CHAPTER 4

PROBABLITY THEORY
4.1 Definition of some probability terms
Probability: is a numerical measure of the chance or likelihood that a particular event will occur
& it lies in the range from 0-1, inclusive. Probability is a building block of inferential statistics.

Experiment:- Any process of observation or measurement or any process which generates well
defined outcome.
Random experiment: it is an experiment which can be repeated any number of times under the
same conditions, but does not give unique results. The result will be any one of several possible
outcomes, but for each trial, the result will not be known in advance. A Random experiment is
also called a trial & the outcomes are called events.
Sample space: - is the collection of all possible outcomes or sample points of a random
experiment.
Sample point: -Each element of sample space is called Sample point.
• Event: - is a subset of a sample space i.e. an event is a collection of sample points.
•Impossible event:- this is an event which will never occur.

Example In an experiment of tossing a coin three times, S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH,
THT, TTH, TTT}, each sample point is an equally likely out come. It is possible to define many
events on this sample space as follows:

A = {HHH} - the event of getting only head.

B = {HHH, HHT} - the event of getting head on the first two tosses.

C = {HHT, HTH, THH} - the event of getting exactly two heads.

D = the event of getting number 9 is an impossible event.

Example
Find the sample space rolling a fair die.
S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

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 Mutually exclusive event: - two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if there is no
sample point which is common to A and B. i.e. A ∩ B =
Independent event: two or more events are said to be independent if the occurrence or non-
occurrence of an event does not affect the occurrence or non-occurrence of the other.
Dependent Events: Two events are dependent if the first event affects the outcome or
occurrence of the second event in a way the probability is changed.
Equally likely outcomes: if each outcome in a sample space has the same chance to be occurred.
Example: Casting a fair die all possible outcomes are equally likely.
4.2 Probability of an event
Definition: Let E be an experiment. Let S be a sample space associated with E. With each event
A in S we associate a real number designated by P (A) and called the probability of A.
Generally probability can be divided into two
i) Subjective probability: - probability determined based on individual’s own judgment,
experience, information, belief, etc, is called Subjective probability.
ii) Objective probability: - the probability of an event in a certain experiment based
on experimental evidence.
Basic approaches to probability
There are three different conceptual approaches to the study of probability theory.
These are:
1. The classical approach.
2. The frequentist approach.
3. The axiomatic approach.
1. Classical approach:
Definition: If there are n equally likely outcomes of an experiment, and out of the n outcomes
event A occur only k times, the probability of the event A is denoted by P (A) is defined as

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p(A) = = =

Note: Classical approach of measuring probability fails to answer for the following conditions:
• If total number of outcomes is infinite or if it is not possible to enumerate all elements of
the sample space.
• If each outcome is not equally likely
Example
Compute a/ the probability of having two boys & one girl is a three child family using the
classical method, assuming boys & girls are equally likely.

b/ using (a) compute the probability of having three boys in a three-child family.
c/ using (a) compute the probability of having three girls in a three –child family.
d/ using (a) compute the probability of having two girls & one boy in three child family.
Solution

The sample space S or the experiment is S= {BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB, GBG,
GGB, GGG}
So n(S) = 8.
a/ For the event A= „ two boys & a girl‟ = {BBG,BGB,GBB} , we have n(A)=3, Since the
outcome are equally likely , the probability of A is P(A)= n(A)/n(S)=3/8 =0.375.

b/ Compute the probability of having three boys in a three-child family.

For the event B= „ three boys‟ = {BBB} , we have n(B)=1,Since the outcome are equally
likely , the probability of B is P(B)= n(B)/n(S)=1/8 .

c/ compute the probability of having three girls in a three –child family.

For the event C= „ three girls‟ = {GGG} , we have n(C)=1.Since the outcome are equally
likely , the probability of C is P(C)= n(C)/n(S)=1/8

d/ Compute the probability of having two girls & one boy in three child family.

For the event D= ''two girls & one boy'' = {BGG, GBG,GGB} , we have n(A)=3, Since the
outcome are equally likely , the probability of D is P(D) = n(D)/n(S) =3/8 =0.375.

