I Philippine Equity Research COLing the Shots

Tuesday, 07 May 2024

De Ja Vu

The Philippine market suffered from significant volatility during the first four April Tan, CFA
Chief Equity Strategist
months of the year. After rising by as much as 8.2%, the PSEi index erased almost
all its gains for 2024 before rebounding to end the month of April higher by 4.9%
for the year-to-date period. A monthly publication
by COL which provides
Although the market has somewhat stabilized, we believe there is a possibility insights on investment
that we could see a repeat of 2023 given numerous similarities. Recall that last opportunities based
year, the stock market also started the year strong but ended the year flat as on global and local
inflation continued to increase. The U.S. Fed and the BSP also disappointed as developments that could
they did not pivot and even tightened further. Finally, the reopening of China did affect the market.

not result to significantly higher economic growth, negatively affecting sentiment

COLing the Shots aims to
for emerging market stocks.
provide timely and relevant
information and analysis as
This year, the market started the year strong due to the peaking of inflation
well as a model portfolio for
and expectations that the Fed and the BSP would pivot. However, domestically,
successful investing.
inflation remains sticky due to the significant increase in rice prices and the
rebound of oil prices. A possible Php100 increase in daily minimum wages later
this year would also push up inflation. Because of this, the BSP already said it
might delay rate cuts from the second half of this year to the first quarter of next
year. The Fed is also now expected to cut rates only once this year, much less
than the market’s initial expectations of six to seven times, as inflation in the U.S.
is also showing signs of stickiness.

Due to the said developments, the Philippine 10-year bond rate increased by 101
basis points for the year-to-date period to 7.01%, while the peso depreciated by
4.2% to 57.675. Higher interest rates and a weak peso are negative for the stock
market.

However, neither do we see a risk of significant weakness as the Philippine

market’s long-term fundamentals remain attractive. The Philippines also has
qualities that make it stand out compared to other ASEAN markets. For example,
the Philippine economy is more resilient to a global economic slowdown as
consumer spending accounts for more than 70% of GDP, while OFW remittances
and BPO revenues have historically been resilient to global recessions. The
Philippines’ favorable demographics should also support economic growth.

Disclaimer: All content provided in COL Reports are meant to be read in the COL Financial website. Accuracy and completeness of content cannot be guaranteed if reports are viewed
outside of the COL Financial website as these may be subject to tampering or unauthorized alterations.
COLing the Shots I De Ja Vu Tuesday, 07 May 2024

Because of this, the Philippines is expected to deliver one of the fastest GDP
growths among ASEAN member countries at 5.8% this year.

Meanwhile, the risk of a banking crisis or massive defaults is minimal. Banks are
strong, with high capital adequacy ratios, low non-performing loans with high
levels of coverage, and high levels of liquidity. Listed companies are also liquid
and not over leveraged.

Finally, the stock market is already in the late stages of a bear market as evidenced
by very low trading volumes and very cheap valuations. Average daily value
turnover is less than half of what it was during the market’s peak. Meanwhile, the
PSEi index is trading at only 11X P/E, more than 2 standard deviations below its
10-year historical average. There are also numerous share buybacks and insider
buying activities.

We continue to recommend stocks belonging to more defensive sectors (power,

telcos, utilities) as high inflation and interest rates should continue to hurt
earnings of companies belonging to more cyclical sectors. However, we like the
big three banks, and recommend buying them on corrections as they are reaping
the benefits of their size and their prudent lending practices in the past.

Although companies belonging to more cyclical sectors will be hurt by high

inflation and interest rates, some listed companies have more defensive qualities
and are trading at valuations that are too cheap to ignore. SMPH is one of those
companies and we are adding it to our COLing the Shots stock picks list. Note
that around 60% of SMPH’s operating profits come from the mall leasing business,
making it more resilient to economic weakness. Moreover, SMPH is now trading
at only 17X P/E, more than 2 standard deviations below its 10-year historical
average earnings multiple.

