India Daily

June 03, 2025 NIFTY50 [Jun 02]: 24,717

Contents

Daily Alerts
Results
Vodafone Idea: Living on the edge
Company Alerts
TCS: TCS AR analysis: A few interesting elements
Premier Energies: Investor day: Evolving into integrated cleantech manufacturer
Sector Alerts
Automobiles & Components: A mixed bag
Banks: Households continue to trail in deposit growth contribution
Electric Utilities: Distorted weather patterns impacting demand

Private Circulation Only.

This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities A ct of 1933
 RESULT

Vodafone Idea (IDEA) SELL

Telecommunication Services
CMP(₹): 7 Fair Value(₹): 6 Sector View: Attractive NIFTY-50: 24,717 June 02, 2025

Living on the edge Company data and valuation summary

VI’s reported EBITDA came in above our estimates, mainly due to lower Stock data
subscriber losses. However, market share loss continues, despite a pickup in
CMP(Rs)/FV(Rs)/Rating 7/6/SELL
network capex. After the recent equity conversion by the GoI, further network
52-week range (Rs) (high-low) 19-6
rollout plans remain constrained by debt funding—in turn, constrained by
Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 762/8.9
limited visibility on AGR due relief. At the current juncture, Vi is akin to a
ADTV-3M (mn) (Rs/US$) 4,798/56.2
binary option, with two extreme outcomes, depending on government support
(or lack thereof). We await signs of (1) subscriber base stabilization and (2) Shareholding pattern (%)
fund raises to meet the funding gap to turn constructive. Maintain SELL.

4QFY25 margins beat on lower subs loss 28.5

38.8
Vi’s 4QFY25 wireless revenue declined 0.9% qoq (versus +1.3%/+2.4% qoq for
Bharti/Jio) and was ahead of our estimates on lower subscriber losses and
17.8
marginally higher ARPU (+0.6% qoq, KIE: Rs163). Subscriber declines, at 1.6 mn
4.5 10.1
0.4
in 4QFY25 (5.2 mn in 3QFY25), decelerated, indicating largely complete SIM
consolidation for the industry and/or Vi’s improved network performance. Promoters FPIs MFs BFI s Retail Others

Reported EBITDA, at Rs46.6 bn (+7.5% yoy, (-)1.1% qoq), was consequently

Private Circulation Only. This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities A ct of 1933
Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
ahead of our estimates. Pre-Ind AS EBITDA decreased 5.3% qoq to Rs23.2 bn,
Absolute (0) (7) (54)
above our estimates of Rs22.8 bn. Rel. to Nifty (2) (19) (64)
Rel. to MSCI India (3) (20) (61)
Among three private telcos, Vi lost a further 32 bps qoq subscriber market share
(R-Jio: +12 bps, Bharti: +20 bps qoq). Similarly, Vi lost a 35 bps qoq revenue Forecasts/Valuations 2025 2026E 2027E
market share, with Bharti gaining 5 bps qoq (R-Jio: +31 bps). Vi’s customer EPS (Rs) (3.8) (2.2) (2.1)

engagement metrics improved versus peers, with data volume up 5.2% qoq EPS growth (%) 39.9 41.4 4.7

(+4.5-5.2% for peers) due to 5G rollouts. Voice usage increased marginally by P/E (X) (1.8) (3.1) (3.3)

0.8% qoq (versus 0.2%/1.1% qoq for Bharti/Jio). Monthly churn rate declined 40 P/B (X) (0.7) (0.8) (0.6)
EV/EBITDA (X) 16.7 15.5 13.5
bps for Vi to 4.1% ((-)18 bps/(-)20 bps for Bharti/Jio).
RoE (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0

Next leg of capex contingent on bank debt Div. yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sales (Rs bn) 436 461 515
Vi has incurred a capex of Rs95.7 bn in FY2025 due to equity raise of ~Rs260
EBITDA (Rs bn) 181 194 230
bn since March 2024 from promoters, FPO proceeds and key vendors. The
Net profits (Rs bn) (274) (243) (232)
conversion of spectrum debt to equity by the GoI of Rs~Rs370 bn has further
reinforced government support for a 3+1 player telecom market. Management Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

expects a 4G population coverage target of 90%+ to be achieved only after a Prices in this report are based on the market close of
June 02, 2025
successful debt raise from banks. We believe bank financing could remain
elusive, if there is no reprieve on the AGR front, in the absence of which, a further
equity raise becomes the only way forward. The company remains engaged
with lenders on debt raise plans, which remains a key monitorable.

We trim earnings; maintain SELL

We trim our EBITDA by 1.9%/4.0%, mainly led by a 3-4% lower subscriber base
for FY2026E/27E. Our DCF-based FV reduces to Rs6 (from Rs7), factoring in
lower earnings and equity dilution. Vi remains a high-risk, high-reward play, with
LT revival contingent on continued GoI support and moderation in competitive
intensity. We maintain SELL, pending signs of Vi’s subscriber base stabilizing
and clarity on potential relief measures.
Full sector coverage on KINSITE

Sumangal Nevatia Siddharth Mehrotra Keshav Kumar

 3

Key takeaways from Vi’s earnings call

ARPU. Customer ARPU (ex M2M) for 4QFY25 stood at Rs175 (Rs173 in 3QFY25, +1.2% qoq).
 Higher pricing for higher data usage would be optimal for tariff repair, according to Vi.

Subscriber churn. Blended churn stood at 4.1% for 4QFY25 ((-)40 bps qoq).
 Vi witnessed a net loss in TRAI subs in 13 out of 22 regions for 4QFY25 versus 3QFY25 exits.

Cost optimization. Vi has undertaken cost optimization efforts to limit network opex, energy costs
and rental costs through (1) the negotiation of rental costs, (2) in-sourcing of fiber management and
(3) the negotiation of IT costs. Full flow-through of cost optimization to take place by 1QFY26E.

 Management expects energy and rental costs to be impacted by 5G rollouts in 1QFY26, which
should be largely offset by lower rentals per site.

Capex: Capex for 4QFY25/FY2025 stood at Rs42.3/95.7 bn, led by ~7k unique broadband tower
deployment, 4G capacity expansion and 5G rollout in key cities. Capex guidance for 1HFY26 is Rs50-
60 bn.

 Key focus areas for capex include (1) increasing 4G coverage, (2) boosting 4G capacity and (3) the
selective rollout of 5G.

 Vi has increased the 4G data capacity by ~31%, 4G population coverage by 73 mn (1.1 bn in

4QFY25) and 4G speeds by ~28% over FY2025.

 The company targets the 4G population coverage to reach 84-85% (82.7%, as of 4QFY25) by
1HFY26. The company expects the 4G tower count to reach 220k (185k in 4QFY25) for 90% 4G
population coverage (1.2 bn).

 90% 4G coverage is contingent on the company’s fund raise. Vi expects maximum coverage to
reach ~85% levels without any funding requirements.

 Vi rolled out 5G services in Mumbai, Delhi, Chandigarh and Patna, and plans to expand the services
in 17 more cities by August 2025.

Spectrum debt conversion. Management believes government action in waiving BG and converting
spectrum dues payable into equity to be an indication of its support to Vi.

 Vi issued 36.95 bn shares at an FV of Rs10/share to the GoI, increasing the stake of the GoI to 49%
from 22.6%. Promoters’ stake diluted to 25.6%, after the issue from 38.8%, while they continue to
hold operational control over the company.

Equity raise. An aggregate fund raise of Rs369 bn to the GoI after this allotment takes the total equity
raise during the year to ~Rs614 bn through a combination of FPO (~Rs180 bn), promoter infusion
(~Rs40 bn), equity to key vendors (~Rs25 bn) and GoI.

 Equity funding. Vi allotted ~1.7 bn equity shares in January 2025 to Vodafone Group on a
preferential basis at Rs11.28/share.

 An aggregate fund raise of Rs19.1 bn to Vodafone Group after this allotment takes the total equity
raise since March 2024 to ~Rs630 bn through the combination of FPO (~Rs180 bn), promoter
infusion (~Rs40 bn), equity to key vendors (~Rs40 bn) and GoI dues conversion (~Rs370 bn).

Spectrum and AGR dues: Annual installments after a moratorium period for AGR are likely to be
~Rs164 bn. The revised spectrum installment after spectrum dues conversion for FY2026/27E is
estimated at ~Rs25/70 bn.

Net debt. Net debt (ex-lease liabilities) stood at ~Rs1.87 tn, as of 4QFY25 (~Rs2.18 tn, as of 3QFY25),
and was lower due to equity conversion for spectrum dues payable to the GoI.

 External debt (from banks and financial institutions) stood at Rs23.5 bn, while the balance was in
the form of AGR dues (~Rs 759 bn) and spectrum payables (Rs1.2 tn). Cash and equivalents stood
at ~Rs99 bn.

Vodafone Idea
Telecommunication Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 4

Board approval. The Board passed an enabling resolution for fund raise of up to Rs200 bn and
authorized the Capital Raising Committee to evaluate potential routes of funding (including FPO,
private placements, GDR, ADR, bonds and debentures).

Contingent recoverable. Vi has extended the date for receipt of certain dues from erstwhile Vodafone
India (VInL) to Sep 2025.

 Under the Implementation Agreement (IA), Vi can claim up to ~Rs64 bn from VInL should it
discharge a part of AGR dues by June 2025.

Vi’s 4QFY25 was ahead of our estimates on lower subscriber losses

Interim consolidated results of Vodafone Idea, March fiscal year-ends (Rs mn)
(% chg.)
4QFY25 4QFY25E 4QFY24 3QFY25 KIE yoy qoq FY2025 FY2024 (% chg.) FY2026E (% chg.)
Revenues 110,135 108,995 106,068 111,173 1.0 3.8 (0.9) 435,713 426,517 2.2 461,251 5.9
Interconnection costs (11,961) (10,808) (10,624) (11,808) 10.7 12.6 1.3 (45,974) (41,177) 11.6 (48,844) 6.2
License fee and spectrum charges (9,283) (9,210) (9,044) (9,443) 0.8 2.6 (1.7) (36,962) (36,726) 0.6 (38,976) 5.4
Network operating costs (23,255) (24,770) (23,648) (23,635) (6.1) (1.7) (1.6) (94,391) (98,104) (3.8) (99,246) 5.1
Employee costs (5,495) (5,767) (5,441) (5,493) (4.7) 1.0 0.0 (22,309) (21,224) 5.1 (23,589) 5.7
SG&A expenses (13,544) (13,255) (13,953) (13,670) 2.2 (2.9) (0.9) (54,811) (58,026) (5.5) (56,455) 3.0
Total costs (63,538) (63,811) (62,710) (64,049) (0.4) 1.3 (0.8) (254,447) (255,257) (0.3) (267,110) 5.0
EBITDA 46,597 45,184 43,358 47,124 3.1 7.5 (1.1) 181,266 171,260 5.8 194,142 7.1
EBITDA margin (%) 42.3 41.5 40.9 42.4 85 bps 143 bps (8)bps 41.6 40.2 145 bps 42.1 49 bps
Ind-AS adjusted EBITDA 23,207 22,784 21,797 24,500 1.9 6.5 (5.3) 91,907 83,998 9.4 100,540 9.4
Ind-AS adjusted EBITDA margin (%) 21.1 20.9 20.6 22.0 17 bps 52 bps (97)bps 21.1 19.7 140 bps 21.8 70 bps
D&A (55,713) (56,704) (57,513) (56,288) (1.7) (3.1) (1.0) (219,732) (226,335) (2.9) (229,063) 4.2
EBIT (9,116) (11,520) (14,155) (9,164) 20.9 35.6 0.5 (38,466) (55,075) 30.2 (34,921) (9.2)
Net interest income/(expense) (62,565) (63,136) (62,478) (56,904) (0.9) 0.1 9.9 (235,228) (256,523) (8.3) (208,477) (11.4)
PBT (71,681) (74,656) (76,633) (66,068) 4.0 6.5 (8.5) (273,694) (311,598) 12.2 (243,398) (11.1)
Taxes — — (87) (25) (158) (8,286) —
MI and share of associates 20 — (26) — 18 (55) —
PAT (71,661) (74,656) (76,746) (66,093) 4.0 6.6 (8.4) (273,834) (319,939) 14.4 (243,398) (11.1)
Extraordinaries — — — — — 7,555 —
Reported net income (71,661) (74,656) (76,746) (66,093) 4.0 6.6 (8.4) (273,834) (312,384) 12.3 (243,398) (11.1)
Key performance indicators
Subscriber base (EoP) (mn) 198.2 196.3 212.6 199.8 1.0 (6.8) (0.8) 198.2 212.6 (6.8) 193.7 (2.3)
Net adds/(declines) (mn) (1.6) (3.5) (2.6) (5.2) (54.3) (38.5) (69.2) (14) (13) (5)
Data subscribers (EoP) (mn) 134.1 135.2 137.3 134.2 (0.8) (2.3) (0.1) 134 137 (2.3) 139 3.4
Reported ARPU (Rs/month) 164 163 146 163 0.9 12.3 0.6 157 143 9.9 176 11.9
Total minutes of use (bn) 357 364 402 360 (1.8) (11.2) (0.8) 1,467 1,629 (9.9) 1,464 (0.2)
Average MoU (min/month) 598 612 627 593 (2.3) (4.6) 0.8 595 619 (3.9) 623 4.6
Data volume (Petabyte) 6,166 5,947 6,049 5,859 3.7 1.9 5.2 24,128 24,174 (0.2) 25,729 6.6
Implied data usage (GB/month) 15.3 14.7 14.7 14.5 4.1 4.4 5.6 14.8 14.7 0.6 15.7 6.1
Wireless revenue 97,908 96,574 93,688 98,974 1.4 4.5 (1.1) 386,586 375,538 2.9 412,708 6.8
Enterprise revenue 11,575 12,271 12,049 12,030 (5.7) (3.9) (3.8) 47,951 50,011 (4.1) 47,944 (0.0)
Other operating revenue 652 150 331 169 334.7 97.0 285.8 1,176 968 21.5 600 (49.0)
Debt and capex (Rs bn)
Gross debt 1,972.6 2,349.3 2,156.3 2,296.5 (16) (8.5) (14.1) 1,973 2,156 (8.5) 2,117 7.3
GoI debt 1,949.1 2,330.0 2,114.3 2,273.2 (16.3) (7.8) (14.3) 1,949 2,114 (7.8) 2,110 8.2
Spectrum debt 1,190 1,411 1,570 (15.7) (24.2) 1,190 1,411 (15.7)
AGR dues 759 703 703 8.0 8.0 759 703 8.0
External debt 23.5 19.3 42.0 23.3 21.5 (44.2) 0.6 23 42 7
Cash and equivalents 99.3 1.7 120.9 5,741 (17.9) 99 2
Net debt 1,873 2,155 2,176 (13.1) (13.9) 1,873 2,155 (13.1)
Capex 42.3 38.1 5.5 32.1 10.9 669.5 31.8 95.7 18.5 417.2 94.3 (1.4)

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Vodafone Idea
Telecommunication Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 5

4QFY25: ARPU marginally higher, subs net losses near multi-quarter low
Key performance indicators, 4QFY22 onward
4QFY22 1QFY23 2QFY23 3QFY23 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 4QFY25
Key performance indicators
Paying subscriber base (EoP) (mn) 243.8 240.4 234.4 228.6 225.9 221.4 219.8 215.2 212.6 210.1 205.0 199.8 198.2
Paying net adds (mn) (3.4) (3.4) (6.0) (5.8) (2.7) (4.5) (1.6) (4.6) (2.6) (2.5) (5.1) (5.2) (1.6)
VLR subscribers (EoP) (mn) 226.1 218.7 212.2 209.6 207.9 202.7 199.8 196.7 193.3 188.3 179.5 176.5 175.3
Net VLR subscriber addition (mn) (3.4) (7.4) (6.5) (2.6) (1.7) (5.1) (3.0) (3.1) (3.4) (5.0) (8.7) (3.0) (1.2)
Pre-paid subscribers (% of EoP subscribers) 91.8 91.6 91.1 90.4 90.1 89.7 89.5 89.0 88.8 88.5 88.0 87.4 87.1
Total data subscribers (2G+3G+4G) (mn) 135.7 135.7 135.2 135.3 136.2 135.9 137.2 137.4 137.3 136.9 134.9 134.2 134.1
4G subscribers (mn) 118.1 119.0 120.6 121.6 122.6 122.9 124.7 125.6 126.3 126.7 125.9 126.0 126.4
Blended monthly churn rate (%) 3.4 3.5 4.3 4.4 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.3 3.9 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.1
Blended ARPU (Rs/month) 124 128 131 135 135 139 142 145 146 146 156 163 164
Total data volume (2G+3G+4G) (bn MB) 5,237 5,425 5,718 5,762 5,802 6,002 6,119 6,004 6,049 6,111 5,992 5,859 6,166
Data usage by data subscribers (2G+3G+4G)
12,859 13,326 14,072 14,201 14,247 14,705 14,937 14,576 14,680 14,858 14,697 14,515 15,321
(MB/month)
Voice traffic (bn min) 452 450 428 424 425 420 406 401 402 385 365 360 357
Average MoU (min/subscriber/month) 614 620 601 611 623 626 613 615 626 607 586 593 598
Total unique towers (EoP) 184,794 184,607 184,756 184,403 184,382 183,638 183,565 183,358 183,758 183,323 184,245 187,708 195,284
Total unique broadband towers (EoP) 169,016 169,153 169,771 169,805 170,359 170,411 170,423 170,351 170,530 170,813 172,103 176,133 184,644
Total broadband sites (3G+4G) 455,264 454,727 444,228 443,450 443,537 442,062 440,467 438,901 430,705 417,245 439,599 460,250 494,596

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Vi’s leverage reduced qoq on spectrum dues conversion but remains elevated
Vi’s gross debt, cash, net debt and capex trends (Rs bn), March fiscal year-ends, March 2020 onward
Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21 Mar-22 Sep-22 Mar-23 Sep-23 Mar-24 Sep-24 Mar-25
Debt and capex trends
Gross debt 1,150 1,159 1,803 1,948 1,979 2,203 2,093 2,128 2,156 2,257 1,973
External debt 274 236 231 228 181 151 114 79 40 33 23
OCD issuance to ATC 16 16 2 — —
GoI debt 877 923 1,572 1,720 1,798 2,052 1,963 2,033 2,114 2,225 1,949
Deferred spectrum liabilities 876.5 923 963 1,086 1,139 1,367 1,307 1,351 1,411 1,522 1,246
AGR dues 0 — 610 634 660 686 656 682 703 703 703
Cash and equivalents 24.8 14 4 3 15 2 2 1 2 136 99
Net debt 1,125 1,145 1,800 1,945 1,964 2,201 2,090 2,127 2,155 2,121 1,873
Net debt (ex-leases) to annualized
16 18 26 34 25 26 25 26 25 23 20
Ind-AS adjusted EBITDA
Capex 18.2 10.4 15.4 13.0 12.1 12.1 5.6 5.2 5.5 13.6 42.3
as % of revenue 15.5 9.6 16.0 13.8 11.8 11.4 5.3 4.9 5.2 12.4 38.4

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Vodafone Idea
Telecommunication Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 6

Vi’s requires ~Rs200 bn additional funds for meeting debt repayments in FY2026E
Vi's cash shortfall and incremental revenue/ARPU uptick requirements
FY2026E FY2027E FY2028E
Vi incremental revenue ask-rate (Rs bn)
Debt repayments 206 243 322
Interest payments on external loans 3 1 0
Capex 94 103 114
Cash requirements 303 346 436
Ind-AS EBITDA 101 129 160
Cash shortfall 203 217 276
Incremental revenue requirement 312 334 424
EoP subscriber base (mn) 194 194 196
Incremental ARPU requirement (Rs /month) 134 144 181
ARPU (Rs /month) 176 199 221
Required ARPU (Rs /month) 310 343 402
Required ARPU uptick (%) 76 72 82

Notes:
(a) Assumed 65% incremental margins

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Vi would require further relief measures from the GoI and sharper tariff hikes for LT revival
Summary of potential relief options for Vi’s long-term revival along with their probability and impact
Relief options Probability / Status Dependent upon Impact
EBITDA likely to increase if high subscriber churn is averted. However, peers likely to gain
Sharper tariff hike High Telcos
more in absolute revenue/EBITDA increases from tariff hikes
Cost savings to boost EBITDA. But, peers likely to gain more, given their higher revenue
License Fee cut Low DoT
base
AGR dues re-computation / waiver Medium GoI VI and Bharti both would gain from lower AGR dues. Vi likely biggest gainer
Extension of moratorium on GoI dues High GoI Near term cashflow cushion but leads to ballooning of debt and annual repayments.
Near term cashflow cushion but leads to higher debt and annual repayments. VI would
Deferred spectrum moratorium /
High GoI tide over near term solvency risk, Bharti / R-Jio could deploy cashflow savings on 5G
extension of time period
rollout
Lowers the future accrued interest and annual repayments. All three telcos would benefit.
Spectrum DPL interest rate cut Low GoI
Vi likely to be the biggest beneficiary
Surrendering spectrum in low priority circles could help VI conserve cash and increase
Surrender of unused spectrum Medium DoT / GoI
focus on priority circles. But, we don't think it will bring in significant cost savings for VI
VI's promoters, lenders, Vi would face cash shortfall starting in 2HFY26E and would need further debt / equity
Further equity / debt raise High
potential investors raise
An amnesty scheme to settle long-standing litigations can be a positive for all
Amnesty scheme to settle litigations Medium DoT
stakeholders
Strategic investor replacing existing VI promoters, lenders, Strategic investor with deep pockets and willingness to revive Vi can help. But, could be
Low
promoter potential investors, GoI possible only with write-off of existing GoI dues in our view
Vi would likely opt for further equity conversion for deferred portion of GoI's AGR and DPL.
GoI equity stake conversion Low GoI
However, GoI appears unlikely to further raise stake as it would cross majority holding

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Vodafone Idea
Telecommunication Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 7

Jio/Bharti are the biggest gainers on RMS/SMS during 4QFY25

Comparison of private telcos on key operational and financial parameters, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-25

Notes:
(a) R-Jio (ex-FTTH) metrics are KIE estimates

Source: Companies, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Vodafone Idea
Telecommunication Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 8

Wireless churn reduced qoq for all three telcos in 4QFY25; data volume growth robust at ~5% qoq
Comparison of telcos across other key metrics, March fiscal year-ends
FY2020-
Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 qoq yoy FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 yoy 25 CAGR
Voice traffic (bn min)
Bharti 1,124 1,149 1,148 1,161 1,210 1,195 1,200 1,233 1,254 1.7 3.6 3,035 3,603 4,104 4,348 4,667 4,882 4.6 10.0
Vodafone Idea 425 420 406 401 402 385 365 360 357 (0.8) (11.2) 2,547 2,210 1,901 1,727 1,629 1,467 (9.9) (10.4)
R-Jio (inc. FTTH) 1,313 1,335 1,334 1,370 1,440 1,420 1,420 1,460 1,490 2.1 3.5 3,301 3,835 4,500 5,059 5,479 5,790 5.7 11.9
Minutes of Usage (min/month/sub)
Bharti 1,122 1,138 1,123 1,127 1,158 1,128 1,135 1,160 1,163 0.2 0.4 893 992 1,056 1,096 1,131 1,140 0.8 5.0
Vodafone Idea 623 627 613 614 627 607 587 593 598 0.8 (4.6) 679 659 619 613 619 595 (3.9) (2.6)
R-Jio (inc. FTTH) 1,004 1,002 979 981 1,008 974 977 1,013 1,024 1.1 1.6 793 786 897 993 991 995 0.3 4.7
Data traffic (bn MB)
Bharti 14,248 15,273 16,127 16,770 17,808 19,240 19,775 20,659 21,584 4.5 21.2 21,020 32,541 45,203 54,148 65,978 81,257 23.2 31.1
Vodafone Idea 5,802 6,002 6,119 6,004 6,049 6,111 5,992 5,859 6,166 5.2 1.9 14,594 18,208 21,493 22,707 24,174 24,128 (0.2) 10.6
R-Jio (inc. FTTH) 31,007 33,997 37,171 39,014 41,882 45,158 46,080 47,616 50,074 5.2 19.6 49,603 63,990 93,570 116,081 152,064 188,928 24.2 30.7
Data subs (mn)
Bharti 233 238 246 253 261 267 271 278 281 1.3 7.8 148.6 188.6 208.4 232.7 260.8 281.2 7.8 13.6
Vodafone Idea 136 136 137 137 137 137 135 134 134 (0.1) (2.3) 139.5 139.9 135.7 136.2 137.3 134.1 (2.3) (0.8)
R-Jio (inc. FTTH) 439 449 460 471 482 490 479 482 488 1.3 1.3 387.5 426.2 410.2 439.3 481.8 488.2 1.3 4.7
Data usage per data sub (MB/month)
Bharti 20,741 21,623 22,208 22,402 23,097 24,294 24,491 25,097 25,750 2.6 11.5 13,284 16,083 18,973 20,458 22,281 24,984 12.1 13.5
Vodafone Idea 14,247 14,705 14,937 14,576 14,680 14,858 14,697 14,515 15,321 5.6 4.4 8,511 10,861 12,998 13,919 14,731 14,817 0.6 11.7
R-Jio (inc. FTTH) 23,700 25,529 27,286 27,949 29,307 30,989 31,719 33,036 34,404 4.1 17.4 11,909 13,107 18,645 22,774 27,515 32,462 18.0 22.2
Blended churn (% per month)
Bharti 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.4 2.8 3.2 2.5 2.3 (18)bps (6)bps 2.5 2.0 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.5 (22)bps 3 bps
Vodafone Idea 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.3 3.9 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.1 (40)bps 20 bps 3.4 2.4 3.3 4.0 4.0 3.9 (11)bps 49 bps
R-Jio (inc. FTTH) 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.7 3.1 2.0 1.8 (20)bps 30 bps 1.1 1.2 2.7 2.2 1.7 2.0 33 bps 89 bps

Notes:
(a) R-Jio’s data usage and per sub data usage metrics are boosted by contribution from FTTH

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Key changes to Vi’s model, March fiscal year-ends, 2026-28E (Rs bn)
New estimates Old estimates Change (%)
FY2026E FY2027E FY2028E FY2026E FY2027E FY2026E FY2027E
Revenues 461 515 571 470 530 (1.9) (2.8)
EBITDA 194 230 269 198 240 (1.9) (4.0)
Ind-AS adjusted EBITDA 101 129 160 103 139 (2.8) (7.1)
EBIT (35) (10) 18 (12) 25 202.4 (138.2)
PAT (243) (232) (219) (280) (251) 13.2 7.5
Recurring EPS (Rs/share) (2.2) (2.1) (2.0) (3.6) (2.8) 37.9 24.2
EoP subscribers (mn) 194 194 196 200 202 (3.1) (4.0)
ARPU (Rs/sub/month) 176 199 221 175 197 0.3 1.1
EBITDA margins (%) 42.1 44.7 47.1 42.1 45.3 -4 bps -53 bps

Source: Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Vodafone Idea
Telecommunication Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 9

Key assumptions for Vi’s wireless business, March fiscal year-ends, 2020-28E
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E
Key assumptions
Paying subscriber base (EoP) (mn) 291 268 244 226 213 198 194 194 196
Paying net adds (mn) (43.0) (23.3) (24.0) (17.9) (13.3) (14.4) (4.5) 0.0 2.0
VLR subscribers (EoP) (mn) 293.7 255.7 226.1 207.9 193.3 175.3 177.8 177.2 177.2
Net VLR subscriber addition (mn) (74.6) (38.0) (29.6) (18.2) (14.6) (17.9) 2.4 (0.6) -
Pre-paid subscribers (% of EoP subscribers) 92.1 92.2 91.8 90.1 88.8 87.1 87.1 86.3 86.3
Total data subscribers (2G+3G+4G) (mn) 140 140 136 136 137 134 139 143 148
4G subscribers (mn) 105.6 113.9 118.1 122.6 126.3 126.4 132.4 138.4 144.4
Blended monthly churn rate (%)
Blended ARPU (Rs/month) 111 114 112 132 143 157 176 199 221
Total data volume (2G+3G+4G) (bn MB) 14,594 18,208 21,493 22,707 24,174 24,128 25,729 27,613 29,414
Data usage by data subscribers (2G+3G+4G)
8,511 10,861 12,998 13,919 14,731 14,817 15,719 16,320 16,835
(MB/month)
Voice traffic (bn min) 2,547 2,210 1,901 1,727 1,629 1,467 1,464 1,524 1,585
Average MoU (min/subscriber/month) 679 659 619 613 619 595 623 655 679
Total unique towers (EoP) 185,544 180,484 184,794 184,382 183,758 195,284 211,284 221,284 231,284
Total unique broadband towers (EoP) 162,380 165,409 169,016 170,359 170,530 184,644 209,171 221,284 231,284
Total broadband sites (3G+4G) 436,006 452,650 455,264 443,537 430,705 494,596 550,120 581,977 608,277

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

We ascribe an FV of Rs6 (earlier Rs7) to Vodafone Idea in our base case

Calculation of Vodafone Idea’s FV using discounted cash flow analysis in base case, March fiscal year-ends (Rs bn,
Rs/share)
2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E 2034E 2035E 2036E
Assumptions
Paying subscriber base (mn) 213 198 194 194 196 197 198 199 200 201 202
Net adds (13.3) (14.4) (4.5) 0.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
ARPU (Rs/month) 143 157 176 199 221 230 238 245 251 256 260
yoy 8.1 9.9 11.9 13.5 10.8 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5
DCF model
Wireless EBITDA 171 181 194 230 265 281 295 308 319 329 337
Adjusted tax expense — — — — — — — — — — —
Change in working capital 0 1 2 4 5 2 2 2 2 2 1
Operating cash flow 172 182 196 235 270 283 297 310 321 330 338
Capital expenditure (19) (96) (94) (103) (78) (76) (73) (76) (78) (81) (82)
Free cash flow 153 86 102 132 192 207 224 234 242 249 255 264 273
Discounted cash flow-now 86 91 106 138 134 130 122 113 104 96
Discounted cash flow-1 year forward 102 118 154 149 145 136 126 116 107 99
Discounted cash flow-2 year forward 132 172 167 161 151 141 130 119 111 103

Now +1-year +2-years

Discount rate (%) 11.5% 11.5% 11.5%
Total PV of free cash flow 1,120 1,252 1,385
Terminal value assumption
Growth in perpetuity 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% Sensitivity of 12-month fair value to WACC and perpetual growth
FCF in terminal year 255 264 273 Perpetual growth (%)
Exit FCF multiple (X) 12.9 12.9 12.9 6 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% 5.5%
Exit EV/EBITDA multiple (X) 9.8 10.2 10.5 10.5% 4.2 5.7 7.7 10.4 14.1
WACC (%)

