1 Arguments
1 Arguments
There are mushrooms that you can eat safely and mushrooms that will kill you if
you eat them.
If you mistakenly believe that the edible ones are poisonous, you will miss out on
something delicious.
If you mistakenly believe that the poisonous ones are edible, you will kill everyone
who eats your cooking.
The prudent thing is to not eat poisonous mushrooms yourself. The morally right
thing is not to feed poisonous mushrooms to anybody else. It is common sense
and common decency.
To ensure that you do the prudent thing and the morally right thing, you have to
avoid believing the falsehood that poisonous mushrooms are edible.
The only way to avoid believing the falsehood that poisonous mushrooms are
edible is by avoiding believing without sufficient evidence that any mushrooms
are edible. (See William Kingdon Clifford, 1879, “The Ethics of Belief,” in his
Lectures and Essays, Vol 2 (London: MacMillan & Co), pp. 177-211; and Brian
Zamulinski, 2022, “Clifford’s Consequentialism,” Utilitas 34(3), pp. 289-299.)
Critical thinking is a set of techniques and information that help you to avoid
believing without sufficient evidence. As the mushroom example shows, you have
prudential and moral reasons to avoid believing without sufficient evidence.
Look around you in the classroom. It is obviously true that there are human
beings in the room, that they are students, that they intend to learn, etc., etc. In
other words, some truths are really unquestionable and any one of us could
compile a long list of obviously unquestionable truths.
Furthermore, you spend a lot of time and energy acquiring new beliefs. That’s
what learning is all about. You would not spend the considerable time or energy
unless new beliefs were useful or helpful. But, often, you cannot tell whether a
belief is useful or helpful at the time you acquire it. You will find that out only
later, sometimes much later. So, you need a proxy or substitute for usefulness or
helpfulness. The only plausible proxy is truth. If so, two things follow: there is
such a thing as truth and you are a natural-born truth-seeker.
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Of course, not all truths are easy to discover, so we get people disagreeing about
some issues. But that just means we have to be patient and thorough, and not
jump to conclusions.
Arguments
(1) If a mushroom is poisonous, you should not serve it to your family. (2)
The mushroom in your hand is a death cap, which is poisonous. So, (3) you
should not serve it to your family.
The first two sentences are reasons for the third. They tell us why you should not
serve death caps to your family.
The three sentences in the argument are a type of sentence called a statement or
proposition. I will call it a proposition. The sentences in arguments are always of
this type. Propositions contrast with other kinds of sentences: questions,
commands, and exclamations.
The first sentence is grammatical but the other three are ungrammatical.
9. How annoying!
If you check the argument, you will be able to see that all three sentences are
propositions.
Arguments have other features that you should note. First, the propositions are
of two kinds. Some are propositions that give reasons supporting another
proposition and one is the proposition that is supported by the reasons. As
mentioned, 1) and 2) are supporting propositions while 3) is the supported
proposition.
The word So at the start of the third proposition has a special function. It is a
conclusion indicator. As its name tells you, it indicates the conclusion. Other
common conclusion indicators include Therefore, Hence, Thus, Consequently, and
It follows that. Some arguments also include premise indicators such as Since,
because, and After all. Premise and conclusion indicators will come up again
later. Indicator words can help you decide whether a passage is an argument and
to decide which propositions are premises and which is the conclusion. But do
not rely on indicators alone.
The conclusion can come at the end, the beginning, or in the middle of an
argument. The conclusion is underlined in the three versions of the following
argument. There are no conclusion indicators but there are premise indicators
(Since, after all) that help you see which propositions are premises.
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Since we want a new car and we can afford it, we should buy one.
We should buy a new car. After all, we want one and we can afford it.
Since we want a new car, we should buy one. After all, we can afford it.
No matter where the conclusion comes, logicians would rewrite the argument in
the following format, which is called standard form.
The format puts each premise on its own line, draws a line under the list of
premises, and puts the conclusion below the line. The format is a useful reminder
of something that will become important soon: to discover whether an argument
is good, you have to check whether the premises are true and whether the
conclusion really is supported by the premises. You want the premises to be true
and you want the premises to support the conclusion because, otherwise, you
cannot be confident that the conclusion is true. There will be more on that later.
