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INSTITUTE OF TRANSPORTATION STUDIES
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY
Carlos F. Daganzo
Course Notes
UCB-ITS-CN-2010-1
October 2010
Institute of Transportation Studies
University of California at Berkeley
Carlos F. Daganzo
COURSE NOTES
UCB-ITS-CN-2010-1
October 2010
i
Preface
This document is based on a set of lecture notes prepared in 2007-2010 for the U.C. Berkeley
graduate course “CE259-Public Transportation Systems”--a course targeted to first year graduate
students with diverse academic backgrounds.
The document is different from other books on public transportation systems because it is
informal, has a narrower focus and looks at things in a different way. Its focus is the planning,
management and operation of public transportation systems. Important topics such as financing,
governance strategies and urban transportation policy are not covered because they are not
specific to transit systems, and because other books and courses already treat them in depth. The
document is also different because it deemphasizes facts in favor of ideas. Facts that constantly
change and can be found elsewhere, such as transit usage statistics and transit system
characteristics, are not covered.
The document’s way of looking at things, and its structure, is similar to the author’s previous
book “Logistics systems analysis” (Springer, 4th edition, 2005) from which many basic ideas are
borrowed. (Transit systems, after all, are logistics systems for the movement of people.) Both
documents espouse a two-step planning approach that uses idealized models to explore the
largest possible solution space of potential plans. The logical organization is also similar: in both
documents systems are examined in order of increased complexity so that generic insights
evident in simple systems can be put to use as knowledge “building blocks” for the study of
more complex systems.
The document is organized in 8 modules: 5 on planning (general; shuttle systems; corridors; two-
dimensional systems; and unconventional transit); 2 on management (vehicles; and employees);
and 1 on operations (how to keep buses on schedule). The planning modules examine those
aspects of the system that are usually visible to the public, such as routing and scheduling. The
management and operations modules analyze the more mundane aspects required for the system
to work as designed. Two more modules are in the works: management of special events (e.g.,
evacuations; Olympics); and operations in traffic.
Although the document includes new ideas, which could be of use to academics and
professionals, its main aim is as a teaching aid. Thus, a companion document including 7
homework exercises and 3 mini-laboratory projects directly related to the lectures is also made
available. It can be obtained by visiting the Institute of Transportation Studies web site and
ii
looking for a publication entitled: “Public Transportation Systems: Mini-Projects and Homework
Exercises”. Versions of these exercises and mini-projects were used in the 2009 and 2010
installments of CE259: a 14-week course with two 1-hour lectures and one 1-hr discussion
session per week. Sample solutions to the mini-projects and exercises can be obtained by
university professors by writing to the ITS publications office and requesting a third document
entitled: “Public Transportation Systems: Solution Sets”.
The various modules were originally compiled by PhD students Eric Gonzales, Josh Pilachowski
and Vikash Gayah, directly from the lectures. Subsequently, my colleague Prof. Mike Cassidy
used them in an installment of CE259 and offered many comments. This published version has
been edited and reflects the input of all these individuals. Their help is gratefully acknowledged.
The errors, of course, are mine. The financial support of the Volvo Research and Educational
Foundations is also gratefully acknowledged.