Terminal value 3,303 3,419 3,538 11.0% 3.6 5.0 6.8 9.1 12.3
PV of terminal value 1,239 1,283 1,328 11.5% 3.1 4.4 6.0 8.0 10.7
Value of Vi's wireless biz 2,360 2,535 2,713 12.0% 2.7 3.8 5.3 7.1 9.4
Implied EV/EBITDA 13.0 13.1 11.8 12.5% 2.3 3.3 4.6 6.2 8.3
Enterprise value (Rs bn) 2,360 2,535 2,713
Net debt including leases 1,873 1,968 2,065
Implied equity value (Rs bn) 487 567 648
Implied Fair Value (Rs/share) 4.5 5.2 6.0

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Vodafone Idea
Telecommunication Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 10

Summary financials for Vi, March fiscal year-ends, 2020-28E (Rs mn)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit and loss statement
Revenues 449,575 419,522 385,155 421,772 426,517 435,713 461,251 514,686 571,441
Total costs (301,598) (250,065) (224,794) (253,602) (255,257) (254,447) (267,110) (284,459) (302,192)
Total costs ex-IC, ex-LF/SUC (193,140) (155,864) (153,651) (174,590) (177,354) (171,511) (179,290) (190,524) (201,861)
EBITDA 147,977 169,457 160,361 168,170 171,260 181,266 194,142 230,228 269,249
EBITDA margin (%) 32.9 40.4 41.6 39.9 40.2 41.6 42.1 44.7 47.1
Ind-AS 116 adjusted EBITDA (ex one-offs) 52,975 66,457 62,761 82,970 83,998 91,907 100,540 129,059 160,432
Ind-AS 116 adjusted EBITDA margin (%) 11.8 15.8 16.3 19.7 19.7 21.1 21.8 25.1 28.1
D&A (243,564) (236,385) (235,843) (230,497) (226,335) (219,732) (229,063) (239,840) (250,893)
EBIT (95,587) (66,928) (75,482) (62,327) (55,075) (38,466) (34,921) (9,612) 18,357
Net finance costs (142,379) (178,239) (208,514) (230,430) (256,523) (235,228) (208,477) (222,247) (237,600)
PBT (237,966) (245,167) (283,996) (292,757) (311,598) (273,694) (243,398) (231,859) (219,243)
Provision for taxes (120,811) 203 (113) (35) (8,286) (158) — — —
PAT before MI/associates (358,777) (244,964) (284,109) (292,792) (319,884) (273,852) (243,398) (231,859) (219,243)
MI + Associates 3,553 2,314 12 5 (55) 18 — — —
Recurring PAT (355,224) (242,650) (284,097) (292,787) (319,939) (273,834) (243,398) (231,859) (219,243)
EO items (383,557) (199,681) 1,643 (224) 7,555 — — — —
Reported PAT (738,781) (442,331) (282,454) (293,011) (312,384) (273,834) (243,398) (231,859) (219,243)
# of shares (mn) 28,735 28,735 32,119 48,680 50,120 71,393 108,343 108,343 108,343
EPS (Rs/share) (12.4) (8.4) (8.8) (6.0) (6.4) (3.8) (2.2) (2.1) (2.0)
Condensed balance sheet
Net fixed assets 1,868,780 1,680,900 1,571,425 1,565,555 1,407,636 1,437,912 1,303,194 1,166,291 1,029,687
Other LT assets 233,555 212,911 200,511 367,843 313,243 230,359 235,936 246,162 257,391
Current assets ex-cash 166,861 140,995 168,355 139,029 129,098 310,395 230,218 232,464 244,476
Total assets 2,269,196 2,034,806 1,940,291 2,072,427 1,849,977 1,978,666 1,769,348 1,644,917 1,531,554
Shareholders' equity 59,799 (382,280) (619,648) (743,591) (1,041,668) (703,202) (946,600) (1,178,459) (1,397,702)
Net debt 1,125,200 1,780,897 2,001,016 2,271,993 2,343,858 2,082,529 2,177,908 2,274,952 2,360,673
Other LT liabilities 126,407 (27,836) (52,416) (56,202) 6,374 43,200 (22,179) (44,223) (34,944)
Current liabilities 957,790 664,025 611,339 600,227 541,413 556,139 560,219 592,647 603,527
Total equity and liabilities 2,269,196 2,034,806 1,940,291 2,072,427 1,849,977 1,978,666 1,769,348 1,644,917 1,531,554
Condensed CF statement
Operating cash flow before working capital changes 165,730 170,842 177,277 182,412 201,836 185,462 194,142 230,228 269,249
Working capital changes (92,455) (14,445) (3,407) 6,275 6,425 (92,556) 13,301 (2,087) (3,082)
Net finance costs (152,585) (28,256) (150,535) (151,115) (189,804) (170,905) (208,477) (222,247) (237,600)
Cash flow from operations (79,310) 128,141 23,335 37,572 18,457 (77,999) (1,034) 5,894 28,567
Capex (83,640) (52,844) (61,124) (56,222) (20,622) (108,402) (94,345) (102,937) (114,288)
Free cash flow (post interest) (162,950) 75,297 (37,789) (18,650) (2,165) (186,401) (95,379) (97,044) (85,721)

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Vodafone Idea
Telecommunication Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 UPDATE

TCS (TCS) BUY

IT Services
CMP(₹): 3,450 Fair Value(₹): 3,800 Sector View: Neutral NIFTY-50: 24,717 June 02, 2025

TCS AR analysis: A few interesting elements Company data and valuation summary
Our analysis of the TCS annual report unpacks a few interesting elements— Stock data
(1) a significant revenue decline in a couple of subsidiaries (TCS E-Serve and
CMP(Rs)/FV(Rs)/Rating 3,450/3,800/BUY
TCS Technology Solutions GmBH, both driven by a sharp revenue decline in
52-week range (Rs) (high-low) 4,520-3,056
their respective top accounts), (2) continued strong growth in Diligenta, (3)
Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 12,482/146.2
continued deterioration in employee pyramid, with the percentage of
ADTV-3M (mn) (Rs/US$) 9,964/116.7
employees in the less-than-30-years’ age group at the lowest level over the
past six years across most geographies, (4) an increase in transactions with Shareholding pattern (%)
related parties, driven by BSNL and JLR mega deals, (5) a reduction in the
1.4
4.0
magnitude of the average wage increase for India employees in FY2025 and 5.8
5.0
(6) healthy revenue growth in the TCS Japan subsidiary. Retain a constructive
12.0
stance and BUY rating at an unchanged FV of Rs3,800.
71.8
Sharp revenue decline in TCS E-Serve International subsidiary
The TCS E-Serve subsidiary was formed when TCS acquired Citi’s India-based Promoters FPIs MFs BFIs Retail Others

captive BPO in FY2009. Revenue of the subsidiary declined 31% yoy to US$155
Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
mn in FY2025 (Exhibit 1). While the absolute revenue of the subsidiary is not Absolute 0 (1) (5)

Private Circulation Only. This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities A ct of 1933
significant in the context of overall TCS revenue, it is worth noting that the Rel. to Nifty (1) (13) (14)
revenue decline stems from a single client. The entire yoy revenue decline is Rel. to MSCI India (2) (14) (12)
driven by the top account revenue shrinking to US$27 mn from US$96 mn in the
Forecasts/Valuations 2025 2026E 2027E
prior year. The BFSI vertical revenue has declined by a similar amount. Revenue
EPS (Rs) 134.2 141.1 153.2
from the top account has reduced by US$107 mn in the past couple of years.
EPS growth (%) 3.5 5.1 8.6

Revenue decline in Technology Solutions GmBH subsidiary P/E (X) 25.7 24.5 22.5
P/B (X) 12.9 11.8 10.9
TCS Technology Solutions was part of the Deutsche Bank Group until the end
EV/EBITDA (X) 17.8 16.9 15.5
of 2020 and was acquired by TCS on January 1, 2021. Revenue of the subsidiary
RoE (%) 51.2 50.4 50.3
declined 33% yoy to EUR126 mn (Exhibit 2). The decline was due to lower
Div. yield (%) 3.3 3.4 3.7
revenue from the Deutsche Bank account due to the ramp-down of the Postbank
Sales (Rs bn) 2,553 2,614 2,828
engagement. TCS indicated that the expected revenue from the Deutsche Bank
EBITDA (Rs bn) 674 707 769
account will continue to decline significantly in CY2025, but expects the decline
Net profits (Rs bn) 486 510 554
to be offset by growth in other accounts.
Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Diligenta continues good show; expect muted growth in CY2025 Prices in this report are based on the market close of
June 02, 2025
Diligenta’s revenue increased 16.1% yoy to GBP607 mn in CY2024 (Exhibit 3),
aided by the ramp-up of the Aviva deal. Strong growth in the past couple of
years may not be sustained in CY2025, given the lack of new large wins.

Pyramid deterioration continues in FY2025

Exhibit 4 lays out the percentage of employees in various age groups across
geographies. It is interesting to note that the percentage of employees in the
less-than-30 years’ age group is at the lowest level over the past six years
across most geographies. Significant improvement in the pyramid from the
current levels requires healthy revenue growth in the normal course of business,
not our base case in FY2026E. Improving the employee pyramid will help in
structurally better margins.

Full sector coverage on KINSITE

Japan is one of the largest markets for IT services globally, but continues to be
a difficult one for Indian IT to crack, given (1) high concentration of spending
Kawaljeet Saluja Sathishkumar S Vamshi Krishna
with home-grown firms and (2) less tendency to offshore. Select global IT firms
such as Accenture have fared well and gained share in the Japanese market.
 12

BSNL and JLR deals drive increase in transactions with related parties
In FY2025, revenue from related parties increased 20% yoy to US$806 mn, standing at 2.7% of the total
revenue (Exhibit 5). Incremental revenue addition of US$134 mn yoy contributed 46 bps to US$ revenue
growth in FY2025. Revenue from JLR increased 23.5% yoy to US$433 mn. US$ revenue from related
parties has increased at an eight-year CAGR of 10.6%.

Purchases of goods and services from related parties increased sharply by 5X yoy to US$992 mn, driven
by US$887 mn of purchases from Tejas Networks in FY2025, related to the BSNL deal ramp-up.

Healthy growth in Japan in local currency and in US$

TCS’s Japan subsidiary revenue grew 10.1% yoy in local currency to JPY103 bn in FY2025 (Exhibit 6).
US$ revenue increased 10.8% yoy to US$685 mn, accounting for 2.3% of the overall revenue. TCS Japan’s
revenue has increased at a CAGR of 7.1% in local currency over the past eight years, which is comparable
to 7% CAGR in overall US$ revenue for TCS. The share of the revenue from the Japanese subsidiary has
declined a tad over the years, mainly due to JPY depreciation against the US$.

Magnitude of wage increases reduces in FY2025

TCS awarded a 5.5-7.5% average wage increase for India employees, after accounting for promotions
and other event-based compensation increases, lower than the FY2024 level of 7-9 (Exhibit 7). The
average wage increase for employees outside India was similar at 1.5-6.0%. Note that TCS gave mid-
year compensation increase and promotions, which led to an increase in the average annual increase
from 4.5-7%, given at the start of the year.

Trends in key metrics for TCS E-Serve International subsidiary, 2019-2025, March fiscal year-ends

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Revenue (Rs mn) 11,969 12,306 14,894 18,629 20,233 18,584 13,075
Revenue (US$ mn) 171 173 201 250 251 224 155

Vertical revenue mix (%)

BFSI 95.7 95.9 95.4 92.6
Others 4.3 4.1 4.6 7.4

Vertical-wise revenue breakup (US$ mn)

BFSI 239 240 214 143
Others 11 10 10 11

Top client revenue concentration (%) 76.5 49.5 46.4 53.4 42.7 17.3

Top client revenue (Rs mn) 9,415 7,366 8,636 10,798 7,945 2,258
Top client revenue (US$ mn) 132 99 116 134 96 27

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

TCS
IT Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 13

Revenue trend in TCS Technology Solutions GmBH subsidiary, 2022-2024, December fiscal year-
ends

Revenue (EUR mn)

250 232

200 188

150
126

100

50

-
2022 2023 2024

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Trends in key metrics for Diligenta subsidiary, 2017-2024, calendar year-ends

Annualised
FY2017 FY2018 9MCY18 CY2019 CY2020 CY2021 CY2022 CY2023 CY2024
Key financial metrics (GBP mn)
Revenues 186 190 319 388 388 383 391 522 607
EBIT (1) 4 24 41 35 15 1 25 26
Profit/ (Loss) (1) 4 20 33 28 13 1 21 22
Growth (GBP,%)
Revenues (1.2) 2.5 67.8 21.4 0.1 (1.2) 1.9 33.7 16.1
EBIT 471.5 69.8 (15.6) (57.8) (93.6) 2,556.3 2.7
Profit/ (Loss) 469.1 66.8 (15.5) (55.3) (90.8) 1,709.3 5.7
Other key metrics
EBIT margin (%) (0.7) 2.2 7.6 10.7 9.0 3.8 0.2 4.8 4.2
Average # of employees 2,697 2,686 4,412 5,009 5,028 5,000 5,141 6,357 7,362
Note: Diligenta had March fiscal year-ends until FY2018; the company has changed financial year-end to December

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

TCS
IT Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 14

Geo-wise percentage of employees across various age groups, 2020-2025, %, March fiscal year-
ends

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

India
>50 1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.5
40-50 8 7 7 8.7 12.6 11.9
30-40 39 36 33 37.3 35.8 38.9
<30 52 56 59 52.9 50.3 47.7
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
North America
>50 21 21 20 21.8 20.7 20.5
40-50 33 28 27 28.4 35.3 32.9
30-40 30 29 30 32.8 30.9 35.5
<30 16 22 23 17 13.1 11.1
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
UK
>50 26 23 26 27.1 27 26.5
40-50 33 30 28 27.5 30.6 27.2
30-40 19 27 25 26.2 23.8 25.9
<30 23 20 21 19.2 18.6 20.4
Total 101 100 100 100 100 100
Europe
>50 14 16 25 25.5 25.8 26.7
40-50 27 22 23 23.8 26.8 24.7
30-40 34 33 30 34.2 31.5 34.8
<30 25 29 22 16.5 15.9 13.8
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
Emerging markets
>50 6 7 7 7.6 8.5 9.3
40-50 17 19 16 17.4 21.5 19.9
30-40 40 42 38 41.1 38.5 42.2
<30 37 32 39 33.9 31.5 28.6
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
APAC
>50 6 7 9 8.5 8.2 8.8
40-50 19 15 20 21.5 27.1 24.6
30-40 43 38 43 45.2 39.5 42.1
<30 32 40 28 24.8 25.2 24.5
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

TCS
IT Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 15

Trends in transactions with related parties, 2017-2025, March fiscal year-ends

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Revenue from operations from related parties (US$ mn) 359 351 366 373 385 485 528 672 806
As a % of overall revenue 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.7

Revenue from key related party entities (US$ mn)

Jaguar Land Rover Limited 93 160 148 201 211 350 433
Jaguar Cars Limited (dormant) 97 1
Tata Steel IJmuiden BV 49 61 75 66 72 51
Tata Digital Private Limited 36 62 35 NA

Purchases of goods and services (including

178 95 118 142 113 98 104 198 992
reimbursements) (US$ mn)
Purchases from key entities (US$ mn)
Tejas Networks Limited — 91 887

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Trends in key metrics for TCS Japan subsidiary, 2017-2025, March fiscal year-ends

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

JPY mn
Revenues 59,571 65,753 74,707 76,703 73,125 75,101 85,275 93,585 103,079
EBIT 2,079 2,958 4,037 4,065 4,756 5,319 7,739 9,242 11,792
PBT 2,174 2,823 4,299 4,148 4,770 5,755 7,982 9,708 11,797
Net income 1,482 1,856 2,964 2,822 3,299 3,978 5,485 7,098 8,636
Growth (local currency,%)
Revenues 10.4 13.6 2.7 (4.7) 2.7 13.5 9.7 10.1
EBIT 42.3 36.5 0.7 17.0 11.8 45.5 19.4 27.6
PBT 29.9 52.3 (3.5) 15.0 20.6 38.7 21.6 21.5
Net income 25.2 59.7 (4.8) 16.9 20.6 37.9 29.4 21.7
USD mn
Revenues 552 592 673 704 661 616 640 618 685
EBIT 19 27 36 37 43 44 58 61 78
PBT 20 25 39 38 43 47 60 64 78
Net income 14 17 27 26 30 33 41 47 57
Growth (USD,%)
Revenues 7.4 13.6 4.6 (6.1) (6.8) 3.8 (3.3) 10.8
EBIT 38.4 36.5 2.5 15.3 1.5 33.1 5.2 28.4
PBT 26.3 52.3 (1.7) 13.3 9.5 26.8 7.1 22.2
Net income 21.9 59.7 (3.0) 15.2 9.4 26.1 14.0 22.4

EBIT margin (%) 3.5 4.5 5.4 5.3 6.5 7.1 9.1 9.9 11.4
Net income margin (%) 2.5 2.8 4.0 3.7 4.5 5.3 6.4 7.6 8.4

As a % of overall revenue 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.3

Avg. USD/JPY 108 111 111 109 111 122 133 151 150

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

TCS
IT Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 16

Trends in average and median wage increases in past several years, 2015-2024, %, March fiscal year-ends

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
% increase in median remuneration of employees 4.6 9.2 4.9 0.6 3.7 2.0 (0.0) 4.2 5.1 10.8 6.3
Average wage increase for India employees after accounting for
14 12 10 7 7.2 7.7 6.4 10.5 6-9 7-9 5.5-7.5
promotions and other event based compensation increases(%)
Average wage increase for employees outside India (%) 2-6 2-4 2-6 2-5 2-5 2-6 2-6 1.5-6 1.5-5.5 1.5-6 1.5-6

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Key model assumptions, 2020-2028E, March fiscal year-ends

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E

Average Exchange Rate 71.2 74.0 74.6 80.7 82.8 84.6 86.6 88.5 90.0
Revenues (US$ mn) 22,031 22,174 25,707 27,927 29,081 30,178 30,175 31,960 34,059
Revenue Growth (%) 5.4 0.6 15.9 8.6 4.1 3.8 (0.0) 5.9 6.6
C/c revenue growth 7.1 (0.8) 15.4 13.7 3.4 4.0 (0.0) 5.9 6.6
C/c organic revenue growth 7.1 (0.8) 15.4 13.7 3.4 4.0 (0.0) 5.9 6.6
Employees 448,464 488,649 592,195 614,795 601,546 607,979 642,109 671,004 707,909
Employee addition 32,639 40,185 103,546 22,600 (13,249) 6,433 34,130 28,895 36,905
EBITDA margin (%) 26.8 28.4 27.7 26.3 26.7 26.4 27.0 27.2 27.1
EBIT margin (%) 24.6 25.9 25.3 24.1 24.6 24.3 24.7 25.0 25.1
SG&A (%) 16.6 15.0 15.0 15.5 15.8 14.6 15.0 14.8 14.7
Effective tax rate (%) 23.2 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.3 24.8 25.4 25.6

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

TCS
IT Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 17

Key operating metrics

Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25

Revenues (US$ mn) 7,226 7,210 7,281 7,363 7,505 7,670 7,539 7,465
Revenues (Rs mn) 593,810 596,920 605,830 612,370 626,130 642,590 639,730 644,790
Exchange rate (Re/US$) 82.2 82.8 83.2 83.2 83.4 83.8 84.9 86.4
Revenue by geography (%)
North America 52.0 51.7 50.6 50.0 49.5 47.6 47.7 48.2
Latin America 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8
UK 16.4 16.5 16.4 16.8 16.9 17.0 16.6 16.8
Continental Europe 14.9 14.9 15.0 14.6 14.4 14.6 13.9 14.3
India 4.9 4.9 6.1 6.7 7.5 8.9 9.8 8.4
Asia Pacific 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 8.0 7.8 8.1
MEA 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4
Vertical split of revenues (%)- new classification
BFSI 32.5 32.6 31.7 31.3 30.9 30.8 30.5 31.2
Consumer Business 16.1 15.9 15.7 15.7 15.4 15.1 15.3 15.3
Communication & Media 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.2 5.9 5.8 5.8
Manufacturing 8.3 8.5 8.6 8.8 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.4
Life sciences & healthcare 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.9 11.0 10.4 10.1 10.1
Technology & Services 8.7 8.6 8.4 8.2 8.1 8.0 8.0 8.1
Energy, Resources & Utilities 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.7
Regional markets and others 10.9 11.0 12.3 12.9 14.0 15.5 16.3 15.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Client metrics
US$1 mn clients 1,268 1,272 1,288 1,294 1,310 1,307 1,309 1,332
US$5 mn clients 677 688 693 693 697 710 722 722
US$10 mn clients 468 483 480 487 486 491 497 493
US$20 mn clients 296 292 299 301 300 298 294 298
US$50 mn clients 137 137 137 139 140 136 134 130
US$100 mn clients 60 61 61 62 63 66 64 64
TCV of deal wins (US$ mn)
Total 10,200 11,200 8,100 13,200 8,300 8,600 10,200 12,200
North America 5,200 4,500 4,200 5,700 4,600 4,200 5,900 6,800
Financial services 3,000 3,000 2,600 4,100 2,700 2,900 3,200 4,000
Retail 1,200 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,700
Employee metrics
Total employees - incl Indian subsidiaries 615,318 608,985 603,305 601,546 606,998 612,724 607,354 607,979
Net addition 523 (6,333) (5,680) (1,759) 5,452 5,726 (5,370) 625
IT services attrition rate (%) 17.8 14.9 13.3 12.5 12.1 12.3 13.0 13.3

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

TCS
IT Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 18

Profit model, balance sheet, cash model of TCS, March fiscal year-ends (Rs mn), 2020-2028E
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit model
Revenues 1,569,490 1,641,770 1,917,540 2,254,580 2,408,930 2,553,240 2,614,044 2,828,488 3,065,340
Cost of sales (923,220) (971,380) (1,146,210) (1,362,680) (1,435,950) (1,559,940) (1,574,163) (1,701,471) (1,846,020)
SG&A expenses (260,470) (245,580) (286,800) (349,530) (379,870) (371,650) (393,093) (419,984) (450,827)
EBIT 385,800 424,810 484,530 542,370 593,110 621,650 646,787 707,033 768,493
Other income 36,680 24,970 32,340 26,700 37,270 31,660 36,298 40,096 42,910
Pre-tax profits 422,480 449,780 516,870 569,070 630,380 653,310 683,085 747,129 811,403
Provision for tax (98,010) (114,580) (132,380) (146,040) (162,620) (165,340) (169,722) (189,800) (207,643)
Recurring net income 324,470 335,200 384,490 423,030 467,760 487,970 513,363 557,329 603,760
Minority Interest (1,070) (1,320) (1,220) (1,560) (1,628) (2,440) (2,901) (2,901) (2,901)
Extraordinary items — — — — (6,770) — — — —
Reported net income 323,400 333,880 383,270 421,470 466,132 485,530 510,462 554,428 600,859
EPS (Rs) 86.2 89.3 103.6 115.2 129.6 134.2 141.1 153.2 166.1
Balance Sheet
Shareholders funds 862,400 885,550 912,590 925,420 926,120 968,820 1,055,599 1,149,851 1,251,997
Borrowings — — — — — — — — —
Minority interest 6,230 6,750 7,070 7,820 8,300 10,150 13,051 15,952 18,852
Other non-current liabilities 88,820 88,240 90,670 85,770 90,720 109,130 108,594 110,169 111,916
Total liabilities 957,450 980,540 1,010,330 1,019,010 1,025,140 1,088,100 1,177,243 1,275,971 1,382,766
Net fixed assets 119,380 121,350 120,800 115,950 112,240 129,320 127,411 127,969 133,731
Goodwill 38,500 39,480 39,350 40,060 39,890 40,240 40,240 40,240 40,240
Intangibles 2,830 4,800 11,010 8,670 5,100 9,400 9,400 9,400 9,400
Investments 2,160 2,130 2,230 2,660 2,810 2,750 2,750 2,750 2,750
Other non-current assets 149,640 150,110 159,630 162,910 159,210 187,350 197,121 205,674 214,649
Cash and bank balances 441,092 502,338 555,770 495,973 465,440 469,550 520,018 575,407 629,658
Net current assets excluding cash 203,848 160,332 121,540 192,787 240,450 249,490 280,302 314,532 352,338
Total assets 957,450 980,540 1,010,330 1,019,010 1,025,140 1,088,100 1,177,243 1,275,971 1,382,766
Cash flow
Operating cash flow, excl. working capital changes 370,360 388,970 427,180 461,820 512,360 550,720 537,136 579,399 624,396
Working capital (46,670) 8,630 (27,690) (42,170) (75,940) (36,460) (31,699) (33,054) (36,508)
Cash flow from operations 323,690 397,600 399,490 419,650 436,420 514,260 505,437 546,344 587,888
Capital expenditure (33,150) (31,390) (34,850) (31,000) (26,470) (49,770) (38,678) (37,040) (43,148)
Net finance cost/ income 36,680 24,970 32,340 26,700 37,270 31,660 36,298 40,096 42,910
Increase/(decrease) in lease liabilities (10,620) (13,360) (14,170) (15,150) (16,140) (16,360) (32,986) (33,836) (34,686)
Free cash flow 316,600 377,820 382,810 400,200 431,080 479,790 470,072 515,564 552,964
Ratios (%)
Gross profit margin 41.2 40.8 40.2 39.6 40.4 38.9 39.8 39.8 39.8
EBITDA margin 26.8 28.4 27.7 26.3 26.7 26.4 27.0 27.2 27.1
EBIT margin 24.6 25.9 25.3 24.1 24.6 24.3 24.7 25.0 25.1
EPS growth 3.8 3.7 16.0 11.1 12.6 3.5 5.1 8.6 8.4
RoAE 36.4 38.2 42.6 45.9 50.4 51.2 50.4 50.3 50.0

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

TCS
IT Services India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 UPDATE

Premier Energies (PREMIERE) SELL

Renewable Energy
CMP(₹): 1,077 Fair Value(₹): 900 Sector View: Cautious NIFTY-50: 24,717 June 02, 2025

Investor day: Evolving into integrated cleantech manufacturer Company data and valuation summary
Premier’s investor day covered (1) Indian solar policy, (2) uncertainty around Stock data
IRA incentives in the US, (3) supply-demand environment in India and (4) the
CMP(Rs)/FV(Rs)/Rating 1,077/900/SELL
company’s expansion plan—Mission 2028. In addition, Premier announced
52-week range (Rs) (high-low) 1,388-756
two expansions in adjacent businesses—(1) BESS cell-to-pack manufacturing
Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 486/5.7
and (2) inverter manufacturing. Both of these are aimed at increasing wallet
ADTV-3M (mn) (Rs/US$) 1,568/18.4
share in renewable energy projects; however, the impact of the initiatives
would be seen only FY2028 onwards. Premier’s Mission 2028 expansion is Shareholding pattern (%)
ambitious and will test its execution capability and hence remains a key
monitorable. Since all capacity expansions announced in 4QFY25 call are on
19.5
track, we continue with our existing estimates and FV of Rs900. Retain SELL.
5.9
1.7
Mission 2028: Ambitious, but execution is key 5.7 64.3
3.0
In the recently announced Mission 2028, Premier has significantly raised its
capacity targets with an aim to become a 10 GW integrated end-to-end solar
manufacturing player; if executed, this will make it the second largest player by Promoters FPIs MFs BFI s Retail Others
FY2028 behind Waaree. While the target does indicate rising management

Private Circulation Only. This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities A ct of 1933
ambition, execution will be the key since the company’s existing capacity of 2 Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M
Absolute 8 23 0
GW cells and 5 GW modules is a small fraction of the target capacity; in addition,
Rel. to Nifty 6 12 0
given Premier’s lack of experience in wafer and ingot, on-time commissioning of
Rel. to MSCI India 5 10 0
the said facilities will be critical and a key monitorable. As part of Mission 2028,
the company expects to incur roughly Rs125 bn over the next three years; Forecasts/Valuations 2025 2026E 2027E
funding of the same will likely be partly through internal accruals and debt. EPS (Rs) 20.8 27.5 42.6
EPS growth (%) 279.3 32.1 55.0
Rising competition in domestic market a medium-term risk P/E (X) 51.8 39.2 25.3
Over the past year, a rapidly growing DCR market coupled with low operational P/B (X) 17.2 12.0 8.1
solar cell capacity led to elevated realization for solar cells and DCR modules. This EV/EBITDA (X) 27.2 19.4 12.9
enabled first movers such as Premier to generate superior profitability compared RoE (%) 54.0 36.0 38.2
to peers. However, given continued commissioning of solar cell capacities by Div. yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0
peers, we expect Premier’s profitability to dip by FY2028. Recent commissioning Sales (Rs bn) 65 93 136
of 5.4 GW solar cell plant by Waaree has taken total solar cell capacity to ~25 GW EBITDA (Rs bn) 18 25 37
(~70+ of total domestic solar module addition), indicating that solar cell demand Net profits (Rs bn) 9.4 12 19
supply parity will be reached by FY2027, in line with our earlier estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Prices in this report are based on the market close of

Entry into adjacent businesses—diversification and a growth lever June 02, 2025
Premier has announced expansion into (1) BESS assembly by setting up a 12
GWh cell-to-pack manufacturing capacity, (2) 3 GWh inverter manufacturing
and (3) aluminum frame manufacturing; the first two expansions will help
Premier increase its customer wallet share, while the aluminum frame business
will lead to higher backward integration in modules, enabling margin
improvement. The company will spend Rs6 bn on BESS assembly given its large
TAM; however, its ability to execute said expansions will be a key monitorable.

We retain our earlier estimates; FV unchanged at Rs900

Since all capacity expansions announced in the 4QFY25 call are on track, we
continue with our existing estimates and FV of Rs900. Retain SELL.
Full sector coverage on KINSITE

Deepak Krishnan Naman Jain

[email protected] [email protected]
+91-22-4336-0866 +91-22-4336-0876

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 20

Mission 2028: 10 GW fully integrated solar manufacturer by FY2028

As part of Mission 2028, the company aims to become a leading provider of cleantech solutions with
an end-to-end (ingot-to-module) integrated solar module manufacturing capacity of 10 GW. The
company expects to spend Rs125 bn in the next three years under the said mission. While we remain
confident of Premier’s ability to scale up solar module and cell manufacturing to 10 GW within the
defined target, expansion into ingot wafer will be the key, given the company’s lack of experience in this
part of the solar value chain.

Mission 2028 to test Premier’s execution capability

Premier’s current capacity stands at 2 GW of solar cell and 5.1 GW of solar module, a fraction of its target
of FY2028. To achieve the said target, Premier has (1) announced a slew of expansions for solar cell and
module and (2) signed a JV with a Taiwan-based leading wafer manufacturer, Sino-American Silicon
Products Inc. The current status of said expansions are given in the following exhibits.

