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Energy and the Environment

James A. Fay
Dan S. Golomb

OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS

ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
 MIT-PAPPALARDO SERIES IN MECHANICAL ENGINEERING

Series Editors: ROHAN C. ABEYARATNE AND NAM P. SUH

ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

James A. Fay and Dan S. Golomb

AXIOMATIC DESIGN: ADVANCES AND APPLICATIONS

Nam P. Suh
ENERGY AND THE
ENVIRONMENT

James A. Fay
Department of Mechanical Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Dan S. Golomb
Department of Environmental, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences
University of Massachusetts Lowell

New York ◆ Oxford

OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS
2002
Oxford University Press
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Copyright © 2002 MIT

Published by Oxford University Press, Inc.

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All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,

stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means,
electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise,
without the prior permission of Oxford University Press.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Fay, James A.
Energy and the environment / James A. Fay, Dan S. Golomb.
p. cm.—(The MIT-Pappalardo Series in Mechanical Engineering)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-19-515092-9
1. Power resources—Environmental aspects. I. Golomb, D. II. Title. III. Series.
TD195.E49 F39 2002
333.79
14–dc21 2001036249

Printing number: 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Printed in the United States of America

on acid-free paper
To Gay and Claire
This page intentionally left blank
 CONTENTS

List of Tables xv
Foreword xvii
Preface xix

1 Energy and the Environment 1

1.1 Introduction 1
1.1.1 An Overview of This Text 2
1.2 Energy 6
1.2.1 Electric Power 7
1.2.2 Transportation Energy 8
1.2.3 Energy as a Commodity 9
1.3 The Environment 10
1.3.1 Managing Industrial Pollution 11
2 Global Energy Use and Supply 12
2.1 Introduction 12
2.2 Global Energy Consumption 12
2.3 Global Energy Sources 14
2.4 Global Electricity Consumption 16
2.5 Global Carbon Emissions 18
2.6 End-Use Energy Consumption in the
United States 19
2.6.1 Industrial Sector 20
2.6.2 Residential Sector 21
2.6.3 Commercial Sector 21
2.6.4 Transportation Sector 22
2.7 Global Energy Supply 22
2.7.1 Coal Reserves 22
2.7.2 Petroleum Reserves 24
2.7.3 Unconventional Petroleum Resources 25

vii
viii ◆ CONTENTS

2.7.4 Natural Gas Reserves 25

2.7.5 Unconventional Gas Resources 26
2.7.6 Summary of Fossil Reserves 27
2.8 Conclusion 27
Problems 28
Bibliography 29
3 Thermodynamic Principles of Energy Conversion 30
3.1 Introduction 30
3.2 The Forms of Energy 31
3.2.1 The Mechanical Energy of Macroscopic Bodies 31
3.2.2 The Energy of Atoms and Molecules 32
3.2.3 Chemical and Nuclear Energy 32
3.2.4 Electric and Magnetic Energy 33
3.2.5 Total Energy 33
3.3 Work and Heat Interactions 33
3.3.1 Work Interaction 34
3.3.2 Heat Interaction 35
3.4 The First Law of Thermodynamics 35
3.5 The Second Law of Thermodynamics 36
3.6 Thermodynamic Properties 37
3.7 Steady Flow 39
3.8 Heat Transfer and Heat Exchange 39
3.9 Combustion of Fossil Fuel 41
3.9.1 Fuel Heating Value 42
3.10 Ideal Heat Engine Cycles 45
3.10.1 The Carnot Cycle 46
3.10.2 The Rankine Cycle 48
3.10.3 The Otto Cycle 51
3.10.4 The Brayton Cycle 53
3.10.5 Combined Brayton and Rankine Cycles 55
3.11 The Vapor Compression Cycle: Refrigeration and Heat Pumps 56
3.12 Fuel Cells 58
3.13 Fuel (Thermal) Efficiency 62
3.14 Synthetic Fuels 63
3.14.1 The Hydrogen Economy 64
3.15 Conclusion 65
Problems 66
Bibliography 68
 Contents ◆ ix

4 Electrical Energy Generation, Transmission, and Storage 69

4.1 Introduction 69
4.2 Electromechanical Power Transformation 72
4.3 Electric Power Transmission 76
4.3.1 AC/DC Conversion 78
4.4 Energy Storage 78
4.4.1 Electrostatic Energy Storage 78
4.4.2 Magnetic Energy Storage 80
4.4.3 Electrochemical Energy Storage 81
4.4.4 Mechanical Energy Storage 83
4.4.5 Properties of Energy Storage Systems 84
4.5 Conclusion 85
Problems 86
Bibliography 87
5 Fossil-Fueled Power Plants 88
5.1 Introduction 88
5.2 Fossil-Fueled Power Plant Components 89
5.2.1 Fuel Storage and Preparation 89
5.2.2 Burner 90
5.2.3 Boiler 91
5.2.4 Steam Turbine 93
5.2.4.1 Impulse Turbine 93
5.2.4.2 Reaction Turbine 94
5.2.5 Gas Turbine 95
5.2.6 Condenser 96
5.2.7 Cooling Tower 97
5.2.7.1 Wet Cooling Tower 97
5.2.7.2 Dry Cooling Tower 98
5.2.8 Generator 98
5.2.9 Emission Control 99
5.2.9.1 Control of Products of Incomplete Combustion and
Carbon Monoxide 99
5.2.9.2 Particle Control 99
5.2.9.3 Sulfur Control 104
5.2.9.4 Nitrogen Oxide Control 109
5.2.9.5 Toxic Emissions 112
5.2.10 Waste Disposal 112
5.3 Advanced Cycles 113
5.3.1 Combined Cycle 113
x ◆ CONTENTS

5.3.2 Coal Gasification Combined Cycle 114

5.3.3 Cogeneration 115
5.3.4 Fuel Cell 116
5.4 Conclusion 116
Problems 117
Bibliography 119
6 Nuclear-Fueled Power Plants 120
6.1 Introduction 120
6.2 Nuclear Energy 121
6.3 Radioactivity 122
6.3.1 Decay Rates and Half-Lives 124
6.3.2 Units and Dosage 124
6.3.2.1 Biological Effects of Radiation 126
6.3.2.2 Radiation Protection Standards 126
6.4 Nuclear Reactors 127
6.4.1 Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) 129
6.4.2 Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) 130
6.4.3 Gas-Cooled Reactor (GCR) 132
6.4.4 Breeder Reactor (BR) 132
6.5 Nuclear Fuel Cycle 134
6.5.1 Mining and Refining 134
6.5.2 Gasification and Enrichment 135
6.5.3 Spent Fuel Reprocessing and Temporary
Waste Storage 136
6.5.4 Permanent Waste Disposal 137
6.6 Fusion 138
6.6.1 Magnetic Confinement 139
6.6.2 Laser Fusion 139
6.7 Summary 140
Problems 141
Bibliography 142
7 Renewable Energy 143
7.1 Introduction 143
7.2 Hydropower 145
7.2.1 Environmental Effects 148
7.3 Biomass 148
7.3.1 Environmental Effects 151
7.4 Geothermal Energy 152
7.4.1 Environmental Effects 154
 Contents ◆ xi

7.5 Solar Energy 155

7.5.1 The Flat Plate Collector 159
7.5.2 Focusing Collectors 161
7.5.3 Photovoltaic Cells 164
7.6 Wind Power 166
7.6.1 Environmental Effects 172
7.7 Tidal Power 172
7.7.1 Environmental Effects 176
7.8 Ocean Wave Power 176
7.9 Ocean Thermal Power 180
7.10 Capital Cost of Renewable Electric Power 181
7.11 Conclusion 183
Problems 183
Bibliography 186
8 Transportation 188
8.1 Introduction 188
8.2 Internal Combustion Engines for Highway Vehicles 191
8.2.1 Combustion in SI and CI Engines 193
8.3 Engine Power and Performance 195
8.3.1 Engine Efficiency 197
8.4 Vehicle Power and Performance 199
8.4.1 Connecting the Engine to the Wheels 201
8.5 Vehicle Fuel Efficiency 203
8.5.1 U.S. Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Regulations and
Test Cycles 203
8.5.2 Improving Vehicle Fuel Economy 205
8.5.2.1 Improving Vehicle Performance 205
8.5.2.2 Improving Engine Performance 207
8.6 Electric Drive Vehicles 208
8.6.1 Vehicles Powered by Storage Batteries 208
8.6.2 Hybrid Vehicles 210
8.6.3 Fuel Cell Vehicles 211
8.7 Vehicle Emissions 214
8.7.1 U.S. Vehicle Emission Standards 214
8.7.2 Reducing Vehicle Emissions 216
8.7.2.1 Reducing Engine-Out Emissions 218
8.7.2.2 Catalytic Converters for Exhaust Gas Treatment 218
8.7.2.3 Evaporative Emissions 220
xii ◆ CONTENTS

8.7.2.4 Reducing CI Engine Emissions 221

8.7.2.5 Fuel Quality and Its Regulation 221
8.8 Conclusion 222
Problems 223
Bibliography 225
9 Environmental Effects of Fossil Fuel Use 226
9.1 Introduction 226
9.2 Air Pollution 227
9.2.1 U.S. Emission Standards 228
9.2.2 U.S. Ambient Standards 231
9.2.3 Health and Environmental Effects of
Fossil-Fuel-Related Air Pollutants 233
9.2.4 Air-Quality Modeling 234
9.2.4.1 Air Pollution Meteorology 235
9.2.4.2 Modeling of Steady-State Point Source 237
9.2.4.3 Plume Rise 239
9.2.4.4 Steady-State Line Source 240
9.2.4.5 Steady-State Area Source 241
9.2.5 Photo-oxidants 242
9.2.5.1 Photo-oxidant Modeling 244
9.2.6 Acid Deposition 247
9.2.6.1 Acid Deposition Modeling 251
9.2.6.2 Transfer Coefficients 253
9.2.6.3 Source Apportionment 255
9.2.7 Regional Haze and Visibility Impairment 256
9.3 Water Pollution 258
9.3.1 Acid Mine Drainage and Coal Washing 258
9.3.2 Solid Waste from Power Plants 259
9.3.3 Water Use and Thermal Pollution
from Power Plants 260
9.3.4 Atmospheric Deposition of Toxic Pollutants
onto Surface Waters 260
9.3.4.1 Toxic Metals 260
9.3.4.2 Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons 261
9.4 Land Pollution 262
9.5 Conclusion 262
Problems 263
Bibliography 266
 Contents ◆ xiii

