ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS PROJECT WORK 2/2010

TITILE

: THEORY OF PROBABILITY

NAME : KYRIOS JOYCE ERDAYA RAJOO IC NO : 930603-10-5700 CLASS : 5 MULIA TEACHER : MRS.MALLIKA

a)

History of Probability

The scientific study of probability is a modern development. Gambling shows that there has been an interest in quantifying the ideas of probability for millennia, but exact mathematical descriptions of use in those problems only arose much later. According to Richard Jeffrey, "Before the middle of the seventeenth century, the term 'probable' (Latin probabilis) meant approvable, and was applied in that sense, univocally, to opinion and to action. A probable action or opinion was one such as sensible people would undertake or hold, in the circumstances. However, in legal contexts especially, 'probable' could also apply to propositions for which there was good evidence. Aside from some elementary considerations made by Girolamo Cardano in the 16th century, the doctrine of probabilities dates to the correspondence of Pierre de

Fermat and Blaise Pascal (1654). Christiaan Huygens (1657) gave the earliest known scientific treatment of the subject. Jakob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi (posthumous, 1713) and Abraham de Moivre's Doctrine of Chances (1718) treated the subject as a branch of mathematics. See Ian Hacking's The Emergence of Probability and James Franklin's The Science of Conjecture for histories of the early development of the very concept of mathematical probability. The theory of errors may be traced back to Roger Cotes's Opera Miscellanea (posthumous, 1722), but a memoir prepared by Thomas Simpson in 1755 (printed 1756) first applied the theory to the discussion of errors of observation. The reprint (1757) of this memoir lays down the axioms that positive and negative errors are equally probable, and that there are certain assignable limits within which all errors may be supposed to fall; continuous errors are discussed and a probability curve is given. Pierre-Simon Laplace (1774) made the first attempt to deduce a rule for the combination of observations from the principles of the theory of probabilities. He represented the law of probability of errors by a curve y = (x), x being any error and y its probability, and laid down three properties of this curve: it is symmetric as to the y-axis; 2. the x-axis is an asymptote, the probability of the error being 0; 3. the area enclosed is 1, it being certain that an error exists.
1.

He also gave (1781) a formula for the law of facility of error (a term due to Lagrange, 1774), but one which led to

unmanageable equations. Daniel Bernoulli (1778) introduced the principle of the maximum product of the probabilities of a system of concurrent errors.

b)

Application in life and importance

i) Weather forcasting
Suppose you want to go on a picnic this afternoon, and the weather report says that the chance of rain is 70%? Do you ever wonder where that 70% came from? Forecasts like these can be calculated by the people who work for the National Weather Service when they look at all

other days in their historical database that have the same weather characteristics (temperature, pressure, humidity, etc.) and determine that on 70% of similar days in the past, it rained. As we've seen, to find basic probability we divide the number of favorable outcomes by the total number of possible outcomes in our sample space. If we're looking for the chance it will rain, this will be the number of days in our database that it rained divided by the total number of similar days in our database. If our meteorologist has data for 100 days with similar weather conditions (the sample space and therefore the denominator of our fraction), and on 70 of these days it rained (a favorable outcome), the probability of rain on the next similar day is 70/100 or 70%. Since a 50% probability means that an event is as likely to occur as not, 70%, which is greater than 50%, means that it is more likely to rain than not. But what is the probability that it won't rain? Remember that because the favorable outcomes represent all the possible ways that an event can occur, the sum of the various probabilities must equal 1 or 100%, so 100% - 70% = 30%, and the probability that it won't rain is 30%.

Batting averages
Let's say your favorite baseball player is batting 300. What does this mean? A batting average involves calculating the probability of a player's getting a hit. The sample space is the total number of at-bats a player has had, not including walks. A hit is a favorable outcome. Thus if in 10 at-bats a player gets 3 hits, his or her batting average is 3/10 or 30%. For baseball

stats we multiply all the percentages by 10, so a 30% probability translates to a 300 batting average.This means that when a Major Leaguer with a batting average of 300 steps up to the plate, he has only a 30% chance of getting a hit - and since most batters hit below 300, you can see how hard it is to get a hit in the Major Leagues!

c) Theorical Probabilities and Empirical Probabilities (differences)

The term empirical means "based on observation or experiment." An empirical probability is generally, but not always, given with a number indicating the possible percent error (e.g. 80+/-3%). A theoretical probability, however, is one that is calculated based on theory, i.e., without running any experiments.