Most of Premier’s announced expansions to be completed in next 12-18 months

Premier Energies status of ongoing capacity expansion as of June 2025
Product Capacity (GW) Location Timeline Remarks
1.2 Telangana 1QFY26 Commissiong expected in June, broadly in line with earlier guidance
Facility has been relocated to AP from Telangana along with capacity
Solar cell 4.4 Andhra Pradesh 1QFY27
enhansion from 4GW, on time commissioning will remain key
0.8 Andhra Pradesh 2QFY27 Announced in May 2025
5.6 Telangana 4QFY26 Capacity enhanced from 4GW to 5.6GW, on time commissioning remains key
Solar module
1.6 Andhra Pradesh 4QFY26 Announced in May 2025
Wafer 2.0 1QFY27 To be built with JV partner SAS

Source: Kotak Institutional Equities, Company

Premier expects to reach 10 GW of ingot-to-module manufacturing capacity by FY2028

Premier Energies Mission 2028 capacity expansion plan as of May 2025

Source: Company

Premier Energies
Renewable Energy India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 21

Rising competition, a medium-term risk for Premier

Commissioning of solar cell capacities by manufacturers over the past year has taken total solar
cell capacity to 25 GW (~70% of total Indian demand in FY2025, ~2X DCR demand). This, we
believe, will start impacting the supernormal realization and profitability currently enjoyed by solar
cell manufacturers in the medium term. In the DCR market, the share of the top 3 players has
reduced from 75% in FY2024 to 54% in YTD FY2025 and a number of manufacturers are seeing a
constant rise, a clear indication of increasing competitive intensity. While ALMM list II
implementation will increase demand for solar cell, we believe that the market will see parity in
the next 2-3 years.

DCR market has seen increased competition, top 3 players’ share dropping from 75% in 2024 to 54% to YTD
CY2025
Manufacturer-wise volume in DCR cell market, December year-ends, 2022-YTD 2025 (MW)
2022 2023 2024 YTD 2025
First Solar — — 1,848 915
Tata Power — 186 599 859
Renew — — 156 615
Adani 7 170 2,177 749
Premier — 60 1,918 545
Emvee — — 292 366
Jupiter 23 426 492 218
Websol — — 381 176
Waaree — — 7 206
Renewsys — — 7 —
CETC — — — 13
Total 30 842 7,877 4,662
Top 3 share (%) 100 93 75 54

Source: Industry

Premier Energies market share has seen a dip due to higher demand but constant capacity
Premier Energies market share in DCR cell market, December year-ends, 2022-YTD 2025 (%)

30.0

24.3
25.0

20.0

15.0
11.7

10.0 7.1

5.0

-
2023 2024 YTD 2025

Source: Industry

Premier Energies
Renewable Energy India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 22

Strategic expansion into adjacent businesses to boost growth

With India’s solar manufacturing boom likely to slow down in the medium term, Premier has announced
a series of initiatives in adjacent businesses in order to ensure a sustainable long-term growth rate—
(1) BESS cell-to-pack assembly unit (Rs6 bn capex) and (2) inverter manufacturing (Rs1-1.5 bn capex).
Both these will have two benefits—(1) increase Premier’s wallet share in renewable energy projects and
(2) increase dependence of IPPs, thus improving the company’s competitive advantage. We expect
BESS and the inverter business to start contributing to earnings from FY2028; however, the company’s
ability to execute said expansions and ensure strong offtake will remain the key.

BESS: Extension into adjacent businesses with large TAM

The Indian government through the Ministry of Power has mandated that all Renewable Energy
Implementing Agencies (REIAs) and state utilities need to incorporate a minimum of two hours co-
located energy storage system (BESS) equivalent to 10% of the installed solar capacity in all solar
tenders. This indicates a substantial increase in demand of battery storage technologies in coming years
(link). Currently, BESS competes with pumped hydro as the primary storage technology to be used in the
power sector.

In order to capitalize on growing demand for BESS, Premier will be setting up a 12 GWh of cell-to-pack
manufacturing line paired with EPC offerings for IPP customers. This will ensure the company’s utility
customers are be able to fulfill both their module and BESS requirements from Premier. However, it will
remain crucial to see whether the company is able to successfully execute its entry into BESS assembly
in a timely manner.

Pumped hydro storage and lithium ion are the primary modes of energy storage today
Types of energy storage technologies

Source: Industry reports, Crisil

Lithium ion-based Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) is taking over Pumped Hydro (PHS)

Although PHS is the most widely used and commercially available mode of energy storage in the country,
yet total installed capacity is limited (~4% of exploitable potential, as per Crisil). Instead, BESS is steadily
gaining traction given it can be easily installed, requires less time to set up and can be used for a wide
range of grid support activities, such as energy time shift, distribution deferral and energy arbitrage, etc.

Premier Energies
Renewable Energy India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 23

Similar capital cost with shorter construction period makes BESS the favored mode of energy storage
Comparative analysis of pump hydro storage and BESS
Parameters PHS BESS
Total capital cost for a closed loop PHS ranges around ~Rs. 5-6 Crore/ Lithium-ion battery storage can range from USD 550-700/kW (for a four-
Capital cost
MW* hour storage solution)
Efficiency 75-80% 80-85%
Land requirement ~2,000 m2/MW ~100 m2/MW
Ideal storage
6 – 12 hours Upto 4 hours
duration
Response time 30-90 seconds In milliseconds
Project life 40 – 50 years (life of dam/reservoir is over 80 years) Upto 8 years
4 – 5 years, it also depends upon other external and socio-political
Construction period 1 year
factors
Operating cost Lower Higher since batteries need to be replaced after certain period
Estimated levelised
Rs 4 – 6 per kWh Rs 5 – 7 per kWh
tariff
Need substantial reservoirs which may cause environmental Disposal of batteries is a major concern. If not taken care properly, may
Environmental
consequences, such as habitat destruction and changes in water flow end up in landfills, posing risks of corrosion, flammability, and
impact
downstream environmental contamination

1) Long approval process for land, environmental and forest clearances 1) Shortage of rare minerals and metals
2) Rehabilitation and resettlement issues 2) Limited manufacturing capacity
Execution and
3) Limited naturally suitable sites 3) Cost volatility
operational risk
4) Long gestation period with high construction risk 4) Performance deterioration and fire risk in extreme ambient conditions
5) Managing water requirement, especially in case of any adverse events 5) Constant degradation and self-discharge

Source: Crisil

According to CEA, BESS demand to touch 35 GWh by 2027E

On the basis of the National Electricity Plan 2023 of CEA, energy storage requirement will be 82 GWh in
2027, increasing at 22% over FY2027-47E, reaching 2,380 GWh by FY2047.

BESS is projected to be the dominant ESS, growing at 18% over FY2027-47E

PSH and BESS market size, March fiscal year-ends, 2027-47E (GWh)
Capacity (GWh) CAGR (%)
2027E 2032E 2047E FY2027-32E FY2027-47E
PSH 48 175 540 30 13
BESS 35 236 1,840 47 22
Total 82 411 2,380 38 18

Source: CEA

BESS: Ability to set up line and guarantee offtake remains key

 Premier is committing Rs6 bn for setting up a 12 GWh BESS cell-to-pack assembly facility; this is
the company’s largest capex outside the solar business, highlighting its clear focus on capitalizing
on the BESS growth story.

 Since the entry into BESS is fairly recent, the company hasn’t yet finalized on a technology partner.

 Premier intends to operationalize its assembly unit in two phases—first phase of 6 GWh will
commence production by FY2027, while the second phase of 6 GWh will be operational by FY2028.

 Post-2028, if Premier sees good traction for its assembly unit, it will likely also expand into battery
manufacturing, as has been announced by one of its peers.

 Total addressable market: BESS’ projected demand is expected to reach 236 GWh by FY2031-32,
from 35 GWh in 2027, translating into a 47% CAGR over FY2027-32E. It is likely that once the 12
GWh capacity gets commissioned, Premier will also expand into cell manufacturing.

 Key risks: Currently, there are no major domestic BESS assembly capacity with India importing
BESS units from China. Hence, the ability of the company to achieve its stated targets remains the
key.

Premier Energies
Renewable Energy India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 24

 Tariff barriers: Currently there are no import duty restrictions on Chinese imports; hence, policy
measures to aid domestic industry (tariff and non-tariff barriers) will be the key for any offtake from
domestic manufacturers.

Inverter: Enhancing retail customer wallet share

 In addition to BESS assembly, Premier has also announced plans to get into inverter
manufacturing.

 Premier is committing up to Rs1-1.5 bn, with an aim to set up total manufacturing capacity of 1 mn
units translating into 3 GW.

 The company expects the inverter facility to be operational by 4QFY26.

Chinese companies such as Sungrow and Sineng are the leading suppliers of solar inverters in India
Leading inverter suppliers in solar segment in 4QCY24, based on volume shipped

Source: JMK Research

We retain our Fair Value of Rs900 for Premier Energies

DCF for Premier Energies, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-35E (Rs mn)
2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E 2034E 2035E
Consolidated revenue 65,187 93,091 136,109 150,256 175,349 207,611 243,463 279,640 303,489 323,842 349,815
YoY (%) 107.4 42.8 46.2 10.4 16.7 18.4 17.3 14.9 8.5 6.7 8.0
EBITDA 17,809 24,698 36,642 37,578 39,028 40,867 47,807 54,708 58,904 62,051 66,099
EBITDA Margin (%) 27.3 26.5 26.9 25.0 22.3 19.7 19.6 19.6 19.4 19.2 18.9
Consolidated EBIT 12,834 17,731 27,097 27,370 26,013 25,839 30,616 35,368 37,874 39,439 41,924
NOPAT 9,697 13,192 20,160 20,363 19,354 19,224 22,779 26,314 28,178 29,342 31,192
Depreciation 4,975 6,967 9,544 10,208 13,014 15,028 17,191 19,339 21,030 22,612 24,175
Inc/dec in working capital (1,427) (932) (2,675) (880) (1,560) (2,006) 3,774 (1,357) (895) (764) (974)
Capex (6,202) (11,831) (19,856) (54,355) (28,067) (20,133) (21,631) (21,486) (16,907) (15,822) (15,630)
FCFF 7,044 7,395 7,174 (24,664) 2,741 12,113 22,113 22,810 31,407 35,369 38,762
Post tax cost of debt (%) 7.2
Risk free rate (%) 7.0
Risk premium (%) 4.9
Beta 1.2
Cost of equity 12.6
FY2025 debt 18,935
FY2025 equity 28,221
WACC (%) 10.4
Equity value per share (Rs) 900
Fair value (Rs) 900

Source: Kotak Institutional Equities estimate, Company

Premier Energies
Renewable Energy India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 25

Summary financials of Premier Energies (consolidated), March fiscal year-ends, 2021-30E (Rs mn)
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Income statement
Net revenues 7,015 7,429 14,285 31,438 65,187 93,091 136,109 150,256 175,349 207,611
Total operating expenses (6,478) (7,133) (13,503) (26,660) (47,379) (68,393) (99,467) (112,678) (136,321) (166,744)
EBITDA 537 296 782 4,778 17,809 24,698 36,642 37,578 39,028 40,867
Depreciation & Amortization (217) (430) (686) (1,212) (1,774) (2,504) (3,754) (7,179) (8,947) (10,215)
EBIT 320 (134) 96 3,566 16,034 22,195 32,887 30,399 30,081 30,651
Other income 348 242 347 275 1,333 1,402 2,442 5,663 9,554 14,028
Interest expense (217) (430) (686) (1,212) (1,774) (2,504) (3,754) (7,179) (8,947) (10,215)
PBT 552 (169) (90) 2,880 12,393 16,630 25,785 25,854 26,621 29,652
Tax expense 300 (13) 56 580 3,028 4,257 6,601 6,619 6,815 7,591
Net profit 258 (144) (133) 2,314 9,371 12,380 19,191 19,242 19,813 22,068
Reported PAT 258 (144) (133) 2,314 9,371 12,380 19,191 19,242 19,813 22,068
Recurring EPS 1 (0) (0) 5 21 27 43 43 44 49
Balance sheet
Shareholders' funds 2,221 3,946 4,112 6,469 28,221 40,601 59,792 79,034 98,847 120,915
Share capital 250 263 263 263 451 451 451 451 451 451
Reserves & surplus 1,971 3,683 3,849 6,205 27,770 40,150 59,341 78,583 98,396 120,464
Debt 3,452 4,533 7,635 13,922 18,935 27,217 41,116 79,164 98,811 112,905
Deferred tax liabilities 189 76 84 307 7 7 7 7 7 7
Minority interest and other liabilities 778 932 838 1,123 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114 3,114
Total sources of funds 6,639 9,488 12,670 21,821 50,277 70,938 104,029 161,320 200,779 236,941
Net fixed assets 4,206 5,864 9,334 12,172 12,146 17,011 27,322 71,470 86,896 92,501
Net working capital (ex-cash) 525 1,120 186 4,071 5,812 6,745 9,419 10,299 11,859 13,865
Investments 1,113 908 1,216 1,551 12,295 12,295 12,295 12,295 12,295 12,295
Cash and bank balances and current investments 794 1,597 1,935 4,027 20,023 34,887 54,992 67,256 89,969 118,810
Total application of funds 6,639 9,488 12,670 21,821 50,277 70,938 104,029 161,320 201,020 237,472
Free cash flow
Operating profit before wcap. changes 839 424 877 4,842 19,003 23,603 35,337 36,069 39,616 44,613
Change in working capital / other adjustments 1,667 (255) (407) (3,688) (1,529) (932) (2,675) (880) (1,560) (2,006)
Direct tax paid (138) (119) (103) (252) (3,994) (4,257) (6,601) (6,619) (6,798) (7,546)
Net cashflow from operating activites 2,369 50 367 902 13,480 18,414 26,061 28,570 31,258 35,061
Capex (3,245) (1,987) (2,760) (4,514) (6,202) (11,831) (19,856) (54,355) (28,482) (20,735)
Free cash flow (CFO + net capex) (876) (1,938) (2,394) (3,612) 7,279 6,583 6,205 (25,785) 2,776 14,326
Growth (%)
Revenue growth 5.9 92.3 120.1 107.4 42.8 46.2 10.4 16.7 18.4
EBITDA growth (44.9) 164.4 511.0 272.7 38.7 48.4 2.6 3.9 4.7
Recurring PAT growth (155.8) (7.4) (1,834.9) 305.1 32.1 55.0 0.3 3.0 11.4
Key ratios
EBITDA margin (%) 7.7 4.0 5.5 15.2 27.3 26.5 26.9 25.0 22.3 19.7
Net debt/equity (X) 1.2 0.7 1.4 1.5 (0.0) (0.2) (0.2) 0.2 0.1 (0.0)
Net debt/EBITDA (X) 5.0 9.9 7.3 2.1 (0.1) (0.3) (0.4) 0.3 0.2 (0.2)
Book value per share (Rs) 9 12 12 15 63 90 133 175 219 268
RoAE (%) 11 (5) (3) 44 54 36 38 28 22 20
RoACE (%) 5 0 4 20 36 40 44 22 18 17

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Premier Energies
Renewable Energy India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 UPDATE

Automobiles & Components

India
Sector View: Cautious NIFTY-50: 24,717 June 02, 2025

A mixed bag
The auto sector reported muted wholesale volume prints across PVs and CVs
amid weak retail demand trends. Domestic 2W and tractor segments
witnessed single-digit yoy growth amid the wedding season (2W) and positive
farm sentiment (tractors). PV and CV (goods) segments witnessed 4-6% yoy
decline in retail demand. Domestic 2W retail segment volumes grew by 7%
yoy, whereas export 2W segment witnessed >20% yoy growth, partly due to a
favorable base. Tractor segment maintained its momentum in May 2025.

Domestic wholesale PV volumes flat on a yoy basis in May 2025

As per our estimates, domestic PV industry wholesale volumes were flat on a
yoy basis, driven by weak retail trends. Retail PV volumes declined by 4% yoy in
May 2025. MSIL’s volumes improved by 3% yoy, led by 80% yoy increase in the
export segment, countered by 5% yoy decline in the domestic segment. As per
our estimates, MSIL’s wholesale market share stood at ~39% (-200 bps yoy).
TTMT PV volumes declined by 11% yoy, whereas M&M’s PV volumes grew by
21% yoy in May 2025. HMI reported 11% yoy decline in domestic volumes,

Private Circulation Only. This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities A ct of 1933
whereas Toyota/Kia Motors domestic volumes grew by 14-22% yoy.

Domestic 2W wholesale volumes up low to mid-single digit yoy in May 2025

Domestic 2W wholesale volumes grew by low to mid-single digit, driven by
continued momentum in scooter segment and recovery in motorcycle segment
due to the wedding season. Retail trends grew by 7% yoy in May 2025, driven by
higher wedding days (15 days in May 2025 versus <5 days in May 2024), and EV
2W retail sales increased by 30% yoy in May 2025, owing to the lower base of last
year. HMCL’s volumes increased by 2% yoy, whereas TVSL 2W volumes grew by
17% yoy, driven by 14% yoy growth in domestic volumes and 22% yoy growth in
export volumes. Royal Enfield volumes grew by 26% yoy, led by 82% yoy increase
in exports and 19% yoy growth in domestic segment. Bajaj Auto reported 8% yoy
increase in total volumes, driven by 20% yoy increase in export segment.

CV segment volumes muted in May 2025

Domestic CV segment wholesale volumes were flat on a yoy basis, partly on
account of channel filling ahead of AC cabin norms. However, retail trends were
muted for goods vehicle (-6% yoy) in May 2025. TTMT domestic CV volumes
declined by 5% yoy, led by (1) 20% yoy decline in SCV cargo and pickup
segments and (2) 10% yoy decline in HCV truck segment, partly offset by 11%
yoy increase in volumes of ILMCV trucks. AL reported 6% yoy increase in
volumes, whereas VECV’s volumes increased by 7% yoy in May 2025.

Domestic tractor segment demand remains steady

As per our estimates, domestic tractor volumes increased by mid to high single
digit yoy in May 2025. The demand momentum is expected to remain strong,
driven by (1) early advancement of above-normal monsoon for kharif sowing
and better reservoir levels, (2) sustained government support and (3) favorable
terms of trade for the farmer. M&M tractor volumes grew by 10% yoy, whereas
Escorts Kubota’s tractor volumes grew by 1% yoy in May 2025. Full sector coverage on KINSITE

Rishi Vora
 27

Maruti Suzuki total volumes increased by 3% yoy in May 2025; domestic volumes declined by 5% on a yoy basis
Maruti Suzuki monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-26 (units, %)
FYTD
May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 2026 2025
Sales volume (units)
Mini (Alto, S Presso) 9,902 9,395 9,960 10,648 10,363 10,687 9,750 7,418 14,247 10,026 11,655 6,332 6,776 13,108 21,421
Compact (Swift, Baleno, Ritz, Celerio, Dzire, New WagnoR, Ignis) 68,206 64,049 58,682 58,051 60,480 65,948 61,373 54,906 82,241 72,942 66,906 61,591 61,502 123,093 125,159
UV (Ertiga, S-Cross, Brezza, XL6, Grand Vitara, Fronx, Jimny, Invicto) 54,204 52,373 56,302 62,684 61,549 70,644 59,003 55,651 65,093 65,033 61,097 59,022 54,899 113,921 110,757
Van (Omni and Eeco) 10,960 10,771 11,916 10,985 11,908 11,653 10,589 11,678 11,250 11,493 10,409 11,438 12,327 23,765 23,020
Sedan (Ciaz) 730 572 603 707 662 659 597 464 768 1,097 676 321 458 779 1,597
Light commercial vehicle 2,692 2,758 2,891 2,495 3,099 3,539 2,926 2,406 4,089 2,710 2,391 3,349 2,728 6,077 5,188
Sales to other OEMs 10,490 8,277 10,702 10,209 8,938 10,136 8,660 8,306 7,463 10,878 6,882 9,827 10,168 19,995 15,971
Total domestic 157,184 148,195 151,056 155,779 156,999 173,266 152,898 140,829 185,151 174,179 160,016 151,880 148,858 300,738 303,113
Exports 17,367 31,033 23,985 26,003 27,728 33,168 28,633 37,419 27,100 25,021 32,968 27,911 31,219 59,130 39,527
Total volumes 174,551 179,228 175,041 181,782 184,727 206,434 181,531 178,248 212,251 199,200 192,984 179,791 180,077 359,868 342,640
Yoy change (%)
Mini (Alto, S Presso) (19.1) (33.2) 3.9 (12.8) 0.1 (26.6) (2.1) 190.1 (10.1) (32.2) (1.5) (45.0) (31.6) (38.8)
Compact (Swift, Baleno, Ritz, Celerio, Dzire, New WagnoR, Ignis) (4.5) (0.7) (12.5) (19.9) (11.8) (18.2) (5.1) 20.0 7.5 1.8 (4.2) 8.1 (9.8) (1.7)
UV (Ertiga, S-Cross, Brezza, XL6, Grand Vitara, Fronx, Jimny, Invicto) 17.2 20.7 (9.3) 6.7 3.8 19.4 20.4 21.1 4.9 6.2 4.6 4.4 1.3 2.9
Van (Omni and Eeco) (14.5) 15.1 (1.0) (7.4) 6.8 (10.2) 3.5 16.4 (6.4) (5.4) (13.4) (5.2) 12.5 3.2
Sedan (Ciaz) (26.4) (67.2) (55.3) (16.7) (55.6) (5.2) 114.7 (5.1) 111.6 128.1 14.6 (63.0) (37.3) (51.2)
Light commercial vehicle (6.8) (7.8) 13.0 (2.7) 35.1 (9.1) 16.6 40.4 19.8 (13.3) (33.8) 34.2 1.3 17.1
Sales to other OEMs 109.4 128.1 125.5 76.3 56.1 90.3 79.6 98.9 42.7 111.3 38.4 79.3 (3.1) 25.2
Total domestic 3.7 6.1 (5.3) (5.3) (1.2) (2.3) 8.1 27.3 5.5 3.3 (0.8) 4.1 (5.3) (0.8)
Exports (34.4) 57.0 8.0 5.6 23.2 51.1 24.8 39.2 13.3 (13.5) 27.3 26.0 79.8 49.6
Total volumes (2.0) 12.4 (3.6) (3.9) 1.9 3.6 10.4 29.6 6.5 0.9 3.1 7.0 3.2 5.0

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Automotive volumes increased by 17% yoy in May 2025; total tractor volumes grew by 10% yoy in May 2025
Mahindra & Mahindra monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-26 (units, %)
FYTD
May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 2026 2025
Sales volume (units)
Passenger UVs (incl. Verito) 43,218 40,022 41,623 43,277 51,062 54,504 46,222 41,424 50,659 50,420 48,048 52,330 52,431 104,761 84,226
Commercial Vehicles 19,826 20,594 19,713 21,092 23,706 28,812 22,042 19,502 23,917 23,826 23,951 22,989 21,392 44,381 42,198
3-wheelers 5,967 6,184 3,593 9,326 10,044 9,826 8,043 5,750 7,452 6,395 7,752 5,470 6,635 12,105 11,471
Exports (Auto sector) 2,671 2,597 1,515 3,060 3,027 3,506 2,776 3,092 3,404 3,061 4,143 3,381 3,652 7,033 4,528
Auto division 71,682 69,397 66,444 76,755 87,839 96,648 79,083 69,768 85,432 83,702 83,894 84,170 84,110 168,280 142,423
Tractors (Dom + Exp) 37,109 47,319 27,209 21,917 44,256 65,453 33,378 22,943 27,557 25,527 34,934 40,054 40,643 80,697 74,148
Total 108,791 116,716 93,653 98,672 132,095 162,101 112,461 92,711 112,989 109,229 118,828 124,224 124,753 248,977 216,571
Yoy change (%)
Passenger UVs (incl. Verito) 31.5 22.8 15.0 16.1 23.7 24.7 15.6 17.7 17.6 18.9 18.3 27.6 21.3 24.4
Commercial vehicles (1.2) (1.7) (5.7) (10.7) (1.2) 12.0 (0.8) 9.0 1.9 4.4 14.4 2.8 7.9 5.2
3-wheelers 2.0 (3.0) (44.6) 32.4 26.8 4.5 22.5 8.3 31.9 3.8 46.8 (0.6) 11.2 5.5
Exports (Auto sector) 2.1 3.7 (40.4) 26.3 25.1 89.1 52.9 70.0 95.0 98.9 163.4 82.1 36.7 55.3
Auto division 16.7 11.2 0.5 9.1 16.2 19.8 12.1 15.9 15.5 14.8 22.6 19.0 17.3 18.2
Tractors (Dom + Exp) 8.7 6.4 8.1 1.1 2.4 29.7 4.1 19.9 15.1 17.8 34.2 8.1 9.5 8.8
Total 13.9 9.2 2.6 7.2 11.2 23.6 9.6 16.9 15.4 15.5 25.8 15.3 14.7 15.0

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Tata Motors total volumes declined by 9% on a yoy basis in May 2025

Tata Motors monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-26 (units, %)
FYTD
May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 2026 2025
Sales volume (units)
CVs 29,691 31,980 27,042 27,207 30,032 34,259 27,636 33,875 31,988 32,533 41,122 27,221 28,147 55,368 59,229
PVs 47,075 43,624 44,954 44,486 41,313 48,423 47,177 44,289 48,316 46,811 51,872 45,532 42,040 87,572 95,058
Total sales 76,766 75,604 71,996 71,693 71,345 82,682 74,813 78,164 80,304 79,344 92,994 72,753 70,187 142,940 154,287
Yoy change (%)
CVs 2.4 (6.8) (17.9) (15.2) (23.1) (0.2) (1.4) (0.9) (0.3) (7.3) (2.7) (7.8) (5.2) (6.5)
PVs 2.4 (7.9) (5.7) (3.2) (8.8) (0.4) 2.2 1.4 (10.6) (8.8) 3.1 (5.1) (10.7) (7.9)
Total sales 2.4 (7.4) (10.7) (8.1) (15.4) (0.3) 0.9 0.4 (6.8) (8.2) 0.5 (6.2) (8.6) (7.4)

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Automobiles & Components

India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 28

VECV volumes increased by 7% yoy in May 2025

ECV monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-26 (units, %)
FYTD
May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 2026 2025
Domestic volumes 6,304 6,893 6,044 6,028 6,847 6,611 4,957 7,545 7,872 7,357 11,187 6,257 6,758 13,015 11,202
Export volumes 415 421 400 255 475 300 402 490 450 552 665 460 501 961 771
Volvo Volumes 182 110 178 260 287 201 215 289 167 183 242 129 144 273 305
Total sales 6,901 7,424 6,622 6,543 7,609 7,112 5,574 8,324 8,489 8,092 12,094 6,846 7,403 14,249 12,278
Yoy change (%)
Domestic volumes 7.3 10.7 13.8 2.0 2.0 (6.6) 5.8 1.0 21.1 6.2 6.3 27.7 7.2 16.2
Export volumes 66.0 68.4 (5.9) (23.2) 90.0 49.3 32.7 52.6 26.8 74.7 44.3 29.2 20.7 24.6
Volvo Volumes (14.6) (41.5) 26.2 9.7 23.2 (3.4) 4.9 22.5 (19.7) 2.8 (5.5) 4.9 (20.9) (10.5)
Total sales 8.9 11.4 12.7 1.0 5.7 (5.0) 7.3 3.7 20.1 9.0 7.6 27.3 7.3 16.1

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Royal Enfield volumes increased by 26% yoy in May 2025

Royal Enfield monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-26 (units, %)
FYTD
May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 2026 2025
Sales volume (units)
Royal Enfield 71,010 73,141 67,265 73,629 86,978 110,574 82,257 79,466 91,132 90,670 101,021 86,559 89,429 175,988 152,880
Domestic 63,531 66,117 61,208 65,623 80,213 100,999 72,236 67,891 81,052 80,799 88,050 76,002 75,820 151,822 138,569
Exports 7,479 7,024 6,057 8,006 7,652 9,575 10,021 11,575 10,080 9,871 12,971 10,557 13,609 24,166 14,311
Yoy change (%)
Royal Enfield (8.3) (5.1) (8.1) (5.1) 10.7 31.0 2.5 25.4 19.6 19.4 33.7 5.7 25.9 15.1
Domestic (10.3) (2.0) (7.4) (5.4) 8.0 24.8 (3.9) 18.5 14.9 19.0 33.3 1.3 19.3 9.6
Exports 12.2 (26.9) (14.1) (2.2) 77.2 175.4 96.0 89.9 79.0 23.2 36.4 54.5 82.0 68.9

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Escorts Kubota volumes increased by 1% on a yoy basis in May 2025

Escorts Kubota monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-26 (units, %)
FYTD
May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 2026 2025
Sales volume (units)
Escorts Kubota 10,286 11,245 6,963 6,652 12,380 18,110 8,974 5,472 6,669 8,590 11,374 8,729 10,354 19,083 19,125
Domestic 9,906 11,011 6,540 6,243 11,985 17,839 8,730 5,016 6,058 7,968 10,775 8,148 9,703 17,851 18,398
Exports 380 234 423 409 395 271 244 456 611 622 599 581 651 1,232 727
Yoy change (%)
Escorts Kubota (5.3) (4.7) (5.0) (2.7) 2.5 19.8 (9.4) (10.8) (6.7) 11.4 15.0 (1.2) 0.7 (0.2)
Domestic (4.7) (1.9) (5.5) (3.0) 5.7 22.6 (8.1) (12.5) (10.7) 9.6 15.2 (4.1) (2.0) (3.0)
Exports (17.9) (59.7) 3.4 3.5 (47.1) (51.9) (39.5) 12.6 66.0 41.4 12.4 67.4 71.3 69.5

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Automobiles & Components

India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 29

TVS Motor total volumes increased by 17% yoy in May 2025

TVS Motor monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-26 (units, %)
FYTD
May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 2026 2025
Sales volume (units)
Motorcycles 173,627 152,701 161,074 170,486 229,268 230,822 180,247 144,811 174,388 192,960 196,734 220,527 211,505 432,032 361,737
Scooters 145,305 128,986 139,995 163,629 186,751 193,439 165,535 133,919 171,111 164,415 166,297 169,741 166,749 336,490 289,431
Mopeds 40,658 40,481 38,607 44,726 55,773 53,898 46,691 33,272 42,172 34,514 37,089 40,062 37,912 77,974 83,014
Three-wheelers 10,324 11,478 14,464 12,747 10,703 10,856 8,777 9,685 9,952 12,087 14,567 13,566 15,109 28,675 19,347
Total sales 369,914 333,646 354,140 391,588 482,495 489,015 401,250 321,687 397,623 403,976 414,687 443,896 431,275 875,171 753,529
Yoy change (%)
Motorcycles 7.0 3.0 4.6 11.4 23.0 14.3 4.6 (2.2) 12.1 4.9 14.6 17.2 21.8 19.4
Scooters 19.9 6.3 14.8 14.8 20.3 17.1 21.9 29.8 29.3 24.4 26.5 17.8 14.8 16.3
Mopeds 13.3 16.2 6.0 22.3 23.2 0.7 6.2 (14.4) 0.3 (17.1) (10.3) (5.4) (6.8) (6.1)
Total three-wheelers (8.8) (4.4) 5.8 (7.2) (31.4) (23.0) (27.6) (18.2) 3.9 13.9 43.6 50.3 46.3 48.2
Total sales 11.9 5.4 8.6 13.2 19.9 12.5 10.2 6.6 17.1 9.6 16.9 15.7 16.6 16.1

