Global Change
Global Change
We started this course by stating that the Earth is a complex system. Changes that take place in
one part of the system have effects on other parts. The tectonic system is driven by the heat in
the Earth. This drives the rock cycle, which is also affected by the atmosphere and biosphere.
The atmosphere is in chemical equilibrium with the oceans and exchanges matter with the
biosphere. All process act on a variety of time scales from hundreds of millions of years to
microseconds. We as human beings are only now realizing that, as part of the biosphere, we
have an effect on the Earth. What the effect is, we are only now beginning to understand. Here
we try to put this in perspective.
One of the reasons life exists on Earth is that the surface has a controlled temperature in the
range between the freezing and boiling points of water. The Earth is the only planet in the solar
system where this is true. Part of the reason for this results from the distance from the Sun. But,
the reason that temperature remains fixed is controlled by the atmosphere.
Radiation reaching the Earth from the Sun is electromagnetic radiation. Electromagnetic
radiation can be divided into different regions depending on wavelength. Note that visible light
is the part of the electromagnetic spectrum to which human eyes are sensitive. The lowest
wavelengths of the spectrum have the highest energy. Infrared & microwaves carry
considerable amounts of heat energy.
Earth receives all wavelengths of solar radiation. But certain gases and other contaminants in
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Dry air is composed of about 78% Nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and 1% Argon. It also contains
water, 4% at saturation, but saturation depends on temperature. In addition trace gases have an
effect. Among the trace gases are:
Ozone (O3)
Ozone is produced in the upper atmosphere (30 35 km above surface) by incoming ultraviolet
radiation. Ultraviolet radiation causes O2 to go to O + O. Some of the O then recombines with
O2 to make O3. This ozone then absorbs more ultraviolet radiation and breaks down to O2 + O.
This O can then can recombine with O2 to make more Ozone. The process is self regulating
and results in less ultraviolet radiation reaching the Earth's surface.
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It has been observed that the protecting ozone layer in the upper atmosphere has
deteriorated over the last 50 years, a result thought to be produced by human
introduction of CFCs into the atmosphere.
Energy coming from the Sun is carried by electromagnetic radiation. Some of this
radiation is reflected back into space by clouds and dust in the atmosphere. The rest
reaches the surface of the Earth, where again it is reflected by water and ice or absorbed
by the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere absorb some of the longer
wavelength (infrared) radiation and keep some of it in the atmosphere. This keeps the
atmospheric temperature relatively stable so long as the concentration of greenhouse
gases remains relatively stable, and thus, the greenhouse gases are necessary for life to
exist on Earth.
The most important green house gases are H2O (water vapor), CO2 (Carbon Dioxide),
CH4 (methane), and Ozone. H2O is the most abundant greenhouse gas, but its
concentration in the atmosphere varies with temperature. Venus, which has mostly CO2
in its atmosphere, has temperature of about 500oC (also partly due to nearness to Sun).
We must look at how carbon moves through the environment. Carbon is stored in four main
reservoirs.
1. In the atmosphere as CO2 gas. From here it exchanges with seawater or water in the
atmosphere to return to the oceans, or exchanges with the biosphere by photosynthesis,
where it is extracted from the atmosphere by plants. CO2 returns to the atmosphere by
respiration from living organisms, from decay of dead organisms, from weathering of
rocks, from leakage of petroleum reservoirs, and from burning of fossil fuels by humans.
2. In the hydrosphere (oceans and surface waters) as dissolved CO2. From here it
precipitates to form chemical sedimentary rocks, or is taken up by organisms to enter the
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3. In the biosphere where it occurs as organic compounds in organisms. CO2 enters the
biosphere mainly through photosynthesis. From organisms it can return to the
atmosphere by respiration and by decay when organisms die, or it can become buried in
the Earth.
4. In the Earth's lithosphere as carbonate minerals, graphite, coal, petroleum. This is by far
the largest reservoir. From here it can return to the atmosphere by weathering, volcanic
eruptions, hot springs, or by human extraction and burning to produce energy.
Cycling between the atmosphere and the biosphere occurs about every 4.5 years. Cycling
between the other reservoirs occurs on an average of millions of years.
For example, carbon stored in the Earth in sedimentary rocks or as fossil fuels only reenters
the atmosphere naturally when weathering and erosion expose these materials to the Earth's
surface or volcanoes erupt. When humans extract and burn fossil fuels the process occurs much
more rapidly than it would occur by natural processes. With an increased rate of cycling
between the Earth and the atmosphere, extraction from the atmosphere by increased interaction
with the oceans, or by increased extraction by organisms must occur to balance the input. If this
does not occur, it may result in increasing concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere and result
in global warming.
