Y12 Stats Revision Pack - Mark Scheme

Qu 1 Scheme Marks AO
(a) c 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 B1 1.2
P(C = c) 1
9
1
9
1
9
1
9
1
9
1
9
1
9
1
9
1
9
B1ft 1.2
(2)
(b) P(C < 4) = 4
9 (accept 0.444 or better) B1 3.4
(1)
(c) Probability lower than expected suggests model is not good B1ft 3.5a
(1)
(d) e.g. Cloud cover will vary from month to month and place to place B1 3.5c
So e.g. use a non-uniform distribution (1)
( 5 marks)
Notes
(a) 1st B1 for a correct set of values for c. Allow  18 , 82 ,... 88
2nd B1ft for correct probs from their values for c, consistent with discrete uniform distrib’n
Maybe as a prob. function. Allow P(X = x ) = 19 for 0 x 8 provided x = {0, 1, 2, …, 8} is
clearly defined somewhere.

(b) B1 for using correct model to get 94 (o.e.)

SC Sample space {1, …, 8} If scored B0B1 in (a) for this allow P(C < 4) = 3
8 to score B1 in (b)

(c) B1ft for comment that states that the model proposed is or is not a good one based on
their model in part (a) and their probability in (b)
|(b) – 0.315| > 0.05 Allow e.g. “it is not suitable”; “it is not accurate” etc
|(b) – 0.315| 0.05 Allow a comment that suggests it is suitable
No prob in (b) Allow a comparison that mentions 50% or 0.5 and rejects the model
No prob in (b) and no 50% or 0.5 or (b) > 1 scores B0
Ignore any comments about location or weather patterns.

(d) B1 for a sensible refinement considering variations in month or location

Just saying “not uniform” is B0
Context & “non-uniform” Allow mention of different locations, months and non-uniform
or use more locations to form a new distribution with probabilities based on frequencies
Context & “binomial” Allow mention of different locations, months and binomial
Just refined model Model must be outlined and discrete and non-uniform
e.g. higher probabilities for more cloud cover or lower probabilities for less cloud cover
Continuous model Any model that is based on a continuous distribution. e.g. normal is B0

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Y12 Stats Revision Pack - Mark Scheme

Qu 2 Scheme Marks AO
(a) t will be the explanatory variable since sales are likely to depend on the
B1 2.4
temperature
(1)
(b) Every degree rise in temperature leads to a drop in weekly earnings of £171 B1 3.4
(1)
( 2 marks)
Notes

(a) B1 For identifying t and giving a suitable reason.

Need idea that “w depends on t” or “w responds to t” or “t affects w” (o.e.)
Allow t (temperature) affects the other variable etc
Just saying “ t is the independent variable” or “t explains change in w” is B0
N. B. Suggesting causation is B0 e.g. “t causes w to decrease”

(b) B1 for a description that conveys the idea of rate per degree Celsius.
Must have 171, condone missing “£” sign.

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Y12 Stats Revision Pack - Mark Scheme

Qu 3 Scheme Marks AO
(a) The probability of a dart hitting the target is constant (from child to child and B1 1.2
for each throw by each child) (o.e.)
The throws of each of the darts are independent (o.e.) B1 1.2
(2)
(b) [P(H 4) = 1 – P(H 3) = 1 – 0.9872 = 0.012795.. =] awrt 0.0128 B1 1.1b
(1)
(c) P(F = 5) = 0.9  0.1 , = 0.06561
4
M1, 3.4
= awrt 0.0656 A1 1.1b
(2)
(d) n 1 2 … 10
M1 3.1b
P(F = n) 0.01 0.01 +  … 0.01+9
10
Sum of probs = 1   2  0.01 + 9  = 1 3.1a
M1A1
2 1.1b
[i.e. 5(0.02 + 9) = 1 or 0.1 + 45 = 1] so  = 0.02 A1 1.1b
(4)
(e) P(F = 5| Thomas’ model) = 0.09 B1ft 3.4
(1)
(f) Peta’s model assumes the probability of hitting target is constant (o.e.)
B1 3.5a
and Thomas’ model assumes this probability increases with each attempt(o.e.)
(1)
(11 marks)
Notes
st
(a) 1 B1 for stating that the probability (or possibility or chance) is constant (or fixed or same)
2nd B1 for stating that throws are independent [“trials” are independent is B0]