Carlos F. Daganzo
September, 2010
Berkeley, California
iii
CONTENTS
Preface .…………………………………………………………………….…………………… i
iv
Module 4: Planning—Two Dimensional Systems ……………………...………………… 4-1
• Idealized Case (New 2-D Issues) ………………………………..……………….. … 4-1
o Systems without Transfers ………………………………..…….…………… 4-2
o The Role of Transfers in 2-D Systems …….……………………………. 4-4
• Realistic Case (No Hierarchy) ……………………..……………………………….… 4-9
o Logistic Cost Function (LCF) Components ……………………………..…… 4-9
o Solution for Generic Insights …………………………………………..…… 4-10
o Modifications in Practical Applications ……………………………….…… 4-12
o General Ideas for Design …………………………………………………… 4-14
• Realistic Case (Hierarchies--Qualitative Discussion) ………………….…………… 4-16
• Time Dependence and Adaptation ………………………………………………… 4-17
• Capacity Constraints ………………………………………………………………… 4-19
• Comparing Collective and Individual Transportation ……………………………… 4-20
v
Module 7: Management—Staffing …………………………………………………..…… 7-1
• Recap ……………………………………………………………………………….…. 7-1
• Staffing a Single Run ……………………………………………………………..…… 7-2
o Effect of Overtime ………………………………………………………..…… 7-3
o Effect of Multiple Worker Types ………………………………………...…… 7-4
• Staffing Multiple Runs …………………………………………………………...…… 7-5
o Run-Cutting …………………………………………………………………… 7-5
o Covering …………………………………………………………….………… 7-6
o Simplified estimation of cost ……………………………………………...……7-6
• Choosing Worker-Types …………………………………………………………….… 7-8
• Dealing with Absenteeism ………………………………………………………..…… 7-9
• What is Still Left to be Done ………………………………………………………… 7-11
vi
Public Transportation Systems: Planning—General Ideas
Outline
• General course info (admin)
• Course substance and organization
• Transit Planning
o Definitions
o How to account for politics
o How to account for demand
o The shortsightedness tragedy
o Planning and design approaches
Imagine public transit in a linear city. Many people travel between different origins and
destinations at different times (thin arrows in the time-space diagram below). Note how people
have to adapt their travel in space to the location of stops and in time to the scheduled service in
order to use transit (thick arrow), and how this adaptation could be reduced by providing more
transit services (more thick arrows). Unfortunately, the thick arrows cost money; and this
1-1
Public Transportation Systems: Planning—General Ideas
competition between supply costs versus demand adaptation turns out always to be at the heart of
transit planning. It will be a central theme in this course.
x
User desired
stop
stop
city
transit
veh trip
adaptation
Transit Planning
Definitions
• Guideway – fixed parts of a transportation system, modeled as links and nodes
(infrastructure)
• Network – set of links and nodes, uni- or multi-modal
• Path – a sequence of links and nodes
• Origin/Destination – beginning and end of a path through a network
• Terminal – node where users can change modes
• Planning – art of developing long term/large scale schemes for the future
• Mobility – the distance people can reach in a given time (e.g. VKT/VHT)
• Accessibility – the opportunities people can reach in a given time (depends on land use)
As shown in the previous figure, there is a trade-off inherent in public transportation because users
give up flexibility (suffering a “level of service” penalty) for economy. To strike this balance
between level of service (LOS) and supply cost in networks for individual modes (e.g. highway,
bike-lanes, and sidewalks), planners can only change the infrastructure. But in collective
transportation, planners also have control over the vehicles’ routes and schedules.
1-2
Public Transportation Systems: Planning—General Ideas
The goal of planning is to achieve efficiency, measured as a combination of LOS and supply costs.
Costs come in different forms, such as time, T, comfort, safety, and money, $, and should be
reduced to some common units. The result is called a generalized cost or disutility, which can be
defined both for individuals and groups, and is usually expressed as a linear combination of
component costs; e.g. for one individual experiencing time T and cost $ it could be:
Note that βT and β$ will vary between individuals, so even though an individual may have a well-
defined generalized cost, the choice of appropriate weights to represent a diverse group is always a
political decision that cannot be resolved objectively.
Note too that transit systems involve costs to non-users—energy, pollution, noise, etc.—and that
since people also disagree about how these should be valued, they further complicate the decision-
making picture.
Clearly, we need to simplify things! (but without ignoring the effects of politics).
To this end, we will assume in this course that there is a political process that has converged to the
establishment of some standards, which would apply to all the non-monetary outputs of the transit
system; e.g.,
And our goal will be minimizing the cost, $, of meeting the standards; i.e.,
Note how each standard is associated with an inequality constraining the value of the performance
output in question. Since these outputs are usually directly connected to 4 key measures of
aggregate motion: VHT, VKT, PHT, PKT, we can often reformulate the standards in terms of
passenger time (distance) and vehicle time (distance).