2
COLing the Shots I De Ja Vu Tuesday, 07 May 2024

Exbihit 1: COLing the Shots Stock Picks

Sector Stock Price FV Upside Buy Below P/E 2024E P/BV 2024E Div Yield 2024E
AREIT 33.95 - - 6.4%
REITs
CREIT 2.84 - - 6.7%
AP 37.3 51.80 38.9% 45.00 9.69 1.29 6.2%
Power
MER 374 471.70 26.1% 410.00 12.68 2.33 4.8%
SM 944.5 1161.00 22.9% 1009.00 13.63 2 1.1%
Holding Cos.
GTCAP 639 955.00 49.5% 795.00 5.08 0.52 1.3%
Banks MBT 71.5 87.00 21.7% 75.60 7.04 0.82 4.9%
ALI 26.8 40.50 51.1% 35.20 17.52 1.33 0.8%
Properties RLC 15.75 26.20 66.3% 20.90 6.94 0.51 3.5%
SMPH 27.35 43.20 58.0% 36.00 17.53 1.78 1.6%
URC 106.8 150.00 40.4% 130.00 15.96 1.84 3.7%
Consumers
MONDE 11.16 11.90 6.6% 10.30 22.78 2.16 1.1%
Telcos TEL 1,346.00 1720.00 27.8% 1433.00 8.63 2.36 6.9%
source: COL estimates

3
PH Stock Market:
De Ja Vu?
A P R I L L . TA N , C FA
C H I E F E Q U I T Y S T R AT E G I S T
 Page / 2

PSEi Index
PH up 4.9% YTD
due to expectation
7,100.00

of Fed pivot,
7,000.00

6,900.00

peaking inflation 6,800.00

& interest rates 6,700.00

domestically
6,600.00

6,500.00

6,400.00

6,300.00

6,200.00

6,100.00
1/2/24 2/2/24 3/2/24 4/2/24

Source: Bloomberg
 Page / 3

PSEi Index
Could we see a
repeat of 2023’s
7,200.00

7,000.00

performance? 6,800.00

6,600.00

6,400.00

6,200.00

6,000.00

5,800.00

5,600.00

2023 2024

Source: Bloomberg
 Page / 4

Review of 2023
Market rallied in January
• US inflation peaked
• Fed and PH central bank expected to pivot
• Reopening of China

Market failed to sustain its strong performance

• PH inflation rose further due to rising food and oil prices
• Fed and PH central bank continued to tighten
• China’s economic performance disappointed
• PH economic growth hurt by high inflation and interest rates
 accounts for 9%
• Oil up 14.9% YTD
expected

year high due to El Nino

inflation basket while rice

• Rice inflation hit 23.7% y/y in

• Food accounts for 39% of the

March as prices reached a 15-
2024 inflation
is stickier than

60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
22.00

04/12/2021
05/12/2021
06/12/2021
07/12/2021
08/12/2021
09/12/2021
10/12/2021
11/12/2021
12/12/2021
01/12/2022
02/12/2022
03/12/2022
04/12/2022
05/12/2022
06/12/2022
07/12/2022
08/12/2022
Oil

09/12/2022
Rice

10/12/2022
11/12/2022
12/12/2022
01/12/2023
02/12/2023
03/12/2023
04/12/2023
05/12/2023
06/12/2023
07/12/2023
08/12/2023
09/12/2023
10/12/2023
11/12/2023
12/12/2023
01/12/2024
02/12/2024
03/12/2024
Source: Bloomberg

04/12/2024
Page / 5
 Page / 6

Minimum wages
could increase
significantly ...
 Page / 7

... Negatively
affecting
inflation &
economic growth
 Page / 8

CME Fedwatch Tool – Conditional Meeting Probabilities

From six or Meeting Date

375-
400
400-
425
425-
450
450-
475
475-
500
500-
525
525-
550
550-
575

seven, US Fed 5/1/2024 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99.0% 1.0%

expected to 6/12/2024 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 89.7% 0.9%

only cut rates 7/31/2024 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 22.7% 75.1% 0.7%

once in 2024 9/18/2024

11/17/2024
0.0%

0.0%
0.0%

0.0%
0.0%

0.1%
0.5%

2.1%
7.9%

14.5%
38.4%

41.5%
52.8%

41.4%
0.5%

0.4%

12/18/2024 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 7.1% 25.4% 41.5% 24.8% 0.2%