(b) B1 for awrt 0.0128 (found on calculator)

(c) M1 for a probability expression of the form (1 − p)4  p where 0 < p < 1
A1 for awrt 0.0656
SC Allow M1A0 for answer only of 0.066

(d) 1st M1 for setting up the distribution of F with at least 3 correct values of n and P(F = n) in
terms of  . (Can be implied by 2nd M1 or 1st A1)
nd
2 M1 for use of sum of probs = 1 and clear summation or use of arithmetic series formula
(allow 1 error or missing term). (Can be implied by 1st A1)
1 A1 for a correct equation for 
st

2nd A1 for  = 0.02 (must be exact and come from correct working)

(e) B1ft for value resulting from 0.01 + 4  "their " (provided  and the answer are probs)
Beware If their answer is the same as their (c) (or a rounded version of their (c)) score B0

(f) B1 for a suitable comment about the probability of hitting the target
ALT Allow idea that Peta’s model suggests the dart may never hit the target but Thomas’ says that
it will hit at least once (in the first 10 throws).

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Y12 Stats Revision Pack - Mark Scheme

Qu 4 Scheme Marks AO
(a) Convenience or opportunity [sampling] B1 1.2
(1)
(b) Quota [sampling] B1 1.1a
e.g. Take 4 people every 10 minutes B1 1.1b
(2)
(c) Census B1 1.2
(1)
(d) [ 58 – 26 =] 32 (min) B1 1.1b
(1)
(e) 4133
= = 43.505263… awrt 43.5 (min) B1 1.1b
95
202 294
x = −  2 = 236.7026... M1 1.1b
95
= 15.385… awrt 15.4 (min) A1 1.1b
(3)
(f) There are outliers in the data (or data is skew) which will affect mean and sd B1 2.4
Therefore use median and IQR dB1 2.4
(2)
(g) Value of 20, LQ at 26 and outliers will not change
B1 1.1b
or state that median and upper quartile are the values that do change
More values now below 40 than above so Q2 or Q3 will change and be lower M1 2.1
Both Q2 and Q3 will be lower A1 2.4
(3)
(13 marks)
Notes
(b) 1st B1 for quota (sampling) mentioned (“Stratified” or “systematic” or “random” are B0B0)
2nd B1 for a description of how such a system might work, requires suitable strata or categories
e.g. time slots, departments, gender, age groups, distance travelled etc
Suggestion of randomness is B0
(e) B1 for a correct mean (awrt 43.5)
M1 for a correct expression for the sd (including )ft their mean
A1 for awrt 15.4 (Allow s = 15.4667… awrt 15.5)
(f) 1st B1 for acknowledging outliers or skewness are a problem for mean and sd
“extreme values”/”anomalies” OK May be implied by saying median and IQR not affected by..
We need to see mention of “outliers”, “skewness” and the problem so “data is skewed so use
median and IQR” is B0 unless mention that they are not affected by extreme values or mean and
standard deviation can be “inflated” by the positive skew etc
2nd dB1 dep on 1st B1 for therefore choosing median and IQR
(g) B1 for identifying 2 of these 3 groups of unchanged values or stating only Q2 and Q3 change
M1 for explaining that median or UQ should be lower.
E.g. the 2 values have moved to below 40 (or 58) and therefore more than 50% below 40 or
(more than 75% below 58) or an argument to show that the other 3 values are the same. (o.e.)
Allow arrows on box plot provided statement in words about increased % below 40 or 58 etc
A1 for stating median and UQ are both lower with clear evidence of M1 scored

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Y12 Stats Revision Pack - Mark Scheme

[If lots of values on 40 then median might not change but, since two values do change then UQ
would change. If this meant that 92 became an outlier then we would have a new value for upper
whisker and an extra outlier so effectively 3 values are altered. So median changes]
Question Scheme Marks AOs