10 Global Warming 267

10.1 Introduction 267
10.2 What Is the Greenhouse Effect? 269
10.2.1 Solar and Terrestrial Radiation 269
10.2.2 Sun–Earth–Space Radiative Equilibrium 270
10.2.3 Modeling Global Warming 272
10.2.4 Feedback Effects 274
10.2.4.1 Water Vapor Feedback 274
10.2.4.2 Cloud-Radiation Feedback 275
10.2.4.3 Aerosol Feedback 275
10.2.4.4 Ice–Albedo Feedback 275
10.2.4.5 Ocean Circulation Feedback 275
10.2.5 Results of Global Warming Modeling 276
10.2.6 Observed Trend of Global Warming 276
10.2.7 Other Effects of Global Warming 277
10.2.7.1 Sea Level Rise 277
10.2.7.2 Climate Changes 278
10.3 Greenhouse Gas Emissions 279
10.3.1 Carbon Dioxide Emissions and the
Carbon Cycle 279
10.3.2 Methane 281
10.3.3 Nitrous Oxide 281
10.3.4 Chlorofluorocarbons 282
10.3.5 Ozone 282
10.3.6 GHG Control 283
10.4 Controlling CO2 Emissions 283
10.4.1 End-Use Efficiency Improvements
and Conservation 283
10.4.2 Supply-Side Efficiency Improvements 284
10.4.3 CO2 Capture 285
10.4.3.1 Air Separation–CO2 Recycling 285
10.4.3.2 Solvent Absorption 286
10.4.3.3 Membrane Separation 287
10.4.4 CO2 Sequestration 288
10.4.4.1 Depleted Oil and Gas Reservoirs 288
10.4.4.2 Deep Ocean 289
10.4.4.3 Deep Aquifers 292
10.4.5 CO2 Utilization 292
10.4.6 Shift to Non-fossil Energy Sources 294
xiv ◆ CONTENTS

10.5 Conclusion 294

Problems 296
Bibliography 297
11 Concluding Remarks 298
11.1 Energy Resources 298
11.2 Regulating the Environmental Effects of Energy Use 299
11.3 Global Warming 300

Appendix A Measuring Energy 302

Index 307
 LIST OF TABLES

2.1 Population, Energy Use, GDP, Energy Use per Capita, and Energy Use
per $ GDP in Several Countries, 1996 14
2.2 Carbon Emissions, Carbon Emissions per Capita, and per $ GDP in
Several Countries of the World, 1996 19
2.3 Composition and Characteristics of Coal, Percent by Weight 23
2.4 The World’s Proven Fossil Fuel Reserves, Rates of Consumption, and
Lifetimes 27

3.1 Thermodynamic Properties of Fuel Combustion at 25 ◦ C and One

Atmosphere Pressure 44
3.2 Fuel (Thermal) Efficiencies of Current Power Technologies 62
3.3 Thermal Efficiencies of Synthetic Fuel Production 64

4.1 Properties of Battery Systems 83

4.2 Properties of Energy Storage Systems 85

6.1 Some Isotopes in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle, with Half-Lives and Radiation 125
7.1 1997 U.S. Renewable Energy Production 144
7.2 Average Energy Flux in Renewable Energy Systems 145
7.3 Hydropower Development in the United States in 1980 146
7.4 Installed Electrical and Thermal Power of Geothermal Systems in 1993 152
7.5 Clear-Sky Irradiance at 40 ◦ N Latitude 158
7.6 Tidal Power Plant Characteristics 175
7.7 Capital Cost of Renewable Electric Power 182
8.1 1995 U.S. Transportation Vehicle Use 190
8.2 2000 Model Year Passenger Vehicle Characteristics (SI Engines) 198
8.3 2000 Model Year Electric Vehicle Characteristics 209
8.4 2000 Model Year Hybrid Electric Vehicle Characteristics 210
8.5 Characteristics of Prototype Fuel Cell Vehicles 213
8.6 U.S. Vehicle Exhaust Emission Standards 216

xv
xvi ◆ LIST OF TABLES

9.1 U.S. NSPS Emission Standards for Fossil Fuel Steam Generators with
Heat Input > 73 MW (250 MBtu/h) 229
9.2 U.S. Federal Vehicle Emission Standards 230
9.3 U.S. 2000 National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) 232
9.4 Effects of Criteria Air Pollutants on Human Health, Fauna and Flora,
and Structures and Materials 234
9.5 Pasquill–Gifford Stability Categories 236
9.6 Optimized Sulfate Deposition Model Parameters 253

A.1 SI Units 304

A.2 U.S. Commercial Units 305
A.3 Measured Quantities 306
A.4 SI Unit Prefixes 306
FOREWORD

In 1996, the MIT Department of Mechanical Engineering adopted a new undergraduate curricu-
lum to enhance the learning process of its students. In this new curriculum, key concepts of
engineering are taught in four integrated sequences: the thermodynamics/heat transfer/fluid me-
chanics sequence, the mechanics/materials sequence, the design/manufacturing sequence, and the
systems/dynamics/control sequence. In each one of the four sequences, the basic principles are
presented in the context of real engineering problems that require simultaneous use of all basic
principles to solve engineering tasks ranging from synthesis to analysis. Active learning, including
hands-on experience, is a key element of this new curriculum.
To support new instructional paradigms of the curriculum, the faculty began the development
of teaching materials such as books, software for web-based education, and laboratory experiments.
This effort at MIT is partially funded by the Neil and Jane Pappalardo fund, a generous endowment
created at MIT in support of this project by the Pappalardos. Mr. Neil Pappalardo, an alumnus of
MIT, is the founder and CEO of Medical Technology Information, Inc., and Mrs. Jane Pappalardo
is a graduate of Boston University, active in many civic functions of Massachusetts.
Oxford University Press and MIT have created the MIT-Pappalardo Series in Mechanical
Engineering to publish books authored by its faculty under the sponsorship of the Pappalardo
fund. All the textbooks written for the core sequences, as well as other professional books, will be
published under this series.
This volume, Energy and the Environment by James A. Fay and Dan S. Golomb, differs from
the others in that it is not itself a subject in the core curriculum. Instead, it is an upper-level
subject that draws upon the dynamics, fluid mechanics, thermodynamics, heat transfer, and related
sciences of the core curriculum. While exposing the student to a societal problem of great current
concern—namely, the use of energy and the local, regional, and global environmental effects that
use engenders—it utilizes core curriculum skills in describing and analyzing the modern technology
being used to ameliorate these adverse environmental effects. It enables the student to integrate
this understanding into an appreciation of both the technology and science that must be employed
by nations to maintain a livable environment while providing improved economic circumstances
for their populations.
Energy and the Environment provides many provocative examples of advancing a student’s
skills in engineering fundamentals. Calculating how much power is needed to propel an automobile,
how mechanical power can be extracted from the dynamical motion of the wind or ocean waves and
the pull of gravity on river flows and tidal motions, how fuel cells and batteries generate electric
power from chemical reactions, how power can be generated by the combustion of fossil fuels
in conventional power plants, and how gaseous atmospheric contaminants can change the earth’s

xvii
xviii ◆ FOREWORD

temperature requires integration of the understanding achieved in core studies. Equally important
is the quantitative understanding of the contamination of the atmosphere and surface waters by the
toxic byproducts of energy use, their effects upon human health and natural ecological systems,
and how these effects can be ameliorated by improvements in the technology of energy use.
We expect that the addition of this volume to the others of this series will expand the student’s
understanding of the role of mechanical engineering in modern societies.

Rohan C. Abeyaratne
Nam P. Suh
Editors
MIT-Pappalardo Series
PREFACE

The impetus for creating this book was provoked by one of us (DSG) as a consequence of lecturing on
the subject of energy and the environment for the past 10 years at the University of Massachusetts
Lowell to students in the Colleges of Engineering and Arts and Sciences. In all those years a
diligent search did not unearth a suitable textbook to match the syllabus of that course. To be
sure, numerous texts exist on the subjects of energy, energy systems, energy conversion, energy
resources, and fossil, nuclear, and renewable energy. Also, there are texts on air pollution and its
control, effluents and solid waste from energy mining and usage, the greenhouse effect, and so on.
However, we were unable to find a contemporary text that discusses on a deeper technical level the
relationship between energy usage and environmental degradation or that discusses the means and
ways that efficiency improvements, conservation, and shifts to less polluting energy sources could
lead to a healthier and safer environment.
Our book is intended for upper-level undergraduate and graduate students and for informed
readers who have had a solid dose of science and mathematics. While we do try to refresh the
student’s and reader’s memory on some fundamental aspects of physics, chemistry, engineer-
ing and geophysical sciences, we are not bashful about using some advanced concepts, the ap-
propriate mathematical language, and chemical equations. Each chapter is accompanied by a
set of numerical and conceptual problems designed to stimulate creative thinking and problem
solving.
Chapter 1 is a general introduction to the subject of energy, its use, and its environmental
effects. It is a preview of the subsequent chapters and sets the context of their development.
In Chapter 2 we survey the world’s energy reserves and resources. We review historic trends
of energy usage and estimates of future supply and demand. This is done globally, by continent and
country, by energy use sector, and by proportion to population and gross domestic product. The
inequalities of global energy supply and consumption are discussed.
Chapter 3 is a refresher of thermodynamics. It reviews the laws that govern the conversion of
energy from one form to another—that is, the first and second laws of thermodynamics and the
concepts of work, heat, internal energy, free energy, and entropy. Special attention is given to the
combustion of fossil fuels. Various ideal thermodynamic cycles that involve heat or combustion
engines are discussed—for example, the Carnot, Rankine, Brayton, and Otto cycles. Also, advanced
and combined cycles are described, as well as nonheat engines such as the fuel cell. The principles
of the production of synthetic fuels from fossil fuels are treated.
The generation and transmission of electrical power, as well as the storage of mechanical and
electrical energy, are covered in Chapter 4. Electrostatic, magnetic, and electrochemical storage of
electrical energy is treated, along with various mechanical energy storage systems.

xix
xx ◆ PREFACE

The generation of electricity in fossil-fueled power plants is thoroughly discussed in Chapter

5. The complete workings of a fossil-fueled power plant are described, including fuel storage
and preparation, burners, boilers, turbines, condensers, and generators. Special emphasis is placed
on emission control techniques, such as particulate matter control with electrostatic precipitators,
sulfur oxide control with scrubbers, and nitric oxide control with low-NOx burners and flue gas
denitrification. Alternative coal-fired power plants are discussed, such as fluidized bed combustion
and coal gasification combined cycle.
In Chapter 6 we describe electricity generation in nuclear-fueled power plants. Here we re-
view the fundamentals of nuclear energy: atoms, isotopes, the nucleus and electrons, protons and
neutrons, radioactivity, nuclear stability, fission, and fusion. The nuclear fuel cycle is described,
including mining, purification, enrichment, fuel rod preparation, and spent fuel (radioactive waste)
disposal. The workings of nuclear reactors are discussed, including control rods, moderators, and
neutron economy, as well as the different reactor types: boiling water, pressurized water, and breeder
reactors.
The principles of renewable energy utilization are explained in Chapter 7. This includes hy-
dropower, biomass, geothermal, solar thermal and photovoltaic, wind, tidal, ocean wave, and
ocean thermal power production. Attention is given to the capacity factor and capital cost of these
systems.
Chapter 8 is devoted principally to the automobile, because road vehicles consume roughly
one-third of all primary energy and also because the transportation of people and goods is so
dependent upon them. The characteristics of the internal combustion engine are described, for both
gasoline and diesel engines. The importance of vehicle characteristics for vehicle fuel efficiency
is stressed. Electric drive vehicles are described, including battery-powered and hybrid vehicles.
Vehicle emissions are explained, and the technology for reducing them is described.
A survey of the environmental effects of fossil fuel usage begins in Chapter 9. In this chapter
we discuss urban and regional air pollution, the transport and dispersion of particulate matter, sulfur
oxides, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, and other toxic pollutants from fossil fuel combustion,
and the effects of these pollutants on human health, biota, materials, and aesthetics. The phenomena
of photochemical smog, acid deposition and regional haze are also described. Also treated are the
impacts of energy usage on water and land.
Chapter 10 continues the survey of environmental effects of fossil fuel combustion with particu-
lar reference to global climate change resulting from anthropogenic enhancement of the greenhouse
effect. Here we discuss the carbon dioxide emission trends and forecast, the global carbon cycle,
and the uptake of CO2 by the oceans and biota. The physics of the greenhouse effect is described in
some detail, as well as the predicted consequences to the planet and its inhabitants if CO2 emissions
continue unabated.
We conclude with Chapter 11, a reemphasis of the important relationships among the science,
technology, and economics of energy usage and its environmental effects. We note the limited
success of regulation of urban and regional air pollution in industrialized nations, and we also note
the great challenge that lies ahead in dealing with global climate change.
Finally, we include Appendix A, an explanation of the scientific and engineering units that are
commonly used in energy studies, easing the translation from one set to another.
 Preface ◆ xxi