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 0 10 10
2. The Frequent Approach (Empirical Probability): This approach to probability is based
on relative frequencies.
Definition: Suppose we do again and again a certain experiment n times and let A be an event of
the experiment and let k be the number of times that event A occurs. Therefore the
probability of the event A happening in the long run is given by:

P(A) = =

In other words given a frequency distribution, the probability of an event (A) being in a given
class is

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 P(A) =

Example The national center for health statistics reported that of every 539 deaths in recent
years, 24 resulted that from automobile accident, 182 from cancer, and 353 from other disease.
What is the probability that particular death is due to an automobile accident?
Solution:
P (automobile) = death due to automobile /total death =24/539 = 0.445.
The probability that particular death is due to an automobile accident is 0.445.
The axiomatic approach.
Let E be a random experiment and S be a sample space associated with E. With each event A a
real number called the probability of A satisfies the following properties called axioms of
probability or postulates of probability.
1.0 1
2. P(S) =1, S is the sure/certain event.
3. If A1 and A2 are mutually exclusive events, the probability that one or the other occur equals
the sum of the two probabilities. i. e. P(A1 A2)=P(A1)+P(A2)

Similarly P(A1 A2 . . . An) = P(A1)+P(A2) +. . . P(An) =

4. P (A') =1-P (A)
5. P (ø) =0, ø is the impossible event.
4.3 Some rules of probability
1. Conditional probability
Definition: Let A and B be two events. The conditional probability of A given that event B has
occurred and denoted by is defined as

, provided that P (B)>0.

Similarly, , P (A) > 0.

Remark: For a given event B, for which P (B) > 0, the conditional probability P (A|B) is a
legitimate probability law since it satisfies the axiom probability i.e.
I) for every .
II) .
III) If A1 and A2 are mutually exclusive events then .
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IV) If A1 ,A2,… is a sequence of mutually exclusive events in S then
, i.e. for
Example : If the probability that a project will be well planned is 0.6 and that the probability that
it will be well planned and well executed is 0.54, then what is the probability that.
a) It will be well executed given that it is well planned?
b) It will not be well executed given that it is well planned?
Solution: Let A = the event that the project will be well planned.
B = the event that the project will be well executed.
P (A) = 0.6, P (A∩B) = 0.54 are given
(All well planned may not well executed)
a) P =well executed given that well planned?

....................................Using definition of conditional

probability.

b) = …................................................Using definition of conditional

probability.
= 1– …
Example : To study the proportion of smokers by sex from a population, a random sample of
200 people was taken. The following table shows the result.
Non-smokers(N) Smokers (S) Total
F 64 16 80
M 42 78 120
Total 106 94 200

Assuming that each person has a probability of of being included in the sample.
Estimate the following
I) The probability of getting a non-smoker given that the person selected is a female?
II) The probability of getting a smoker given that the person selected is male?
III) The probability of getting a male given that the person selected is smoker?
IV) The probability of getting a female given that the person selected is non smoker?

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 Solution: Let M = the event that the selected person is male.
F = the event that the selected person is female.
S = the event that the selected person is smoker.
N = the event that the selected person is non smoker.
I) =Getting non smoker from the selected person are females?

= .
II)

III) .

IV) .
2. Multiplication rule
Definition: Having two events A and B were P (A) > 0, and P (B)> 0, then
P (A∩B) = P (B) = P (A).
This is known as multiplication theorem for two events.
Generally: For two or more than two events say A1, A2……An , a sequence of n events and
assume that then

.
Example We draw consecutively 3 balls from a bowl with 5 white and 5 black balls without
putting them back. What is the probability that all balls will be black?
Solution: Let Ai be the event that the ith ball is black. We wish to find the probability of
A1A2A3, which by the Multiplication rule is
.

Example: Consider a lot consists of 20 defective and 80 non defective items. If we choose two
items at random without replacement, what is the probability that both items are defective?
Solution: Let A = the event that the first item is defective.
B = the event that the second item is defective.

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  We are asked to find P (A∩B) i.e. the occurrence at the first draw defective item and then at
the second draw also another defective item.