Alternatively, since all variables in this MP (both monetary and non-monetary), which we
collectively call y = ($, T, E, M, A), are functions of the system design, x, (i.e., the routes and
schedules used for the whole system) and the demand, α (which we assume to be given), we can
express the MP in terms of x and α.
1-3
Public Transportation Systems: Planning—General Ideas
To make this formulation more concrete, let us define these relations by means of a vector-valued
function Fm:
y = Fm(x, α)
where,
y – performance outputs for the entire system (both monetary and non-monetary)
m – mode
x – design variables for the entire system
α – demand
We then look for the value of x that minimizes the $-component of y while the other components
satisfy the standards constraints. The result is as a best design, x*(α), which if implemented would
yield y*(α) = Fm(x*(α),α) = Gm(α). This function represents the best performance possible from
mode m with given demand α. We will, in this course, compare the Gm(α) for different modes.
To see all this more concretely, consider a simple transit system where all users are concentrated at
two points.
Define now the components of Fm. We assume that each vehicle dispatch costs cf monetary units.
Thus we have:
Note: we have defined $ as an average cost per passenger. We could instead have defined $ as the
total system cost per hour. Both definitions lead to the same result since they differ by a constant
factor: the demand, α. If we now assume that headways are constant but the schedule is not
advertised, we have:
T = FmT(x,α) = 1/x [hrs] (out of vehicle delay assumes ½ headway at origin and ½ headway
at the destination)
And finally, if each vehicle trip consumes ce joules of energy we also have:
E = ce x/α [joules/pax]
1-4
Public Transportation Systems: Planning—General Ideas
If the political process had ignored energy and simply yielded a standard T0 for T, and if we choose
the monetary units so cf = 1, the MP would then be:
Note that the OF is minimized by the smallest x possible. Thus, the constraint must be binding,
and we have:
x* = 1/T0
$* ≡ Gm$(α) = 1/(αT0)
There is another approach, which we call the “Lagrangian approach.” It involves choosing some
shadow prices, β, and minimizing a generalized cost with these “prices” without any constraints.
Although the selection of prices cannot be made objectively, one can always find prices that will
meet a set of standards (see your CE 252 notes). So the Lagrangian approach is equivalent to the
standards approach. For example, we can formulate:
x* = αβ
You can verify that the “standards” solution (x* = 1/T0 and $* = x*/α = 1/(αT0) is achieved for
β = (1 / T02 )(1 / α ) . So no matter what standard you choose, there is a price that achieves it.
In summary, there are 2 approaches to obtain low cost designs that satisfy policy aims:
This minimizes the dollar cost subject to policy constraints, e.g. for trip time, energy
consumption and possibly other outputs. Usually, as shown in the example, constraints
become binding when solved → T = T0, E = E0
1-5
Public Transportation Systems: Planning—General Ideas
This minimizes the generalized cost, and gives the same solution as the standards method
when suitable shadow prices, βT and βE, are chosen. The shadow prices can be found by
solving the Lagrangian problem for some prices, finding the optimum T and E and then
adjusting the prices until T and E meet the standards. In simple cases, such as the above
example, this can be done analytically in closed form.
How to Account for Demand: Some Comments about Demand Uncertainty and Endogeneity
So far, we have assumed that the demand, α, is given, and critics could say that this is not realistic.
However, if we are lucky and the design one provides happens to be optimum for the demand that
materializes, then the issue is moot. Suppose we design x for a chosen level of demand, α, that is
expected to materialize at some point in the future. Normally, we expect realized demand to
change with time, and for a well-designed system that provides improved service this demand
should be increasing. Then, the question of whether the system design is optimal in reality (given
that we assumed a demand α0) is less a question of if, but of when, since the demand α0 will
eventually be realized. Furthermore, we will learn later in the course that the cost associated with
a design, x*, that is optimal for α0 is also near-optimal for a broad range of values of α (within a
factor of 2 of α0). Thus, if the realized demand does not change quickly with time, the system
design is likely to produce near optimal costs for a long period of time.