The authors wish to express their appreciation to colleagues who aided in the review of the
manuscript: John Heywood, Wai K. Cheng, and Jason Mark. Of course, the authors bear complete
responsibility for the accuracy of this text. We also thank George Fisher for preparing many of the
tables and figures.
James A. Fay
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Dan S. Golomb
University of Massachusetts Lowell
This page intentionally left blank
 CHAPTER

Energy and the Environment 1

1.1 INTRODUCTION
Modern societies are characterized by a substantial consumption of fossil and nuclear fuels needed
to provide for the operation of the physical infrastructure upon which these societies depend: the
production of food and water, clothing, shelter, transportation, communication, and other essen-
tial human services. The amount of this energy use and its concentration in the urban areas of
industrialized nations has caused the environmental degradation of air-, water- and land-dependent
ecosystems on a local and regional scale, as well as adverse health effects in human populations.
Recent scientific studies have forecast potentially adverse global climate changes that would result
from the accumulation of gaseous emissions to the atmosphere, principally carbon dioxide from
energy related sources. This accumulation is aggravated by an expected expanding consumption
of energy both by industrialized nations and by developing nations seeking to improve the living
standards of their growing populations. The nations of the world, individually and collectively, are
undertaking to limit the damage to human health and natural ecosystems that attend these current
problems and to forestall the development of even more severe ones in the future. But because
the source of the problem, energy usage, is so intimately involved in nations’ and the world’s
economies, it will be difficult to ameliorate this environmental degradation without some adverse
effects on the social and economic circumstances of national populations.
To comprehend the magnitude of intensity of human use of energy in current nations, we might
compare it with the minimum energy needed to sustain an individual human life, that of the caloric
value of food needed for a healthy diet. In the United States, which is among the most intensive
users of energy, the average daily fossil fuel use per capita amounts to 56 times the necessary daily
food energy intake. On the other hand, in India, a developing nation, the energy used is only 3 times
the daily food calorie intake. U.S. nationals expend 20 times the energy used by Indian nationals,
and their per capita share of the national gross domestic product is 50 times greater. Evidently, the
economic well-being of populations is closely tied to their energy consumption.
When agricultural technology began to displace that of the hunter–gatherer societies about
10,000 years ago, activities other than acquiring food became possible. Eventually other sources
of mechanical energy—that of animals, wind, and water streams—were developed, augmenting
human labor and further enhancing both agricultural and nonagricultural pursuits. As world popula-
tion increased, the amount of crop and pasture land increased in proportion, permanently replacing
natural forest and grassland ecosystems by less diverse ones. Until the beginning of the industrial
revolution several centuries ago, this was the major environmental impact of human activities.
Today, we are approaching the limit of available land for agricultural purposes, and only more
intensive use of it can provide food for future increases of world population.

1
2 ◆ ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

The industrial revolution drastically changed the conditions of human societies by making
available large amounts of energy from coal (and later oil, gas, and nuclear fuel) far exceeding that
available from the biofuel, wood. Some of this energy was directed to increasing the productivity
of agriculture, freeing up a large segment of the population for other beneficial activities. Urban
populations grew rapidly as energy-using activities, such as manufacturing and commerce, concen-
trated themselves in urban areas. Urban population and population density increased, while those
of rural areas decreased.
By the middle of the twentieth century, nearly all major cities of the industrialized world
experienced health-threatening episodes of air pollution, and today this type of degradation has
spread to the urban areas of developing countries as a consequence of the growing industrialization
of their economies. Predominantly, urban air pollution is a consequence of the burning of fossil fuels
within and beyond the urban region itself. This pollution can extend in significant concentrations
to rural areas at some distance from the pollutant sources so that polluted regions of continental
dimensions even include locations where there is an absence of local energy use.
Despite the severity of urban pollution, it is technically possible to reduce it to harmless levels
by limiting the emission of those chemical species that cause the atmospheric degradation. The
principal pollutants comprise only a very small fraction of the materials processed and can be made
even smaller, albeit at some economic cost. In industrialized countries, the cost of abating urban
air pollution is but a minor slice of a nation’s economic pie.
While the industrialized nations grapple with urban and regional air pollution, with some
success, and developing nations lose ground to the intensifying levels of harmful urban air con-
tamination, the global atmosphere experiences an untempered increase in greenhouse gases, those
pollutants that are thought to cause the average surface air temperature to rise and climate to be
modified. Unlike the urban pollutants, most of which are precipitated from the atmosphere within
a few days of their emission, greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere for years, even cen-
turies. The most common greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, which is released when fossil fuels
are burned. As it is not possible to utilize the full energy of fossil fuels without forming carbon
dioxide, it will be very difficult to reduce the global emissions of carbon dioxide while still provid-
ing enough energy to the world’s nations for the improvement of their economies. While there is
technology available or being developed that would make possible substantial reductions in global
carbon dioxide emissions, the cost of implementation of such control programs will be much larger
than that for curbing urban air pollution.

1.1.1 An Overview of This Text

This book describes the technology and scientific understanding by which the world’s nations could
ameliorate the growing urban, regional, and global environmental problems associated with energy
use while still providing sufficient energy to meet the needs of populations for a humane existence.
It focuses on the technology and science, the base on which any effective environmental control
program must be built. It does not prescribe control programs, because they must include social,
economic, and political factors that lie outside the scope of this book. We do not delve deeply into
the science and technology, but do provide an adequate description of the fundamental principles
and their consequences to the topic at hand. We present a bibliography in each chapter for the use
of the reader who wants to pursue some aspects at greater depth.
The major sources of energy for modern nations are fossil fuels, nuclear fuels, and hydropower.
Non-hydro renewable energy sources, such as biomass, wind, geothermal, solar thermal, and
 Introduction ◆ 3

photovoltaic power, account for only a small portion of current energy production. Like other
mineral deposits, fossil fuels are not distributed uniformly around the globe, but are found on
continents and their margins that were once locations of great biomass production. They need to be
discovered and removed, and often processed, before they can be available for energy production.
Current and expected deposits would appear to last for a few centuries at current consumption rates.
Within the time horizon of most national planning, there is no impending shortage of fossil fuel
despite the continual depletion of what is a finite resource. In contrast, renewable energy sources are
not depletable, being supplied ultimately by the flux of solar insolation that impinges on the earth.
Like food, energy needs to be stored and transported from the time and place where it becomes
available to that where it is to be used. Fossil and nuclear fuels, which store their energy in chemical
or nuclear form indefinitely, are overwhelmingly the preferred form for storing and transporting
energy. Electrical energy is easily transmitted from source to user, but there is no electrical storage
capability in this system. Hydropower systems store energy for periods of days to years in their
reservoirs. For most renewable energy sources, there is no inherent storage capability so they
must be integrated into the electrical network. Many forms of mechanical and electrical energy
storage are being developed to provide for special applications where storage in chemical form is
not suitable. Efficient transformation of energy from mechanical to electrical form is an essential
factor of modern energy systems.
Although fossil fuels may be readily burned to provide heat for space heating, cooking, or in-
dustrial and commercial use, producing mechanical or electrical power from burning fuels required
the invention of power producing machines, beginning with the steam engine and subsequently
expanding to the gasoline engine, diesel engine, gas turbine, and fuel cell. The science of thermo-
dynamics prescribes the physicochemical rules that govern how much of a fuel’s energy can be
transformed to mechanical power. While perfect machines can convert much of the fuel’s energy
to work, practical and economic ones only return between a quarter and a half of the fuel energy.
Nevertheless, the technology is rich and capable of being improved through further research and de-
velopment, but large increases in fuel efficiency are not likely to be reached without a considerable
cost penalty.
Initially, steam engines were used to pump water from mines, to power knitting mills, and
to propel trains and ships. Starting in the late nineteenth century, electrical power produced by
steam engines became the preferred method for distributing machine power to distant end-users.
By the time electricity distribution had become universal (supplying mechanical power, light, and
communication signals), the generation of electrical power in steam power plants had become the
largest segment of energy use. Currently, 55% of world fossil fuel is consumed in electric power
plants.
The modern fossil-fueled steam power plant is quite complex (see Figure 1.1). Its principal
components—the boiler, the turbine, and the condenser—are designed to achieve maximum thermal
efficiency. But the combustion of the fuel produces gaseous and solid pollutants, among which are
the following: oxides of carbon, sulfur, and nitrogen; soot; toxic metal vapors; and ash. Removing
these pollutants from the flue gases requires complex machinery, such as scrubbers and electrostatic
precipitators, that increases the operating and capital cost of the power plant and consumes a small
percentage of its electrical output. The removed material must be disposed safely in a landfill. But
because of the size and technical sophistication of these plants, they provide a more certain avenue
of improvement in control than would many thousands of small power plants of equal total power.
Nuclear power plants utilize a steam cycle to produce mechanical power, but steam for the
turbine is generated by heat transfer from a hot fluid that passes through the nuclear reactor, or by
4 ◆ ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Figure 1.1 A large coal-fired steam–electric power plant whose electrical power output is nearly 3000
megawatts. In the center is the power house and tall stacks that disperse the flue gas. To the left, a cooling
tower provides cool water for condensing the steam from the turbines. To the right, high-voltage
transmission lines send the electric power to consumers. (By permission of Brian Hayes.)

direct contact with the reactor fuel elements. The main disadvantage of a nuclear power plant, which
does not release any ordinary pollutants to the air, is the difficulty of assuring that the immense
radioactivity of its fuel is never allowed to escape by accident. Nuclear power plant technology is
technically quite complex and expensive. The environmental problems associated with preparing
the nuclear fuel and sequestering the spent fuel have become very difficult and expensive to manage.
In the United States, all of these problems make new nuclear power plants more expensive than
new fossil fuel power plants.
Renewable energy sources are of several kinds. Wind turbines and ocean wave energy systems
convert the energy of the wind and ocean waves that stream past the power plant to electrical power.
Hydropower and ocean tidal power plants convert the gravitational energy of dammed up water to
electrical power (see Figure 1.2). Geothermal and ocean thermal power plants make use of a stream
of hot or cold fluid to generate electric power in a steam power plant. A solar thermal power plant
absorbs sunlight to heat steam in a power cycle. Photovoltaic systems create electricity by direct
absorption of solar radiation on a semiconductor surface. Biomass-fueled power plants directly
burn biomass in a steam boiler or utilize a synthetic fuel made from biomass. Most of these energy
systems experience low-energy flux intensity, so that large structures are required per unit of power
 Introduction ◆ 5

