review
process is to evaluate whether the initial assessment is still valid after a period of time
and whether the administrative and enforcement tools efficiently delivered on the stated
objectives. The exercise allows governments to revise the strategy to reflect new realities and
changes in circumstances and adjust the tools in place (critical minerals strategy or critical
minerals list) to meet the overall objectives in a changing landscape.

Key elements of the review process are

• clear objectives outlined when designing the critical and/or strategic minerals policy
• measurable targets agreed against the policy objectives that can be assessed on an
annual basis
• a list of minerals considered as “critical” and or “strategic,” with indicators and
benchmarks that allow periodic reviews
• strong systems for collecting data on various elements that inform the policy design
and the list of critical and/ or strategic minerals
• a multistakeholder committee in place, with a mandate for a specific period of time,
tasked to review the list against the goals that governments have identified
• a time frame set to revisit the policy objectives and the targets, with the aim of
making recommendations to adjust the policy objectives and the mineral scope
accordingly.

29
What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
A practical guide for governments on building resilient supply chains

Common reporting frameworks allow governments to

• gather and aggregate data on various aspects of the mining value chain and
on the regulatory, geological, geopolitical, economic, social, and environmental
considerations
• obtain a holistic picture of the sector’s progress toward building resilient supply chains
• design realistic critical minerals policies and strengthen domestic capabilities, skills,
and technological knowledge to achieve mid- to longer-term development objectives.

30
7.0 Next Steps
Once the four steps are completed, governments will have identified the minerals that
are essential for their country’s strategic objectives. The next step is to design a critical
minerals strategy accompanied by a roadmap and related policy instruments, incentives, and
mechanisms to leverage the potential opportunities from their critical minerals' endowment,
while properly and effectively managing risks identified in the assessment conducted under
Steps 1 and 2.

The critical minerals strategy and the roadmap need to provide the strategic direction,
priorities, and timelines with regard to a set of well-defined objectives. The critical minerals
strategy and the roadmap should include the following key elements:

• clear goals and objectives: The roadmap should articulate the overarching goals and
objectives of governments regarding their development pathways. Goals must be
specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time bound.
• identified short-, medium-, and long-term priorities: The roadmap must clearly outline
the key initiatives and activities that need to be undertaken to achieve the stated
goals. These initiatives should be prioritized based on factors such as mineral resource
availability, strategic importance for industrial development, and market demand,
amongst others. Timelines must also be identified.
• risks and constraints: Governments must identify any constraints that may impact
the implementation of the roadmap. This could include domestic factors such as
industrial capabilities, technical skills, environmental and social acceptance, financial
resource limitations, regulatory requirements, or external risks, such as potential
geopolitical shifts and changes, as well as differing or potentially contentious critical
mineral policies of partners.
• availability of resources: The roadmap should provide a clear indication of financial,
human, and technical resources required to implement the strategy.
• geological data transparency: National geological surveys should collect and publish
more systematic geological information from exploration and from producing
companies.
• flexibility and adaptability: While the roadmap provides the milestones to implement
the critical minerals strategy, it should also allow for flexibility and adaptability, as

31
What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
A practical guide for governments on building resilient supply chains

circumstances may change, and new opportunities or challenges may arise, requiring
adjustments to be made.
• implementation and measuring performance: The roadmap should include key
performance indicators to measure the progress, successes, and failures of the
policies outlined. Tracking performance and evaluating the effectiveness of policies is
an important element for the periodic review of the list of critical minerals and of the
associated strategy overtime.
• Finally, countries should make a plan to review the assessments on a regular basis to
ensure they remain relevant over time.

32
8.0 Conclusion
The assessment of what makes mineral and metals critical is a multifaceted process that
requires comprehensive understanding, strategic planning, and proactive engagement. The
spotlight on critical minerals is driven by the significant risks associated with potential supply
bottlenecks or disruptions, compelling key industries and countries to minimize these risks
through various measures, such as diversifying supply sources and investing in research and
development for substitutes.

The importance of this assessment cannot be overstated, as critical minerals are essential
components of numerous industries, including those driving the energy and digital transitions.
As such, the assessment process outlined in this guiding document provides a valuable
framework for stakeholders to assess the criticality of minerals and metals within national,
regional, and global contexts. By addressing geological, production, economic, fiscal, market,
social, environmental, geopolitical, governance, legal, and regulatory factors, stakeholders can
gain insights into the risks and opportunities associated with critical minerals.