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Ashok Leyland volumes increased by 6% yoy in May 2025

Ashok Leyland monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-26 (units, %)
FYTD
May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 2026 2025
Sales volume (units)
LCV 5,439 5,421 5,488 5,800 6,156 5,902 4,961 5,483 5,829 6,417 7,022 5,461 5,202 10,663 10,587
MHCV 9,243 9,519 8,440 8,663 11,077 9,408 9,176 11,474 11,384 11,486 17,038 7,960 10,282 18,242 18,366
Total CVs 14,682 14,940 13,928 14,463 17,233 15,310 14,137 16,957 17,213 17,903 24,060 13,421 15,484 28,905 28,953
Yoy change (%)
LCV 11.8 3.1 (0.2) (0.2) (4.6) (11.6) (10.7) (0.7) 1.9 5.3 (3.9) 6.1 (4.4) 0.7
MHCV 11.8 (4.4) (11.8) (11.3) (13.1) (7.6) 8.0 7.9 11.4 (0.4) 9.5 (12.7) 11.2 (0.7)
Total CVs 11.8 (1.8) (7.6) (7.1) (10.3) (9.2) 0.6 5.0 8.0 1.5 5.2 (6.0) 5.5 (0.2)

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

HMCL reported 2% yoy increase in volumes in May 2025

Hero MotoCorp monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-26 (units, %)
FYTD
May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 2026 2025
Total sales 498,123 503,448 370,274 512,360 637,050 679,091 459,805 324,906 442,873 388,068 549,604 305,406 507,701 813,107 1,031,708
Yoy change (%) (4.1) 15.2 (5.4) 4.8 18.7 18.1 (6.4) (17.5) 2.1 (17.2) 12.1 (42.8) 1.9 (21.2)

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

HMI reported 8% yoy volume decline in May 2025

HMI monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-26 (units, %)
FYTD
May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 2026 2025
Sales volume (units)
Hyundai Motor India 63,551 64,803 64,563 63,175 64,201 70,078 61,252 55,078 65,603 58,727 67,320 60,774 58,701 119,475 127,252
Domestic 49,151 50,103 49,013 49,525 51,101 55,568 48,246 42,208 54,003 47,727 51,820 44,374 43,861 88,235 99,352
Exports 14,400 14,700 15,550 13,650 13,100 14,510 13,006 12,870 11,600 11,000 15,500 16,400 14,840 31,240 27,900
Yoy change (%)
Hyundai Motor India 6.6 (1.2) (3.2) (11.6) (10.4) 2.0 (6.9) (2.4) (3.0) (2.9) 2.6 (4.6) (7.6) (6.1)
Domestic 1.1 0.2 (3.3) (8.0) (5.8) 0.8 (2.4) (1.3) (5.4) (4.9) (2.2) (11.6) (10.8) (11.2)
Exports 30.9 (5.8) (2.8) (22.5) (24.7) 6.7 (20.5) (6.1) 10.5 6.8 23.0 21.5 3.1 12.0

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Automobiles & Components

India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 30

Bajaj Auto reported 8% yoy volume increase in May 2025

Bajaj Auto monthly sales volume, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-26 (units, %)
FYTD
May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 2026 2025
Sales volume (units)
Domestic motorcycles 188,340 177,207 168,847 208,621 259,333 255,909 203,611 128,335 171,299 146,138 183,659 188,615 191,412 380,027 405,290
Export motorcycles 117,142 126,439 128,694 126,557 141,156 158,463 164,465 143,838 157,114 153,280 132,073 129,322 140,958 270,280 241,981
Total motorcycles 305,482 303,646 297,541 335,178 400,489 414,372 368,076 272,173 328,413 299,418 315,732 317,937 332,370 650,307 647,271
Domestic three-wheelers 36,747 39,244 42,150 45,206 52,554 47,992 37,243 34,085 37,060 37,277 37,815 32,000 34,321 66,321 68,880
Exports three-wheelers 13,094 15,587 14,478 17,420 16,488 17,413 16,321 16,867 15,567 15,376 16,276 15,873 17,930 33,803 27,428
Total three-wheelers 49,841 54,831 56,628 62,626 69,042 65,405 53,564 50,952 52,627 52,653 54,091 47,873 52,251 100,124 96,308
Total sales 355,323 358,477 354,169 397,804 469,531 479,777 421,640 323,125 381,040 352,071 369,823 365,810 384,621 750,431 743,579
Yoy change (%)
Domestic motorcycles (3.3) 6.6 18.9 29.7 28.1 (8.1) (6.9) (19.0) (11.4) (14.3) 0.4 (13.1) 1.6 (6.2)
Exports motorcycles 3.8 (0.7) 1.5 1.9 12.7 22.2 26.1 15.4 36.7 23.5 0.9 3.6 20.3 11.7
Total motorcycles (0.7) 3.4 10.7 17.6 22.2 1.5 5.5 (3.8) 6.5 1.6 0.6 (7.0) 8.8 0.5
Domestic three-wheelers 9.4 16.5 13.1 2.1 3.7 (6.1) (4.9) 4.7 1.0 2.5 1.1 (0.4) (6.6) (3.7)
Exports three-wheelers (5.5) 14.3 6.2 41.2 16.4 46.2 10.2 49.8 40.6 (1.5) 11.3 10.7 36.9 23.2
Total three-wheelers 5.0 15.8 11.2 10.6 6.5 3.7 (0.7) 16.3 10.2 1.3 4.0 3.0 4.8 4.0
Total sales 0.0 5.1 10.8 16.4 19.6 1.8 4.6 (1.1) 7.0 1.6 1.1 (5.8) 8.2 0.9

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities

Weak run continues in FY2026E for most OEMs

Residual volume run-rate for auto OEMs, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-26 (units, %)
Residual monthly Residual volume run rate
OEM May-25 Yoy chg (%) Mom chg (%) FYTD25 Yoy chg (%) volume run rate (Yoy growth)
Ashok Leyland 15,484 5.5 15.4 28,905 (0.2) 17,505 5.4
Bajaj Auto 384,621 8.2 5.1 750,431 0.9 428,144 9.6
Eicher Motor (RE) 89,429 25.9 3.3 175,988 15.1 95,356 11.3
Eicher Motor (VECV) 7,403 7.3 8.1 14,249 16.1 8,118 4.2
Escorts Kubota 10,354 0.7 18.6 19,083 (0.2) 10,410 8.0
Hero Motocorp 507,701 1.9 66.2 813,107 (21.2) 528,082 8.5
Hyundai Motor India 58,701 (7.6) (3.4) 119,475 (6.1) 67,055 5.6
Maruti Suzuki 180,077 3.2 0.2 359,868 5.0 199,021 5.2
Mahindra and Mahindra 124,753 14.7 0.4 248,977 15.0 125,158 8.9
Tata Motors 70,187 (8.6) (3.5) 142,940 (7.4) 81,114 4.1
TVS Motors 431,275 16.6 (2.8) 875,171 16.1 435,701 9.2

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Automobiles & Components

India Research

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 31

PV retail volumes declined by 4% yoy in May 2025

OEM-wise PV retail sales volume, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-26 (units, %)
FYTD
May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 2026 2025
Player-wise retail volumes (units) - ICE
Maruti Suzuki 123,580 116,254 132,785 127,477 115,857 203,501 129,663 115,847 214,898 120,308 134,702 140,789 116,918 257,707 262,998
Hyundai 45,442 39,155 44,221 43,374 38,745 69,932 44,827 39,317 61,417 39,310 43,898 44,939 38,024 82,963 94,625
Mahindra & Mahindra 34,459 36,673 39,668 40,334 35,570 61,148 43,728 35,292 54,473 41,992 48,644 50,650 43,060 93,710 73,130
Tata Motors 42,037 38,029 44,402 39,841 32,429 66,243 42,519 38,260 54,844 39,433 49,704 44,910 36,489 81,399 88,716
Kia Motors 19,374 16,804 19,409 19,264 16,009 29,613 18,908 17,370 22,897 19,465 22,792 22,236 16,727 38,963 39,160
Honda 4,904 4,334 5,033 4,958 4,025 7,352 4,591 4,724 7,960 5,346 5,141 5,009 4,061 9,070 11,148
Toyota 19,056 19,300 22,484 23,144 20,404 29,564 20,949 19,027 30,395 22,791 24,905 24,915 21,709 46,624 38,962
Renault 3,663 2,996 3,114 3,020 2,735 4,471 2,974 2,381 3,960 2,540 2,644 2,859 2,427 5,286 7,696
Nissan 2,074 1,600 1,871 2,005 2,163 2,706 2,386 1,643 2,598 1,741 1,799 1,886 1,523 3,409 4,327
MG Motor 4,472 3,835 4,103 4,108 3,056 5,815 5,136 5,340 6,747 4,826 5,543 5,194 4,952 10,146 8,735
Skoda 6,520 5,651 6,463 6,222 5,375 8,892 5,801 6,259 9,503 6,739 9,411 9,905 8,271 18,176 13,240
Others 4,775 4,766 5,470 4,861 5,117 6,865 4,793 3,948 7,075 5,363 7,008 6,788 5,150 11,938 10,378
Total 310,356 289,397 329,023 318,608 281,485 496,102 326,275 289,408 476,767 309,854 356,191 360,080 299,311 659,391 653,115
Yoy change (%) 1.2 (4.2) 13.3 (1.4) (17.0) 36.1 (12.9) (3.5) 18.6 (7.9) 9.1 5.1 (3.6) 1.0
Market share
Maruti Suzuki 39.8 40.2 40.4 40.0 41.2 41.0 39.7 40.0 45.1 38.8 37.8 39.1 39.1 39.1 40.3
Hyundai 14.6 13.5 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.1 13.7 13.6 12.9 12.7 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.6 14.5
Mahindra & Mahindra 11.1 12.7 12.1 12.7 12.6 12.3 13.4 12.2 11.4 13.6 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.2 11.2
Tata Motors 13.5 13.1 13.5 12.5 11.5 13.4 13.0 13.2 11.5 12.7 14.0 12.5 12.2 12.3 13.6
Kia Motors 6.2 5.8 5.9 6.0 5.7 6.0 5.8 6.0 4.8 6.3 6.4 6.2 5.6 5.9 6.0
Honda 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7
Toyota 6.1 6.7 6.8 7.3 7.2 6.0 6.4 6.6 6.4 7.4 7.0 6.9 7.3 7.1 6.0
Renault 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2
Nissan 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7
MG Motor 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.3
Skoda 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.0
Others 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Note:
(a) Retail sales do not include sales from Telangana and Lakshadweep

Source: Parivahan Sewa, Kotak Institutional Equities

Automobiles & Components

India Research

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 32

2W ICE retail volumes increased by 6% yoy in May 2025; total 2W volumes up by 7% yoy
OEM wise 2W ICE and EV retail sales volume, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-26 (units, %)
FYTD
May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 2026 2025
Player-wise retail volumes (units) - ICE
Hero MotoCorp 444,144 394,740 396,218 355,289 267,778 570,525 909,484 327,970 410,241 384,379 429,223 506,535 492,526 999,061 955,851
Bajaj Auto 166,271 144,838 144,152 132,704 122,753 202,450 278,414 120,911 147,170 128,458 132,747 160,839 159,352 320,191 355,015
TVS Motors 252,651 223,405 232,697 219,814 203,945 323,094 395,227 196,922 265,811 237,695 250,599 291,745 285,390 577,135 526,890
Honda 392,103 352,565 370,022 353,949 334,795 555,790 655,990 316,671 374,349 329,671 356,922 407,097 392,847 799,944 787,598
Royal Enfield 64,552 56,439 58,628 56,232 58,524 97,349 95,090 54,357 78,622 71,732 76,945 81,987 76,474 158,461 138,061
Classic Legends 2,506 2,094 2,200 2,118 2,168 4,294 4,213 2,352 2,835 2,338 2,284 2,451 1,963 4,414 5,341
Others 141,252 127,616 139,211 135,668 127,940 178,073 165,106 107,728 151,481 126,861 136,452 148,515 141,025 289,540 279,988
Total 1,463,479 1,301,697 1,343,128 1,255,774 1,117,903 1,931,575 2,503,524 1,126,911 1,430,509 1,281,134 1,385,172 1,599,169 1,549,577 3,148,746 3,048,744
Player-wise retail market share (%) - ICE
Hero MotoCorp 30.3 30.3 29.5 28.3 24.0 29.5 36.3 29.1 28.7 30.0 31.0 31.7 31.8 31.7 31.4
Bajaj Auto 11.4 11.1 10.7 10.6 11.0 10.5 11.1 10.7 10.3 10.0 9.6 10.1 10.3 10.2 11.6
TVS Motors 17.3 17.2 17.3 17.5 18.2 16.7 15.8 17.5 18.6 18.6 18.1 18.2 18.4 18.3 17.3
Honda 26.8 27.1 27.5 28.2 29.9 28.8 26.2 28.1 26.2 25.7 25.8 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.8
Royal Enfield 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 5.2 5.0 3.8 4.8 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.1 4.9 5.0 4.5
Classic Legends 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
Others 9.7 9.8 10.4 10.8 11.4 9.2 6.6 9.6 10.6 9.9 9.9 9.3 9.1 9.2 9.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Yoy change (%) - ICE
Hero MotoCorp (16.4) (7.7) 9.3 1.6 (24.4) 36.0 13.4 (29.2) 0.0 (6.9) (4.3) (1.0) 10.9 4.5
Bajaj Auto (5.8) (9.8) 1.2 (6.5) (13.9) 18.9 5.8 (29.7) (11.6) (19.6) (18.8) (14.8) (4.2) (9.8)
TVS Motors 8.2 1.6 14.3 4.5 (4.7) 36.7 13.6 (11.1) 10.6 0.8 9.5 6.4 13.0 9.5
Honda 45.0 24.4 23.4 13.8 (4.3) 37.7 27.3 (8.3) 4.5 (7.5) 0.1 2.9 0.2 1.6
Royal Enfield (7.3) (9.5) 4.1 (5.7) (8.8) 39.4 13.3 (3.0) 16.8 8.8 17.2 11.5 18.5 14.8
Classic Legends 5.8 (20.0) 0.5 (10.6) (12.6) 54.9 27.2 (6.6) (1.8) (10.7) (10.3) (13.5) (21.7) (17.4)
Others 27.8 12.4 23.7 9.7 0.1 26.8 8.6 (9.4) 9.6 (3.1) 3.0 7.0 (0.2) 3.4
Total 5.0 2.5 13.9 4.8 (10.9) 33.9 15.5 (18.3) 3.4 (6.1) (0.9) 0.9 5.9 3.3
Player-wise retail volumes (units) - ICE + EV
Hero MotoCorp 446,604 397,821 401,284 360,049 272,098 577,877 916,828 328,990 411,867 387,075 437,268 512,678 499,692 1,012,370 959,267
Bajaj Auto 175,520 153,888 161,917 149,517 141,966 230,866 304,772 139,206 168,638 150,027 167,956 179,977 181,129 361,106 371,823
TVS Motors 264,519 237,435 252,352 237,481 222,199 353,281 422,443 214,153 289,839 256,651 281,347 311,685 309,953 621,638 546,520
Honda 392,103 352,565 370,022 353,949 334,795 555,790 655,990 316,671 374,349 329,677 357,117 407,414 393,181 800,595 787,598
Royal Enfield 64,552 56,439 58,628 56,232 58,524 97,349 95,090 54,357 78,622 71,732 76,945 81,987 76,474 158,461 138,061
Classic Legends 2,506 2,094 2,200 2,118 2,168 4,294 4,213 2,352 2,835 2,338 2,284 2,451 1,963 4,414 5,341
Others 195,004 181,456 204,376 185,497 176,689 252,216 223,859 144,545 202,774 160,337 193,629 195,371 187,470 382,841 383,014
Total 1,540,808 1,381,698 1,450,779 1,344,843 1,208,439 2,071,673 2,623,195 1,200,274 1,528,924 1,357,837 1,516,546 1,691,563 1,649,862 3,341,425 3,191,624
Player-wise retail market share (%)
Hero MotoCorp 29.0 28.8 27.7 26.8 22.5 27.9 35.0 27.4 26.9 28.5 28.8 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.1
Bajaj Auto 11.4 11.1 11.2 11.1 11.7 11.1 11.6 11.6 11.0 11.0 11.1 10.6 11.0 10.8 11.6
TVS Motors 17.2 17.2 17.4 17.7 18.4 17.1 16.1 17.8 19.0 18.9 18.6 18.4 18.8 18.6 17.1
Honda 25.4 25.5 25.5 26.3 27.7 26.8 25.0 26.4 24.5 24.3 23.5 24.1 23.8 24.0 24.7
Royal Enfield 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.8 4.7 3.6 4.5 5.1 5.3 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.3
Classic Legends 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Others 12.7 13.1 14.1 13.8 14.6 12.2 8.5 12.0 13.3 11.8 12.8 11.5 11.4 11.5 12.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Yoy change
Hero MotoCorp (16.1) (7.1) 10.4 2.7 (23.2) 37.2 13.9 (29.3) 0.1 (6.7) (3.4) 0.0 11.9 5.5
Bajaj Auto (5.9) (5.9) 10.4 0.7 (5.1) 28.8 10.8 (23.7) (4.9) (12.5) (7.5) (8.3) 3.2 (2.9)
TVS Motors 4.2 4.3 17.9 5.2 (3.2) 39.7 15.1 (8.4) 13.4 2.5 10.1 10.5 17.2 13.7
Honda 45.0 24.4 23.4 13.8 (4.3) 37.7 27.3 (8.3) 4.5 (7.5) 0.2 3.0 0.3 1.7
Royal Enfield (7.3) (9.5) 4.1 (5.7) (8.8) 39.4 13.3 (3.0) 16.8 8.8 17.2 11.5 18.5 14.8
Classic Legends 5.8 (20.0) 0.5 (10.6) (12.6) 54.9 27.2 (6.6) (1.8) (10.7) (10.3) (13.5) (21.7) (17.4)
Others 5.5 22.3 34.8 13.5 4.8 34.1 6.6 (15.2) 5.2 (13.6) (13.5) 3.9 (3.9) (0.0)
Total 2.7 5.0 17.6 6.6 (8.4) 36.5 16.1 (17.5) 4.3 (6.2) (1.4) 2.5 7.1 4.7

Source: Parivahan Sewa, Kotak Institutional Equities

Automobiles & Components

India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 33

2W EV retail volumes increased by 30% yoy in May 2025 on a lower base; TVS Motor maintained leadership position in May 2025
OEM-wise 2W EV retail sales volume, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-26 (units, %)
FYTD
May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 2026 2025
Player-wise retail volumes (units)
Ather Energy 6,153 6,216 10,218 11,044 12,925 16,233 12,909 10,429 13,096 11,977 15,646 13,306 12,844 26,150 10,296
Okinawa 491 374 374 203 146 232 235 184 255 197 264 219 246 465 1,084
Hero Electric 279 283 286 194 160 151 158 58 82 49 74 55 67 122 558
Greave Cotton 2,061 2,815 3,203 2,928 2,824 4,015 4,490 2,840 1,626 2,696 8,045 6,143 7,166 13,309 4,737
Revolt 687 660 871 724 705 955 2,001 994 1,061 761 1,398 625 883 1,508 1,433
TVS Motors 11,868 14,030 19,655 17,667 18,254 30,187 27,216 17,231 24,028 18,956 30,748 19,940 24,563 44,503 19,630
Bajaj Auto 9,249 9,050 17,765 16,813 19,213 28,416 26,358 18,295 21,468 21,569 35,209 19,138 21,777 40,915 16,808
Ola Electric 37,387 36,858 41,800 27,623 24,748 41,818 29,257 13,770 24,405 8,663 23,574 19,784 18,500 38,284 71,549
Hero MotoCorp 2,460 3,081 5,066 4,760 4,320 7,352 7,344 1,020 1,626 2,696 8,045 6,143 7,166 13,309 3,416
Honda — — — — — — — — — 6 195 317 334 651 —
Others 6,694 6,634 8,413 7,113 7,241 10,739 9,703 8,542 10,768 9,133 8,176 6,724 6,739 13,463 13,369
Total EV two-wheelers 77,329 80,001 107,651 89,069 90,536 140,098 119,671 73,363 98,415 76,703 131,374 92,394 100,285 192,679 142,880
Yoy change (%) (27) 74 97 42 41 86 30 (3) 20 (7) (6) 41 30 35
Market share (%)
Ather Energy 8.0 7.8 9.5 12.4 14.3 11.6 10.8 14.2 13.3 15.6 11.9 14.4 12.8 13.6 7.2
Okinawa 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8
Hero Electric 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4
Ampere 2.7 3.5 3.0 3.3 3.1 2.9 3.8 3.9 1.7 3.5 6.1 6.6 7.1 6.9 3.3
Revolt 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0
TVS Motors 15.3 17.5 18.3 19.8 20.2 21.5 22.7 23.5 24.4 24.7 23.4 21.6 24.5 23.1 13.7
Bajaj Auto 12.0 11.3 16.5 18.9 21.2 20.3 22.0 24.9 21.8 28.1 26.8 20.7 21.7 21.2 11.8
Ola Electric 48.3 46.1 38.8 31.0 27.3 29.8 24.4 18.8 24.8 11.3 17.9 21.4 18.4 19.9 50.1
Hero MotoCorp 3.2 3.9 4.7 5.3 4.8 5.2 6.1 1.4 1.7 3.5 6.1 6.6 7.1 6.9 2.4
Others — — — — — — — — — 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 —
Total EV two-wheelers 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Note:
(a) Retail sales do not include sales from Telangana and Lakshadweep

Source: Parivahan Sewa, Kotak Institutional Equities

Goods vehicle retail volumes declined by 6% yoy in May 2025

Goods vehicle retail sales volume, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-26 (units, %)
FYTD
May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 2026 2025
Player-wise retail volumes (units)
Tata Motors 25,916 22,132 23,643 21,925 22,416 28,003 25,620 22,001 28,687 24,542 27,106 26,297 22,090 48,387 54,996
Ashok Leyland 11,631 9,686 11,970 10,346 10,775 13,539 11,318 10,099 14,155 12,836 14,225 13,901 11,725 25,626 26,183
VECV 4,919 3,921 4,808 4,768 4,778 5,858 4,612 3,775 6,152 5,300 5,406 6,052 4,806 10,858 10,497
Daimler 1,654 1,345 1,451 1,357 1,365 1,626 1,424 1,449 1,932 1,570 1,703 1,780 1,556 3,336 3,499
M&M 19,286 16,860 18,563 18,100 18,291 27,418 22,834 18,564 27,218 20,905 23,868 20,715 19,174 39,889 39,504
Others 5,015 4,260 5,053 4,827 5,065 7,184 5,572 7,269 7,347 5,340 5,810 4,849 4,958 9,807 9,989
Total LGV 68,421 58,204 65,488 61,323 62,690 83,628 71,380 63,157 85,491 70,493 78,118 73,594 64,309 137,903 144,668
Yoy change (%) (0.5) (8.9) 2.2 (9.4) (13.5) 2.9 (7.6) (6.1) 6.2 (8.2) 0.8 (3.5) (6.0) (4.7)
Market share (%)
Tata Motors 37.9 38.0 36.1 35.8 35.8 33.5 35.9 34.8 33.6 34.8 34.7 35.7 34.3 35.1 38.0
Ashok Leyland 17.0 16.6 18.3 16.9 17.2 16.2 15.9 16.0 16.6 18.2 18.2 18.9 18.2 18.6 18.1
VECV 7.2 6.7 7.3 7.8 7.6 7.0 6.5 6.0 7.2 7.5 6.9 8.2 7.5 7.9 7.3
Daimler 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
M&M 28.2 29.0 28.3 29.5 29.2 32.8 32.0 29.4 31.8 29.7 30.6 28.1 29.8 28.9 27.3
Others 7.3 7.3 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.6 7.8 11.5 8.6 7.6 7.4 6.6 7.7 7.1 6.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Note:
(a) Retail sales do not include sales from Telangana and Lakshadweep

Source: Parivahan Sewa, Kotak Institutional Equities

Automobiles & Components

India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 34

3W retail volumes increased by 6% yoy in May 2025, driven by low-speed segment

3W retail sales volume, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-26 (units, %)
FYTD
May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 2026 2025
Player-wise retail volumes (units)
Bajaj Auto 35,530 34,238 38,731 37,765 37,423 47,948 39,058 28,995 39,490 34,659 33,843 32,642 34,596 67,238 65,464
Piaggio 7,017 6,856 8,445 7,384 7,776 9,041 8,842 6,468 7,906 6,660 7,072 6,362 6,216 12,578 12,911
M&M 5,151 5,354 7,544 5,671 6,634 8,251 7,824 6,121 7,208 7,208 7,208 7,208 7,208 14,416 8,789
Atul Auto 2,450 2,023 2,376 2,102 2,182 3,212 2,512 2,229 2,748 2,327 2,445 2,018 2,045 4,063 4,214
TVS Motors 1,716 1,747 1,982 2,243 2,009 2,451 2,137 1,909 2,706 2,430 2,956 3,150 3,451 6,601 3,304
Others 46,409 44,113 51,435 50,330 50,495 51,942 47,959 48,166 46,976 40,921 45,861 48,404 50,932 99,336 83,712
Total 3Ws 98,273 94,331 110,513 105,495 106,519 122,845 108,332 93,888 107,034 94,205 99,385 99,784 104,448 204,232 178,394
Yoy change (%) 19.5 4.9 12.9 1.6 0.7 11.5 4.7 (3.6) 6.9 (1.9) (5.7) 24.5 6.3 14.5
Market share (%)
Bajaj Auto 36.2 36.3 35.0 35.8 35.1 39.0 36.1 30.9 36.9 36.8 34.1 32.7 33.1 32.9 36.7
Piaggio 7.1 7.3 7.6 7.0 7.3 7.4 8.2 6.9 7.4 7.1 7.1 6.4 6.0 6.2 7.2
M&M 5.2 5.7 6.8 5.4 6.2 6.7 7.2 6.5 6.7 7.7 7.3 7.2 6.9 7.1 4.9
Atul Auto 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.4
TVS Motors 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.2 1.9
Others 47.2 46.8 46.5 47.7 47.4 42.3 44.3 51.3 43.9 43.4 46.1 48.5 48.8 48.6 46.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Note:
(a) Retail sales do not include sales from Telangana and Lakshadweep

Source: Parivahan Sewa, Kotak Institutional Equities

Kia launched Clavis in May 2025, whereas Tata Motors will unveil Harrier EV in June 2025
PV launch pipeline, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-28E
Manufacturer Model Segment Expected timeline
Tata Motors Harrier EV Large SUV Launched in June 2025
Kia Clavis MPV Launched in May 2025
Honda New WR-V Compact SUV To be launched in FY2026
Hyundai Palisade Large SUV To be launched in FY2026
Hyundai Tucson facelift D-SUV To be launched in January 2026
Hyundai Venue facelift SUV To be launched in October 2025
Kia Carens EV MUV To be launched in July 2025
Mahindra XEV.7e SUV To be launched in FY2026
Maruti Suzuki Baleno facelift Hatchback To be launched in July 2025
Maruti Suzuki Grand Vitara 7-seater SUV To be launched in FY2026
Maruti Suzuki Wagon R Flex Fuel Hatchback To be launched in FY2027
Nissan Gravite MPV To be launched in FY2026
Nissan New Compact SUV Compact SUV To be launched in FY2026
Renault Duster Compact SUV To be launched in FY2027
Renault Kwid Facelift Hatchback To be launched in September 2025
Renault Triber Facelift MPV To be launched in August 2025
Skoda Enyaq Compact SUV To be launched in September 2025
Skoda Elroq Compact SUV To be launched in FY2026
Tata Motors Altroz Facelift Hatchback Launched in May 2025
Tata Motors Altroz EV Hatchback To be launched in FY2026
Tata Motors Avinya EV SUV To be launched in FY2027
Tata Motors Safari EV SUV To be launched in August 2025

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Automobiles & Components

India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 35

Royal Enfield launched Hunter 350 refresh in April 2025

2W launch pipeline, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-28E

Manufacturer Model Segment Expected timeline

Bikes
Classic legends Jawa 42 Premium Launched in September 2024
Bajaj Pulsar N 125 Premium Launched in October 2024
Royal Enfield Interceptor Bear Premium Launched in November 2024
Hero MotoCorp Xtreme 250R Premium Launched in December 2024
Yezdi Roadking Premium To be launched in October 2025
Yamaha XSR 155 Premium To be launched in December 2025
Torq Kratos X Electric To be launched in October 2025
Revolt RV1 Electric Launched in September 2024
Royal Enfield Classic 650 Premium Launched in March 2025
Royal Enfield 2025 Hunter 350 Premium Launched in April 2025
Royal Enfield Flying Flea C6 Electric To be launched in FY2026
Ola Roadster Electric Launched on February 2025
Ola Adventure Electric To be launched in October 2025
Ola Crusier Electric To be launched in October 2025
Scooters
Honda Activa e: Electric Launched in Novemeber 2024
Honda QC1 Electric Launched in Novemeber 2024
Ola Electric S1 Z Electric Launched in Novemeber 2024
Ola Electric S1 Gig Electric Launched in Novemeber 2024
Hero Motorcorp Vida V2 Electric Launched in December 2024
Bajaj Chetak 3501 Electric Launched in December 2024

Source: Carwale, AutoCar, Economic Times, Kotak Institutional Equities

Automobiles & Components

India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 UPDATE

Banks
India
Sector View: Attractive NIFTY-50: 24,717 June 02, 2025

Households continue to trail in deposit growth contribution

Our quarterly deep dive into deposits shows that the weak trends in deposit
flows across banks, regions, and the nature of deposits mobilized have
continued. Household deposits continued to trail overall deposit growth, with
a higher contribution from the financial sector driving growth. Public sector
banks have converged growth rates with private sector banks. Deposit
growth trends are similar across public and private banks.

Key takeaways on deposits

(1) The split in market shares between public and private banks stood at 60:35
(Exhibit 1). Public banks have converged on growth rates with private banks,
with the latter slowing down in recent quarters. (2) Private banks have about
85% of their deposits coming from metro/urban regions, while for public banks,
it is 70% (Exhibit 3). (3) The share of individual and non-individual deposits
remained unchanged at about 50% (Exhibit 6). (4) The financial sector has
reported a higher growth rate this quarter compared to other segments . (5)
Public banks have about 70% share of the deposits from households; for private

Private Circulation Only. This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities Act of 1933
banks, it is 55%. (6) Households dominate deposits at about 60% (Exhibit 8),
but the growth is slow. Individual deposits are higher for public banks, while
non-individual share is higher for private banks.