Figure 1.2 A run-of-the-river hydropower plant on the Androscoggin River in Brunswick, Maine (United
States). In the center is the power house, on the right is the dam/spillway, and on the left is a fish ladder to
allow anadromous species to move upriver around the dam. Except when occasional springtime excessive
flows are diverted to the spillway, the entire river flow passes through the power house.

output, compared to fossil-fueled plants. On the other hand, they emit no or few pollutants, while
contributing no net carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere. Their capital cost per unit of power
output is higher than that of fossil plants, so that renewable plants may not become economical
until fossil fuel prices rise.
Transportation energy is a major sector of the energy market in both industrialized and devel-
oping nations. Automobiles are a major consumer of transportation energy and emitter of urban air
pollutants. The technology of automobiles has advanced considerably in the last several decades
under regulation by governments to reduce pollutant emissions and improve energy efficiency. Cur-
rent automobiles emit much smaller amounts of pollutants than their uncontrolled predecessors as
a consequence of complex control systems. Considerable gains in energy efficiency seem possible
by introduction of lightweight body designs and electric drive systems powered by electric storage
systems or onboard engine-driven electric generators, or combinations of these.
Air pollutants emitted into the urban atmosphere by fossil fuel users and other sources can
reach levels harmful to public health. Some of these pollutants can react in the atmosphere by
absorbing sunlight so as to form even more harmful toxic products. This soup of direct and indirect
pollutants is termed smog. One component of smog is the toxic oxidant ozone, which is not directly
emitted by any source. Because of the chemical complexity of these photochemical atmospheric
reactions, great effort is required to limit all the precursors of photochemical smog if it is to be
reduced to low levels.
Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases warm the lower atmosphere by impeding the
radiative transfer of heat from the earth to outer space. Limiting the growth rate of atmospheric
carbon dioxide requires either (a) reducing the amount of fossil fuel burned or (b) sequestering
the carbon dioxide below the earth’s or ocean’s surface. To maintain or increase the availability
of energy while fossil fuel consumption is lowered, renewable or nuclear energy must be used. Of
course, improving the use efficiency of energy can result in the lowering of fossil fuel use while
6 ◆ ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

not reducing the social utility of energy availability. By combination of all these methods, the rate
of rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide can be ameliorated at an economic and social cost that may
be acceptable.
The amelioration of environmental degradation caused by energy use is a responsibility of
national governments. By regulation and by providing economic incentives, governments induce
energy users to reduce pollutant emissions by changes in technology or use practices. Bilateral
or global treaties can bring about coordinated multinational actions to reduce regional or global
environmental problems, such as acid deposition, ozone destruction, and climate change. The role
of technology is to provide the necessary reduction in emissions while still making available energy
at the minimum increase in cost needed to attain that end.

1.2 ENERGY

There is a minimum amount of energy needed to sustain human life. The energy value of food is the
major component, but fuel energy is needed for cooking and, in some climates, for heating human
shelter. In an agricultural society, additional energy is expended in growing, reaping, and storing
food, making clothing, and constructing shelters. In modern industrial societies, much more energy
than this minimum is consumed in providing food, clothing, shelter, transportation, communication,
lighting, materials, and numerous services for the entire population.
It is a basic principle of physics that energy cannot be destroyed, but can be transformed from
one form to another. When a fuel is burned in air, the chemical energy released by the rearrangement
of fuel and oxygen atoms to form combustion products is transformed to the random energy of
the hot combustion product molecules. When food is digested in the human digestive tract, some
of the food energy is converted to energy of nutrient molecules and some warms the body. When
human societies “consume” energy, they transform it from one useful form to a less useful form,
in the process providing a good or service that is needed to maintain human life and societies.
A quantitative measure of the ongoing good that energy “consumption” provides to society is
the time rate of transformation of the useful energy content of energy-rich materials, such as fossil
and nuclear fuels. In 1995, this worldwide consumption rate amounted to 12.1 terawatts (TW)1,
or about 2 kilowatts (kW) per capita.2 Of this world total, the United States consumed 2.9 TW, or
about 13 kW per capita, which is the largest of any nation. However unevenly distributed among
the world’s population, the world energy consumption rate far exceeds the minimum required to
sustain human life.
The capacity to consume energy at this rate is a consequence of the technology developed in
industrialized nations to permit the efficient extraction and utilization of these fuels by only a small
fraction of the population.3 But the earth’s fossil and nuclear fuel resources are being depleted at
a rate that will render them very scarce in future centuries, even if they are used more efficiently
than in the past. The current cost of these fuels, however, has remained low for decades as recovery
technology has improved enough to offset the distant threat of scarcity.

1One terawatt = 1E(12) watts. See Appendix A for a specification of scientific notation for physical units.
2This rate is 16 times the per capita food energy consumption of 120 W.
3This situation is analogous to the industrialization of agriculture in advanced economies, whereby a few
percent of the population provides food for all.
 Energy ◆ 7

There are other, less energy-rich sources of energy which are not depletable. These are the
so-called renewable energies, such as those of solar insolation, wind, flowing river currents, tidal
flows, and biomass fuels. In fact, these are the energies that were developed on a small scale in
preindustrial societies, providing for ocean transportation, cooking, sawing of lumber, and milling
of grain. Industrial age technologies have made it possible to develop these sources today on a much
larger scale, yet in aggregate they constitute less than 8% of current world energy consumption.
Renewable energy is currently more costly than fossil energy, but not greatly so, and may yet become
more economical when pollution abatement costs of fossil and nuclear energy are factored in.
How is energy used? It is customary to divide energy usage among four sectors of economic
activity: industrial (manufacturing, material production, agriculture, resource recovery), transporta-
tion (cars, trucks, trains, airplanes, pipelines and ships), commercial (services), and residential
(homes). In the United States in 1996, these categories consumed, respectively, 36%, 27%, 16%,
and 21% of the total energy. Considered all together, energy is consumed in a myriad of individual
ways, each of which is an important contributor to the functioning of these sectors of the national
economy.
One prominent use of energy, principally within the industrial and commercial sectors, is
the generation of electric power. This use of energy now constitutes 36% of the total energy use
worldwide, but 44% in the United States. Combined with the transportation sector, these two
uses comprise 70% of the total U.S. energy use. For this reason, electric power production and
transportation form the core energy uses discussed in this text.
How is energy supplied? Except for renewable energy sources (including hydropower), the
main sources of energy are fossil and nuclear fuels, which are depletable minerals that must
be extracted from the earth, refined as necessary, and transported to the end-user in amounts
needed for the particular uses. Given the structure of modern industrialized economies, supplying
energy is a year-round activity in which the energy is consumed within months of being extracted
from its source.4 While there are reserves of fossil and nuclear fuels that will last decades to
centuries at current consumption rates, these are not extracted until they are needed for current
consumption.5 Because fossil and nuclear fuel reserves are not uniformly distributed within or
among the continents, some nations are fuel poor and others fuel rich. The quantities of fuel traded
among nations is a significant fraction of overall energy production.

1.2.1 Electric Power

One hallmark of industrialization in the twentieth century has been the growth of the electric power
sector, which today consumes about 36% of the world’s energy in the production of an annual
average of 1.4 TW of electric power. In the United States, 44% of total energy is used to generate
an annual average of 0.4 TW of electrical power. Nearly all of this electric power is produced in
large utility plants, each generating in the range of 100 to 1000 megawatts (MW). Fossil and nuclear
fuels supply 63% and 17%, respectively, of the total electric power, the remainder being generated

4The United States has established a crude oil reserve for emergency use, to replace a sudden cutoff of foreign
oil supplies. The reserve contains only several months’ supply of imported oil.
5In contrast, food crops are produced mostly on an annual basis, requiring storage of food available for
marketing for the better part of a year.
8 ◆ ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

in renewable energy plants, of which hydropower (19%) is the overwhelming contributor.6 The
generation and distribution of electric power to numerous industrial, commercial, and residential
consumers is considered today to be a requirement for both advanced and developing economies.
The electric energy produced in power plants is very quickly transmitted to the customer, where
it is instantaneously consumed for a multitude of purposes: providing light, generating mechanical
power in electric motors, heating space and materials, powering communication equipment, and
so on. There is practically no accumulation of energy in this system, in contrast with the storage of
fuels (or water in hydrosystems) at power plants, so that electric energy is produced and consumed
nearly simultaneously.7 Electric power plants must be operated so as to maintain the flow of electric
power in response to the instantaneous aggregate demand of consumers. This is accomplished by
networking together the electric power produced by many plants so that a sudden interruption in
the output of one plant can be replaced by the others.

1.2.2 Transportation Energy

Transportation of goods and people among homes, factories, offices, and stores is a staple ingredient
of industrialized economies. Ground, air, and marine vehicles powered by fossil-fueled combustion
engines are the principal means for providing this transportation function.8 Transportation systems
require both vehicle and infrastructure: car, truck, and highway; train and railway; airplane and
airport; ship and marine terminal. Ownership, financing, and construction of the infrastructure is
often distinct from that of the vehicle, with public ownership of the infrastructure and private
ownership of the vehicle being most common.
In economic terms, the largest transportation sector is that of highways and highway vehicles.
Worldwide, highway vehicles now number about 600 million, 200 million of them in the United
States. In the United States, 96% of the road vehicles are passenger automobiles and light-duty
trucks. The world and U.S. vehicle populations are growing at annual rates of 2.2% and 1.7%,
respectively. On average, U.S. vehicles are replaced every 13 years or so, providing an opportunity
to implement relatively quickly improvements in vehicle technology.9
Transportation fuels are nearly all petroleum-derived. In the United States, transportation
consumes 70% of the petroleum supply, or 32% of all fossil fuel energy. Highway vehicles account
for 46% of petroleum consumption, or 21% of all fossil fuel energy. Transportation systems are
especially vulnerable to interruptions in the supply of imported oil, which now exceeds the supply
from domestic production. Unlike some stationary users of oil, transportation vehicles cannot
substitute coal or gas for oil in times of scarcity.
While substantial reduction in highway vehicle air pollutant emissions has been achieved in the
United States since 1970, and more reductions are scheduled for the first decade of the twenty-first
century, the focus of vehicle technology has shifted to improving vehicle fuel economy. Doubling
current fuel efficiencies without penalizing vehicle performance is technically possible, at a vehicle

6When comparing the amount of hydropower energy with that of fossil and nuclear, the former is evaluated
on the basis of fuel energy needed to generate the hydroelectric power output of these plants.
7In some renewable energy electric power systems, such as wind and photovoltaic power systems, there is

usually no energy storage; these systems can comprise only a part of a reliable electric energy system.
8In developing countries, human-powered bicycles may be important components of ground transportation.
9In contrast, fossil and nuclear power plants have a useful life of 40 years or more.
 Energy ◆ 9

manufacturing cost penalty that will be offset in part by fuel cost savings. Automobiles promise to
be one of the more cost-effective ways for reducing oil consumption and carbon emissions.

