PRESS RELEASE

Singapore’s GDP Grew by 3.8 Per Cent in the First Quarter

of 2025. MTI Downgrades Singapore’s GDP Growth Forecast For
2025 to “0.0 to 2.0 Per Cent”

14 April 2025. The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) today announced that
based on advance estimates 1, the Singapore economy grew by 3.8 per cent on a
year-on-year basis in the first quarter of 2025. MTI further announced that
Singapore’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been downgraded from “1.0 to
3.0 per cent” to “0.0 to 2.0 per cent”.

Economic Performance in First Quarter 2025

Based on advance estimates, the Singapore economy grew by 3.8 per cent year-
on-year in the first quarter of 2025, slower than the 5.0 per cent growth in the
previous quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted basis, the
economy contracted by 0.8 per cent, a reversal from the 0.5 per cent expansion
in the fourth quarter of 2024. This was due to sequential declines in
manufacturing and some outward-oriented services sectors such as finance &
insurance in tandem with slowing external demand.

Gross Domestic Product in Chained (2015) Dollars

1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 2024 1Q25*

Percentage change over corresponding period of previous year

Overall GDP 3.2 3.4 5.7 5.0 4.4 3.8

Goods Producing Industries -0.4 0.7 9.8 6.5 4.2 4.7

Manufacturing -1.1 -0.6 11.2 7.4 4.3 5.0

Construction 2.1 5.8 5.6 4.4 4.5 4.6

Services Producing Industries 4.5 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.4 3.4

Wholesale & Retail Trade and Transportation

4.0 4.4 6.0 5.6 5.0 4.2
& Storage
Information & Communications, Finance &
6.2 5.9 4.2 4.4 5.2 3.0
Insurance and Professional Services

Accommodation & Food Services, Real

Estate, Administrative & Support Services 2.9 1.4 1.8 2.5 2.1 2.5
and Other Services

1
The advance GDP estimates for the first quarter of 2025 are computed largely from data in the first
two months of the quarter (i.e., January and February 2025). They are intended as an early indication
of GDP growth in the quarter and are subject to revision when more comprehensive data become
available.
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100 High Street, #09-01, The Treasury, Singapore 179434 T (65) 6225 9911 F (65) 6332 7260 www.mti.gov.sg
 PRESS RELEASE
1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 2024 1Q25*

Quarter-on-quarter growth rate, seasonally-adjusted

Overall GDP 0.3 1.1 3.0 0.5 4.4 -0.8

Goods Producing Industries -2.8 0.2 9.0 0.0 4.2 -4.0

Manufacturing -3.2 -0.9 11.7 0.0 4.3 -4.9

Construction -2.8 5.1 1.9 0.3 4.5 -2.3

Services Producing Industries 1.5 1.0 1.2 0.9 4.4 0.3

Wholesale & Retail Trade and Transportation

1.9 2.8 1.1 -0.1 5.0 0.5
& Storage
Information & Communications, Finance &
-3.8 1.2 1.2 5.9 5.2 -5.0
Insurance and Professional Services

Accommodation & Food Services, Real

Estate, Administrative & Support Services 1.4 -0.5 1.2 0.3 2.1 1.4
and Other Services
*Advance estimates

By sectors, the manufacturing sector grew by 5.0 per cent year-on-year in the
first quarter of 2025, moderating from the 7.4 per cent expansion in the previous
quarter. Growth of the sector was supported by output expansions across all
clusters, except for the chemicals and general manufacturing clusters. On a
quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted basis, the sector shrank by 4.9 per cent,
worsening from its flat growth in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The construction sector expanded by 4.6 per cent year-on-year in the first
quarter, extending the 4.4 per cent growth in the previous quarter. Growth
during the quarter was supported by an increase in both public and private sector
construction output. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted basis, the
sector contracted by 2.3 per cent, a pullback from the 0.3 per cent expansion in
the preceding quarter.

Among the services sectors, the wholesale & retail trade and transportation &
storage sectors collectively grew by 4.2 per cent year-on-year in the first
quarter, easing from the 5.6 per cent growth in the previous quarter. All sectors
within the group, except for retail trade, expanded during the quarter. Growth
in the wholesale trade sector was driven by the machinery, equipment &
supplies segment, while that in the transportation & storage sector was largely
supported by the water transport and storage & other support services segments.
On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted basis, the wholesale & retail trade

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100 High Street, #09-01, The Treasury, Singapore 179434 T (65) 6225 9911 F (65) 6332 7260 www.mti.gov.sg
 PRESS RELEASE
and transportation & storage sectors as a whole expanded by 0.5 per cent, a
turnaround from the 0.1 per cent contraction in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The group of sectors comprising the information & communications, finance &
insurance and professional services sectors grew by 3.0 per cent year-on-year
in the first quarter, moderating from the 4.4 per cent growth in the previous
quarter. All sectors within the group expanded during the quarter. Growth in
the information & communications sector was bolstered by continued strong
demand for IT and digital solutions, while that in the professional services
sector was supported by the head offices & business representative offices and
management consultancy segments. Meanwhile, the finance & insurance sector
expanded on account of the strong performance of the banking and activities
auxiliary to financial services (comprising mostly payments firms) segments.
On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted basis, the sectors as a group shrank
by 5.0 per cent, a reversal from the 5.9 per cent growth in the preceding quarter.

