José Alberto Ortiz Gutierrez 5° F Mechatronics

Historical background of probability

Probability is the very guide of life.

Probability is one of the basic instruments of statistics and one of its origins in the
gambling in the 17th century.
Gambling games, as their name implies, include actions such as spinning a roulette wheel, throwing
data, draw out currency, extract a card from a deck, etc., in which the result of a
The event is uncertain. However, even when the outcome of a particular event is uncertain,
there is a result that can be predicted. (The events involving chance are called
random)
To quantify the likelihood of an event occurring, we use the word probability and it is a
special type of measurement: it is the measure of the uncertainty of an event.
In general, a common characteristic of events whose frequency is expressed in terms of
Probability is the prior uncertainty about the occurrence of those events in a particular case.
Despite this, there may be a need to predict the outcome in order to make a decision.
For example, every time a flight is taken, it is uncertain whether an event will occur or not.
accident: there is a small probability that this will occur and, completely, a high one
probability that it will not happen. Making the decision to take a flight means predicting that
There will be no accident, a prediction based on the small probability of it occurring.

They have contributed to the development of probability theory:

Girolamo Cardano (1501-1576), philosopher, anthropologist, and Italian mathematician, to whom the credit is given
first discussion on probability in your player's manual 'liber de ludo'
"Alea" ("Manual for rolling the dice")

Galileo Galilei (1563-1642), Italian mathematician, physicist, and astronomer, wrote in 1620
an exhibition on the subject, when requested by gambling enthusiasts.

The problem arose in the following way: if we roll three dice at the same time, what is the
most frequent result? Experienced players opined that a total of 10 and 11 points.
Was this conclusion from the players objective?

Galileo responded with an article titled 'on the scorpions of dice' (About the
discoveries of the die). Galileo's reasoning was as follows: if we throw a die once
(of 6 faces), the probability of a specific outcome appearing is 1/6.

If we roll a die twice, the probability of getting different results increases, since the
the result of each die can be combined with the results of the other die. Specifically, in this
There will be 6.6 possible combinations.

It seems logical that if we sum the results of two dice rolled simultaneously, the
Total possibilities do not have an equal probability of occurring.

Thus, for example, to obtain a value of 2 with two dice, there is only one possibility in 36.
Yes, to get a result of 4, there is a higher probability, as a sum of 4 can be obtained.
in three different ways: (1,3); (2,2); (3,1).

If we roll three dice, each of the 36 possible outcomes obtained from the roll of
Two dice can be combined with another 6 possible outcomes, resulting in 216.
possible outcomes.

Analyzing these results, Galileo answered the question 10 or 11 was common, but also
There was practically the same possibility of obtaining values between 9 and 12.

It refers to the story that in the year 1650 the French knight de Meré, a passionate gambler, would have
taken to Blaise Pascal, (1632-1662), problems related to games of chance. Pascal in turn
José Alberto Ortiz Gutierrez 5° F Mechatronics

he began correspondence with other mathematician friends, standing out among them Pierre Permat
(1601-1665) for the studies conducted.

Christiaan Huygens (1629-1695), Dutch physicist, geometer, and astronomer, published a treatise in 1657.
probability problems that was a treatise on problems related to games.

According to history, in the 18th century, the calculation of probabilities soon became
popular for its references to gambling and developed rapidly. In society
European at that time, particularly in France, the game mobilized many people and a
considerable amount of money.

Those who contributed the most to its development during this period were:
Jacobo derouilli (1654-1705), Swiss mathematician, from a Dutch family that sought refuge in
Basel. In 1713 his work titled 'ars conjectandi' (the art of conjecture) was published, a few years
after his death.

Abraham de Moivre (1667-1754), French geometer, published in 1718 'The Doctrine of Chance' (la
doctrine of probabilities), where the first indications of the normal distribution appear
of probabilities.

Laplace (1749-1827) introduced new rules and ideas and demonstrated that the theory could be
applied to multiple problems of a scientific and practical nature. He published in 1812 "analytical theory"
of probabilities.” For Laplace, the theory of probabilities is nothing other than “the sense
common reduced to calculations.