1.2.3 Energy as a Commodity

Because of the ubiquitous need for energy, combined with the ability to store and utilize it in
many forms, energy is marketed as a commodity and traded internationally at more or less well
established prices. For example, in recent years the world crude oil price has ranged from about
15–35 $/barrel, or about 2–5 $/GJ.10 Coal is generally cheaper than oil, whereas natural gas is more
expensive. The difference in price reflects the different costs of recovery, storage, and transport.
Nuclear fuel refined for use in nuclear electric power plants is less expensive than fossil fuels, per
unit of heating value.
Coal is the cheapest fuel to extract, especially when mined near the earth’s surface. It is also
inexpensive to store and transport, both within and between continents. But it is difficult to use
efficiently and cleanly, and in the United States it is used mainly as an electric utility fuel. Oil
is more expensive than coal to recover, being more dispersed within geologic structures, but is
more easily transported by pipeline and intercontinentally by supertanker. It is almost exclusively
the fuel of transportation vehicles, and it is also the fuel of choice for industrial, commercial, and
residential use in place of coal. Like oil, natural gas is recovered from wells, but is not easily stored
or shipped across oceans. It commands the highest price because of the greater cost of recovery, but
is widely used in industry, commerce, and residences because of its ease, efficiency, and cleanliness
of combustion.
In contrast with fossil and nuclear fuels, renewable energy is not transportable (except in
the form of electric power) or storable (except in hydropower and biomass systems). Renewable
hydropower electricity is a significant part of the world electric power supply and is sold as a
commodity intra- and internationally.
Synthetic fuels, such as hydrogen, ethanol, and producer gas, are manufactured from other
fossil fuels. By transforming the molecular structure of a natural fossil fuel to a synthetic form
while preserving most of the heating value, the secondary fuel may be stored or utilized more
easily, or provide superior combustion characteristics, but is inevitably more expensive than its
parent fuel.11
On the time scale of centuries, the supplies of fossil and nuclear fuels will be severely depleted,
leaving only deposits that are difficult and expensive to extract. The only sources that could supply
energy indefinitely beyond that time horizon are nuclear fusion and renewable energy. These are
both capital-intensive technologies. Their energy costs will inevitably be competitive with fossil
and fission fuels when the latter become scarce enough.12

10A barrel of crude oil contains about 6 GJ (6 MBtu) of fuel heating value.
11Plutonium-239, a fissionable nuclear fuel, is formed from uranium-238, a nonfissionable natural mineral, in
nuclear reactors. In this sense it is a synthetic nuclear fuel, which can produce more energy than is consumed
in its formation, unlike fossil fuel-based synthetic fuels.
12If fusion power plants will be no more expensive than current fission plants, at about 0.3–1 dollar per thermal

watt of heat input, then the capital cost of supplying the current U.S. energy consumption of about 3 TW
would be 1–3 trillion dollars (T$). The cost of this energy would be several times current costs.
10 ◆ ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

1.3 THE ENVIRONMENT

The twentieth century, during which industrialization proceeded even faster than population growth,
marked the beginning of an understanding, both popular and scientific, that human activity was
having deleterious effects upon the natural world, including human health and welfare. These
effects included increasing pollution of air, water, and land by the byproducts of industrial activity,
permanent loss of natural species of plants and animals by changes in land and water usage and
human predation, and, more recently, growing indications that the global climate was changing
because of the anthropogenic emissions of so-called greenhouse gases.
At first, attention was focused on recurring episodes of high levels of air pollution in areas
surrounding industrial facilities, such as coal burning power plants, steel mills, and mineral refiner-
ies. These pollution episodes were accompanied by acute human sickness and the exacerbation
of chronic illnesses. After mid-century, when industrialized nations’ economies recovered rapidly
from World War II and expanded greatly above their prewar levels, many urban regions without
heavy industrial facilities began to experience persistent, chronic, and harmful levels of photo-
chemical smog, a secondary pollutant created in the atmosphere from invisible volatile organic
compounds and nitrogen oxides produced by burning fuels and the widespread use of manufac-
tured organic materials. Concurrently, the overloading of rivers, lakes, and estuaries with industrial
and municipal wastes threatened both human health and the ecological integrity of these natural
systems. The careless disposal on land of mining, industrial, and municipal solid wastes despoiled
the purity of surface and subsurface water supplies.
As the level of environmental damage grew in proportion to the rate of emission of air and
water pollutants, which themselves reflected the increasing level of industrial activity, national
governments undertook to limit the rate of these emissions by requiring technological improvements
to pollutant sources. As a consequence, by the century’s end ambient air and water pollution levels
were decreasing gradually in the most advanced industrialized nations, even though energy and
material consumption was increasing. Nevertheless, troubling evidence of the cumulative effects
of industrial waste disposal became evident, such as acidification of forest soils, contamination of
marine sediments with municipal waste sludge, and poisoning of aquifers with drainage from toxic
waste dumps. Not the least of the impending cumulative waste problems is the disposal of used
nuclear power plant fuel and its reprocessing wastes.
Environmental degradation is not confined to urban regions. In preindustrial times, large areas
of forest and grassland ecosystems were replaced by much less diverse crop land. Subsequently,
industrialized agriculture has expanded the predominance of monocultured crops and intensified
production by copious applications of pesticides, herbicides, and inorganic fertilizers. Valuable
topsoil has eroded at rates above replacement levels. Forests managed for pulp and lumber pro-
duction are less diverse than their natural predecessors, the tree crop being optimized by use of
herbicides and pesticides. In the United States, factory production of poultry and pork have created
severe local animal waste control problems.
The most threatened, and most diverse, natural ecosystems on earth are the tropical rain
forests. Tropical forest destruction for agricultural or silvicultural uses destroys ecosystems of great
complexity and diversity, extinguishing irreversibly an evolutionary natural treasure. It also adds
to the burden of atmospheric carbon dioxide in excess of what can be recovered by reforestation.
The most sobering environmental changes are global ones. The recent appearance of strato-
spheric ozone depletion in polar regions, which could increase harmful ultraviolet radiation at
the earth’s surface in mid-latitudes should it increase in intensity, was clearly shown by scientific
 The Environment ◆ 11

research to be a consequence of the industrial production of chlorofluorocarbons. (By international

treaty, these chemicals are being replaced by less harmful ones, and the stratospheric ozone destruc-
tion will eventually be reduced.) But the more ominous global pollutants are infrared-absorbing
molecules, principally carbon dioxide but including nitrous oxide and methane, that are inexorably
accumulating in the atmosphere and promising to disturb the earth’s thermal radiation equilibrium
with the sun and outer space. It is currently believed by most scientists that this disequilibrium
will cause the average atmospheric surface temperature to rise, with probable adverse climatic
consequences. Because carbon dioxide is formed ineluctibly in the combustion of fossil fuels that
produce much of current and expected future energy use, and is known to accumulate in the atmo-
sphere for centuries, its continued emission into the atmosphere presents a problem that cannot be
managed except on a global scale. It is a problem whose control would greatly affect the future
course of energy use for centuries to come.

1.3.1 Managing Industrial Pollution

To address the problem of a deteriorating environment, industrialized nations have undertaken
to regulate the emission of pollutants into the natural environment, whether it be air, water, or
land. The concept that underlies government control is that the concentration of pollutants in the
environment must be kept below a level that will assure no harmful effects in humans or ecological
systems. This can be achieved by limiting the mass rate of pollutant emissions from a particular
source so that, when mixed with surrounding clean air or water, the concentration is sufficiently
low to meet the criterion of harmlessness.13
In the case of multiple sources located near to each other, such as automobiles on a highway
or many factories crowded together in an urban area, the additive effects require greater reduction
per source than would be needed if only one isolated source existed. In industrialized countries
and regions, the cumulative effects of emissions into limited volumes of air or water result in
widespread contamination, with both local and distant sources contributing to local levels.
The ultimate example of cumulative effects is the gradual increase in the global annual average
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration caused by the worldwide emissions from burning of fossil
fuels and forests. Because the residence time of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is of the order
of a century, this rise in atmospheric concentration reflects the cumulative emissions over many
prior decades. Unlike urban or regional air pollutant emission reduction, reducing carbon dioxide
emissions will not reduce the ambient carbon dioxide level, only slow its inexorable rise.
The scientific and technological basis for national and international management of environ-
mental pollution is the cumulative understanding of the natural environment, the technology of
industrial processes that release harmful agents into the environment, and the deleterious effects
upon humans and ecological systems from exposure to them. By itself, this knowledge cannot
secure a solution to environmental degradation, but it is a requisite to fashioning governmental
programs for attaining that purpose.

13In regulatory procedures, it is usually not necessary to prove absolute harmlessness, but only the absence

of detectable harm.
 CHAPTER

Global Energy Use and Supply 2

2.1 INTRODUCTION

The industrial revolution has been characterized by very large increases in the amount of energy
available to human societies compared to their predecessors. In preindustrial economies, only very
limited amounts of nonhuman mechanical power were available, such as that of domesticated
animals, the use of wind power to propel boats and pump water, and the use of water power to grind
grain. Wood was the principal fuel to cook food, to heat dwellings, and to smelt and refine metals.
Today, in industrial nations, or in the urban-industrial areas of developing nations, the availability
of fossil and nuclear fuels has vastly increased the amount of energy that can be expended on
economic production and personal consumption, helping to make possible a standard of living
that greatly exceeds the subsistence level of preindustrial times. Furthermore, the population of
the world increased severalfold since the preindustrial era, thus requiring the recovery of ever-
increasing amounts of energy resources. However, these resources are not evenly distributed among
the countries of the world, and they are finite.
The principal sources of energy in present societies are fossil energy (coal, petroleum, and
natural gas), nuclear energy, and hydroenergy. Other energy sources, the so-called renewables,
are presently supplying a very small fraction of the total energy consumption of the world. The
renewables include solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, ocean-thermal, and ocean-mechanical energy.
In fact, hydroenergy may also be called a renewable energy source, although usually it is not
classified together with solar, wind, or biomass. Increased use of renewable energy sources is
desirable because they are deemed to cause less environmental damage, and their use would extend
the available resources of fossil and nuclear energy.
In this chapter we describe the supply and consumption patterns of energy in the world today,
along with the historical trends, with emphasis on available resources and their rate of depletion.
In recent years the effects of the global consumption of fossil fuels on the increase of atmospheric
concentration of CO2 has become an international concern. In examining the global energy use, it
is useful to include in our accounting the concomitant CO2 emissions to provide a perspective on
the problem of managing the potential threat of global climate change due to these emissions.

2.2 GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

The trend of world energy consumption from 1970 to 1997 and projections to 2020 is depicted in
Figure 2.1. The worldwide energy consumption in 1997 was 380 Quads.1 In 1997, the industrialized

11Quad (Q) = 1 quadrillion (1E(15)) British thermal units (Btu) = 1.005 E(18) joules (J) = 1.005 exajoules
(EJ) = 2.9307 E(11) kilowatt hours (kWh). See Tables A.1 and A.2.

