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Abstract
1. Introduction
2. The Theorem
Bayes' Theorem relates the conditional and marginal probabilities of events. For two events
AAA and BBB, with P(B)>0P(B) > 0P(B)>0:
Where:
Suppose a disease affects 1% of a population. A diagnostic test is 99% accurate (i.e., 99%
true positive and true negative rates).
Let:
DDD: patient has the disease
Given:
P(D∣T)=P(T∣D)⋅P(D)P(T)=0.99⋅0.010.99⋅0.01+0.01⋅0.99=0.00990.0198=0.5P(D|T) = \frac{P(T|
D) \cdot P(D)}{P(T)} = \frac{0.99 \cdot 0.01}{0.99 \cdot 0.01 + 0.01 \cdot 0.99} = \
frac{0.0099}{0.0198} = 0.5P(D∣T)=P(T)P(T∣D)⋅P(D)=0.99⋅0.01+0.01⋅0.990.99⋅0.01
=0.01980.0099=0.5
Surprisingly, even with a positive test, the probability the patient actually has the disease is
only 50%. This highlights the importance of base rates in probabilistic reasoning.
4. Applications
Bayesian classifiers like the Naïve Bayes algorithm use Bayes’ Theorem to categorize data
points, especially in spam filtering, sentiment analysis, and pattern recognition.
Bayes' framework is widely used in decision-making systems where risk and uncertainty
must be accounted for — including economics, robotics, and weather forecasting.
5. Conclusion
Bayes’ Theorem offers a mathematically rigorous method for updating beliefs based on
evidence. Its applications span across fields and disciplines, from healthcare and artificial
intelligence to legal reasoning and finance. Mastery of Bayesian reasoning is increasingly
vital in the age of data-driven decision-making.
References