5(a) 2
3
G B1
4
G 1.1b
5
1
9 G 3 R dB1
10 1.1b
1
5 R
1
10 R (2)
(b) 9 4 2
  M1 1.1b
10 5 3
12 (= 0.48)
= A1 1.1b
25
(2)
(c) 9 1 9 4 1
 +   or  1 9 4 2
1−  +    M1 3.1b
10 5 10 5 3  10 10 5 3 
21 (= 0.42)
= A1 1.1b
50
(2)
(d)
[P(Red from B|Red selected) ] =  15
9  9 
=
10 50
 M1 3.1b
10 +  + 109  54  13
1 9 1 13
10 5  25 
9
= A1 1.1b
26
(2)
(8 marks)
Notes

Allow decimals or percentages throughout this question.

B1: for correct shape (3 pairs) and at least one label on at least two pairs
G(reen) and R(ed)
allow G and G’ or R and R’ as labels, etc.
(a)
condone ‘extra’ pairs if they are labelled with a probability of 0
dB1: (dep on previous B1) all correct i.e. for all 6 correct probabilities on the
correct branches with at least one label on each pair
M1: Multiplication of 3 correct probabilities (allow ft from their tree diagram)
(b) A1: 12 oe
25
M1: Either addition of only two correct products (product of two probs +
product of three probs) which may ft from their tree diagram
(c) or for 1 − (' 101 '+ '(b) ')
A1: 21 oe
50
M1: Correct ratio of probabilities
or correct ft ratio of probabilities e.g. ' 10 ' ' 5 ' or ' 10 ' ' 5 ' with num < den
9 1 9 1

(d) 1 − '(b) ' ' 101 '+ '(c) '

A1: 9 (allow awrt 0.346)
26

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Y12 Stats Revision Pack - Mark Scheme

Question Scheme Marks AOs

6(a) IQR = 26.6 – 19.4 [= 7.2] B1 2.1

19.4 – 1.5 × ‘7.2’ [= 8.6] or 26.6 + 1.5 × ‘7.2’ [= 37.4] M1 1.1b

Plotting one upper whisker to 32.5 and

A1 1.1b
one lower whisker to 8.6 or 9.1

Plotting 7.6 and 8.1 as the only two outliers A1 1.1b

(4)

(b) October (since it is the month with the coldest temperatures

B1 2.4
between May and October in Beijing)

(1)

(c) 4952.906 or e.g. [ =] Sxx = 5.188... [=5.19*]

[ =] B1cso* 1.1b
184 n

(1)

(6 marks)
Notes
B1: for a correct calculation for the IQR (implied by 10.8 or 8.6 or 37.4 seen)

M1: for a complete method for either lower outlier limit or upper outlier limit

(allow ft on their IQR) (may be implied by the 1st A1 or a lower whisker at 8.6)
(a)
A1: both whiskers plotted correctly (allow ½ square tolerance)

A1: only two outliers plotted, 7.6 and 8.1 (must be disconnected from whisker)

NOTE: A fully correct box plot with no incorrect working scores 4/4

B1cso*: Correct expression with square root or correct formula and 5.188 or better
(c)
x = awrt 98720 and  = 98715.9... −  4153.6 
2
Allow a complete correct method finding 2
 
184  184 

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Y12 Stats Revision Pack - Mark Scheme

Question Scheme Marks AOs

7 (a) 132
= 0.71739... awrt 0.717 B1 1.1b
184
(1)
(b)(i) P( X  6) = 1 − P( X  5) or P([ X =]6) + P([ X =]7) + P([ X =]8) M1 3.4
= 1 − 0.296722... awrt 0.703 A1 1.1b
(2)
(b)(ii) 184 × P( X = 7) [ = 184 × 0.2811…] M1 1.1b
= 51.7385... awrt 51.7 A1 1.1b
(2)
(c) Part (a) and part (b)(i) are similar and the expected number of 7s
(51.7 or 0.281) matches with the number of 7s found in the data B1ft 3.5a
set (52 or 0.283) so Magali’s model is supported.
(1)
(d) 23
= 0.82142... awrt 0.821 B1 1.1b
28
(1)
(e) Any one of…
• Part (d)/‘0.821’ differs from part (a)/(b)(i)/(0.7…)
• there is a greater/different probability of high
B1 2.4
cloud cover/more likely to have high cloud cover
if the previous day had high cloud cover
• independence(o.e.) does not hold
…therefore Magali’s (binomial) model may not be suitable. dB1 3.5a