12
 Global Energy Consumption ◆ 13

300
History Projections

250

200 Industrialized

Quadrillion Btu
150
Developing
100

50 EE/FSU

0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Figure 2.1 Trend of world’s energy consumption for 1970–1997 and a projection to 2020. (Data from U.S.
Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, 2000. International Energy Outlook 2000.)

countries, also called “developed” countries, consumed 54% of the world’s energy, the “less de-
veloped” countries consumed 31.5%, and the eastern European and former Soviet Union coun-
tries consumed 14.5%. It is interesting to note that in 2020, the projection is that the less devel-
oped countries will consume a greater percentage of the world’s energy than the industrialized
countries.
Table 2.1 lists the 1996 population, total energy use, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), energy
use per capita, and energy use per GDP of several developed and less developed countries. The
United States is the largest consumer of energy (88.2 Q), followed by China (35.7 Q) and India
(30.6 Q). The United States consumes 23.2% of the world’s energy with 4.6% of the world’s
population; western Europe consumes 16.7% of the world’s energy with 6.5% of the world’s
population. China consumes about 10% of the world’s energy with 21% of the world’s population,
whereas India consumes 3% of the energy with 16.3% of the population.
Among the listed countries, Canada, Norway, and the United States are the world’s highest
users of energy per capita: 395, 390, and 335 million Btu per capita per year, respectively. Russia
consumes 181 MBtu/cap y, Japan 171, United Kingdom 169, Germany 168, and France 162. The
less developed countries consume much less energy per capita. For example, Mexico consumes
59 MBtu/cap y, Brazil 43, China 29.4, Indonesia 54.1, and India 32.6. The world average consump-
tion is 63 MBtu/cap y.
If we compare the energy consumption per GDP, a different picture emerges. Among developed
countries, Canada uses 24.5 kBtu/$ GDP (reckoned in constant 1987 dollars), Norway 16.7, United
States 16.2, United Kingdom 12.5, Germany 9.1, France 9, Italy 8.4, and Japan 7.1. Canada, Norway,
and the United States use more energy per GDP than the other western European countries and
Japan, in part because of the colder climate, larger living spaces, longer driving distances, and
larger automobiles. On the other hand, Russia and the less developed countries (with the exception
of Brazil) spend a higher rate of energy per dollar GDP than do Canada, United States, Japan, and
the European countries: Russia (108.3 kBtu/$ GDP), Indonesia (81), China (67), and Mexico (36).
This is an indication that much of the population in these countries does not (yet) contribute
significantly to the GDP. Furthermore, their industrial facilities, power generation, and heating
14 ◆ GLOBAL ENERGY USE AND SUPPLY

TABLE 2.1 Population, Energy Use, GDP, Energy Use per Capita, and Energy Use per $ GDP in Several
Countries, 1996a
Population Energy Use GDP b Energy Use per Capita Energy Use per $ GDP
Country (million) (Quad) ($ billion) (MBtu/cap/y) (kBtu/$ GDP)
Developed
United States 263 88.2 5452 335 16.2
Canada 30 11.7 477 395 24.5
Russia 148 26.8 247 181 108.3
Japan 125 21.4 3007 171 7.1
Germany 82 13.7 1501 168 9.1
France 58 9.4 1402 162 9.0
Italy 58 7.4 884 127 8.4
United Kingdom 58 9.8 786 169 12.5
Norway 4 1.6 102 390 16.7
Less Developed
China 1212 35.7 533 29.4 67
India 936 30.6 379 32.6 24
Indonesia 194 10.5 129 54.1 81
Brazil 156 6.7 333 43 20
Mexico 95 5.6 155 59 36
World Total 5724 380 NAc 66.4 NA
a
Data from U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, 1997. International Energy Outlook 1997.
b
Gross Domestic Product in constant 1987 U.S. dollars.
c
NA, not applicable.

(or cooling) systems apparently are less efficient or in other ways more wasteful of energy than in
Canada, United States, western Europe, and Japan.

2.3 GLOBAL ENERGY SOURCES

The primary energy sources supplying the world’s energy consumption in 1997 were petroleum
(39%), coal (25%), natural gas (21.5%), nuclear-electric (6.3%), hydroelectric (7.5%), and
geothermal and other renewables (0.7%) (see Figure 2.2).2, 3 The trend of the growth of energy
sources from 1970 to 1997 and the prediction to 2020 is given in Figure 2.3. The projection for
the next two decades is that nuclear’s share will decline and the share of renewables will increase,

2Primary energy is energy produced from energy resources such as fossil or nuclear fuels, or renewable
energy. It is distinguished from secondary energy, such as electric power or synthetic fuel, which is derived
from primary energy sources.
3In converting nuclear and renewable (e.g., hydro) energy to primary energy in Quads, the U.S. Energy

Information Agency (EIA) uses the thermal energy that would be used in an equivalent steam power plant
with a thermal efficiency of about 31%.
 Global Energy Sources ◆ 15

Geothermal and
Hydroelectric 7.5 0.7
other sources
Nuclear-electric 6.3

39
21.5
Petroleum
Natural gas

25 Coal

Figure 2.2 Proportions (%) of world’s energy consumption supplied by primary energy sources, 1997.
(Source: Same as in Figure 2.1.)

250
History Projections

200

Oil
Quadrillion Btu

150 Natural gas

Coal
100

50 Renewables

Nuclear
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Figure 2.3 The trend of the growth of energy sources from 1970 to 1997 and the prediction to 2020.
(Source: Same as in Figure 2.1.)

presumably with increase of the use of solar, wind, and biomass energy. The consumption of all
fossil fuels will also increase in the next decades, with the rise of natural gas use exceeding that of
coal by the year 2020.
Taken as a linear growth rate over the 10 years 1987–1997, the worldwide energy consumption
was increasing at approximately 1.55% per year. Coal consumption grew by 0.8%/y on the av-
erage, natural gas 2.45%/y, petroleum 1.1%/y, nuclear-electric 2.2%/y, hydroelectric 2.1%/y, and
geothermal and other energy sources 13%/y. However, as mentioned above, the latter constitute
only a small fraction of the current energy consumption. In the United States, energy consumption
increased 1.7%/y on the average over the 10 years. China’s energy consumption grew 5.3%/y on
the average, whereas India’s energy use increased about 6.6%/y. Most of the growth is due to
increased fossil fuel consumption.
In 1996, the total energy consumption in the United States was close to 90 Q. The distri-
bution of the U.S. energy consumption by energy source is presented in Figure 2.4. Petroleum
contributed 39.7%, natural gas 25.1%, coal 22.8%, nuclear-electricity 8%, hydroelectricity 4%,
16 ◆ GLOBAL ENERGY USE AND SUPPLY

Geothermal and
Hydroelectric 4 0.4
other sources
Nuclear-electric 8

39.7
Petroleum
Coal 22.8

25.1
Natural gas

Figure 2.4 Proportions (%) of U.S. energy consumption supplied by primary energy sources, 1996. (Data
from U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, 1997. Monthly Energy Review, April 1997.)

and geothermal and other renewables 0.4%. These proportions are not greatly different from those
of the world as a whole. In 1996, about 50.5% of the U.S. petroleum and 12% of natural gas
consumption was supplied by foreign sources.

2.4 GLOBAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION

Electricity is a secondary form of energy, because primary energy (fossil, nuclear, hydropower,
geothermal, and other renewable sources of energy) is necessary to generate it. The trend of the
world’s electricity production from 1990 to 1997 and the prediction to 2020 is depicted in Figure 2.5.
In 1997, the world’s total electricity production was close to 12 trillion kilowatt hours. By 2020,
the production is predicted to increase to over 21 trillion kWh.
Of the 1997 electricity production, 63% was from fossil energy, 19% was from hydroenergy,
17% was from nuclear energy, and less than 1% was from geothermal and other renewable sources
(see Figure 2.6). Because the worldwide thermal efficiency of power plants is about 33.3%, in 1997
these plants consumed about 32.6% of the world’s primary energy and about 55.5% of the world’s
fossil energy. The majority of the latter (over 80%) was in the form of coal. In the United States,
Europe, Japan, and some other countries, in the past decades, natural gas became a preferred fuel
for electricity generation, and many new power plants were built that employ the method of Gas
Turbine Combined Cycle (GTCC), which is described in Section 5.3.1.
The reliance on energy sources for electricity production varies from country to country. For
example, in the 1996, U.S. electricity production amounted to 3079 billion kWh. Of this, coal
contributed 56.4%, nuclear power plants 21.9%, hydroelectric power plants 10.7%, natural gas
8.6%, petroleum 2.2%, and geothermal and other sources less than 0.3% (see Figure 2.7).
Hydropower is a significant contributor to electricity generation in many countries. For exam-
ple, in Norway practically all electricity is produced by hydropower, in Brazil 93.5%, New Zealand
74%, Austria 70%, and Switzerland 61%. China and India produce about 19% of their electricity
from hydropower. While hydroelectricity is a relatively clean source of energy and there is still a
potential for its greater use worldwide, most of the accessible and high “head” hydrostatic dams
are already in place. Building dams in remote, inhospitable areas will be expensive and hazardous.
Furthermore, there is a growing public opposition to damming up more rivers and streams for
 Global Electricity Consumption ◆ 17

12
History Projections

10
Industrialized

Trillion kilowatthours
8
Developing Asia and
Central and South America
6

4 Rest of world

0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Figure 2.5 Trend of world’s electricity consumption from 1990 to 1997 and the prediction to 2020. (Source:
Same as in Figure 2.1.)

Geothermal and
1
other sources
Nuclear energy 17

63 Fossil
Hydroelectricity 19

Figure 2.6 Proportions (%) of the the world’s electricity generation supplied by primary energy sources,
1997. (Data from U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, 1997. International Energy
Outlook 1997.)

Geothermal and
Petroleum 2.2 0.25
other sources
Natural gas 8.6

Hydroelectric
10.7
power plants

56.4 Coal
Nuclear
power 21.9
plants

Figure 2.7 Proportions (%) of primary energy sources supplying U.S. electricity generation, 1996. (Source:
Same as in Figure 2.4.)
18 ◆ GLOBAL ENERGY USE AND SUPPLY

environmental reasons and also because of the dislocation of population that is often involved in
creating upstream reservoirs.
Geothermal energy supplies a significant portion of electricity in the following countries: El
Salvador (28.5%), Nicaragua (18.5%), Costa Rica (10.3%), New Zealand (5.7%), Iceland (5.3%),
Mexico (3.8%), Brazil (2.6%), Indonesia (1.8%), and Italy (1.6%). Geothermal energy has a
great potential for supplying heat and electricity to many areas of the world. However, at present,
geothermal energy is only competitive with fossil energy where the geothermal sources are on, or
near, the surface of the earth.
In contrast to fossil-fueled power plants, nuclear power plants do not emit any CO2 into
the atmosphere, nor do they emit the other fossil-energy-related pollutants (SO2 , NOx , particulate
matter). However, the fear of nuclear accidents and the unresolved problem of nuclear waste disposal
has brought the construction of additional nuclear power plants to a halt in many countries. In the
United States, several nuclear power plants are presently being decommissioned even before their
normal retirement date. On the other hand, in some countries, new nuclear power plants are being
constructed, and nuclear energy does provide a significant portion of the total electricity production.
For example, in France 76% of the electricity is nuclear-electric, South Korea 36%, Germany 29%,
Taiwan 27%, and Japan 26%.