Key takeaways on CASA and term deposits

(1) Savings deposits are a lot more diversified than current and term deposits
(Exhibit 10). (2) Savings growth was slower in urban and metro markets, while
current account deposits were weak in all regions; term deposit growth was
strong across regions. (3) Corporate deposits’ shift to term deposits has
slowed (Exhibit 12). (4) Term deposits saw similar growth in non-individuals
over individuals across regions (Exhibit 14). (5) Public banks have maintained
their market share. (6) Term deposits for private banks are largely from
metro/urban regions. (7) Individuals have a preference for Rs0.1-1.5 mn, while
non-individuals are higher in the >10 mn ticket size (Exhibits 19, 20 and 21). (8)
65% of the overall deposits contracted are in the 1-3-year buckets (Exhibit 23).
(9) 4QFY25 saw an increase in the 7-8% interest-rate bucket (Exhibits 24 and
25), with some signs of slowdown in non-individual deposit movement.

Quality of growth is still not yet comforting

Overall, the internals of deposits mobilized are still not comforting. Households
are still growing lower than overall deposit growth, and there was a higher
contribution of growth coming from the financial sector, which tends to be a lot
more volatile and wholesale. Public banks are starting to defend their market
share in overall deposits, suggesting that the intensity to gain market share for
private banks is likely to be a lot more challenging. However, despite all these
challenges, private banks have been cutting deposit rates a lot more
aggressively to reduce the pressure on NIMs. This implies that they are
comfortable ceding growth at the expense of NIM.

Full sector coverage on KINSITE

M B Mahesh, CFA Nischint Chawathe Ashlesh Sonje, CFA Abhijeet Sakhare Varun Palacharla

Nikhil Suresh
 37

Public banks have lost ~200 bps in market share largely to private banks since 4QFY23
Market share break-up of deposits across banks, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%)

Public Foreign Private SFB

100 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

80 34 34 35 35 35 35 36 36 36

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
60

40
61 61 60 59 59 58 58 58 58
20

-
4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 4QFY25

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Private banks have a much larger presence in urban and metropolitan markets compared to public banks
Break-up of deposits by regions and bank-wise, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%)
Rural Semi-urban

Public Foreign Private SFB Public Foreign Private SFB

100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 15
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 28
1 80
80
0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1
60 60

40 86 86 85 85 85 85 84 84 84 40
73 73 73 72 71 71 71 71 70

20 20

- -
2QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

3QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

3QFY24

2QFY25

4QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25
2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

4QFY25

Urban Metropolitan

Public Foreign Private SFB Public Foreign Private SFB

100 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 100 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

80 33 33 34 34 35 35 35 35 35 80 39 39 41 41 42 42 42 42 42

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
60 60
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

40 40
65 64 64 63 63 62 62 62 62
52 51 50 50 49 49 49 49 49
20 20

- -
3QFY24

4QFY24

4QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25
2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

4QFY25

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Banks
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 38

Public banks have a marginally better deposit mix compared to private banks
Break-up of deposits by regions and bank-wise, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%)
Public banks Foreign banks

Rural Semi-urban Urban Metropolitan Rural Semi-urban Urban Metropolitan

100 100

80 46 46 46 45 46 45 46 46 46 80

60 60
91 91 91 92 90 89 89 88 88

40 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 22 40

20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 20
13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
- -
1QFY24

2QFY24

4QFY24

2QFY25

4QFY25
4QFY23

3QFY24

1QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25
Private banks Small finance banks

Rural Semi-urban Urban Metropolitan Rural Semi-urban Urban Metropolitan

100 100

80 80
52 52 52 52 53 53 55 55 56
63 63 64 64 64 64 64 64 64
60 60

40 40
29 29 29 30 29 29 28 28 27
21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
20 20
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 14
- 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 - 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
1QFY24

3QFY24

1QFY25

3QFY25
4QFY23

2QFY24

4QFY24

2QFY25

4QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Banks
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 39

About 60% of the overall deposits are with public banks while 35% are with private banks
Break-up of deposits across banks, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%)
Government Private Financial

Public Private Foreign SFB Payment Public Private Foreign SFB Payment Public Private Foreign SFB Payment
100 100 100
14 19 19 20 20 21 20 20 20 21 20 20 19
21 22 22 23 22
80 80 80
48 49 49 49 50 50 49 48 51
60 60 46 60
46 45 46 46 47 46 46 46

40 86 81 80 79 40 40
78 78 77 76 78

20 20 20 43 42 42 42 41 40 42 43 41
34 34 34 33 33 32 33 33 34

- - -
4QFY23

3QFY24

2QFY25
1QFY24

2QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25

1QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY25
4QFY23

2QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY24

2QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

1QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25
Household Others Sector

Public Private Foreign SFB Payment Public Private Foreign SFB Payment Public Private Foreign SFB Payment
100 100 100
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

80 30 30 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 80 80 34 34 35 35 36 36 36 36 36
51 52 52 53 53 54 54 54 54
60 60 60

40 40 40
68 68 67 67 66 66 66 66 66 60 60 59 59 58 58 58 58 58
20 20 43 42 41 41 39 38 38 38 20
37

- - -

1QFY24

2QFY24

4QFY25
4QFY23

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25
4QFY23

3QFY24

2QFY25
1QFY24

2QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25

2QFY24

3QFY24
4QFY23

1QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Banks
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 40

Private banks have about 75% of their deposits coming from metro/urban regions with a higher share from metro regions
Break-up of deposits by regions for various banks, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%)
Public banks Foreign banks

Rural Semi-urban Urban Metropolitan Rural Semi-urban Urban Metropolitan

100 100

80 46 46 46 45 46 45 46 46 46 80

60 60
91 91 91 92 90 89 89 88 88

40 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 22 40

20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 20
13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
- -
1QFY24

2QFY24

4QFY24

2QFY25

4QFY25
4QFY23

3QFY24

1QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25
Private banks Small finance banks

Rural Semi-urban Urban Metropolitan Rural Semi-urban Urban Metropolitan

100 100

80 80
52 52 52 52 53 53 55 55 56
63 63 64 64 64 64 64 64 64
60 60

40 40
29 29 29 30 29 29 28 28 27
21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
20 20
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 14
- 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 - 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
1QFY24

3QFY24

1QFY25

3QFY25
4QFY23

2QFY24

4QFY24

2QFY25

4QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

The shares of individual and non-individual have broadly remained unchanged in the past few quarters
Break-up of deposits across banks between individual and non-individual deposits, March fiscal
year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%)

Individual Non-individual
100

80
47 47 47 47 48 47 48 48 49

60

40

53 53 53 53 52 53 52 52 51
20

-
4QFY23

1QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25
2QFY24

3QFY24

2QFY25

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Banks
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 41

Share of individual deposits across banks, March Share of non-individual deposits across banks,
fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%) March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%)
Public Private Foreign SFB Payment Public Private Foreign SFB Payment
100 100

28 29 30 30 30 31 31 31 31
80 80
39 39 40 40 41 41 41 41 41
60 60

40 40
70 69 68 68 68 67 67 67 67

20 51 51 50 50 49 49 49 49 49
20

- -

4QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25
Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Individual deposits are largely with public banks and the shift is lot more gradual in nature
Break-up of deposits by ownership, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%)
Public banks Private banks Foreign banks
Individual Non-individual Individual Non-individual Individual Non-individual
100 100 100

80 40 39 39 39 40 39 40 40 41 80 80
56 54 54 54 56 54 55 55 56

60 60 60
91 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92

40 40 40
60 61 61 61 60 61 60 60 59
20 20 44 46 46 46 44 46 45 45 44 20

9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
- - -
4QFY23

3QFY24

2QFY25

3QFY25
1QFY24

2QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

4QFY25

3QFY24

4QFY24

3QFY25

4QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

3QFY25

4QFY25
2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

Small finance banks Payment banks Sector

Individual Non-individual Individual Non-individual Individual Non-individual
100 100
100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

37 32 34 33 35 36 38 80
80 38 40 80 47 47 47 47 48 47 48 48 49

60 60 60

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

40 40 40
63 68 66 67 65 64 62 62 60
53 53 53 53 52 53 52 52 51
20 20 20

- - -
4QFY23

3QFY24

2QFY25

3QFY25
1QFY24

2QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

4QFY25

2QFY24

3QFY24

3QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

4QFY25

4QFY23

3QFY24

4QFY24

4QFY25
1QFY24

2QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Banks
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 42

Savings are a lot more distributed than current and term deposits
Break-up of deposits by CASA and term deposits across regions, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%)
Current Savings

Rural Semi-urban Urban Metro Rural Semi-urban Urban Metro

100 100

80 80 40 40 40 39 39 39 40 39 39

68 69 68 67 68 68 68 68 69
60 60

23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
40 40

22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
18 17 18 18 18 17 17 17 17
20 20

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16
- 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 -

4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

2QFY25

3QFY25
2QFY24

1QFY25

4QFY25

Term Total

Rural Semi-urban Urban Metro Rural Semi-urban Urban Metro

100 100

80 80
59 59 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 54 54 54 54 54 54 55 54 55

60 60

40 40
22 22 21 22 21 21 21 21 21
21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
20 20
15 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
7 7 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
- -
4QFY23

1QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

2QFY25

3QFY25
2QFY24

1QFY25

4QFY25

1QFY24

2QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25
4QFY23

3QFY24

2QFY25

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Banks
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 43

A largely unchanged trend on the contribution drivers for CASA deposits in recent quarters
Break-up of CASA by ownership of deposits, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%)
Current account deposits Savings account deposits

Government Corporate Financial Household Others Government Corporate Financial Household Others
100 100

80 35 35 36 37 36 36 35 35 33 80

60 11 12 60
11 11 10 10 10 11 11 80 80 81 81 80 82 81
82 82

40 40
43 42 42 42 42 43 42 43 42
20 20
0
4 0
3 1
3 1
2 1
3 1 1 1 1
2
2 2 2
- -

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

3QFY25

4QFY25
1QFY24

3QFY24
4QFY23

2QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25

Term deposits Total deposits

Government Corporate Financial Household Others Government Corporate Financial Household Others
100 100

80 80

55 55 55 55 54 54 54 54 53 61 61 61 61 60 61 60 60 59
60 60

40 40
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7
20 21 21 22 21 22 22 22 22 22 20 18 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18

- -
4QFY24

3QFY25

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

4QFY25

4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

3QFY25

4QFY25
Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Banks
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 44

The only noticeable segment in shift in savings comes from the corporate sector with a greater preference to shift to term deposits
Break-up of CASA deposits across deposits, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%)
Government Corporate Financial
Current Savings Term Current Savings Term Current Savings Term
100 100 100

80 80 80
52 53 54 54 53 56 56 56 54
67 71 73 74 72 74
60 60 75 75 75 60 79 80 79 81 80 81 81 82 80

40 40 40
38 38 38 37 37 35 35 35 34 7 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3
20 20 20 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
2
25 24 22 22 23 22 22 22 23 19 18 18 16 17 16 16 15 17
10 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 12
0 0 0
4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25

1QFY24

3QFY24
4QFY23

2QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25
Household Others Sector
Current Savings Term Current Savings Term Current Savings Term
100 100 100

80 80 80
52 53 54 54 54 54 55 56 55 57 59 60 60 60 61 61 62 62
60 71 72 72 73 73 74 74 74 74 60
60

40 40 40
42 42 41 40 40 40 40 39 39 32
20 32 31 31 30 30 29 29 28
20 20
26 25 24 24 23 23 23 23 23
0 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 10
0 3 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 0
3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25

1QFY24

3QFY24
4QFY23

2QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Seeing better trends in mobilizing deposits for the age profile 40 and above
Break-up of deposits by age profile, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25
Savings Term Total

4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24 4QFY23 1QFY24 2QFY24 3QFY24 4QFY24
1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 4QFY25 1QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 4QFY25
45
451QFY25 2QFY25 3QFY25 4QFY25 40

36 32 36

27 24 27

18 16 18

9 9
8
-
- -
<10

60-70
10-15

15-18

18-25

25-40

40-60

>70

<10

15-18
10-15

18-25

25-40

40-60

60-70

>70
10-15

15-18

18-25

25-40

40-60

60-70
<10

>70

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Banks
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 45

Term deposits remains a mainstay source of growth

The key takeaways from the term deposit data: (1) Public banks have ~60% share in deposits, but have
lost ~200 bps since 4QFY23, largely to private banks. Private banks have a higher concentration of
deposits in metropolitan markets compared to public banks. (2) Deposit mobilization by banks remained
skewed in the 1-3-year bucket and it continues to rise consistently. (b) There is about 5% point jump in
the 7-8% interest-rate bucket, suggesting we are moving closer to headline deposit rates. We should see
deposit rates closer to peak levels.

Underlying trends on term deposits comparable to previous few quarters

The overall trends in term deposit mobilization are not showing any major deviation from previous
trends: (1) The share of individuals in the overall term deposits is marginally lower qoq at ~50% of the
overall term deposits. (2) 80% of the overall term deposits comes from urban/metropolitan market. (3)
Private banks are making steady inroads into term deposits. (4) Trend on average ticket size of term
deposits and broadly we see an upward bias of ticket size. 80% of the overall term deposits is either in
Rs0.1-1.5 mn or >Rs10 mn. (5) As highlighted previously, term deposits are mobilized mostly in the 1-3-
year bucket window. The trend of this window being preferred is fairly uniform across regions. (6) About
60% of the deposits are in the 7-8% interest rate bucket. Note that the marginal deposit rate for 1-year
deposits is in this bucket and the contribution of these deposits is ~65% of the overall term deposits.

1-3 year remains the preferred source for raising deposits

Consumers exhibit a preference to place deposits in the 1-3-year category. As highlighted previously, a
part of it can probably be explained by the interest rates offered where the interest rate differential is
probably pushing back consumers in placing longer-term deposits. Lenders are also a lot more
comfortable in this bucket given that the linkages to loan yields are getting broken with the introduction
of EBLR-linked loans. This is the first cycle of the current interest-rate regime, and we perhaps need a bit
more time to understand the implications of the nature of liabilities that is getting originated by banks.

Deposit rates may have peaked for the system looking at the weighted average cost of term deposits
A comparison of current term deposit interest rates and the headline rates offered by banks suggests
that we are closer to peak deposit rates for the system. Incremental changes in term deposits are likely
to be of a smaller quantum. However, there is likely intense competition to source deposits, especially
that is lot more retail in nature given the linkages to LCR. A higher share of non-individual that is non-
operational in nature tends to have negative implications in deploying it. We do believe that the outlook
for NIM is a bit more favorable than our forecasts. We are not sure if we are likely to reverse the current
stance on policy rates immediately. In addition, for a meaningful impact on NIM, we would need a
sizeable cut in policy rates and/or frequent reduction in rates—both appear unlikely at this stage.

A broadly unchanged mix with the share of individuals and non-individuals at ~50% each
Break-up of term deposits, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%)
Non-individual Individual
100

80
52 52 51 52 51 51 50 50 50

60

40

48 48 49 48 49 49 50 50 50
20

0
1QFY24

1QFY25

4QFY25
4QFY23

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

2QFY25

3QFY25

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Banks
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 46

45% of the term deposits from individuals comes from 75% of term deposits from non-individuals comes from
metropolitan markets metropolitan markets
Break-up of term deposits (individual), March fiscal Break-up of term deposits (non-individual), March
year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%) fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%)
Rural Semi-urban Urban Metropolitan Rural Semi-urban Urban Metropolitan
100
100

80 80
45 45 46 46 46 45 45 45 45
60 75 76 76 76 76 75 75 75 75
60

40 26 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 40

20 18 18 18 20
18 18 18 18 18 18 17 16 17 16 16 17 17 16 17
11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 - 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
-

1QFY24

2QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25
4QFY23

3QFY24

2QFY25
4QFY23

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

4QFY25
1QFY24

2QFY24

2QFY25

3QFY25

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

60% of the overall term deposits comes from metropolitan and 20% from urban markets
Break-up of term deposits by region, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%)

Rural Semi-urban Urban Metropolitan

100

80
60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
60

40
21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
20
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
- 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Banks
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 47

Individuals have a higher preference for Rs0.1-1.5 mn while non-individual is higher at >10 mn ticket size
Break-up of term deposits (individual), March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%)

< 0.1 mn 0.1-1.5 mn 1.5mn - 10 mn >10 mn

100

80 43 43 44 44 45 45 45 45 46

60
17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
40

20 36 36 35 35 35 35 34 34 34

- 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3

2QFY24

3QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

4QFY24

4QFY25
Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

60% of the deposits is in the Rs1.5-10 mn ticket size 85% of term deposits from non-individuals is higher ticket size
Break-up of term deposits (individual), March fiscal Break-up of term deposits (non-individual), March
year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%) fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%)

< 0.1 mn 0.1-1.5 mn 1.5mn - 10 mn >10 mn < 0.1 mn 0.1-1.5 mn 1.5mn - 10 mn >10 mn
100 100 5 6
5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7
7
23 23 24 24 80 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 25 25
80 23 24 24 25 25

60 60

40 64 64 63 63 63 63 63 62 62 40 64 64 63 63 63 63 63 62 62

20 20

8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6
- -
4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25

4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Banks
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 48

65% of the overall deposits contracted are in the 1-3-year buckets

Break-up of deposits by tenor (total), March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%)
Rural Semi-urban Urban

<90 day 91-180 day 6-12M 1-3Y 3-5Y 5Y+ <90 day 91-180 day 6-12M 1-3Y 3-5Y 5Y+ <90 day 91-180 day 6-12M 1-3Y 3-5Y 5Y+
100 100 100
11 10 10 9 9 9 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7
13 12 11 6
7 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 6
9 8 8 7 7 9 9 9 8 7 7
11 10 9 80
80 80

60 60 60

73 74 73 74 75 75 77 71 71 72 73 74 73 74 75
72 72 73 73 73 75 72 73 69
69 71 71 40
40 40

20 20 20
5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5
4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
- - -

4QFY23

3QFY25
1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

4QFY25

2QFY24

1QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25
4QFY23

2QFY24
1QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25

Metropolitan Overall

<90 day 91-180 day 6-12M 1-3Y 3-5Y 5Y+ <90 day 91-180 day 6-12M 1-3Y 3-5Y 5Y+
100 6 5 5 5 100
7 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6
6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5
7 7 6 6 6 5 5
7
80 80

60 61 62 62 62 63 62 63 64 60
61
64 65 66 66 67 67 67 68 68
40 40

20 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 9
6 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 20 8
6 7 7 7 8 7 7 9 8
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
- 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 9
-
4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25

4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Term deposit book contracted in metro markets tends to have a shorter duration compared to rural and semi-urban markets
Break-up of deposits by ticket size (total), March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%)
<90 days 91-180 days 6-12 Months

Rural Semi-urban Urban Metropolitan Rural Semi-urban Urban Metropolitan Rural Semi-urban Urban Metropolitan
100 100
100

80 80
80

60 78 79 80 80 79 80 79 79 81 74 75 73 74 72 73 73 74 74
60 83 82 82 80 80 79 60
83 84 83

40 40 40

20 20 20 15 14 14 14 14 14
16 14 14 14 14 14
11 11 12 12 12 15 14 14 13 13 13
11 11 12 11
6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8
3 3 3 3 5 5 5
- - - 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 4
1QFY24

1QFY25

4QFY25
4QFY23

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

2QFY25

3QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25

2QFY24

3QFY24

3QFY25

4QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

1-3 years 3-5 years >5 years

Rural Semi-urban Urban Metropolitan Rural Semi-urban Urban Metropolitan Rural Semi-urban Urban Metropolitan
100 100 100

80 80 80
51 50 52 52 52 53 53 53 53 49 49 51 51 51 52 51 50 50
56 56 57 56 57 56 56 56 56
60 60 60

40 40 25 40
25 24 24 24 24 23 23 23 25 25 24 25 25
23 23 23 24 24 24 24
23 23 23 23 23 23
20 20 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 20 15 16 15
13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 15 15 15 15 15 15
10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 - 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
- -
1QFY24

1QFY25

4QFY25
4QFY23

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

2QFY25

3QFY25
1QFY24

2QFY24

1QFY25

4QFY25
4QFY23

3QFY24

4QFY24

2QFY25

3QFY25

2QFY24

2QFY25

3QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

4QFY25

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Banks
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 49

We are closer to the end of the re-pricing of term deposits with ~65% of the book at marginal deposit rate
Break-up of term deposits by interest rate buckets, March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%)

<3 3 to <4 4 to <5 5 to <6 6 to <7 7 to <8 8 to <9 >= 9

100

80 30
41
50
56 59 61
60 63 65 67
28
40 30
29
32 25 22
20 23 22 21
20 19
13 10 8 7 6 5 5
- 1QFY24

4QFY24

4QFY25
4QFY23

2QFY24

3QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25
Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

65% of book is 7% or higher for individual deposits About 65% of book is 7% or higher for non-individual deposits
Break-up of term deposits for (individuals), March Break-up of term deposits for (non-individuals),
fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%) March fiscal year-ends, 4QFY23-4QFY25 (%)

<3 3 to <4 4 to <5 5 to <6 <3 3 to <4 4 to <5 5 to <6

6 to <7 7 to <8 8 to <9 >= 9 6 to <7 7 to <8 8 to <9 >= 9
100 100

80 25 80 35
37 45
46 54 60
53 56 62 64 65 68
60 59 61 62 60 70
27 64
28
40 29 40 30
30 27
27 25 24 23 19
20 39 24 20 22 21 19
24 22 21 18
25 15 7
14 11 9
11 9 7 7 6 6 6
6 5 4
- -
4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25
4QFY23

1QFY24

2QFY24

3QFY24

4QFY24

1QFY25

2QFY25

3QFY25

4QFY25

Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities Source: RBI, Kotak Institutional Equities

Banks
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 UPDATE

Electric Utilities
India
Sector View: Cautious NIFTY-50: 24,717 June 03, 2025

Distorted weather patterns impacting demand

India’s power sector closed with a modest 3% yoy growth in power demand
in FY2025 on the back of an unfavorable base (7.8% yoy growth in FY2024)
and a normal monsoon. The unseasonal rains in the month of May 2025 will
likely impact demand in 1HFY26 as well, although we maintain the medium-
term growth trajectory around the 5% mark. Capacity addition did pick up
pace in FY2025, with 33 GW of installations, led by the renewable sector (29
GW). However, earnings growth for listed utilities disappointed on account of
(1) execution slippages in the commissioning of new capacities and (2) lower
merchant tariffs for companies such as JSW Energy, although cushioned by
non-recurring incomes and/or favorable tariff orders.

Weak demand growth for FY2025, not so encouraging start to FY2026

Power demand in India grew 3% yoy for FY2025 to 1,683 BU, considerably lower
than the 7.8% yoy growth in FY2024. While FY2025 started on a stronger note
with a severe heat wave (+7.5% yoy growth in 1QFY25), this was followed by a
surplus monsoon, leading to (-)0.7% yoy growth in power demand in 2QFY25,

Private Circulation Only. This document may only be distributed to QIBs (qualified institutional buyers) as defined under rule 144A of the Securities A ct of 1933
even as 2HFY25 saw some recovery at 2.8% yoy. FY2026 has also started on a
soft note, with flat YTD (Apr and May) power demand, again impacted by
unseasonal rains across the country and a strong base. Notwithstanding the
short-term weather patterns and the base effect, we highlight that the power
demand in India is closely linked to the GDP growth, leading us to maintain our
5.6% CAGR estimate in power demand over FY2025-30E.

Capacity additions picking up pace but still some room for improvement
India added an impressive 33 GW of power capacities in FY2025 (28.7 GW RE,
4.2 GW coal, 0.8 GW hydro), improving upon the pick-up seen in FY2024, with
26 GW addition (18 GW RE, 6 GW coal). Both are a marked improvement over
the 15 GW average annual capacity addition in the preceding six years. India
currently has 34 GW of under-construction coal capacity to be commissioned
in the next 6-7 years but would need to further accelerate the pace of renewable
capacity addition to sustain the 5-6% demand CAGR. We expect capacity
addition to improve further to 41/40 GW in 2026/27 and 46 GW in 2030, largely
led by renewables.

Earnings print was weak; capacity targets were missed in FY2025

Our coverage universe of electric utilities reported modest earnings
performance, with most companies missing capacity addition targets during
the year, coupled with weak merchant tariffs (down 16% yoy) further weighing
on the earnings performance. Acquisitions by companies: NTPC Green’s
acquisition of Ayana (2.1 GW) and JSW Energy’s KSK Mahanadi (1.8 GW)
brought some respectability to capacity addition targets. Favorable regulatory
orders supported the earnings of Tata Power and NTPC. Valuations have come
off from the peaks seen in FY2024 but still do not fully factor in the execution
risks that could impede earnings growth.

Full sector coverage on KINSITE

Murtuza Arsiwalla Abhishek Khanna Anshika Gupta

 51

2025 was a year of misses for our coverage universe; reported earnings distorted by one-offs
Despite the initial euphoria, we note that the absence of earnings growth, execution slippages and weak
power demand have led to modest stock performance. Our coverage companies continued to see
modest earnings in FY2025, with delays in the commissioning of new capacities.

Among the public utilities, NTPC added 4 GW capacity (incl. 2 GW through acquisition), against 6 GW of
guidance. Consolidated PAT of Rs240 bn rose 17% yoy, aided by Rs37 bn (up 270% yoy) of regulatory
income. Adjusted PAT (standalone) of Rs180 bn rose 10% yoy on the back of an increase in regulated
equity to Rs909 bn (up 4% yoy).

NHPC was not able to pull through the commissioning of Parbati III (800 MW) or any units of Subansiri
(Lower) in FY2025 against their guidance of 1.5 GW capacity addition. NHPC has commissioned Parbati
III in April 2025 that will likely aid earnings growth for FY2026. For FY2025 PAT of Rs30 bn (down 17%
yoy) was impacted by one-off finance and employee costs.

Among the private players, JSW Energy reported EBITDA of Rs52.2 bn (down 3% yoy), which was
impacted by lower short-term tariffs, while PAT of Rs19.5 bn (+13% yoy) was aided by higher other
income (treasury gains and LPS payment). JSW Energy was able to add incremental capacity of 3.6 GW
in FY2025, including the acquisition of KSK Mahanadi (1.8 GW).

TPWR’s consolidated PAT of Rs40.9 bn (up 20% yoy) in FY2025 was aided by (1) improved contribution
from Odisha discoms, (2) the module and cell business and (3) favorable tariff order in the Delhi
distribution business (Rs3 bn) and regulatory benefits at Mundra (Rs3 bn).

CESC reported consolidated FY2025 PAT of Rs13.7 bn (flat yoy), as modest growth in the standalone
and generation assets was offset by losses in Malegaon distribution entity. ACME Solar saw strong
earnings growth in 4QFY25 owing to capacity additions, while the FY2025 earnings growth was impacted
by the sale of assets in FY2024.

PWGR reported PAT of Rs155 bn (down 0.3% yoy) impacted by a miss on capitalization (Rs90 bn against
Rs180 bn guidance).

