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The document discusses the SIR model, a mathematical framework used to model the dynamics of infectious disease transmission, which categorizes individuals into Susceptible, Infectious, and Removed compartments. It highlights the importance of understanding disease transmission, public health responses, and the impact of infectious diseases on communities and healthcare systems. The SIR model serves as a valuable tool for forecasting epidemics and evaluating intervention strategies to control outbreaks.

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12 views

1

The document discusses the SIR model, a mathematical framework used to model the dynamics of infectious disease transmission, which categorizes individuals into Susceptible, Infectious, and Removed compartments. It highlights the importance of understanding disease transmission, public health responses, and the impact of infectious diseases on communities and healthcare systems. The SIR model serves as a valuable tool for forecasting epidemics and evaluating intervention strategies to control outbreaks.

Uploaded by

mashsharat.maliha
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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An Assignment On

Modeling the Dynamics of Infectious Diseases


through the SIR Model

Course Code: VM-602


Course Title: Veterinary Epidemiology

Submitted to Submitted by
Dr.A.K.M. Anisur Rahman Name: Md. Asaduzzaman Rony
Professor Id No: 23210801
Department of Medicine Semester: October-March 2024
Faculty of Veterinary Department of Medicine,
Science Bangladesh Agricultural University
Bangladesh Agricultural University Mymensingh-2202
Mymensingh-2202

Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh-2202


Introduction
Mathematical models of the dynamics of infectious disease transmission are useful for
forecasting epidemics, evaluating public health interventions, and inferring properties of
diseases.
In compartmental epidemic models each member of the population is categorized based on their
disease status in addition to, possibly, their attributes and/or the treatment they received. The
dynamics of disease transmission are then typically modeled with differential equations that
describe the flow of individuals between the compartments as the population mixes, the disease
spreads, infected individuals progress through the stages of the disease, and public health
interventions are implemented.
The parsimonious, classic Susceptible–Infectious–Removed (SIR) compartmental model gives
insights into the dynamics of epidemics and shows utility for understanding how public health
interventions affect the trajectory of an epidemic .

Infectious diseases and their impact on public health

The impact of infectious diseases on public health can be profound, affecting individuals,
communities, and healthcare systems in various ways. Some key points to consider in a brief
overview include:

Transmission: Infectious diseases can spread through direct contact with infected individuals,
respiratory droplets, contaminated surfaces, or vectors like mosquitoes. Understanding the modes
of transmission is crucial for implementing effective control measures.

Disease Burden: Infectious diseases contribute significantly to the global burden of disease,
causing illness, disability, and mortality. They can affect individuals of all ages and
socioeconomic backgrounds, with certain populations being more vulnerable to severe outcomes.

Epidemic and Pandemic: Infectious diseases have the potential to cause epidemics (localized
outbreaks) or pandemics (global outbreaks). Events like the COVID-19 pandemic highlight the
rapid spread and impact of infectious diseases on a global scale.
Public health Response: Public health agencies play a critical role in monitoring, preventing, and
controlling infectious diseases. Strategies such as surveillance, vaccination, outbreak
investigations, and public education are essential for mitigating the impact of infectious diseases.

Antimicrobial Resistance: The emergence of antimicrobial resistance poses a significant threat to


the effective treatment of infectious diseases. Addressing this challenge requires a coordinated
effort to promote responsible antibiotic use and develop new treatment options.

SIR model
In the classic SIR model of an epidemic each member of the population belongs to one of three
compartments: Susceptible, Infectious, or Removed.

Susceptible folks can contract the disease if they come into contact with an infectious individual.
Once infected, they move into the infectious compartment, assuming zero delay between
infection and the ability to transmit the disease. This is analogous to an irreversible, autocatalytic
chemical reaction between a reactant, S, and catalyst, I:

S+I→2I

Infectious individuals eventually recover or die from the disease, entering the removed
compartment. Folks in the removed compartment do not participate in disease transmission. That
is, they cannot transmit the disease, nor can they contract it again, assuming that recovery from
the disease confers immunity to reinfection. This is analogous to a reaction where the catalyst, I,
irreversibly degrades or converts to a deactivated form, R:
I→RI→R

We assume permanent protective immunity is conferred upon recovery from the disease, thus
neglecting the possibility of an R → S reaction.
So, the SIR model of an epidemic is analogous to an autocatalytic reaction with catalyst
deactivation. An infectious individual upon contacting (colliding with) a susceptible individual
(the reactant, S), can convert them into another infectious individual (another catalyst particle)
and recovers or dies (deactivates) with time.

Figure : The SIR model.

The boxes represent the set of susceptible, infectious, and removed individuals. The arrows
represent flow and are annotated with per capita flow rates.

The SIR model has been widely used in the study of various infectious diseases, such as
influenza, measles, and COVID-19. By incorporating factors such as vaccination rates, social
distancing measures, and the effectiveness of medical interventions .

SIR model dynamics


In the SIR model, what happens if we introduce a small number of infectious individuals into a
large population of susceptible individuals? This is akin to injecting our deactivating
autocatalyst, I, into a well-mixed batch reactor containing pure S. The corresponding initial
conditions are:
[S](0)=[S]0[S](0)=[S]0

[I](0)=[I]0[I](0)=[I]0

[R](0)=0,[R](0)=0,
with [S]0 + [I]0 = 1, [I]0 << 1 and [S]0, [I]0 > 0. We consider [R](0) = 0 for the interesting case
where a population is exposed to a novel pathogen to which it has no immunity.

Herd immunity

A population achieves herd immunity when a sufficient fraction are immune to the disease so as
to confer indirect, population-level protection from an invasion of the disease upon the
introduction of an infectious individual. Notably, the immunity could be acquired by either
previous infection or by vaccination.
The administration of a vaccine that confers perfect and permanent immunity to a susceptible
individual is modeled by introducing an S → R reaction to the SIR model.

Conclusion

The SIR model serves as a powerful tool in understanding the spread of infectious diseases and
evaluating intervention strategies to control outbreaks. Through this assignment, we have delved
into the intricacies of the SIR model, exploring its compartments, parameters, applications, and
limitations.

The SIR model's ability to compartmentalize a population into Susceptible, Infected, and
Recovered individuals provides a structured framework for studying disease dynamics. By
incorporating parameters such as the transmission rate, recovery rate, and basic reproduction
number, the model offers valuable insights into the progression of infectious diseases within a
population.
References

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. 2010. Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent-
based versus structured metapopulation models. BMC Infectious Diseases 10(1):190
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directionality, heterogeneity and correlations in epidemic risk and spread. arXiv.
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Driessche P, Wu J, eds. Mathematical Epidemiology. Berlin: Springer. 81-130
4. Allen LJ. 2017. A primer on stochastic epidemic models: formulation, numerical
simulation, and analysis. Infectious Disease Modelling 2(2):128-142
5. Anderson RM. 1991. Discussion: the kermack-mckendrick epidemic threshold
theorem. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 53(1–2):1
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model. Journal of Theoretical Biology 110(4):665-679
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model. Journal of Computational Science 1(3):132-145
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