However, while the current focus on de-risking and diversifying supply chains presents a
window of opportunity for producing countries, it is essential to recognize that this window
may be short-lived. As solutions are developed to mitigate supply risks, the spotlight on
critical minerals may fade, highlighting the importance for producing countries to act swiftly
and strategically. Failure to capitalize on this opportunity may result in missed opportunities
for attracting investors, accessing finance, and fostering industrial growth.

Producing countries must, therefore, seize the moment to position themselves as suppliers
of choice across the value chain and adopt a proactive approach to maximize the benefits
of their mineral resources. This involves not only scaling up the production of minerals but
also participating in joint ventures, investing in complementary assets, and establishing
partnerships to enhance their competitiveness in the global market. With a sound
understanding of the dynamics of their mining sector and with enhanced efforts to innovate,
collaborate, and engage in strategic investments, producing countries can strengthen their
position as key players in the critical minerals market and contribute to sustainable economic
development at both national and global levels.

33
What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
A practical guide for governments on building resilient supply chains

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 What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
A practical guide for governments on building resilient supply chains

Appendix A. List of Critical Minerals in Selected Countries

United
European States, United South Japan China South
Union, Updated Canada Australia, Kingdom, Africa, India, (updated (2016– Brazil, Korea,
202312 in 202313 202214 202315 202216 2022 202317 2024)18 2020)19 202320 202321

Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Critical Energy/ Strategic Critical
and minerals minerals and minerals minerals minerals metallic/ and and
strategic list (2021) Strategic non- Critical strategic
raw and Minerals metallic Minerals minerals
materials Critical G1/G2/G3
minerals
for energy
(2023)

Aluminum ✓* ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
High-purity
alumina
✓

Antimony ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

12 Source: European Council, 2024.

13 Source: United States Department of Energy, 2023b.
14 Sources: Natural Resources Canada, 2022; Government of Canada, 2022a; 2022b.
15 Source: Department of Industry, Science and Resources, 2023.
16 Source: International Energy Agency, 2022.
17 Source: Ministry of Mines, 2023.
18 Source: Mineralprices.com, n.d.
19 Source: Pope & Smith, 2023. See Appendix B.
20 Source: Pope & Smith, 2023.
21 Source: International Energy Agency, 2023a.

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 What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
A practical guide for governments on building resilient supply chains

United
European States, United South Japan China South
Union, Updated Canada Australia, Kingdom, Africa, India, (updated (2016– Brazil, Korea,
202312 in 202313 202214 202315 202216 2022 202317 2024)18 2020)19 202320 202321

Arsenic ✓ ✓ ✓
Baryte ✓ ✓
Beryllium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Bismuth ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Borates ✓ ✓
Cadmium ✓
Cesium ✓ ✓
Chromium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Cobalt ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Coking coal ✓ ✓
Copper ✓ ■ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Electrical
steel
■

Fluorine ■ ✓ ✓
Fluorspar ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

40
 What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
A practical guide for governments on building resilient supply chains

United
European States, United South Japan China South
Union, Updated Canada Australia, Kingdom, Africa, India, (updated (2016– Brazil, Korea,
202312 in 202313 202214 202315 202216 2022 202317 2024)18 2020)19 202320 202321

Gallium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Germanium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Graphite ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Gold ✓ ✓
Hafnium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Helium ✓ ✓ ✓
Indium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Iron ✓ ✓ ✓
Lead ✓ ✓
Lithium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Magnesium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Manganese ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ O ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Molybdenum ✓ ✓ ✓
Nickel ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ O ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

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 What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
A practical guide for governments on building resilient supply chains

United
European States, United South Japan China South
Union, Updated Canada Australia, Kingdom, Africa, India, (updated (2016– Brazil, Korea,
202312 in 202313 202214 202315 202216 2022 202317 2024)18 2020)19 202320 202321

Niobium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Phosphate
rocks
✓ ✓ ✓

Phosphorus ✓ O ✓
Potash ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Rare-earth
elements
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

Rhenium ✓ ✓ ✓
Selenium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Silicon ■ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Silicon
carbide
■