But
 P (B│A) = probability of getting defective at the second draw after drawing one defective
item at the first , hence we left with total of 99 items, 19 are defective.

, therefore

……. Using multiplication rule

Example: A lot contains 10 items of which 3 are defective. Three items are chosen at random
one after another without replacement. Find the probability that all the 3 are defective items?
Solution: Let A1 = the event that the 1st item is defective.
A2 = the event that the 2nd item is defective.
A3 = the event that the 3rd item is defective.
Required =?

 ……………… (From 3 defective and 7 non defective)

 ………………….(From two defective and 7 non defective)

...................................................................(From 1 defective and 7 non defective)

Therefore using multiplication rule

4.3 Counting rules

a. The addition rule
b. Permutation rule
c. Combination rule

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 Example: Suppose we are planning a trip to some place. If there are 3 bus routes & two trains‟
routs that we can take, then there are 3 + 2 = 5 different routes that we can take.
 Example: Suppose that a person has 2 different pairs of trousers and 3 shirts. In how many
ways can he wear his trousers and shirts?
 Solution: He can choose the trousers in n1  2 ways, and shirts in n2  3 ways. Therefore, he can wear
n1  n2  2  3  6 possible ways.
Permutation: An arrangement of objects with attention given to order of arrangement is called
permutation. The number of permutation of n different objects taken r at a time is obtained by
a) The number of permutations of n objects taken all together is n!
n!
i.e. n! = n*(n-1)*(n-2)*…*3*2*1 = n  n!   n!
Pn (n  n)! 0!
Note: By definition 0! = 1.
b) The arrangement of n distinct objects in a specific order using r objects at a time is called the
permutation of n objects taken r objects at a time. It is written as nPr and the formula is

Pr n!
 (n  r)! for r  0,1, 2,, n
n

c) The number of distinct permutation of n objects in which k1 are alike, k2 are alike,
kn are alike , etc is n! for n = n1 + n2 + n3 + …+ nk.
n1!.n2 !..nk
!

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Example: Find number of permutations of the letters in the word „„statistics‟‟.
Solution:

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 There are 3 s, 3t, 1a, 2i and 1c. i.e. , ,
Therefore, 10! = 50,400
3!.3!.1!.2!1!

.
Example: A photographer wants to arrange 3 persons in a row for photograph. How many
different types of photographs are possible?
Solution: Assume 3 persons Aster (A), lemma (L), Yared (Y) and n=3
Since n! =3! = 3*2! = 6, there are 6 possible arrangement ALY, AYL, LAY, LYA, YLA and
YAL.

Combination-A selection of objects considered without regard to order in which they occur is
called Combination. The number of combination of n different objects taking r of them at a time

is n Cr n n! r! , for r  0,1,2,, n .

 

 r  (n  r)!
Example: Given the letters A, B, C, and D list the permutation and combination for selecting
two letters.
Solution:
Permutation Combination
AB BA CA DA AB BC
AC BC CB DB AC BD
AD BD CD DC AD DC
Note: In permutation AB is different from BA but in combination AB is the same as BA.
Example: In a club containing 7 members a committee of 3 people is to be formed. In how many
ways can the committee be formed?

Solution: 7C3 = C n n! r!  7 C3  7   3!(77! 3)! = 35.

n r  
 
 r  (n  r)!  3
Examples: In how many ways a committee of 5 people be chosen out of 9 people?
n9 , r 5
n n! 9!
   126 ways
54!*5!
r (n r)!*r!
r! 5

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 CHAPTER FIVE PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
5.1 RANDOM VARIABLES
A variable whose values are determined by chance with associated probabilities is called a random
variable. In any experiment of chance, the outcomes occur randomly. For example, the total score when
a pair of dice is rolled, the number of heads when a coin is tossed several times, and so on are examples
of random variables (or stochastic variables). Random variables are usually denoted with capital letter X,
Y, Z etc., while the values taken by them are denoted by lower case letters x, y, z etc. Thus, P (x1  X 
x2) is the probability that the random variable X takes values between x1 and x2, both inclusive. A
random variable can be discrete or continuous.
5.1.1 Discrete Random Variable
If the random variable X can assume only a particular finite or countable set of values, it is said to be a
discrete random variable.
Example: Consider an experiment of "flipping a fair coin 3 times". List the elements of the sample
space that are assumed to be equally likely (as this is what is meant by a fair or balanced coin) and the
corresponding values x the number of heads observed.
Solution: If H stands for heads and T for tails, then the sample space corresponding to this experiments
is S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}.