Only in 1933, A. N. Kolmogorov, a Russian mathematician, published a famous book on probabilities.

based on set theory. He was responsible for presenting the first axiomatic treatment of
the theory of probability.

As general information, I point out that the order of the historical development of the theory of
probability was as follows:

1.- classical or 'a priori' probability (Laplace)

2.-frequentist probability or 'a posteriori'
Statistical probability
3.- axiomatic model.

Finally, we will establish that probabilities are of fundamental importance in areas

as statistics (chance affects both the gathering of data and its analysis), physical sciences,
technology social sciences, genetics, life insurance, and in any event related to it
data analysis.

2.- events and probabilities

2.1 sample space and events

When we roll a die, for example, the results that can come up are: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.
In the case of tossing a coin, the possible outcomes are heads and tails.

The set of "possible outcomes" can be any set, provided that its
elected appear as a result of an experiment. Instead of "set of possible outcomes"
the name of the sample space has been introduced, and the experiments that lead to spaces
they are called random experiments.
José Alberto Ortiz Gutierrez 5° F Mechatronics

It is called the sample space, associating with a random experiment, the set of all
possible outcomes of said experiment.

If a, a2, … anThese are all the possible results of a random experiment, then s = {a1,
a2... an }

Note 1: in our study we will only consider non-empty finite sample spaces: s contains
a finite number of possible outcomes. If s is a countable set, that is, it contains a
finite number or countably finite number of possible outcomes, then s is called a space
discrete sample.
(If s is uncountable infinity, then it is referred to as continuous sample space).

A countable set if it is possible to establish a one-to-one correspondence with n or an initial part.

of n.

A countable ßà a ßà n or with an initial part of n.

Example: Q is a countable set because it is coordinate with n.

Q ßà N

Counterexample: R ß/à N; on the other hand R ßà] -1, 1[ there are as many reals in R as in ]-1, 1[, or as
in any open interval ]a, b[, a < b.

Examples of sampling spaces

1.- coin toss: S = {c, s}

2.- alternatives of a proportion: S= {1, 0}
3.- sexo de los recién nacidos: s = {varón, mujer}
4.- choice of an ice cream: s = {lucuma, chocolate, strawberry}
5.- Rolling a die: s = {1, 2, 3, 5, 6}

a) What are Cartesian products:

1.- tossing a coin twice (or tossing two coins at once, identifiable by a
marca).

Also in this example, it is possible to consider as sample space

The sum of the numbers showing on the upper faces of the dice.
I mean,
S = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12} in connection with the experiments often indicated
certain subsets are of interest. For example, the following subsets of the sample space
precedent
S = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12}:
A = {(X, Y) / X + Y = 7} = {(1, 6), (2, 5) , (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), (6, 1)}
The sum of the dice results is 7.

B = { (x, y) / x + y < 4} = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (2, 1)}

(SUM OF THE DICE RESULTS IS LESS THAN 4)

A set A is called an event if and only if A is a subset of S; that is, to every subset of a space.
sample S.
Let S be a sample space and A be an event.

In particular, if we consider the event 'the sum of the dice results is less than 3',
then the set contains a single element: A = {(1, 1)}
José Alberto Ortiz Gutierrez 5° F Mechatronics

An event that contains a single element is called an elemental event (or sample point).

Note 2: event does not have the vulgar meaning of something that occurs, of something that happens: it is
a statistical element and implies the characterization of a fact, but not its occurrence.
The fact itself characterizes the event, whether it happens or not.

Note 3: For any sample space S, S and o are events, since S and o are subsets of S.

2.2 mutually exclusive events

When rolling a die once, you can get, for example, 5 or 6, but not both; that is, not
occur simultaneously.

It is said that two events A and B are mutually exclusive if and only if A B = 0.
They are also said to be incompatible.

3.- Classic probability or 2 apriori.

In the scientific method of treating statistical problems, as well as in any other field
From the scientific methodology, two general aspects can be discussed:

1.- based on certain hypotheses, and it is intended to predict certain results;