Power demand in India rose 3% yoy in FY2025

Power demand in India, March fiscal year-ends, 2015-26 (BU)
(BU) Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Average Total
2015 88.9 91.4 93.9 94.6 94.7 89.2 91.4 85.5 87.2 87.2 79.5 85.4 89.1 1,069
2016 85.8 96.2 90.9 96.4 97.4 97.7 98.5 85.5 89.4 91.5 89.1 96.1 92.9 1,114
2017 98.7 99.4 96.8 96.8 99.0 99.0 96.9 87.8 91.8 92.5 86.7 98.8 95.4 1,144
2018 102.6 107.3 100.2 102.8 105.7 102.5 101.3 95.2 96.9 100.6 91.9 106.4 101.1 1,213
2019 104.3 112.3 109.0 110.3 112.0 109.6 111.5 99.9 101.7 101.7 93.1 108.7 106.2 1,274
2020 110.2 119.7 117.4 114.9 110.9 108.0 98.1 94.6 100.8 105.3 103.5 98.8 106.9 1,282
2021 85.6 102.7 105.6 112.4 109.8 112.6 109.6 97.9 106.6 110.8 104.6 122.0 106.7 1,280
2022 118.4 110.4 114.7 124.8 129.4 114.7 114.7 99.6 109.7 111.8 109.1 125.0 115.2 1,382
2023 134.7 136.4 136.4 128.2 130.7 126.9 113.3 112.5 122.3 127.5 119.1 127.0 126.2 1,515
2024 132.5 136.7 141.3 144.3 152.2 141.8 139.8 119.4 123.3 135.0 128.1 139.0 136.1 1,633
2025 144.4 144.3 152.7 150.2 144.3 140.8 139.2 123.8 129.6 136.4 130.6 146.9 140.3 1,683
2026 147.4 147.4
Average 112.8 114.3 114.4 116.0 116.9 113.0 110.4 100.1 105.4 109.1 103.2 114.0

CAGR (2015-24) 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.8 5.4 5.3 4.8 3.8 3.9 5.0 5.4 5.6 4.8
CAGR (2020-24) 4.7 3.4 4.7 5.9 8.2 7.1 9.3 6.0 5.2 6.4 5.5 8.9 6.2
Growth (2024) (1.6) 0.3 3.6 12.5 16.4 11.7 23.4 6.1 0.8 5.9 7.6 9.4 7.8
Growth (2025) 9.0 5.6 8.1 4.1 (5.2) (0.7) (0.4) 3.7 5.1 1.0 2.0 5.7 3.0
Growth (2026) 2.1

Source: CEA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Electric Utilities
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 52

The western and southern India saw weaker power demand in FY2025 owing to surplus monsoon
Power demand in India, March fiscal year-ends, 2024-25 (MU)
Energy demand (MU)
State/region Mar-25 Mar-24 yoy (%) YTD FY2025 YTD FY2024 yoy (%)
Northern Region 36,740 34,700 5.9 505,317 476,854 6.0

Delhi 2,319 2,217 4.6 36,906 35,500 4.0

Haryana 4,544 4,291 5.9 68,002 63,983 6.3

Punjab 4,853 4,577 6.0 74,995 69,533 7.9
Rajasthan 9,284 8,929 4.0 111,640 107,423 3.9
Uttar Pradesh 11,510 10,550 9.1 160,517 148,792 7.9
Western Region 49,099 46,012 6.7 528,584 524,123 0.9
Chattisgarh 4,426 3,969 11.5 43,569 40,627 7.2

Gujarat 13,637 12,973 5.1 151,853 149,098 1.8

Madhya Pradesh 9,111 8,046 13.2 103,297 103,322 (0.0)

Maharashtra 19,361 18,766 3.2 203,184 206,830 (1.8)
Southern Region 43,041 41,429 3.9 429,321 420,457 2.1
Andhra Pradesh 7,584 7,066 7.3 79,027 80,320 (1.6)
Karnataka 10,396 9,925 4.7 94,188 94,286 (0.1)
Tamil Nadu 11,902 12,176 (2.3) 130,786 126,443 3.4
Eastern Region 16,471 15,401 6.9 199,495 191,918 3.9
Bihar 3,217 2,896 11.1 44,237 41,515 6.6
Orissa 3,683 3,773 (2.4) 42,503 41,231 3.1
West Bengal 6,087 5,303 14.8 71,328 67,577 5.6
North Eastern Region 1,554 1,497 3.8 20,408 20,093 1.6
All India 146,904 139,040 5.7 1,683,125 1,633,446 3.0

Source: CEA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Peak power also rose 3% yoy in FY2025

Peak power demand in India, March fiscal year-ends, 2015-26 (GW)
(GW) Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Annual
2015 142 142 148 146 146 146 146 137 139 139 138 139 148
2016 140 144 145 143 148 151 151 138 136 141 142 144 151
2017 145 148 145 140 152 159 154 148 152 144 149 152 159
2018 160 158 156 157 164 162 162 151 153 159 159 162 164
2019 162 172 172 170 173 177 173 163 164 164 162 169 177
2020 177 184 184 177 179 175 165 156 172 172 179 171 184
2021 133 167 167 172 169 177 171 161 184 190 190 186 190
2022 183 169 194 203 198 181 180 167 184 193 194 202 203
2023 216 206 212 192 197 200 187 188 206 213 211 209 216
2024 216 222 224 209 241 243 222 205 214 224 222 222 243
2025 224 250 245 227 216 231 219 208 224 237 238 235 250
2026 235 231 235
Average 168 172 170 166 169 171 166 157 165 169 170 171

CAGR (2015-24) 4.8 5.1 4.7 4.1 5.7 5.8 4.8 4.6 4.9 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.7
CAGR (2020-24) 5.1 4.8 5.1 4.2 7.7 8.6 7.7 7.0 5.6 6.9 5.5 6.8 7.2
Growth (2024) 0.1 7.6 5.5 8.7 22.6 21.3 18.7 8.8 3.6 5.4 5.1 6.0 12.6
Growth (2025) 3.6 12.8 9.3 8.6 (10.2) (4.9) (1.3) 1.2 4.8 5.9 7.3 6.0 2.9
Growth (2026) 5.0 (7.6)

Source: CEA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Electric Utilities
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 53

Merchant tariffs came off in FY2025 owing to the modest power demand
Merchant tariffs (day ahead market) on IEX, March fiscal year-ends, 2016-26 (Rs/ kwh)

Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Average
2016 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.7 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.7
2017 2.9 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.4
2018 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.5 3.1 4.1 4.1 3.5 3.0 3.2 3.2 4.0 3.3
2019 4.0 4.7 3.7 3.5 3.3 4.7 5.9 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.9
2020 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.5 3.0
2021 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.4 4.1 2.8
2022 3.7 2.8 3.1 2.9 5.1 4.4 8.0 3.1 3.5 3.4 4.4 8.2 4.4
2023 11.4 7.3 6.9 5.8 5.3 5.9 4.0 4.7 5.4 6.8 6.8 5.4 6.3
2024 5.6 4.7 5.4 4.5 6.9 6.2 6.5 4.0 4.5 5.8 4.9 3.9 5.2
2025 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.0 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.5 3.9 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.5
2026 4.4 3.7 4.1
Average 4.4 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 3.3 3.4 3.8 3.8 4.1

Source: CEA, Kotak Institutional Equities

We expect 5.6% CAGR in power demand over FY2025-30E

Power demand and supply in India, March fiscal year-ends, 2015-30E (MU, MW, %)
CAGR
2015 2020 2025 2030E (2025-30E)
Energy requirement
Total requirement (MU) 1,067,085 1,282,274 1,693,959 2,227,968 5.6

Energy availability
Capacity (MW)
Hydro 41,267 45,699 47,728 53,928 2.5
Coal 164,636 205,135 221,813 246,353 2.1
Gas 23,062 24,955 24,533 24,533 –
Diesel 1,200 510 589 589 –
Nuclear 5,780 6,780 8,180 9,580 3.2
Renewable 31,692 87,028 172,368 350,487 15.3
Capacity (MW) 267,637 370,106 475,212 685,470 7.6
Generation (MU)
Hydro 129,111 155,853 147,587 187,212 4.9
Coal 835,838 961,123 1,329,191 1,472,132 2.1
Gas 41,075 48,491 33,723 36,535 1.6
Diesel 1,407 146 433 413 (0.9)
Nuclear 35,973 44,957 56,528 66,203 3.2
Renewable 61,785 136,832 255,009 595,871 18.5
Gross Generation 1,105,189 1,347,401 1,822,471 2,358,365 5.3
Less: Auxilliary consumption 81,242 76,771 130,397 156,948 3.8
Add: Bhutan Imports 5,008 5,818 4,956 6,206 4.6
Total availability (MU) 1,028,955 1,276,448 1,692,369 2,207,623 5.5
Energy deficit (%) 3.6 0.5 0.1 0.9

Utilization (%)
Hydro 36 39 36 40
Coal 62 54 69 69
Gas 21 22 14 17
Diesel 13 3 5 8
Nuclear 78 76 79 79
Renewable 23 19 18 21
Overall (%) 49 42 45 41

Source: CEA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Electric Utilities
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 54

Capacity addition picked up in FY2024 and 2025, led by renewables

Capacity addition by source, March fiscal year-ends, 2008-25 (GW)

Coal Others Renewable

40
35 33
30
29
30 26 26
23 25 7
25
20 2
8 3
20 5 3 17
18 16 17 29
14 5 14 14 18
15 11 12
11
5
10 18 18 19 21 8 12 9 15
6 5 5 3 7 15
15 2
5 10 0
5 3 7 7 5 6
4 4 4 4
0 2 1 1
2008

2009

2010

2011

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016
Source: CEA, Kotak Institutional Equities

475 GW of installed capacity in India as of March 2025

Installed capacity by source and ownership, March 2025 (GW)

Source: CEA, Kotak Institutional Equities

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India Research

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 55

We expect a further pick-up in capacity addition in the years ahead

Capacity addition by source, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-30 (GW)
Coal Others Renewable

50 46
41 42
40 40
40

30
31 40
34 36 38
20

10
7 5 6
0 4 4
2026

2027

2028

2029

2030
Source: CEA, Kotak Institutional Equities

34 GW of under-construction coal capacities in India

Under-construction coal capacity, April 2024 (GW)

Under-construction coal capacities (GW)

Private, 4.8

Central, 18.1

State, 11.0

Source: CEA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Electric Utilities
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 56

Summary of 4QFY25/FY2025 results

NTPC: NTPC reported standalone PAT of Rs58 bn (up 22% yoy, 23% qoq) for 4QFY25, aided by
regulatory earnings of Rs21 bn (Rs0.2 bn in 4QFY24 and (-) Rs3.6 bn in 3QFY25), primarily on account
of deferred taxes and exchange rate variations. Adjusted PAT stood at Rs50 bn (down 2% yoy, up 8%
qoq) on regulated equity of Rs909 bn (+4% yoy, +1% qoq). Core ROE (standalone) at 15.3% was weak
(17.1% each in 4QFY24 and 3QFY25). For FY2025, the standalone PAT of Rs196 bn rose 14% yoy,
while adjusted PAT of Rs180 bn rose 10% yoy. On a consolidated basis, NTPC reported 4QFY25 PAT
of Rs76 bn (up 17% yoy, 50% qoq), again aided by higher regulatory income.

Operationally, NTPC reported 4QFY25 generation of 95.2 BU (up 2% yoy, 4.4% qoq), with healthy PLF
for coal-based capacities at 81.2% (79.8% in 4QFY24). NTPC added 3.3 GW of capacity in 4QFY25,
comprising 660 MW thermal (THDC-Khurja) and 2.7 GW renewable, including 2.1 GW in the acquired
Ayana portfolio. NTPC’s commercial capacity now stands at 59,413 MW (+335 MW yoy) on a
standalone basis and 79,930 MW (+3,972 MW yoy) on a consolidated basis. We highlight that the 660
MW coal capacity addition missed the company’s 3 GW addition target.

NTPC Green closed FY2025 with 5.9 GW of capacity, aided by the acquisition of Ayana (4.1 GW
portfolio, comprising 2.1 GW operational capacity) through its 50:50 JV with ONGC. We highlight that
excluding the acquisition, NTPC missed its FY2025 renewable capacity addition target of 3 GW, as it
added just 1.1 GW in the year. For 4QFY25, NTPC Green reported revenue of Rs6.2 bn (+22% yoy, +23%
qoq), EBITDA of Rs5.6 bn (+28% yoy, +32% qoq) and PAT of Rs2.3 bn (+188% yoy, +255% qoq); the
profit was aided by higher other income of Rs1.3 bn (+188% yoy, +69% qoq), likely owing to higher
treasury income from the IPO raise. For FY2025, NTPC Green reported revenue, EBITDA and PAT of
Rs22 bn (+13% yoy), Rs19 bn (+10% yoy) and Rs4.7 bn (+38% yoy). PLF for the solar capacity (incl. the
standalone entity) stood at 24.5% in 4QFY25, in comparison to 23.2% in 4QFY24; FY2025 PLF stood
at 21.7% (21.4% in FY2024).

Power Grid. PWGR continued its streak of weak earnings in 4QFY25, with PAT of Rs41.4 bn (-0.6%
yoy), despite higher consultancy and telecom revenues of Rs5.2 bn (+120% yoy) and Rs3 bn (+21%
yoy), respectively, and supplemented by a tad lower effective tax rate of 18%. Profit was impacted by
losses in JVs (including stake in EESL) of Rs296 mn, in comparison to Rs617 mn profit in 4QFY24.
Transmission revenues of Rs115 bn rose a modest 1.7% yoy, owing to weak capitalization over the
past 12 months, and were also partly impacted by lower prior-period income of Rs632 mn in 4QFY25,
against Rs1.4 bn in 4QFY24. For FY2025, Power Grid reported flat earnings with revenues of Rs460
bn (+1.8% yoy), EBITDA of Rs393 bn (flat yoy) and PAT of Rs155 bn (-0.3% yoy).

PWGR incurred capex of Rs86 bn (+79% yoy, +12% qoq) in 4QFY25, led by the TBCB projects, taking
FY2025 capex to Rs262.5 bn (+110% yoy). Management has now guided for capex of Rs280/350/450
bn in FY2026/27/28E, respectively (unchanged for FY2026/27E), with some upside possible in the
FY2026E capex. Capitalization was weak at Rs15.9 bn (-13% yoy, -53% qoq) in 4QFY25, with the
FY2025 capitalization of Rs90 bn (+18% yoy), missing management’s guidance of Rs180 bn.
Management attributed the weakness to challenges in land acquisition (owing to changes in the
compensation policy by the central government starting June 2024) as well as manpower availability.
PWGR is now targeting capitalization of Rs250/350 bn for FY2026/27E, unchanged versus earlier; it
expects a gradual improvement as the current issues get resolved. Project wins remain very strong—
PWGR won Rs920 bn of projects in FY2025 (54.5% win share). Gross block for the company stood at
Rs2.9 tn (+5% yoy), while projects-in-hand stood at Rs1.55 tn, comprising Rs46.8 bn of regulated return
projects, Rs1.05 tn toward TBCB projects and the balance Rs28 bn toward other projects (cross-
border, data centers, smart metering, etc.).

NHPC. NHPC reported standalone revenues of Rs20.6 bn (+25% yoy), EBITDA of Rs9.2 bn (+24% yoy)
and PAT of Rs8.9 bn (+28% yoy) in 4QFY25. The strong yoy PAT growth in 4QFY25 is due to (1)
negative finance costs of Rs304 mn on a reversal of Rs1 bn, compared with Rs945 mn of costs in
4QFY24, owing to part reversal (through capitalization in the balance sheet) of the amount that was
earlier charged in 3QFY25 related to the disputed contractor claims and (2) a lower effective tax rate
of 17%, compared with a 38% tax rate in 4QFY24. PAT grew, despite lower rate-regulated income that
declined 84% yoy to Rs262 mn and lower other income that declined 33% yoy to Rs4 bn in 4QFY25.
We further note that NHPC received insurance claims (damages and business interruption) due to the
flash floods in the Teesta River in October 2023, amounting to Rs1.6 bn which have been recognized
in other income, as against which it has recognized Rs287 mn of expenses in the quarter.

Electric Utilities
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 57

For FY2025, NHPC reported standalone PAT of Rs30.8 bn ((-)18% yoy), which was impacted by the (1)
charge for arrears payable to employees, pursuant to the orders from Punjab and Haryana high courts,
leading to Rs949 mn PBT impact, (2) charge to finance costs pertaining to disputed claims with
contractors, leading to Rs262 mn PBT impact and (3) a higher effective tax rate of 23%, compared
with 13% (owing to MAT credit) in FY2024. NHPC has projects aggregating 19 GW under various
stages of implementation, including 9.9 GW of projects under construction. Having commissioned
Parbati II (800 MW) in April 2025, NHPC is targeting Subansiri Lower (8X250 MW) to be fully
operational by FY2027—it expects to commission three units by June 2025 and the balance five units
by May 2026.

Tata Power. Tata Power reported consolidated 4QFY25 revenue, EBITDA and PAT of Rs173 bn (up
7% yoy, 15% qoq), Rs34.8 bn (up 27% yoy, 13% qoq) and Rs10.2 bn (up 20% yoy, down 1% qoq),
respectively. Earnings were aided by higher profit in the Odisha discoms and the solar module and
cell manufacturing facility (partly netted off in consolidation), as well as a lower effective tax rate of
20% (42% in 4QFY24). Tata Power closed FY2025 with consolidated revenue, EBITDA and PAT of
Rs645 bn (up 5% yoy), Rs129.5 bn (up 19% yoy) and Rs40.9 bn (up 20% yoy), respectively, again aided
by the Odisha discoms, the module and cell business, as well as a favorable tariff order in the Delhi
distribution business.

Standalone revenues for 4QFY25 came in at Rs57.6 bn (up 12% yoy), although the PAT of Rs4.1 bn
(down 52% yoy) was impacted by lower other income that stood at Rs2.1 bn (down 71% yoy), despite
negligible effective tax in the quarter. The thermal cluster saw a strong 131% yoy growth in PAT to
Rs6.3 bn, primarily on account of a profit of Rs1.7 bn in the Mundra coal and shipping cluster (Rs0.4
bn loss in 4QFY24) and better profit in Mumbai/hydro generation. This was followed by 62% yoy
growth in renewables segment profit at Rs4.7 bn and 51% yoy growth in T &D segment profit at Rs6.2
bn.

JSW Energy. JSW Energy reported 4QFY25 revenue of Rs31.9 bn (+16% yoy, +31% qoq), EBITDA of
Rs12 bn (+3% yoy, +32% qoq) and PAT of Rs4.1 bn (+16% yoy, +143% qoq), which was aided by Rs1.1
bn of treasury gains and provision writeback. EBITDA growth was largely aided by the KSK acquisition
(completed in March 2025); adjusted for it, 4QFY25 EBITDA saw a yoy decline owing to lower short-
term sales (impact of Rs1.1 bn), as well as Rs0.8 bn impact from lower long-term sales in the quarter.
Modest renewable PLFs impacted generation, although the same was offset by the KSK acquisition,
leading to total net generation of 7.9 BU (+24% yoy). For FY2025, the consolidated EBITDA of Rs52.2
bn (-3% yoy) was impacted by lower short-term tariffs in the year, while PAT of Rs19.5 bn (+14% yoy)
was aided by higher other income.

CESC. CESC reported 4QFY25 consolidated revenue of Rs40.2 bn (+1% yoy, +4% qoq), EBITDA of
Rs9.5 bn (-3% yoy, +5% qoq) and PAT of Rs3.7 bn (-7% yoy, +41% qoq). The profitability was aided by
the Kolkata and Noida distribution businesses, but offset by Haldia and Chandrapur generation assets
that saw a decline in profits and the Malegaon circle that saw a loss during the quarter. Consolidated
PAT of Rs3.7 bn in 4QFY25 comprised (1) standalone PAT of Rs2.2 bn (+6% yoy, +27% qoq) on
account of 11% yoy higher unit sales; (2) PAT of Rs360 mn (+16% yoy, -18% qoq) at Noida, aided by
6% yoy higher unit sales and lower T &D loss; (3) PAT of Rs700 mn (-9% yoy, +25% qoq) at Haldia, with
PLF of 96% (85% in 4QFY24); and (4) PAT of Rs690 mn (-27% yoy, +35% qoq) at Dhariwal, with healthy
PLF at 85% (91% in 4QFY24). For FY2025, CESC reported consolidated PAT of Rs13.7 bn, flat yoy, as
lower profits in distribution entities were offset by the modest growth (3.2% yoy) in the standalone
business and generation assets (Haldia and Dhariwal).

ACME Solar. ACME Solar reported better-than-expected revenue and EBITDA of Rs4.87 bn (+65% yoy,
+40% qoq) and Rs4.36 bn (+117% yoy, +42% qoq) on an operational capacity of 2,540 MW (1,320 MW,
as of March 2024). EBITDA margin increased to 89.5% (88% in 3QFY25). PLF improved to 27.6% in
4QFY25 from 25.3% in 4QFY24, with the FY2025 CUF at 25.6% (23.6% in FY2024), aided by the recently
commissioned capacity in Rajasthan that operated at 32% PLF. Accordingly, the 4QFY25 generation
rose 108% yoy to 1,514 MU, while the blended tariff declined to Rs3.2/kwh ((-)21% yoy, (-)3% qoq),
owing to lower tariff in the recently commissioned capacity. The net profit (before exceptional) stood
at Rs1.4 bn, compared with a Rs1.6 bn loss in 4QFY24. For FY2025 revenue, EBITDA and PAT stood
at Rs14 bn (+7% yoy), Rs12.3 bn (+13% yoy) and Rs2.7 bn (Rs0.5 bn loss in FY2024)—the lower growth,
despite near-doubling of capacity at year-end, is owing to only one quarter’s contribution from the new
capacity and asset sales (369 MW) in 4QFY24.

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Most players missed their capacity addition targets in FY2025

Capacity addition plans and achievement for coverage companies, March fiscal year-ends, 2025-26E (Rs mn)
FY2025 FY2026
Coal/ Hydro Renewable Coal/ Hydro Renewable
Comments Comments
(MW) Target Actual Target Actual Target Target

3.3 GW of RE capacity addition aided

by 2.1 GW acquisition of Ayana; 3.6 GW coal + 1 GW hydro + 7.2 GW
NTPC 2,700 660 3,000 3,312 4,600 7,200
organic RE capacity addition at 1.2 GW RE (primarily in NTPC Green)
only

Commissioned 800 MW at Parbati II in

Target was to add 800 MW at Parbati
NHPC 1,550 - 535 107 1,550 783 1QFY26; planning to commission 3
II and 250X3 MW at Subansiri Lower
units at Subansiri Lower in 2026E

Targeting 2.5-2.7 GW of RE
Tata Target was to add 1.5 GW RE capacity commissioning in 2026E out of 5 GW
- - 1,500 1,026 - 1,500
Power (own utility scale) in 2025 RE projects under implementation,
incl. third-party EPC

240 MW hydro project (Kutehr) +

Acquired 1,800 MW coal capacity at ~750 MW organic RE; O2 acquisition
JSW
350 2,150 1,970 1,435 KSK and 125 MW RE capacity (Hetero 240 3,000 (1.3 GW operational) completed in
Energy
portfolio) April 2025, 0.9 GW u/c at O2 to be
completed in 2026

ACME 1,200 MW solar capacity added in

- - 1,200 1,200 - 450 Commissioned 191 MW in 1QFY26
Solar December 2024

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Weak earnings growth across the coverage universe

Quarterly snapshot of electric utilities under coverage, March fiscal year-ends, 2024-25E (Rs mn)
(% chg.)
4QFY25 4QFY24 3QFY25 yoy qoq 2025 2024 (% chg.) Comments for 2025 earnings
CESC
Revenue 40,170 39,590 38,610 1.5 4 182,490 170,500 7.0 Modest growth in standalone and generation
EBITDA 9,520 9,820 9,100 (3.1) 5 39,370 38,830 1.4 assets, offset by losses in Malegaon
PAT 3,730 4,000 2,650 (6.8) 41 13,690 13,760 (0.5) distribution entity
JSW Energy
Revenue 31,894 27,559 24,389 16 31 117,454 114,859 2.3
Profit was aided by higher other income
EBITDA 12,045 11,685 9,137 3.1 32 52,208 53,818 (3.0)
(treasury gains and LPS payment)
PAT 4,081 3,513 1,678 16 143 19,509 17,227 13.2
Tata Power
Revenue 173,278 162,559 151,175 6.6 14.6 645,021 615,423 4.8 Profit aided by Odisha discoms, cell & module
EBITDA 34,775 27,411 30,790 27 12.9 129,537 108,773 19.1 business, favorable tariff order at Delhi (Rs3
PAT 10,249 8,565 10,307 19.7 (0.6) 40,931 34,229 19.6 bn) and regulatory benefit at Mundra (Rs3
NHPC
Revenue 23,470 18,881 22,868 24 3 103,799 96,322 7.8
Profit impacted by one-off finance and
EBITDA 10,902 8,854 10,215 23 7 55,199 48,683 13.4
employee costs
PAT 8,537 5,498 2,312 55 269 30,102 36,244 (16.9)
NTPC
Revenue 498,337 476,221 450,528 4.6 10.6 1,881,381 1,785,009 5.4
Profit aided by higher regulatory income of
EBITDA 147,541 141,952 136,671 3.9 8.0 541,276 510,927 5.9
Rs37 bn (+270% yoy)
PAT 76,112 64,901 50,625 17.3 50.3 239,532 204,766 17.0
Power Grid
Revenue 123,257 118,020 112,755 4.4 9.3 460,686 452,717 1.8
Profit impacted by a miss on capitalization
EBITDA 102,740 99,229 95,805 3.5 7.2 393,417 393,315 0.0
(Rs90 bn against Rs180 bn guidance)
PAT 41,429 41,663 38,616 (0.6) 7.3 155,214 155,732 (0.3)
ACME Solar
Revenue 4,869 2,952 3,490 65 40 14,051 13,193 6.5
Earnings impacted by sale of assets in
EBITDA 4,357 2,007 3,072 117 42 12,354 10,892 13.4
FY2024
PAT 1,362 (1,639) 1,190 NA 14 2,718 (509) NA

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Electric Utilities
India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 -
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-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0

0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
May-06 May-06 May-04 May-06
May-07 May-07 May-05
May-07
May-08 May-06
May-08 May-08
May-09 May-07
May-09 May-08 May-09
May-10

Electric Utilities
May-10 May-09 May-10
May-11 May-11 May-10 May-11
May-12 May-12 May-11 May-12
May-13 May-13 May-12 May-13
May-14 May-14 May-13 May-14
May-15 May-15 May-14 May-15
May-16 May-15 May-16
May-16
May-16 May-17
May-17 May-17
May-17
May-18 May-18 May-18
May-18
NTPC 1yr fwd P/E (X)

May-19

NTPC 1yr fwd P/B (X)

May-19 May-19 May-19

Tata Power 1yr fwd P/E (X)

May-20 May-20

Tata Power 1yr fwd P/B (X)

May-20 May-20
May-21 May-21 May-21
May-21
May-22 May-22 May-22
May-22
May-23 May-23 May-23
May-23
May-24 May-24 May-24
May-24 May-25 May-25
May-25 May-25

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0

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-

0.5
1.0
1.5
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2.5
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5.0
5.0
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20.0
25.0

10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0

Stocks have seen some rebound in recent weeks

Stocks have seen some rebound in recent weeks

May-08
May-11 May-11 May-08
May-09
May-12 May-12 May-09
May-10
May-10
May-13 May-11 May-13
May-11
May-14 May-12 May-14 May-12
May-13 May-15
May-15 May-13
May-14
May-16 May-16 May-14
May-15
May-17 May-15
May-17 May-16
May-16
May-18 May-17 May-18
May-17
May-19 May-18 May-19 May-18
May-19 May-20 May-19
May-20
May-20 May-20

Power Grid 1yr fwd P/B (X)

May-21
Power Grid 1yr fwd P/E (X)

JSW Energy 1yr fwd P/E (X)

May-21 May-21

JSW Energy 1yr fwd P/B (X)

May-21
May-22
May-22 May-22 May-22
May-23 May-23
May-23 May-23
May-24 May-24 May-24
May-24
May-25 May-25 May-25
May-25

-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
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10.0
15.0
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5.0
10.0
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20.0
25.0

0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
May-10 May-10
May-10 May-08
May-11
Valuation comparison on one year forward P/E, March fiscal year-ends, 2010-26 (X)

May-11
Valuation comparison on one year forward P/B, March fiscal year-ends, 2010-26 (X)
May-11 May-09
May-12 May-10 May-12
May-12
May-13 May-11 May-13
May-13 May-12
May-14 May-14
May-14 May-13
May-15 May-15
May-15 May-14
May-16 May-16
May-16 May-15
May-17 May-16 May-17
May-17
May-18 May-17 May-18
May-18 May-19
May-19 May-18
May-19 May-19 May-20
NHPC 1yr fwd P/E (X)

May-20
CESC 1yr fwd P/E (X)

NHPC 1yr fwd P/B (X)

May-20 May-20 May-21

CESC 1yr fwd P/B (X)

May-21
May-21 May-21 May-22
May-22 May-22
May-22 May-23
May-23 May-23
May-23 May-24
May-24 May-24
May-24 May-25 May-25
May-25
May-25

India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
59
 60

Most utilities are now trading closer to our FVs

Valuation summary of electric utilities
Mkt Cap.
(US$ Price Target EV/EBITDA (X) P/E (X)
Rating bn) 2-Jun (Rs) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
CESC SELL 2.6 165 150 8.8 9.2 8.7 8.5 8.6 15.8 15.9 13.4 12.4 12.2
Coal India REDUCE 28.8 400 375 6.7 7.2 5.5 5.0 4.6 6.6 7.0 6.7 6.8 5.8
JSW Energy SELL 10.2 498 420 19.9 23.5 11.8 9.9 8.0 47.4 44.5 26.3 18.0 15.0
NHPC SELL 10.3 87 74 23.9 22.5 13.1 10.8 10.3 24.2 29.2 17.3 13.4 11.6
NTPC SELL 37.8 333 320 10.8 10.3 9.5 9.4 8.8 15.8 14.0 13.6 12.6 11.7
Power Grid SELL 31.9 293 275 9.9 10.0 8.5 7.8 7.2 17.5 17.4 14.6 13.5 13.0
Tata Power SELL 14.9 397 335 15.4 13.4 11.6 10.6 10.2 37.0 31.0 21.0 18.3 17.3
ACME Solar BUY 1.4 191 330 21.4 17.7 16.7 13.3 8.0 (282.8) 52.9 23.6 32.6 9.6
Div Yield
P/BV (X) (%) ROCE (%) ROE (%)
2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2025E 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
CESC 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.6 2.7 8.9 8.2 7.7 7.7 7.7 12.6 13.4 14.7 14.4 12.8
Coal India 3.0 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.5 6.6 27.0 16.3 19.8 19.1 18.0 53.4 38.8 33.6 28.2 27.7
JSW Energy 3.9 3.2 2.9 2.5 2.2 0.4 6.2 4.9 6.9 7.7 8.3 8.7 8.1 11.4 14.8 15.5
NHPC 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 2.2 4.3 4.1 7.0 8.1 8.0 9.6 7.7 12.3 14.8 15.7
NTPC 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 2.4 6.8 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.8 13.2 13.1 12.1 12.0 11.8
Power Grid 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.2 3.1 10.5 9.8 10.5 10.6 10.9 18.3 17.4 19.1 18.7 17.9
Tata Power 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.6 2.3 - 6.1 7.2 8.0 7.3 6.6 11.2 12.0 15.5 15.3 14.1
ACME Solar 5.6 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.0 - 7.0 8.0 8.0 7.7 12.0 (2.2) 7.7 12.7 8.3 23.7