Growth of the remaining group of services sectors (i.e., accommodation & food
services, real estate, administrative & support services and other services
sectors) came in at 2.5 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter, maintaining the
same pace of growth as that recorded in the previous quarter. All sectors within
the group grew during the quarter. In particular, the real estate sector saw robust
growth on the back of an increase in the number of private residential property
transactions. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted basis, this group of
sectors collectively expanded by 1.4 per cent, faster than the 0.3 per cent
expansion in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Revised Economic Outlook for 2025

In February, MTI maintained Singapore’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 at “1.0
to 3.0 per cent”. This had taken into account an expected easing in the overall
growth of Singapore’s key trading partners, including the US and China. At the
same time, MTI had flagged significant uncertainties and downside risks in the
global economy due to the lack of clarity over the policies of the then-new US
administration, as well as ongoing trade frictions.

Since then, the US has imposed a baseline tariff of 10 per cent on all countries
and higher reciprocal tariffs targeted at countries that run large trade surpluses
with the US. Although there has been a temporary 90-day pause in the
implementation of the higher reciprocal tariffs except for China, the tariff war
between the US and China has intensified, with an escalating cycle of tit-for-tat
tariffs being imposed by both sides. Product-specific tariffs implemented by the
US earlier also remain in place and more could be introduced in the coming
months.

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100 High Street, #09-01, The Treasury, Singapore 179434 T (65) 6225 9911 F (65) 6332 7260 www.mti.gov.sg
 PRESS RELEASE
The sweeping tariffs introduced by the US, and the ongoing trade war between
the US and China, are expected to weigh significantly on global trade and global
economic growth. 2 In particular, the growth outlook of the US has deteriorated
as rising import costs are likely to weaken consumption. China’s growth
outlook has also softened as its exports growth is expected to stall amidst the
trade war with the US.

Meanwhile, the growth outlook of economies in our region will be negatively

affected by a fall in external demand due in part to the tariffs’ wider impact on
global trade and growth. Business and consumer sentiments will also be
dampened, thereby crimping domestic consumption and investments in many
economies.

The situation will continue to evolve as the US and other economies weigh their
moves amidst heightened market volatility. Consequently, there are substantial
downside risks in the global economy. First, the spike in uncertainty may lead
to a larger-than-expected pullback in economic activity as businesses and
households adopt a “wait-and-see” approach before making spending decisions.
Second, further tariff measures, including retaliatory tariffs, could lead to a full-
blown global trade war, which will upend global supply chains, raise costs and
lead to a far sharper global economic slowdown. Third, disruptions to the global
disinflation process and rising recession risks in both advanced and emerging
markets could lead to destabilising capital flows that could trigger latent
vulnerabilities in banking and financial systems.

Against this backdrop, MTI’s assessment is that the external demand outlook
for Singapore for the rest of the year has weakened significantly. This has led
to a deterioration in the outlook of outward-oriented sectors in Singapore. In
particular, the manufacturing sector is likely to be negatively affected by
weaker global demand. This, alongside softening global trade, will also weigh
on the growth of the wholesale trade sector. The pullback in global trade will
similarly dampen the growth of the transportation & storage sector through its
drag on demand for shipping and air cargo services.

At the same time, the finance & insurance sector could see weaker trading
activity due to risk-off sentiments that will adversely affect the net fees &
commission incomes of the banking, fund management, forex and security
dealing segments. In addition, the uncertain economic backdrop will likely
dampen firms’ capital investment spending and constrain credit intermediation
activity. Furthermore, the growth of payments firms could moderate in tandem
with tepid business activity and lower consumer spending.
2
Prior to the US’ announcement of a 90-day pause on the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, the
World Trade Organisation (WTO) had revised its merchandise trade growth projection for 2025 sharply
down to -1.0 per cent from 3.0 per cent previously. In addition, the WTO had estimated that
merchandise trade between the US and China could be reduced by as much as 80 per cent.
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100 High Street, #09-01, The Treasury, Singapore 179434 T (65) 6225 9911 F (65) 6332 7260 www.mti.gov.sg
 PRESS RELEASE
Taking these factors as well as the performance of the Singapore economy in
the first quarter into account, MTI has decided to downgrade Singapore’s
GDP growth forecast for 2025 to “0.0 to 2.0 per cent”. Given the significant
downside risks, MTI will continue to closely monitor global and domestic
developments, and make further adjustments to the forecast if necessary.

MTI will release the preliminary GDP estimates for the first quarter of 2025,
including performance by sectors, sources of growth, inflation, employment
and productivity, in the Economic Survey of Singapore in May 2025.

MINISTRY OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY

14 April 2025

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100 High Street, #09-01, The Treasury, Singapore 179434 T (65) 6225 9911 F (65) 6332 7260 www.mti.gov.sg