We will be more concerned about whether the premises support the conclusion
than whether the premises are true, but it is still important to observe the
distinction. A couple of things to note about the standard form format is that the
indicator words are removed and any pronouns are replaced by explicit noun
phrases.
You can turn a radio on or off, and you can increase or decrease the volume.
Some arguments are ones that are either on or off. They are called deductive
arguments. Some arguments can be stronger or weaker, like a radio’s output can
be louder or softer. They are called inductive arguments.
The best way to understand arguments, like many other things, is by means of
examples. First let’s look at some deductive arguments.
The next deductive argument is called Conjunction. If you have two premises
that are both true, and the conclusion is just the combination of the two, there is
no way for the premises to be true and the conclusion false, so the example is
both valid and sound.
3. Saskatoon is in Saskatchewan.
Prince Albert is in Saskatchewan.
_______________________
Both Saskatoon and Prince Albert are in Saskatchewan.
There are people who fail to graduate not because they fail courses but because
they don’t take enough courses to get a degree. Maybe they decide that it is
better to start a job than it is to continue to study.
There are lots of other valid deductive arguments and most of them do not have
names but let’s turn to inductive arguments.
With Generalization, you move inductively from a premise about a sample of the
population to a conclusion about the whole population. Of course, polls can be
wrong, as you know. Still, the premise supports the conclusion even though it
does not guarantee it.
10. All the witnesses say that the thief was wearing a U of S hoodie (bunny
hug).
____________________________________________________
The thief was probably wearing a U of S hoodie (bunny hug).
Physicians often look at the symptoms a patient exhibits and infers a particular
illness. This is Inference to the Best Explanation.
There are indicator words for deductive and inductive arguments. Words and
phrases like “necessarily” and “it must follow” indicate deductive arguments. Any
argument that mentions all things or everything is liable to be deductive as well.
Words and phrases like “many,” “most,” and “probably” often indicate inductive
arguments.
Exercise 1.2. What is the name of the argument form that the argument
exemplifies? Is it deductive or inductive?
h. Yesterday was cloudy, cold, with wind from the north, and it rained.
Today is cloudy, cold, and the wind is from the north.
____________________________________
It will probably rain again.
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k. John is tall.
John is thin.
____________________________________
John is tall and thin.
Exercise 1.3. What is the name of the argument form that the argument
exemplifies? Is it deductive or inductive? Don’t look up the words in these
arguments. They are just made up.
I. If it is brillig, it is mimsy.
It is brillig.
____________________________________
It is mimsy
IV. It is brillig.
It is mimsy.
____________________________________
It is brillig and mimsy.
It is not brillig.
____________________________________
It is mimsy.
X. If it is brillig, it is mimsy.
If it is mimsy, it is outgrabe.
____________________________________
If it is brillig, it is outgrabe.
You can construe any string of propositions as an argument, but the odds are that
it would be a very bad argument. So, it is useful to have some idea of the
difference between arguments and other sorts of things. This will also help you
distinguish arguments from other sorts of writing when you are reading books
and articles by raising your awareness of a number of types, some of which can
easily be mistaken for arguments.
Here is an argument.
There are no other indicator words, but the word “should” in the conclusion is the
kind of word that often goes with conclusions when the premises are factual
claims.
William is probably the person who stole the money from the cash register.
He was the only employee who had access to it at the time the money
disappeared. He had been complaining about being broke all day. And,
despite his complaints, he bought two cartons of cigarettes right after his
shift ended. And cartons of cigarettes are really expensive. About $130
each.
And
Dr. Smith argued that people who run marathons should not drink too much
water because it can cause hyponatremia which can lead to seizures and
coma.
Several people suffered seizures during the race. It was probably because
they drank too much water, which caused them to develop hyponatremia.
There are a number of dangers that marathon runners face. For instance,
sometimes, they suffer from hyponatremia because they drink too much
water during a race.
If you run a lot on a hot day and drink a lot of water, you run the risk of
developing hyponatremia.
When the Persians landed at Marathon, the courier Pheidippides ran from
Athens to Sparta to get help. Then, he ran back to Athens. Leaving Athens,
he ran to Marathon, where he learned that the Athenians had beaten the
Persians. He ran back to Athens to deliver the news. He died in Athens
after telling the people of the victory. There is no way of knowing for sure
but he might have died from hyponatremia.