Furthermore, we should remember that demand is difficult to predict in the long run. So, building
complicated models that endogenize α in order to predict precise values is not a worthwhile
activity in my opinion. Rough estimates of future demand are sufficient for design purposes. This
is not to say that a vision for the future is not important; only that it does not need to be anticipated
precisely. The following example illustrates what happens if one ignores the vision.
This example shows that when demand changes with time, then incrementally chasing optimality
with short-term gain objectives in mind can lead us to a much worse state than if we design from
the start with foresight and long term objectives.
Now, consider the investment decisions for a system with potential for 2 modes:
Politicians, who make decisions about how much money to invest in transportation infrastructure,
tend to focus on short-run returns because of the relatively short political cycle. If elections for
city leaders occur every couple of years, then politicians have incentives to look at costs only in
the near future. This can be “tragic.”
Suppose that demand for transportation in a city is growing over time and is expected to continue
growing long into the future (this tends to be the case in nearly all cities around the developing
1-6
Public Transportation Systems: Planning—General Ideas
world). Suppose too that the goal is supplying (at all times) enough capacity to meet demand. The
politicians must decide whether to invest a large amount of money, c0, in digging tunnels and
laying track for a subway that will have enormous capacity to handle demand for decades into the
future or to incrementally expand road infrastructure to handle the demand αi expected over the
next political cycle, i. This would cost ci = cgαi monetary units and will be the decision made if ci
< c0 (assuming cost is the main political issue.) The result of this “periodic review” decision
making is shown by this figure:
$
periodic review based on
political cycles $auto(t)
$subway(t)
c0
ci = cgαi
now t’
t
If the decision rule for investing in infrastructure is to chose the lowest cost over the next political
cycle and demand increases gradually, “automobile” will always win because with gradual
increases in demand: ci < c0. In the long run, however, the cost of investment in automobile
infrastructure is unbounded. Had decisions been made with a view to the long run
(t > t’), the subway (i.e. the less costly investment) would have been chosen.
Another point pertaining to “the future demand vision” is that systems often create their own
demand; and this should be recognized (even exploited) when developing design targets. Planning
actions that have long-term consequences should be made with a long-term horizon and long term
vision.
Comparative Analyses – This is planning by looking at what similar cities have done and trying to
copy it. Although this is useful, “safe” and often done, it can exclude opportunities to come up
with innovative solutions that may only be appropriate for the case of concern. (We will not do
this in this course; we will instead create designs from scratch, systematically.)
1-7
Another Random Scribd Document
with Unrelated Content
Chapter Seventeen.
The House of the Wicked.
“Oh yes, I have. Every woman knows the exact worth of her
good looks.”
Her face was pale, her lips were dry, and she panted as she
spoke.
But they had gained the gate of the villa where they were to
call, and pushing it open he held it back with a low bow for
her to pass. Her grey eyes, so full of grief and despair, met
his for an instant, and she saw he was inexorable. Then she
passed in up to the door, and a few minutes later found
herself in the salon chatting with her voluble hostess, while
Zertho sat with Madame’s two smart daughters, both true
Parisiennes in manner, dress, and speech.
Yet when she had entered she had sparkled with fun and
vivacity, and it was only the mention of marriage which had
disarmed her.
“Yes, very well. The château is a fine old place perched high
up, overlooking a beautiful fertile valley,” her hostess
replied. “I once went there a few years ago, when the old
Prince was alive, and I well remember being charmed by
the romantic quaintness of its interior. Inside, one is back
three centuries; with oak panelling, old oak furniture, great
old-fashioned fireplaces with cosy corners, and narrow
windows, through which long ago archers shed their flights
of arrows. There is a dungeon, too; and a dark gloomy
prison-chamber in one of the round turrets. It is altogether
a most delightful old place.”
“We saw you at Monte Carlo last night,” one of the girls
exclaimed, suddenly, addressing Zertho.
