2 - Vietnam Capital Market Report - 032019
2 - Vietnam Capital Market Report - 032019
Section Page
1
Vietnam Capital Market Report
03/2019 MB SECURITIES JOINT STOCK COMPANY 3
SECTION 1
Macro Highlights (1/6)
Vietnam has been one of the fastest-growing economy in Asia over the last 5 years, with GDP growth’s CAGR of 6.6%
Vietnam’s GDP growth and inflation 2011 - 2018 GDP growth comparison
300 20 8.0%
18
250
16
14
200
12
150 10 5.0%
8
100
6
4
50
2
2.0%
0 0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Asean Developing Asia Vietnam
GDP (current US$ bn) Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
Real GDP Growth (%)
Sources: GSO, World bank, BMI
Vietnam witnessed another year of strong GDP growth, at 7.08% in 2018, which likely marks the fourth consecutive year that Vietnam GDP growth
outperforms those of Asean and Developed Asian countries. In the overall context, such impressive result is attributed to the processing and manufacturing
sector with an increasingly open economy and services sector.
The inflation rate in the post-crisis period, after the tremendous fluctuation during the period 2011 - 2014, has remained low under 5% in four consecutive
years. Its stability in the mid-term vision is supported by the consolidating monetary policies and sound macroeconomic conditions.
STATE BUDGETS
AND PUBLIC The government has been determined in accelerating
SECTORS the privatization process, applying technology and
management innovation to enhance the public sector
and encourage the participation of private sector in
IMPROVING
PUBLIC the economy:
INVESTMENT, There are 406 SOEs in the divestment and
PRODUCTIVITY,
STATE-OWNED
QUALITY AND equalization plan during the 2016 – 2020 period.
ENTERPRISES
EFFICIENCY
AND CREDIT Over 2016 – 6/2018, privatization process brought
INSTITUTIONS about VND198,000bn to the government budget, a 2.5
times compared to that of the 2011-2015 period.
Some remarkable deals recently include IPO of BSR,
ECONOMY PV Power, divestment from Sabeco.
RESTRUCTURING In Sep 2018, for a better management of SOEs, State
Capital Management Committee was established to
manage 19 leading SOEs including SCIC, PVN, EVN,
DEVELOPING THE ACV, Petrolimex, VNPT, etc
DEVELOPING FINANCE MARKET,
DOMESTIC LAND USE RIGHT
PRIVATE MARKET, LABOR
Remarkable deals in 2019
SECTORS AND MARKET, SCIENCE IPO: Agribank, Mobiphone, VNPT, EVNGenco2, ect.
ATTRACTING AND TECHNOLOGY Divestment: Thanh Long Tobacco, Tien Phong
FDI MARKET Plastic, Vietcombank, BIDV.
Indonesia 73
Simplify preregistration and registration formalities (publication,
Vietnam ranks 4th in WB’s notarization, inspection, and other requirements).
Phillipines 124 selected Asian countries
Singapore 2 in terms of business Expand court automation by introducing electronic payment,
Myanmar 171 environment. This is a electronic service of process, automatic assignment of cases to
Malaysia 15 13-rank jump compared judges and publishing judgments.
Thailand 27
to the previous year.
Make the procedure more simple for tax payers by no longer
Vietnam 69
requesting hard copy submission of the value added tax return,
0 50 100 150 200
allowing joint payment of the business license tax and value added
Vietnam ranked 3 in ASEAN and BRICs in terms of Political stability, 2018
tax.
Singapore 1,33 Facilitate the business registration process by publishing the notice of
Brunei 1,08
Vietnam 0,22
incorporation online and reducing the cost.
Laos 0,06
Malaysia 0,05 Plan to cut 3807 out of current 6191 business conditions in 2018. By
South Africa -0,06 Oct 2018, 1133 conditions were eliminated officially. Especially in the
Cambodia -0,16
Brazil -0,28 financial sectors, 26 conditions were no longer effective and 23
Indonesia -0,50 conditions in establishing and operating a securities company were
China -0,55
Russia -0,75 simplified.