Empirical Probability of an event is an "estimate" that the event will happen based on how often the event occurs after collecting data or running an experiment (in a large number of trials). It is based specifically on direct observations or experiences.

Theoretical Probability of an event is the number of ways that the event can occur, divided by the total number of outcomes. It is finding the probability of events that come from a sample space of known equally likely outcomes.

Comparing Empirical and Theoretical Probabilities

Sharon and Sandra roll two dice 50 times and record their results in the accompanying chart. 1.) What is their empirical probability of rolling a 7? 2.) What is the theoretical probability of rolling a 7? 3.) How do the empirical and theoretical probabilities compare? Sum Of the rolls of two dice Solution: 1.) Empirical probability (experimental probability or observed probability) is 13/50 = 26%. 2.) Theoretical probability (based upon what is possible when working with two dice) = 6/36 = 1/6 = 16.7% (check out the table at the right of possible sums when rolling two dice). 3.) Sharon and Sandra rolled more 7's than would be expected theoretically.
3, 5, 5, 4, 6, 7, 7, 5, 9, 10, 12, 9, 6, 5, 7, 8, 7, 4, 11, 6, 8, 8, 10, 6, 7, 4, 4, 5, 7, 9, 9, 7, 8, 11, 6, 5, 4, 7, 7, 4, 3, 6, 7, 7, 7, 8, 6, 7, 8, 9

a ) Suppose you are palying the Monopoly game with two of your friends. To start the game, each player will have to toss the die once. The player who obtains the highest number will start the game. List all the possible outcomes when the die is tossed once. Answer :
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

b ) instead of one die, two dice can also be tossed simultaneousla by each player. The player will move the token according to the sum of all dots on both turned-up faces. For example, if the two dice are tossed simultaneously and 2 appears on one die and 3 appears on other the other, the outcome of the toss is (2,3). Hence, the player shall move the token 5 places. Note: the events (2,3) and (3,2) should be treated as two different events. List all the possible outcomes when two dice are tossed simultaneously. Organize and present your list clearly. Consider the use of table, chart or even tree diagram.

Answer :

a ) Table 1 show the sum of all dots on both turned-up faces when two dices are tossed simultaneously.

Sum of the dots on both turned-up faces (x) 2 3 4 5 6

Possible outcomes (1,1) (1,2),(2,1) (1,3),(2,2),(3,1) (1,4),(2,3),(3,2),(4,1) (1,5),(2,4),(3,3),(4,2),(5,1)

Probability, P(x) 1/36 2/36 3/36 4/36 5/36

7 8 9 10 11 12

(1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1) (2,6),(3,5),(4,4),(5,3),(6,2) (3,6),(4,5),(5,4),(6,3) (4,6),(5,5),(6,4) (5,6),(6,5) (6,6)

6/36 5/36 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36

Table 1(i)

b ) Table of possible outcomes of the following events and their corresponding probabilities.
Possible outcomes A (the two numbers are not the same) ( 36-6) = 30

Probability P(X) 30/36

B (the product of the two numbers is greater than 36)

C (both numbers are prime or the difference between two numbers is odd)

P = Both number are prime P = {(2,2), (2,3), (2,5), (3,3), (3,5), (5,3), (5,5)} Q = Difference of 2 number is odd Q = { (1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1),

22/36

(2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,4),(3,6), (4,1), (4,3), (4,5), (5,2), (5,4), (5,6), (6,1), (6,3), (6,5) }

D (the sum of the two numbers are even and both numbers are prime)

P = Both number are prime P = {(2,2), (2,3), (2,5), (3,3), (3,5), (5,3), (5,5)} R = The sum of two numbers are even R = {(1,1), (1,3), (1,5), (2,2), (2,4), (2,6), (3,1), (3,3), (3,5), (4,2), (4,4), (4,6), (5,1), (5,3), (5,5), (6,2(, (6,4), (6,6)} D=PR D = {(2,2), (3,3), (3,5), (5,3), (5,5)}

5/36

Table 1(ii)

a ) Conduct an activity by tossing two dice simultaneously 50 times. Observe the sum of all dots on both turned-up faces. Complete the frequency table below.