(2)
(9 marks)
Notes
Allow fractions, decimals or percentages throughout this question.
33
(a) Allow equivalent fraction, e.g. 46

M1: for writing or using 1 − P( X  5) or P( X = 6) + P( X = 7) + P( X = 8)

(b)(i)
A1: awrt 0.703 (correct answer scores 2 out of 2)
M1: for 184 × P( X = 7) o.e. e.g., 184 × [P( X  7) − P( X  6)]
(b)(ii)
A1: awrt 51.7
B1ft: comparing ‘0.717’ with ‘0.703’ and ’51.7 or ‘0.281’ with 52 or 0.283 and
concluding that Magali’s model is supported (must be comparing prob. with prob. and
(c)
days with days). Allow not supported or mixed conclusions if consistent with their f.t.
answers in (a) and (b)
B1: Any bullet point
dB1: (dep on previous B1) for Magali’s model may not be suitable (o.e.)
Condone not accurate for not suitable
(e)
SC: part (d) is similar to part (a)/(b)(i) and a compatible conclusion (i.e. Magali’s model
is supported) to score B1B1.

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Y12 Stats Revision Pack - Mark Scheme

Qu 8 Scheme Marks AO

(a) Negative B1 1.2

(1)

(b)(i) Rainfall Pressure B1 2.2b

or
(ii) mm hPa or Pascals or hectopascals or mb or millibars B1ft 1.1b

(2)

( 3 marks)

Notes

(a) B1 for stating negative. “Negative skew” is B0 though

(b)(i) B1 for mentioning “rainfall” (allow “rain” or “precipitation”) or “pressure”

(if more than 1 answer both must be correct)

NB the other quantitative variable for Perth is: Daily Mean Wind Speed and scores B0

[Not allowed “wind speed” since r = +0.15 and in winter might expect wind to raise temp]

(ii) B1ft for giving the correct units. If Daily Mean Wind Speed (kn) or knots

“Wind speed” and “knots” would score B0B1 but any other variable scores B0B0

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Y12 Stats Revision Pack - Mark Scheme

Qu 9 Scheme Marks AO

(a) [68 – 7 = ] 61 (only) B1 1.1b

(1)

(b) [25 – 14] = 11 B1 1.1b

(1)

(c)  607.5  B1 1.1b

  or x = 27 =  = 22.5
(1)

(d) 17 623.25 M1 1.1b

= − "22.5"2 or 146.4629...
27
= 12.10218… awrt 12.1 A1 1.1b

(2)

(e)  + 3 = "22.5"+ 3  "12.1..." = awrt 59 so only one outlier B1ft 1.1b

(1)

(f) Median increases implies that both values must be > 20 M1 3.1b

Mean is the same means that a + b = 45 M1 1.1b

So possible values are: e.g. b = 21 and a = 24 (o.e.) A1 2.2b

(3)

(g) Both values will be less than 1 standard deviation from the mean and so the B1 2.4
standard deviation of all 29 values will be smaller
(1)

( 10 marks)

Notes

(a) B1 for correctly interpreting the box plot to find the range (more than 1 answer is B0)

(b) B1 for correct understanding of IQR and answer of 11

(c) B1 for 22.5 only (or exact equivalent such as 45

2 ). Allow 22 mins and 30 secs.

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Y12 Stats Revision Pack - Mark Scheme

(d) M1 for a correct expression including square root. Allow 146 or better. Ft their mean
A1 for awrt 12.1 NB Allow use of s = 12.3327… or awrt 12.3

(e) B1ft for a correct calculation or value based on their  and  and compatible conclusion

(f) 1st M1 Correct start to the problem and a correct statement about the values based on median
Allow if their final two values are both >20
nd
2 M1 for a correct explanation leading to equation a + b = 45 (o.e. e.g. equidistant from mean)
Allow if their final two values sum to 45
A1 for a correct pair of values (both > 20 with a sum of 45) and at least some attempt to
explain how their values satisfy at least one of the conditions (both > 20 or a + b = 45).
Ignore a = or b = labels
NB The values for a and b do not need to be integers.