2.5 GLOBAL CARBON EMISSIONS

Table 2.2 lists the total carbon emissions, carbon emissions per capita and per GDP of several
countries in the world in 1996. (Emissions are reckoned in mass of carbon, not that of CO2 .) In
terms of absolute quantities, the United States and China are the largest emitters of carbon [1407 and
871 million metric tons per year (Mt/y), respectively], followed by Russia (496 Mt/y). In terms of per
capita emissions, the United States and Canada were the largest emitters, 5270 and 4040 kilogram
per capita per year, followed by Russia, 3340 kg/cap y. In countries where nonfossil energy is used
for electricity generation and other purposes, the per capita carbon emissions are lower. Thus, while
the energy consumption per capita in Germany and France are similar (168 and 162 MBtu/cap y,
respectively), the carbon emissions are quite different (2790 and 1600 kg/cap y, respectively). This
reflects the greater use of nuclear energy for electricity generation in France. Similarly, Switzerland
and New Zealand have lower carbon emissions per capita (1470 and 2100 kg/cap y, respectively)
than other industrial countries, because of their use of hydroenergy and geothermal energy. The
world average is 1100 kg/cap y. The United States emits about five times as much carbon per capita
as the world’s average.
In terms of carbon emissions per dollar GDP, an interesting picture emerges. The ratio in the
United States and Canada is 0.26 and 0.25 kg carbon per dollar GDP (reckoned in 1987 U.S.
dollars), respectively, whereas in Japan, Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, it ranges
from 0.1 to 0.2 kg/$. In part this stems from the higher consumption of energy per unit of GDP in the
United States and Canada, but also from the fact that the United States and Canada use more fossil
fuel per capita for space heating, space cooling, and transportation than do the European countries
and Japan. In Russia, the ratio of carbon emission per dollar GDP is 2.01, China 1.62, India 0.65,
Indonesia 0.62, and Mexico 0.63 kg/$. In these countries, fossil fuel is not used as efficiently in
the production of GDP. The exception is Brazil, where the ratio is 0.2 kg/$, probably on account of
Brazil’s greater use of hydroenergy and biomass energy. (Note that emissions from forest burning
are not included in these estimates.)
 End-Use Energy Consumption in the United States ◆ 19

TABLE 2.2 Carbon Emissions, Carbon Emissions per Capita, and per $ GDP in Several
Countries of the World, 1996.a
Carbon Emissions Carbon Emissions per Capita Carbon Emissions per $ GDP
Country (Mt C/y)b (kg/cap y) (kg/$ GDP)c
United States 1407 5270 0.26
Canada 119 4040 0.25
Russia 496 3340 2.01
Japan 307.5 2460 0.1
Germany 228 2790 0.15
France 93 1600 0.09
Italy 112 1960 0.13
United Kingdom 148 2530 0.19
Norway 20 4560 0.19
Switzerland 11 1470 0.06
New Zealand 7.5 2100 0.17
China 871 730 1.62
India 248 270 0.65
Indonesia 81 410 0.62
Brazil 68 430 0.2
Mexico 98 1070 0.63
World Total 6250 1090 NAd
a
Data from U.S. Department of Energy, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge.
b
Million metric tons of carbon per year
c
Gross Domestic Product in constant 1987 U.S. dollars.
d
NA, not applicable.

2.6 END-USE ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE

UNITED STATES
In order to gain some insight as to where lie the greatest potentials in energy savings, it is useful
to consider the consumption of energy in each end use sector. The major sectors are residential–
commercial, industrial, and transportation. We shall use the United States as an example. In other
countries the end-use pattern may differ somewhat, depending on the industrial output of the
country (heavy vs. light industry), climate (heating vs. air conditioning, or neither), and automobile
usage (personal vs. freight; distances traveled). In 1996, the U.S. total primary energy consumption
was close to 90 Q. Of this the industrial sector consumed 36.2%, residential–commercial 36.6%,
and transportation 27.2%. In 1973, the shares of the three sectors were: industry 43%, residential–
commercial 32%, and transportation 25%. This reflects the trend of (a) population growth and (b) a
shift from an industrial to a service oriented economy, and within the industrial sector, a shift from
heavy (“low-tech”) to light (“high tech”) industry. In the United States, over the years 1973–1996
the energy consumption per GDP also declined. In 1973, it was 19,000 Btu per constant 1992 dollar;
in 1996, 13,000 Btu per 1992 dollar. This shift reflects the increasing share of the service industry
to the total economy.
20 ◆ GLOBAL ENERGY USE AND SUPPLY

40
35
Industrial
30

Quadrillion Btu
25
Residential/Commercial
20
Transportation
15
10
5
0
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1996

Figure 2.8 Trend of U.S. energy consumption for industrial, residential–commercial, and transportation
sectors in 1973–1996. (Source: Same as in Figure 2.4.)

Electrochemical 3 2 Process cooling

Non-process 12

35
14 Boiler fuel
Machine
drive

Direct process 33

Figure 2.9 Proportions (%) of primary energy use in the U.S. industrial sector. (Data from U.S. Department
of Energy, Energy Information Agency, 1994. Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey, 1994.)

The trend of annual consumption of energy in the three sectors over the years 1973–1996
is shown in Figure 2.8. In those years the energy consumption for industrial production barely
increased, whereas the consumption for the residential–commercial and transportation sectors in-
creased significantly. Let us consider the pattern of energy consumption within each sector.

2.6.1 Industrial Sector

Of the total energy used by the industrial sector, about 35% is used for boiler fuel. The major part
of this boiler fuel is used for direct industrial processes, including electricity generation; a smaller
part is used for space heating. Direct process heat consumes 33%, machine drive 14%, nonprocess
uses 12%, electrochemical processes 3%, and process cooling and other uses 2% of the total energy
consumed by the industrial sector (see Figure 2.9). Even though the industrial sector has become
more energy efficient over the past years, there is still room for improvement. Industry could save
energy by process modification, better heat exchangers, more efficient drive mechanisms, and load-
matched, variable-speed motors. In some cases, cogeneration can save energy. In cogeneration, heat
(steam) and electricity required by the industrial process and the other energy needs for the facility
(e.g., space heating) are supplied from the same power plant. The fuel savings are especially
 End-Use Energy Consumption in the United States ◆ 21

pronounced when low-quality heat is adequate for the industrial process or space heating, such as
the heat rejected by the steam to a condenser after driving a turbine.

2.6.2 Residential Sector

Of the total energy used by the residential sector, about 40% is used for appliances and lighting
(mainly electricity), 34% for space heating (mainly fossil fuel as petroleum and natural gas),
16% for water heating (mainly electricity and natural gas), and 10% for air conditioning (mainly
electricity). This is depicted in Figure 2.10. Significant savings in space heating could be realized
by conservation (e.g., lowering the thermostat in winter and raising it in summer) and by better
insulation. Solar heating could be more widely utilized both for space and water heating. Appliances
can be made more energy efficient and smaller. Lighting could be converted from incandescent to
fluorescent bulbs.

2.6.3 Commercial Sector

Of the total energy used in the commercial sector, about 26% is used for lighting, 19% for
space heating, 9% for office equipment, 8.5% for water heat, 7.5% for air conditioning, 7% for
ventilation, 5% for refrigeration, 3.5% for cooking, and 14.5% for other uses (see Figure 2.11). As

Air conditioning 10

Water
16
heating 40
Appliances
and lighting

34
Space heating

Figure 2.10 Proportions (%) of primary energy use in the U.S. residential sector. (Data from U.S.
Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, 1990. Residential End Use Energy Consumption, 1990.)

Other 14.5

Cooking 3.5 26
Refrigeration 5 Lighting

Ventilation 7 19
Space
Air conditioning 7.5 heating

Water heating 8.5

9 Office equipment

Figure 2.11 Proportions (%) of primary energy use in the U.S. commercial sector. (Data from U.S.
Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, 1990. Energy Markets and End Use, 1990.)
22 ◆ GLOBAL ENERGY USE AND SUPPLY

Pipe 4 2 Rail

Water 7

Air 9
42
Personal
16 automobiles
Heavy
freight
20
Light trucks

Figure 2.12 Proportions (%) of primary energy use in the U.S. transportation sector. (Data from U.S.
Department of Transportation, 1993. Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 15.)

in the residential sector, this sector could also realize large energy savings, especially in lighting,
space heating, cooling, and ventilation.

2.6.4 Transportation Sector

Of the total energy used by the transportation sector, about 42% is used for personal automobile
transport, 20% for light trucks (often just used for personal transport), 16% for heavy freight,
9% for air, 7% for water, 4% for pipe, and 2% for rail transport (see Figure 2.12). Considering
that in the United States the transportation fuel is practically all derived from petroleum, that over
50% of petroleum is imported, that automobiles are responsible for about 50% of ground-level
air pollution, and that the transportation sector contributes about one-third of U.S. CO2 emissions,
the transportation sector could realize significant savings in energy consumption and reduction
in air pollutant and carbon emissions. This could be accomplished by (a) reducing the weight of
automobiles, (b) increased engine fuel efficiency, (c) using fuel cell and battery powered electric
drive cars, (d) using hybrid internal combustion engine-electric powered cars, and (e) increased
use of public transportation. Some of these alternatives are further discussed in Chapter 8.

2.7 GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLY

In this section we shall address only the supply of fossil energy—that is, coal, petroleum, natural gas,
and unconventional sources of fossil energy, such as oil shale, tar sand, geopressurized methane,
and coal seam methane.

2.7.1 Coal Reserves

Coal is found practically on every continent and subcontinent. It is found buried deeply in the
ground or under the seabed, or close to the surface. Coal characteristics vary widely according to
its biological origin (forests, low growing vegetation, swamps, animals) and geological history (age,
overburden, temperature, pressure). Thus, the chemical and physical characteristics of coal are also
highly variable, such as the content of moisture, minerals (ash), sulfur, nitrogen, and oxygen; heat
 Global Energy Supply ◆ 23

TABLE 2.3 Composition and Characteristics of Coal, Percent by Weighta

Pittsburgh Illinois North
Pennsylvania Seam No. 6 Montana Dakota
Anthracite Bituminous Bituminous Subbituminous Lignite
Moisture 4.5 2.0 13.2 10.5 33.7
Volatile matter 1.7 30.5 36.0 34.7 26.6
Fixed carbon 84.1 58.2 41.8 43.6 32.5
Sulfur 0.7 2.2 3.4 1.2 0.9
Ash 0.7 9.3 9.0 11.2 7.2
HHV, Btu/lb 12,750 13,620 11,080 10,550 7,070
a
Percentages may not add up to 100 % because of other elements present in coal.

value; hardness; porosity; and so on. Table 2.3 lists the characteristics and composition of several
U.S. coals. The variability from coal to coal is clearly evident. For example, the carbon content
varies from 62.9% for North Dakota lignite (a relatively young coal) to 93.9% for Pennsylvania
anthracite (a relatively old coal). The sulfur content varies from 0.7% to 3.4% by weight, and the
higher heating value (HHV) varies from 7070 Btu/lb (16,430 kJ/kg) for North Dakota lignite to
13,620 Btu/lb (31,650 kJ/kg) for Pittsburgh seam bituminous.4
Because of the widely varying characteristics of coals, it is difficult to estimate the precise
energy reserves residing in the world’s coal deposits. The world total coal reserves are estimated at
1.037E(12) metric tons.5 About one-half is bituminous and anthracite coal, whereas the other half is
subbituminous and lignite coal. Assuming that the average HHV of bituminous and anthracite coal is
12,500 Btu/lb (29,050 kJ/kg), and that of subbituminous and lignite is 8200 Btu/lb (19,055 kJ/kg),
the world’s coal reserves have a total heating value of about 24,000 Q. The 1995 world coal
consumption amounted to a little more than 93 Q/y. If the present consumption level were to
continue into the distant future, the world coal reserves would last about 250–300 years. However,
if coal consumption keeps increasing at a rate of 0.8%/y (see Section 2.3), the lifetime of the world’s
coal reserves would be only about 140 years.
The countries where the world’s major coal reserves are found are (in percent of the total)
United States (26), former Soviet Union countries (25), China (12), Australia (10), Germany (7),
South Africa (7), Poland (4), and other countries (9) (see Figure 2.13).
In addition to the above reserves, coal may be found in yet unproven reservoirs. Unproven
reservoirs are called resources.6 Some estimates place the coal resources at about 140,000 Q.7 The

