Daily Bullion Physical Market Report Date: 11th November 2022

Daily India Spot Market Rates Gold and Silver 999 Watch
Description Purity AM PM Date GOLD* SILVER*
Gold 999 51619 51514
10th November2022 51514 61200
Gold 995 51412 51308
Gold 916 47283 47187 09th November2022 51514 61550

Gold 750 38714 38636

07th November2022 50958 60245
Gold 585 30197 30136
04th November2022 50522 58755
Silver 999 61248 61200
*Rate as exclusive of GST as of 10th November 2022 Gold is Rs/10 Gm & Silver in Rs/Kg The above rates are IBJA PM Rates; *Rates are exclusive of GST

COMEX Futures Watch ETF Holdings as on Previous Close

Description Contract Close Change %Chg ETFs Long Short

Gold($/oz) DEC 22 1753.70 40.00 2.33 SPDR Gold 911.57 3.19

Silver($/oz) DEC 22 21.70 0.38 1.76 iShares Silver 14,695.66 11.46

Gold and Silver Fix Bullion Futures DGCX Gold Ratio

Description LTP Description Contract LTP Description LTP
Gold London AM Fix($/oz) 1705.65 Gold($/oz) DEC. 22 1757.4
Gold Silver Ratio 80.81
Gold London PM Fix($/oz) 1744.75 Gold Quanto DEC. 22 52129

21.09 Silver($/oz) DEC. 22 21.78 Gold Crude Ratio 20.28

Silver London Fix($/oz)

Weekly CFTC Positions MCX Indices

Long Short Net Index Close Net Change % Chg
Gold($/oz) 82503 121381 -38878
MCX iCOMDEX
14396.16 145.61 1.01 %
Silver 37660 41128 -3468 Bullion

Macro-Economic Indicators
Time Country Event Forecast Previous Impact
11th November 08:30 pm United States Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 59.5 59.9 High
11th November 08:30 pm United States Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations - 5.0% Medium
Nirmal Bang Securities - Daily Bullion News and Summary
 Gold and copper jumped to the highest since August after US inflation data came in cooler than expected, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to slow
down its aggressive rate hikes. The US consumer price index rose 0.4% in October from the month before, below economists’ median forecast of 0.6%. The
dollar plunged following the print, easing pressure on commodities priced in the greenback. The data will embolden bets that the Fed will begin to slow their
aggressive monetary tightening, a prospect Chair Jerome Powell mooted last week. He still continued to emphasize the central bank’s commitment to bringing
down inflation, as well as the fact that rates may have to reach a higher level than previously anticipated.

 Exchange-traded funds cut 35,530 troy ounces of gold from their holdings in the last trading session, bringing this year's net sales to 3.52 million ounces,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The sales were equivalent to $60.6 million at yesterday‘s spot price. Total gold held by ETFs fell 3.6 percent this year
to 94.3 million ounces. Gold declined 6.7 percent this year to $1,706.74 an ounce and by 0.3 percent in the latest session. State Street's SPDR Gold Shares, the
biggest precious- metals ETF, maintained its holdings in the last session. The fund's total of 29.2 million ounces has a market value of $49.8 billion. ETFs also cut
3.48 million troy ounces of silver from their holdings in the last trading session, bringing this year's net sales to 133 million ounces. Palladium holdings decreased
by 1.3 troy ounces, for the fifth straight day.

 The world’s second-biggest buyer of gold among central banks last quarter believes there’s hardly such a thing as too much bullion. Uzbekistan has brought
the share of the precious metal in its $32 billion reserves to almost two-thirds, in a reversal of a plan to cut it below 50% by buying US and Chinese sovereign
debt. The proportion is now among the highest in developing economies tracked by the World Gold Council, even as total Uzbek reserves have grown by about a
quarter since the central bank broached the idea of diversifying away from bullion more than three years ago. “We thought about investing in Treasuries, but
then the market itself didn’t let us do it,” the Uzbek central bank’s deputy chairman, Behzod Hamraev, said in an interview. With gold prices surging to a record
in 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic, Hamraev said the central bank changed course. “Prices were really good and we continued with gold,” he said in the
Silk Road city of Samarkand. Central Asia’s most populous nation has stood out this year even as central banks scooped up a record of almost 400 tons of gold
last quarter, more than quadruple the amount a year earlier, according to the WGC, a lobby group for the mining industry. Uzbekistan’s purchases of 26 tons
were second only to Turkey’s. Gold’s appeal as a safe haven for investors has grown after sanctions imposed this year on the central bank of Russia, Uzbekistan’s
second-biggest trading partner, over the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. While penalties levied by the US and its allies cut off Russia’s access to about $300 billion
of reserves held in foreign currencies such as dollars and euros, bullion remained largely beyond their reach.