“We were quite close to you,” observed her sister, “You were
sitting with Captain Brooker, and were having quite a run of
good fortune when, suddenly, you both jumped up and
disappeared like magic. We tried to attract your attention,
but you would not glance in our direction. Before we could
get round to you you had gone. Why did you leave so
quickly?”
“So your old friend Mariette has seen you!” she exclaimed,
as soon as they had walked twenty paces from the house.
“Very well,” she answered, with a weary sigh. She did not
tell him that she had already ascertained from George
Stratfield that “The Golden Hand” had been to Nice.
“We must leave for Paris,” he said briefly. “It will not be wise
to run too great a risk. If she chooses she can make things
extremely unpleasant.”
“For you?”
Liane said nothing. She had not failed to notice his anxiety
when Mademoiselle Bertholet had explained how Mariette
had watched him, and she wondered whether, after all, he
feared this remarkable woman who had played such a
prominent part in their past lives; this notorious gambler
who was her bitterest foe.
She bit her lip, but made no answer. Her eyes were filled
with tears. Without any further words they drove rapidly
along the Promenade, at that hour chill after the fading of
the sun, until the cab with its jingling bells pulled up before
the Pension, and Liane alighted. For an instant she turned
to him, bowing, then entered the villa.
Her father was out, and on going into her own room she
locked the door, cast down her sunshade, tossed her hat
carelessly aside, and pushing her hair from her fevered
brow with both hands, stood at the open window gazing
aimlessly out upon the sea. A sense of utter loneliness crept
over her forlorn heart. She was, she told herself, entirely
friendless, now that her father desired her to marry Zertho.
Hers had been at best a cheerless, melancholy life, yet it
was now without either hope, happiness, or love. The sea
stretching before her was like her own future, impenetrable,
a great grey expanse, dismal and limitless, without a single
gleam of brightness, growing every instant darker, more
obscure, more mysterious.
She sank beside her bed, and burying her face in the white
coverlet gave way to her emotion, shedding a torrent of
tears.
“Then you will not marry her?” she cried eagerly. “Do not,
for my sake. If you knew all you would rather cast the
money into yonder sea than become her husband.”
She was trembling, her breast rose and fell with the
exertion of the steep ascent, and her face was blanched and
haggard. Her attitude, whenever he referred to Zertho,
always mystified and puzzled him. Had she not spoken
vaguely of some strange crime?
Yet he loved her with all the strength of his being, and the
sight of her terrible anxiety and dread pained him beyond
measure. He was ready and willing to do anything to assist
and liberate her from the mysterious thraldom, nevertheless
she preserved a silence dogged and complete. He strove to
discern a way out of the complicated situation, but could
discover none.
“It is the name she has earned at the tables because of her
extraordinary good fortune,” Liane answered. “Her winnings
at trente-et-quarante are said to have been greater perhaps
than any other player during the past few years.”
She read the name of the villa upon the marble tablet, and
for a moment hesitated and held back, fearing to meet face
to face the woman she held in fear. But George had already
entered the gateway and ascended the steps, and she felt
impelled to follow, a few moments later taking a seat in the
cool handsome salon where the flowers diffused a sweet
subtle perfume, and the light was softly tempered by the
closed sun-shutters.
Liane and her lover sat facing each other, the silence being
complete save for the swish of the sea as it broke ever and
anon upon the brown rocks deep below. A moment later,
however, there was a sound of the opening and shutting of
doors, and with a frou-frou of silk there entered “The
Golden Hand.”
She wore an elegant dress of pale mauve trimmed with
velvet, and as she came forward into the room a smile of
welcome played upon her lips, but George thought she
looked older and more haggard than when he had visited
her only two days before.
Liane faced her, her countenance pale, her lips parted. She
had held back in fear when this woman had entered, but
the calm expression and pleasant smile had now entirely
disarmed her suspicions. Yet she feared lest this woman
whom she had known in the old days, should divulge the
secret she had kept from her lover. George, the man she
adored, was, she knew, fast slipping away from her. On the
one hand she was forced to marry Zertho, while on the
other this very woman, whom she feared, was to be bribed
to accept her lover as husband. Liane looked into her face
and tried to read her thoughts. But her countenance had
grown cold and mysterious.