1/29/2025 0.0% 0.3% 2.7% 12.4% 30.0% 36.7% 17.7% 0.2%

3/19/2025 0.1% 1.2% 6.5% 19.3% 32.6% 29.3% 10.9% 0.1%

4/30/2025 0.4% 2.7% 10.1% 23.0% 31.7% 24.1% 7.9% 0.1%

 as a result
increase while
PH bond rates

Peso depreciates

45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
61

05/03/2021
06/03/2021
07/03/2021
08/03/2021
09/03/2021
10/03/2021
11/03/2021
12/03/2021
01/03/2022
02/03/2022
03/03/2022
04/03/2022
05/03/2022
06/03/2022
07/03/2022
08/03/2022
09/03/2022
10/03/2022
11/03/2022
12/03/2022
01/03/2023
02/03/2023
PHP vs USD

03/03/2023
10-Yr Bond Rate

04/03/2023
05/03/2023
06/03/2023
07/03/2023
08/03/2023
09/03/2023
10/03/2023
11/03/2023
12/03/2023
01/03/2024
02/03/2024
03/03/2024
Source: Bloomberg

04/03/2024
Page / 9
 Page / 10

PH central bank
also plans to
delay rate cuts
due to sticky
inflation

Source: Bloomberg
 Page / 11

High inflation & Q4 ’22 Q1 ‘23 Q2 ’23 Q3 ‘23 Q4 ‘23

interest rates Household Final

Consumption
7.0 6.4 5.5 5.1 5.3

could also drag Government Final

Consumption
3.3 6.2 -7.1 6.7 -1.8

2024 GDP Gross Capital

3.8 12.6 0.3 -1.4 11.2

growth
Formation
Exports of Goods and
14.6 1.0 4.4 2.6 -2.6
Services
Gross Domestic
7.1 6.4 4.3 5.9 5.6
Product

Source: Bloomberg
 Page / 12

Why we shouldn’t be
too pessimistic
• PH more resilient to global economic slowdown
• Strong, liquid banking sector
• Listed companies not overleveraged
• PH already in late-stage bear market
• Very attractive valuations
• Abundant share buyback/ insider buying
• Falling value T/O
 Page / 13

PH more ASEAN 24’E GDP Growth (%)

resilient to Singapore 2.5
global economic Thailand 2.8
slowdown Malaysia 4.3

Indonesia 5.0

Philippines 5.8

Vietnam 6.0
Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates
 Page / 14

PH more
GDP Breakdown*

resilient to
Net Exports
9.0%

global economic
slowdown
Investments
23.3%

PH not dependent on exports Household

Consumption
Consumer spending accounts for
73.2%
>70% of GDP Government
Consumption
Remittances, BPO revenues historically 12.6%
resilient to global recessions

*10-year historical average

Source: PSA, COL estimates, Bloomberg
 Page / 15

OFW Remittances (US$ Mil)

PH more
3.0% CAGR
34,000.0 33,491.0

resilient to
33,000.0 32,539.4

32,000.0 31,417.6

global economic
31,000.0
30,133.3 29,903.3
30,000.0
28,943.1
29,000.0

slowdown
28,000.0

27,000.0

26,000.0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
PH not dependent on exports
Consumer spending accounts for BPO Revenues (US$ Bil)
>70% of GDP 7.6% CAGR
40.00
35.40
35.00 32.50