I believe that runners are protected from all kinds of harm by the right kind
of amulet. I believe that the right kind of amulet will prevent hyponatremia
as much as it prevents sprained ankles and torn ligaments.
1. The COVID-19 vaccine has been extensively tested. It has side-effects but they
are far fewer and far milder than the effects of COVID-19. It is effective, reducing
the probability that people will get infected and reducing the probability that an
infection will be serious. For these reasons, people should get vaccinated.
2. The COVID-19 vaccine is good medicine. It has been extensively tested. It has
side-effects but they are far fewer and far milder than the effects of COVID-19. It
is effective, reducing the probability that people will get infected and reducing
the probability that an infection will be serious.
3. The COVID-19 has been given to millions of people. Before that, it was tested
like any other vaccine. In an effort to vaccinate more people, pop-up clinics in
accessible places are held frequently.
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4. Rochelle Walensky, head of the CDC, contended that the COVID-19 vaccine has
been extensively tested, that its side-effects are far fewer and far milder than the
effects of COVID-19, that it is effective, reducing the probability that people will
get infected and reducing the probability that an infection will be serious, and
that, for these reasons, people should get vaccinated.
5. Some places not only have vaccination programs but also mask mandates,
social distancing requirements, quarantine requirements and even lockdowns.
Those places have fewer cases than places with fewer requirements and
restrictions.
6. I believe that Taiwan has had fewer cases than Canada because of their mask
mandate, their social distancing requirements, their quarantine requirements and
their lockdowns.
7. It was a mistake to lift all the pandemic restrictions in July. The delta variant
is more infectious than other strains and we need a variety of measures to keep
cases down.
8. Premier Moe denied that it was a mistake to lift all the pandemic restrictions.
He claimed that vaccines are enough.
9. That man argues that if you don’t get vaccinated, you could be a vector for
COVID-19 and cause harm to others, and that you should not cause harm to
others. He concedes that there is the risk of side-effects from the vaccine but
points out that you take risks for less important reasons, like driving to Regina for
rider games. He claims that if you are willing to take such risks, you should be
willing to take risks to help others.
11. If you don’t get vaccinated, you could be a vector for COVID-19 and thereby
cause harm to others.
12. Outbreaks of COVID occurred after the motorcycle rally in Sturgis, SD, in
2020 and 2021. The Sturgis Rally is the largest such event in the world. Only
motorcyclists and their fans attend.
13. It was first thought that barriers and handwashing were the best measures to
take against COVID, but it was discovered that it was spread by aerosols, so now
we know that masks and ventilation are more important.
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14. Masks and barriers have both been used to reduce the spread of COVID-19.
But it is spread primarily by aerosols, so the barriers do not do much good.
Consequently, we should encourage mask use while eliminating the barriers.
16. At first, people washed their hands, wiped down surfaces, and left packages
alone for at least a day. Now, people wear masks and keep their windows open.
17. We can either vaccinate more people or give the already vaccinated another
dose. If we give another dose, there’s a greater chance that nastier variants will
evolve in the unvaccinated. Hence, we should vaccinate more people.
18. The USA is giving some people a third dose to protect them while
simultaneously encouraging people to get vaccinated to minimize the likelihood of
the evolution of variants that can’t be stopped by vaccines.
19. The history of vaccination is interesting. The first disease for which a vaccine
was developed was smallpox. The first vaccine exposed people to cowpox, which
was much less dangerous and which immunized people against smallpox. A
vaccination campaign in the 1960s and 1970s resulted in the eradication of
smallpox. Now, the virus is found in just two laboratories in the world and it is no
longer necessary to vaccinate people.
1. The NDP should be given a chance to lead if the Liberals and Conservatives
are just the same and the NDP care more about ordinary Canadians.
2. If the Liberals have experience in government, they are the safest party to
elect.
3. Pierre Poilievre makes the case that the Conservatives would form a good
government. He says the reason is that they have reasonable policies that appeal
to a broad spectrum of Canadians.
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4. I believe that the PPC is right to support the freedom of individuals to choose
whether they will get vaccinated.
5. The NDP, which used to be called the CCF, is supported by many labour
unions. The conservatives are supported by business. And the Greens are
supported by people who are primarily concerned about the environment.