Silicon ✓ ✓
metal

Sulphur

Tantalum ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Strontium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

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 What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
A practical guide for governments on building resilient supply chains

United
European States, United South Japan China South
Union, Updated Canada Australia, Kingdom, Africa, India, (updated (2016– Brazil, Korea,
202312 in 202313 202214 202315 202216 2022 202317 2024)18 2020)19 202320 202321

Tellurium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Rubidium ✓ ✓
Tin ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Thallium ✓ ✓
Titanium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Tungsten ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Vanadium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Uranium ✓ ✓ ✓
Zinc ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Zirconium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) - six metals

Ruthenium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ O ✓ ✓ ✓
Rhodium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Palladium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Osmium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

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United
European States, United South Japan China South
Union, Updated Canada Australia, Kingdom, Africa, India, (updated (2016– Brazil, Korea,
202312 in 202313 202214 202315 202216 2022 202317 2024)18 2020)19 202320 202321

Iridium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ O ✓ ✓ ✓
Platinum ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

*Bauxite/alumina/aluminum
United States Department of Energy, 2023a. Materials with an ■ are not on the DOE CM list; O UK watch list.
Source: Compiled by authors.

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Appendix B. Mapping Selected Minerals and Metals Against

Energy Transition and Digital Technologies
ENERGY TRANSITION TECHNOLOGIES DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES SOCIETY

Solar Wind Electric vehicles Hydrogen Smartphones, Data Data Electronics Food, Medicine
photovoltaics turbines tablets, & transmission storage and kitchen (including
Li-on Fuel Electric Electrolyzers laptops networks servers appliances utensils, dental
batteries cells tractor and implants,
motors household surgical
products tools, and
(cleaners, machines)
paints, etc.)

Copper ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Cobalt ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Nickel ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Manganese ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Lithium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
REEs ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Chromium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Zinc ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
PGMs ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Aluminum ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Vanadium ✓

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 What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
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ENERGY TRANSITION TECHNOLOGIES DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES SOCIETY

Solar Wind Electric vehicles Hydrogen Smartphones, Data Data Electronics Food, Medicine
photovoltaics turbines tablets, & transmission storage and kitchen (including
Li-on Fuel Electric Electrolyzers laptops networks servers appliances utensils, dental
batteries cells tractor and implants,
motors household surgical
products tools, and
(cleaners, machines)
paints, etc.)

Molybdenum ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Graphite ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Silicon ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Niobium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Iron ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Gallium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Germanium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Titanium ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Gold ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Potassium ✓
Silver ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Tin ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

Source: European Commission, 2023a: Hilson, forthcoming; IEA, 2023b; Kowalski & Legendre: 2023; Ramdoo, forthcoming.

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What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
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Appendix C. Data Checklist and Key Indicators of Risks

Regarding Geological Consideration
1. What minerals are available in my country?
Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/indicators

Geological and subnational considerations

Geological data a. Geological mapping • Percentage of territory covered by geological mapping

• Geophysical maps

b. Mineral occurrences • Maps of mineral occurrences

Mining potential a. List of deposits • Map of mines and identified deposits

• Database of existing projects

b. Comprehensive information for each • Location

deposit • Commodity
• 3D model
• Volume of ores and grade of mineralization
• Resources estimates
• Reserves estimates
• Mineral processing pathways
• Last feasibility study and all previous technical reports

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Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/indicators

C. Mineral associations • Multi-element geochemical composition of each deposit

• By-production potential for mineral and metals
• By-production potential in percentage of mineral value in the deposit
• List of main elements in deposits expected to end-up in tailings
• List of potential radioactive elements in the deposit (uranium, thorium,
radium…)
• List of potential heavy metals in the deposit (lead, zinc, cadmium…)

d. Access to infrastructures • Map of transportation network (roads, rails, rivers, airports, ports…)
• Map of electricity network
• Map of water resources

Land use a. Potential overlap with • Map of world heritage sites

environmentally sensible areas • Map of conservation areas and biodiversity hotspots

b. Potential overlap with human usages • Map of community developments

Possible information sources:

• national geological surveys, statistics, and cadastral information
• foreign geological surveys
• companies’ exploration reports
• pre-feasibility and feasibility studies
• national geophysical and geological campaigns
• other experts’ reports