Volcanic Effects
Volcanoes produce several things that result in changing atmosphere and atmospheric
temperatures.
1. CO2 produced by volcanoes adds to the greenhouse gases and may result in
warming of the atmosphere.
2. Sulfur gases produced by volcanoes reflect low wavelength radiation back into
space, and thus result in cooling of the atmosphere.
3. Dust particles injected into the atmosphere by volcanoes reflect low wavelength
radiation back into space, and thus can result in cooling of the atmosphere.
The Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1991 and El Chichón eruption in 1981 released large
quantities of dust and sulfur gases resulted in short term cooling of atmosphere.
Volcanism in the middle Cretaceous produced large quantities of basalt on the seafloor
and released large amounts of CO2. The middle Cretaceous was much warmer than
present, resulting in much higher sea level.
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Paleoclimatology
Before we can assess the human impact on global climates, we need to first look at how
climates have varied in the past. The study of such past climate change is called
paleoclimatology. Such study involves the study of earth history using stratigraphic methods
to look for indicators of ancient climates. It also involves the study of how sea level has
changed through time, again using clues left in the rock record and how ocean temperatures
have changed in the past using stable isotope ratios observed in fossils. Because air can get
trapped in glacial ice, drilling through the ice to find air bubbles trapped in the ice can be used
to obtain samples of ancient atmospheres.
Combining this with radiometric age dates allows us to determine how concentration of CO2
and methane in the atmosphere has changed over time, as well as how dust concentrations in
the atmosphere have varied. Paleoclimatology also involves using the data to construct
computer models in attempt to understand the causes of past climate change and project how
climates might change in the future.
From our study of glaciations we know that climate can change as result of natural processes,
both becoming warmer and colder than present. Although these climatic fluctuations appear to
be caused by Malinkovich cycles, it is interesting to note that during glaciations in the past the
concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere were lower, atmospheric dust was
higher, and the Earth's albedo was higher, all of these factors could have contributed to cooler
climates. Similarly, during past interglacial episodes, the atmosphere contained less dust,
higher concentrations of greenhouse gases, and the Earth had a lower albedo, all of which
contribute to warmer climates. The questions that remain to be answered are:
Are there higher concentrations of greenhouse gases and lower dust concentrations in the
atmosphere due to the warmer temperatures or did they cause the warmer temperatures?
Are these differences simply due to Malinkovich cycles, or is there some other natural
self regulating process that allows for cycles?
Geologists have been able to reconstruct CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere for the past 100
million years, and average atmospheric temperature based on a wide variety of geologic and
geochemical evidence. From this reconstruction, it appears that temperature was much higher
than present during the MidCretaceous, during the Eocene, and during the Pliocene. We will
next look at what might have caused these periods of global warming.
MidCretaceous
Large volcanic plateaus were emplaced in the ocean basins. The total volume of these
eruptions of basalt are unknown, as some may have been subducted, but many are greater
than 10 million km3. (The Ontong Java plateau of the southwestern Pacific alone has a
volume of ~ 55 million km3.
The time interval during which these volcanic plateaus were emplaced correlate with:
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A peak in sea level stands, which became 100 to 200 m higher than present.
CO2 released from the magmas erupted on the ocean floor by these plumes
resulted in a super green house effect, causing mid Cretaceous climates to increase
to 10 to 12o C above current average global temperatures.
The large volume of basalts erupted on the ocean floor displaced sea water
resulting higher stands of the sea.
This example serves to show how events deep within the Earth, (events taking place at
the core mantle boundary) could have a drastic effect on conditions at the Earth's
surface.
Tropical vegetation and tropical marine organism fossils occur up to 45 to 55o North and
South Latitude, about 15o higher than today.
Estimates of atmospheric CO2 concentrations show values between 2 and 6 times current
values.
The increased CO2 concentrations have been attributed to a large scale metamorphic event that
occurred as a result of the continentcontinent collision that began to uplift the Himalayas, and
other metamorphic events that occurred in the Mediterranean region and the CircumPacific
region during the Eocene. Such metamorphic events, particularly in the upper parts of the
metamorphic areas where greenschist metamorphism would occur, would release large
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This example shows how the rock cycle itself, aided by tectonic processes could affect
atmospheric conditions.