Sum of the Frequency two numbers ( ( ) ) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2 4 4 9 4 11 4 6 3 1 2 = 50 Table 2 4 12 16 45 24 77 32 54 30 11 24 = 329

8 36 64 225 144 539 256 486 300 121 288 = 2467

a)Based on table 2 that you have completed, determine the value of :

i) Mean ii) Varience iii) Standard deviation of the data

b) Predict the value of the mean if the number of tosses is increased to 100 times. c) Test your prediction in b by continuing Activity 3(a) until the total number of tosses is 100 times. Then, determine the value of : i) Mean ii) Variance iii)Standard deviation of the new data

Was your prediction proven ?

Solution : a]

i)

Mean =

= = 6.58

ii)

Variance = = = (6.58)2

= 6.044
iii)

Standard deviation = = = 2.458

b]
Sum of the two numbers ( ) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Frequency ( ) 4 5 6 16 12 21 10 8 9 5 4 = 100 8 15 24 80 72 147 80 72 90 55 48 = 691
2

16 45 96 400 432 1029 640 648 900 605 576 = 5387

Prediction of mean = 6.91

c]
i.

Mean = 6.91

ii.

Variance = = = 6.122
2

iii.

Standard deviation = = 2.474

Prediction is proven.

When two dice are tossed simultaneously, the actual mean and variance of the sum of all dots on the turned-up faces can be determined by using the formulae below :
Mean = Variance =

x P(x)

x 2 P(x) (mean) 2

a ) Based on Table 1, determine the actual mean, the variance and the standard deviation or the sum of all dots on the turned-up faces by using the formulae given.

b ) Compare the mean, variance and standard deviation obtained in Part 4 and Part 5. What can you say about the values ? explain in your own words your interpretation and your understanding of the values that you have obtainrd and relate your answers to the Teoretical and Empirical Probabilities.

c ) If n is the number of times two dices are tossed simultaneously, what is the range of mean of the sum of all dots on the turned-up faces as n changes? Make your conjecture and support your conjecture.

Solutions :

a)

Mean = x P(x) =

=7 Variance = x 2 P(x) (mean) 2

=

- (7)2 = 54.83 49

= 5.83 Standard deviation = = 2.415

b) Part 4 n = 50 Mean Variance Standard deviation We can see that, the mean, variance and standard deviation that we obtained through experiment in part 4 are different but close to the theoretical value in part 5. For mean, when the number of trial increased from n=50 to n=100, its value get closer (from 6.58 to 6.91) to the theoretical value. This is in accordance to the Law of Large Number. We will discuss Law of Large Number in next section. Nevertheless, the empirical variance and empirical standard deviation that we obtained i part 4 get further 6.58 6.044 2.458 n = 100 6.91 6.122 2.474 7.00 5.83 2.415 Part 5

from the theoretical value in part 5. This violates the Law of Large Number. This is probably due to a. The sample (n=100) is not large enough to see the change of value of mean, variance and standard deviation. b. Law of Large Number is not an absolute law. Violation of this law is still possible though the probability is relative low. In conclusion, the empirical mean, variance and standard deviation can be different from the theoretical value. When the number of trial (number of sample) getting bigger, the empirical value should get closer to the theoretical value. However, violation of this rule is still possible, especially when the number of trial (or sample) is not large enough.

C) The range of the mean

Conjecture: As the number of toss, n, increases, the mean will get closer to 7. 7 is the theoretical mean.