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What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
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Appendix D. Data Checklist and Key Indicators of Risks

Regarding Production, Economic, and Market Considerations
2. How much do I produce? Geological and subnational considerations
Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/indicators

Reserves data a. Reserves by commodity • See Appendix C

Production data b. Production by commodity; by size of • Historical and current production in volume
mining activities (historical, actual, and • Historical and current production by value
potential) • Estimated growth in production by commodity in-country for ongoing
mining activities
• No. of exploration permits
• Feasibility studies completed, and estimated reserves
• No. of projects under construction and in final stage of construction
• Production growth for similar commodities in other producing
countries

c. Depletion time of reserves • Years

d. The degree of mineral concentration • Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI)

in-country

e. Mineral production in total mining • % share of national mining production

production (by mineral). • % share of global production

f. Minerals produced as co-product and • % share of national mining production

by-products. • % share of global production

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What Makes Minerals and Metals “Critical”?
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Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/indicators

g. Minerals exported, by volume and by • Types of minerals exported

value. • Exports by volume
• Exports by value
• % Minerals exports as a share of total exports
• % share of country’s minerals exports in global exports (by
commodity)

h. Share of minerals produced by ASM • Production by type of commodity

• Production by value
• Production by volume

i. Alternative sources of supply, by • Types of minerals and metals recycled domestically.

source: • Share of recycled products as a share of total product
• Recycling • Projected supply growth from recycling
• Reprocessing of mining of wastes • Types of minerals produced from mine wastes/tailings
and tailings • Share in total mineral produced
• Any potential minerals from deep • Projected supply growth from reprocessing of tailings
seabed mineral resources • Estimated volume

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Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/indicators

Demand for minerals a. Domestic demand by commodity • Estimated domestic demand by commodity in-country
• Types of minerals by industrial need
• % share minerals sold to domestic industries
• Estimated growth in demand by commodity
• Elasticity of mineral demand

b. Domestic demand by applications • Estimated growth in domestic demand by application

and by sectors • Estimated growth in domestic demand by sector
• Elasticity of demand for specific applications
• Elasticity of demand by sector

c. External demand by commodity by • Estimated growth in global demand by application

application and by sector • Estimated growth in global demand by sector

d. Likeliness that technological changes • New technologies by application

will affect minerals demand • Critical minerals mix by technology

Possible information sources:

• national statistics
• mining companies’ reporting

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3. How important is the mining sector to my country?

Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/indicators

Contribution of the a. Overall economic contribution of • % Share of mining sector to national income
mining sector to the mining • % Share of mining sector to GDP
economy • Contribution of mining to foreign revenues

b. Contribution of mining to • % share of direct mining employment in total employment, by gender

employment • % share of indirect mining employment in total employment, by
gender

c. Public sector investment in mining • Share of public investment in mining sector to total public
sector investments (by type of activity from exploration to closure)
• Share of public expenditure on R&D and innovation on mining and
mineral-related activities
• No. of patents, industrial designs filed (related to mining value chains)

d. Private investment in mining • Share of domestic private investments in mining to total domestic
private investments (in exploration; in production; in refineries and
smelting)
• Share of foreign direct invest (FDI) in mining to total FDI

Information on a. Prospection and exploration phase • Number of prospection and exploration permits delivered
producing companies • Exploration budgets by commodities, by stage and by company type
• Growth in exploration budget over time by commodities, by stage and
by company
• Investment projects in the pipeline

b. Production phase • Number of exploitation permits delivered by location and by

commodity
• Number of producing companies by mine site

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Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/indicators

b. Production phase • Number of producing companies by commodities (including by- and

co- products identified in feasibility studies but not necessarily
produced)
• Number of producing companies by size
• Number of investment projects in the pipeline by types of investment
(greenfield, brownfield, extension, mergers & acquisitions)
• Mergers & acquisitions history and planned
• Ownership structures of producing companies (and nationality of
owners)
• In-country geographical distribution of producing companies, by
commodities and by size.

c. Mining and refining capacity • Types of minerals and metals refined/ smelted in-country
• Volume and value of minerals and metals refined and smelted in-
country
• Share of refined and smelted production sold to domestic industries
• Share of refined and smelted production exported
• Planned mining and refining projects