(g) B1 for a correct explanation.

Must mention that both values are less than 1 sd (ft their answer to (d)) from the mean

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Y12 Stats Revision Pack - Mark Scheme

Qu 10 Scheme Marks AO
(a) k k k k k 1
+ + + + = 1 or ( 60k + 30k + 20k + 15k + 12k ) = 1 M1 1.1b
10 20 30 40 50 600
600
So k = (*) A1cso 1.1b
137
(2)
(b) (Cases are:) D1 = 30, D2 = 50 and D1 = 50, D2 = 30 and D1 = 40, D2 = 40 M1 2.1
2
k k  k 
P ( D1 + D2 = 80 ) =  2 +   M1 3.4
50 30  40 
= 0.0375619… awrt 0.0376 A1 1.1b
(3)
( 5 marks)
Notes
(a) M1 for clear use of sum of probabilities = 1 (all terms seen)
A1 cso (*) M1 scored and no incorrect working seen.
Verify (Assume k = 137
600
) to score the final A1 they must have a final comment “ k = 600
137 "

(b) 1st M1 for selecting at least 2 of the relevant cases (may be implied by their correct probs)
e.g. allow 30, 50 and 50,30 i.e. D1 and D2 labels not required
2nd M1 for using the model to obtain a correct expression for two different probabilities.
May use letter k or their value for k.
k k  k 
2
 k k  k  
2

Allow for  +   or 2    +   
50 30  40   50 30  40  

705
A1 for awrt 0.0376 (exact fraction is 18769 )

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Y12 Stats Revision Pack - Mark Scheme

Qu 11 Scheme Marks AO
(a) Disadvantage: e.g. Not random; cannot use (reliably) for inferences B1 1.1b
(1)
(b) [Sight or correct use of] X ~B(36, 0.08) M1 3.3
(i) P(X = 4) = 0.167387… awrt 0.167 A1 1.1b
(ii)  P( X 7) = 1 − P( X 6) = 0.022233… awrt 0.0222 A1 1.1b
(3)
(c) 4 1.1b
P(In dance club and dance tango) = 0.4  0.08 = 0.032 or or 3.2% B1
125
(1)
(d) [Let T = those who can dance the Tango. Sight or use of]
M1 3.3
T ~B(50, “0.032”)
[P(T < 3 ) = P(T 2) = ] 0.7850815… awrt 0.785 A1 1.1b
(2)
( 7 marks)
Notes
(a) B1 for a suitable disadvantage:
Allow (B1) Do NOT allow (B0)
Not random or less random (o.e.) Not representative
Cannot use (reliably) for inferences Less accurate
(More likely to be) biased Any comment based on time or cost
Any mention of skew
Any mention of non-response

(b) M1 for sight of B(36, 0.08) Allow in words: binomial with n = 36 and p = 0.08
may be implied by one correct answer to 2sf or sight of P( X 6) = 0.97776... i.e. awrt 0.98
Allow for 36C4  0.084  0.9232 as this is "correct use"
(i) 1st A1 for awrt 0.167 NB An answer of just awrt 0.167 scores M1(  )1st A1
(ii) 2nd A1 for awrt 0.0222

(c) B1 for 0.032 o.e. (Can allow for sight of 0.4  0.08 )

(d) M1 for sight of B(50, “0.032”) ft their answer to (c) provided it is a probability  0.08
may be implied by correct answer
or sight of [P(T 3)] = 0.924348…i.e. awrt 0.924 or P(T 2) as part of 1 – P(T 2) calc.
A1 for awrt 0.785
MR Allow MR of 50 (e.g. 30) provided clearly attempting P(T 2) and score M1A0

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Y12 Stats Revision Pack - Mark Scheme