4The higher heating value (HHV) includes the latent heat of condensation of the moisture content of the coal
and the water vapor formed in combustion, whereas the lower heating value (LHV) excludes it.
5Energy Information Agency, 1997. International Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0484(97).
6Reserves of a given fossil fuel are those quantities that geological and engineering information indicate

with reasonable certainty to be extractable under existing economic and operating conditions. Resources are
those quantities that from geological and engineering information may exist, but their extraction will require
different economic and operating conditions.
7Anonymous, 1978. World Energy Conference. Guildford: IPC Science and Technology Press.
24 ◆ GLOBAL ENERGY USE AND SUPPLY

Other 9
Poland 4
South Africa 7 26
United States
Germany 7
25
Former
Australia 10 Soviet Union

China 12

Figure 2.13 World’s coal reserves, percent. (Source: Same as in Figure 2.6.)

resources could supply the present consumption rate for about 1500 years. The resources are mainly
located in China, the former Soviet Union countries, the United States, and Australia. However,
the resources may be located at great depth under the ground or under the continental shelves. The
cost of exploiting these resources will certainly be much greater than that of the reserves.

2.7.2 Petroleum Reserves

The terms petroleum and mineral oil, or oil for short, are synonymous. The crude oil that is found
in various parts of the world differs in quality and composition, depending on the biological origin
and geological history. It is found in geological reservoirs under the ground or under the seabed at
depths up to several thousand meters.
A recent survey of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated the world’s oil reserves as
1.6 E(12) barrels.8, 9 The distribution of the oil reserves among the major oil reservoirs of the world
is as follows (in percent): Middle East (42), North America, including US, Canada and Mexico
(15), Russia, including Siberia (14), North and West Africa (7.2), South and Central America (6.1),
Asia and Pacific (5.5), Caspian Basin (3.5), Western Europe, including the North Sea (3.1), and
others (3.6) (see Figure 2.14).
Taking an average heating value of crude oil as 5.8 E(6) Btu/bbl, the world’s oil reserves amount
to 9280 Q. The world’s oil consumption in 1995 amounted to about 141 Q/y. If that consumption
rate were to continue into the future, the world’s oil reserves would last only for about 65–70 years.
If oil consumption keeps increasing at a rate of 1.1%/y, the lifetime of the world’s oil reserves
would be only about 50 years.
In a 1998 Science article, Kerr predicted that the peak production rate of crude oil will occur
sometime between 2005 and 2020.10 After that, the production rate will decline, which means that
the consumption rate must also decline. This also means that the world’s energy appetite must be
supplied by sources other than oil.

8U.S. Geological Survey, 1997. Ranking of the World’s Oil and Gas Reserves. USGS Report 97-463.
91 barrel (bbl) = 42 U.S. gallons = 159 liters. See Table A.2.
10Kerr, R.A., 1998. The Next Oil Crisis Looms Large—and Perhaps Close. Science 281, 1128–1131.
 Global Energy Supply ◆ 25

West Europe 3.1 3.6 Others

Caspian Basin 3.5

Asia and Pacific 5.5

South and
6.1
Central America 42
North and Middle East
7.2
West Africa
15
Russia 14 North
America

Figure 2.14 World’s oil reserves, percent. (Data from U.S. Geological Survey, 1997. Ranking of the World’s
Oil and Gas Provinces by Known Petroleum Volumes. Report 97-463.)

2.7.3 Unconventional Petroleum Resources

In addition to conventional oil reserves, vast amounts of hydrocarbon fluids are distributed in various
geological formations, such as oil shales and tar sands. Oil shale deposits are known to exist in
the United States in the Colorado Basin (Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming) and in the Appalachian
Basin (Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia). Tar sands are found in the Canadian Province
of Alberta, as well as in Venezuela and Colombia. In the United States alone, it is estimated that
deposits of oil shale contain perhaps close to 2000 Q of petroleum. With an estimated recovery
factor of 60%, the U.S. oil shales may contain up to 1200 Q. This is about 10 times as much as
the proven oil reserves in the United States. However, the exploitation of these unconventional
petroleum resources may require greater financial and technological investments than those for
the discovery and extraction of oil reserves. Furthermore, the extraction of petroleum from oil
shale may impact the environment to a greater degree than that of pumping oil from on- or off-
shore wells. On the average, oil shales contain between 60 and 120 liters of petroleum per ton of
shale rock. The rock must be excavated and heated in retorts to drive out the liquid petroleum. Thus,
a significant fraction of the derived petroleum must be burnt in order to heat the rock for further
extraction of petroleum. The process will require complex and expensive control technology for
the prevention of air emissions and liquid effluents. Also, the spent rock must be disposed of in an
environmentally safe and aesthetic manner. The environmental controls alone will add greatly to
the cost of extracting petroleum from the unconventional resources. After the OPEC oil embargoes
in the 1970s, a consortium of oil companies started to produce pilot scale quantities of petroleum
products from oil shale deposits in Colorado. However, after the prices of crude oil fell from a
high of $35 per barrel in 1981 to the teens in the late 1980s, all oil shale activities in the United
States ceased.

2.7.4 Natural Gas Reserves

The combustible part of natural gas (NG) consists mainly of methane (CH4 ) with some admixture
of heavier hydrocarbons (ethane, propane, and butane). However, frequently noncombustible gases
are found mixed with NG, namely, N2 and CO2 . For example, the recently discovered gas fields
off the coast of the Indonesian archipelago contain up to 70% by volume CO2 . On the average,
NG contains 74.4% by weight of carbon, 24.8% hydrogen, 0.6% nitrogen, and 0.2% oxygen.
26 ◆ GLOBAL ENERGY USE AND SUPPLY

South and
3.6 6.4 Others
Central America
West Europe 5.2
North and 24.3
5.4
West Africa Middle East
Caspian Basin 6.8

Asia and Pacific 7.9 23 Russia

North America 17.4

Figure 2.15 World’s natural gas reserves, percent. (Source: Same as in Figure 2.14.)

On the average, the heating value of NG is 23,500 Btu/lb (55 MJ/kg), or 1032 Btu per cubic foot
(38.5 MJ/m3 ).
Natural gas is a very desirable fuel for several reasons. First, it is easy to combust because,
being a gas, it readily mixes with air. Thus, the combustion is rapidly completed, and the boiler
or furnace volume is smaller than that required for oil or coal combustion. Second, the combusted
gas can directly drive a gas turbine with applications in power generation. Third, gas combustion
does not produce particulate and sulfurous pollutants. Fourth, NG produces one-half the amount
of CO2 per unit heating value as does coal, and it produces three-quarters as much as oil.
The USGS estimate of the world’s natural gas reserves is 6.75 E(15) cubic feet. Taking the
heating value of NG as 1032 Btu/ft3 , the world’s NG reserves amount to 6966 Q, comparable to
those of oil. The world’s rate of consumption of NG in 1995 amounted to 77.5 Q. If that rate were
to continue in the future, the world’s proven gas reserves would be depleted in about 85–90 years.
If gas consumption keeps increasing at a rate of 2.45%/y, the lifetime of the world’s gas reserves
would be only about 50 years.
The gas reserves are distributed among the major reservoirs as follows (in percent): Middle
East (24.3), Russia, including Siberia (23), North America, including the United States, Canada,
and Mexico (17.4), Asia and Pacific (7.9), Caspian Basin (6.8), North and West Africa (5.4), West
Europe, including the North Sea (5.2), South and Central America (3.6), and others (6.4) (see
Figure 2.15).

2.7.5 Unconventional Gas Resources

Methane is known to exist also in unconventional reservoirs. These are (a) gas trapped in sand-
stone, (b) gas trapped in shale rock, (c) gas trapped in coal seams, (d) gas trapped in pressur-
ized underground water reservoirs (“geopressurized methane”), and (e) methane clathrates, also
called hydrates, found at some locations at the bottom of oceans and ice caps. Methane hy-
drates are basically ice crystals in which a methane “guest” molecule is trapped. Hydrates are
formed under the high pressures and low temperatures prevailing at the ocean bottom or ice
caps. The first four reservoirs in the United States alone may yield 600–700 Q, which is about
70% of the proven gas reserves in the United States and about 10% of the world’s proven gas
reserves.
 Conclusion ◆ 27

TABLE 2.4 The World’s Proven Fossil Fuel Reserves, Rates of Consumption, and Lifetimes
Rate of Growth (%/y) Lifetime (y) Lifetime (y)
Fuel Reserves (Q) 1995 Consumption (Q/y) 1987–1997 No Growth with Growth
Coal 24,000 93 0.8 258 140
Oil 9280 141 1.1 66 50
Gas 6966 78 2.5 90 50

The amount of methane hydrates at the ocean bottoms and ice caps may range from 1 to
2 E(16) kg.11 Taking the heating value of methane as 4.76 E(4) Btu/kg, the heating value stored
in methane hydrates could amount to 5–10 E(5) Q, two orders of magnitude larger than proven
gas reserves. However, the amount of gas hydrates is speculative, and no technology exists yet to
recover the methane from gas hydrates laying on the ocean bottom or under ice caps.

2.7.6 Summary of Fossil Reserves

The world’s proven fossil fuel reserves are summarized in Table 2.4. Also listed are the lifetimes
of the reserves for the case that 1995 consumption continues without growth into the future and
for the case that the 1987–1997 growth rate continues into the future.

2.8 CONCLUSION
We reviewed the present and historic trends of energy consumption and supply patterns in the
world as a whole, as well as in individual countries—by industrial sector, by end-use, and per
capita. The so-called “developed” countries consume a much larger amount of energy and emit a
much higher rate of CO2 per capita than the “less developed” countries. However, the converse
is true for energy use per Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The “less developed” countries have
a higher ratio of energy consumption and a higher emission rate of CO2 per dollar GDP than the
“developed” countries.
Measured by the available proven fossil energy reserves, and present rate of consumption, coal
may last 250–300 years, oil 65–70 years, and natural gas 85–90 years. Unconventional fossil energy
resources, such as oil shale, tar sands, geopressurized methane, and methane hydrates, may extend
the lifetime of fossil fuels severalfold, but their exploitation will require greatly increased capital
investment and improved technology. The price of the delivered product will be much higher than
is currently paid for these commodities.
The major conclusion is that for the sake of husbanding the fossil fuel reserves, as well as
for the sake of mitigating air pollution and the CO2 -caused global warming, mankind ought to
conserve these fuels, increase the efficiency of their uses, and shift to nonfossil energy sources.

11Kvenvolden, K. A., 1988. Chem. Geol. 71, 41.

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