 US and European mining stocks bounced on Thursday after US inflation data came in cooler than anticipated, sending metals including gold and copper higher.
Gold and copper hit the highest levels since August following the inflation print as the dollar sunk, abating pressure on commodities that are priced in the
currency. In the US and Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite Materials index rose as much as 4.8%, hitting the highest level since June 28; S&P Super-composite
Metals & Mining index up as much as 5.9%, highest since August. Alcoa, Freeport-McMoRan, Newmont Corp all jump. Elsewhere, Torex Gold, Capstone Copper,
Fortuna Silver Mines, First Quantum and Osisko Mining all up by 10% or more. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Basic Resources index turned positive after the inflation
data, gaining as much as 2.1% after having declined as much as 1.7% earlier in the session. Anglo American was the biggest contributor to the gain, with copper
miners Boliden, Antofagasta and KGHM all higher, too.

 Bond traders are declaring victory over the Federal Reserve’s war on inflation after it slowed last month to a weaker pace than economist forecasts. A part of
the yield curve that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell watches closely to monitor recession risks inverted for the first time since the pandemic hit in early
2020. The so-called near-term forward spread -- which tracks the difference between expected yields on three-month Treasury bills in 18 months and those on
current T-bills -- fell to minus 14 basis points Thursday. Powell argued that an inversion in the measure “means the Fed’s going to cut, which means the economy
is weak,” when he brought investors’ attention to it earlier this year. It has now joined other parts of the yield curve, such as three-month and 10-year, that have
turned upside down, which typically shows expectations that economic growth is poised to halt. A 2018 Fed research paper first highlighted the importance of
this forward curve as a more reliable recession indicator than traditional yield curves. In this case, however, the inversion was set off by the report showing that
inflation cooled in October, not by bad economic news that stoked recession fears. Stocks rose sharply and bond yields tumbled afterward, with investors
anticipating that it will give the Fed room to ease up on its aggressive monetary policy tightening.

 Fundamental Outlook: Gold and silver prices are trading higher on international bourses. We expect precious metals prices on Indian bourses to trade range-
bound to higher for the day. We recommend buy on dips in gold and silver in intra-day trading sessions after cooler-than-expected US inflation data set the stage
for a slowdown in aggressive US rate hikes. A relaxation in the Federal Reserve’s monetary-tightening path would likely be positive for gold, which bears no
interest and is priced in the US currency, meaning it typically has a negative correlation with the dollar and rates.