Source: CEA, Kotak Institutional Equities

Electric Utilities
India Research

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 61

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks

Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 2-Jun-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Automobiles & Components
Amara Raja Energy & Mobility SELL 1,017 925 (9) 186 2.2 183 53 58 66 19 18 16 2.5 2.2 2.0 11 10 9 14 14 14 1.0 0.6 0.6 9 4
Apollo Tyres SELL 472 405 (14) 299 3.5 638 20 26 31 24 18 15 2.0 1.9 1.7 9 8 7 9 11 12 1.1 1.5 1.5 9 4
Ashok Leyland ADD 236 240 2 694 8.1 2,936 11 11 12 22 21 20 5.9 5.0 4.5 13 13 12 31 25 24 2.6 1.9 2.6 20 8
Bajaj Auto SELL 8,514 7,250 (15) 2,377 28 279 300 336 365 28 25 23 7.4 7.0 6.6 21 19 18 29 28 29 2.5 3.2 3.4 46 24
Balkrishna Industries SELL 2,450 2,100 (14) 474 5.5 193 86 98 104 29 25 24 4.6 4.0 3.5 18 16 15 17 17 16 0.7 0.7 0.8 12 6
Bharat Forge SELL 1,257 900 (28) 601 7.0 478 21 26 33 59 48 38 6.5 6.0 5.4 24 24 20 12 13 15 0.6 0.7 0.8 23 11
CEAT SELL 3,741 2,825 (24) 151 1.8 40 122 167 185 31 22 20 3.5 3.1 2.8 12 10 9 12 15 14 0.8 1.1 1.2 9 3
CIE Automotive SELL 448 380 (15) 170 2.0 378 22 22 25 21 20 18 2.6 2.4 2.2 12 12 10 13 12 13 1.6 1.5 1.7 1 1
Eicher Motors SELL 5,361 4,300 (20) 1,470 17.2 272 174 176 196 31 30 27 7.9 7.0 6.3 29 26 24 28 24 24 1.3 1.4 1.6 31 17
Endurance Technologies REDUCE 2,422 2,050 (15) 341 4.0 141 59 67 77 41 36 31 6.0 5.3 4.7 21 18 16 15 15 15 0.4 0.6 0.7 3 2
Escorts Kubota SELL 3,384 2,850 (16) 379 4.4 112 99 105 120 34 32 28 3.6 3.4 3.1 31 28 24 11 11 11 0.8 0.9 1.2 7 2
Exide Industries SELL 387 290 (25) 329 3.9 850 13 14 16 31 28 24 2.3 2.1 2.0 17 16 14 8 8 9 0.5 0.6 0.6 12 5
Hero Motocorp SELL 4,232 3,500 (17) 847 9.9 200 231 244 266 18 17 16 4.3 4.0 3.7 12 11 10 24 24 24 3.9 4.0 4.4 34 16
Hyundai Motor BUY 1,853 2,050 11 1,505 17.6 813 69 72 88 27 26 21 9.2 7.6 6.3 16 15 12 35 29 30 1.1 1.5 1.9 28 18
Mahindra & Mahindra BUY 3,026 3,500 16 3,763 44.1 1,159 102 118 128 30 26 24 5.7 4.8 4.1 21 18 16 21 20 19 0.8 0.6 0.6 107 60
Maruti Suzuki ADD 12,273 12,275 0 3,859 45.2 314 470 500 555 26 25 22 4.1 3.7 3.4 17 16 14 17 16 16 1.1 1.6 1.8 57 32
MRF SELL 140,750 115,000 (18) 597 7.0 4 4,409 5,539 6,272 32 25 22 3.2 2.9 2.6 14 12 10 11 12 12 0.2 0.2 0.2 13 5
Ola Electric SELL 54 30 (44) 237 2.8 4,411 (5) (3) (3) NM NM NM 4.6 6.4 9.3 NM NM NM NM NM NM 0.0 0.0 0.0 27 7
Samvardhana Motherson SELL 151 130 (14) 1,062 12.4 7,036 5 6 6 28 27 23 3.1 2.8 2.5 11 10 9 13 11 11 0.2 0.3 0.3 31 14
Schaeffler India REDUCE 4,138 3,250 (21) 647 7.6 156 60 70 77 69 59 54 12.1 10.9 9.9 44 38 34 19 19 19 0.1 0.0 0.0 5 2
SKF ADD 4,685 4,800 2 232 2.7 49 114 138 155 41 34 30 8.9 7.5 6.3 31 25 22 22 22 21 0.3 0.6 0.7 3 2
Sona BLW Precision REDUCE 541 450 (17) 337 3.9 618 10 12 14 56 46 39 5.9 5.4 4.8 32 29 25 15 12 13 0.3 0.4 0.5 14 7
Tata Motors SELL 712 600 (16) 2,620 30.7 3,677 61 57 74 12 12 10 2.3 1.9 1.6 5 5 4 22 17 18 0.8 0.6 0.7 136 52
Timken ADD 3,174 3,300 4 239 2.8 75 59 67 81 53 48 39 8.4 7.3 6.3 39 33 27 17 16 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 7 4
TVS Motor REDUCE 2,763 2,400 (13) 1,313 15.4 475 57 68 80 48 41 34 13.2 10.5 8.4 30 25 21 31 29 27 0.3 0.4 0.5 26 14
Uno Minda SELL 1,019 900 (12) 585 6.8 572 16 19 21 62 54 49 10.2 8.6 7.4 32 28 25 16 16 15 0.2 0.3 0.3 8 4
Varroc Engineering SELL 552 480 (13) 84 1.0 153 5 24 31 121 23 18 5.3 3.7 3.1 12 10 8 4 16 17 — — — 2 1
Automobiles & Components Cautious 25,396 297.4 26.8 25.0 21.5 4.7 4.1 3.6 14.3 13.6 11.6 17.4 16.5 16.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 678 321
Banks
AU Small Finance Bank ADD 719 650 (10) 535 6.3 745 28 37 48 25 20 15 3.2 2.8 2.4 — — — 13 15 17 — — — 28 14
Axis Bank BUY 1,194 1,500 26 3,702 43.4 3,097 85 89 101 14 13 12 1.4 1.8 1.6 — — — 16 14 15 0.1 1.1 1.3 96 61
Bandhan Bank BUY 173 225 30 278 3.3 1,611 17 22 26 10 8 7 1.1 1.0 0.9 — — — 12 14 14 1.6 2.0 2.4 17 7
Bank of Baroda ADD 255 255 0 1,318 15.4 5,178 38 35 33 7 7 8 1.0 0.9 0.9 — — — 16 12 11 3.0 2.8 2.6 34 16
Canara Bank ADD 117 105 (10) 1,060 12.4 9,071 19 17 19 6 7 6 1.2 1.1 1.0 — — — 18 14 14 3.2 2.9 3.2 35 16
City Union Bank ADD 199 185 (7) 147 1.7 741 15 15 17 13 13 11 1.6 1.5 1.3 — — — 13 11 12 1.0 1.0 1.2 5 3
DCB Bank BUY 147 160 9 46 0.5 314 20 22 31 8 7 5 0.9 0.8 0.7 — — — 11 11 14 0.9 1.3 2.3 3 2
Equitas Small Finance Bank BUY 67 85 27 76 0.9 1,140 1 4 7 52 17 9 1.3 1.2 1.1 — — — 2 7 12 — — — 4 2
Federal Bank BUY 206 225 9 506 5.9 2,455 17 16 20 12 13 10 1.6 1.4 1.3 — — — 13 11 12 0.6 1.2 1.4 20 11
HDFC Bank ADD 1,932 2,100 9 14,796 173.3 7,652 88 98 112 22 20 17 3.0 2.7 2.4 — — — 14 14 15 1.1 1.3 1.4 270 183
ICICI Bank BUY 1,451 1,600 10 10,344 121.1 7,123 67 70 77 22 21 19 3.6 3.2 2.8 — — — 18 16 15 0.8 1.0 1.1 199 133
IndusInd Bank REDUCE 813 800 (2) 633 7.4 779 34 49 92 24 17 9 1.0 1.0 0.9 — — — 4 6 10 0.6 0.9 1.6 151 60
Karur Vysya Bank BUY 240 260 8 192 2.2 805 24 23 26 10 10 9 1.6 1.5 1.3 — — — 18 15 15 2.6 2.5 2.8 6 3
Punjab National Bank ADD 108 110 1 1,247 14.6 11,493 14 15 15 7 7 7 1.1 1.0 0.9 — — — 14 13 11 2.7 2.8 2.7 30 12
State Bank of India BUY 814 975 20 7,262 85.0 8,925 79 68 84 10 12 10 1.8 1.6 1.4 — — — 17 13 14 2.0 1.9 2.1 114 58
Ujjivan Small Finance Bank BUY 44 55 24 86 1.0 1,935 4 3 5 12 17 8 1.4 1.4 1.2 — — — 12 8 15 0.0 1.3 2.7 8 4
Union Bank BUY 153 160 4 1,169 13.7 7,634 24 22 22 7 7 7 1.1 1.0 0.9 — — — 17 14 13 3.1 2.8 2.9 22 9
Utkarsh Small Finance Bank BUY 24 32 32 27 0.3 1,102 0 (2) 4 129 NM 6 1.0 1.0 0.9 — — — 1 NM 15 — — — 1 1
YES Bank SELL 23 17 (27) 730 8.5 31,354 1 1 1 30 22 16 1.5 1.5 1.3 — — — 5 7 9 — — — 31 13
Banks Attractive 44,154 517.1 14.6 14.6 12.8 2.1 1.9 1.7 14.2 12.8 13.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1,074 606

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 62

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks

Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 2-Jun-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Capital goods
ABB ADD 5,975 5,700 (5) 1,266 14.8 212 88 95 105 68 63 57 17.9 15.4 13.5 53 49 45 29 26 25 0.5 0.6 0.7 27 13
Bharat Electronics SELL 388 300 (23) 2,833 33.2 7,310 7 8 10 53 46 38 14.2 12.0 10.1 40 34 28 29 28 28 0.6 0.9 1.0 112 50
BHEL SELL 261 115 (56) 910 10.7 3,482 1 4 11 177 65 25 3.6 3.4 2.9 NM 38 17 2 5 13 (0.0) (0.1) (0.5) 40 13
Carborundum Universal REDUCE 979 960 (2) 186 2.2 190 15 23 31 64 43 32 5.3 4.8 4.3 26 25 19 9 12 14 0.3 0.5 0.6 3 1
CG Power & Industrial SELL 679 540 (20) 1,038 12.2 1,527 6 8 10 106 80 65 27.0 21.8 17.6 79 58 47 25 27 27 (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) 25 12
Cochin Shipyard SELL 1,923 850 (56) 506 5.9 263 31 30 36 61 64 54 9.1 8.3 7.5 55 49 43 16 14 15 0.5 0.6 0.6 92 26
Cummins India BUY 3,319 3,900 17 920 10.8 277 72 82 95 46 41 35 13.1 11.6 10.2 43 37 32 30 30 31 1.2 1.4 1.6 22 11
G R Infraprojects SELL 1,307 1,150 (12) 126 1.5 97 83 91 221 16 14 6 1.6 1.4 0.6 14 12 4 10 11 22 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 1
IRB Infrastructure ADD 52 60 16 312 3.7 6,039 1 2 3 46 21 18 1.6 1.6 1.5 13 11 10 4 7 9 2.6 4.0 4.9 10 4
Kalpataru Projects BUY 1,151 1,220 6 196 2.3 160 34 61 80 34 19 14 2.8 2.5 2.1 12 9 8 9 14 16 0.3 0.4 0.6 6 3
KEC International REDUCE 863 890 3 230 2.7 266 21 39 53 40 22 16 4.3 3.7 3.1 17 12 10 12 18 21 0.3 0.5 0.7 21 7
L&T ADD 3,680 3,650 (1) 5,060 59.3 1,375 106 125 161 35 29 23 6.3 5.6 4.8 23 19 16 19 20 23 0.8 0.9 1.2 92 55
Praj Industries BUY 488 700 43 90 1.1 184 10 13 19 50 37 25 6.5 5.5 4.5 — — — 16 16 20 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 2
Siemens REDUCE 3,292 2,900 (12) 1,172 13.7 356 49 57 67 67 58 49 8.9 8.0 7.1 54 44 37 15 15 15 0.5 0.5 0.5 33 14
Thermax ADD 3,449 3,500 1 411 4.8 113 56 68 83 62 50 42 7.9 7.0 6.2 46 38 31 13 15 16 0.0 0.4 0.4 5 3
Capital goods Cautious 15,257 178.7 47.8 39.1 29.7 7.2 6.5 5.4 30.6 24.8 19.9 15.1 16.5 18.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 496 215
Capital Markets
360 One ADD 1,020 1,150 13 402 4.7 406 27 30 34 38 34 30 5.7 4.9 3.7 — — — 20 16 15 0.6 0.7 0.8 14 8
ABSL AMC ADD 750 750 0 216 2.5 288 32 34 36 23 22 21 5.8 5.2 4.8 — — — NM NM NM 2.6 2.7 2.9 3 2
Angel One BUY 3,149 2,800 (11) 285 3.3 90 130 104 131 24 30 24 5.0 4.5 4.0 — — — 27 16 18 1.2 1.2 1.5 44 9
CAMS ADD 4,139 4,000 (3) 205 2.4 50 95 101 116 44 41 36 18.3 16.4 14.7 — — — 46 42 44 1.8 1.9 2.1 23 9
CRISIL REDUCE 5,188 4,300 (17) 379 4.4 73 94 109 128 55 47 41 14.8 13.3 12.0 — — — 29 30 31 1.1 1.4 1.6 4 2
HDFC AMC ADD 4,821 4,500 (7) 1,031 12.1 214 115 134 147 42 36 33 12.7 11.8 11.0 — — — 32 34 35 1.9 2.2 2.4 26 16
ICRA REDUCE 6,749 6,500 (4) 65 0.8 10 177 208 237 38 33 29 5.8 5.4 41.6 — — — 16 17 34 0.1 0.2 0.2 1 0
Kfin Technologies SELL 1,124 1,050 (7) 193 2.3 172 19 22 28 58 50 41 13.7 12.0 10.5 — — — 21 20 21 0.7 0.8 1.0 28 11
Nippon AMC ADD 741 700 (6) 470 5.5 635 20 22 25 37 33 30 11.2 10.8 10.4 — — — 31 33 35 2.4 2.7 3.0 8 4
UTI AMC BUY 1,194 1,300 9 153 1.8 128 57 54 58 21 22 21 3.3 3.2 3.1 — — — 16 15 15 4.0 3.6 3.9 3 1
Capital Markets Cautious 3,400 39.8 36.3 33.8 29.7 8.6 7.8 7.0 24 23 24 1.6 1.7 1.9 153 361
Commercial & Professional Services
SIS ADD 356 360 1 51 0.6 147 1 20 23 443 18 15 2.2 1.9 1.7 9 8 8 0 12 12 — — — 1 0
TeamLease Services REDUCE 1,960 2,000 2 33 0.4 17 66 74 89 30 27 22 3.6 3.2 2.8 23 19 16 12.9 12.8 13.5 — — — 1 1
Commercial & Professional Services Cautious 84 1.0 69.0 20.2 17.4 2.5 2.3 2.0 11.4 10.6 9.5 3.7 11.2 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 1
Commodity Chemicals
Asian Paints REDUCE 2,267 2,250 (1) 2,174 25.5 959 42 44 51 54 51 45 11.2 10.3 9.6 36 33 31 21 21 22 1.1 1.2 1.4 35 19
Berger Paints SELL 557 505 (9) 649 7.6 1166 10 11 12 55 52 47 10.5 9.4 8.5 35 33 30 20 19 19 0.7 0.8 1.0 5 2
Indigo Paints REDUCE 1,071 1,000 (7) 51 0.6 48 30 28 31 36 39 34 4.9 4.5 4.1 21 21 19 15 12 12 0.3 0.4 0.6 1 1
Kansai Nerolac REDUCE 252 265 5 204 2.4 808 8 9 10 30 27 25 3.2 3.0 2.8 19 17 15 11 12 12 1.5 1.9 2.0 1 0
Tata Chemicals SELL 897 710 (21) 228 2.7 255 13 15 19 70 59 47 1.1 1.1 1.0 11 9 8 1 2 2 1.2 1.2 1.2 8 4
Commodity Chemicals Cautious 3,307 38.7 52.0 49.0 42.8 6.1 5.8 5.4 29.2 27.0 24.7 11.7 11.7 12.7 1.0 1.1 1.4 50 26
Construction Materials
ACC REDUCE 1,884 2,000 6 354 4.1 188 54 98 109 35 19 17 1.9 1.8 1.6 13 9 8 6 10 10 0.4 0.5 0.6 9 4
Ambuja Cements SELL 556 360 (35) 1,368 16.0 2,463 7 13 18 78 42 32 2.6 2.4 2.3 25 18 14 4 6 7 0.4 0.5 0.6 18 10
Dalmia Bharat SELL 2,076 1,650 (21) 389 4.6 187 42 60 72 49 35 29 2.2 2.1 2.0 16 13 12 5 6 7 0.4 0.5 0.6 9 5
Grasim Industries REDUCE 2,524 2,750 9 1,718 20.1 681 58 91 121 44 28 21 1.8 1.7 1.6 12 9 8 4 6 8 0.4 0.4 0.4 20 11
J K Cement SELL 5,478 3,160 (42) 423 5.0 77 103 135 156 53 41 35 7.0 6.0 5.2 23 18 16 14 16 16 0.3 0.3 0.3 7 4
Nuvoco Vistas Corp. REDUCE 354 350 (1) 127 1.5 357 1 5 8 579 76 46 1.4 1.4 1.3 12 11 9 0 2 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 1
Shree Cement SELL 29,410 19,550 (34) 1,061 12.4 36 332 420 448 89 70 66 5.0 4.8 4.6 26 21 18 6 7 7 0.4 0.5 0.5 14 7
The Ramco Cements SELL 987 590 (40) 233 2.7 236 3 19 26 318 53 38 3.1 2.9 2.7 23 17 15 1 6 7 0.2 0.3 0.4 9 4
UltraTech Cement SELL 11,195 7,350 (34) 3,299 38.6 295 209 314 367 54 36 31 4.7 4.3 3.9 28 19 17 9 13 13 0.7 0.7 0.9 46 28
Construction Materials Cautious 8,972 105.1 57.0 36.1 29.4 3.0 2.8 2.6 18.0 13.9 12.2 5.2 7.7 8.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 133 74

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 63

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks

Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 2-Jun-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Consumer Durables & Apparel
Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail REDUCE 88 93 6 107 1.3 1,220 (5) (5) (4) NM NM NM 1.6 1.7 1.9 14 13 10 NM NM NM — — — 11 5
Campus Activewear ADD 296 315 6 90 1.1 305 4 5 6 75 58 47 11.9 10.2 8.7 37 30 26 17 19 20 — — 0.5 2 1
Cello World BUY 624 735 18 138 1.6 226 15 17 19 41 37 32 6.4 5.8 5.1 26 24 21 20 17 17 0.2 0.8 1.0 2 1
Crompton Greaves Consumer BUY 354 390 10 228 2.7 643 9 10 13 41 34 28 6.7 6.0 5.2 26 22 18 17 19 20 0.8 1.0 1.2 12 7
Eureka Forbes BUY 628 800 27 121 1.4 209 8 10 14 80 60 44 3.0 2.8 2.7 45 35 26 4 5 6 — — — 2 1
Havells India SELL 1,515 1,400 (8) 950 11.1 628 23 27 33 65 56 46 11.4 10.2 9.0 43 36 29 19 19 21 0.7 0.7 0.9 21 12
Page Industries SELL 45,840 39,000 (15) 511 6.0 11 654 760 900 70 60 51 36.3 28.6 23.1 48 42 36 49 53 50 0.8 0.9 1.2 12 6
Polycab SELL 5,927 5,100 (14) 892 10.4 151 134 160 192 44 37 31 9.1 7.7 6.5 30 25 21 22 23 23 0.6 0.7 0.9 45 18
Vedant Fashions REDUCE 794 730 (8) 193 2.3 243 16 17 19 50 46 41 10.8 9.5 8.2 29 26 23 23 22 22 — — — 3 1
Voltas SELL 1,246 1,100 (12) 412 4.8 331 25 29 37 49 43 34 6.3 5.7 5.1 37 33 28 14 14 16 0.6 0.7 0.9 34 16
Whirlpool ADD 1,240 1,335 8 157 1.8 127 28 35 41 45 35 30 4.0 3.7 3.4 24 19 16 9 11 12 0.4 0.7 0.8 8 4
Consumer Durables & Apparel Cautious 3,800 44.5 59.8 49.9 40.4 7.7 7.0 6.3 33.5 28.7 23.7 12.9 14.0 15.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 150 72
Consumer Staples
Britannia Industries ADD 5,605 5,700 2 1,350 15.8 241 91 103 116 61 54 48 31.0 26.8 23.9 42 38 34 53 53 52 1.3 1.6 1.8 25 15
Colgate-Palmolive (India) REDUCE 2,474 2,535 2 673 7.9 272 53 54 59 47 46 42 40.4 39.1 37.2 34 32 29 81 86 91 2.1 2.1 2.3 16 9
Dabur India REDUCE 484 490 1 859 10.1 1,772 10 11 12 49 44 40 7.9 7.6 7.2 36 33 29 17 18 18 1.1 1.5 1.7 15 9
Godrej Consumer Products ADD 1,266 1,285 1 1,295 15.2 1,023 19 22 26 68 56 49 10.8 9.8 8.8 43 38 33 16 18 19 0.8 0.8 0.9 18 11
Hindustan Unilever ADD 2,372 2,300 (3) 5,572 65.3 2,350 43 44 49 55 53 48 11.3 11.6 11.3 38 37 33 20 21 24 2.2 1.8 2.0 56 36
Honasa Consumer ADD 315 275 (13) 102 1.2 325 2 4 6 141 83 55 8.7 7.6 6.5 140 64 40 6 10 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 2
ITC ADD 419 480 14 5,247 61.5 12,514 16 17 18 27 25 23 7.7 7.4 7.1 21 19 17 27 28 30 3.4 3.4 3.7 116 75
Jyothy Labs SELL 344 350 2 126 1.5 367 10 10 11 34 34 31 6.2 5.7 5.4 24 24 22 19 17 18 1.0 1.7 2.0 4 2
Marico REDUCE 704 675 (4) 913 10.7 1,290 13 14 15 56 51 46 22.9 21.3 19.7 42 38 33 42 43 44 1.5 1.6 1.8 20 13
Nestle India REDUCE 2,406 2,250 (6) 2,320 27.2 964 31 35 39 77 69 61 56.4 50.8 46.4 50 45 40 81 77 80 1.1 1.2 1.5 23 13
Sula Vineyards ADD 296 325 10 25 0.3 84 8 9 10 35 33 30 4.2 3.9 3.6 19 17 15 12 12 12 0.7 0.9 1.0 2 1
Tata Consumer Products ADD 1,120 1,185 6 1,109 13.0 989 13 17 22 86 65 52 5.5 5.3 5.1 44 37 31 7 8 10 0.7 0.9 1.0 23 14
United Breweries REDUCE 2,010 1,925 (4) 531 6.2 264 18 28 35 111 73 57 12.2 11.0 10.1 63 44 35 11 16 18 0.5 0.9 1.1 4 2
United Spirits ADD 1,549 1,575 2 1,127 13.2 727 19 22 26 80 71 60 13.5 12.1 10.8 54 48 41 18 18 19 0.5 0.6 0.7 13 7
Varun Beverages ADD 482 570 18 1,629 19.1 3,382 8 10 11 63 50 44 9.8 8.4 7.2 35 30 27 22 18 17 0.1 0.2 0.3 56 31
Consumer Staples Attractive 22,879 267.9 47.6 43.6 39.1 11.0 10.5 9.9 33.7 30.8 27.5 23 24 25 1.8 1.8 2.0 395 238
Diversified Financials
Aadhar Housing Finance BUY 442 560 27 191 2.2 436 21 25 31 21 18 14 3.0 2.6 2.2 — — — 17 16 16 — — — 4 2
Aavas Financiers REDUCE 1,802 2,050 14 143 1.7 79 73 88 106 25 20 17 3.3 2.8 2.4 — — — 14 15 15 — — — 8 4
Aptus Value Housing Finance BUY 337 400 19 168 2.0 500 15 17 21 22 20 16 3.9 3.4 3.0 — — — 19 19 20 1.3 1.5 1.8 2 1
Bajaj Finance ADD 9,119 9,500 4 5,667 66.4 621 266 333 419 34 27 22 6.0 5.1 4.3 — — — 19 20 21 0.6 0.8 1.0 127 67
Bajaj Finserv ADD 2,029 2,175 7 3,242 38.0 1,593 67 84 104 30 24 20 6.1 5.8 4.9 — — — 23 24 27 0.1 0.1 0.1 49 26
Bajaj Housing Finance REDUCE 124 100 (19) 1,032 12.1 8,328 3 3 4 48 40 33 5.2 4.6 4.0 — — — 13 12 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 20 9
Cholamandalam ADD 1,581 1,575 (0) 1,330 15.6 859 51 61 78 31 26 20 5.6 4.5 3.7 — — — 20 19 20 0.0 0.3 0.4 34 19
Five Star Business Finance BUY 699 850 22 206 2.4 291 37 42 51 19 17 14 3.2 2.7 2.3 — — — 19 18 18 — — — 7 3
Home First Finance BUY 1,263 1,500 19 130 1.5 103 42 51 65 30 25 19 4.5 3.1 2.7 — — — 16 16 15 — 0.4 0.5 8 4
India Shelter ADD 867 950 10 94 1.1 111 34 41 49 26 21 18 3.6 3.1 2.6 — — — 15 16 16 — — — 3 1
L&T Finance REDUCE 175 160 (9) 437 5.1 2,480 11 12 15 16 15 12 1.7 1.6 1.4 — — — 11 11 13 1.8 2.0 2.5 11 4
LIC Housing Finance BUY 602 725 20 331 3.9 550 99 97 96 6 6 6 0.9 0.8 0.7 — — — 16 14 12 1.7 1.6 1.6 13 6
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial ADD 260 300 15 321 3.8 1,235 19 20 24 14 13 11 1.6 1.5 1.4 — — — 12 12 13 3.3 3.5 4.1 8 4
Muthoot Finance REDUCE 2,222 2,275 2 892 10.4 401 130 161 178 17 14 13 3.1 2.7 2.3 — — — 20 21 20 1.2 1.8 2.0 28 14
SBFC REDUCE 114 100 (13) 125 1.5 1,107 3 4 5 37 30 25 4.3 3.8 3.3 — — — 12 12 13 — — — 4 2
SBI Cards and Payment Services ADD 924 950 3 879 10.3 951 20 24 30 46 38 31 6.4 5.6 4.8 — — — 15 16 17 0.3 0.4 0.5 13 7
Shriram Finance BUY 643 750 17 1,208 14.2 1,880 52 53 63 12 12 10 2.2 1.9 1.7 — — — 15 16 17 1.5 1.2 1.5 57 31
Diversified Financials Attractive 16,395 192.0 25.0 21.3 17.7 4.1 3.6 3.1 16.3 16.7 17.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 397 206

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 64

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks

Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 2-Jun-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Electric Utilities
Acme Solar Holdings BUY 258 330 28 156 1.8 605 4 10 7 57 26 35 3.5 3.0 2.8 - - - 8 13 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 2
CESC SELL 165 150 (9) 218 2.6 1,326 10 12 13 16 13 12 2.2 1.8 1.8 9 9 9 13 15 14 2.7 2.8 2.9 8 3
JSW Energy SELL 498 420 (16) 870 10.2 1,745 11 19 28 45 26 18 3.2 2.9 2.5 24 12 10 8 11 15 0.4 0.4 0.4 26 11
NHPC SELL 87 74 (15) 877 10.3 10,045 3 5 7 29 17 13 2.2 2.1 1.9 23 13 11 8 12 15 2.2 2.5 3.3 22 9
NTPC SELL 333 320 (4) 3,225 37.8 9,895 24 24 26 14.0 13.6 13 1.7 1.6 1.5 10 10 9 13 12 12 2.4 2.6 2.5 59 35
Power Grid SELL 293 275 (6) 2,726 31.9 9,301 17 20 22 17.4 14.6 13 2.9 2.7 2.4 10 9 8 17 19 19 3.1 3.2 3.4 53 32
Tata Power SELL 397 335 (16) 1,268 14.9 3,196 13 19 22 31 21 18 3.5 3.0 2.6 13 12 11 12 16 15 — — — 33 13
Electric Utilities Cautious 9,339 109.4 18.8 15.7 14.0 2.3 2.1 1.9 11.5 9.7 9.0 12.4 13.4 13.7 2.1 2.2 2.3 203 103
Electronic Manufacturing Services
Amber Enterprises ADD 6,382 7,900 24 216 2.5 34 71 123 183 90 52 35 9.6 8.1 6.5 30 25 18 11 17 21 — — — 37 10
Avalon Technologies SELL 850 610 (28) 57 0.7 65 10 15 21 87 58 40 9.1 7.9 6.6 49 37 27 11 14 18 — — — 5 2
Cyient DLM REDUCE 488 450 (8) 39 0.5 79 9 12 19 57 41 26 4.1 3.7 3.2 28 21 17 7 9 12 — — — 2 1
Dixon Technologies ADD 14,612 17,400 19 883 10.3 60 182 215 272 80.4 67.9 54 29.2 19.5 13.4 59 38 27 30 34 29 — — — 86 29
Kaynes Technology REDUCE 5,821 6,010 3 373 4.4 58 46 72 114 126.8 81.0 51 11.9 10.2 8.4 90 56 36 11 15 20 — — — 42 11
Syrma SGS Technology ADD 537 570 6 96 1.1 176 10 13 19 56 43 29 5.4 4.8 4.1 30 23 17 10 11 15 — — — 7 3
Electronic Manufacturing Services Cautious 1,663 19.5 107.5 64.6 46.3 14.5 11.7 9.1 51.4 35.9 25.3 13.5 18.1 19.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 179 55
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Bayer Cropscience ADD 5,617 5,400 (4) 252 3.0 45 113 174 216 50 32 26 8.6 8.3 7.9 40 25 20 17 26 31 1.7 2.6 3.3 4 2
Godrej Agrovet BUY 763 870 14 147 1.7 192 23 28 33 33 27 23 5.6 5.3 4.7 19 17 14 16 20 22 1.4 1.8 2.1 4.5 2.1
Rallis India SELL 315 230 (27) 61 0.7 194 6 9 11 49 36 28 3.2 3.0 2.8 20 17 14 7 9 10 0.8 0.9 1.1 2 1
UPL SELL 636 470 (26) 517 6.1 844 10 18 28 65 35 23 1.7 1.7 1.6 9 8 7 4 6 8 0.9 0.9 0.9 19 10
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Cautious 977 11.4 43.7 30.3 22.3 2.7 2.5 2.3 12.3 10.7 9.2 6.1 8.1 10.3 1.2 1.5 1.8 30 15
Gas Utilities
GAIL (India) SELL 192 155 (19) 1,261 14.8 6,575 14 13 13 13 15 14 1.8 1.7 1.6 10 10 10 14 12 11 3.9 3.4 3.7 31 16
GSPL RS 329 - (100) 185 2.2 564 14 13 14 23 25 24 1.7 1.7 1.6 14 13 12 8 7 7 1.5 1.5 1.5 3 1
Indraprastha Gas SELL 207 150 (28) 290 3.4 1,400 12 12 12 18 17 17 3.1 2.9 2.8 14 13 13 18 18 17 2.0 2.7 2.8 11 4
Mahanagar Gas SELL 1,319 1,020 (23) 130 1.5 99 101 87 89 13 15 15 2.2 2.0 1.9 9 9 9 18 14 13 2.3 2.3 2.4 8 3
Petronet LNG SELL 305 250 (18) 457 5.4 1,500 27 27 29 11 11 10 2.4 2.0 1.7 7 7 7 22 19 18 3.3 0.8 1.6 8 5
Gas Utilities Cautious 2,324 27.2 13.7 14.7 14.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 9.6 9.7 9.2 14.6 12.7 12.3 3.3 2.6 2.9 62 29
Health Care Services
Apollo Hospitals BUY 6,916 8,515 23 994 11.6 144 101 127 163 69 55 42 12.1 10.2 8.5 34 28 22 19 20 22 0.3 0.3 0.3 33 21
Dr Agarwal's Health Care ADD 334 410 23 106 1.2 316 3 4 6 124 85 59 5.7 5.3 4.9 23 18 15 5 6 9 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dr Lal Pathlabs ADD 2,766 3,250 17 231 2.7 84 53 57 67 52 48 41 10.6 9.6 8.7 32 29 24 22 21 22 1.1 1.1 1.3 7 3
Global Health ADD 1,213 1,275 5 326 3.8 268 19 21 26 63 56 46 9.6 8.4 7.3 35 31 25 17 16 17 0.0 0.3 0.3 3 2
KIMS ADD 664 685 3 266 3.1 400 9 10 15 71 66 43 12.4 10.4 8.4 36 32 23 19 17 21 0.0 0.0 0.0 6 3
Max Healthcare REDUCE 1,152 1,070 (7) 1,120 13.1 971 14 19 25 80 62 46 10.6 9.2 7.8 50 38 29 14 16 18 0.1 0.2 0.2 31 19
Metropolis Healthcare ADD 1,665 1,875 13 86 1.0 52 28 39 47 59 43 35 6.4 5.8 5.2 28 22 19 12 14 16 0.3 0.5 0.8 2 1
Narayana Hrudayalaya REDUCE 1,746 1,705 (2) 357 4.2 204 39 46 55 45 38 32 9.8 7.8 6.3 28 24 20 24 23 22 — — — 22 8
Rainbow Children's Medicare ADD 1,374 1,520 11 140 1.6 102 24 28 33 57 49 42 9.5 8.1 7.0 27 24 20 18 18 18 0.2 0.3 0.3 4 2
Health Care Services Neutral 3,901 45.7 67.3 54.5 42.3 9.9 8.5 7.3 35.5 29.2 23.3 14.7 15.7 17.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 115 63