6. Green parties are sometimes very successful. For example, the Green Party in
Germany is part of the coalition government.
7. The Liberals are liable to win the election because they have the most support
in the provinces with the most seats.
8. The Green Party will win only one seat. The reasons are that Elizabeth May is
the only Green candidate popular enough to win and unpopular parties do not win
seats.
9. The PPC needs to be in government. It is clear that Canada needs a party that
is patriotic and that will not compromise our liberties.
10. If the Conservatives have reasonable policies that appeal to a broad spectrum
of Canadians, they would form a good government.
11. The PPC won’t win any seats again this time. They do not have enough
support anywhere to win.
12. The Conservatives are going to come in second even though their support is
as high as the Liberals because their support is too concentrated.
13. The Conservatives originated with the amalgamation of the old Progressive
Conservative Party with the Reform Party. The NDP replaced the old CCF. Only
the Liberal Party has stayed organizationally the same since the beginning.
14. Justin Trudeau contends that the liberals are the safest party to elect because
they have experience in government and people have seen how they perform in
office.
15. Jagmeet Singh claims that the NDP should be given a chance to lead. The
reasons he gives are that the Liberals and Conservatives are just the same and
that the NDP care more about ordinary Canadians.
16. Elizabeth May declares that the Green Party must be elected, arguing that
global heating is the most important issue humanity confronts and that only the
Greens take it seriously enough.
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17. Maxime Bernier states that the PPC needs to be in government, reasoning
that Canada needs a patriotic party that will not compromise our liberties.
18. Some political parties last a long time. For instance, the Liberal Party of
Canada is as old as Canada itself.
19. I figure that the NDP will be third because their support is about the same as
it was before.
20. Since global heating is the most important issue humanity confronts and only
the Greens take it seriously enough, the Green Party must be elected.
1. What you call something is not always a function of its intrinsic properties.
For example, there is no intrinsic difference between streets and avenues—the
difference is that streets are oriented east-west while avenues run from north to
south.
3. I believe that we will defend democracy, that if we defend democracy, life will
be better for everyone, and , consequently, that life will be better for everyone.
4. The flower of England’s youth died in combat in Flanders. Cut flowers will last
longer if you put a bit of sugar in the water and if you change the water
frequently. Flower and flour are pronounced in exactly the same way but they are
names for different things.
6. Crustaceans are animals with hard shells. For instance, lobsters are
crustaceans.
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7. There are always fewer forest fires in winter. The reduction in their number is
the result of snow cover and cooler temperatures.
8. It was a class of extremes. Out of 125 students, 17 got marks over 90% while
23 failed. Nevertheless, the average was still a respectable 67%.
9. Provided we get in line early enough, we will be able to get tickets. We will
definitely be in the queue before anyone else. Consequently, then, we will
manage to buy tickets.
10. The cake is a vibrant green color because it was made with artificial pandan
extract.
11. The leader of the opposition is the preferred prime minister according to all
the polls. It is not because he is a particularly attractive or engaging individual
but the actual prime minister has been in power for many, many years, and has
made himself very unpopular.
13. We can either tour the castle or visit the botanical gardens. Fortifications are
more interesting than flowering plants, so obviously we should tour the castle.
14. Koreshanity was a religion promoted by Cyrus Teed in the 1890s. Teed and
his followers built a community where they could all live together in Estero,
Florida. Adherents of Koreshanity believed that the world was a globe but that we
were on the inside. They also believed in celibacy, which meant that they had no
children. Consequently, Koreshanity died out. All that remains of it is Koreshan
State Park, which is about sixteen miles south of Fort Myers.
15. The end of the line is the last railways station you can reach. The end of
philosophy is knowledge. And a soldier’s end is often particularly violent.
17. Most concert-goers are not season tickets holders. Mary and Mark are
concert goers. It follows that they are probably not season ticket holders.
18. We have managed to reduce shoplifting quite a bit. We have stopped people
from bringing backpacks into the store, we have made the price-stickers tamper
proof, and we check receipts against goods when people leave.
19. Alfred North Whitehead argued that we could be more certain of claims like
“This is a hand” when he displayed his hand than we could be of the arguments
for scepticism about the external world.
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20. If you do the exercises, you will better understand what you are studying in
this course.