Key Market Levels for the Day

Time Month S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

Gold – COMEX December 1700 1720 1735 1755 1780 1800

Silver – COMEX December 21.00 21.18 21.40 21.65 21.85 22.15

Gold – MCX October 51500 51750 52000 52200 52400 52650

Silver – MCX December 60700 61200 61700 62300 62850 63300

Nirmal Bang Securities - Daily Currency Market Update
Dollar Index Market Summary and News
LTP/Close Change % Change The Indian rupee dropped, in line with emerging Asian peers, as traders
avoided big bets ahead of key US inflation data. Bonds advanced.
108.21 -2.34 -2.12 USD/INR gained 0.5% to 81.8062. Investors are looking for firmer signs of a
peak in US inflation that could herald a slowdown in the pace and severity of
the Fed’s monetary tightening. The rupee is trading weaker along with most
Bond Yield emerging market currencies, reflecting some wariness before the release of
10 YR Bonds LTP Change US CPI data and there is very less probability of any material appreciation in
INR from current levels, although the downside too has been capped given
United States 3.8125 0.0000 the recent moves and would remain in 81-83 range for USD/INR holding for a
Europe 2.0050 -0.1620 while. Bond yields in India tracked global peers to end lower as risk-off
sentiment swirls through markets. While the Fed remains hawkish and data-
Japan 0.2530 -0.0120 dependent, the near-term downside risk from tomorrow’s US core CPI poses
a risk.
India 7.3490 -0.0380
Japan is enjoying some success in its battle with speculators targeting the
Emerging Market Currency enfeebled yen and the central bank’s stubborn grip on yields, but more tests
lie ahead. After months of jawboning turned into concrete action in the
Currency LTP Change foreign-exchange market, speculative positioning has been pegged back at
Brazil Real least in the currency space. Together with a favorable reduction in demand
5.38 0.1835
for the greenback, that has kept the yen well away from the key 150 per
South Korea Won 1377.8 -36.6000 dollar mark in recent weeks, though US inflation data Thursday is an
emminent threat. Japan’s authorities aren’t likely letting their guard down,
Russia Rubble 60.7417 0.0797 but it’s looking increasingly likely that they’ve persevered and pulled
themselves out of the woods. They’ve also gotten lucky with the external
Chinese Yuan 7.1865 -0.0062 environment, which seems to be changing. Unannounced currency
Vietnam Dong 24867 -22 intervention, ramped-up bond buying and an extra budget have helped Japan
show financial markets that it is standing its ground on stimulus, even as the
Mexican Peso 19.3169 0.0092 rest of the world tightens policy. But investors are well aware it stands alone,
especially in the currency market, where peers like the US have refused to
explicitly endorse its intervention policy. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and
NSE Currency Market Watch Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reinforced their show of a vigilant
and united front Thursday afternoon with an unscheduled meeting, just
Currency LTP Change hours before the US data release.
NDF 80.72 0.14
USDINR 81.8575 0.2475
JPYINR 56.0275 -0.1225
GBPINR 93.265 -0.2925
EURINR 81.5275 -0.5925
USDJPY 146.15 0.76
GBPUSD 1.1397 -0.0065
EURUSD 0.996 -0.0108

Key Market Levels for the Day

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

USDINR Spot 81.2000 81.3000 81.5000 82.1000 82.2800 82.4000

Nirmal Bang Securities - Bullion Technical Market Update

Gold Market Update

Market View
Open 51541
High 52210
Low 51481
Close 52109
Value Change 603
% Change 1.17
Spread Near-Next 192
Volume (Lots) 7832
Open Interest 8035
Change in OI (%) 4.93%

Gold - Outlook for the Day

Gold prices are supportive around $ 1730-1740, where we can buy gold for
target of $ 1770-1785.

BUY GOLD DEC (MCX) AT 51900 SL 51600 TARGET 52300/52500

Silver Market Update

Market View

Open 61360
High 62778
Low 61136
Close 61911
Value Change 350
% Change 0.57
Spread Near-Next -1911
Volume (Lots) 22145
Open Interest 15493
Change in OI (%) -2.39%

Silver - Outlook for the Day

Silver prices are comparatively stronger than gold, we are recommending to buy silver
between 21.50-21.40 for the target of 22.

BUY SILVER DEC (MCX) AT 61700 SL 61200 TARGET 62500/62800

Nirmal Bang Securities - Currency Technical Market Update

USDINR Market Update

Market View

Open 81.7
High 82.0375
Low 81.57
Close 81.8575
Value Change 0.2475
% Change 0.3
Spread Near-Next 0.5314
Volume (Lots) 3386710
Open Interest 2647401
Change in OI (%) -5.41%

USDINR - Outlook for the Day

USDINR opened on a positive note at 81.70 followed by a session in green marking the high
at 82.03 and giving close on a positive note as well. USDINR has formed a green candle with
closure in higher highs and lows but confirmation of a continued bullish leg is still to come.
The pair has given closure below the short and medium term SMA supporting the weakness
in the pair. USDINR, if trades below 81.70, pair will head towards 81.50 – 81.35. Whereas,
momentum above 82.05 will lead the pair to test the highs of 82.37 – 82.45. The daily
strength indicator RSI and momentum oscillator Stochastic both are in negative zone but still
is below their signal line indicating lack of strength in the momentum.

Key Market Levels for the Day

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

USDINR November 81.1000 81.3000 81.5000 82.0500 82.2500 82.4200

Nirmal Bang Securities – Commodity Research Team

Name Designation Email

Kunal Shah Head of Research [email protected]

Devidas Rajadhikary AVP Commodity Research [email protected]

Harshal Mehta AVP Commodity Research [email protected]

Ravi D’souza Sr. Research Analyst [email protected]

Smit Bhayani Research Associate [email protected]

Riya Singh Currency Research Analyst [email protected]

This Document has been prepared by Nirmal Bang Securities Pvt. Ltd. The
information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Nirmal Bang
Securities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to
be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This
document, at best, represents Nirmal Bang Securities Research opinion and is
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officers or employees shall not in any way be responsible for the contents stated
herein. Nirmal Bang Securities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities
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from time to time hold positions in securities referred to herein. Nirmal Bang
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