Humans and Climate Change
The CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has been increasing since the mid 1800s. The
increase correlates well with burning of fossil fuels. Thus, humans appear to have an effect.
Methane concentration in the atmosphere has also been increasing. Naturally this occurs due to
decay of organic matter, the digestive processes of organisms, and leaks from petroleum
reservoirs. Humans have contributed through domestication of animals, increased production of
rice, and leaks from gas pipelines and gasoline.
Global Warming
Average global temperatures vary with time as a result of many processes interacting with each
other. These interactions and the resulting variation in temperature can occur on a variety of
time scales ranging from yearly cycles to those with times measured in millions of years. Such
variation in global temperatures is difficult to understand because of the complexity of the
interactions and because accurate records of global temperature do not go back more than 100
years. But, even if we look at the record for the past 100 years, we see that overall, there is an
increase in average global temperatures, with minor setbacks that may have been controlled by
random events such as volcanic eruptions or El Niño events (See figure 23.24b in your text).
Records for the past 100 years indicate that average global temperatures have increased by
about 0.7oC. While this may not seem like much, the difference in global temperature between
the coldest period of the last glaciation and the present was only about 5oC.
In order to predict future temperature changes we first need to understand what has caused past
temperature changes. Computer models, called Global Circulation Models have been
constructed to attempt this. Although there is still some uncertainty, most of these models agree
that if the greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere until they have doubled
over their pre1860 values, the average global temperature increase will be between 1 and 5oC
by the year 2050. This is not a uniform temperature increase. Most models show that the effect
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will be greatest at high latitudes (near the poles) where yearly temperatures could be as much as
16oC warmer than present.
Changes in Ice patterns. Due to higher temperatures, ice in mountain glaciers will melt.
This is now being observed. But, because more water will be evaporated from the
oceans, more precipitation will reach the polar ice sheets causing them to grow.
Reduction of sea ice Sea ice will be greatly reduced to the increased temperatures at the
high latitudes, particularly in the northern hemisphere where there is more abundant sea
ice. This is now being observed.
Ice has a high albedo (reflectivity), and thus reduction of ice will reduce the albedo of the
Earth and less solar radiation will be reflected back into space, thus enhancing the
warming effect.
Thawing of frozen ground Currently much of the ground at high latitudes remains
frozen all year. Increased temperatures will cause much of this ground to thaw. Organic
compounds and gas hydrates in the frozen ground will be subject to decay, releasing
more methane into the atmosphere and enhancing the greenhouse effect. Ecosystems and
human structures currently built on frozen ground will have to adjust.
Rise of sea level Warming the oceans results in expansion of water and thus increases
the volume of water in the oceans. Along with melting of mountain glaciers and
reduction in sea ice, this will cause sea level to rise and flood coastal zones, where much
of the world's population currently resides.
Changes in the hydrologic cycle With new patterns of precipitation changes in stream
flow and groundwater level will be expected.
Breakdown of gas hydrates This is basically solid water with gas molecules like
methane locked into the crystal structure. They occur in oceanic sediments and beneath
frozen ground at the high latitudes. Warming of the oceans or warming of the soil at
high attitudes could cause melting of the gas hydrates which would release methane into
the atmosphere. Since methane is a greenhouse gas, this would cause further global
warming.
Hopefully this will give you an idea about how human beings can effect the way the Earth
works, and also give you an idea about the complexity of the interactions between various parts
of the Earth and processes that occur throughout the Earth.
Unfortunately, the complexity of the processes are not completely understood. This has major
political implications. For example, scientists are uncertain about the reliability of models that
attempt to predict future conditions. This uncertainty is taken by some political factions as a
denial that an event like global warming will take place.
Most scientists, however, agree that global warming is taking place and that human input of
carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is most likely responsible. Politicians want, or expect you
to want, exact answers with no uncertainty. That is not the way science works.
The real question, however, is whether or not we should be preparing for such events to avoid
disaster if the warming trend continues, or, since we can't be absolutely certain, just wait until
the disaster has occurred and we can do nothing about it.
1. What causes the breakdown of ozone in the upper atmosphere, what effect does ozone
depletion have on life, and what has been done to decrease further depletion of ozone?
3. What are the greenhouse gasses and which of these is the most abundant?
4. Why is the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere of particular concern in terms
of global warming?
5. During the Pleistocene, how did the concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and dust
vary with temperature?
7. What is the evidence that global warming has taken place since the mid 1800s and that
humans are responsible for the warming?
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