Since X= the number of heads observed, the results are shown in the following table:

Element of sample space Probability X

HHH 1/8 3
HHT 1/8 2
HTH 1/8 2
HTT 1/8 1
THH 1/8 2
THT 1/8 1
TTH 1/8 1
TTT 1/8 0

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5.1.2 Discrete probability distribution
Discrete probability distribution is a distribution whose random variable is discrete. It describes a
finite set of possible occurrences, for discrete “count data.”
Example: Consider the possible outcomes for the random experiment of tossing three coins
together once.
Sample space, S = {HHH, THH, HTH, HHT, TTH, THT, HTT,TTT}
Let X be the number of heads that will turn up when three coins tossed. The possible values of X
are 0,1,2 and 3.
P(X = 0) = P(X (TTT)) = 1/8,
P(X=1) = P(X (HTT))+P(X (THT) )+ P(X (TTH) )=1/8+1/8+1/8 = 3/8
P(X=2) = P(X (HHT)) +P(X (HTH)) +P(X (THH)) = 1/8+1/8+1/8 = 3/8,
P(X=3) = P(X (HHH)) = 1/8.
X 0 1 2 3
P(X=x)

Common Discrete Probability

Distributions Binomial Distribution

The origin of binomial distribution is Bernoulli's trial. Bernoulli's trial is an experiment where
there are only two possible outcomes, “success" or "failure". In connection with this trial, a
success may be getting heads with a balanced coin; it may be passing an examination. Whenever
we face such experiment, we use binomial distribution under the assumptions stated below. Any
experiment can also be turned into a Bernoulli trial by defining one or more possible results
which we are interested as „„Success” and all other possible results as “Failure”. For instance,
while rolling a fair die, a "success" may be defined as "getting even numbers on top" and odd
numbers as "Failure". Generally, the sample space in a Bernoulli trial is S = {S, F}, S = Success,
F = failure.

Notation: Let probability of success and failure are p and q respectively.

P (success) = P(s) = p and P (failure) = P (f) = q, where q= 1- p.

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 Definition: Let X be the number of success in n repeated Binomial trials with probability of
success p on each trial, then the probabilities distribution of a discrete random variable X is
called binomial distribution. Let p = the probability of success & q= 1-p= the probability of
failure on any given trial. A binomial random variable with parameters n and p represents the
number of r successes in n independent trials, when each trial has p probability of success.
If X is a random variable, then for r= 0, 1, 2… n

, where q = 1 – p

Sometimes written as:

X ~ Bin(n, p)
Examples:
1. What is the probability of getting three heads by tossing a fair con four times?
Solution:
Let X be the number of heads in tossing a fair coin four times
X ~ Bin(n  4, p  0.50)

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14
 n
 P( X  x)   
p x x q n x , x  0,1,2,3,4.
 
 4
 P(4 X  3)    0.25
0.5 3
 
2. Suppose that an examination consists of six true and false questions, and assume that a
student has no knowledge of the subject matter. The probability that the student will
guess the correct answer to the first question is 30%. Likewise, the probability of
guessing each of the remaining questions correctly is also 30%.
a) What is the probability of getting more than three correct answers?
b) What is the probability of getting at least two correct answers?
c) What is the probability of getting at most three correct answers?
d) What is the probability of getting less than five correct answers?
Solution
Let X = the number of correct answers that the student gets.
X ~ Bin(n  6, p 
0.30) a)
P(  3)  ?
X
n
 P( X  x n x x  0,1,2,..6
 x)    q ,
p x
 
6 x
6 x
 x 0.3 0.7
 
 P( X  3)  P(  4)  P(  5)  P(  6)
X X X
 0.060  0.010 
0.001
 0.071 Thus, we may conclude that if 30% of
the exam questions are answered by guessing, the probability is 0.071 (or 7.1%) that more than
three of the questions are answered correctly by the student.
b)
P( X  2)  ?
P( X  2)  P(  2)  P(  3)  P(  4)  P(  5)  P(  6)
X X X X X
c)
P( X