Trade data a. Exports • List of export trading partners for mining

• Key exports by commodities in volume
• Key exports by commodities in value
• Share of exports by commodities in total mining exports
• Key exports by trading partner in value
• Key exports by trading partner in volume
• Share of mining exports by trading partners on total mining exports

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Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/indicators

b. Imports • List of importing trading partners for mining

• Key imports by commodities in value
• Key imports by commodities and in volume
• Share of imports by commodities in total mining imports
• Key imports by trading partner in value
• Key imports by trading partner in volume
• Share of mining imports by trading partners on total mining imports

c. Trade balance • Overall trade balance for mining

• Export dependency ratio on mining
• Import dependency ratio on mining
• Time series change in share of trading partners in mining imports and
exports

d. Share of country in global trade • % share of country in global trade by commodity

• Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI)

e. Trade measures in place • By commodity, if applicable (e.g., export licensing; export restrictions
etc.)
• Performance requirements, if applicable
• Restrictions on sectors or specific minerals for investment
• Incentives to stimulate mining-related industrial development or
development of mining activities

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4. Which minerals are essential to my country’s strategic objectives?

Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/indicators

Industrial development a. Country’s industrial roadmap (current • Scope of industrial policies where mining is relevant
considerations and future plans) • Key technological and industrial sectors in-country and globally for
which critical minerals are indispensable

b. Beneficiation and midstream • (See also information in Appendix B)

capabilities • Number of refiners/smelters in operation
• Investment pipeline in refining/smelting
• Share of minerals produced domestically supplied to local refiners/
smelters
• Production by type/volume/value of refiners/smelters
• Plans to build refineries/ smelters and their expected capacity
(timeline projections)
• Share of country’s exports of refined/smelted products
• Share of country’s imports of refined/smelter products

c. Downstream capabilities • List of sectors/industries that currently require mineral resources

produced domestically
• List of (critical) mineral-intensive sectors/industries identified as
potential drivers for future growth
• % share of domestic demand for critical minerals mined in my country
(current and projected) by sector/industry
• % share of global demand for critical minerals mined in my country
(current and projected) by sector/ industry

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5. Are there any minerals that I do not produce (or not sufficiently produce) but are key to my
domestic industries?

Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/indicators

Domestic availability a. Reliance on imports and vulnerability • Key domestic industries that rely heavily on imports of specific
of critical minerals of supply chains minerals in high demand
• Key minerals imported for specific industries, by type, volume, and
value
• Top importing partner countries
• Degree of concentration of mineral production by producing countries
• Import dependency ratio by mineral and by country
• Top producing countries of minerals imported and their share in global
production

6. Will current fiscal approaches and policies ensure that producing countries collect an appropriate share of
the financial benefits arising from the extraction of their critical minerals?

Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/indicators

Fiscal considerations a. Current fiscal contribution of the • Types of fiscal instruments in place relevant to mining
mining sector • Contribution of mineral resources to government fiscal revenues by
type of instrument
• Contribution of mineral resources to export revenues

b. Pricing models • Types of mineral pricing methods and practices (incl. any specific
commodity pricing methods)

c. Benefit-sharing tools • Types of financial benefit-sharing systems and instrument

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Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/indicators

d. Future fiscal considerations Guiding questions for policy discussions:

• Are there alternative financial benefit-sharing models that would
be more appropriate for critical minerals considering governments’
broader policy goals?
• Are there gaps to consider in the valuation of mine tailings and how
they are considered in mining and/or tax legislation?
• Do current fiscal regimes capture potentially valuable by-products
and co-products?
• Are there benefit-sharing opportunities along the critical minerals
value chain that require further consideration (tools such as
ringfencing, tax incentives, valuation of minerals; and practice
issues such as state participation, ownership of mining rights by
large end users in the value chain, administrative capacity for tax
administration)?

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Appendix E. Data Checklist and Key Indicators of Risks

Regarding Social and Environment Considerations
7. What are the key social issues I need to consider to constructively engage with mining-affected
communities and ensure benefits for society at large?

Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/indicators

Social considerations a. Existing mining-neighbour • A database of mining projects that coexist with local communities
communities • A map that identifies potential overlap between mining projects
and local communities’ land (and Indigenous People’s land where
applicable)

b. Community participation and a • Agreements with Indigenous Peoples

repository of community development • Local employment as a share of employment at mine site, by gender
agreement plans and their scope, where • Local procurement as a share of operational expenditures at mine site,
relevant disaggregated by gender where available
• Social services provided by mining companies

c. Community consultations and • Grievance mechanisms, where applicable

engagements • Conflicts history with communities
• Case law on conflicts with communities

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8. What environmental issues are essential for the sustainability of my mining sector?

Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/indicators

Climate change Climate change vulnerability • Qualitative

• Assessment of the country’s vulnerability to climate change, where
available

Energy Energy intensity • kJ/tonne of ore extracted

• kJ/tonnes metal processed
• kJ/tonnes of metal refined

Air Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions • Tonnes of CO2e/tonne of ore extracted

• Tonnes of CO2e/tonnes metal processed
• Tonnes of CO2e/tonnes of metal refined
• Level of GHG emissions of the mining industry in total country’s GHG
emissions

Air quality • Emission of particulate matter

Water Water intensity • Water consumption by mining operation/T produced

Water quality • Number of sample results above national or World Health

Organization recommendations

Biodiversity Biodiversity sensitivity • Existence of protected fauna and flora in the vicinity of the mining
project (International Union for Conservation of Nature conservation
list)

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Appendix F. Data Checklist and Key Indicators of Risks

Regarding Geopolitical Considerations
9. Which minerals are considered as “critical” for my main trading partners, and what are their key industrial
uses in those markets?
Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/indicators

Market intelligence of a. Understanding criticality of main • List of countries that have a critical minerals strategy
third countries trading partners: • Scope of (partners) critical minerals strategies
• A mapping of domestic minerals • List of minerals that are covered on these lists
production against key partners’ • Partners' critical mineral exports by type, by volume, by partner, by
critical minerals lists share
• Identification of minerals in partners’ • List of industry players in partner countries
critical minerals strategies already • List of relevant policy instruments of partner countries
exported
• Identification of industries and
sectors in partner countries that
have the highest demand for critical
minerals
• Identification of key policies and
instruments of partner countries
to secure access to their critical
minerals

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Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/indicators

b. Mapping domestic and global • A mapping of domestic sectors and applications that use minerals in
demand for partners’ critical minerals critical mineral lists
• A mapping of global demand and supply (current and forecasted) of
(partners’) critical minerals production
• Share of domestic production in global production
• What other technologies need critical minerals (other than renewable
energy and digital)

c. Understanding global supply chains • Critical minerals produced in partner countries, by sectors and by
• A mapping of global supply chains application
for (partners’) critical minerals • Depth of supply chains by sector and by industry
produced domestically • Share of specific countries in key parts of supply chains by sector and
• Mapping geographical locations of by industry
key parts of supply chains • Identification of potential choke points in global supply chains

d. Understanding global competition • Key producing countries of critical minerals: by name and by share of
global production
• Geographical location of global reserves by critical minerals
• Political landscape surrounding key producing countries (i.e., political
instability; governance challenges; conflicts; human rights issues)

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Appendix G. Data Checklist and Key Indicators of Risks

Regarding Governance, Legal, and Regulatory Issues
10. What policies, legislations, regulations have an impact on my mining sector?
Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/indicators

Regulatory frameworks a. Domestic policies22 • Mapping of policies by type and scope

• Plans to elaborate policies for • List of existing policies/ measures/instruments that have implications
specific minerals or for specific on exploration projects
sectors • List of existing policies/ measures/instruments that have implications
• Plans to develop industries that on mining production and processing activities
require mineral feedstocks produced • List of existing policies/ measures/instruments that have implications
locally on international trade of specific minerals, by type of measure
• Documentation of plans, and analysis of scope of application and of
feasibility
• Timeline estimated for their implementation

b. ESG policies and performance • If available, policies of mining companies regarding ESG
indicators of mining companies • When published, mining companies’ ESG performance indicators

c. International agreements • Types of agreements and their legal status

• Scope of trade agreements with partner countries (with relevant for
minerals)
• Scope of investment agreements with states (such as bilateral
investment treaties) or with companies (mining contracts) that cover
mineral production and conditions of exports
• Other trade and investment frameworks particularly focused on
minerals (such as MOUs, framework agreements)