Liane did not answer; her lover sat rigid and silent.
“Yes,” Liane said, “I knew you well when I went daily to the
Casino, and have often envied you, for while my father lost
and lost you invariably won and crammed handsful of notes
into your capacious purse. At first I envied you, but soon I
grew to hate you.”
“I hated you because I knew that you loved only gold. I had
seen sufficient of you to know that you had no higher
thought than of the chances of the red or the black. You had
been aptly nicknamed ‘The Golden Hand.’”
“And I, too, envied you,” the other said. “I envied you your
grace and your beauty; yet often I felt sorry for you. You
seemed so jaded and world-weary, although so young, that
it was a matter of surprise that they gave you your carte at
the Bureau.”
“Only because you are beneath the thrall of one who holds
you in his power,” Mariette answered. “You love each other
so fervently that I could never be your rival, even if you
were free.”
“Ah!” she said slowly at length, “I know how fondly you love
each other. I have myself experienced the same grief, the
same bitterness as that which is rending your hearts at this
moment, even though I am believed to be devoid of every
passion, of every sentiment, and of every womanly feeling.”
She hung her head, sinking back rigidly into her chair with
lips compressed. George stood watching her, like a man in a
dream. He saw her crushed and hopeless beneath the
terrible load upon her conscience, held speechless by some
all-consuming terror, trembling like an aspen because she
knew this woman intended to divulge her secret.
With all his soul he loved her, yet in those painful moments
the gulf seemed to widen between them. Her white haggard
face told him of the torture that racked her mind.
“No, no!” she cried wildly, struggling to her feet. “No, let me
leave before she tells you. I knew instinctively that, after
all, she was not my friend.”
She shook her head, holding her breath the while, and
glaring at him with eyes full of abject fear.
“Why?”
“Ah! don’t ask me, George,” she murmured, with her chin
sunk upon the lace on her breast. “I am the most wretched
woman on earth, because I have wilfully deceived you. I
had no right to love you; no right to let you believe that I
was pure and good; no right to allow you to place faith in
me. You will hate me when you know all.”
At that instant the door of the room was opened, and two
persons entered unannounced. George and Liane were
standing together in the centre of the saloon, while Mariette
was still seated with her back to the door, so that the new
comers did not at first notice her presence.
“We have followed you here with your lover,” exclaimed the
Prince angrily, addressing Liane. “We saw you driving to the
station together, and watched you. We—”
“No,” the latter said. “Now that you have chosen to call here
uninvited it is at least polite to remain at the invitation of
your hostess.”
“No, I—I cannot,” she protested, covering her face with her
hands.
The slim, fair-faced girl stood with bent head, panting and
irresolute, while all waited for the words to fall from her dry,
white lips. At last, with eyes downcast, she summoned
courage, and in a low, hoarse voice said,—
The man indicated, still standing with his back to the door,
smiled triumphantly at Zertho, then said,—
His voice was broken with emotion, and although his lips
moved, he could utter no further words.
“You are silent,” he went on. “Then I will tell you. You were
shrewd enough to see that while I held my tongue you
would still hold Captain Brooker in your power, and through
the pressure you could place upon him, secure Liane as
your wife. I knew this all along, although you believed me
to be entirely ignorant of it. Still I allowed you to pay me,
and I can assure you that the money you gave me with
such bad grace often came in very useful,” he laughed. “I
am not a Prince, and although I may be an adventurer, I
thank Heaven I’m not an assassin.”
“I paid you all you demanded, every penny, yet now you
turn upon me. It is the way of all blackmailers,” Zertho
cried, still livid with anger.
“I speak the truth in order to save from your merciless
clutches one woman whose fair name has never been
besmirched. I speak for Liane’s sake.”
ebookbell.com