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15
 0.324  0.185  0.58
 0.060  0.010
 0.001  3)  ?
P( X  3)  P(  0)  P(  1)  P(  2)  P(  3)
X X X X
 0.118  0.303  0.324  0.185
 0.93

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 d)
P(  5)  ?
X
P( X  5)  1 P(  5)
X
 1{P( X  5)  P(  6)}
X
 1 (0.010  0.001)
 0.989

Poisson distribution
A random variable X is said to have a Poisson distribution if its probability distribution is given
by:

P( X
 x)  x e  ,
x  0,1,2,......
 x!
Where   the averagenumber.

The Poisson distribution depends only on the average number of occurrences per unit time of
space. The Poisson distribution is used as a distribution of rare events, such as:

 Number of misprints.
 Natural disasters like earth quake.
 Accidents.
 Hereditary.
 Arrivals

Examples: If 1.6 accidents can be expected an intersection on any given day, what is the
probability that there will be 3 accidents on any given day?

Solution; Let X = the number of accidents,   1.6

X  poisson1.6
p X 1.6x e1.6
  x  x!
p X  3 1.6
3 1.6 e  0.1380

 3!

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Example: In a small city, 10 accidents took place in a time of 50 days. Find the probability that
there will be a) two accidents in a day.

There are 0.2 accidents per day.

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 Let X be the random variable, the number of accidents per day
X ～ poiss ( = 0.2), X = 0, 1, 2…

Continuous Probability
Distributions

5.2 Continuous Random Variable

A random variable X is said to be continuous if it can take all possible values (integral as well as
fractional) between certain limits. Continuous random variables occur when we deal with
quantities that are measured on a continuous scale. For instance, the life length of an electric
bulb, the speed of a car, weights, heights, and the like are continuous. In such cases, probabilities
are associated with intervals or regions of a continuous random variable, and not with individual
points.
Example: The height of an individual and the weight of an individual
5.2.1 Continuous probability distribution
Continuous probability distribution is a probability distribution whose random variable is continuous.
It describes an “unbroken” continuum of possible occurrences. Probability of a single value is zero and
probability of an interval is the area bounded by curve of probability density function and interval on
x-axis. Let a and b be any two values; a <b. The probability that X assumes a value that lies between a
and b is equal to the area under the curve a and b; that is P(a  X  b)

Normal Distribution
The Normal distribution, visually resembling a smooth, symmetrical, bell-shaped curve,
represents a commonly found pattern of randomly measured data. A random variable X is said to
have a normal distribution if its probability density function is given by
Note: To facilitate the use of normal distribution, the following distribution known as the
standard normal distribution was derived by using the transformation

X 
Z 

Example: A random variable X has a normal distribution with mean 80 and standard deviation
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19
4.8 What is the probability that it will take a value

 Less than 87.2

 Greater than 76.4
 Between 81.2 and 86.0

Solution
X is normal with mean,   80, standard deviation of 4.8
X  87.2  
P( X  87.2)  P( 
 )


 87.2  80
P(Z 
4.8 )
 1.5)
 P(Z
 0)  P(0   1.5)
 P(Z
Z
 0.50  0.4332  0.9332

P( X  76.4)
X    76.4  
P(   )

 P(Z  76.4  80
4.8 )
 P(Z  0.75)
 P(Z  0)  P(0   0.75)
Z
 0.50  0.2734  0.7734

P(81.2 
 81.2  X 86.0  
X  P(
 
  )
86.0)

 
81.2  80
 P(   86.0  80)
Z 4.8
4.8
 P(0.25  Z  1.25)
 P(0  Z  1.25)  P(0   1.25)
Z
 0.3934  0.0987  0.2957
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 1. A local insurance company has 200 employees. Their average annual salary is computed
to be $45,000, with a standard deviation of $5,000. A random sample of 100 employees
is selected; What is the probability that the average salary of the sample will be less than
$46 000?

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