22 Examples of policies include mining codes; mining contracts; local content policies; beneficiation strategies; regulations that already identify specific
types of minerals for specific purposes.
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Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/indicators

d. Other relevant agreements/ • Existence and content of resource swap deals, that is, agreements
contractual obligations to exchange mineral resources for infrastructure or for loans. Offtake
agreements (by commodities and relevant industry; length and nature
of agreements)
• Long-term supply contracts (by commodities and relevant industry;
length of contracts, nature of contracts)

11. What global governance frameworks are applicable to my mining sector?

Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/indicators

Global governance a. Global frameworks around • Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI)
frameworks responsible supply chains • OECD Due Diligence Guidance on Responsible Supply Chains of
Minerals from Conflict-Affected and High-Risk Areas
• Section 1502 of the 2010 US Dodd–Frank Act
• European Regulations, such as 2017 EU Conflict Minerals Regulation;
2022 Battery Regulation; 2023 EU Critical Raw Materials Act

b. A mapping of host metals and their • Assessment to be conducted by countries that are in conflict-
co-products and by-products with affected or high-risk areas (CAHRAs)
partners’ conflict minerals and critical
minerals lists

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Factors to consider Data to be collected Unit/indicators

Risks Country risk • Corruption Perception Index (Transparency International)

• Resource Governance Index (Natural Resource Governance Institute)
• Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative Standards Reporting
• World Governance Index (World Bank)
• Global Political Risk Index (Eurasia Group)
• Policy Potential Index (Fraser Institute)
• Human Development Index (United Nations Development Programme)
• Global Peace Index (Institute for Economics & Peace)
• Civic space (Worldwide Governance Indicators’ Voice and
accountability)

Source: Adapted from Achzet & Helbig, 2013.

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Appendix H. Where Critical and Conflict

Minerals Overlap
It should be relevant to highlight that the “conflict minerals” listed below are mined alongside
other critical minerals, either as co-products or as by-products of host (conflict) minerals.
A case in point is lithium, which is often associated with tin when mined from hard rock,
especially in Central and Austral Africa, and currently being explored in some CAHRAs
deposits (Manono, located in the Democratic Republic of Congo, is the third largest lithium
deposit in the world and the largest hard-rock one; it has been mined for 6 decades over
the last century for its tin content). Although associated with (and therefore mined with) tin,
lithium is, however, currently not classified as a high-risk or conflict mineral in those CAHRAs.
This raises the question about policy inconsistencies and of the potential of risk spillovers not
being adequately addressed.

TABLE H1. What other minerals are associated with high-risk and conflict minerals?

Countries that
listed conflict
Conflict Associated critical minerals on critical
minerals minerals minerals lists23 Comments

Tin24 Arsenic, copper, Canada, United Tin is not on EU and

tungsten, zinc, Kingdom, and Australia critical minerals list
bismuth lithium25 United States

Tantalum26 Niobium, rare Australia, Canada,

(Columbite- earth elements, EU, United Kingdom,
Tantalite) lithium, tungsten, and United States
beryllium, tin
lithium27

Tungsten28 Copper, Australia, Canada,

(Wolframite) molybdenum, zinc, EU, United Kingdom,
tin, antimony and United States

Gold29 Arsenic, copper, None Gold is not considered

zinc, antimony, a critical mineral by any
tungsten, country
molybdenum

23 See Appendix A for a comparison of critical minerals lists.

24 Source: Mindat, n.d.-e.
25 Source: Mindat, n.d.-c.
26 Source: Mindat, n.d.-d.
27 Source : Mindat, n.d.-c.
28 Source : Mindat, n.d.-f.
29 Source: Mindat, n.d.-b.

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Countries that
listed conflict
Conflict Associated critical minerals on critical
minerals minerals minerals lists23 Comments

Cobalt30 Copper, nickel, Australia, Canada, Cobalt is not considered

gold, zinc, EU, United Kingdom, a conflict mineral in any
chromium and United States legislation. However, mining
practices from ASM in
regions of the DRC prone
to armed conflict and
human rights violations
confer similar governance
challenges to those
observed for tin, tantalum,
tungsten, and gold. Rising
demand for batteries makes
it a critical mineral, and
hence subject to regulatory
pressures for responsible31.

30 Source: Mindat, n.d.-a.

31 Source: Hönke & Skende, 2022.

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