Philippines -1,06
Myanmar -1,15
India -1,19
Thailand -1,32 Political stability index
Low interest rates, a stable economy, strategic location and an abundant labor FDI inflow by sector, accumulated as of 20/12/2017
force are key attractiveness to draw private and foreign investments. The number 200,000 16,000
of private and foreign investments in Vietnam rose by 3% pa over 2013 – 2018. 160,000
12,000
By 8/2018, there have been 26,438 FDI projects with total register capital of 120,000
8,000
USD333.8billion. Out of which, USD183.6billion was disbursed from 129 80,000
countries, in which Korean and Japanese investors were the most active with total 4,000
40,000
investments of USD 61.08bn and USD 55.84 billion, respectively.
0 0
Manufacturing and industrial have been the most attractive sectors to foreigners
due to the countries’ advantages of cheap & abundant labor force as well as
government’s incentive policies.
Registed capital No. Of project
65
Improvements in data transparency that raise the credibility and
17 effectiveness of policy.
SOE commercial banks
705
Government set goals for financial market by 2020:
1,009 Comercial Jsc Bank
The ratio of bad debts (including items on balance sheets of credit institutions,
2505
4,654 Joint Venture Bank amounts sold to AMC) must be reduced to below 3%.
4,197 Most of commercial banks must follow Basel II standards for the equity capital
Financial Leasing
Company ratio and at least 12 to 15 players apply successfully Basel II standards.
2463 Co-Op Bank Capital sizes of the stocks, government bonds and insurance markets are
targeted to rise to 70%, 30% and 40% of the annual GDP.
VND bn
24%
60,000 53,109
Digital finance and corporate finance are
Personal Finance
expected to rise by CAGR of 31.2% and 40,000 32,384
2
Vietnam Capital Market Report
03/2019 MB SECURITIES JOINT STOCK COMPANY 10
SECTION 2
2.1 Market Structure
The structure of Vietnam Stock Market The structure of Vietnam Debt Capital Market
Ministry of Ministry of
Secondary
Finance Primary market Primary market Finance Secondary
market market
SSC SSC
Gov.Bond
SSC SSC
Issuance Gove. Bond Market Corp. Bond Market
500.0%
2009: Government
400.0% kicks off economic 8/2017: Launch
Stimulus Package Derivative market
300.0% 1/2016: Apply T+2
2011: Effect of
200.0% Become a member stimulus package
of WTO in 11/2006.
100.0% Foreign capital start 2008: Global Financial crisis. 2012-: Restructure economy policy, focus on
flowing to Vietnam. Fall to bottom in 2/2009 financial organizations, SOEs and public investment
0.0%
-100.0%
12/2/2002 12/2/2003 12/2/2004 12/2/2005 12/2/2006 12/2/2007 12/2/2008 12/2/2009 12/2/2010 12/2/2011 12/2/2012 12/2/2013 12/2/2014 12/2/2015 12/2/2016 12/2/2017 12/2/2018
Market Cap and Number of listed companies Trading value (VND bn) P/E comparison
4,500 900 3,000,000 25
4,000 800 21
2,500,000
3,500 700 20
20 18
3,000 600 2,000,000 18
VND trillion
2,500 500
1,500,000 15
2,000 400
1,500 300 1,000,000
1,000 200 10
500,000
500 100
0 0 0
5
31/12/2015 31/12/2016 29/12/2017 31/10/2018
HNX (LHS) HOSE (LHS)
0
UPCoM (LHS) # of listed comps (RHS)
Thái lan Indonesia Philipine Việt Nam
# of Upcom comps (RHS) HNX HOSE UPCom
Source: MBS collection, calculation and computation
Vietnam Capital Market Report
03/2019 MB SECURITIES JOINT STOCK COMPANY
12
SECTION 2
2.1 Vietnam Stock Market (2/4)
Secondary market – Underpenetrated with huge room for further growth
Vietnam stock market is still underpenetrated Increasing foreign capital inflow & introduction of new products
The percentage of foreign
Out of 90 million of population, there are only 1.9 million individual accounts. Given Net foreign capital flows
participation is still modest with VND billion
consistently superior return of stock market over traditional investment channels
only 27,412 foreign investor 30,000
(deposit and gold) and increasing transparency, the stock market is expected to
accounts as of Sep 2018. 25,000
attract more new investors.
Return yoy over 2007-2018 Nonetheless, being set on its 20,000
120.0%
was opened with total transaction 1,500,000 150,000
value reaching VND~258 trillion 1,000,000 100,000
80.0%
in Jul 2018.