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 65

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks

Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 2-Jun-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Hotels & Restaurants
Chalet Hotels ADD 921 930 1 201 2.4 218 7 27 40 141 34 23 6.6 5.6 4.5 30 20 14 6 18 22 0.0 (0.2) (0.3) 3 1
Devyani International BUY 169 190 12 204 2.4 1,206 0 (0) 0 1,131 NM 444 18.6 18.7 18.3 26 22 19 2 NM 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 2
Indian Hotels ADD 784 880 12 1,115 13.1 1,423 11 16 21 70 48 38 10.0 8.5 7.1 39 28 22 16 19 20 0.0 0.3 0.3 43 24
Jubilant Foodworks ADD 660 720 9 436 5.1 660 3 5 7 199 137 96 19.2 17.4 15.2 37 30 25 10 13 17 0.2 0.2 0.3 16 7
Lemon Tree Hotels REDUCE 139 130 (6) 110 1.3 792 2 3 5 56 41 30 9.4 8.4 7.2 20 16 13 18 21 26 0.0 1.1 1.3 5 2
Restaurant Brands Asia REDUCE 81 85 4 47 0.6 582 (2) (1) (1) NM NM NM 2.1 2.2 2.2 15 12 10 NM NM NM — — — 2 1
Samhi Hotels BUY 198 270 36 44 0.5 221 5 10 15 42 20 14 3.8 3.3 2.8 16 11 9 10 18 22 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 2
Sapphire Foods ADD 318 365 15 102 1.2 320 1 1 2 317 393 166 7.3 7.1 6.8 21 18 16 2 2 4 — — — 2 1
Ventive Hospitality ADD 764 840 10 179 2.1 234 (1) 14 24 NM 53 32 3.7 3.5 3.1 21 18 14 NM 7 10 — — — 2 1
Westlife Foodworld REDUCE 675 700 4 105 1.2 156 1 4 7 865 183 100 17.4 16.2 14.3 33 25 20 2 9 15 — — — 1 0
Hotels & Restaurants Attractive 2,544 29.8 114.4 62.5 44.4 8.8 7.8 6.8 30.2 23.3 18.6 7.7 12.6 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 83 43
Insurance
HDFC Life Insurance BUY 767 875 14 1,651 19.3 2,020 8 10 11 91 79 68 11.2 10.6 9.9 — — — 12 14 15 0.2 0.3 0.4 25 15
ICICI Lombard ADD 1,864 2,100 13 925 10.8 496 51 58 66 37 32 28 6.5 5.5 4.7 — — — 19 19 18 0.4 0.5 0.5 16 11
ICICI Prudential Life BUY 664 790 19 960 11.2 1,441 8 9 11 80 71 63 8.0 7.2 6.5 — — — 10 11 11 0.5 0.5 0.5 10 5
LIC BUY 962 1,260 31 6,087 71.3 6,325 76 80 83 13 12 12 4.8 3.7 3.0 — — — 46 35 28 — — — 16 7
Max Financial Services BUY 1,522 1,540 1 525 6.2 345 2 2 3 816 711 607 — — — — — — 1 1 1 — — — 19 12
Niva Bupa Health Insurance ADD 83 85 2 152 1.8 1,827 1 2 3 75 43 31 — — — — — — 8 10 13 — — — 5 2
PB Fintech SELL 1,758 1,550 (12) 807 9.5 462 8 14 24 230 124 73 — — — 5 10 15 — — — 36 20
SBI Life Insurance ADD 1,803 1,825 1 1,806 21.2 1,005 24 28 33 75 64 55 10.9 9.5 8.3 — — — 15 16 16 0.2 0.2 0.3 25 15
Star Health and Allied Insurance REDUCE 474 400 (16) 279 3.3 588 11 15 20 43 31 24 4.0 3.5 3.1 — — — 10 12 14 — — — 8 5
Insurance Attractive 13,193 154.5 23.0 21.4 19.9 6.3 5.2 4.3 28 24 22 0.1 0.1 0.1 161 91
Internet Software & Services
Brainbees Solutions BUY 341 530 55 178 2.1 486.9 (4) (5) 0 NM NM 4,201 5.9 3.5 3.7 72 68 28 NM NM 0.1 — — — 4 2
Cartrade Tech SELL 1,511 975 (35) 72 0.8 50.8 26 31 37 57 48 40 3.5 3.2 3.0 43 32 25 6.3 6.9 7.7 — — — 10 5
Eternal BUY 241 280 16 2,328 27.3 9,215 1 1 3 415 167 87 7.2 6.9 6.4 330 141 64 2.1 4.2 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 184 90
FSN E-commerce Ventures REDUCE 195 185 (5) 556 6.5 2,875.0 0 1 2 832 203 109 43.0 35.5 26.8 119 72 50 5.2 19.1 28 — — — 24 13
Indiamart REDUCE 2,324 2,425 4 140 1.6 60.0 101 97 106 23 24 22 6.1 5.1 4.3 19 16 14 30 23 21 0.9 0.9 0.9 4 2
Info Edge ADD 1,431 1,625 14 927 10.9 647.2 11 18 21 129 81 69 3.3 3.2 3.1 82 68 57 2.7 4.1 4.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 23 12
Just Dial BUY 883 1,275 44 75 0.9 85.0 69 64 68 13 14 13 1.6 1.5 1.3 7 5 3 13.5 11.1 10.6 — — — 6 2
Swiggy BUY 333 415 25 831 9.7 2,489 (13) (11) (5) NM NM NM 8.1 9.7 10.5 (27) (38) (284) NM NM NM 0.0 0.0 0.0 52 20
Internet Software & Services Attractive 5,106 59.8 NM 433 110 6.1 5.9 5.6 742 161 62 NM 1.4 5.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 306 144
IT Services
Coforge BUY 8,586 9,000 5 574 6.7 70 145 207 263 59 41 33 9.1 8.4 7.7 29 22 18 20 21 25 0.9 1.1 1.8 70 26
Cyient REDUCE 1,334 1,150 (14) 148 1.7 111 55 63 75 24 21 18 2.6 2.4 2.2 12 11 9 12 12 13 1.9 2.4 3.0 9 4
HCL Technologies REDUCE 1,632 1,500 (8) 4,427 51.9 2,718 64 66 72 26 25 23 6.4 6.1 5.7 16 16 15 25 25 26 3.7 3.6 3.7 61 36
Hexaware Technologies BUY 813 940 16 494 5.8 611 19 24 29 42 33 28 9.2 8.2 7.2 26 21 18 24 26 28 1.1 1.6 2.0 13 8
Indegene BUY 605 660 9 145 1.7 241 17 20 24 36 30 26 5.7 4.8 4.2 23 19 16 21 17 17 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 2
Infosys BUY 1,554 1,700 9 6,455 75.6 4,151 63 66 72 25 24 21 6.7 6.3 6.0 16 15 14 29 28 29 3.1 3.2 4.0 164 99
KPIT Technologies SELL 1,332 1,000 (25) 365 4.3 274 28 31 37 48 44 36 12.5 10.4 8.7 28 26 21 30 26 26 0.6 0.8 1.0 21 8
L&T Technology Services REDUCE 4,359 4,100 (6) 461 5.4 106 119 130 152 37 33 29 7.6 6.8 6.0 23 21 18 22 21 22 1.0 1.1 1.3 8 4
LTIMindtree ADD 5,065 5,200 3 1,501 17.6 296 156 173 199 33 29 25 6.6 6.0 5.4 21 19 17 22 21 22 1.3 1.8 2.2 25 12
Mphasis REDUCE 2,491 2,400 (4) 474 5.5 189 90 98 111 28 25 22 4.9 4.6 4.3 17 16 14 18 19 20 2.2 2.8 3.0 18 9
Persistent Systems SELL 5,519 4,500 (18) 863 10.1 156 90 111 128 61 50 43 13.6 11.6 9.8 41 34 28 25 25 25 0.6 0.7 0.8 46 19
RateGain REDUCE 442 540 22 52 0.6 119 18 16 19 25 28 23 3.1 2.8 2.5 20 22 17 13 11 11 — — — 2 1
Tata Elxsi SELL 6,411 4,100 (36) 399 4.7 62 126 122 146 51 53 44 14.0 13.1 12.0 38 38 31 30 26 29 1.2 1.4 1.6 22 7
Tata Technologies SELL 774 500 (35) 314 3.7 406 17 18 21 46 42 37 8.8 7.9 7.2 32 31 28 20 20 20 1.5 1.2 1.3 26 10
TCS BUY 3,450 3,800 10 12,482 146.2 3,619 134 141 153 26 24 23 12.9 11.8 10.9 18 17 15 51 50 50 3.3 3.4 3.7 117 72
Tech Mahindra BUY 1,549 1,650 7 1,371 16.1 890 48 60 78 32 26 20 5.0 4.8 4.6 19 15 12 16 19 24 2.5 2.6 3.3 40 23
Wipro SELL 248 225 (9) 2,596 30.4 10,491 13 13 13 20 20 19 3.1 3.0 2.9 12 12 11 17 16 16 2.4 3.6 3.8 41 19
IT Services Neutral 33,122 387.9 26.7 25.1 22.8 7.4 6.9 6.4 17.5 16.5 14.9 27.7 27.4 28.3 2.7 2.9 3.3 686 332

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 66

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks

Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 2-Jun-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Media
PVR INOX BUY 1,014 1,200 18 100 1.2 98 (15) 12 36 NM 86 28 1.2 1.2 1.1 29 15 10 NM 1 4 - 0.0 0.0 5 2
Sun TV Network REDUCE 638 650 2 252 2.9 394 44 45 48 14 14 13 2.2 2.0 1.8 11 9 8 16 15 14 2.3 2.5 2.7 2 1
Zee Entertainment Enterprises REDUCE 128 115 (10) 123 1.4 960 8 9 9 16 15 14 1.1 1.0 1.0 9 8 7 7 7 7 1.9 2.3 2.7 19 8
Media Neutral 474 5.6 20.0 17.4 15.1 1.5 1.4 1.3 12.3 9.8 8.2 7.5 8.2 8.8 1.7 1.9 2.1 25 11
Metals & Mining
Gravita India ADD 1,856 2,175 17 137 1.6 74 42 59 70 44 31 27 6.6 5.6 4.8 33.6 27.4 22.2 21 19 19 0.3 0.5 0.6 11 4
Hindalco Industries BUY 631 735 16 1,418 16.6 2,220 76 64 66 8 10 9 1.1 1.0 0.9 5.4 5.5 5.3 15 11 10 0.8 1.0 1.1 46 24
Hindustan Zinc SELL 453 350 (23) 1,915 22.4 4,225 25 24 25 18 19 18 14.4 14.4 14.4 11.1 10.9 10.5 73 76 78 6.4 5.3 5.5 12 5
Jindal Steel and Power BUY 944 1,150 22 963 11.3 1,020 40 72 95 23 13 10 2.0 1.8 1.5 11.3 7.9 5.8 9 14 17 0.2 0.4 0.5 22 10
JSW Steel REDUCE 979 1,000 2 2,394 28.0 2,445 16 63 80 62 15 12 3.0 2.6 2.2 13.8 8.3 6.9 5 18 19 0.3 0.6 0.8 24 12
National Aluminium Co. REDUCE 181 205 13 332 3.9 1,837 29 22 22 6 8 8 1.8 1.6 1.5 3.6 4.5 4.0 33 21 19 4.4 4.8 5.0 28 11
NMDC SELL 71 55 (22) 622 7.3 8,792 7 7 7 10 10 10 2.1 1.9 1.7 6.8 7.1 7.5 23 19 17 4.7 4.4 4.3 20 9
SAIL SELL 131 80 (39) 540 6.3 4,130 6 9 7 21 14 18 0.9 0.9 0.8 7.8 6.4 7.0 4 6 5 1.5 2.2 1.7 30 10
Tata Steel SELL 159 135 (15) 1,985 23.3 12,486 2 12 14 82 14 12 2.2 2.0 1.8 11.7 7.1 6.5 3 15 16 2.3 2.6 2.8 75 34
Vedanta REDUCE 432 435 1 1,691 19.8 3,910 35 41 49 12 11 9 4.1 3.5 3.0 5.6 4.9 4.2 39 36 36 10.1 5.4 6.3 50 23
Metals & Mining Cautious 11,996 140.5 18.1 13.0 11.5 2.4 2.1 1.9 8.5 6.9 6.2 13.1 16.4 16.5 3.4 2.8 3.0 318 136
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
BPCL SELL 317 220 (31) 1,374 16.1 4,273 34 24 22 9 13 14 1.7 1.5 1.4 5.8 7.2 7.9 19 12 10 3.2 2.4 2.3 39 19
Coal India REDUCE 400 375 (6) 2,463 28.8 6,163 57 60 59 7 7 7 2.5 2.1 1.8 7.2 5.5 5.0 39 34 28 6.6 6.8 6.9 34 17
HPCL SELL 408 210 (49) 869 10.2 2,128 35 29 32 12 14 13 1.9 1.7 1.6 9.3 9.7 9.2 17 13 13 2.6 2.2 2.3 29 13
IOCL SELL 143 85 (41) 2,025 23.7 14,121 8 13 13 18 11 11 1.1 1.1 1.0 8.3 6.5 6.3 6 10 9 2.0 2.8 2.8 26 12
Oil India SELL 424 315 (26) 689 8.1 1,627 38 42 44 11 10 10 1.5 1.4 1.3 8.2 7.1 6.6 14 14 14 2.7 3.5 3.6 14 6
ONGC BUY 238 285 20 2,998 35.1 12,580 29 42 46 8 6 5 0.9 0.8 0.7 4.3 3.6 3.3 11 14 14 5.1 4.9 5.3 38 18
Reliance Industries BUY 1,414 1,520 8 19,131 224.1 13,532 51 60 72 27 23 20 2.3 2.1 1.9 13.2 11.2 9.3 9 9 10 — 0.4 0.4 225 141
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Neutral 29,549 346.1 16.3 13.9 12.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 9.2 7.9 7.0 11.1 11.8 11.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 404 226
Pharmaceuticals
Alivus Life Sciences BUY 1,035 1,350 30 127 1.5 123 40 43 52 26 24 20 4.5 3.8 3.2 18 17 14 19 17 17 - - - 1 1
Aurobindo Pharma SELL 1,137 1,100 (3) 660 7.7 586 60 66 75 19 17 15 2.0 1.9 1.7 10 9 8 11 11 12 0.0 1.9 2.3 18 8
Biocon REDUCE 334 345 3 401 4.7 1,202 (1) 8 13 NM 43 25 1.4 1.4 1.3 17 13 10 NM 3 5 0.2 0.5 0.8 11 4
Blue Jet Healthcare ADD 918 820 (11) 159 1.9 173 18 24 29 52 38 32 14.1 10.4 8.0 41 29 23 31 31 29 0.1 0.1 0.2 5 3
Cipla BUY 1,470 1,800 22 1,187 13.9 806 65 65 68 22 23 22 3.8 3.4 3.0 16 15 14 18 16 15 0.9 1.0 1.1 31 18
Concord Biotech ADD 1,819 1,875 3 190 2.2 105 36 43 53 51 43 34 10.5 8.9 7.5 37 31 25 22 23 24 0.5 0.6 0.8 4 2
Divis Laboratories SELL 6,539 5,000 (24) 1,736 20.3 265 83 101 134 79 65 49 11.6 10.4 9.1 57 46 35 15 17 20 0.5 0.6 0.7 38 22
Dr Reddy's Laboratories REDUCE 1,248 1,180 (5) 1,041 12.2 832 70 65 54 18 19 23 3.1 2.7 2.5 12 12 13 19 15 11 0.6 0.8 0.8 32 18
Emcure Pharmaceuticals BUY 1,350 1,625 20 256 3.0 189 36 50 58 37 27 23 5.7 5.0 4.3 18 14 12 19 20 20 - 0.9 1.1 3 1
Gland Pharma REDUCE 1,612 1,500 (7) 266 3.1 164 43 59 72 38 27 22 2.9 2.7 2.5 19 15 13 8 10 12 1.2 1.6 1.7 6 3
JB Chemicals & Pharma BUY 1,684 2,200 31 262 3.1 157 42 52 59 40 33 28 7.7 6.6 5.7 25 21 18 21 22 22 0.9 0.9 1.0 7 4
Laurus Labs SELL 611 475 (22) 330 3.9 536 7 10 12 91 64 49 7.3 6.6 5.9 34 25 21 8 11 13 0.1 0.2 0.2 15 6
Lupin ADD 1,961 2,305 18 895 10.5 455 72 85 83 27 23 24 5.2 4.4 3.8 17 14 14 21 20 17 0.4 0.8 0.7 27 14
Mankind Pharma ADD 2,414 2,600 8 996 11.7 412 48 53 70 50 46 35 6.9 6.2 5.4 35 27 22 17 14 17 - 0.4 0.5 15 9
Piramal Pharma BUY 206 305 48 273 3.2 1,323 1 1 4 320 237 55 3.3 3.3 3.1 22 21 14 1 1 6 - - - 15 6
Sai Life Sciences REDUCE 724 750 4 151 1.8 207 8 10 14 88 72 53 7.1 6.4 5.7 36 30 23 11 9 11 - - - 5 3
Sun Pharmaceuticals ADD 1,675 1,875 12 4,018 47.1 2,399 48 51 60 35 33 28 5.6 4.9 4.3 25 23 20 17 16 16 0.9 0.6 0.7 57 36
Syngene International BUY 650 850 31 262 3.1 402 12 11 16 55 61 40 5.5 5.1 4.6 24 23 17 11 9 12 0.2 0.2 0.3 10 6
Torrent Pharmaceuticals REDUCE 3,128 3,150 1 1,059 12.4 338 57 71 86 55 44 36 13.9 12.1 10.2 29 25 22 27 29 31 1.0 1.2 1.3 14 9
Pharmaceuticals Neutral 14,270 167.1 35.9 32.3 28.3 4.8 4.3 3.9 21.7 19.4 17.1 13.5 13.4 13.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 316 170

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

India Research

k.kathirvelu-kotak.com
 67

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks

Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 2-Jun-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Real Estate
Brigade Enterprises BUY 1,176 1,365 16 288 3.4 244 28 31 47 42 38 25 5.1 4.5 3.9 21 19 13 15 13 17 0.2 0.2 0.2 5 2
Brookfield India Real Estate Trust ADD 304 325 7 185 2.2 608 7 7 10 45 42 30 0.7 1.4 1.5 15 13 12 2 3 4 9.8 6.7 7.3 4 4
DLF BUY 811 1,020 26 2,007 23.5 2,475 18 18 25 46 44 32 4.7 4.4 4.0 95 56 37 11 10 13 0.7 0.9 1.0 36 15
Embassy Office Parks REIT ADD 388 400 — 368 4.3 948 23 10 15 17 39 25 1.6 1.7 1.8 18 16 14 9 4 7 5.9 6.2 6.6 5 4
Godrej Properties SELL 2,282 2,100 (8) 687 8.0 301 46 55 86 49 41 27 4.0 3.6 3.2 1,627 147 47 10 9 13 — — — 26 12
Macrotech Developers BUY 1,434 1,480 3 1,431 16.8 998 28 37 46 52 39 31 7.1 6.0 5.0 37 28 22 15 17 18 — — — 24 10
Mindspace REIT ADD 395 420 6 240 2.8 609 8 12 17 50 33 23 1.6 1.7 1.8 18 16 14 3 5 8 5.4 6.0 6.5 1 1
Nexus Select Trust ADD 135 145 7 204 2.4 1,515 3 5 5 42 29 25 1.4 1.5 1.6 17 15 14 3 5 6 6.2 6.7 7.2 3 2
Oberoi Realty REDUCE 1,768 1,700 (4) 643 7.5 364 61 76 99 29 23 18 4.1 3.5 2.9 21 17 13 15 16 18 0.6 0.7 0.8 14 7
Phoenix Mills REDUCE 1,582 1,570 (1) 565 6.6 358 38 48 53 41 33 30 5.4 4.7 4.1 26 20 17 14 15 15 0.2 0.2 0.2 14 7
Prestige Estates Projects ADD 1,540 1,700 10 663 7.8 431 11 21 36 134 72 43 4.1 4.1 3.8 29 22 17 4 6 9 0.1 0.2 0.2 13 6
Signature Global BUY 1,229 1,492 21 173 2.0 141 7 31 57 171 39 22 23.8 14.8 8.8 413 51 20 15 47 51 — — — 6 1
Sobha ADD 1,453 1,580 9 155 1.8 107 9 35 59 168 42 25 3.4 3.2 2.9 50 23 14 3 8 12 0.2 0.3 0.4 4 2
Sunteck Realty BUY 426 600 41 62 0.7 140 11 23 32 40 19 13 1.8 1.7 1.5 35 14 10 5 9 12 0.2 0.2 0.2 1 1
Real Estate Attractive 7,672 89.8 45.3 38.5 28.0 3.8 3.6 3.3 34.0 25.7 19.5 8.4 9.4 11.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 156 73
Renewable Energy
Premier Energies SELL 1,077 900 (16) 486 5.7 451 21 27 43 52 39 25 17.2 12.0 8.1 27 19 13 54 36 38 — — — 18 6
Waaree Energies SELL 2,921 2,600 (11) 839 9.8 288 68 119 197 43 25 15 8.5 6.5 4.5 28 16 10 28 31 36 — — — 73 22
Renewable Energy Cautious 8,157 15.5 47.2 28.4 17.4 10.8 7.8 5.4 27.9 17.2 11.2 23 27 31 0.0 0.0 0.0 91 28
Retailing
Avenue Supermarts SELL 4,026 3,400 (16) 2,620 30.7 651 42 48 60 97 83 67 12.2 10.7 9.2 58 50 41 13 14 15 — — — 28 14
Metro Brands SELL 1,210 1,100 (9) 329 3.9 272 13 16 20 93 74 61 19.3 16.7 14.2 43 36 30 20 24 25 2— 0.5 0.6 1 1
Titan Company REDUCE 3,526 3,375 (4) 3,130 36.7 888 42 50 59 83 70 59 26.9 21.3 17.2 51 44 38 36 34 32 0.3 0.5 0.5 37 21
Trent REDUCE 5,622 5,250 (7) 1,998 23.4 356 43 60 76 130 93 74 36.6 26.4 19.5 73 58 47 32 33 30 — — — 83 34
Vishal Mega Mart ADD 127 125 (1) 586 6.9 4,727 1 2 2 95 74 59 9.4 8.3 7.3 38 31 25 11 12 13 — — — 26 12
Retailing Neutral 6,079 103.4 93.8 76.6 63.0 18.5 15.4 12.8 54.2 45.7 38.2 19.7 20 20 0.2 0.2 0.2 184 70
Specialty Chemicals
Aarti Industries SELL 471 350 (26) 171 2.0 363 9 9 13 52 50 36 3.0 2.9 2.7 21 18 15 6 6 8 0.2 0.3 0.4 10 4
Aether Industries ADD 746 910 22 99 1.2 133 13 16 21 58 45 36 4.4 4.1 3.6 41 30 23 8 9 11 - - 0.0 2 1
Ami Organics BUY - 1,450 - - 0.0 80 20 27 38 NM NM NM - - - (1) (1) (1) 16 16 18 - - - -
Atul SELL 7,073 5,450 (23) 208 2.4 29 164 224 262 43 32 27 3.7 3.4 3.1 21 16 14 9 11 12 0.4 0.6 0.7 8 4
Castrol India ADD 216 225 4 214 2.5 989 9 11 12 23 20 18 9.4 8.5 7.6 16 14 12 42 45 44 3.7 3.9 4.2 17 6
Clean Science & Technology ADD 1,506 1,500 (0) 160 1.9 106 25 32 43 60 47 35 11.3 9.4 7.7 41 32 25 20 22 24 0.3 0.3 0.5 2 1
Deepak Nitrite ADD 1,995 2,180 9 272 3.2 136 51 59 70 39 34 29 5.0 4.4 3.9 25 23 21 14 14 14 0.3 0.3 0.4 7 3
Navin Fluorine SELL 4,395 3,390 (23) 218 2.6 50 58 77 107 75 57 41 8.3 7.4 6.5 43 32 24 12 14 17 0.3 0.3 0.5 9 5
Neogen Chemicals ADD 1,674 1,610 (4) 44 0.5 26 19 21 40 90 79 42 5.6 5.3 4.2 37 39 20 6 7 11 0.1 0.1 0.2 1 0
Pidilite Industries ADD 3,080 3,175 3 1,567 18.3 509 41 47 53 75 66 58 16.1 14.6 13.3 51 45 40 23 23 24 0.6 0.9 1.1 13 8
PI Industries SELL 3,828 3,030 (21) 581 6.8 152 109 113 130 35 34 30 5.7 5.0 4.4 26 24 20 18 16 16 0.4 0.5 0.5 13 7
S H Kelkar and Company BUY 243 400 64 34 0.4 138 10 11 15 25 22 16 2.6 2.4 2.2 14 11 8 11 11 14 0.4 1.7 1.8 1 1
SRF SELL 2,899 2,060 (29) 859 10.1 296 42 59 76 69 49 38 6.8 6.2 5.5 33 27 22 10 13 15 0.4 0.5 0.5 25 14
Vinati Organics SELL 1,855 1,170 (37) 192 2.3 104 39 45 53 47 41 35 6.9 6.1 5.3 33 27 23 15 16 16 0.4 0.5 0.6 2 1
Specialty Chemicals Neutral 4,619 54.1 51.7 43.7 36.3 7.2 6.5 5.8 31.7 27.0 22.7 14.0 14.9 15.9 0.6 0.8 0.9 111 55

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

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 68

Kotak Institutional Equities: Valuation summary of KIE Universe stocks

Price (Rs) Fair Value Upside Mkt cap. O/S shares EPS (Rs) P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE (%) Dividend yield (%) ADV-3M (US$ mn)
Company Rating 2-Jun-25 (Rs) (%) (Rs bn) (US$ bn) (mn) 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E Traded Delivered
Telecommunication Services
Bharti Airtel ADD 1,854 1,935 4 11,121 130.2 5,800 35 54 70 53 35 26 9.5 8.1 6.7 13 10 8 21 25 28 0.9 1.1 1.3 181 122
Indus Towers SELL 383 385 1 1,009 11.8 2,638 23 25 28 16 15 14 3.1 3.0 3.0 6 6 5 21 20 22 - 5.9 6.5 35 19
Vodafone Idea SELL 7 6 (15) 762 8.9 108,343 (4) (2) (2) NM NM NM NM NM NM 17 16 14 NM NM NM — — — 56 19
Tata Communications SELL 1,676 1,480 (12) 478 5.6 285 33 53 65 51 31 26 15.8 12.6 9.5 13 11 10 39 45 42 1.5 1.3 1.6 10 5
Telecommunication Services Attractive 13,370 156.6 #### 89.9 50.2 17 18 17 13.0 10.1 8.6 0.0 19.6 33 0.7 1.4 1.6 283 166
Transportation
Adani Ports and SEZ BUY 1,468 1,720 17 3,171 37.1 2,160 53 64 73 28 23 20 5.1 4.3 3.6 19 16 14 20 20 19 0.6 0.6 0.6 45 19
Container Corp. SELL 778 690 (11) 474 5.6 609 21 25 30 36 31 26 3.8 3.6 3.4 23 20 16 11 12 14 1.2 1.4 1.7 15 7
Delhivery BUY 367 420 15 274 3.2 758 1 3 4 255 117 83 2.9 2.9 2.7 72 39 29 1 2 3 — — — 19 8
Gateway Distriparks BUY 66 81 23 33 0.4 500 5 5 6 14 13 11 1.5 1.4 1.3 10 7 6 12 11 12 2.8 3.1 3.4 1 1
GMR Airports ADD 86 91 6 903 10.6 6,036 (2) 0 1 NM ###### 120 NM NM NM 32 21 19 NM 3 186 — — — 14 8
Gujarat Pipavav Port REDUCE 158 150 (5) 77 0.9 483 8 9 10 19 17 15 3.6 3.0 2.5 11 10 9 19 19 18 5— — — 4 2
InterGlobe Aviation BUY 5,333 6,700 26 2,061 24.1 383 190 273 354 28 20 15 21.8 10.3 5.1 9 7 5 128 72 51 — — — 98 57
JSW Infrastructure SELL 290 255 (12) 609 7.1 2,119 7 8 8 42 38 34 6.3 5.6 23.4 28 24 23 16 16 15 0.5 0.5 0.6 11 6
Transportation Attractive 7,601 89.0 36.0 26.7 22.1 7.1 5.7 4.6 16.9 13.6 11.4 19.6 21 21 0.4 0.4 0.4 208 108
KIE universe 315,517 3,695 26.6 23.4 20.2 3.8 3.4 3.1 16.0 13.7 12.0 14.3 14.7 15.2 1.3 1.4 1.5

Notes:
(a) We have used adjusted book values for banking companies.
(b) 2024 means calendar year 2023, similarly for 2025 and 2026 for these particular companies.
(c) Exchange rate (Rs/US$)= 85.4

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates

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 69

DISCLAIMERS, DISCLOSURES & LEGAL

Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationships
Kotak Institutional Equities Research coverage universe

Percentage of companies covered by Kotak Institutional

70%
Equities, within the specified category.

60%
Percentage of companies within each category for which
50% Kotak Institutional Equities and or its affiliates has
provided investment banking services within the previous
12 months.
40%
* The above categories are defined as follows: Buy = We
30.1% expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over
30% 26.9% the next 12 months; Add = We expect this stock to deliver
22.4% 5-15% returns over the next 12 months; Reduce = We
20.6%
20% expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next
12 months; Sell = We expect this stock to deliver less than
-5% returns over the next 12 months. Our target prices
10% 5.6% are also on a 12-month horizon basis. These ratings are
4.2% 3.8% 4.5%
used illustratively to comply with applicable regulations. As
of 31/03/2025 Kotak Institutional Equities Investment
0%
BUY ADD REDUCE SELL Research had investment ratings on 286 equity securities.

Source: Kotak Institutional Equities

As of March 31, 2025

Ratings and other definitions/identifiers

Definitions of ratings

BUY. We expect this stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months.
ADD. We expect this stock to deliver 5-15% returns over the next 12 months.
REDUCE. We expect this stock to deliver -5-+5% returns over the next 12 months.
SELL. We expect this stock to deliver <-5% returns over the next 12 months.

Our Fair Value estimates are also on a 12-month horizon basis.Our Ratings System does not take into account short-term volatility in stock prices related
to movements in the market. Hence, a particular Rating may not strictly be in accordance with the Rating System at all times.

Other definitions
Coverage view. The coverage view represents each analyst’s overall fundamental outlook on the Sector. The coverage view will consist of one of the
following designations: Attractive, Neutral, Cautious.

Other ratings/identifiers
NR = Not Rated. The investment rating and fair value, if any, have been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable
regulation(s) and/or Kotak Securities policies in circumstances when Kotak Securities or its affiliates is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or
strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances.

CS = Coverage Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended coverage of this company.

NC = Not Covered. Kotak Securities does not cover this company.

RS = Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities Research has suspended the investment rating and fair value, if any, for this stock, because there is not a
sufficient fundamental basis for determining an investment rating or fair value. The previous investment rating and fair value, if any, are no longer in
effect for this stock and should not be relied upon.

NA = Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable.
NM = Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.

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