Qu 12 Scheme Marks AO
(a) Hectopascal or hPa B1 1.2
(1)
(b) 214
x = y + 1010 or + 1010 M1 1.1b
30
= 1017.1333… awrt 1017 A1 1.1b
(2)
(c)  x =  y (or statement that standard deviation is not affected by this
M1 3.1b
type of coding)
5912
 y =  − ("7.13[33...]") or 146.1822...
2
M1 1.1b
30
= 12.0905… awrt 12.1 A1 1.1b
(3)
(d) High pressure (since approx. mean + sd ) so clockwise
B1
Locations are (from North to South): Leuchars, Heathrow, Hurn
2.4
Wind direction is direction wind blows from
So: Heathrow (NE) Hurn (E) Leuchars (W) B1 2.2a
(2)
( 8 marks)
Notes
FYI 1 hPa = 100 Pa; 10hPa = 1 kPa; 1Pa = 1 Nm-2

(a) B1 for “hectopascal” or hPa (condone pascals, allow millibars or mb) o.e.
Do NOT allow kPa or kilopascals or Pa on its own

(b) M1 for a strategy to find x

Allow an attempt to find  x that gets as far as  x =  y − 30 1010 [= 30 514]
A1 for awrt 1017 (accept 1020) [Ignore incorrect units]

(c) 1st M1 for an overall strategy using the fact  x =  y (can be implied by correct final ans)
or for  x = 30 514 and x 2
= 31 041192 (both seen and correct)
2nd M1 for a correct expression (with )(ft their y to 3sf) allow awrt 146 for 146.1822..
or for correct expression in x can ft their  x  30 000 or their answer to (b)
A1 (dep on 2nd M1) for awrt 12.1 [Ignore incorrect units]
Final
answer
Final ans of awrt 12.1 scores 3/3 but if they then adjust for x e.g. add 1010 (M0M1A1)

(d) 1st B1 for at least one of these reasons (these 2 lines) clearly stated (may see diagram)
Need “high pressure” and “clockwise” to score on 1st line
Contradictory statements B0 e.g. correct N~S list but say “anticlockwise”

2nd B1 (indep of 1st B1) for deducing the 3 correct directions either in the table or stated
as above
If the answers in table and text are different we take the table (as question says)

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Y12 Stats Revision Pack - Mark Scheme

Qu Scheme Marks AO
13
(a) 0.08 + 0.09 + 0.36 = 0.53 B1 1.1b
(1)
(b)(i) P ( G  E  S ) = 0  p = 0 B1 1.1b
(ii) [P(G) = 0.25  ] 0.08 + 0.05 + q + " p " = 0.25 M1 1.1b
q = 0.12 A1 1.1b
(3)
(c)(i)  5  r + " p" 5
 P ( S | E ) = 12  r + " p "+ 0.09 + 0.05 = 12
M1 3.1a
A1ft 1.1b
12r = 5r + 5  0.14  r = 0.10 A1 1.1b
(ii) 0.08 + 0.05 + "0.12"+ "0"+ 0.09 + "0.10"+ 0.36 + t = 1  t = 0.20 B1ft 1.1b
(4)

( 8 marks)
Notes
(a) B1 for 0.53 (or exact equivalent) [ Allow 53%]

(b)(i) B1 for p = 0 (may be placed in Venn diagram)

(ii) M1 for a linear equation for q (ft letter “p” or their value if 0 p 0.12 )  by p + q = 0.12
A1 for q = 0.12 (may be placed in Venn diagram)

(c)(i) M1 for a ratio of probabilities (r on num and den) (on LHS) with num < den and num or den
correct ft. Allow ft of letter “p” or their p where 0 p  0.86 but “+ 0” is not required.
1 A1ft for a correct ratio of probabilities (on LHS) allowing ft of their p where 0 p  0.86
st

2nd A1 for r = 0.1(0) or exact equivalent (may be in Venn diagram) Ans only 3/3
(ii) B1ft for t = 0.2(0) (o.e.) or correct ft i.e. 0.42 – (p + q + r) where p, q, r and t are all probs

14