500,000 50,000
40.0% More products are expected to
be introduced in the coming 0 0
0.0%
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Apr-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Jan-18
Jun-18
May-18
Mar-18
Feb-18
Jul-18
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 period: T0, corporate bonds,
Vietnam Thailand Philippines Indonesia Malaysia
short selling, covered warrant
Source: HNX, MBS
and other derivatives products. volume Value
USD million
28,055 400 8,000
300 6,000
980 6,060 3,641 30,000 200 4,000
0
100 2,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H2018
0 0
Looking forwards, The government continues planning to privatize 259 companies
in the next 2 years, including big companies such as PVN, Vietnam Airline, ACV,
Tien Phong Plastic, VinaPharm, etc. Number of Transactions Total Transaction Value
Total value of IPOs and capital raising from new share issuances over
VND billion 2013 - 2018 Breakdown of M&A value by sectors
FMCG and Real Estates have inside-out: 2017-1H2018
3% 1%
25000 100
witnessed the highest number
20000 80 of M&A deals in recent years. 10%
0 0
deals in Real Estates accounts Manufacturing
67%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 for 67% of total transaction Others
30 15%
development, under which the ratio of outstanding value to GDP is
expected to be 45% in 2020 and 65% in 2030.
20 10%
10 5%
The local bond market is dominated by government and government-
linked issuers with total outstanding value standing at 21.5% of GDP as
0 0%
of Sep 2018.
Corporate bonds’ outstanding value only stands at ~1.5% of GDP, while
the bank loan to GDP ratio has reached ~130%.
Government - LHS Corporate - LHS In the secondary market, there are only 585 companies/institutions
Government(% GDP) - RHS Corporate(% GDP) - RHS having bonds listed on HSX and HNX. Average trading value per month
stood at only ~USD420M in the first 10 months of 2018.
Corporate bond market size in Asia countries in 2018 Bond Outstanding on listed market
USD bn
100 400 0.4
30%
80 25% 300 0.3
Value (USD billion) %GDP Number of companies/institutions - LHS Trading Value (USD bn) - LHS
Participants
in stock Decree No.163/2018/ND-CP Decision 501, 750/QD-SGDHN Decree No. 42/2015/ND-CP on
Decree No.
markets 58/2012/ND-CP; Regulations for Corporate Bond Circular 46/2017/TT-BTC; derivative securities and
operate in ND. 60/2015 on Issuances Decision 1583/QĐ-NHNN and derivatives securities market
accordance stipulating in others – Regulations for
with the Law detail and guiding Trading Government and
on Securities the Corporate Bonds
2006 and implementation Circular 155/2015/TT-BTC;
decision no.340/QĐ-SGDHCM; Decree No. 86/2016/NĐ-CP
amendmanets of a number of
articles of the Decision No.606/QĐ-SGDCKHN Requirements for Investment
2010, and Trading in Securities
securities law and on guiding information disclosure
documents in stock market
the law amending Document 01/VBHN-BTC and
and
and Decree no.145/2016/ND-CP, no
regulations
supplementing a 108/2013/ND-CP on Penalties
related to number of Decision 653/QĐ-SGDHN and Circular No.115/2017/TT-BTC
for Administrative violation
securities articles of Decision 341/QĐ-SGDHCM – Instruction for supervising
against regulations on securities
markets securities law Regulations for Trading Securities securities trading in stock
and securities market market
in Stock Exchanges
Foreign ownership ratio in securities companies is increased from 49% to 100% in accordance with decree no. 60/2015/NĐ-CP.
2012-2016
Circular no. 210/2012/TT-BTC provides guidance
for establishment of securities company and 1
Circular No. 07/2016/TT-BTC on amendments
and supplements to certain articles of the Circular
2012 - 2015 No. 210/2012/TT-BTC
• Regulations for the conditions of institutions
• Decree no. 58/2012/NĐ-CP provides guidance (including foreign institutions) for contributing
for implementing the Law on Securities and capital in securities company
Decree no. 60/2015/NĐ-CP, amendments of • Limits borrowings ratios of securities
Decree no. 58 companies: total liabilities/Owner’s equities <=
• Legal capital for each business segment of 3, investment in real estates/total assets <=
securities companies: Brokerage 25 billions 50%, investment in bond /owner’s equities <=
2006 - 2010 VND, proprietary trading 100 billions VND, 70%.