Remittances, BPO revenues historically

29.49
30.00 27.03
26.30

resilient to global recessions

24.56
25.00

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E

Source: BSP, IBPAP

 Page / 16

Favorable
demographics
also helps

Source: PopulationPyramid.net
 Page / 17

Selected Balance Sheet Measures*

Strong, liquid Bank CAR CET1 NPL NPL Cover LDR

banking sector BDO 14.9% 13.8% 1.9% 152.0% 80.9%

BPI 16.2% 15.3% 1.8% 156.0% 82.0%

CHIB 16.1% 15.3% 2.5% 104.0% 65.1%

EW 13.8% 13.0% 5.5% NA 83.2%

MBT 18.3% 17.4% 1.7% 180.0% 64.5%

PNB 15.5% 14.7% 6.3% 88.5% 66.5%

SECB 16.2% 15.3% 3.4% 82.0% 88.8%

UBP 15.7% 13.9% 6.3% 55.0% 73.8%

RCB 17.4% 14.7% 3.3% 89.6% 67.9%

*As of end 2023

Source: Listed Banks, COL estimates
 Page / 18

Selected Liquidity and Leverage Ratios*

Listed companies Company Current Ratio

Net Debt/
Equity Ratio
EBITDA/ Interest
Expense Ratio

not over Holding Co

AC 1.6 0.8 3.1

leveraged AEV
AGI
2.2
2.4
0.7
0.4
2.6
3.8
DMC 2.8 0.1 45.2
FPH 1.7 0.3 6.0
GTCAP 1.5 0.5 6.8
JGS 1.0 0.7 4.8
SM 1.1 0.3 6.9
Power
ACEN 3.6 0.2 2.4
AP 1.8 0.9 3.2
FGEN 1.5 0.2 8.1
MER 0.7 0.1 10.3
SCC 2.4 -0.2 61.1
*As of end 2023
Source: Listed Cos, COL estimates
 Selected Liquidity and Leverage Ratios* Page / 19

Net Debt/ Equity EBITDA/ Interest

Listed companies
Company Current Ratio Ratio Expense Ratio

Consumer- Mfg

not over CNPF

COSCO
2.5
3.3
0.1
-0.1
17.8
7.7

leveraged DNL
EMI
1.2
3.1
0.7
0.2
6.7
9.2
MONDE 2.0 -0.2 2.0
URC 1.6 0.0 18.9
Consumer- Restaurants
JFC 1.1 1.0 6.2
MAXS 1.0 0.7 6.1
PIZZA 1.5 0.9 6.5
Consumer - Retailers
HOME 3.1 0.5 6.1
PGOLD 2.7 0.1 4.6
RRHI 1.2 0.4 5.3
SSI 2.4 -0.2 20.3
WLCON 2.2 0.4 11.7
*As of end 2023
Source: Listed Cos, COL estimates
 Selected Liquidity and Leverage Ratios* Page / 20

Net Debt/ Equity EBITDA/ Interest

Listed companies
Company Current Ratio Ratio Expense Ratio

Telcos

not over CNVRG 0.9 1.2 10.4

leveraged
GLO 0.6 2.8 7.3
TEL 0.4 2.2 7.2
Property
ALI 1.8 0.8 5.2
FLI 3.0 0.7 3.9
MEG 3.1 0.3 16.0
RLC 1.8 0.4 6.5
SMPH 1.3 0.9 5.0
VLL 1.9 0.8 2.0
Others
BLOOM 1.9 1.5 3.0
NIKL 2.4 -0.2 34.4
PLUS 1.1 -0.1 24.2
*As of end 2023
Source: Listed Cos, COL estimates
 Very attractive valuations
Page / 21

PSEi 10-Yr P/E Band

22.00

20.00

18.00

16.00

14.00

12.00 11.19
10.00

8.00
05/02/2014 05/02/2015 05/02/2016 05/02/2017 05/02/2018 05/02/2019 05/02/2020 05/02/2021 05/02/2022 05/02/2023
PSEi P/E Mean +1 std -1 std

Source: Bloomberg
 Very attractive valuations
Page / 22

PSEi Index Stocks’ Standard Deviation from 10-Yr Historical Ave P/E Ratio

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0

-2.5

-3.0

Source: Bloomberg
 Page / 23

Listed Cos with Significant Share Buyback

and/or Insider Buying*

Abundant share Share Buyback Insider Buying

buyback & Holding Co

AC X
insider buying AEV
AGI
X
X
X
X
DMC X
FPH X
Power
AP X X
SCC X
Consumer
COSCO X
MONDE X
RRHI X
SSI X
URC X X
*In 2023
Source: PSE disclosures
 Page / 24

Listed Cos with Significant Share Buyback

and/or Insider Buying*

Abundant share Share Buyback Insider Buying

buyback & Property

insider buying
ALI X X
RLC X
MEG X X
Banks
BPI X
CHIB X
EW X
UBP X
Others
BLOOM X
NIKL X

*In 2023
Source: PSE disclosures
 Diminishing
value turnover
10,000.0
12,000.0

0.0
2,000.0
4,000.0
6,000.0
8,000.0

8,015.5
7,399.9
7,018.9
6,515.5
6,676.6
6,509.9
6,262.7
10,089.0
10,989.7
6,928.7
7,427.4
10,711.9
8,130.1
6,908.5
6,470.9
7,749.3
PSE Ave Daily Value T/O (Php Mil)

7,682.2
6,220.6
5,712.4
4,492.6
Source: PSE, Bloomberg

5,334.01
Page / 25
 Page / 26

Recommended sectors
Defensive sectors
• Power
• Telcos
• Utilities
Big 3 banks
• Size leads to lower funding costs
• Reaping the benefits of prudent lending practices in the past
• Strong profit growth, healthy balance sheet
Selected stocks from more cyclical sectors that are too cheap to ignore
• Have more defensive businesses despite belonging to a cyclical sector
• Trading at more than 1 std dev below historical average P/E
 Page / 27

COLing the Shots stock picks

Div
Buy P/BV
Sector Stock Price FV Upside P/E 24E Yield
Below 24E
24E
AREIT 33.95 6.4%
REITs
CREIT 2.84 6.7%
AP 37.30 51.80 38.9% 45.00 9.69 1.29 6.2%
Power
MER 374.00 471.70 26.1% 410.00 12.68 2.33 4.8%
SM 944.50 1,161.00 22.9% 1,009.00 13.63 2.00 1.1%
Holding Co
GTCAP 639.00 955.00 49.5% 795.00 5.08 0.52 1.3%
Banks MBT 71.50 87.00 21.7% 75.6 7.04 0.82 4.9%
ALI 26.80 40.50 51.1% 35.20 17.52 1.33 0.8%
Property RLC 15.75 26.20 66.3% 20.90 6.94 0.51 3.5%
SMPH 27.35 43.20 58.0% 36.00 17.53 1.78 1.6%
URC 106.80 150.00 40.4% 130.00 15.96 1.84 3.7%
Consumer
MONDE 11.16 11.90 6.6% 10.30 22.78 2.16 1.1%
Telcos TEL 1,346.00 1,720.00 27.8% 1,433.00 8.63 2.36 6.9%
 Page / 28

Risks
• Disappointing economic data
• Higher than expected inflation
• Weaker than expected GDP growth
• Disappointing earnings results
• US falls into a recession and bear market, PH suffers from
contagion
 Page / 36

Important Notice
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 Page / 37

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COLing the Shots I De Ja Vu Tuesday, 07 May 2024

Important Rating Definitions COL Research Team

BUY April Lynn Tan, CFA

Stocks that have a BUY rating have attractive fundamentals and valuations based on our First Vice President & Chief Equity Strategist
analysis. We expect the share price to outperform the market in the next six to 12 months. [email protected]

HOLD Charles William Ang, CFA

Stocks that have a HOLD rating have either 1) attractive fundamentals but expensive AVP & Head of Research
[email protected]
valuations 2) attractive valuations but near-term earnings outlook might be poor or vulnerable
to numerous risks. Given the said factors, the share price of the stock may perform merely in
George Ching
line or underperform in the market in the next six to twelve months.
Senior Research Manager
[email protected]
SELL
We dislike both the valuations and fundamentals of stocks with a SELL rating. We expect the Richard Laneda, CFA
share price to underperform in the next six to12 months. Senior Research Manager
[email protected]

Important Disclaimer Denise Joaquin

Research Analyst
Securities recommended, offered or sold by COL Financial Group, Inc. are subject to investment [email protected]
risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Although information has
been obtained from and is based upon sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee Charmaine Co
its accuracy and said information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates Research Analyst
[email protected]
constitute the judgment of COL’s Equity Research Department as of the date of the report and
are subject to change without prior notice. This report is for informational purposes only and
Paolo Miguel Manansala
is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. COL Financial
Research Analyst
and/or its employees not involved in the preparation of this report may have investments in
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securities of derivatives of the companies mentioned in this report and may trade them in
ways different from those discussed in this report.

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