Law on Securities 2006 and amendments underwriting 165 billions VND, investment • Regulations for responsibilities, duties of
provides regulations for establishment and consulting 10 billions VND securities company for each business
operations of securities company • Ownership ratio of foreign investors is segment: brokerage, proprietary trading,
The SSC is an agency under the MoF, increased from 49% to 100% of charter capital. advisory services, investment consulting,
responsible for granting Business Registration • Conditions, procedures related to public underwriting
Certificate, inspecting, managing and offering, listing, etc.
supervising operations of securities companies
3
Vietnam Capital Market Report
03/2019 MB SECURITIES JOINT STOCK COMPANY 19
Section 3
3.1 Steps for private equity investment (M&A)
General procedure of a M&A transaction What MBS could support in M&A transaction?
Scrutinize the
1 “target” Market and Target Researches support in step 1.
Defining
Target review
Market-entry Target, Deal
and Initial
research Identification structuring
Transaction Contact
2 Execution
and Selection
Trading Process
Open an
Indirect/Contributi
on Capital
Apply for a (IICA/CCA)
Securities Trading account at a
Code (STC)* at Commercial Bank
VSA (submit Transfer money from
oversea account to an VND VND
application form IICA/CCA Securities Place an
and other required USD account in one account Account order
documents. Vietnam bank in USD, USD* VND
Open a Securities
Trading Account
After having fulfilled their tax obligations to the State of Vietnam, foreign investors shall be entitled
MBS will support to apply for a STC and open banking and trading to purchase foreign currency at authorized banks to remit overseas in accordance with applicable
account given the full apply dossier provided by foreign investors laws on foreign exchange control; Income tax: 0.1% of gross value of sale proceeds.
Besides, foreigner investors can invest in open-end funds in Vietnam by opening accounts in the fund and transfer money from IICA/CCA account.
VSD: Vietnam Securities Depositary
MBS: MB Securities Joint Stock Companies
STC: each foreign investor has only one Securities Trading Code and only one Securities Trading Account for trading securities in Vietnam Stock Markets. This code is issued on a perpetual
basis and does not expire or require reapplication or renewal.
IICA/CCA account: A Vietnamese Dong (VND) cash account is mandatory, The IICA/CCA account can only be used for securities-related transactions in Vietnam. A US Dollar (USD) cash
account is optional to foreign investors and is used for transfer or remittance of USD funds offshore. Vietnam Capital Market Report
03/2019 MB SECURITIES JOINT STOCK COMPANY
21
Section 3
3.2 Step for investing/trading stocks in Vietnam Stock Exchanges (2/5).
Trading process in underlying market for both domestic/foreign investors
Investors
App Stock 24/Mstock
T+0 24/Mobile 24 If matching, T+2 Clearing
Place an House
Notify and suspend order
cash/stocks in client’s Brokers( chat,phone, MBS MBS
account if matched. email, fax)
ATO & ATC Trading: Buy and sell orders are entered in the trading Price Priority
system and queued for matching at a specified time at a single price Buy orders at higher price shall take precedence
that generates the greatest trading volumes for that particular stock. Sell orders at lower price shall take precedence
This matching method is used to determine the opening price and Time Priority
closing price of a particular stock.
For buy or sell orders at the same price, those entered into the
Limit price: The trading system continuously matches the first buy and trading system earlier shall take precedence in execution
sells orders in the queue, and at the same time, confirms each
executed transaction via the member’s terminal. Price range
Market price (MP): MP is an order to buy or sell a stock at the best
available price. The order can be matched at more than one price level. No price range applied for bonds.
Unmatched quantity (if any) will be converted to a limit order at price Price range for stocks, closed-end fund certificates :
equal to the last executed price plus/minus one price spread. Market
order is allowed during opening session only Ceiling price = Reference price x (100% + Price range)
Put Through (PT) Trading (just in underlying market): Members
Floor price = Reference price x (100% - Price range)
negotiate on details of the deals and enter in the trading system for
approval. The trading system allows brokers to advertise buy or sell • Price range: HSX: 7%; HNX :10%; Upcom: 15%
interests. Members may then deal directly with each other and prices
• Reference price:
may be adjusted during the negotiation. However, the executed price
must follow the price range for that particular stock during the day. HSX/HNX: the closing price of stocks on the previous trading date
Upcom: the average weighted price of all executed prices by continuous order
matching method on the most recent trading date.